tv Fast Money CNBC November 11, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
>> with. >> we salute our veterans today. the dow jones industrial average hit an all time high, a gin of 21 points. the nasdaq up. the s&p 500 just a half a point away from an all time high as well at 1771. thanks so much for joining me. i will see you tomorrow same place same time in d.c. stay with cnbc. "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq in new york city's time square, this is fast money, america's post market show. here is tonight's line up. left for dead retail. is it time to take a fly? we're looking for signs of life in the most out of vogue stocks. forget the supply worries and fiery headlines, now george clooney is taking aim saying the car is not practical.
$130 billion worth of advice. the head of the pension fund joins us on how he got out before latin america's biggest bankruptcy. we have got get straight to our top story tonight and that is overstretched. we have talked a lot about bubbles and now it's starting to hit the mainstream. stocks regain broad appeal. here below the fold. funds trim their hedge. now that all of the bubble concerns are hitting the mainstream, should we be more concerned that maybe now the time has come for the bubble to top? tim? i think the valuation run. we are not terribly bubblishes. but when you look at where we
have gone and where we come from, you need to be concerned. it tells you one that they will be losing their stock. >> i think we have to -- i have to agree with tim. i also think we have to put it in context. it's not as though mom and pop were investing at normal levels for years and all of the sudden got crazy euphoric. and had removed something like 300 billion net out of stock funds. i was much more comfortable being bullish when people hated stocks.
people were positive on stocks throughout the entire 90s. just because we're seeing what you pointed out it doesn't mean that mom and pop love stocks, blow everything out. it's just something to be aware of. >> you look at the performance and all of them across the board hit new highs. >> it makes sense. it seems to be finally catching up and that could sort of be the last straw and the last inning of this round. i don't think that necessarily is the case. i think there is still some great secular stories. but mastercard and visa we have talked about forever. valuations don't seem to be stretched. in terms of where do i think there might be a bubble, i don't think that valuation is a bubble. but people have been buying bioteches for the last year and a half, two years. the stocks have been on fire. a lot of these people have never seen a biotech blow up because we really haven't had one. that concerns me a little bit
specifically. >> karen, parts of the market that you ear w're worried about. i don't know that this time is any different. we go into a position we try to stick to those. >> you guys both think that consumer staples might be in trouble. and they are, i mean, they are on the upper end of the spectrum. >> to me, it's companies that can't reinvent the business. consumer staples are not historically sexy businesses. i like it. i like pepsi. those are places where i think you're in pretty good shape.
you're definitely exceeding the multiple expansion. this is double that expansion. so you're in a place dps, that's a sell. places that i like, i like being in the global places where they actually have growth in a new consumer segment. >> if i'm at home thinking there's going to be a bubble that will eventually pop, i would think that i would want to be in consumer staples as a safety play. >> the ultimate irony is that all of these etfs come out to exploit the low volatility anomaly. you get things like utilities and consumer staples. the problem is they are piling into that trade precisely when these stocks have almost never been more expensive there is
room for. >> when they miss they miss hard. look at some of these bellwethers. p & g got its butt kicked. >> speaking of being wary, retail earnings kick off on wednesday and our next guest says that fall could be a rough season for the retailers. great to have you with us. this is one of the stocks that seems to be turning around. the stock has seen a nice pop. all clear for jcp? >> i don't think it's the all clear but i do think that the stock will continue to perform through year end.
>> how can we be looking at comps when this has been about balance sheet and survival? forget comps. it might be a very exciting play because it's a speculative call. >> after the equity raise, i think that gave them enough liquidity through year end and most of next year. i think they are out of the woods. in this environment it's pretty impressive if they can. >> what about gross margin? it's not just sales. they can promote their way into sales without -- that gross margin is terrible. >> and i think they are. i think they're going to continue to promote their way into sales. they are telling a story that
it's okay. we are just driving for sales. the key thing they were doing is get people back in the door and then they would try to re-establish some sort of gross margin that makes sense. i think you're right. that's the next needle that needs to move. >> kohl's is up 34% year to date. one of your counter parts upgraded the stock saying you know what? now they are focusing on national brands and that bodes well for kohl's. are you bullish? where are they getting the market share from? >> i don't think they are gaining market share. i am actually a little bit cautious. they have been pretty clear that their guidance is conservative. but i think that the national brand strategy seems to be the right strategy.
