tv Closing Bell CNBC November 7, 2013 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
down by triple digits on the dow. certainly off the session lows. i think we're down about the most in three weeks for the dow and down about the most in a month for the nasdaq. "closing bell" is coming up next. we'll continue to watch, of course, the close of the twitter ipo. first day of trade. >> what happened today? >> i think it was up by 80%. twitter ipo. >> thank you, everybody. >> thank you. hello, everybody. good afternoon. we enter the final stretch. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange where it's been all about twitter today. >> what happened today? >> something's going on. we're watching how it closes. >> i'm bill griffith. we are watching this market backing off all time highs. that's very interesting. we're all fee kocusing on twitt today. have you seen the nasdaq? composite index taking it on the chin worse than anyone on a percentage basis. down more than a percent and a half right now. that exchange lost out on the new york stock exchange for the twitter ipo.
but something's going on with technology stocks. they have been going south for the last week. as the blue chips were going higher. even though that's not happening today. we're going to look into that coming up. >> a lot of momentum names really rolling over. momentum really romming over. we continue to follow twitter's amazing first day of trading today. the stock jumping the moment it began trading. just before 11:00 a.m. is when it opened. ipo price was $26 a share which was priced last night. a huge move today. 86% on the upside. we are going to welcome to the program dan niles later on, ask him what he thinks about this. if this momentum can last. he nailed it on facebook. a lot of people want to know what he says about twitter. coming up later on "closing bell." >> looking forward to that. it has been as far as we can tell a glitch free day for the trading of twitter. coming up, we're going to talk with duncan niederauer, head of the new york stock exchange. it feels like a winning locker
room today on the trading floor. we'll talk to duncan about that and what they had to do to ward off the stigma of facebook a little later here. also big news coming out. priceline, groupon and disney after the bell. we'll welcome disney's bob iger in a first on cnbc interview after his earnings are released. always a revealing interview with bob iger. news today. a huge deal with netflix. a lot to discuss there. join us for bob iger coming up. let's show you what's happening, though, on wall street. it's been a down day despite the twitter hoof la. down 104 points. was down 138 at the low of the session about 30 minutes ago. right now at 15,642. that's a .66% decline. look at the nasdaq down a percent and a half. it was down 66 points at the low. down 58 right now at 3873. high profile technology stocks taking it on the chin. 1755 has been considered a
support level for the s&p. we're below that today. they're watching that very carefully. and bob pisani, of course, you're watching that as well. but i have to give you kudos. a great job this morning on the open on twitter. we were all glued watching you as you were waiting for that first trade to take place. >> thank you, bill. it's not just get for the nyse but good for overall market sentiment to have a smooth opening of such a big name. i'm a little more concerned with what's going on with the overall markets. put up the full screen. twitter is having a great day at $48. it's elsewhere i'm a little concerned with. right now we're 3-1 declining to advancing stocks. that's very poor. that's on nasdaq as well as the nyse. volume is going to be heavy today. watch that. down day, heavy volume. hedge funds, this has been the story for the last several weeks now. they've been long beta names. these are high volatility names. stuff that moves up and down a lot. and short defensive names. colgates, procter & gambles. this week that has been looking very shaky. this may or may not continue or
it could stop today. we don't know. we're in some kind of transition here. the question that everybody's asking is, is that kind of trend, that kind of unwind we've been seeing going to continue? what do i mean when we talk about momentum stock? high beta names. moves a lot on a daily bay sus. look this week. tesla down 12%. yelp. zillow. facebook. linkedin. flat basically on the week. to the downside. chinese internet. classic day trading names. kihoo. baidu. youku. renren. the other big momentum group, biotech names. huge volume. traders love to play around with these stocks. gilead, biogen idec. celje celgene. what's been up?
