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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  January 28, 2013 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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trade. let's kick off monday with "squawk on the street." we had quite a show on friday between bill akman and carl icahn. >> the quintessential example on wall street if you want a friend, get a dog. >> brings us to this morning squa "squawk on the street," after that showdown, what do they do for an encore. >> revival of the original play, "the sunshine boys." loved the i can-akman dispute.
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better than reality shows. it cannot be topped. find two cnbc guys each week and start cnbc fight club. >> caterpillar up almost two bucks despite problems in accounting in china and inventory in declining production rates, cat is one of the leaders on the dow today. back to "fast money" halftime at hq. carl, thanks so much. welcome to the "halftime report," four hours to go. dow at 1500. here's what we're following at halftime. war and remembrance. >> i appreciate, bill, you called me a great investor. i thank you for that. unfortunately i can't say the same for you. this is not an honest guy that
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keeps his word and takes advantage of little people? >> what does the icahn/akman battle say about your money and should you follow their lead? at the core, what's driving apple shares down and when is it okay to get in? first top story, the rally, the dow on track for next january, if it really is 14,000, what are the plays you need to make right now? we are trading the action. what is it, joe? where should you be in the market right now? >> let me tell you what i'm doing today. more importantly, it has to be looking forward. we've gotten a lift from earnings, surprise to the upside better than anticipated. i'm looking forward to friday. i think for one of the very first times in recent memory, we need a better than expected labor report. in advance of that, i don't think i will get it, i am taking length i have in american
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express and conk arning and mor stanley, i am taking that in with a disappointing report on friday. >> and claims were sharp. >> you have to have that significant improvement in labor. you have to see a private payroll figure close to 200,000, a headline figure close to 200,000. i don't think we will see it. >> what's the scoop today? >> the market deserves better from the dow. the action today is what you want to see if you want to be constructive for 2013. there's no reason any should be rooting for a breakout for new highs today and tomorrow and the next day. let things settle down. we've gotten to a too high a start. everything underneath the surface very positive and so far no alarm bells. >> stephanie, are we overbought? >> we could be, taking money off
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places like lamb research, up for the year. and you have to still take gains. i think the direction of the market is higher because the data continues to be impressive. joe was talking about jobs on friday. i'm looking at durable goods today. the month over month wasn't great, year-over-year was. you just don't have supply. you had china, numbers over the weekend, industrial profits up 17%, very impressive. i think earnings can continue to work higher over time. >> to the global story, anthony, you are just back from davos and you talked to a lot of people with a lot of money and vision globally from the market standpoint. >> the question is, do you do what they said to do or exactly the opposite. in 2009, january, decidedly bearish at the world economic forum, a great opportunity to
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buy stocks. people right now are constructive on the euro and stabilization of euro and constructive on possible growth. the name of the event was dynamic resilience, talks about the world recovering. i think these guys are going to be right, we will probably have a good stock market. this has been a well orchestrated rally, induced by central banks, my honest belief. if you get a buzz out of the federal reserve they say we will pull back a bit, the market will crack. >> any whiff or that, what happened in the month or so in the minutes spooked the market. >> a couple things going on. good fundamentals, accomodative fed. in the wave of a secular bull market. the good news is out-weighing the bad news right now and any slight bad news will trip up the market in the short term. it needs to be cautious here. >> let's bring up david beanco,
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chief equity strategist. welcome back to halftime. >> hello. good to see you. >> 1600 was the target used. anthony talked about resilient and talked about it in davos and could explain the stock marketed. >> resilience and since the recovery and recession we've seen terrific resilience in earnings and we're just beginning to get paid for that. i think we'll take the s&p to 1600 by year end. >> where do you want to be? if we believe you, where do you want to invest your money? >> financials, technology, industrials. we've been very bullish and the industrials still like it. opportunity to get into this market, put more money to work.
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technology, that sector is under-performed since mid-november the start of this year, entirely from apple. what's being overlooked and o r overshadowed by apple in tech space is business spending exposed companies and where i think you will see improving fundamentals and pes. >> we haven't seen a robust story. when do you think we will see that acceleration? >> 2012, a lean year for the world economy, u.s. economy. during 2012, we saw something that doesn't happen outside of recessions. we saw business spending go flat, u.s. exports go flat. sectors like technology and industrials really sensitive to exports, especially business spending. i expect business spending to accelerate through 2013 drive ing growth with business is in tact. >> david, it's josh brown. for most of 2012 and 2012, the market was characterized by this risk off-risk on regime.
