tv Fast Money CNBC January 3, 2013 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
and maybe extend the rally we have for this week. >> bill? 30 seconds. last but not least what are you looking for tomorrow? >> well, given the decline in the jobless numbers over the last five weeks, we would have expected a payroll number tomorrow of over 200,000. in other words, people being laid off much more slowly, but we think businesses were spooked by the talk of the fiscal cliff and hiring is probably been pulled back, so, we're expecting a number between 150 and 170. we also see an uptick in the unemployment rate from 7.7 to 7.8, because of people getting back into the labor force. looking further ahead, though, we think things are looking up for the rest of the year. >> very good. thank you, gentlemen, for your thoughts on what will be an important day tomorrow. join us tomorrow. we have erskine bowles himself with his first public comments
on the tax deal. thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city, i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. first, credit crunch. is the consumer finally tapped out? we are trading the bill retail moouflers with citi's top analyst. correction protection. should you be bracing for a pull back? why the chargts say buyer beware. and pretty con computers will be able to smell and touch. head of innovation reveals what a smarter planet will look like. first, we have to get to today's action. stocks selling out as the fed remains more provided. so, we ask, is the era of easy money coming to an end? and grasso, i want to go to you first. i want to read the minutes that really caused the agita in the markets. several others thought it would be appropriate to slow or stop
purpose chases well before the end of 2013. well before the end of this year. >> well -- this is the punch bowl, right? this is what everyone has been waiting for and they thought it wasn't coming. they figured it was going to be tied to something else, tied to unemployment, tied to something different than what it is and thought it was unlimited. when we saw the headlines 2:00 p.m. our time we saw the market just sell off. it tried to rally back, sold off a couple of different times and just couldn't gather enough steam behind it. this is what's been driving the market. a long with those worries of debt ceiling coming up, there's a reason to be exiting the marketplace right now. >> and the selloff, you look at gld or tlt, they were down qu k quickly by about 1% shortly after the dollar, of course, bid higher. >> stephen's right, but i wouldn't say -- i was surprised the market held as much as it did. we lost eight s&p points. tomorrow is the day you have the selloff, when you get through a very, maybe, again, the hypothetical here is, you have a great payroll number, a strong payroll number. now the market starts to react
to good data in a way which is obviously very negative, which, you are taking away the punch bowl, which i would argue is the spiked punch bowl. at the end of the day, this is, you know, the fed thinks about every word they say. and this tells you why the fed minutes are so important and, in fact, i think there this was a bit of a trial balloon. what can we get away with? nothing different going on then than i think what they see now and they said the conditions still warrant. there's plenty of data -- i'm sorry, plenty of lines in there, words that said they think the condition still warrant it but they're not equating qe with zerp. there's a differences. >> let's connect the dots. we get a better than expected number, which means the economy is strengthening, so, potentially, that before the end of 2013 prof if i sophesy coulde true -- >> if the employment rate gets to where they want it to, i don't think we're close to getting that point. i think people might sell the market on the back of that.
