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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  November 11, 2013 3:00pm-4:01pm EST

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in my world, no such thing of too much money. >> i'm willing to give it a try. >> a sweet ride. >> seat 36-c on the 737 isn't cutting it anymore. robert, thank you. >> "closing bell" is next. hi, everybody, welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. today coming to you live from the schwab impact conference in washington, d.c., where the top investment advisers are gathering to try to figure out where this market heads from here. once again, bill, we're in unchartered territory. >> yes, we are. i'm here at the new york stock exchange and it seems this market wants to at least edge higher, as it's doing today. the dow would close at a new high with any positive close today. the s&p needs about a point and a half, essentially around 1772
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to hit a new all-time high. we're very close to that, as a matter of fact. >> one question here at the schwab impact conferences, whether or not the individual investor is back. there's a debate on that issue in certain circles. probably nobody has better intelligence on that than the man who runs schwab, ceo walt b bett bettinger is with us. >> in fact, schwab's stock is at a multi-year high as a result. here we go again, my co-anchor, the budget battle could be hitting an impasse already. taxing the so-called rich more is apparently back on the table for some top democrats. there is already concern this is a nonstarter for the gop. so, the question is, are we setting ourselves up again to go toward the brink, as we did a couple months ago? we'll lay out what's being targeted and how much it might
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cost you if you are considered wealthy by washington, d.c. deja vu all over again. >> for sure. let's check the markets as we approach this final stretch for the day. the dow jones industrial average showing a gain in the session by 20 points. as you know, any close positive above where we close on friday would be another all-time high for the investor. nasdaq, where we're still floating around 13-year highs or so on the nasdaq with a gain in the session of 2 1/2 points at 39.21. s&p 500 also in unchartered territory. we only need a little more than a point to close at an all-time high. 1772 is the all-time closing high. we're up about a point right now. >> let's start our closing bell exchange today. we have michael yoshikami at the new york stock exchange, also a cnbc contributor, steve saks,
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michael hennessey is out in the stratosphere somewhere. >> he's with me. >> i thought he was. good see you all. >> michael, here we go again. very strong jobs report on friday. the blue chips at least liked it but the secondary stocks, the small caps, have been suffering lately. what's going on in this market, do you think? >> i like the sendingary stocks. of the beta stocks have rallying. look at tesla, i realize there's fires going on there but secondary stocks have had huge rallies. i think what you're going to start to see as fundamentals, granted, on the slow basis, start to improve you'll see core stocks continue to pick up momentum. >> maria? >> neil hennessey, what about momentum? they have been driving the day all this year and then when they started to roll over the last couple of weeks. would you put new money in the market now and where are the groups that lead, if in fact we were to see the rally continue? >> if you're not in the market at all, you should be committing
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some money to the market. if we get a 5% correction, everyone will start to whine, but they'll close up the year at 17%, 18%. there's still a lot of opportunity on the upside. i think you'll see the dow jones over the next three to five years at 20,000. that's not far, though. it's only 5% a year. >> but are you waiting for that 5% correction to get deeper invested? >> absolutely not. i think that a mistake -- the real problem is people are still on fixed income. the other problem is where they're putting their money in the equity market. they're not putting it in the u.s. equity markets. they're putting it into foreign equity markets. and that's a big deal. because if you look -- >> like japan and europe? >> yeah. europe mainly. if you look from january 1st through, $103 billion has gone into mutual funds but only nine went into u.s. equities. so, there's still sitting on 3 odd trillion in fixed income and
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2.7 in money market funds. >> let me add another voice to our exchange. g gemma godfrey joins us tonight from london. thank you for staying late, as always. >> thank you very much. >> two things that happened last week affecting the market, i think, this week. last week the ecb cut rates on thursday. then we had that very strong jobs report on friday. what do you see happening as we go into this new week here, gemma? >> well, the concern that's starting to eke out in terms of the ecb rate cut is the fact there was german opposition to this cut. the cut itself was maybe at best symbolic, at worst shambolic but it disincentivizes banks to lend. rates are already so low so it doesn't make much of a difference. what's coming to light now is germany opposed this rate cut. which means there's growing
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discourt in europe. in the next few weeks, european leaders have to sit down and hash out the strategy for how they're going to have structural reforms. these are reforms crucial to economically solidifying europe to coming out of the recession and actually have that greater tangible impact. >> it's a great point. >> i learned a new word, by the way, shambolic. >> exactly. >> i like that. >> gemma, as we're waiting for this recovery to take traction in europe, this market has been on fire. money moving into equities throughout europe. do you think europe has gotten ahead of itself, then? >> in terms of getting ahead of itself, it's when money is being put to work in low quality names when actually it's just being used to chase returns. our point here, which i think a lot of the other guests today can actually comment on, is the fact they've been going into etfs, exchange traded funds.