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it didn't matter what stocks you picked, a question when you were in the market and weren't. correlation collapsed and all of a sudden there's value in picking good stocks and bad stocks. do you think that's something we will see through the course of the year and if so, what's the best way to express that as portfolio manager? >> a good question. is complacency setting in but i don't think so given the valuation and earnings. i wouldn't focus on getting tactical calls right this year. i don't think we will have a big pull back in the market. i think people should get in the market, focus on stock picking, focus on stock picking allocation. we like the technology. >> what is it you expect on wednesday that the result will be on the fixed income market from what we hear from the federal reserve. will the continuance of
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out-flows from fixed income continue after the statement is released? >> we don't see signs of a great rotation in progress. money is not abandoning the fixed income funds. money is still flowing into the fixed income funds. true equities are beginning to get some flows. my the ssis does not rest on qe forever, our thesis rests on the world economy react sell rating and earnings being generated by s&p, being deployed for dividend growth and strong purchase activity representing stronger inflows into the equity market more than they ever did during the 1990s. our point is the fed is accomodative. as long as we see fiscal responsibility the fed and bond market is aecccomodative. our thesis rests on world growth despite drags in 2013.
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>> good stuff, good to talk to you. david bianco. anthony, bond bubble. i would manage some of the smartest investors in the world have their eyes tuned to the bond market trying to decide if it's a bubble or not and their view and whether to rotate from treasuries to stocks. >> if you pulled 20 of the smartest people they would say we're in bond bubbles. look what happens. the market stays in a bubble longer than you can stay solvent. if you came out of the fed or board of governors meeting in davo davos, a clear coordinated signal from central banks they will buy assets continually. who wants to go against that. you can see the earnings yield on stocks and where the interest rates are in the overall sovereign debt world. that spread that become very attractive. dan lopes said in a private
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board of governors meeting this year will be the year you see a securities analysis factor and in the past two years, what's kw gone on with the fed and central banks. >> there will be a press conference in just about an hour from now. what do know? >> herbal life stock has been very active since this has gone out. the source close to the investigation tells cnbc this has nothing to do with herbal life. if you look at the announcement, it's held in conjunction with the kentucky general's office. herbal life is based in las vegas. none of the companies are based in kentucky. i would say you need to take a look at this and watch it, whatever company it is, most likely a smaller private company, you have to look at what their compensation plans
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are, how they might correlate to some of the public companies in the space. if you look at the way this stock traded, it is a preview what you could expect if there were issues with publicly traded multilevel marketing companies if something came out significan significant. >> two things from this. shows how sensitive herbal life is to any comments. >> and these people don't know anything about the fundamentals. >> that takes you back to this friday conversation had on this network been bill akman and carl icahn, herbal life was at the crux, a short squeeze, who's long and who did what when. >> when you look at the conversation you had you handled so fabulously, you were so good. one guy trying to talk about the facts of the fundamentals of the story and the other guy basically talking about a squeeze. that's where it comes down to.
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forgets northeast th it forgets significant issues on my documentary, the american dream. >> you're saying this press conference set at thet top of the hour 1:00 in kentucky not related to herbal life. you can see the sensitivity of the movement. >> as soon as i know what company this is, i will go to the website and see how it relates potentially to others in space. >> i want a quick comment. >> like russian roulette, the perils of being invested in any stock with any name subject to gyrations with a name like this. >> this makes you pine for an index fund. the risk in either direction could be very large. >> not trading on fundamentals. you can't trade as investor long term or short term, very difficult to do that.
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>> this could free the ftc up to look at other companies. >> we'll see what happens at the top of the hour about 1 o'clock. thanks to you. looking at stocks that may more than double in three months? we'll break it down. is samsung the new cool? and is yahoo! ceo, marissa mayer up 35%. and what the shareholder is bidding on those numbers. but we can still help you see your big picture. with the fidelity guided portfolio summary, you choose which accounts to track and use fidelity's analytics to spot trends, gain insights, and figure out what you want to do next. all in one place. i'm meredith stoddard and i helped create the fidelity guided portfolio summary.