but they've reached a point of no return in terms of their policy. it's more of a function of people posturing within the fed, but i think they've gotten to a point where they can't stop. i mean, they've taken this to a point where, what point would there be to stop? >> speaking of not being able to stop, your barber. seriously, what happened last night? >> lydia -- executive producer -- >> senior producer. >> she doesn't like my hair. i think it's great. i think it's rocking. >> now i'm off my train of thought. i got it cut because i wanted to put one of those giraffe things on my head. >> ostrich pillow. >> nobody bought me one. >> brian, what do you think -- >> banana studio pick one of those up for you. the problem you have in the market now is, you have every strategist, every portfolio manager assuming the fed is going to keep the medal to the metal forever, including myself. that now has to be repriced into the market. you have a market that's up 50 s and sp handles in two days and you have a debt ceiling debate
coming up. there's not a lot of incentive for somebody to say, i'm going to go all in. i think you could have this trap door effect. whether we make new lows, i'm not sure. but you have a lot of reason to really start buying stocks here and that's what concern mes about it. i entered the day net short in the portfolio. i also think the bond market could be a -- in a little bit of trouble here. >> take a listen to what isi had to say about this move, in the fomc statement. fade the markets that are predicated on a more hawkish fed. keep in mind, at the very same meeting, they added $45 billion a month. it doesn't look in the near term that any of this is coming to an end. you want to anticipate what will happen down the road, so, does that get moved up? >> the s&p is the best leading end kale or the of all the leading indicators. this quantifies everything. this is what traders, if you looked at the chart here, we went from 1465 in the s&p, when we came out with that statement, straight down basically finished off down ten handles to the
lowest point. that's a big move, when the market was just moving sideways all day long, waiting for this number tomorrow. so -- >> there's no real catalyst. >> i agree, but the market has been struggling at 1465 for the last month and a half. this is a level that we've danced at 18 times or so. we were going to struggle there anyway, which i think the market's performance today in the face of a fed that may be testing their, you know, the end of the exit of their accommodation policy, not necessarily zerp. i don't think zero interest rate policy changes. but the buying of the long end, that's something they want to figure out. >> you're 100% right. >> i think it's uglier. >> 1474, 1470, 1465. we crossed over, 1742 that we were worried about. if we cross over 1474, we go to guy's level of 1500 and then it gets interesting. whether it really sucks all that money in and people just have to pay or play. >> might be concerning if you look at the bond market. >> we were talking about that.
>> how high did yields go today? i mean, they reached, i believe, into the 190 territory for at least a brief amount of time. >> right. so, now you are taking away -- last night, we spoke about the federal reserve being one of the buyers of the bond market. you are potentially taking that out of the equation. at least maybe sooner than i thought. i think a lot of people thought at least 14 or 15 is when they would still be in there. it looks like most of the members think by the end of this year they will no longer be being treasuries. couple that with a debt ceiling debate that you're not sure if the come ngress is going to vot. i'm not sure why you want to buy bonds at all. >> the move in the dollar before this fed announcement, before the minutes, this started yesterday morning. the dxy, the dollar index has moved almost 1.5%, very quietly at a time when people supposedly were taking on risk. this is a very important thing. gold is now below the 200 moving day average. you have some key numbers that have breached. treasuries are at yields that they haven't been since april.
you have to be concerned about strong data. they will sell this thing, a better economy will be bad for the market tomorrow. >> so, treasuries will not be a safe haven this time around. it will be different from the debt ceiling -- the downgrade before. >> yeah. if there's anything that changes today, i think it was an incremental change in the fed. but for the treasuries, you really took a lot of support out of the market. >> so, what are you doing tomorrow? >> well, i still think -- >> other than getting a hair cut. >> my hair looks great, by the way. >> i think the pain trade is the upside in the s&p. i'm probably the most bearish person in terms of where the world is headed on the desk. but i'm probably the most bullish in terms of where the s&p going is. i think what happens is, i think you see a ten-year yield either side of two at a certain point. see the s&p top out, early this year, maybe within the next few weeks and i think that's the opportunity to sell stocks, buy back treasuries. >> sell eaer tomorrow. it wasn't selling, it was hedging.
you had a great environment to be putting puts on that were volatility is still very, very cheap. i said this yesterday. if you were selling volatility into yesterday's fall you were stupid and i think today was a chance to not necessarily sell your longs, because a lot of people think, as i think, the world's not a terrible place, i would rather be hedging up. i would rather be putting shorts on for stocks that have moved 15% in three weeks. >> chain stores posting their december sales today, revealing a mixed bag. more than a third of those reporting missed expectations, so, is this a sign that the consumer is, in fact, tapped out? maybe it's not a surprise we saw strength today, given the dismal performance that we saw yesterday. >> and then you have to consider that there's going to be the payroll tax increase. the sales weren't that great at all. november sales were soft. coming into december, they were soft. we're seeing it again being soft. now, people's incomes are going down. i mean, i'm just not really sure again where you're going to get the support. why am i plowing into all these names, macy's, all things looks very weak.