costco, sysco, cvs. the otc markets sent me a note they're going to be reopening trading about now pending a notice from finra. those are the pink sheets. they've been out today on a system outage. i'll keep an eye on that. i'm over here today. joining us now -- >> there you are. >> here i am. wherever i go. heather hughes from sun america funds is with us today. so is bill mcveil from the turner small cap growth fund. john smith from d.t. investment parters and our own rick santelli. welcome to everybody. heather hughes, we talk about this change in tone of the market. we've really felt in the last week or so the momentum stocks are going down. technology is taking a hit. even as the blue chips were going higher. what's going on? is there a rotation going on or what are you sensing here? >> yes. you're right. it's very interesting that the advisers we work with were saying look at the cyclical
growth plays in industrials -- or technology, biotech got crushed yesterday. we're not seeing that happen. investors are going back to the large cap value. those dividend grower names. if there is such a thing as a safe haven asset class aside from bonds, they're looking at those blue chips again. it worked the first half of this year. i didn't think i would be saying it again. that's where we are today. >> bill mcvail, what about you? in terms of small caps, first off, small cap growth. would you buy twitter here? bill? >> a little too big for me. it's interesting -- i'm here. when you look at a stock like twitter, these big, high profile events, it's not unusual to see the market get hit. a lot of anticipation builds for something like this. it happens. then the market sells off. in small cap land i own shutterfly. i own yelp. they're both -- home away is actually up big at a good number
today. you're right. you're seeing the high fliers take a hit. i just wo-- every time i trimmea stock or a theme in year because i thought the market had gotten hot i e grregretted the decisio. there might be a pause. i think once we have a correction we can still have a strong close to the year. >> let me go back to heather for a second before we move on. i don't want to let you off the hook too easily. would you buy twitter at these levels? >> come on, bill. >> come on, heather. play along. >> i just signed up for a twitter account. i have no idea how to use it. of course, i do follow you and maria, though. for whatever that means. i will figure it out shortly. >> but you're not interested in buying the stock, then? >> i can't -- i can't do it. i can't get buy or sell. i'm still looking at twitter for dummies book. i'll be buying that shortly. >> twitter for dummies. >> what about you?
first your twitter call. then we'll talk about the overall market. >> sure. i would not be a buyer of twitter right here. ever since that whole tech bubble thing i'm still a little bit queasy of buying anything i can't see a p.e. ratings on because there's no earnings. other than our other prognosticator, i don't think there's a correlation between what twitter is doing today and the overall market. i really think we've gone up to historic highs in the equity market here because bad things didn't happen. right? you know, we didn't, you know, default on our u.s. government debt. we didn't go into a prolonged government shutdown. the fed didn't taper. so i think, you know, if you look at things, you know, we really need to see those things start to come to fruition. we actually need to start to taper to see if, in fact, this economy can be self-sustaining. if the markets can continue to rise on their own and hit a second phase of this sort of cyclical bull market we've seen happen already. >> the other big story is the fact that the ecb cut rates
today. >> by the way. >> rick santelli, that was not expected. give us the reaction. even lower range in europe. >> it's by far the defining fundamental economic issue of the day. everything was jostled around it created a lot of volatility. what's the aftermath? any goodwill that was put into world equities and indeed u.s. equities was rather short lived. though the dax is one of the eurozone indexes that did close up, less than half of 1%. but let's look at the charts. is this is a chart of 10-year note yields since the last fed meeting. yes, we were affected. yields initially went down just like they did around the world. but not much in the u.s. and we're still 14 basis points intraday lows of the wednesday of the fed's statement. if you look at the difference between 5s and 10s it's been a parallel shift on the down moving interest rates today. still hovering at 1.30-ish. what about the spread to 10 year
bunds? they were down more than u.s. 10-year notes predicated on what the ecb did. we're looking at that chart right now year to date. we're over 90. we're going to continue to see -- what does that mean for capital flows? maybe the last chart is the most important. euro got smacked. definitely the market wasn't expecting it. briefly we traded under 1.33. here it sits at 1.34. it would be the lowest close since mid-september. but it isn't on the lows. i personally think what the ecb did with rates is symbolic. what isn't symbolic is how nervous they are about their own economy. and i think that's what screams from their action today. >> that's for sure. i mean, cut it from 50 to 25. >> european central bank move today i think was a big shock and surprise to the market. where else are you going to go right now? look at the stock markets. they're down 123. still near all time highs. you look at oil, commodities,
bonds continue their outflows. >> right. >> it reminds me of the 1980s blockbuster movie "an officer and a gentleman." you've got the drill sergeant yelling at mayo. are you ready to quit yet, sir? get out. no, sir, i'm not. i got nowhere else to go. >> yeah, you do, heather. heather, stay in cash. stay in cash. a little deflation. >> all right. >> now they're using the same playbook, right? they're all using the same playbook in trying to get in there. nothing's going to happen until actually the fundamental -- the fundamentals of the economy start rising. that's not going to happen by continued lowering in rates and continuing, you know, this tapering -- until we start this tapering. >> yet the markets have headed higher for now. >> by the way, i had one statistic i was going to point out. let me do it now. the index that tracks ipos this
year is up 41%. that's how collectively all 193 ipos this year have done. up 41% compared to the s&p which is up 23%. just putting it out there. all right. thanks, gang. >> take a short break. >> see you later. >> toward the close. 50 minutes left in the trading session. apparently we're in a hurry. i don't know what happened. down 117 points right now on the industrial average. but the nasdaq is really getting hit today. still to come, twitter fest continues. the social media stock popular today. and the platform is popular with high school and college students. we turn to some youth investment clubs to see if they are buying as well as tweeting right now. by all accounts the twitter ipo continues to go smoothly. we'll talk to the man who martialed it through. duncan niederauer is up next. disney is out with earnings tonight. the breakdown with disney's marvel deal with ceo bob iger still to come on the "closing bell."