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welcome back to the "halftime report." we're looking at social media names. facebook reports wednesday. they had a nice upgrade by raymond james today and linked in with a new high. you add the twitter investment of $9 billion, all seeing green arrows and even zynga, up 9 1/4%. >> joe, facebook slow creep towards 38. that's the benchmark, as sad as it is, that's become the benchmark thus far. >> it is. the institutional community, seeing a lot of capital and technology. you look what the market is pricing in, looks like the 34
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strike is active and 10% move and where it's going. here's another, has apple lost its mojo, according to an article, apple may be losing the coolness battle to samsung but baron says apple's glory days are far from over. >> first, apple has not lost their mojo. >> they lost something. >> they did. they lost steve jobs and with it a cult following behind the stock and innovation. they can have the greatest innovators in this world and lost the bully pulpit of innovation and why you're seeing compression of the multiple. you ask any 16-year-old girl in the northeast like my daughter amelia, it has not lost its mojo. it's an attractive buy. look at its balance sheet. if you're a value buyer, forget where it traded, look at the opportunity going forward.
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>> you used the word "value" and have to take into consideration whether the class of shareholders is slowly changing from growth to value investors. >> no question. as the dividend goes up so will the yield factors. >> keep in fact johnnie is still there, the designer behind the cool products. look at the r&d budget that spiked higher than any point and points to future coolness fac r factors. not as if they ceded this territory and said, go ahead, do whatever you want. i think it's too early to count them out. >> investors now getting into apple, i think the investors are leaving apple and going to facebook and linked in and amazon. it's a clear rotation. i agree it's a value story, until you get clarification on the gross margin side, it could
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stay still for a period of time. >> because of the excess liquidity flying into facebook, twitter, linked in, have excessive pes, any smart long term manager would be short on valuation and why they're locked in and can't do well in a market environment like this. >> this has become the apple story a show me story. it used to be a benefit of the doubt story. it's completely changed. >> the problem, too, i think you have to look at what management's response has been to not only deterioration, stock, products, questions around it. i think tim cook has not done a good job addressing that. i will tell you this. to everyone's point, i actually think you will see money rotate back into apple if the overall market does see a little bit of
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correction almost as a defensive technology. >> shares of yahoo! up 30% since ceo marissa mayer took the rains. what do shareholders want to hear? good to have you here. give me your thoughts on apple and the problem. >> they're reacting now, before they were innovating and reacting to what other companies were doing an unusual position and remains a large holder in our fund. the stock is cheaply valued. this is teresting. they lost jobs and questioning whether the innovation gene within apple may be lost for good. cheap iphone, bigger screen, a reactionary environment. >> for lack of saying are you putting your money where your mouth is?
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buying stock where it's pulled back to? >> fortunately, apple has been one of our best investments and owned it $7 pre-split and selling it all the way up. we can't add to it. no question about it, selling in hindsight, we should have done more trimming. >> let's turn our attention to yahoo!. the stock has had a great run since almost the minute it hit the why marissa mayer was going to run this company. justice or not? all style behind the move. >> there are things they're doing outside coria hoo, monetizing the ali baba state more effectively and not so specific. in terms of core yahoo! nothing is justified there for the stock move. i think the performance has been largely due to the performance of ali baba. >> how much of the appreciation
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is due to the buy back and 60% has not been implemented. >> they have a ton of cash and strongly cash positive and that has a large impact on the stock. this is one of the first quarters coming into the yahoo! numbers people may be expecting a little bit more. >> the stock move raises the bar, better come with something. >> what's the most aggressive thing marissa, the stock has had a huge change up as though changes are afoot. what is something big and bold yahoo! could do to announce itself to the stock market again. >> i don't want to see that. yahoo! is fundamentally challenged. it is trading at maybe four times operating cash flow, when you take out the cash and investments in the company.
