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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  November 8, 2013 12:00pm-1:01pm EST

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yesterday, after one of the sharpest sell-off, we're now seeing a decent rebound. again, the breadth going beyond the financials and insurance companies, as well the russell 2000 doing okay. taking it on the chin this morning, gold. >> and twitter. >> that's right. >> so many more questions. answers next with the "halftime" report. from us, have a great weekend. >> and have a great vacation. all right, guys, thanks so much. here's what we're following today. #sell. that's what investors have been doing with twitter today following its rip-roaring ipo. now analyst michael bakter explains why he's giving the stock a cool reception. burger wars. we have a battle royal with cheese, wendy's versus ronald and a debate over the happy meal. and we're following the better-than-expected jobs report, and the move of what it means for your money. live at post 9 at the new york stock exchange, it's ha"halftim" the market is now acting pretty
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well. >> yeah. if you look at it, obviously, energy/materials, people are talking about it. i looked at the financials out of the gate. we saw the financials start to make that turn. we talked about how they've been flat for the whole quarter. if we're going to go higher as we get into the latter part of the year, i think it will be the financials. that's the leg, and we started to see a little bit of that yesterday even, even though we were moving to the downside. citi was in the green. then today, we start to see citi, bank of america, all of the banks really -- >> goldman responsible, and still may be for about a quarter of the dow's move. this is what we talked about yesterday a bit with the thought that there could be a rotation from some of the winners into the losers, financials have underperformed and now they're up big today. >> of course, they're very leveraged, steepening yield curve, which i believe we're going to get. now's really the time for everybody that's been whining about the fed, that it hasn't helped and this and that, clearly it has. there's no empirical evidence to show it hasn't. thess economies globally have
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been improving. just get into the market. if you're in bonds, you're going to get schmeistered. you like that word. there's multiple expansion. they're not yet fairly valued as the economy grows. >> anthony, how about the significant money viewing the jobs report, what the impact could be on the fed and on the rally and what happens over the next six weeks? >> i was with the jpmorgan portfolio manager, $42 billion under management, looking at gdp numbers. if you take out the government -- the state and local governments, and just look at the private sector gdp, it's up about 3.5%. and so, what you're going to see, we believe, is better-than-expected growth going into the first and second quarter, and that's what's causing the rally in the financials. there will be money out there to be lending in the first and second quarter next year. you know, i've always talked about the liquidity issue and the fed not tapering.
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if those numbers are correct, look for the fed to be tapering sometime in march, early for -- late in the first quarter of next year. >> that's a great point with the financials. to the extent you have more jobs, more people are able to get loans, because they fit the requirements. and more companies, if they're building with more people, they're going to be borrowing more money. so it's a great environment for the banks. >> the question is, if you put it on the back of, you know, better-than-expected gdp report, you've had decent isms, and now a strong jobs report, some upward revisions, you had one firm already saying the taper is coming earlier than normal, or than expected. can the market handle it? >> the market can handle it. and in particular, scott, just as pete and anthony and steve have said, the financials, you take a look at that move, it was telegraphed yesterday by moves in citigroup, moves in aig. we talked about a 25,000-lot spread in aig. they bought this very aggressively yesterday. look at aig today, up almost 3%. bank of america, moving up
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strong today. what's weak? some of the guys that could be hurt, or will be hurt in the short term by a jump in interest rates. so pulte is among the weakest. followed by lennar on the home building side. i think on dips there, though, you buy them, because i agree, i don't think we're going to see taper until at least march. i don't think the people that are betting on a december one, i'll take that bet. >> yeah, maybe not december, but maybe before march. what does today's jobs report really mean for the fed and this rally? we're going to hear from the "wall street journal's" john hillsenrath later on, but first, going to steve liesman with his unique perspective and breaking headlines from atlanta fed president dennis lockhart. >> yeah, dennis lockhart saying the fed should continue to, quote, stand in with accommodative policy. what he means by that, he is quoting a book, that says you should stand in against the curve, said the fed has been throwing curve s to the economy including the unreliable
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conditions, and these are the first of comments from the fed officials. he is saying the employment report is a good story, important story, and notes the unemployment rate has fallen but said some job measures are less than satisfactory. so those are the news headlines from dennis lockhart that we just got. you can see not much effect, i think, in the market from the headlines. either the dow or the -- or bonds, but bonds were deeply affected this morning, as you know, guys. i want to show you one way of looking at the jobs numbers. here's the current number, 204. and then, look at the three-month average, which is 201,000. and then the six-month average. what you see there is far from declining, it's been accelerating. so all we thought about there being a slowdown in job growth, actually quite the opposite. it's actually accelerating, and if you look at the bar chart on this, what you see is the three-month average has been on the way up over the past several months. so put that in your investment pipe and smoke it, guys.