>> let's bring in debra on the fast line. great to speak with you. >> thank you so much. >> what were the standouts to you? >> you know, i think the real standout here today was really costco, from the sales perspective, real strength across the board there. telling you the consumer, very focused on just kind of basic consumables across the board. and nordstrom's had strong sales but this is a retailer that does not typically discounted a they discounted across the board to bring in the sales. definitely something to keep your eye on. >> what's your forecast as consumers are getting the payroll tax hit in their paychecks, you know, this first week of january? >> got to tell you, the retailers are more concerned than i would have thought they would have been. you know, i think they're worried about traffic. i think they're worried absentment. and i think they're worried that they all discounted very heavily and the consumer is going to be looking for a deal. and the deems aren't going to
keep coming and everyone is going to have less money. >> deb, it's guy, how are you? family dollar is the one that stuck out to me. that stock had been selling off and then today it just got taken out to the wood shed. the margins not great. eps not great. inventory up. is it a level now where you'd start to dip your toe or more room on the down side? >> i don't think they communicated great. they had a great top line number and i think the concern here was margins across the board. what happened is, you know, their strategies is working, a comp of 6.6, consensus was 5.1. gross margins deteriorated 112 basis points and that was all because they are selling more consumables. the big question here is, they're selling -- their big new initiative is tobacco and what is that going to do longer term to margins? is it really going to harm them or is it going to worm and bring in my discretionary sales?
it's a question mark and management did not answer those questions. >> what do i do with costco here? do i buy this stock? i owned it for the special dividend. i love the company. i've been a fan of the company. i sold out of it when i thought the stock was going to get a chunk taken out. do i go here or do i go target here with the payroll tax? >> so, costco, small business owners, the one very interesting with costco and the real change in their strategy is twofold. one, more smaller markets where they haven't bfrn before. they are getting much greater signups and that goes straight to the bottom line. second part is going more internationally and that's much higher margin, because there's not competition. my bet would be on costco. >> deborah, great to speak with you. >> thanks, happy new year. >> tim, in the retail space, your name? >> the names i'm worried about, things like target, people have
been looking at as defensive here and target had some issues with how they handled their markdowns. they marked down kind of a luxury line they were pitching, actually before christmas, then marked it down after christmas and were cutting their margins so they are losing money. it's the places where people have been defensive. i liked walmart going into the holiday season and they did not perform in a way that people expected them to. they were out there early with a lot of their promotions, so, a lot of these stocks which have be been defensive are not performing. >> is the consumer tapped out? >> yes. >> out? >> i'm a big believer the consumer is going to have a lot of obstacles in this coming year, but look at mastercard and vi visa. the way they spend is not tapped out. new all-time highs, both of them. >> all right, let's move on. the warning sign that says a huge correction could be in store for stocks. bank of america is cheque the charts to get you ready for what is ahead. and later, five innovations
welcome back to "fast money." a bit of a sell off in the home builders today, after the december fed meeting minutes were released. the minutes showing that policy makers supported the fed's plan to buy bonds but they differed on duration. concern about qe and interest rates. kb home was down the most of the day. lennar was bucking the trend a bill, closing above the flat line. mech list is a? >> jackie, thank you. wasn't just the home builders that sold off, but the broader market, as well. so, does the move signal the start of a bigger correction?
let's check the starts with mary anne bartels at bank of america merrill lynch. happy new year to you. >> thank you for having me in today. >> tell you what you see. >> right now, the s&p is approaching the 1500 area. we are starting to get into the 2008 and 2009 range. we were bullish looking for a year-end rally, which worked out really well. we still think january can rally a little bit now. we're concerned about the month of february. and as we move into the month of february, we're concerned you can get a 10%, 15% correction. >> what would make you think that correction is actually coming? >> well, one of the things that we're monitoring is the vix. and that still remains really low. it tried to move higher, it's back down into the 14 range. so, we think the vix is signaling somewhere in 2013 we're going to see volatility. we've actually even stated the vix could go up to 40. we also have at our firm global
financial stress index which is the lowest weevil seen since 2007. in addition, it's the fourth year, and typically in the four-year cycle, we generally get a bear market, unfortunately, that's not our base case, but we do think you can get a deep correction in 2013. but the important part is, we think that would be the last big drop in the market, since the trading range that we've been in since 2000. >> so, i'm sort of in your camp, i think it's going to 1520, 1550, the 2000 high. when you say deep correction, 10%, 15%, i understand. is there a chance for a 20%, 30% move in the next nine months? >> there is a possibility that we have a -- not a recession, a correction, that a bear market, bear market is 20%. i don't think it's 30%. it could be 20% to 25%. i would be surprised if it is deeper than that. we have very little leverage.
