tv Fast Money CNBC November 4, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
whether or not the market can rise without the banks in the lead moving higher. nasdaq picked up 14.5. that will do it for closing bell. i will see you tomorrow. fast money begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. red flags for the rally. two big wall street names raising concerns about the market's big run. the high flier has been tapping the brakes and we have got a bull and bear debate. and consumer check up joins us to break down the held of the consumer and how his company is gearing up for the all important holiday season.
we have got to get straight to our top story tonight and that is the big drop in crude. leading us to wonder why exactly is oil falling and what is the best way to trade it? lack of demand might not spell well for the rally. >> global economy. from my view, most of this is a supply issue. you're getting an awful lot of it down to the gulf coast. so you're really seeing that oversupply coming into the u.s. look at texas. they have had a housing boom. cy would be concerned about some of the banks. that's also an impact.
>> look at jet fuel. we're going to talk a little bit about the airlines. ultimately you talk about the places where trade is attached to that. >> if it's simply a supply and demand issue, that should be okay for stocks? >> i'm not certain what it is. i think it might be a demand thing. it hasn't really mattered. it's bounced off of the 85.5, 86 level. it's finally catching up stock performance wise. but i still think one of the more interesting plays is the new field exploration. we talked about that over the last couple of weeks. the name is $30, i think.
>> they are hedged into 2014. now you have to look ot to 2015 for earnings. >> i have to wonder if it has impact for some of the retailers. however, for a name like walma t walmart, we see gas prices continue to go lower. that has to be good on the margin. >> straight up oil play, tim, where do you go for this trade? >> i think these guys are involved in the energy infrastructure trade. these guys are part of a business that i think has transformed itself.
cmi ultimately a place where you're getting exposure to large trucks. >> cmi you saw the last week that they missed their truck business. >> it definitely was on the resources side. a big picture view that energy crisis are coming down. these are places you want to be. >> let's talk more shorter term here. fast money after all. we have the airline index. everybody knows that you have got pay extra for the bag. they have momentum so you have got to be in and out of these very quickly.
>> finally getting out of its own way. the stock was muddled. but if you're looking over the last month, month and a half it finally seems to want to get its momentum going. that, to me, is another interesting name in the space. >> like delta. look at a company whose 13% on their roe. if you could get global air traffic it's up 1y7 5%. more people are flying. but i think the tail once again are exactly what you want to follow. >> let's get more on this oil trade. live from virginia beach. dennis, great to see you rrks mel, always good to be seen. >> you have been on this very program saying wti could see 85? >> it's not going to do it today. i think over the course of the
next several months probably shall be. you're actually beginning to see that now in brent, also. brent is about to go to a cantango. i hate to get too essewer the rick here. and it wants to go lower at this point. i was short until today. . i will be selling crude oil again. i'm selling in canada. >> people need to understand what's going on. people need to understand what's going on. people need to understand the
changes that are taking place in the united states and what has gone on in north dakota north dakota. it's astonishing what has happened. we are eventually going to be energy independent and now it's making it to the front pages. it's an amazing change here in the united states and i think it's a paradime shift. >> these solar names will it take the wind out of the sails of solar? >> i am much more a proponent of crude oil. the amount of tax dollars that we have spent to try to support
wind and solar makes no sense to me. if crude oil makes its way lower, i think it spells the demise of the solar energy phenomenon. >> if it's not a ka nar ree in the coal mine, can it be a boost? >> you get the consumer that is going to help. the ones that are performing best here, look at coal and --
look at the steel space. look at walter energy and cleveland cliffs. these have been massive trades for the past couple of months. a lot of the miners have been priced like their balance sheets. walter energy is a great example of that. these are trades you can stay in. coal demand globally is still growing. >> you can see manufacturing come back to the united states in a significant way and that was just unimaginable. a very short time ago. that would obviously be very good. >> we have been on the steel names. i think he came out and made comments about the steel. they are going to be very late and wrong. this has had a big run.
here is where i would absolutely be taking profits. i think you can see this thing trade back down. >> we're going to stick with energy and get a market flash. check in with domonic. both mauving in the afterhours session. the company produced higher volumes of oil and natural gas from its north american shale business. it was lower than the street was expecting. it beat street views in earnings and sales. you can see it's heading higher. >> all right. thanks very much. >> marathon is the one that you will watch for. you talked about libya. marathon has the exposure there. chart looks great. lots of momentum. i would be concerned if oil keeps falling.