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>> i'm wondering, steve, what you make of the way the market initially reacted and the way it's reacting now to the jobs report? >> well, bonds have been pretty consistent. it looks like, what do you want to call it, el capitana, the cliff, the rise steady along the top, the 14-basis point rise there on the left, the big bump-up, 2.74 on the 10 year. the stocks, look, i don't know how you play it. to me, it's good news, but i don't know how the market was priced. was the market priced for more fed easing than the economy needed? or was it priced for the right amount? and i think 200,000 more working people, you guys were talking about this earlier, and the idea is just the right number to look at. the 3.5% of the private sector has grown, and i felt that 2.8 number on gdp was a good number. i'm also not that surprised by the jobs number, because i think the economic data has been better than many people had expected. >> the bottom line, do you think the fed will do anything between, say, now and march?
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does it act, if not in december, sometime before march? >> okay, i think that's possible, scott. i think we have to clear out the noise from the household survey and the 700,000 folks who left the workforce, the 700,000 decline in employment, in that we don't know if that was sort of furlough-created from the shutdown. i've been on the phone with the bls, didn't get to any conclusion. i'll be calling them again in an hour or so to get to the bottom of that. but the fed will want to see that noise cleared out. if we get a really strong december number, say december 6, yeah, it's on that month, and it's on in january. but we have to be, i think, pretty confident in the outlook here. >> steve, thank you so much. we'll talk to you soon. >> can i say one thing, because this is adam salts, singapore, geithner, said if you're looking for a patient on a hospital gurney, and you can give him this much more medicine to get him up, or stop short, the inclination is to give them more
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medicine. think of that in the context of what the fed is going to doing. >> i referenced a firm out on the street with the expectations, now the fed may move earlier. jpmorgan thinks a taper is coming perhaps in january. >> if they do move earlier, they're moving for the right reasons and markets do go up. when interest rates go up. that just happens. >> we mentioned at the very top of the show, what the markets are doing. they are going up, strongly bouncing back from yesterday's big sell-off, and our next guest thinks they're going to keep going up. keith banks is president of u.s. trust, which oversees more than $350 billion in client assets. he's added some new positions, by the way, in his portfolio since we last spoke. he joins us here at post 9. keith, welcome back. >> good to be back, scott. >> give us the read on the jobs report and the overall impact to the fed and the significance in the market. >> we think the jobs report is consistent, we have the healing economy. i agree 100% with what anthony said. people keep saying the fiscal
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drag has been between 1.5 to 2 percentage points, going to neutral next year. so 3%, 4% -- take a central of 3.5% -- that will create positive for underpinning of earnings, we think $108 this year becomes $114 next year. so if you look at valuation, flows are just beginning to turn positive in equities, and we continue to think there's more room to go. >> why, then, is u.s. trust seemingly cautious in their numbers in the way they're looking for the s&p? i see a year-end number at 1,800. >> our new adjusted number, scott, is 1,870, and we've been saying all along we're staying with the view that 2,000 -- we could see 2,000 in 2015. so we are -- we are bullish. but we're also at the stage of cycle now, where growth in earnings and growth in the market will be more consistent with nominal growth in gdp. so i think that view is consistent with that outlook, as well. >> i mentioned how you have some areas of the market you like.
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talk to us. >> right. the area we most recently upgraded was energy. we think energy's a good place to be. global economic growth will be a trigger and a catalyst in some respect. but, also, just with all of the drilling that needs to go on, all of the new technology, so we like the equipment players there, we remain overweight in financials, and we've been overweight and continue to be overweight in technology, as well. >> keith, one of the areas you talk about, energy, driller, is it driller-specific? is it shale play? what is it mostly in the energy space you're really looking at? midtier, big cap? >> it's across the board. we like the companies exposed to the new technology, exposed to the drilling. it's the infrastructure side of energy, pete, more than the broader-based oil and gas place. >> keith, you make some great points. let me ask you this, though, about your investor base, your clients. you've told us before, you gave us insight into whether they're ready to go into equities, get rid of the bonds.