headline today. down here in duncan niederauer. >> good day for twitter. good day for everybody. we're pretty happy. >> as we roll near the close, did the day go as planned? z >> i think so. i had three pretty modest objectives for us coming in today. number one, i wanted it to be a flawless operation. other than one or two things that we can talk about if you guys want to, it was smooth as could be. thirdly, what we were able to do with you guys and others was really bring everybody in to the crowd. right? that was one of the objectives today. we wanted to do what twitter does so well, really demockerate everything. >> i hope you saw that this morning. it was remarkable to watch bob pisani right here in the crowd as they were waiting to get a price. that was risky, though. >> it was risky. our view is here.
nothing to hide. full transparency. >> i get that. >> we understood if something went wrong, i was going to be changing my hashtag to #nyse to #facethemusic. we wanted everyone to have a chance to see it and watch it and feel like they were there. that was the goal. >> in terms of volume, how would you characterize it today? >> i expected about 100 million shares today. you know, it's a little more than that. it's hanging in there. the opening was about $10 million or $11 million. >> he's going to sleep well tonight. >> we all are. >> how much was facebook in the back of your mind as you were preparing for this? >> since we had less to do with that than i would have hoped to a year ago, i wish they were a partner of ours as well. i really wasn't thinking about it. i've been encouraging some of your peers ie media to say,
like, we have to let them -- like, please, like, put that out of the -- like, everyone's consciousness. i feel like we drag them through it every time we talk about this. they're doing great as a company. what we were focused on with the industry more importantly is what do you guys need from us that would make all of you feel more comfortable. that's why we were volunteering to do all the open calls. we were suggesting things this morning. saying, hey, guys, this might happen. you might try this instead. that was to put the industry at ease. i felt very confident we'd execute the way we did today. >> what kind of testing did you do? >> we encouraged people to send us, like, particularly the big order flow providers, on some of the weekend tests we said, send us, like, the most order flow you've ever had. send it to us all at once. we just want to see how many -- we weren't sure. was this going to be heavy retail? mostly institutional? we were trying to stress test the capacity. at the same time, we were not going to start changing and playing around with systems this
past weekend. it was just more to inform us and everyone elsewhere did we think any stresses were. i think the system performed great today. >> by the way, it struck me as i was watching this morning this crowd of people, traders, waiting for that first trade to be executed, human beings still matter in the stock market. >> i think they really did. because what happened from really in my mind 10:00 to the opening at 10:40, 10:45, was a lot of that was human judgment. you could still -- you could see people still changing their limits. we wanted to make sure that once we opened it, it was smooth as silk after that. we didn't want to open it and have the stock flying all over the place. i think you see from the range on the day, it opened at 45 and change. as low as 44. high as 50. most of the volume has been between 45 and 47. i think that's a testament to the fact that the judgment that got laid on top of the good technology, that's the right formula. we're going to stick with it. >> what a great testament to your legacy as this deal happens. as you soon, you know, close the
deal and move on. tell us about that. is the deal going to close this weekend? >> i hope so. it's thursday afternoon already. it's not going to close this week. we have to give everybody two business days' notice. >> you were expecting -- >> i was hoping this week. my guess is it's going to be next week. there's one or two signatures we need. we should get them tomorrow, early next week. i'm hoping by this time next week, we're done. i do think it's imminent. i'm looking forward to next year where jeff and i can work together for a year and my job will specifically be nyse rel e related. i'm excited about that personal personally. i love this place. >> how do you want to see the exchange evolve under the new leadership? >> i think what we're hoping above all is that jeff can lend his voice to a debate that i think is ongoing about market structure. you and i have watched a lot of these changes together. there's some great things that have happened in market structure in the last five years. other things that should make us take pause. i'm hoping jeff can lend his voice to that and we can be