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the reason there's so much of a concern there is that this is more of a trading mentality to get quick access to markets as opposed to long-term specific -- you know, specific stock names. what we've seen, to quantify this, it's the most volatile period on record for etf flows. we're seeing swings in flows amounting to six times the 13-year average. again, do you want to be either the last one to leave that party? no. this sh a concern. if you're in a low-quality name which actually, you know, the market might be leaving. >> you know, steve, i think you're a little more cautious than most people right now. you're not expecting the melt-up some people see as long as quantitative easing is still in place, right? >> right. you know, would he see constructive environment for equities, particularly the last six weeks of the year. there's been a building consensus on the street about a late '90s style melt-up, given a lots of different factor, the fact the fundamental picture in the u.s. is extremely strong
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compared to the last couple of years, you factor in european strength, factor in global gdp growth, a lot of tail winds, not a lot of headwind. you also have a lot of performance-chasing going on from professional money managers, hedge fund managers and the like. all that being said, we feel you have a very good constructive rally continuing through the first of the year. i don't picture it being the late '90s style melt-up we tend to be talking more and more about. >> what would be the worst thing -- i'll ask anyone this -- taking profits now and missing a further move upward in this market or hanging in there and thinking it's going to continue higher and we get a correction of some kind as we head into the close? >> i think the better move is to hang in there. this correction could be 5 %. it could be 5 % up the next week. i think there's so much momentum, as steve just mentioned, so much momentum in stocks right now, as indicated by flows of money, that i think that it's very, very dangerous, in my view, to actually get out of the market and actually then try to figure out when that
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thing's going to drop 5% and then jump back in. it's going to be a tough call to make. >> i agree. you don't want to time this market. >> no. it's timed in the market. it's not time in the market. that's how you make money long term. >> how? >> just being in the market. and staying there. buying quality. which you're seeing now is all companies are pretty much doing the same thing, maria. they're initiating dividends. they're raising dividends. stock buy-backs, make, acquisitions. that's good for the stock market. forget about washington politics and forget about the economy. these companies are making tons of money and they will continue into the near future. so, you want to be in the stock market. >> all right. >> gemma godfrey, as we go here, discord on interest rate policy. the ecb has nothing on the federal reserve. we have a patent on that already. thank you all for joining us today. >> exactly. thank you. >> japan's getting into the -- >> yes, now they're figuring it out, too, as a matter of fact. not a big move for the stock market on this veterans day but
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a lot of big movers to talk about. dominic chu rounds them up right now. >> thanks, bill. let's talk about tesla first. rebounding concerns about car fires starts to die down. over the week ending, the owner of the latest model s car to erupt in flames said he would buy another car in a heartbeat. he went on to say further that given the severity of the accident, this car, the tesla model s, saved his life. also moving, gogo shares moving higher as they raised the high end of full year forecast as more airlines signed up for those gogo flight services. shares on the move. viropharma surging, being bought for 50 bucks a share. that's a 27% premium to its close on friday. shir is attracted to viropharma's pipeline of lucrative drugs to treat rare diseases. goldman sachs downgrading eli lilly from sell to neutral
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citing the drugmakers' pipeline and concerns about the future. some other major sales contributors are losing their patents in the coming months, like cymbalta. the patent expires at the end of the year. >> as we head to the close, the bond market is closed because of the holiday. so, we don't have much direction for the stock market based on interest rates today. the direction is generally higher. dow is up 17. that's enough for a closing all-time high. the s&p is very close to it right now, maria. >> where is this market headed next? seema mody will be up next showing us the fundamentals. they says the fundamentals say higher but dominic chu says they show selloff. also, facebook director marc andreessen's venture capital firm has sold a third of the facebook stake to the tune of $100 million, following dan
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niles exiting that stock at $50 a share. should you follow their lead? was $50 the magic number for facebook? both sides of that issue coming up. and hiring our hero. up next we'll show you which wall street firms are giving jobs to the veterans. customer erin swenson ordered shoes from us online
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the holidays can be an especially difficult time. everything's different now. sometimes i feel all alone. christmas used to be my favorite. i just don't expect anything.