>> yet another crazy chapter. what's next for the hand set make sner traders give you the play book. plus have tl has been big returns and small caps. why one is raising red flags on the russel 2,000 and how you should trade it right now. our call of the day. that's next. before global opportunities were part of their investment strategy...
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welcome back to fast >> welcome back to fast money. we are live in times square. time to make today's top trades. first up, a smart phone shake up. blackberry says heins is stepping down. is there any left of this value at this point? >> kudos to karen who has been on the short side of this for a long time now. she did it when the stock was all the way down and here we are now -- i don't know how low we are. probably four or five year lows. to answer your question is there any value? i don't think particularly. the good news if you want to trade it, you add up 120 million data share today. >> at this point it was credited
for turning around when he joined. >> i agree. thanks for saying that. it has got to be for a bounce. we have no one who wants to buy us at any price. that doesn't make me want to be long. >> right. >> but could it bounce? sure. >> this is a former girl who actually i bought on a dip about a year and a half ago and took a lot of pain on it. when they sold their hand set business to microsoft, i started to nibble. i'm still underwater but it's a stock i want to stay in. they are selling their intellectual property and leasing their patents to sam sung. the intellectual part of their business, the software part so what blackberry has. >> home gamers stay away. >> i think so. i -- yeah. you can do it for a trade. but what is left to this thing?
if they couldn't sell it now after they announced to the whole world that they are for sale, who is coming. >> the lower oil could really take the wind out of the sails of the solar trade. >> some of the producers have gotten under control. what we are seeing is a real demand there. increased orders. it's about balance sheet healing. it's not necessarily white washing and saying this is a pristine balance sheet. these guys are profitable again. as you saw it overnight, sun tech power announced over in china, a lot of these guys are seeing profitability for the first time in a couple of years. the stocks were heavily shorted and oversold and you have a rally that can stay on.
>> goldman gets bullish on steel. naming us steel and ak steel. >> i love all of the colors. but going back to u.s. steel and the steels in general, i would be concern ed i would be taking profits in this. >> look at aa. become much more involved in places where technology and some of these other guys have been. this has been to new 52 week highs. the deal is real. this is a charlt you should look at. >> two red flags being raised. they are our calls of the day. the first one market technician
advising buyers to be aware. highest level since 2008. and a market pull back could be, in fact, around the corner. >> what he is say something that you're seeing price reversals. sales that are powerful on a daily and weekly basis. at a min numb you will see underperformance. the dough will make three or four consecutive highs. he's not saying the end is in. we will see where china goes. >> you have been raising the red flag. >> yeah. i think you need to be a little concerned here. the way you trade this, you take a look at iwm, 110.82, look for
a reversal there. if you get a reversal you might be able to short this. >> russel has been up what? 30% or so? last week you had some warning signs. we'll see. every sell off has been a huge reason to buy it. maybe -- since timmy says, maybe now is the time. >> time now for pops and drops. big movers of the day. a pop for realty. >> a really fantastic quarter especially when everyone expected that it will be the end for a while of the housing market. they saw more sales and higher prices. >> you know, again, this is a name that you stay away from. up 3%. there is so much going on here that you have no idea what's going on behind the scenes. >> a pop today up 3%. >> especially this part of the
fertilizer space, these guys report tomorrow. hsbc upgraded. i don't mind staying long. these are stocks that are oversold and i think you can play. >> you have a pop here for trip advisor. >> the whole space has been unbelievable. price line has been a monster. you can't short the space right now. >> wait. >> what have you got? >> we got a pop for birthdays. look at that! >> love the do. happy birthday to melissa lee. we're not going to tell the number. >> certainly not. >> she is rocking out. >> looking good. rock and roll. >> thank you very much. >> very sweet of you. i thought we had a pop for bees. trying to trick me. >> what are you talking about bees. >> that was the ruse. >> good use of that word.