>> abercrombie & fitch has been a disaster. any saving grace for it? >> i think what they outlined at their analyst meeting was pretty abysmal. they are struggling to figure out what the dna of their customer is and they are moving in the opposite direction of fast fashion. they say let's slow our fashion down. it doesn't make a lot of sense. >> you should ask her about chess king. >> i bet she knows about chess king. >> i bet she does. >> it sounds like you are pretty cautious in a lot of the retailers. the fashion trends have fot been strong because the colors are muted and mall traffic is weak. >> i think you want to go in the direction of global luxury and accessories. ralph lauren, coach, anything that has some sort of global
story and really a luxury angle is a better place to be. i don't expect any of these companies to do terribly well through the back half. they are buying other things. >> thanks for coming by. appreciate it. you like that global luxury angle? >> i do. i sort of agree with it. coach is bruised and beaten up. it is a real name. >> i actually hate coach and because i don't see it as a luxury brand when everybody has got one and their growth is coming from a place like china. all of their key creative parts, they are making major transition, i don't think they can do that overnight. >> the problem with stocks like abercrombie, they look cheap on the surface but the consumer is not interested in what they have to sell. the teens don't want to wear
logos. they would rather walk into h & m and buy something for $14 that abercrombie would sell for $49. >> man on the streets. josh brown. >> gee lew joins us now to break down the numbers. julia? >> that's right. revenue is down 3%. adjusted earnings fell to half of where they were last year, three cents per share. the main message seems to be that revenue faces challenges but they are getting their costs under control. he is very confident that the new news which recently spun off from the rest of fox's entertainments assets has
advantages. he did acknowledge head winds but the bot to tot line is this company is challenged. circulation revenue down 6%. not small stuff. back over to you. >> thank you very much. guy, what's the trade? >> stay away from it. there will be people dieing to buy it on the dip. it comes on the heels of dpiz knee. that was one of the first glitchy quarters. news corps probably trades down in the lower 16. >> some good news and bad news. the guy whose model s caught on fire last week says he would not hesitate to buy another one but george clooney disses his tesla.
i was one of the first cats with a tesla and i said to them, look guys, why am i always stuck on the side of the [ bleep ] road? >> do i need to fill that in for you? >> i would point out that this is not a model s. he is probably in the genuine and clearly things have advanced since then. so there is no time frame. >> it was an early edition roadster. he auctioned it off in 2012 and tesla has stepped selling this roadster. >> if clooney, call him daddy oh. there will be major competition for tesla. places where there will be other
brands out there. >> it looks like it's consolidating. >> i still think you have got to let it sit for a couple of days. the fact that george clooney says i was one of the first cats. >> you say cats all the time. all the time. >> lair lair pants on fire. >> that's like saying a model t is a later version of a ford. >> tech company rack space announcing that it fell 30%. we are seeing shares in the afterhour session trade a little higher here, up 2%. our next guest manages a $120 billion fund. then google is out more than
40%. morgan stanley just pooted the stock. is it time to take profits now? that's next on fast. it's as simple as this. at bny mellon, our business is investments. managing them, moving them, making them work. we oversee 20% of the world's financial assets. and that gives us scale and insight no one else has.
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welcome back. >> welcome back. with more than 120 billion dollars under management, our neck guest knows a little something about navigating the investment landscape. his fund has returned on average 10.1% on average since 1990. now, he is out with a new book on pension reform. jim leech, great to see you. >> good afternoon. >> we were talking just before about bubbles and how it's popping up all over the wall street journal. are you concerned at all about where we're at? >> we have a much longer term horizon. most asset classes are pretty richly valued these kay days.