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what if santa can't find me? to help, sleep train is holding a secret santa toy drive. bring your gift to any sleep train, and help keep the spirit of the holidays alive. not everyone can be a foster parent, but anyone can help a foster child. welcome back. wall street and main street launching big hiring our heroes initiative on this veterans day. hampton pearson with the story. >> reporter: rear live at the wall, vietnam veterans memorial, a place visitors come every day of the year to honor military veterans for their service and sacrifice. earlier today across the potomac river at arlington national cemetery, president obama, after a wreath-laying ceremony there, told the crowd it's time to focus on the next generation of veterans, the post-9/11 group coming home from the war in afghanistan.
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in the next five years, an estimated 1.5 million service members will be leaving the military looking for civilian jobs. their unemployment rate is 10%, well above the national average. but this is as large and small are stepping up. hiring our heroes. major initiative laurnnched by u.s. chamber commerce has a pledge for 500,000 jobs for veterans. on wall street, jpmorgan chase has enlisted more than 123 fortune 500 companies committed to hiring at least 200,000 vets by 2020. we are expecting more announcements this week. meanwhile, the vets we talked to say their message to potential employers, give us a chance to prove to you that what we learned in the military we can, in fact, apply to the civilian economy. maria and bill, back over to you. >> hampton, thanks so much. 45 minutes until the closing bell sounds. a market fractionally higher but
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in record-setting territory. dow jones up about 19 points. facebook finally had caught fire. was red hot until it crossed the $50 a share market and dan niles and now marc andreessen started selling. when we come back, we'll find out if you should follow the smart money on that dread. was $50 the top? also, individual investors are pouring money back into stocks again. is the retail investor talk? we'll talk to the ceo of charles schwab coming up. i got this. [thinking] is it that time? the son picks up the check? [thinking] i'm still working. he's retired. i hope he's saving.
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sflu welcome back . the dow is up 17. the s&p is very close. you need to be around 1772. we're just under that number. the nasdaq has a two-point gain. bob pisani, pretty quiet day otherwise because of veterans day. >> yeah. bond market isn't open. we cue off the bond market these days. that ten-year yield moving up, that caused a little problem last week. but still, take a look at today. the important thing is we were lower earlier in the day because financials were weak. they improved a little bit. they have come off their highs today. tech and financials are really what moves the markets. they're about one-third of the whole market cap of the s&p. so if tech and financials are up, generally the stock market will be up overall. a couple sectors moving. 3-d printers, some think it's the fad. the stratasys numbers were
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excellent last week. voxeljet, 100% increase in a month. a remarkable move these companies have had. retailers, a number of them announced they would be open on thanksgiving day, opening their doors. all of them are to the upside today. they ought to make that announcement every year. carl icahn having an influence, getting two board seats, lowering the number of seats and east he gets two of them on the board. that's a big victory. a lot of talk on the front page of the journal. retail investors are back. in 2013, bill and maria, $167 billion have come into mutual funds. that's a lot of money when you consider the prior five or six years, there's been outflows except for a little inflow in the year of 2010. sentiment's a little euphoric right now. but the markets are stay y
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euphoric for quite a while. news out andreessen sold facebook share at $50 a share, they still hold 4.6 million shares. we're connecting the dots today. two weeks ago on this program noted technology investor dan niles told us he sold his entire facebook stake at around $50 a share. >> what is it about that number? is that the so-called number smart money was waiting for, $50, to start selling? should you follow suit? let's talk about it. we're joined by david pearl from epic investment partners and kessler from raymond james who has a buy on this stock. you don't even like, you wouldn't buy facebook right now, you think it's too expensive. $50, was that a magic number, do you think, for a lot of traders? >> no, no. the dollar number is not a magic number but the valuation is. it's 45 times earnings. the s&p's at 15 times earnings.