valuations are not stressed. so, i think that's going to put a floor on the markets. >> if we bring back that s&p chart, i think a lot of people -- brian and i have seen this chart over the last 15 years of the s&p, where effectively we've set up this triple top. you have '99, 2007 and the current chart. you have these three titans here where, what does it take to break out? what level would you, as a technical analyst say, we have broken out and we've charted new territory, because, to me, this price action for the last month and a half, we've had 15 to 18 times where we can't get through the 65, 70 level on the s&p. >> that's a terrific question. what we'd have to do is actually break out to all-time new highs, so, you probably be closer to the 1600 range. you'd have to get volume confirm. we'd also have to get the transports to break out to an all-time high and i'd like to see the advance decline line be able to break and hold a new high. we did see towards the end of the year, the advance decline line, stocks only break to a no high but it hasn't been able to
hold it. so, we'd have to get full technical confirmation, i'm just not in the camp that i think we get this this year. maybe 2014. >> with all a the potential volatility ahead, what is your top sector for 2013? >> it's going to be health care. so, we brought the chart. what's really powerful about this chart is, it's a 13-year trading range. and we're at all-time new highs. the group in here that we really like are the pharmaceuticals, which have really good dividends. and this kind of plays into your mega-cap thing. we think that the s&p 100 will continue to do well in 2013. it sold off towards the end of '12, but we still think it's in the early stages of a bull market. those are the type of stocks we look to buy. >> mary ann, thank you. >> thank you. >> beeks, you know what is concerning about what mary anne is saying technically speaking, it coen insides with the fundamentals is that february is going to be a very rough time when it comes to sequester and
the debt ceiling debate. >> one more thing of a reason why you don't necessarily want to be all in on equities here. you are seeing that potentially a triple top. some people are saying it's something even more than that. and if you have a consumer who is stretched, if you look at consumer credit, we talk a little bit about leverage, that is at an all-time high. 10% above the 2007 highs. so, the consumer now needs to deleverage. you certainly could see something like a 20% or 30% correction over the next year. i wouldn't be surprised to see that at all. >> plus, also, with the debt ceiling, you have to look at the pharmaceutical space. the whole health care space. i sold my aetna. you don't know where the payoff ratios are going to be. we have no idea if or where they are going to cut. i'm looking for a re-entry. think you have to let the space breathe. you remember one of my predictions, i thought the market would sell off 10% in the first quarter. >> i do remember. thank you for reminding us. let's hit pops and drops.
drop for the gold miners etx. tim? >> the gdx also may have a tough first quarter if you continue to see this move down in gold, though i don't think you should be trading these in lock step. we sold some this morning, not enough. these are trades, not stocks to own. >> family dollar, a drop, the move 13%. guy? >> heard debbie and i just speaking about that. i think you can trade it against the march low, which was 53. it's not going to be a one-day event. probably test tomorrow. big volume day today. probably see it again tomorrow. you trade it against a 53 top. >> buffalo wild wings, a pop, beekers. >> big move today. 5% stake, i believe it was. trading within the 70 to 77 range. up at these levels, i think you sell out. >> what are you laughing about? >> i thought about -- you said, give it to b.k., which, i don't know why. >> he's not afraid of a wing or two. >> i love wings. >> who doesn't like wings? >> come on.