coming up neck on fast money. goes into overdrive. shares of tesla finally overheated? we have got the electric street fight on tap that you cannot afford to miss. plus fast money goes running with the bulls. 17,000. too unrealistic? not to our next guest. we will tell you how we get there when we come right back. we went out and asked people a simple question:
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♪ ♪ so you can get out of your element. so you can explore a new frontier and a different discipline. get two times the points on travel and dining at restaurants from chase sapphire preferred. so you can be inspired by great food once again. chase sapphire preferred. so you can. >> >> welcome back to fast money. tesla reports third quarter
earnings tomorrow. the stock is at a monster run in 2013. >> thank you. >> the brakes in the past month following about 3%. actually in the month of october it was down. should you buy the dip ahead of earnings. time for a good old fashioned street fight. >> can you believe that? >> seymour, the bear. guy, kick it off. >> a report of over $500 million in sales up about a thousand percent year-over-year. that's a pretty staggering growth. tim is going to tell you about valuation. there is is a huge expansion story as well and it's taking place in europe. they will probably report a huge one time charge due to that expansion in new york. i also think that's in the numbers. this year they are going to surpass those 21,000 vehicles.
this is a technology as well. their own technology that is worth something. >> saying the valuation is high is not enough so at 297 times earnings is not enough. any analyst that talks about what they do if they have no other way to analyze a company, anyone will tell you that is now how you value a company. they're going to grow. sales ten times between now and 2016. they will grow them 20 times by 2020. people that are looking for a similar asthetic and similar quality are going to going to be flobing to cars like this.
this is a place where this chart doesn't look like it did a month and a half ago. >> we know we have talked about a fire here and there. every piece of bad news the opportunity to obliterate this stock. >> there is definitely competition. you know there is competition but stock prices don't lie. >> tesla. >> there it is. >> so we're going to go to bk here. nobody mentioned the fact that ela n talked his own stock price down. >> when you have stocks like this that happen on a tear and they start to break you have to be concerned. i would be a seller on here.
>> why does one feel a need to be involved from either side? it's like war games. >> anything if i owned it i would be selling. >> i think the risk to the downside is huge. there is also that chance that everybody is what you have seen before and this sucker reports north of 200. >> i'm glad we clarified. tweet us using hash tag bull or bear. we will have the results at the end of the show. germany profres sor of finance is another one sticking to his guns. he joins us now.
always great to speak with you. so truly 17,000 by 2010? >> 17 to 17. it ask happen. there is going to be an easy target next year. to reach and sur pas in my opinion. i don't know if we will quite get there by december 31, but near. >> near. i'm going to reel off some of the reasons why some people might not be as bullish at this point in time. we're losing the leadership of the small caps. equity inflows are at near euphoric levels. does any of this concern you? >> the russel had a good day today.
>> over the past month or week? >> the russel has been so -- you're right. but the brett of the mark has been very, very strong. i do look at that as a short run indicator. when i take a look at stable interest rates, 250 to 260, oil down you guys mentioned early. earnings are going to be good, up 10% this year. fourth quarter comparisons are going to be very good. there is actually going be some accretion accretions bottom line is i have been say iing we are still belo that today. >> it's brian kelly. at the heart of the whole market
rally is this logical fallacy that the federal reserve has completely short circuited the business cycle. have they found the hole pli grail of central banking. >> first of all, rsh an extremely interesting favorable climate. i don't need an extra price to get the prices after the levels now. tapering is off the table for another four or five months.