one has to be very cautious and look for the. >> do you neetd to be able to meet. >> basically we use valuation rate in our liabilities of real 2.75%. to compare that to rates that u.s. pension plans use is more like eight. >> we hear a lot about assumptions of fallen returns in terms of the way large pension plan plans tend to allocate their assets. obviously that has not been borne out in recent years. >> we run our own hedge funds
internally. they have returned around the 10% level. but you have got remember we are managing assets and liabilities. >> so you mentioned the markets -- it's hard to find value at this point? at what point in the cycle does it get to levels where you say being in the u.s. equity market, it's just too rich? we are looking for those particular areas where there is value to be gained. >> what areas do you find value in? >> you have got to go within each asset class. we have been, the government has
been flooding these. it's driving anything that is interest rate sensitive through the roof. >> where you can go in and be effective and find good values. >> some of the emerging markets where we have increased our exposure from around 15% to 20%. >> you're doing that now at a time? that has been the whole thing with the rub. down 12.5%. >> we're not buying the markets generally. we are looking for the companies that we think will do well. >> speaking of companies, i want to talk to you about ogx. you had actually exited when? >> basically, first of all we made a large investment with ogx at its very beginning and we exited about 2.5, three years ago.
i'm curious what your take is on what happened. did something unravel? did he fall on bad luck? >> it appears to be a change in strategy. turn it over to people who are operators and at some point he decided he would become a operator. >> is that when you exited? >> yes. >> jim, great to speak with you. thanks for coming by. jim leech. time now for pops and drops. big movers of the day. >> jeffrey is actually increasing the price target to $100 a share. >> got a pop up for dang dang. >> a lot of this is on these guys report. their numbers are better despite
the fact that the company has been trying to temper the enthusiasm. >> great quarter at the end of october. >> i have got to tell you it's up 20 points. it has just hit lewd chris speed. >> and minivan racing. they are now tearing it up at the speed way. these rides top out around 73 miles an hour but it is tho trip to the beach. >> that would be perfect for you. you really can't drive that well either. get yourself a little minivan.
>> in new york city? i have drifen in pittsburgh. >> that was a driverless car, melissa, really? wasn't it? it was. >> google. google taking it today. after morgan stanley removed it. but we have got a bull and a bear. and it's day three of trading for twitter and the stock had early losses. where does it go next? we have got the twitter trade and much more ahead on fast. (vo) you are a business pro.
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trouble. removing google from its best ideas list. google is up more than 43%. is there more room to run or is the search engine running out of steam? >> i read the report and i noticed that he kept google at underweight. he was basically saying most of the gain has been pe expansion. here is what i would tell you. $169 a share is just skash. if you back that out it is actually selling at a market multiple. really stha have done nothing to warrant anyone selling the stock. i would buy it. provided that it holds that gap. i think you have got a big one
on your hand. it sounds like gentlemen is a euphemism for something else. >> they moeked last quarter. plus the stock was trading at about a six month low. there were zero expectations. that's why you saw the rally that they had. and look at the head count gain. thigh guys do -- >> they are growing. >> they are cavalier in the way they spend money. they had better hope that they continue on the. >> and this stuff is going out there. nobody is talking about the who nsa. they have headline risk as well. you have got to be careful going
into the quarter of january. >> karen? >> i have got to agree with josh. i mean, where it ghoez the short term? i don't know. i like the name. >> you would look at facebook and linked in. >> would you look at facebook? >> i would stay with google this is the most important media company in the world. google all the way. >> so lou is on the december snk. >> yeah. >> and in the market. >> it's not over. tweet us at cnbc fast money. >> your votes are important to us. >> particularly to josh. he doesn't like to lose. he cries when he loses, actually. moving on. carl icahn and transocean reaching a deal. what does icahn's involvement mean for the stock?
the u.s. bond morkt closed today but it will still be a week. tesla finded before the u.s. banking committee. and everything you need to know about bonds for the week. stay tuned. announcer: where can an investor be a name and not a number? scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office.