pop for solar up 8%. mike? >> s&p cap upgrading them to a sell with a $26 price target. but lazard did put a buyout with a $50 price target and solar world thinks that eu is going to announce some kind of ant anti-dumping tariffs on solar in april or may this year. that said, this is a volatile stock. if you wanted to own it, you could wait for it to come back a bit. >> drop for well point, down 3%. grasso? >> i would wait. i would give yourself at least a month, just to see how this whole sector shakes out because i'm not sure what those cuts are going to look like. >> we have a pop here for elephants. >> sure. >> a pack of super sized super models stampeded down the run way during a beauty pageant in nepal. showing off their trunks to their tails. the contestants were judged on looks, temperament and personality. other elephant events included races, and a spirited game of soccer. >> almost like the elephant --
no, i'm not going to do it. >> don't. >> not going to do it on tv. >> sorry. >> i don't know where you're going. looks like fun, right? >> great time. i've been -- been to nepal. >> eddie murphy said it in "the golden child." what do you mean, i have not? i'll bring my passport, you jerk. ill love nepal. >> when was the last time you were at an elephant soccer game? >> march '97. >> that's offseason for elephant soccer. >> wow. >> not back then. coming up, it's a street fight of the highest order. grasso and tim square off to set the record straight only one auto stock. and still to come, it's a run of our trade of the day for 2013. one of our traders has drilled up a play. stay tuned to find out if he's betting along with the bulls or fading this rally. stay tuned. this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan.
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out. for the bulls, we've got tim. and for the bears, steve grasso. tim, take it away. >> well, to me, ford, first of all, is a valuation play and a company that's turned around their business. they have not fallen vick time to having to discount their way into car sales. as we look to next year, we're expecting, we saw it in todays sales that came out for the u.s. auto industry, ford beat them a. at the end of the day, 15.1 million cars will be sold next year and ford is the most efficient of all the players. we talk about the recovery in the housing industry, ford is your housing proxy stock. we talked about yesterday, that u.s. steel was hinged to the auto sector, well, ford is hinged to the housing sector. the f-150 really is your proxy for what's going on in the housing sector. if this is strong, this is an office on wheels for most contractors. when it comes down to valuation, ford is not expensive. seven times earnings in the next year. if you look out to '14, five and a half times. could be deep value at these
sales points. i think ford is a great place to play, because one, it's a long-term structural hold. this is a company that has tu turned around their business and north american business is the envy -- >> taking a page out of my book. he just doesn't stop talking. >> the more he talks, the more right he is. >> this is not your stair owe typical street fight because i love ford. >> what? >> i loved it. loved. i owned it sub-ten. sold it on monday. sold it a little early here, but for me, it's a little extended. so, it's above -- 20% above its 50-day moving average. when it topped out in january of '11, only 13% above its 50-day moving average. i'm looking for a pull back. sub 13, nothing crazy. maybe around the $12 mark. >> are we concerned, though, in terms of january sales, february sales, march sales, december is a strong time for sales. coming in strong, not entirely surprised. ford economist on the conference call this afternoon said there are several fiscal matters that
remain unsolved and will weigh on consumer confidence at this point. >> they have to say that. especially when north america dshlg north america for them in the third quarter was what killed it. it cracked these guys up. the margins were 6.3%, people expected 5.5%. 2.3% versus 1.8%. the u.s. has been their livelihood, their life blood and they have to be conservative about the things we're all worried and and we've talked about in the show. that, to me, is just an appropriate, you know, forecast, from a company, you know, leader. >> let's -- >> quick. >> one last thing. >> we have to make the call, too. >> everybody knows i love the seas seasonality trade here. the five-year average for the month of april for ford is up 33%. so, if you want to look at a month that just kicks butt, it's april. >> okay. make the call, beeks. >> i'm going to go with grasso here. >> two nights in a row, buddy. we're going outside. you and your wings, man. i tell you what. >> consistent. >> wingman. >> anyway -- >>ry du rrying dek inin ining -.
>> i love the baby crying. >> that's so good. that is so good. >> in the beginning of the segment, we talked about the great news that comes out and the one thing b.k. doesn't like to do is buy when there's no more catalysts out there. we're talking about the consumer being tapped out. i'm a seller of ford. >> you have to qualify the time of the trade. we're talking about ford in terms of a structure alibi or ford right here and now on the chart? >> so, now -- you guys basically agree? that's no fun. >> saying to sell. ford has turned their business around and on valuation, is fundamentally a buy. >> where are you on steel, though? >> we have to do this for our viewers. at the end of the day, you have to qualify if you are talking about a stock for a long or median term -- >> we have to surround the trade. >> steve surrounding the trade like nobody's business. >> smart statement. >> almost surprised i didn't get the baby crying again. >> i know we have to go, but office on wheels? that's genius. >> thank you. >> no, serious.