money market funds are still at zero. >> when you look at around the world valuations. where would you be allocating now? >> i thought all stocks were beat up way too much when this tapering started. and i think the emerging markets got a double historically that is well below average and historically a buy. i think that sector is going be rewarding certainly for the long term investor. i like it. going to have to bring it down to get that recovery going. if you protect yourself against the depreciation, you are looking at 12 and 13 on european
stocks, these are all very reasonable valuations in this type of climate. so, you know, i'm not bearish on any particular sector right now. >> we're going to leave it there. always great to speak with you. thank you. profess professor jeremy seeingle. >> what i would say sit's actually a little cheaper. this looks fantastic. but the places that are particularly cheap have major issues. if you look at it in local currency terms. i believe emerging markets are going to outperform next year. i look at market factors like the ipo, the levers on the new york stock exchange. these things are at record highs. >> coming up next we are bringing you tomorrow's trade tonight. and how you should be positioned.
fastlcome back to >> welcome back to fast money. let's kick off a couple of afterhours loopers. the ticker there, shares are rocketing higher by around 13%. this after the high-tech materials company said it signed a multiyear supply deal with apple for sapphire products. remember sapphire materials are used in things like the new fingerprint scanner. then there is leapfrog. posting earnings that beat estimates on sales. leapfrog also offered up disappointing guidance. back over to you. >> thanks very much. we are just 50 days away. what can we expect from the consumer this. great to see you. >> you recently report ed earnings. your sea did say it was expected
up. what is most popular as an affordable luxury these days? >> we believe cosmetics is one of the most affordable luxuries. and for us, our emphasis this year has been on fragrance which usually has its strongest quarter in the call lan dar of the year. we think we have got a great selection of brands. new innovation that is offering the consume aerogreat deal. and the retail partners with whom we deal with, they have got a very solid plan in place that makes it easily approachable for that consumer. >> fragrance has been very strong but there is thought that gift with purchase is going to be big. how much of that is true? are you going to give up a little bit on margins?
>> you know, the gift with purchase period starts with september and october and tapers off into a different style of promotional offerings, more around gift sets. full price purchases where we combine things for the consumers. two parts for this. premade sets as well as custom made sets. that consumer who comes late. >> what are you seeing in terms of the buyer that l'oreal has had troubles with? >> a lot of our strategy has been aiming our message to shift
the consumer out of more mass products sold in the chain drugs and moving them up to the macy's where the affordable luxuries are pretty competitively priced. a lot of share gain is not within our universe but a larger univer universe, moving the consumer up. she is often hanging one for mom and one for herself. a lot of message iing she feels is good enough for her. that goes around the world that a lot of it is about the aspirational consumer. she's moving up and saying i'm worth it. i'm going to spend this money on myself.
>> they were better than expected this quarter, still down year-over-year. is that a trend i should be concerned about? just a function of growth that we're seeing internationally. >> a lot of it is the growth we are seeing internationally. it's not a good deal to look at quarters. there is a lumpiness in movement in and out of quarters. that's a more rational way to look at how you manage it. >> thanks for looking at it.
a few older tech names catching the name. >> the technology had nine times value. certainly some players not seeing overly bullish. not going to win the race to technology. you had a couple of names that would be interesting to watch. nuance was in the news. on rumors basically circulating around our trade desk that maybe some takeover targets could be here. maybe this is a buy here. and of course, qualcomm reporting after the close on wednesday seeing two times average daily volume in the calls. certainly that is one to watch. >> all right. thank you very much for that options action. don't go anywhere. when we come back we will recap
the biggest moments on cnbc today plus two big reports. our traders will give you the play today before the numbers. much more fast straight ahead. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ the basics, you know.