louder with our voices heard together. that's one of the things. as far as the facility here, i'm proud of what we've done the last few years. to me this is a great testament. we have changed the culture here. we have changed the way the place is thought of. we're now winning most of the tech ipos as opposed to winning hardly any of them. right? >> we talk about -- here we sit near all-time highs for the major averages here. it's been an incredible run for the last few years for the u.s. stock market. but at the same time, we keep hearing how the little guy is not participating. this has been the most unloved rally, i think, that we've seen in quite some time. >> people don't believe it. >> what does wall street have to do to bring the little guy back to the investment world? >> yeah. i think the industry lost the confidence of the individual investor. and you don't get it back by the market going up. you get it back by actions that you take. that was part of what we were trying to do today. as risky as you pointed out it might have been, bill. we wanted to say we're going to bring you into the living room.
you don't need a special pass to understand what's going on down here. you can all participate. you can all see what's going on. and i really thought it was a chance to redemocratize the market as i said earlier. hopefully we took a small measure towards doing that. you're right. retail to a large extent has missed this rally that we've had since off the bottom in '09. >> as far as twitter today, how much of it was institutional largely versus retail? >> i think the sense i had, glenn might know better, it felt to me like it was placed with institutional, but then retail stepped in once the stock was open today. i think a lot of the activity you've seen today is very much heavy, heavy retail today. looking at the order flow demographics. >> you saw a lot of retail today? >> yeah, yeah. i think the deal was placed mostly with institutions last night, right? >> yes. agree. >> then you saw retail? >> yes. we saw retail. >> that's glenn carol, specialist in twitter. thank you, glenn. from barclays. >> like we said, mission accomplished. >> mission accomplished.
it was hopefully all of your viewers feel like they really got a bird's eye view of how things work and onward and upward from here. >> well done. thanks, duncan. >> take a short break. check as we approach the close, down 117 on the dow jones industrial average. check out twitter. continuing this huge move 80% higher from the ipo price. we'll be back with more "closing bell" in just a moment. stay with us. u love her for it. u love her for it. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache.
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welcome back. tesla shares getting slammed again today. selling began this week after disappointing earnings. >> yet another fire involving their model s. that's hitting the stock today as well. the first fire was in the state of washington. the second in mexico. now this third tesla model s fire in the state of tennessee. phil lebeau has details on that one. phil? >> and, bill, we're still trying to get exact details about what happened with this tesla model s fire. take a look at these pictures provided to us by the tennessee highway patrol. these are shots of the model s after the fire was put out. the driver was uninjured. got out of the car. he apparently drove over a tow hitch in the road. that punctured the battery compartment. by the way, as you're looking at this, this is the third model s fire in the last six weeks. and for tesla shares, it has added to what has been a terrible couple of days. in fact, this is the worst two day drop for tesla shares in more than three years. tesla says it is sending a team of investigators to tennessee to investigate what happened. as for the federal government,
the national highway traffic safety administration tells us that it will contact the local authorities who are looking into the incident to determine if there are vehicle safety implications that merit agency action. tesla has sold more than 19,000 model s vehicles over the last year and a half. ceo elon musk after the first model s fire in seattle said, listen, you're better off, safer in a model s with a battery pack than you are driving a conventional vehicle filled with gasoline. that said, shares of tesla continue to be way down. think about this, bill. if you go back to the high, which was more than $194, this stock is down more than 25%. that high was set in late september. bill, back to you. >> one of those momentum stocks we talk about that's taken such a big hit in the last week or so. thanks very much, phil lebeau. while everyone has been focused on twitter today, there have been some other market movers. dominic chu has been tracking them for us. >> it's not all twitter. let's start off with jc penney.