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where does that stand now? >> one of the things this panel has talked about is whether you're in an exuberant period or not, and i don't think we are for several reasons. number one, the conversations we're having with the clients. our clients at u.s. trust have 8% cash, 51% exposed to equities. but the discussion is not the market's up, i need to get in. the discussion is, the market's up, should i get in, or has it gone too far? they're worried about the goflt shutdown. they're worried about the near-default we had. they're worried about iran. the wall of worry has not subsided, so it's been a slow job, not a fast sprint to equities. so i think there's a long way to go. i look at valuation, and it doesn't feel exuberant. flows this year, right now, year-to-date, steve, are about 114 billion positive in equities. there was 600 billion negative over the last five years. again, that feels like the beginning, not the end, of a movement. >> keith, when do you sound the fire alarm? i'm in agreement with you about the lack of exuberance, but when
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do you sound the fire alarm? what would you have to see diagnostically on the market dashboard, if you will, that would cause you to get cautious? >> anthony, we're asset-class agnostic. we have to be as fiduciaries. we don't have to be bullish in equities. we are, because we see the fundamental underpinning. we see an acceleration in economic growth next year in the u.s. and globally. we think that'll sustain. that drives earnings, as i said earlier, to 1.14 next year, 1.20 the year after. >> anything you're worried about? >> the geopolitical side. you have to worry about when tapering does begin, and it will, how the market will react. we think they'll ultimately be able to absorb it. you'll get bumps along the road. it won't be a straight shot upwards. any pullback because of tapering fears, we think, is an opportunity to move more money into equities if the fundamental underpinning continues to be there, which right now, we think it will be. >> they're moving it in there today, keith. thank you so much. >> great to be here. >> keith, thanks, u.s. trust. barclays has made a big call
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on stocks setting the 2014 s&p target to 1,900. that's the guy who did it, barry knapp. he'll join "halftime" in a "first on cnbc interview" tuesday at noon. the top three trades now. united, continental. cut to underweight from equal weight over at barclays today, stating delta is now the better play in that space. weiss? >> i don't think that's anything new. i think they're late to the party. i love the group -- the entire group, ual happens to be my least favorite. favorite remains american and u.s. air. >> priceline is in the green today despite disapointing guidance and separately the company is going to split the chairman and ceo roles, as well. what's the trade here, guys? >> well, i still look at this stock, scott. and this is one of these you look at the q3 numbers they put up, they crushed. this is not an overly priced stock right now. very much like expedia. i they'll both have room to the upside. >> all right. and the gap today?
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that's an interesting story, too. jumping after reporting better-than-expected third quarter sales growth. dr. j, i know you're at the post where gps trades, and it's a good trade today. >> that's right. i'm here with mike, the designated market maker, for gap, that's mike right there. and he points out, of course, that this big move today, we spiked above the 200-day moving average. so the fact the 200-day is right there about 40.30, and we've moved above that, that should be support right around in there. and the fact that turnover has been very strong, a great quarter, i think they will continue with athleta as well as old navy into the christmas shopping season, judge. so a very nice report and nice reward for shareholders. >> no doubt about that. a pretty good year for gps. dwtwitter, twitter everywhe, but the stock is in the red. but the other social media stocks are bouncing back. we have all sides covered. plus, brother versus brother in the "fast food smackdown." the pretzel bacon cheeseburger
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is driving revenue at wendy's. but mcdonald's is reporting strong october revenue. coming up, the najarian brothers battle for your happy meal. after the break, mike santoli says twitter is like the prom queen, but the ending could be anything more than happy. that and much more on "the half." in today's markets, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
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welcome back. we're down here on the floor of the new york stock exchange. right behind us is where twitter is trading. the stock's been under pressure for most of the day today, a day after, of course, its wildly successful ipo. the real questions, mike, mike santoli from yahoo! finance, the business, the valuation. everybody is saying, seemingly, it's too expensive to buy here. >> without a doubt. what's interesting to me, granted, on one day i think twitter got valued for about five years for flawless execution, something that will become much bigger than it is right now. in a weird way, i'm actually slightly encouraged by the fact that almost everybody is saying, wow, how do you buy it? longer term, i think if it bleeds down below 40, it probably gets bought by people who say, i'm not smart enough to know exactly what this is going to become, but i want to own a piece of it, just because of the optionality of it. >> we'll talk to an analyst a little later on who's cautious on it. >> yeah. >> you've gotten your first sell call amid buy calls now, who