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there's a lot of good expectations already imbedded in this stock. it's a good company. there's no question about it. but they're facing a number of challenges on their conference call. they mentioned they really can't increase the number of ads that they serve mobile users. they've already raised price. so, it's really about adding different monetization. it's going to be incrementally harder. at these valuations, you know, anything that slows down -- if the rate of growth slows, that's it for the stock. so, we just think the valuation is too rich. >> aaron, what about you? you have a buy rating on the stock and a target price of $63. what are you seeing these big technology investors might not be? >> this stock has doubled here. i mean, you are looking at the stock close to $50. we still think there's upside, though. so, over the next year, the company still growing 50% this year. we're looking for roughly 35%
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growth in 2014. and we think the company's seeing better leverage in their model today. so f you look at the core, they actually reduced the op ex and gave lower guidance for operating expenses going guard here. >> you don't see the growth restraint david is identifying, especially in the mobile arena where they fell they hit the limit on the amount of advertising they can offer customers on the mobile platform right now? >> yeah, so it is a little more limited on the mobile side in terms of increasing the outload as they come in on the conference call. however we think they're still upside to pricing. if you talk to advertisers and agencies, they are strong on facebook. we think that leaves room for increased price going forward. video monetization, which we think could be much higher prices and display add veer tve. and instagram, they're talking monetization right now. there are applications to drive the stock higher. >> anything, david, you think
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facebook can do to make you buy this stock? would you buy it on a big pull back? are you expecting that? >> right. i just think the stock really has balanced upside versus downside. it's not necessarily it's a short. but longer term, you know, the risks are many. you know, twitter just went public. my teenage children are really favoring other social websites as facebook becomes their parents' site. it's hard to maintain your dominance and coolness as the younger generation moves on to the next new thing. and there's going to be a lot more public offerings of social media coming down the pike, so there's just more competition. and google can't be left out. google's selling at half the valuation of facebook. it's just a competitive area. it seems there are better ways to play the growth of social media. and, you know, again, nothing -- nothing is a catalyst for the stock to go down. but if it went down significantly, that would -- we'd reassess.
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>> yeah, what about that, aaron, it's anecdotal but i'm in david's camp on the demographics that are appealing to facebook right now. you know, i'm always joking in my house we call it fogiebook because my wife and i are on it more than our kids are these days. they have moved on to other social platforms. longer term, does facebook have a future with the millennial generation, do you think? >> we still think it does. it's not a surprise, and we did survey work that showed the younger, teenage group doesn't spend much time on facebook but we still think they have a big audience. if you're seeing your high school friends, you don't want to be on facebook. when you go to college, you want to stay in touch with your friends, and as you grow older, that becomes more important staying in touch. it's not just the set-up for the younger generation. it's also not a zero sum gain. we think twitter can do well, facebook and other social
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networks as well. >> what kind of a growth rate should we be expecting from facebook, let's say, in the next three years? >> yeah. we're still expecting 30% type of revenue growth on a three-year basis so we think that would support the valuation getting toward our $60 price target. >> david, what about the points aaron's made about the other kinds of platforms that facebook has available to it that it can use to grow new areas? we're just thinking about facebook right now as it exists. the people at facebook are pretty smart about finding new areas of growth out there. don't you think they'd be able to do that? >> well, if you ask younger people what they're most interested in is pictures and video, so clearly instagram's positive, but other than youtube is even a bigger deal because video outweighs photos. so, all of these competitors are working on visual social media websites, tumblr, so it will still be competitive going out
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in the future. again, if you look at the history of these sites, there was myspace, there was friendster, now facebook. it's very hard to hazard a guess that facebook will be dominant ten years from now. the world just changes so, so quickly. and you're really looking at in the u.s. actually beginning to slow, although non-u.s. growth for facebook is still very, very healthy. >> would you buy twitter, david? >> you know, twitter has even more of a modernization problem, to tell you the truth. you know, when you have 800 million or more registered users, i'm one of them, but only 10 0 million are active, and i'm one of those, so the problem is how do you monetize the few people who really use it a lot? and it's a very short character -- you know, it's not even a graphical interface. it's harder for twitter. i do think google has more properties. there's a number of other chat