the stock is moving higher after the embattled retail r reported its first monthly same store sales gains in nearly two years. that's a huge move for jc penny to the upside. men's warehouse on the rise as well. david faber reporting that eminence capital took a 9.8% stake in the company and urged it to solicit bids to sell itself. also urged them to talk to joseph a. bank who earlier in the week said it would raise its bid if it could see men's warehouses books which was rejected by men's warehouse. then there's geron soaring to a four-year high on heavy trading. also amc networks fell after the cable tv's third quarter profits misread forecasts. it spent more on programming to replace marquee shows such as, of course, "breaking bad." qualcomm lower. posting weaker than expected fourth quarter earnings and warned that current quarter sales would be below forecast. those qcom shares taking it on
the chin. back over to you. heading toward the close, 30 minutes left. i just heard from art cashin that selling pressure is not that strong. only $75 million to sell right now. but we are down 126 points on the dow. and the nasdaq is down 1.5% today. big selloff. twitter fever, though, is sweeping the new york stock exchange floor. is it contagious? is twitter a buy with the college crowd? we'll get the answer from -- >> the college crowd. >> good idea. coming up. lenovo was foiled in its attempt to acquire blackberry because it's a chinese company. we speak to lenovo president about that and a lot more coming up on "closing bell." at a ford dealer with a little q and a for fiona. tell me fiona, who's having a big tire event? your ford dealer. who has 11 major brands to choose from?
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welcome back. we're in the final stretch of trading. 30 minutes left until the closing bell. take a look at how we are shaping up on the dow jones industrial. down about 135 moments. there is a slight bias to the downside with an imbalance to the sell side. nasdaq is also weaker. that's a sharp decline here. down almost 2% on the nasdaq. 70 points lower despite the, of course, twitter shares here at the new york doing quite well. s&p 500 down 22 points. 1.25% lower. certainly one of the key
demographics is the millennial generation. we've talked about whether or not they would be investors in twitter these days. >> what do college students think? the investment clubs out there about twitter. seema mody with more. >> these students may tweet. but when it comes to investing in twitter, reaction is mixed. >> we're going to talk about the twitter ipo. >> reporter: at warwick valley high school in warwick, new york, twitter is a hot topic with the school's investment club. how many of you use twitter? the group's been looking into the ipo and considering if they would pick the stock for their fantasy portfolios. >> it's going to go up. it's going to go up quickly. when it peaks it's going to go down very quickly. >> i think i will sell it before it gets to a long-term investment. >> reporter: the advertising model is one of their long term concerns as is the cool factor. >> we went from myspace to facebook to twitter. what's going to be the next thing?
i think when the parents start coming into twitter i don't see myself being on it as much as i am now. >> reporter: future wall streeters at greenhill school outside of dallas see it another way. >> right here they thought it was a bubble. >> reporter: they may use twitter. but they won't be investing in it. at least not yet. >> we don't really plan on investing in twitter because we're more of the long term. that's not to say in the future, maybe in a year we might invest in it. however, if i were to personally invest in twitter i would probably wait a week or so. because the stock in my opinion will be sort of like facebook. and it will go down at first. but eventually will go up to exceed expectations. >> reporter: their inc. stinsti have been pretty spot on. greenhill school's investment club which uses real money has been tracking the performance of the s&p. >> i think it's very exciting to see us actually making a profit. >> now, all of the students we talked to really stressed
advertising as the biggest challenge for twitter. they say the ads that do exist are generally ignored. however, if ads become more visible as they are on facebook, they say they'll use twitter less. maria and bill? >> thank you so much, seema. want to talk to a couple mba students now who are part of their university's investment clubs. get their take on the big ipo of the day. >> we welcome steven morris, member of carnegie mellon's alpha investment club. they would buy it. bo hammon co-president of the fisher finance association at ohio state. they would not buy it. thank you for joining us today. steven, you like it. why woild you buy twitter now? >> i definitely am very positive. i actually would not buy twitter right now. i'll have to correct you on that first. >> you like the company but you don't like the stock. is that it? >> i love the company. it's built for mobile. mobile is where tech devices are going. everyone's telling facebook why can't you be more like twitter and get revenue from mobile.