>> well, they should hire me. >> good thinking. mike noticed some activity in gm. mike? >> yeah, i mean, one of the things about all the you a tomes is these are highly cyclical businesses. and obviously this is one of those situations, you have to look at their results over a longer period of time. somebody was doing that in general motors. another stock that hit a 52-week high today. they were buying the march 32 calls, paying 70 cents. that is seeing potentially as much as 9% upside. but this is spending 2.3% of the stock price. that's better than facing the 15% downside risk if the stock traded back down to 25 level. >> get this. your five senses are in for a huge makeover. coming up next, they're the five innovations that will revolutionize the way you see, touch and even smell. ibm's chief innovation officer is revealing the next big things to watch for in tech, so, stick with us. ♪
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years. it is up 19% from a year ago. so, guy, hold 'em or fold 'em? >> i hate to say this, but you still have to hold these guys. tim's point from earlier in the show, i thought the tape behaved very well today, especially the transports which completely outperformed. union pacific, i still like. hold 'em. >> next up, have a la valero, j from a year ago. grasso? >> we mentioned that year end, you wanted to be exiting a lot of these refiner trades because portfolio managers wanted to show them on the books because they had an incredible run. they had to be paid, basically to own them and wanted to show their shareholders they still own these names. so, i foresaw a little bit of pressure being put on the refiner space. now, you're looking at rig, bp, apc, where the money is going. i would fold it. >> very good. what an improvement from yesterday. >> emphatic closure there. >> you got it wrong. >> practice. >> apparently. lennar rises to its highest
levels since 2007. it's up 100%. so, beeks? >> i think you fold these here. >> nice. >> terrible price action. terrible price action. >> nice. >> you got it wrong, too. >> i guess i did. i don't see the little x. but today, we had terrible price action. they've been on a tear, up 100% over the last year. better than they did when we had the last home building boom. if rates are going up, it's going to hurt the home builders. take your profits in this and fold them. >> maybe it will get people to buy homes because it gets them off the fence. >> one last spurt, but i mean, that's about it. so, i like to get ahold of it and fold them. >> very good. all right, every want to feel the fabric of the shirt you're going to buy on online? how about hearing what dogs hear? seriously? >> i hope not. >> you may not have to wait much longer. our next guest says machines will start to think. and he's bringing us five ways that may happen. with more on the innovations that will make the world a smarter place within the next five years is bernie miler son,
chief innovation officer at ibm. pleasure to have you with us. >> nice to be here. >> this is all about bringing the senses to the computer experience. >> we've been doing the same things for 40 years. you make chiple smaller, faster, cheaper. what happens when that stops? you better have a new paradigm. if you do cognitive computing like a human does it, humans are pretty damn good. they competed on "jeopardy." we beat them but we had 80,000, they had 20. there's a lot of efficiency to have. if a computer could interact like we do, sense, sight, sound, smell, taste, touch, you could do amazing things. so, yes, it is basic little getting the same inputs you have, but helping you by interpreting them. >> how close are we? >> five in five, and the reason we call this, certainly in the next five years we'll get there. we have primitive versions. we have biohazard dretectors hee
in new york city. but imagine if you could sense every conceivable smell. that would mean if you sneezed and this thing picked up the fact that, son of a gun, there's the presence of bacterium, hey, by the way, unless you want to be incredibly sick, go see a doctor tomorrow. >> this is mostly for commercial applications? because if it were for us we would need to buy whole new computers and they would have to be invented, as well. >> actually, no. here's the good news. with all the band width out there, you only need a device with a sensor. it can do it just essentially instantly. so, essentially, what happens is, your hand set becomes the sensor. it can have all of these senses available and if it gets into a crunch, it ships the data elsewhere. it will be something that consumers will have. >> so, what about the reverse? let's say emitting a smell, if you are reading a magazine or something? do you have that now? >> is that something you're looking for, brian? >> i mean, listen. you never know. >> i actually think b.k. just e
milted a smell. >> that's funny. >> 100-volt object in 220-volt outlet, you have a smell. but that's not what you're talking about. but ultimately, input is pretty tough. output is real tough. there's no reason you can't do it. you have 3d printing today. if you really think about it, it's an output of a texture. it's coming. consumer level. there's no question. >> and in terms of, is this going to be the next big wave of computing that will drive the next devices that ibm will sell? is this going to be a big market? >> cognitive computing will drive a large part of it. we're working with guys with our watson system, which is really early variant thereof, so, this is something that will be common over time and can have tremendous capabilities. after all, the humans, like i said in "jeopardy, kws had a 4,000 deficit in power and did