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>> welcome back to fast none. shares are getting raped over in the aftermarket. sales that were roughly in line. profit margins also fell quarter over quarter and year-over-year. they have got big players to compete against like amazon and of course microsoft. >> this is is a commodity business. >> and the quarter was not horrible. you have got to smoke it for the stocks to go higher. they wouldn't do it. >> today markets twitters third day of trading. a midday reversal after trading
lier in the morning. i actually think i will be rewarded by being patient. expectations are not quite the same. i would love the opportunity to see no. >> did you get it on the deal or after the deal? >> we are watching a lot of twitter trades. it's down what? 5%. >> i thought facebook would hold this 48, 48.5 level. it clearly has not traded well. i'm still in the camp that it works. that's a pretty dramatic sell off. i will give it a couple more days. >> moving on here, billionaire
carl icahn has reached a deal, ending a month long campaign. now karen has got the fine print here. what did you make of this deal? >> it was operational cuts not tax. he is so powerful now that there is really not a lot that you can do. you can have a good experience. so maybe that would be the same here. there was some pleat items as well as operational items that carl was pushing for. we don't know exactly which assets will be put into an mlp structure but they did say they would do it. i think he is absolutely should declare victory here.
two seats out of 11 is doable. >> was he right? how do you feel about that? >> you know, i don't think it's an ether or. this is is a big company. i think they can run more efficiently and still be able to buy new builds. >> if i can can declare victory, do you pair your stakes? >> i'm not in the stock now but i was in it six months ago. i like the pop. i think they have tremendous offshore drilling business that will continue to be profitable. >> my favorite is north atlantic offshore drilling. >> janet set to testify as part of confirmation but the bond
market is closed today. joining us now is dennis gartman. >> great to be had. >> now she has been ben bernanke's right hand woman for quite some time now. this will be the first glimpse that we have into how she assesses policy. >> i think the ris sk that bonds look like we are probably answering a bear market and i think you have to understand that fact. i can remember back in the day that i was down on the floor. if you were late to the bull market by two years you were still quite early. i think that we have seen a massive top taking here. i think you have to be telling the bond market. i think we have a long term change in the sentiment of the
bond market and i think you need to be a seller of it. look at the chart and how it's shaping up. look at what who is becoming more dovish. look at what the fed wants to have, which i think is a more positively sloped yield curve. they're not going to move the short end but the long end will be a detrimental concern. >> if you're looking to short the ten year, where are you looking for rates to go? >> i think we will be surprised where rates will be four and five and sick years from now.
within the nkt two years i am writing it down on my little notebook. >> i am sort of in the other i can see ten years going back down to 2%. can you see that happening within the theme that you are talking about now? >> you need to get out of new york. you need to get out of nashville. you need to go to memphis or ohio. you need to go to souix city,
iowa. automobiles are being sold. airplanes are being crowded. hotel rooms are being used and i think friday's number in the employment figures were indicative of what's going on in the economy. i think actually outside of new york, things are doing quite well, thank you very much. >> dennis, good to see you. enjoy the big easy. >> i always like the big easy. it's good to be here. >> dennis gartman. the crude crush continues. some traders are betting that energy stocks will take a tumble. >> you are absolutely right. on these low volume days, if somebody has a bearish ax to grind it really sticks out and we saw that in a number of energy names today. high put call ratio today. probably the most interesting one, this is the oil exploration and development etf had very
high put call ratio most of the day. and somebody was rolling bearish positions out from november to december. and finally sun corps energy had very high put call volume. at the end of the day, 15 puts traded for every call. >> what did you notice in the energy space? >> exxon mobile. a couple times we said it's got to play catch up. i think it still works here. >> thanks for options actions. pot belly's first pubically traded company report comes out tomorrow. could the sandwich chain report turn things around? that's ahead on fast. [ male announcer ] once, there was a man who found a magic seashell. it told him what was happening on the trading floor in real time. ♪ the shell brought him great fame. ♪
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move to a single payer system. it's designed to move down the road. >> there were 2.5 million people that went to war for us. they are now transitioning back to the civilian world it's incumbent upon us to be able to assist them. >> it seems that they would wait for the entire transition to be beyond us. >> carl telling me that he has spoke within tim cook and they continue to study the buy back situation saying we both continue to believe the company is undervalued. >> when we surveyed, two-thirds of them predicted a market
correction. in the next nine months. people know we're in a bit of a bubble environment. they're not sure how it will end. we're in uncharted territory. >> all right. but i do want to talk about apple. it was interesting. usually when we get a tweet or comment regarding apple, the stock moves. the stock didn't move this time. people that were very excited, if that's all you have, that is not enough. i do not trade this stock. in fact you trade this thing when it gets back down to 440. tell me what's going to drive this stock forward. >> looks reich like he has got heartburn. >> that's his most recent picture. i think it's a good picture. >> happy 238th birthday for the
united states marine corps. and veterans day? >> is there a trade here? are you talking about apple? >> i'm talking about veteran's day. it's no man's land. >> that's true. happy veteran's day. let's move on. let's look ahead to what's happening tomorrow, too. pot belly reporting earnings. >> yes, as chief pot belly correspondent for cnbc -- >> you said it yourself. we get a full bdy shot. >> if you're a long term investor it's $110 million cap. they could grow for years and years. this might be a fantastic opportunity. but short term i don't like the set up heading into the earnings. it's still up almost double.