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think the stock is a decent place to get in. what do you make of the overall process, what it could mean for the retail investor, the way the stock traded not only yesterday but today? >> it created a buzz. a guy who cut my hair yesterday, asked me about twitter. it's the first in a long time. i think because it's relatively widely known, it might have kind of counteracted a little bit of the facebook taint. facebook, five times the user base. that's actually really not going to be penetrated by 200 million of twitter. obviously, it's the big problem there. is u.s. growth for users. so there will be a quarter down the road where some metric fails and the market loses a little bit of faith in the company, from whatever level. and i think at that point, maybe you see whether this is something that will be a core holding or just a trading instrument. >> it is kind of rare, right, that something like this reaches critical mass. driving yesterday, and you hear on the radio the great john montone, and he's covering twitter and the ipo, and that tells you the buzz the company has generated. the real question going forward is whether the stock price and
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the 70% jump is going to be matched by the fundamentals that are -- >> right. >> -- at stake with the company? >> without a doubt. i think one thing they did right, aside from actually the process of the ipo going well yesterday down here, is they went public at an earlier stage of their development of the monetization process versus facebook. so they actually do have -- i mean, look at all of the other social media stocks that have been complete favorites. linkedin, yelp, even youtube as part of google. >> right. >> what they do could twitter not theoretically do some of down the road? i do think there's actually broad potential. i know that's the bull case. but they're already getting a lot of credit for it in this valuation. >> the case to weight has been made by all of the other social media stocks that went public. >> yeah. >> could you have gotten in much better -- >> that's true. >> -- three months down the road. literally, they were all lower. >> without a doubt. there's not a lot of stock to go around with twitter. we'll see down the road if they open up for a secondary, or something, maybe you'll get pressure and a chance to buy it. >> mike santoli, thank you, of
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yahoo! finance. i mentioned how twitter got the first sell rating. we have another analyst who's cautious, as well, on the stock. web bush's michael pachter has a neutral rating. welcome back to the show. good to talk to you. >> thank you, scott. >> what do you make over my shoulder here how twitter has traded in the first 24 hours as a public company? >> you know, mike santoli said it very well. i'm not smart enough to know what this company can become, and i'm a little surprised that this many investors think they do know. i'm really optimistic about the potential for this company to grow into something much, much bigger than it is. but i don't know that it's going to happen. so, you know, it's trading right now on a lot of faith, on a leap of faith that it's going to double in size pretty quickly. and, you know, it could happen. we modelled it to double in size in about five years. and if it does that, i'm optimistically at about $37. if it doubles faster, then it's probably worth what it's trading at, and maybe more. >> i was going to ask you, sort of, what you thought the fair price for a retail investor to
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get in on this. and i also made the point, and i know you heard it with mike santoli, if you took all of the other social stocks and you simply waited, you had a better entry point? >> yeah, i'm not sure if that's true of linkedin, because that was $45 and it popped pretty quickly. but everybody else here, right? and i think the point about, you know, twitter being earlier in its development is really valid. i mean, linkedin was ramping revenues like crazy and profitable almost from the beginning. but this one, not profitable yet. we have no idea what they intend to spend. i think that people are buying this because, i think, most investors look at it the way i do -- it's barely scratched the surface of users. most old people don't use it. you heard the sports guy talking about the twitter. i heard the npr people, giving out the twitter handles at the end of every show. that started yesterday. they never did it before. so i think as we start to see twitter permeate media, and we've seen it on reality shows, that's when you're going to get the ramp in users, because more people are going to be aware of
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it, more people are going to get on and they'll follow more interesting people. that's where the growth comes from, that drives engagement. and it drives ad revenues. so we'll see. i'm optimistic it will work. i'm not sure about the share price. >> all right, we'll talk to you soon, mike. thanks. >> thank you, scott. >> michael pachter. doc, got the allocation yesterday. what do you make of what the stock is doing today? >> well, i still say, judge, it goes significantly higher. i would be a buyer at that level. it doesn't mean i short it here. i checked with my buddy, john tobacco, at locate stock. he said it costs you about 40 cents to borrow the stock if you can get a good borrow. they say it is very tight. i would wait on trying to short this one. you'll have the options next friday. if you really have to be short, it's the safest way to play the short side. >> anthony, i would love to know what the hedge funds think about twitter. >> okay. so yesterday, i did an analysis of that, to try to take a look at who was trying to own it, who was flipping it in the
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marketplace. it seems in general that this is a story that people have held short term on the hedge fund side. what i also think is interest g interesting, i do believe that goldman sachs will step into the marketplace here and support this name through their capital markets desk at least for the next week or so. they do not want to have happen to twitter what happened to facebook last year, and so, i do believe that this name is going to hold fairly steady. at 50 times revenues -- [ laughter ] -- this becomes a story for the retail investor, and i caution all retail investors out there to be wary, but there's not a lot of hedge funds in the name, scott. >> yesterday on "halftime," roger mcnamee told us which company he's most bullish on. >> you know, yelp and facebook, in my opinion, have the best fundamental opportunity of anybody in the sort of younger companies. and apple is just an exceptionally cheap stock. i do think that apple does appear to be flailing, but the