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sites like whatsup or snapchap. other things will come up so i think there will other investing opportunities. >> great point. thanks to you both. >> got it. heading to the close. 30 minutes left. the dow is in positive territory, in record territory, i should say. the s&p is teasing us right now. we're up a point and change and we need another like half a point to be in record territory on the s&p. >> meanwhile, then there's washington. amid the obama care mess, budget talks are heating up on capitol hill. democrats are taking aim at some tax breaks they say are only benefiting wealthy americans. we'll tell you what's at stake and what taxes may be going up if they get their way. >> washington state is giving boeing in millions in incentives to stay put. meanwhile, office depot is threatening to move its headquarters out of illinois unless it gets millions in tax
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credits. illinois, though, is pushing back. should states give tax breaks to keep jobs and businesses inside their borders? that debate still to come on the "closing bell." [ imitating car engine ] that's mine. ♪ that's mine. that's mine. ♪ come on, kyle. ♪ [ horn honks ] that's mine...kyle. [ male announcer ] revenge is best served with 272 horses. get the best offers of the season now.
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welcome back 37
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welcome back 37 lawmakers are gearing up for a big fight over the budget, again. and the battle lines may be clearer this time. a new push by democrats to revive a plan to scrap tax breaks for upper income americans. john harwood has details for us. >> bill, actually in this case, a fight might represent some progress because so far, ever since the deal to reopen the government, not much of anything has happened between the two parties who are supposed to be negotiating this deal. now, negotiators have lowered their sights significantly. it's either a small deal of around $150 million or a really small deal of around $50 billion. there's been no formal exchange of offers yet. there's only a month to go before the deadline that was set when they reopened the government. democrats are hoping to get some sort of framework by thanksgiving but that looks like a longshot. the key sticking point is, is there going to be revenue? republicans held out one idea for a user fee, on airline passengers increasing the amount that people pay for legs of a
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journey. democrats have put out the possibility of a whole range of breaks targeting wealthy people. deductions for vacation homes, for yachts, corporate loopholes, all sorts of things, things wealthy people do with i.r.a.s to shield their income. both sides have to address the key question. is there going to be revenue that is tax increases in this deal or not? and that is unresolved. they do have a meeting on wednesday. and we'll see whether they can kick things into gear. it's been working very slowly so far, maria. >> thank you so much, john. joining us with reaction to the story, and how she sees all of this playing out, i'm pleased to be joined by former republican senator from maine, olympia snowe. senator, good to have you on the program. >> thank you, maria. >> what are your initial thoughts on this proposal? i remember when i first left the senate and how upset and
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annoyed -- not annoyed, but how upset you were at the process that had changed, where all we do is fight and we're not getting anything done. democrats want to eliminate these tax breaks. how do you see it? >> well, it's more of the same. and i think both sides better reconcile their differences and develop a budget agreement by december 13 th. i don't think it's acceptable in any fashion if they don't. so, they have to work through those differences. the point is over the last few years, they continue to fight about it, so they can take it to the next election. and position themselves in a way that leverages them for gains, you know, in congress and other seats across the country with respect to legislative and gubernatorial races. i mean, it continues to go on. instead of taking concerted action to reverse the subpar growth, they have only exacerbated the problems by their failure to address these issues. so it's been, unfortunately,
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legislative neglect for too many years. >> the reported reason for the tax breaks is to replace the money for the sequestration rates. is this a way to get around sequestration? >> it's certainly one of the avenues of possibilities. i think both sides have to give. i think the democrats will have to look at some of the entitlement agencies drawing from it. the republicans looking at the tax loopholes, i don't see why that's a major impediment to reaching an agreement on the budget. i don't think there's an alternative other than the fact they have to come out of that meeting with an agreement. because i think that, frankly, they're going to face a major outcry and backlash from the public, as they should. >> and both sides have their own ideologies. the gop, you know, says, look, we're not going to agree to any more increases in taxes. and the democrats are saying, look, you know, we are not going to go guaforward without taxing going higher. are they missing the whole point, getting back to growth?