facebook was copying twitter style in changing status messages. it's usable for young kids who want to talk to their friends. it's usable for someone like myself, someone who's older in being able to look at different news sources to get information. it's also going to provide better data to analyze -- for people to target their potential customers. you're looking at realtime, how they're feeling right now. like the kids in the previous segment said, if there are more ads like there are on facebook, they'll use it less. we don't want more ads. we want better ads. >> you got to find that balance there. >> what about you, bo? how do you separate this popularity of twitter as a company from the decision to either buy it or sell it? >> full disclaimer, i am a twitter user. but in the short term, at the current price, and what's going on with their profit, i'm a little concerned that i would preferably like to see a couple quarters of results. especially look at that r & d which makes up a lot of that loss. kind of get unveiled as analysts dig into it.
particularly i'd like to see where they're going with their twitter television group. i think that that's really a lot of the growth -- they're perceived as is going to come from that. in the long term you can't deny there are 230 million users on twitter. people check twitter. i think people are checking twitter, doing twitter ipo today. that's pretty much or take on it. >> okay. let me say this. i mean, you know, peter lynch would always say, buy what you know. if you're using it, you like the service, you see the impact it's having on, you know, our country or the world, why not buy it? also, you know, long-term investors don't worry about buying at the ipo. and if it's going to go down 10% after that, they buy it for the long term. steven, if you like this company a lot, why not just buy the stock? >> well, when it was initially priced at $26 i was looking maybe low 30s that we would purchase it. >> that's my point. if you're thinking about long term, five years, ten years down
the road, why quibble about $6 in the stock price right now? >> with $6 compounded over five years could amount to quite a bit. i think you might see -- it might not drop down to the low 30s. but i think it's definitely a little -- you know, people have a little bit of exuberance around it now simply because it's an ipo, it's a big name, they want to get in on it. >> so what is your takeaway today? beau, what's your take away and your investment club members from the facebook ipo that's helped you analyze the twitter ipo? what do you come away from both of these deals learning? >> i think what i come away with was the market's reaction in general to the ipo. the opening up at 45 and the climb to 50 really kind of shows a lot of faith in twitter. but specifically you have to think it shows a lot of faith in their future earnings -- future earnings. i don't think they'll become profitable until early as 2015, 2017. i think a lot of people are
buying into that. whether or not that's a reaction kind of where over the corals, it kind of happened with the bubble -- dot com bubble or not, i think time will only tell. so that's kind of how we feel about that. >> okay. in the moment we have remaining let's ask you what you are buying in your club. steven, you first. >> i definitely like apple with their new release of their new ipads, new i macs. going into the holiday season that's going to be a big purchase. i think they constantly continue to innovate. >> even with the weakness the stock has seen? that made them more attractive? >> i was a buyer at 380. i'm tapering off now. i believe in the stock and believe it will continue -- >> watch that word "taper" around here these days. beau? >> we're looking at a lot of home goods and construction right now. because as the economy recovers, the long-term play will be in
that realm as new homes are built and as people refab their existing homes. i think that is the long year or two growth for us. the tech stocks tend to be a little sexier than nails and paint. but i'm along with warren buffett there. i think names and paint can be sexy, too, when it gives you the right return. >> spoken like a true ohio guy right there. >> go bucs. >> heartland. >> appreciate it, guys. see you soon. 20 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. we have a market that is under pressure, down 130 points on the dow jones industrial. nasdaq taking a real hit down better than 70 points. >> if it wasn't enough that we had the twitter ipo today, the october jobs report is out tomorrow. renowned economist diane swan joins us with her outlook coming up and what it could mean to the markets and what the fed will or will not do with it, coming up. after the bell, disney earnings will be out. we will comb through the numbers with the man who runs the magic kingdom. bob iger will join us. so much to talk to him about from the avengers franchise to the update on the relaunching of