well. yeah, it oos something that will become major over time. >> what is the one industry, it's a slam dunk to use c cognitive computing? >> i think up front in medical. if you actually look at that today, there's a tremendous uptick. it's been deployed. it's not hypothetical. there, it's going to start, if you have somebody that comes in with a disease that the doctor's never seen and it's one in a million, one of these orphan diseases, if there are only 50 cases a year, good luck finding a physician that would know about it. one of our systems wouldn't even hiccup. that's the key. >> bernie, thank you for coming by and sharing this with us. bernie moo bernie, fascinating stuff. not as creepy as you might this. >> no, it is. >> practical applications, though. >> me mentihe mentioned the 3d and two companies that live in that world. 3d systems, ddd, that we've actually, i think, have had the ceo of the show. that stock has been on a tear and 40% short interest, i think. that's one to take a look at. just for a short squeeze along. the other is stratis.
that valuation is a little bit richer. that stock has moved pretty high, as well. if you want to play one of them, i think 3d for the short covering rally. >> how about you, beeks, or grasso? >> i would go more into the inf infrastructure, cisco, that type of thing. certainly, you do have the band width now, but as you get this, you're going to need a lot more bandwidth, more wires in the warm. i would go with cisco. let's go to jane wells for a look at what's coming up in the west coast wrap. jane? >> hey, we're going to talk about a show down careen billionaire bffs. when twitter might go public. and which silicon valley ceo is laughing like nelson munts. we'll have that after the break. she knows you like no one else.
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welcome back to "fast money." the u.s. dollar index strengthening today after the release of the latest fomc minutes. will the greenback continue to get stronger? how should you trade it ahead of tomorrow's jobs report? let's bring in amelia bourdeau. and, i guess, key to this is what you think the jobs number will be and if it's going to be
better than consensus. >> well, right. consensus is 150,000. i think it will be on expectations. so, i think that will mean that this is the chance to buy the dip in the australian dollar. so, what i think will happen tomorrow, will get a pretty good number on consensus, as i mentioned, and that will give u.s. equities a lift and that will take aussie dollar up with it. so, i would like to enter a long as tee trade. it's trading now about $104.60. i know the chart says $104.80, but it sunk a little lower so, you want to enter there. you want to target $106.20 and going to put a stop down at 103.80 $103.80. this is a play on tomorrow's payroll number. >> and just quickly, amelia, how seriously did currency traders take the fomc minutes? >> well, they took it very seriously and, of course, you did see the reaction in the dollar index today.
the dollar strengthening markedly when those headlines rolled. but however, i think we need more data in order to see if that's going to come to pass, meaning if they are going to stop asset purr chases at the end of 2013. what that means in term of payroll, instead of receiving 150,000 on the number, i don't think that's strong enough. they need to see 300,000 on the number. if it came 300,000 on the number, that's when pay roms are good enough basically to strengthen the dollar and, you know, have the market begin to price in the end of asset purchases. >> got it. amel amelia, see you tomorrow. from mobile devices to medical marijuana, we've got you covered in the west coast wrap. let's go to jane wells in l.a. >> hey. we start in vegas, baby, where wynn resorts has finally set a special shareholder meeting, february 22nd. the man who held ped steve wynn create the company is being kicked out and had his shares revoked at a steep discount as these two former bffs sue each
other over what calls suspicious activity by the other. bottom line, if past performance is any guarantee of future results, wynn usually wins. >> there's a restaurant that's named after this man, and you have to wonder what will happen to the restaurant, as well. >> they changed the name. >> they did? >> all right. >> buffalo wild wings now. >> grasso, what's the trade here? >> i'm a big fan of steve wynn. incredible move. i wasn't owner of the stock. i sold out of it. made some money but i left a lot on the table. i sold it on monday, to try to lighten up ahead of the fiscal cliff dealings. it went from 110 to 120. i would wait for 50% retracement, wait for $115. >> all right jane? >> next, here is what meg whitman is saying right now. ha-ha. that's my nelson muntz imitation. >> nice. >> we were going to use the real one but we were afraid of getting sued. hewlett-packard has gone from worst to first. up over 6% in 2013.