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they still have one of the largest traffic areas of the world with business and finance but fundamentally challenged and will probably lose some shares. obviously, the key is mobile, she talked about it a lot. they don't have hardware or an operating system. it will be tough for them to be wholly relevant in that space. if you see something, it's there. >> it will be a closely watched earnings report. thanks. theirs and earnings up 130%. is there another company in that space poised for a similar run? what are you watching? >> interesting all the traders i talked with are looking at nokia, a hopeless story behind in terms of market share, launched a new phone and all of a sudden there's a lot of interest in the company again. >> until they pull the dividend
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away. >> no. actually the reaction to the dividend was positive. why would you want a company this challenge d. this is a $5 million cash position. you look at the stock option, early reminiscent we saw with rimm. it broke with $2 and doubled back to 4 where it sets last week. they reported last week, and up almost every category. no one was expecting it. i think the stock would have gone up more if they hadn't cut the dividend. if there was a stock that would shock people being relevant again, it would be nokia. when people snicker at a company mentioned, that's when you get people interested. there were huge differences and i have no idea whether the turn around will continue. buzz-wise, anthony you are
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hi. welcome back to mathematicck to.
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time for the top trades to buy. ch chipotle mexican. >> this is giving giveback from a couple weeks ago. i think this company has a hard time ahead of it seeing decelerating comps. 28 times earnings. i know they're investing heavily in the business and trying to drive traffic. that's great. that 28 multiple is a little much for me. >> what's going on with consol energy, down today. >> it is. they pre-announced guidance for production in coal last week, trouble spot one and trouble spot two, natural gas prices. trading down $31. i say you buy it. the production in natural gas will take hold in 2013 and like this company for the blend of coal and natural gas. >> and agrium.
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>> this is interesting. i heard the case laid out by jana partners, in the stock last fall i believe. the potential is discussed to split the company up between retail and commercial divisions and management has to make the case to leave it where it is and this helps bolster that. >> yield on 10 year notarizine >> yield on 10 year notarizin r since last april. >> that's right. the sell-off in bonds coming as investors poured $55 billion in equity funds. is the sell-off in the bond market just the start or more pain to common. anthony is at the nymex in new york. let's start with you. what's fueling off the sell-off in treasuries? >> exactly like you said.
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investors are seeing a 6 perc% t return. they're looking it as safety play, not necessarily return play. now, you are getting return in equity, economies improving not only here and around the world and won't get it around the world buying bonds. i think it's over. you have to sell bonds on any rally and investors are looking for low risk putting into equities. >> it's at historic numbers. at what point would you be worried? >> it will be at the 213 area and up to this point, it's fairly orderly. early year giddiness we have to work through. this year, a better story globally. we go beyond that, i think it's more orderly. we're not there yet. i think this is normal. two feds claims in a row. if the feds market starts to improve, maybe some time in the future we take the pedfoot off
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gas pedal. >> it's going up but not orderly selling. now you know what our guys think and the treasury trade, do you think the bond rally is over, go to our website. >> how short sellers discuss things so publicly. we saw the brawl on friday and looking what it means from the markets and your money and from trading stock to retailer and your money today. after the break. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first.
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herbal life simply provided to the public, full transparency on this investment, 330 slides in detail, not scaring people but going through the facts about the company. we did exhaustive research over a year and a half. we'll be either proven right or proven wrong. we shorted the stock. we have not covered our shares.
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that was just one of the many barbs traded between activist investors of bill akman and carl icahn. it raises the question, how publicly should short sellers promote their position. doug is on the fast line. hey, nice to talk to you. >> hey, how are you? >> fine. is it possible to be too public going public in a big short position? >> i don't think so. to me, and maybe i'm biased because i am a short seller many of the times, sublicizing a short position is no different than publicly sizing a long portion. in fact, my experience is -- and this applies to bill akman's analysis specifically of herbal life, that short serials many times are much more rigorous analytically than long buyers.