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stock's so cheap, i don't care. >> an interesting insight that roger had yesterday along with the product demo to go along with it. what do we think, steven? what do we make of his analysis, first and foremost on yelp? >> i don't really know what he still owns in the venture funds in terms of his positions in the companies, or if he has them. that aside, i assume he believes them -- >> i think he said facebook is still his largest holding. >> i bought facebook. i bought it yesterday, bought a little more this morn, because i didn't want to own twitter. i think that's vulnerable. but if you're in that space, i don't do the valuations, facebook is a trade, you have to own twitter at some point. so my bet is that facebook goes through 50 again. that's when i'll sell it. but to me, it's the most mature company in a high-growth cycle, that's why i'd own it. >> pete? >> facebook is mature, but i don't agree with you. i sold the facebook a while ago, week and a half ago, around $50 a share. >> so did i, i bought it back. >> i don't like it at 48. there's plenty of room to gh below. when you look at the valuations,
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some of the numbers people are talking about, maybe it's at least set for a pause, if nothing else, scott. this is an 80% move in a very short period of time. i look for a pause, maybe more of a pullback. >> a lot of the social stocks, doc, have had the huge moves. >> you bet. >> you wonder if the crack starts, it grows larger. >> that's what people were saying last night after the call. it was beneath 9 in the after hours, and now back above 10. up 7% from last night's close. that's why you take advantage of some of the sell-offs. >> i got that call about the market yesterday, from all of the technicians. market's cracked, going to get worse, going to get worse. here we are today. >> every dip has proven to be a buy thus far. >> and that will be true with facebook this time, too. battle royal. the pretzel bacon cheeseburger versus the big mac and najarian versus the other najarian. that's right, a burger brother mackdown coming up next. and the s&p 500 saw the worst decline since august, but we are gaining some back today. a nice move we're seeing in the
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welcome back to the "halftime" show live today from post 9. it's a question debated for years. mcdonald's or wendy's? the big mac or the pretzel bacon cheeseburger? but have no fear, the najarians are here to put that to rest in a brother versus brother debate. john is the wendy's bull, pete is the mcdonald's. >> you can look at the usual metrics, they have a great dividend. look at the yield right there, the fact they continually raise that all the time. you look at valuations, trading forward 16, not too bad. so when you look at the metrics, it's great. i look now to where they are innovating and where are they innovating? it's with the various offerings and the fact they're addressing things on their menus, they're
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constantly tweaking things to make sure everything is better. whether that's smoothies, the mccafe, and now the chicken wings. they continually innovate themselves and the fact that they're working on their menu, especially that dollar menu, or the value menu, as they call it. i think there's a lot of ways they're attacking, doing the right thing. >> doc's looking at me, rolling his eyes. >> that's right. if you want to talk innovation, you have to talk pretzel bacon cheeseburger, because people want that! they want the baconator or the son. i know these are funny names, but they're actually very popular items -- >> yeah. >> -- at a high-price point. $4.59. $6.50. mcdonald's doesn't have anything like that on the menu. i like that. i also like that they -- the customers this go in there say freshness. this is a 51% approval for freshness at wendy's versus 37% for mcdonald's, and also you take a look at things like the mascots. you know, the red-headed cute little girl, versus the red-headed scary clown.
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[ laughter ] i would rather go with the cute little red head than the scary clown. >> please, buzzer go off soon. >> mcdonald's is flat on the year, end of story. >> right? the stock speaks for itself. >> it spoke for itself. [ buzzer ] but now mcdonald's opportunity, and because of the international exposure, it will start to ramp up. when you look at europe, at the asian markets, that's what pushes mcdonald's higher now. >> steve weiss? >> how ironic these two guys fighting over a burger. [ laughter ] i never thought i'd see that. >> we don't fight over checks. >> -- get caught up in the market -- >> pete wants to date wendy. i didn't know that before the debate started. >> and focusing on the hair no less. something they know nothing about. >> you know, that's wrong. >> focus on the stock for me. >> okay. to me, mcdonald's will be a market stock at best. it's mature. we have issues in terms of growth -- value menu, no value menu. wendy's has much more beta. it will cut both ways. bottom line, i'd go with mcdonald's, because i like the
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market. >> it's been a tough stock to bet against. >> yeah. and i don't want -- >> even with some of the issues. >> and even some of the public relations getting into the healthy. even if people aren't buying it, it's good from a pr perspective. >> tell us who you think won tweet us @cnbcfastmoney, use #bull or #bear. the stock market is off the all-time highs and some people think it could move even lower. seema mody has the correction protection trade. hey there, seema. >> hey, scott. the last three times the market posted a 6% move to the downs e downsidownside were all due to worries over the fed, tapering. in may, the dropping from may 22nd to june 24th, utilities losing 7%. financials posted a 5% loss, and consumer staples down by 5%, as well. now, the second major sell-off was in august. the dow lost 897 points. this time, it was financials.