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getting jobs created? we keep hearing the same fight over and over again. and yet we're bumping along the bottom on a 2% economic grower. >> i absolutely agree with you. that went to the core of my frustration when i made a decision not to run. you're absolutely right. it's an argument that i constantly made, that the economy wasn't doing well. it was worst post-recession recovery we had in history. we should not accept these low growth rates, the low job creation numbers, because it's hurting the average american. and yet all we saw in congress and washington was the posturing for the political position and not about crafting a sound policy for the country. >> so, what do you think is step number one? i mean, could this be seen as a starting point for negotiations against that december 13th deadline? >> it could be. >> so how should republicans respond? >> so, they should come up with their alternative and say how
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they think they can derive the savings and where they think they can meet democrats halfway, and the democrats have to meet republicans halfway. that's the point here. have you to understand one another at a negotiating table. and take from that what you can agree to and what you can't. you both can reconcile those differences. they're not irreconcilable. they just make it so so they can take it to the next election and make an issue out of it. most people understand, both sides have to give. >> most people understand we can't afford the entitlements the way they are now, as we're living longer and labor participation rate keeps going down. you did an op-ed with former bush administration adviser karen hughes. you called it breaking the budget log jam. americans are frustrated by this bipart negotiation, for sure. and the fact we cannot get anything done. talk to us about that op-ed and what should be done now in terms of moving forward. >> well, first of all, they must reach an agreement by december 13th. on the budget.
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and they also should include in that extending the funding of the government rather than having it fall into the next year and creating more uncertainty, remove that uncertainty from the government for the rest of the fiscal year 2014 up until the end of september next year, and then also extend the debt ceiling for the same period of time and beyond. the point is, we have to remove the shadow of uncertainty that's casting over this economy. the uncertainty is posing serious risks. there have been study after study that has indicated the risks have been tremendous and the failure to create the kind of jobs, because it's directly attributed to the polarizing debate that's occurred in congress on these issues over the last few years. if you think about it, we haven't -- congress didn't address any one of the major issues they should have had a profound economic on economic growth. >> do you have one example of how this is risking the economy? we speak to business people all the time that say, we're sitology cash, we don't want to
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make any decisions in terms of hiring people, investing, is that what you're talking about? >> absolutely. macro economics, because of the polarizing debate and uncertainty over the last four years, we've lost 900,000 jobs. it's a direct hit on the economy. i think further if we had higher level uncertainty base on the studies, we would have several million more jobs we have today. that would have benefitted the average american and boosted the confidence of investors. more importantly, the american people. yes, there is a cause and effect of the failure of congress to address these structural fundamental issues. that's why they need to get back and do the nation's business. no budget for four years. largest economy in the world has been operating without a budget. it's almost inconceivable and incomprehensib incomprehensible. >> thank you for joining us on the program, olympia snowe. we're in the final few minutes of trading. 20 minutes before the closing bell sounds. a market that is higher and once again in record territory.
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up 20 points on the dow industrials, bill. >> this is how quiet it is today, maria. i got the word from art cashin, the imbalance, $4 million to sell. that's quiet. the main event, marvelous seema mody says fundamentals will drive this market higher but dominic chu counters with an uppercut. he says there's a storm coming for stocks. they battle it out when we come back.