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welcome back. some say the stock market is entirely driven by the fed as long as easy money keeps on flowing and rates are where they are, the downside for stocks is limited. that's why the monthly jobs report has been so critical. ben bernanke has made it clear the employment report will be the biggest factor in what the fed does or doesn't do. >> and we will know the latest number, the october report will be out tomorrow morning 8:00:30 a.m. eastern time. you can see it live on "squawk box." our next guest has some good insight on what to expect. with us, it's said here, renowned economist diane swan. she's chief economist and senior manguing director of mesero financial. welcome, renounced economist. >> i don't think i've been called renowned before, but i'll take it. >> i've heard forecast as low as
80,000 jobs for tomorrow. what are you hearing? >> they're all over the place. mine is 110,000. 125,000 on private. none of us really know how the number is going to come out. that's the problem. we think it's going to be a weak number. we're looking for some collateral damage from the report. was there slower than usual hiring in the retail sector, for instance? this is when retailers typically would have been hiring up for the holiday season. if they did hire, did they use them for their hours? a lot of these workers are contingent workers. whether or not they called them in, i know workers that got hired for the holiday season but didn't get hours in the month of october because of the shutdown. manufacturing. was defense manufacturing hit? we know it was. how rapidly did it come back. that unemployment report is going to be a mess. it's going to be higher. >> what's your expectation in terms of retail, right now, diane? such an important part of the economy. you see some misses here. abercrombie & fitch. what's your take in terms of what the consumer is doing going into this important end of year action? >> i actually think we added
insult to injury with the shutdown. consumer confidence was already slowing along with employment and income growth as we went into the shutdown. then, of course, we got that big wham from the shutdown. consumer confidence collapsed along with ceo confidence. that's not good. we've seen it continue to be low even in some of the weekly measures of confidence that have come up after the government reopened. particularly among the younger crowd and under $50,000 earners. those people also saw a rollback in food stamps. they're paying much higher, disproportionately higher taxes right now because of the roll back at the end of the payroll tax holiday from a year ago. the only bright spot from the consumer is the fact that gas prices have come down so much in recent weeks. that's one thing helping us out. it's going to be a very uneven holiday season with a lot of promotions, especially for brick and mortar traditional retailers. >> it's safe to say job growth has not been what ben bernanke would hope for with the quantitative easing. i mean, his job one was to try and help foster an environment to create more jobs.
we're just not seeing that. is that why -- we keep hearing that the fed economists themselves are thinking about lowering the threshold of the unemployment rate that they would want to see before they start thinking about really tightening on the economy. maybe from the 6.5% target they have now down to 6%, maybe even as low as 5.5%. is that just kind of throwing in the towel to some degree? >> actually, it's not. they actually believe that might be more effective than their balance sheet in terms of stimulating job growth in the u.s. economy. so they're going to try to pivot away from the balance sheet use and the purchases they're doing, do the tapering, and hope that the extension of the lowering the unemployment rate or saying they're not going to raise rates, keep that punch bowl going and everyone dancing on the dance floor, seeing more of them till 2016, that would certainly change the perspective of financial markets and hopefully dampen the pressure on the fed to keep buying at this incredible pace of asset purchases. >> so, i mean, what do you think this story -- how does this story end in terms of tapering?
when are you expecting a tapering? and do you think it's -- we haven't seen it because the economic data is just not there? we've got an economy bumping along the bottom? >> one, i do think when we will see it, it will be janet yellen's moment in march. how fast can they taper once they start it? they originally wanted it to be gradual. i think a lot of that is going to depend on their messages. the economy is going to be weak at the beginning of the year. we'll gain momentum. fiscal drag will be less of a drag. hopefully the housing market comes back, too. all of this is little, little, little. not enough. you'll see the fed out there probably through the fourth quarter still buying asset purchases. that's a lot of asset purchases over the last year. >> they've got to moderate that at some point. >> great to talk with you, thanks. 12 minutes left in the trading session here at the dow. down 137 points. we're heading -- let's see.