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consumer staples, telecom got hit the hardest. and now the last big market move was in september, september 18th to october 9th when the dow lost 990 points. financials, materials, and consumer staples got hit the hardest then. now, in terms of stocks that fell the most during these sell-offs, check out the list, abercrombie & fitch, cliffs natural resources, d.r. horton and first solar, so a diverse mix of stocks. one thing to note, abercrombie, cliffs, d.r. horton, they're down, first solar, regardless of making the list, is up 95% year-to-date. scott? >> all right, seema, thank you very much. a tough week for tesla, and it's getting worse. it's sinking deeper into the red today. we'll break down the breakdown next. and later, the "wall street journal's" john hilsenrath is here to explain what the jobs report means for today's economy, and what the fed could be thinking. of course, what it means for the portfolio. that's coming up in a little bit on "the half." jackie: there are plenty of things i prefer to do on my own.
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but when it comes to investing, i just think it's better to work with someone. someone you feel you can really partner with. unfortunately, i've found that some brokerage firms don't always encourage that kind of relationship. that's why i stopped working at the old brokerage, and started working for charles schwab. avo: what kind of financial consultant are you looking for? talk to us today.
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let's talk about some unusual activity, always good to watch in these markets, and, pete, you've seen some in the financial, which we mentioned are extraordinarily strong today.
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>> it's been incredible. and it really started yesterday, when you looked at citi, it was in the green most of the day. yesterday, seeing huge trades going off. selling of puts and buying of calls in january. that was interesting. it was the february 52 1/2 calls, trading just under $49 a share. large buyers. but at today, the first 10 minutes of the day, over 60,000 contracts on the call side alone in bank of america. they were buying the november 29th expiring calls. the 14 calls. they were paying 20 cents for those. the stock's already started to move to the upside. huge buyers, scott, across the board in financials. >> it's been a while since the stocks have performed to the level that some people thought they would. >> right. it looks now as they're pushing out and buying extra time, they're looking for the financials to continue to move towards the end of the year. >> and focus on the insurance, too, scott. because aig insurance financial influence, as well as proved aig yesterday, a massive upside buy call. and switching gears to tesla. the shares are selling off for the fourth straight day.
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the latest issue, photos of another model s and a fire. it's the worst stretch for the stock in three years, and back at hq, dominic chu has the latest. >> that's right, scott. let's put it in perspective. here's the chart of tesla since the record high of 194.50 we saw on september 30th. since then, we've seen the three reported fires, the first on october 1st. that one near seattle, washington. then, of course, remember we saw that video. and then, on october 18th, another one reported in mexico, and the most recent, just two days ago in tennessee. let's not forget, also, remember, in addition to the fires, tesla had some disappointing earnings results this past tuesday. all told, they've contributed 30% in terms of declines to that stock over the course of the past few weeks here. so, again, for tesla, it really is a story, not just about fire, but about earnings, scott, as well. >> yeah, dom, thanks. steve weiss, it's mostly a story about just how far and fast the stock has moved. >> yeah. and to complicate matters further, now the buyers of tesla
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have to decide if they want the fire extinguisher to match the interior or the exterior, so another decision. the layer underneath the carriage is quarter-inch thick of aluminum. if you hit any metal debris, it pierces it. if they make it heavier, the car's range will go lower. so to me, this should be an issue that the government focuses on, and i'd still be a seller. i think the stock goes to 100. >> but, you know, all of that stuff is interesting about the mechanics of the car, but what this is a story about is the momentum and fractured momentum and how quickly the air can come out of a bubble. you have to be supercareful on the momentum stocks, particularly ones that are trading outside valuations. having said all of that, i toured a tesla store in massachusetts, my son's actually working there. and this is a phenomenal product if you get a close look at it. >> doc thinks it's a phenomenal stock, too. >> i was -- luckily, pete got me out when i was bullish on the stock, and i told folks i love
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it, i love it, pete convinced me to get out. yesterday, i did buy. i bought by virtue of selling puts, don't need to get into all of the details. but basically, the 134 puts that expire next week were still above that level, but i have taken a third of the position in pain. i soed them for three buck, they're now trading 4.30. i'm hoping i don't have to get a sign stock down there, because i won't want to if we go there. >> the stock up 300%, though, right? all of the noise around it -- >> it cuts both ways. there was no valuation parameter up higher. you still can't just find it on valuation. now that's what you have to look to because the momentum is dead. i'd be a seller it goes lower here. >> it's a phenomenal company. anything could have happened. it's priced to overperfection. >> could have happened, but elon musk actually told us. he said, look, i think this thing is overvalued and he talked, hey, look, some of the lines, we can't get everything we need to get the production numbers. that was out there. and yet everybody wanted to