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>> welcome back. in case you missed some of today's top moments erks here is a rapid fire recap in tonight's executive edge. >> i don't think that we can afford to wait until the political waters are completely calm before we decide to make a decision. if it's really out of control, it might pause for just a minute but i don't want that to be driving. >> for governors who get paid to do things, you know, it really is concerning that washington is just constipated. there is nothing else you can say about it. the president doesn't lead. the republicans, i thought, really did themselves a lot of damage. >> toronto globe and mail
reporting that they are aband abandoning a plan to find a buyer. >> this is is a golden age of science. and people forget that 50% of all economic growth can be traced to advances in the bioscience. >> we are awaiting a news conference by attorney general in what the agency is -- the justice department is calling a significant health care settlement. johnson and johnson and the anti-psychotic drug. >> greed sometimes is not good. no institution should rest easy in the belief that it is too big to jail. >> all right. you're watching today. >> can never get enough of the federal reserve. i do think what's interesting, though, is a lot of the decision
was made and that's not going to change. i think the odds of a taper are a lot higher than the market is pricing. >> i think that the fed has to come in and there will be a ton of fed speak all week. >> now that we discussed what happened today, let's look ahead to tomorrow. the company is up. 52% in 2013. >> sell this one earlier. he has done a fantastic job here. >> i wouldn't be a buyer here. great job. >> and from health food to homes, real estate website due out with third quarter earnings after the bell. zillow is up 188% this year. >> got the steam knocked out of
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time time for a trade update. karen has been making the bull case for joseph ample bank. >> they actually had a very interactive conference call which they have not had in quite some time. it was very positive. we're long. i like it. it's cheap. >> joseph bank. ooelter way they take over or get taken over. >> it's been a good call so well. initially told men's warehouse that it would consider.
but men's warehouse wrote back saying the deal was ined a quality and said can't do it. so we're not opening up the books but it looks increase gsly like this might not happen. >> i think they were hoping that they would be pressuring men's warehouse shareholders to put pressure on management to come to the negotiating table but i don't think that's happening. so i think november 14 without a deal. the most likely place is for them to use their cash horde to buy back shares. we're long some. we sold some last week. >> it was a totally different strategy. >> it is. how do you flip on a dime. >> they can't make it happen in the short term, which they can't. they have missed the window for
this year. >> right. >> but ether way you see potential upside. a deal will happen with maybe some other company. or more likely they will use their cash. >> i think they take away the deal to come later. >> you tweet it we trade it. >> that's a tim seymour fade. >> listen, david announced that he increased a short stake in the middle month. he does his work. very smart guy. karen can attest to that. stock has sold off. 60 is where it exploded. >> banks, banks, banks with expla mags points.
>> you know i love jamie. >> come on. >> however. i do think there is actually more upside in city bank. i'm long jp morgan. normalized earnings are cheaper. management is not as good but they are decent. >> this is for bk. materials breaking out recently. lagger play? >> i'm generally not one that will buy the lagrd play. the thing has gotten crushed. it does look like it's trying to make a bottom here. maybe take a one third position here. i don't think it goes anywhere. >> what will it take for emerging market equities to break out of their two year flat line? >> it's really 4450.
takes you out of the levels you were talking about. no em rally without china. they had a non-manufacturing pmi last night which i think is very strong. some of your biggest markets still have huge structural issues. brazil is still in a very difficult place. i would be long. >> we have got your first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. geoff: i'm the kind of guy who doesn't like being sold to. the last thing i want is to feel like someone is giving me a sales pitch, especially when it comes to my investments. you want a broker you can trust.
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where certain fungal infections are common. tell your doctor if you have had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. you should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. ask your doctor if humira can work for you. this is humira at work. >> look >> look at that do. >> like joan jet. >> terrible. >> joan jet lee. >> i want to do business first. we had a street fight on tesla. guy, the bull, takes home the trophy tonight. >> go buy some stock. >> i won. >> you're just a loser. >> final trade. tim? >> delta airlines.
dal. >> i would sell some pxd and happy birthday. >> i really like foot locker. >> guy. >> you don't turn 65 every day. happy birthday. go get him. >> not a day over 60. lee. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast." "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. what makes for a healthy market? a market like today where the dow gained 24 points, s&p climbed .63%. ho hum