that is about the low of the day right there. we're heading back to the lows here as we head toward the close. >> might be bad day for the overall market. not for twitter. great start to the stock's trading history. where will it close? the final twitter trades of the day coming up. try saving that ten times fast, bill. >> i'll listen as you try that. later on the closing bell, big earnings from two big companies. priceline and disney. disney ceo bob iger will be with maria in the first on cnbc interview right after those numbers come out. that's coming up on the "closing bell." do not go anywhere. bny mellon combines investment management & investment servicing,
eight minutes left. selling is intensifying. we had the note from art cashin was that it was about $350 million to the sell side for sale. that's not a lot. but we are setting lows for the session right now. the dow down 150 points. nasdaq down 75 points right now. >> big move. joining us now is keith bliss. good to see you, keith. we were remarking, it was good to see a big crowd around twitter today. a little deja vu. >> humans actually trading. >> a lot of them. >> i think what struck me was this was the meeting of the new
economy in the old market structure, what we saw play out today. it was really fascinating to see. everybody got to witness what it's like to open an ipo inside of this marketplace. it's a unique way to open an ipo as opposed to electronic marketplaces. obviously we feel it's the best way to discover the right price to bring it out to match up buyers and sellers and get them their price. >> it worked. it's been a steady trade, too. you haven't seen a lot of volatility that you get sometimes when a stock is mispriced on the ipo. >> that's right. more to that, when it comes out, when you discover pricing the right way you take your time, deliver it, unthrou -- as oppos having volatile gyrations on the open. >> what do you think is going on right now? a market down 150 points. selling and balances intensifying? what can you tell us? >> one of the things we have to keep in mind is it's november 7th. if somebody is up 25% for the year, they've likely length of time the market on an institutional basis. they're standing on the
sidelines. the market over last few days has felt complacencomplacent. the other thing we've started to see in the last couple days, we started to see some rotation into some very defensive type of sector. >> yep. >> small caps are selling off. nasdaq as you just noted is selling off very hard. utilities, despite everything selling off today, they were showing support. telecom, industrials, basic materials, those types of name. you're seeing a bit of that rotation. you're also seeing bonds being bought a little bit here. i think people are getting a little bit nervous about a taper, but that's too soon to tell. on the s&p 500 standpoint, think we're going to move back and forth between 1720 and 1770 probably for the remainder of the year. i don't get too nervous about it. until we get down to 1640 on the s&p, which was the september lows. >> i was just going to say, cashin was identifying 1755 initially as support levels for the s&p. then it became resistance after it broke through it.
we're going well below that now with the s&p down 23 points at 1747. >> that's right. our next stop is at 1741. also what happened over the last couple days is we had a lot of momentum that was built in at the end of october. we started to see those rallies. that was stripped down the last couple days, too, when we saw the rotation. for our move in our quantitative work, the next move would be down as a result of that. we get to a short term oversold around 1700. again, i'm not really worried about this. it wouldn't surprise me to see a move down in those levels. >> the rotation is out of momentum over the near term. >> absolutely. out of momentum and out of growth. if you have concerns about tapering or economy or anything like that, you'll see people start to move money into those defensive names. that's what we're seeing now. >> keith, thanks so much. >> thank you, sir. always good to see you. as we head to the close, we head to the closing countdown and see how twitter closes for this day. a big day for the ipo. >> a hot day for twitter, tough day for the rest of the market. after the bell, stay with us. disney ceo bob iger is with me.
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willis of albert freed. successful ipo. number on twitter for the day. up 73% at $45 after the ipo was priced at $26 last night. we were just talking how it's great to see human beings actually trading on the floor. >> it's amazing what can happen you let professionals do the job. we're glad to have twitter here. i think it will send a message if you want to do a successful ipo this is going to be the place to do it. >> meanwhile rest of the market is going south here. what's going on? down 147 points now. >> depending on what you trade, technicals broke down 1755 on the s&p. it broke that. now that's become resistance. also if you follow the astrological charts. this is a major day for that. all the stars literally lined up for this kind of correction. that's the only explanation away from the ecb having an impact on the currency markets. >> where they cut their rate from half a percent to a quarter of a we apercent. nasdaq getting clobbered. >> keep an eye on the russell 2,000.
one of the leaders going up again, leader on the way down today. >> thank you very much. >> pleasure. >> there we go. going out on the day with a gain of 72% on twitter on its first day of trading. big day there. we got earnings from disney coming up. and ceo bob iger joining maria coming up on the second hour of the "closing bell." do not miss that. i'll see you tomorrow. and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. what a busy day on the street today. the nasdaq really taking it on the chin. we have the dow, the s&p 500 and the nasdaq under selling pressure which makes the twitter story even that much better. first day of trading was so incredible. up 75% on the session. take a look at the market, though. dow down about 149 points here. things did accelerate into the sales side at the close tonight. down about
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