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ignore that. that's the part i find ridiculous. >> -- hot cars, model x. >> expensive, and they'll have competition coming at them in the luxury world. >> -- bmw i 8. >> is this "halftime" or "motor trend"? >> we're going for the bmw. >> searching for value in emerging markets today in the playbook. they've underperformed the u.s., and my guest next says there's a lot of room to run in that space. and jon hilsenrath is coming up with everything you need to know about the economy's impact on your portfolio and the big moves we could be facing. it's all ahead on "the half." [ male announcer ] what if a small company
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current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. good afternoon, everybody. coming up on "power lunch" at the top of the hour, a special stock screen looking for solid and reliable growth. we came up with four names, and we'll tell you what they are. dom chu will talk about stocks that have probably escaped your radar, and seema mody on what stocks to pick if you have more days like you had yesterday. i don't know what kind of day i had yesterday! i guess it was pretty much a down day. scott, back to you now and the "halftime" team. >> it was fine until the skins game was over. yeah, still reeling from that. >>. >> despite a snapback, emerging markets have underperformed the u.s. markets, and the next guest here continues to see value. it's our "halftime playbook,"
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and let's bring in jay for the xs and os on the e.m.s. george, welcome. >> nice to see you, scott. >> where do you think the big opportunity still exists over there? >> well, it's worth remembering, you're right that the e.m.s have bounced a bit over the past couple of months, some people might say it was a stealth-out performance after a long period of underperformance. but valuations are still reasonably cheap by historically standards, and importantly, actually, if you look at fundamental valuation, the asset class is looking relatively cheap to the u.s. in particular, which obviously has been the big outperformer. >> if you had to put some money to work there and people have a tough time identifying what may still hold value, where do you see it? >> there's good pockets of value within the asset class. quite frankly, some of the cyclical sectors are still cheap. things like consumer discretionary and i.t., and at country level, look at places like china, even russia, which i know is controversial, but nonetheless quite cheap. and as a result, you can find
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value pockets in the asset class. >> the controversy just got added to russia when they came out essentially, the minister, and said, hey, we're cutting our growth targets in half. that typically, when you have gone into a decline in an economy has led to unrest. i know the multiple's low, but in my view, deservedly so. what's your view on that? >> yeah, it's -- you're right, the multiple's low. this is not one of what you would think as a high-growth e.m. country. so this is one of the slower growers, no doubt. in fact, it has some of the demographic challenges you would associate with the developed world rather than the emerging world. this is a market that's not only cheap within e.m. right now, it's actually cheap even relative to its own history. so there's a lot of what i would call controversy or bad news already built into prices there. >> you know, george, you had mexico emerge not only the country but the currency as a pretty popular big-money and hedge fund trade. where do you see it now?
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>> you know, mexico's been a very good story. if you think about the political reforms that have been unfolding this year, we're quite impressed with them. the trouble is that because of those reforms, and, also, because within what's been a struggling e.m. environment, a lot of investors were effectively hiding out in defensive sectors, defensive countries, mexico, frankly, became quite rich as a result of the good news story. so from a gen perspective, we've been fading, because entry prices are somewhat hefty. >> good to talk to you, george. thank you very much for coming on. >> thank you. >> george from jpmorgan. let's do "pops and drops," the biggest movers in the midday trade. nvidia is getting a big play. 26 cents versus 20. they increased the dividend. they'll return $1 billion to shareholders, all the good news for nvidia. >> steve weiss, peabody. >> i bought this one when they
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upgraded steel, and a way to play the steel group. goldman recommends it today, you own it, mid to high 20s. >> pete, rates going up, homebuilders going down, pulte among them. >> i think pulte is getting -- hit harder than they should, scott. i like it down here. when you look at the sales, numbers, the margins impressive. backlog is strong. getting beat up like this, it's an opportunity to buy. >> bigger question. does any of what you just said matter if rates continue to go up? >> if it continues to go up, or a slow pace, they'd still be fine. when you look at historically, we're still extremely low level. people will adjust to some of the higher rates. >> and it's the employment, too, scott. with the employment coming back, potentially, like steve said, more people will qualify. >> all right. and how about jpmorgan, anthony, getting a nice pop along with the overall group today. >> i think it has the great characteristics -- loan growth. but the asset management business side of jpmorgan is booming with the stock market. and so, i expect this name to go higher. >> problem with jpmorgan has been more maybe headlines -- >> yeah.