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welcome back. the dow and s&p 500 trying to close at new all-time highs. can this market continue to defy gravity? >> it appears we have a disagreement in the news room. dominic chu says no way and he has technical analysis to prove it but seema mody is looking at the fundamentals and she likes what she sees. they're here to battle it out. be nice. >> we'll try. we tooction a poll on and 50% say it's going higher and only 20% say that's it's going lower. in terms of what's going on to push the market to new highs, the market watchers i spoke to
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on the street say, sector rotation. art hogan says, investors won't be exiting the market in the near term. instead, they'll be rotating into undervalued sectors. less of an exit, more of a rotation. that will provide another leg up to this market. that's what i'm hearing. >> here's something you want to consider, though, because i see financials up there right now. maybe it's a sector rotation. but here's an interesting point from carter worth at onen hirm. he says he's looking at financials lagging the overall market, specifically with regard to the s&p 500. over the past week, month, three months, five months, you've seen that gap in underperformance of the financials go wider and wider. remember, financials, one of the most heavily weighted sectors in the s&p 500. just take a look at shares of jpmorgan. that chart there is showing that rollover. it's due for a fall. bank of america, citi, they all show the same type of thing. financials may be one reason the markets may be headed lower. >> but here's another catalyst,
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dom, and that's upbeat earnings. b of a points out that all sectors, including energy, are now on track to post positive year-over-year sales growth. that hasn't occurred in over 12 months. one sector to take note of, technology. it has the highest beat rate of any sector at 81%. that data according to thompson reuters. analysts say with the foreseeable come back in the spending space, expectations could be raised for q4. what have you got? >> here's something. everyone is talking about how bullish they are on technology, how bullish they are on some other sectors and markets are at record highs, but check this out. when things get a little too bullish, that's when you have to start to worry. a little complacency. everyone is worried the markets will go high. the bullish sentiment survey, up to 5%. paul hickey says the last time it hit this level, the s&p fell by 5 %.
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that was just in may of 2013. so, overall, you've got a lot of warning signs. and i think that's the reason why this debate rages on. you don't have an axe to grind either way but interesting points, guys. >> sure. >> they really are. even though you're looking at valuations, higher than where they were, we're still not at the valuations we were back in the '90s. >> that's a fair point. valuations have always been what bulls have been hanging their hat on. they say the multiples aren't that bad. they're trading relative value. but at some point you have to see a little pullback. >> with a low rate environment, the investor has nowhere else to get yield but the equity market at this point. >> yep. absolutely. >> i'm going to stay out of this. i'll let you people duke this out. very civilized, though. nicely done. >> we're ten minutes away from the closing bell on wall street. market once again in record territory. dow industrials up by 16 points. >> i'll ask the questions, will we or won't we close at new
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records for the dow and s&p? stick around. we're on record watch high right now, as a matter of fact. amazon teaming up with the post office to deliver packages on sunday. yes, sunday. not snow, rain, sleet or sundays will stop the post office. president of private equity says this could be a game-changer for the retail sector. he'll explain why. mine was earned orbiting the moon in 1971. afghanistan in 2009. on the u.s.s. saratoga in 1982. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation because it offers a superior level of protection and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa.
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welcome back. we've got nine minutes left in the trading session here. pretty quiet day because it's veterans day. the bond market's closed. not a lot of volatility. the dow is up 11 points. any positive close is an all-time high. the s&p is this close to an all-time high. joining us to give us their thoughts on the market, jeremy hill from tf market advisers is with me here at the new york stock exchange and jeff cox of is with maria at the schwab impact conference in washington. jeremy, we sort of continue to move higher. jobs numbers helped, the interest rate cuts helped.
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anything that's a headwind right now you see for this market? >> well, i think what's interesting right now, is i think we're at what engineers call an angle of repose, which is where an object or a rock starts falling down a hill. what i mean by is that is i think we're transitioning, at least in the equity markets, away from this beta market, more into a fundamental market analysis, and also i think with the credit markets we'll see the same thing. i think managers got burned a little bit the first time we talked about taper and they're scared of duration risks and they're going to transition into more of a traditional, normalized credit risk. >> you know, i guess you said earlier, jeff, one of the biggest concerns right now is market sentiment, but, you know, a technician will say to you, the reason they think the market keeps going higher is because nobody believes it. >> i think that's a great point. i think almost in the market like this, have you to be c contrary to contrarians.