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>> i had a feeling that would be the response. if you question -- it becomes a moral issue in some respects i don't want to get into. doesn't going so public with a short against the company put the company in some what of an unfair position? there are people who make that argument, right? it puts the company in an unfair position they have to go out and defend itself, whereas maybe a long position on the stock is a belief in something with where the company isn't put in any kind of position whatsoever? >> i don't see it that way, judge. i understand the short selling in certain circles is unpopular. but, again, i see no difference between publicizing a well document documented and rigorous analysis as bill akman has delivered publicly on herbal life versus a long position, which is frankly delivered on a silver platter by
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wall street research. i think the more important point here is what's the lesson from short selling experience, let's say herbal life that rallied dramatically 30, 40% the last couple weeks as some very well-known hedgehogers have gone long in the stock or the case of netflix, had a small gain relative to expectations and saw its stock rise by 60%. i think there's lessons why most people shouldn't be short sellers. >> i guess the overall lesson i want articulated to a viewer watching, whether good or bad, listen to what these big investors have to say, whether to invest behind or in front or whatever of the moves they make and perhaps the perils doing so, whether icahn there on the left
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or akman on the right, they carry a lot of weight not only with markets and public investing and decision styles. >> wouldn't you agree with me, i know you're long-short, not just a short manager, for people following big investors into trades on the short side, the math is so far against the average participant, stock trading 10 to 5 down 50% but needs to go 100% to be whole. the market goes up every four years et cetera. what would you say to the average viewer sees somebody lay out a good short case and thinking about following them in that trade. >> josh, obviously i agree risk and reward, you can lose 100% on the up siside and only if you f bankruptcy or fraud and the upside is possible and that creates at times an insurmountable headwind. also the exercise of selling short is analytically time
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consuming. i said long ideas redished out on a silver platter by the research departments and usually approved by management. i have basic tenets on short selling which apply. the most important. let's look at herbal life for example. to me, josh, a non-starter on a short sale is when the short interest as a percentage of the float is in excess of 6 or 7%. or the short interest as measured by average daily trading volume is more than two days. in this case of herbal life, while they're 110 shares outstanding the float's only 105 million and the share is short slicks million. that means the short ratio is around 37%. the average daily trading volume is around 7 million shares.
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35 million divided and takes five days to cover. these are non-starters. the average individual investor should look very carefully at short interest ratios averages against daily trading volume and float. >> anthony. >> hi, anthony. >> the question i have is more related to cash versus people's balance sheets. if i was a ceo and i would say i have to raise cash and put it on my balance sheet and protect myself. what is your reaction to that? do these debates make it harder for short sellers, not necessarily easier? >> are you saying a company in the eyesight of say an akman should defend itself by buying back stock? >> that's one potential thing to do. in general ceos in vulnerable high multiple companies have to think defensively because of this sort of public stuff. look the way the volatility is
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now in herbal life, whether bill is right or wrong and i think dan will be right or wrong and i can explain why if you guys give me an opportunity, doesn't matter, the volatility shot to the roof. if i was a ceo i'd have to get myself in a defensive position. this sort of public debate will create the reaction in the market. what soros calls reflexicity. watching that debate friday has to say time for me to figure out where to get defensive. >> i have to run but we will talk about this in the weeks and days ahead. thanks for coming on. >> from a trading standpoint i do not understand why akman has been so public about it. you're short, i would be quiet about it. you run the risk of potentially being corrected and thesis where the stock is going. the market will basically take
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him out of the trade. he will ride it to 80? i don't think he would. i think he made a mistake being so aggressive in his position. >> carl icahn is at it again raising his stake in transocean to 30% and urging the company to issue a $4 dividend. any reaction fwrnchts. >> i wouldn't get involved. i look at another company, insco and i think they will do it and you can sleep better at night. remaining cautious on the direction of the global economy and two traders argue about where they think the stock goes next and they will battle it out. she's still the one for you -
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good day, everybody. coming up on power lunch, the dow getting closer and closer to 14,000. is now the time to get into the market? dare you? a bearish question on that and we'll probe it. filers bebe -- beware, thies may be stealing your identity. m >> thanks. we'll see you the top of the hour. from caterpillar ceo, earlier on cnbc gave his outlook for the
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company. >> we're predicting amazingly 2.5% worldwide gdp. if we can somehow get a half a point kick or something this year, we see 13 move up, i think smartly. we have that wall coming at us mid-year starting in march with sequestration and into may with the debt ceiling. how that turns out will probably dictate how 2013 happens for cat piller and maybe for the world. >> despite the cautious outlook, shares of cat are trading higher. is now the time to buy that name? 90 seconds to make the case. why is now the time. >> i like this for macro ropeses and micro. 60% of revenues are overseas. and 27% in asia. an opportunity there. u.s. construction, 25% market share, leading here. micro, doing as best they can in a challenging environment.