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>> -- than some of the fundamentals. >> i think that's already built into the stock. they've already taken the reserve for it. and once that's behind them, it'll offer multiple expansion. after the break, the "wall street journal's" john hissen rath is here, and you he thinks the jobs report and impact could be on ben bernanke and his colleagues at the fed and, of course, your money when we come back. pulte, pulte,
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jon. all right. welcome backp. not so fast, pete najarian. they're quick but not always right. pete made a bearish call on staples. >> when you look at it with lower sales, lower margins that's a terrible combination so -- and the competitive landscape is going to get only more difficult for these guys right now. i think you can wait on the stock with this pullback you're seeing. >> you were getting all choked up about that. >> i was choked up. i couldn't believe it. that was that pretzel burger. >> wait a second here. i have to free up some of that plaque. >> take you guys down every now and then. what do you do? >> i man up. i said stay away because i thought that there was more downside. i missed this move to the upside. with the metrics we had i just didn't see the upside move we're seeing out of staples. >> we deliver with trades on
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four stocks on the twitter feed, my con, barracuda. >> micron. >> i would sell a little. keep hearing rumors and some have been confirmed actually that there's more capacity coming on into the market. micron is a second tier player to sandisk. i think they're top heavy and it's a commodity business. >> how about doc, barracuda? >> opened up big and strong, judge, just a phenomenal performer this week. several of our clients that called that did get allocations. i did not. >> busiest week for ipos in an awfully long time. >> pull this up. cuda, vicious pop to the upside and rather somewhat selling off, i would wait until it goes sub20 to get back into this one. i don't think you have to chase. >> f 5, pete? >> i love this space, the sector and i think this is one of those names at these levels web you look at the valuations of
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something in this optimizing the whole networking world one of the names was over 100, here back at 80, i think it can go higher. >> been some people who have looked at what the auto stocks have done and raised questions about bubbles in that space too. what do you think about ford here? >> i like ford. i like the autos in general. i think they'll be better than expected car sales next year. these guys have done a great job managing costs. the big rick for ford is all the chatter about alan mulally possibly going to microsoft. i think that would be damaging to the long-term story. >> sell on the news. >> i would be cautious on the ill na name. people like him matter in a company like this. >> we'll do final trades and who won the mcdonald's versus wendy's debate on the other side of the short break. i have low testosterone. there, i said it. see, i knew testosterone could affect sex drive, but not energy or even my mood. that's when i talked with my doctor. he gave me some blood tests... showed it was low t. that's it. it was a number.
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1%. financials helping to lead the way on the better than expected jobs report that has had reverberations throughout several markets today. take a look at the interest rate complex. the ten year, there it is, big spike off the bat. 274 is where the yield on the ten-year note currently sits. how about a check on gold. down sharply today, down almost 2%, a loss of 25 bucks, $1283 there. as for our big debate, you've spoken and tweeted the results in and said that wendy's was the winner, dr. j, over mcdonald's. >> either way it was a read head. >> dock, give us a final trade. >> energy has been hot, heating up all week. noble energy, nbl, big buy. >> tesla all week because of the slide, i've owned puts in this for a while and taking some of that off. i think there's more downside and i'm taking profits right now. >> what's your best final trade? >> short gov right here through
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the tbf. >> and anthony. >> long goldman sachs here. great leverage play into what i think is improving financial conditions. >> new dow component having a significant impact on the trade today. that does it for us. have a terrific weekend. we'll see you on the other side. "power lunch" begins right now. >> lace them up, "halftime" is over. the second half of the trading day starts now. >> thank you very much. 204,000 jobs created in october. that a strong number. so have americans been under estimating the strength of the economy? what does it mean for the fed, for the stimulus? and most important of all, what does it mean for investors like you? that is on our agenda today. three key stock story lines, growth, stealth and fear. strategic ideas for all three. this really could be the storm of the century. look at the eye of that typhoon, this


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