bull before you can print that, "the wall street journal" reports that hp may be boosting by selling receivables to third parties to collect on those bills, reporting their cash usually than it would normally do, means shares may not be as cheap as they seem, melissa. >> beeks, what's the trade here in trash to treasure? wearound. >> that's probably, everybody thought you've got all the bad news out, you flush the bad news out here. i'm not sure that that's enough to say that hue let pack around is going to go up and have a multiyear trend. in fact, i don't think it's going to. i liked it for a trade. i would get out of it here. i think maybe on a pull-back, if you believe meg whitman over the next five to ten years can turn this around and you've got some patience, then you can buy. >> give to ten years of patience. that's a lot of patience. this is "fast money," beeks, that's not the kind of patience we have. jane? >> finally, twitter will go public. but not this year. according to business insider greencrest capital, predicts twitter will go public in 2014
and currently valued at $11 billion. that's about one-sixth of facebook's market cap. but which of the two social network titans is most vapid? compare this facebook posting, quote, cat peed on the rug again. >> guy, is that you? >> with this actual tweet. this actual tweet, my girl gave me an ulta mate him. i don't know what is worse. >> you know me, i'm mr. technology. i'm mr. 24th century. i think twitter is fantastic. i think -- i've said it two years ago, a year ago, apple should buy twitter, $14 billion, then i'd get long apple. i'm a huge twitter guy. if you got on twitter, little @melissalee, with a blue check like jane has, forget about it. >> change your life. change your life. my husband calls it my world of imaginary friends. >> you should -- everybody
should foul local her. just saying. >> yeah. >> all right, jane. thank you. jane wells from l.a. all right. coming up next, is it finally time to reveal our trade of the day? tim seymour will unlock the vault and reveal what is inside. that's next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you should've seen me today. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 when the spx crossed above its 50-day moving average, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i saw the trend. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it looked really strong.
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all right, identityt's time. what's in the safe, tim? >> let's open up the vault and find and oily wet company called transocean. big news today, it was announced they are reached a settlement with the u.s. justice department, criminal charges attached, but they are paying $1.4 billion for their involvement for the deep horizon accident, bp accident. this was much, much better than a lot of people priced in. their provisions were over $2 billion. so, when this news hit, this was a trigger to buy. not to try to get this just in time as the stock was rising. if you bought it, as the news hit the tape, you did get a chance to get a little of a burst. this is a rerating for this company. this has been hanging over the stock. they have a big issue down in brazil where effectively they've been, for now, told, you are out
of the country in 30 days. they have to work this out because ultimately this is high speck drilling, this is the deep water salt basin, which is a big part of the profit ability of this company. but this is very cheap. this is a company that was being held back by this. you want to buy. >> walk me through, b.k., the thinking that goes behind a stock up 6% on an event. >> it's a game-changing event for the company. that's why you do it here. i personally probably wait just to see on a pull back, 50 is your resistance. but it is a game-changing event. you have to rerate the whole company. i like it here. mable on a pull back. it's no buffalo wild wings, but -- >> nothing is, really. >> what is? >> few are. and to build -- things can overshoot. we've seen it happen all the time. things overshoot to the down side and upside. it is a game changer, so, yeah -- i hate to do it, typically, moves like this, but i'm with sort of tim and beeks on this one. >> all right, coming up next hour on "mad money," cramer is