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in incremental margins better than expected. in the fourth quarter expect more throughout the year. i think guidance of $7 on the low end was no worse than expected. >> what's the problem then? >> first of all, the stock is up 20% since december 16th. i don't think what we heard about earnings or guidance justifies more than that. this is a great company. don't think it will out-perform the market. the only reason you own an individual stock because it out-performs average stock. $17 is given and they don't give us quarterly numbers. why would this stock take on new highs? >> might be up 20% from mid december level but massively underperformed from last year. of course, i totally agree with you on that.
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guidance was deliberately wide. you could run a truck through. they don't know. $7, rumors out there worse than $7. >> you need iron ore in china and something you have to rest your case on and i wouldn't do it. >> joe, who made the more compelling argument. >> josh brown told you why stephanie is right, gave you the fundamental story. you look at the earnings report, i don't think there's anything within cat's earnings report that should tell you the stock should be up as much as it is today. that's why stephanie is right. >> magic? >> no. the process of trading. that means it will continue to higher and north of $100 no one understands why it's going up but it is. we'll leave it there. coming up, halftime on twitter and disney to waste management. exactly up on half.
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er a
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welcome back to the "halftime" fast money report. want to get you caught not on what herbalife is doing. we told you there would be a news conference held by the ftc, down in kentucky, straight up a at the hour, 1:00 eastern time. there were some speculation in the market that maybe herbalife would be the company mentioned. however, our own reporting, herb
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greenburg's reporting, says that herbalife will not be the source of that conference. it is still down on the day for about 4% for hlf. not so quick, stephanie link. our reporters are not always right. let's look at the debate with barnes & noble last month. >> i think it was encouraging with same store sales, both core and ebooks. >> i think there are encouraging signs for the positive. >> well, well, well. shares, stef, of barnes & noble have dropped 12% since that call. retailers plan it shut down a third of its stores in the next decade. what do you do now? >> well -- i'm fine, hey, look, i was wrong. down 12% is down 12%. i don't think the story changed in a month though. that's the repositioning. getting away from the traditional book retail. we know that is in secular
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decline. but at least it can hang on in that business. but it is the ebook business. the nook. the exciting part of the story, which is why i thought there was some value there. you with get to 16, 17. i don't think it changes much. there is not a lot of new news. microsoft and liberty media, i'm going to hold on. >> when you, the viewers, ask, we deliver at "halftime." four stocks have lit up by twitter time line. ultra short euro, etf, that would be the euo. waste management, disney, our traders will give you the scoop. anthony, whalts the trade? >> i would stay as far from this as i possibly could. the only thing i'm sure, and that is being short. macro environment for the euro is decidedly upwards. that's not to say that currency may not weaken to the u.s. dollar but there is not that kind of explosion that people
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were hoping for. so i would avoid being short things like this. particularly as retail investor. where you're not able to sit in central banking meetings. >> 134, 135 is where you're sitting, the euro has been. 134 1/2. joey? >> anadarco was a stock we were talking about 80, it got there today. look, if you're a near term trader, you take some off fund manically. the story changed for anadarko. i think this is a name you own. >> stepm? >> such a good performer. not even that expensive. the long-term average is about 15 1/2 times. i think theme parks will do very well this quarter and into 2013 continue to do good. in terms of studio as well. and one interesting thing about disney is they spent the last couple of years, a ton of money, on investment, right?
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that goes away in 2013 s think you might have margin. on a pull-back, i would be a buyer. >> let's talk some waste management. >> waste management and republic, when you are looking for defensive playes with yields, no doubt this morning, from credit swiss, speculate that waste management makes seps to convert to investment trust. what that means if you look historically at data, it doesn't man a big pop or drop for shares but might be a more favorable situation if you look for yields. so maybe keep your eye on it and see if they do it. until then, stocks in no man's land, i don't see it going anywhere. it is probably less exciting than other stocks you have. >> more options after the break. that's when we do final trade. you turn for legal matters? o at legalzoom, we've created a better place to handle your legal needs. maybe you have questions about incorporating a business you'd like to start. or questions about protecting your family with a will or living trust. and you'd like to find the right attorney to help guide you along,
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