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the market would till it's ready for a pullback as we've gotten so bullish but when you look at how many money has been committed, we haven't gone crazy as far as the fund flows go. i almost think this expectation of a pullback so many people are talking about might prevent the pullback from happening and we could take another leg up from here. bill, i don't want to scare you too much with being bullish here, but i really do think this sentiment thing, they're making a little too much of that now. >> who are you and what have you done with jeff cox? where did he go? >> i'll tell you what, i've been talking to a lot of folks here. the sentiment is so bullish, but so much of that is talking about, well, we could get a pullback or get a pullback here. i think, you know, this market right now -- the fed is so committed to kreegt inflation that they haven't created yet, so they're going to keep their foot on the pedal. i think the market's gotten that message. you're just going to see di-- en
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if we get that 5% pullback dominic chu talked about, it's just a buying opportunity. >> we have been identifying the change of tone in this market, where momentum players have been sold off and the higher cap, the safer blue chips, if you will -- i mean, there's no safety in this market, but those are the stocks that are getting all the attention right now, right? >> that's right. and i think momentum had its time and we are up 24.5% year to date. it's hard to argue the momentum stocks have had a difficult run over the last 12 months. i think over the next probably 2014 we'll see a little higher volatility. more of a stock-picker's market. and i think you have to choose your battles going forward. i think one thing we have to be cognizant of is looking at how the banks will perform going forward because they may lead the way. >> yep. and interest rates will play a big role in that as well. thank you, both. >> thanks. >> whoever you are over there in washington as well. we'll take a break. coming back with the closing countdown. the s&p looks like it's going to
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pull back a little from the close at an all-time high but the dow looks like it's going to happen. meanwhile, more earnings out. news corp.'s earnings out. we'll have instant analysis. and charles schwab ceo walt bettinger with me. juror watching the "closing bell" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. (vo) our new planes don't fly any faster. but it sure feels that way. because with power ports... and wi-fi... and in-seat entertainment, for everyone on board, now when you fly, time flies too. (flight attendant) sir, we're about to land. (vo) we're adding a brand new plane, with all this, every week. it's just one way we're building the new american.
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two two minutes left. how quiet was it today? look at the dow chart. we had a bit of a rally on the open this morning and then just sideways. but, again, we point out, any positive close for the dow is a new all-time high. we're about half a point away from an all-time high in the s&p. we'll wait and see what happens in the last two minutes here. we have earnings coming out after the bell tonight. news corp., remember they split them up. one side became 21 st century fox, one is news corp. it is down a percent today but they're expecting earnings of 5 cents of profit on $2.2 billion in revenue. as we head toward the close here, this market -- it loved the jobs number on friday and we just keep going here. i ask, where are the headwind? >> we're watching. if you saw bob pisani this
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morning, the equity funds, you still have a lot of money coming into the equity funds. that's getting us a little word because it's giving us a little bubble effect. >> that's the topekaic at schwab conference, the retail investor is coming back. >> it is getting a little bubbly. with janet yellen speaking, it looks like the $85 billion is going to keep coming into the market at least until spring. >> one guest told us we could see 25% great by 20 -- >> it's certainly possible. it's not possible. the feds can't keep this going forever. this is all fed fund rally. once that ends, we'll see what the market stands on. earning season coming to an end, about top -- bottom line we always beat, that's easy. top line, lowest percentage in year, 52% beat top line as opposed to normal 59%. >> thanks. good to see you. >> thanks, bill. >> as per tradition, as it
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should be on veterans day, veterans are ringing the closing bell here at the new york stock exchange as well as at nasdaq market site. we do honor those who have served their country and we thank you for that service as well. that is the first hour of the "closing bell." stay tuned. we've got more from the schwab impact conference in washington, d.c., with maria bartiromo. i'll see you tomorrow. it is 4:00 on wall street and in washington. hi, everybody, i'm maria bartiromo today coming to you from the schwab impact conference in d.c. we are going to talk to a whole host of portfolio managers and the day we see the major averages once again hit record territory. market closes higher, even if by a fraction. dow jones at a


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