noodles & company disappointed, panera disappointed. >> the lay off on the pot belly. lay off the pot belly for now. and lay off me, guys. >> that is a psa. >> sometimes i eat rather than deal with my problems. >> sorry. >> from hoegys to home builders. the company underperforming the markets so far this year. >> josh might want to mix a salad in. >> it's a series of lower highs, not good. they had better say something good tomorrow. >> wait. no, no, no. on the commercial breaks i like to read. you have got to see this
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internationally, so hasn't that been priced in? it should be at the top of the list yourselves. >> since that call, the stock was up 16%. tim? >> the point for me was on a risk reward basis and we had earnings the next week, do you want to own the stock? it's something like 18%. this stock went up to 395 and torched people down to 325. i don't know that the risk reward was in the favor. >> what is that? you don't lose money taking a profit? >> nobody ever went broke taking a profit. >> that's dangerous. >> you tweet it, we trade it. looks like it's heading up from here. >> let's not get carried up from here.
rsh through 80 you get out. at these levels you might be able to add to the long position. >> what do you think of go go? >> this has all the makings of a cult stock. came public in june. 17% of the floed is short and there are only 17 million shares. this thing can have a lot of interesting things as well. >> if you look at where these guys are trading. what's going on in the travel space is these guys are deserving it. relative to where it has been in the last nine months.
>> i would like to hear about natural gas stocks. >> yes, those are natural gas stocks. if we have tape from two years ago, i think i was bullish and wrong. . >> filling stations. if this natural gas truck thing ever takes off, which i think it will, that will be an intere interesting thing as well. stay tuned. peace of mind is important when you're running a successful business.
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is caused by people looking fore traffic parking.y that's remarkable that so much energy is, is wasted. streetline has looked at the problem of parking, which has not been looked at for the last 30, 40 years, we wanted to rethink that whole industry, so we go and put out these sensors in each parking spot and then there's a mesh network that takes this information sends it over the internet so you can go find exactly where those open parking spots are. the collaboration with citi was important for providing us the necessary financing; allow this small start-up to go provide a service to municipalities. citi has been an incredible source of advice, how to engage with municipalities, how to structure deals, and as we think about internationally, citi is there every step of the way. so the end result is you reduce congestion, you reduce pollution and you provide a service to merchants, and that certainly is huge. i'm bethand i'm michelle. and we own the paper cottage.
it's a stationery and gifts store. anything we purchase for the paper cottage goes on our ink card. so you can manage your business expenses and access them online instantly with the game changing app from ink. we didn't get into business to spend time managing receipts, that's why we have ink. we like being in business because we like being creative, we like interacting with people. so you have time to focus on the things you love. ink from chase. so you can. >> >> who won the street fight on google? the gentleman. >> thank you. you mig want to take a look at this magazine going around on your street corner right now. >> oh my god. i can't believe this. >> final trade? tim. >> inflated multiples and the consumer sector. sell doctor pepper snaple. >> do what the pros do. fade guy, get more google. i think it's going to work.
>> karen? >> i love the name macy's. they report on wednesday but i'm selling upside calls. >> guy? >> way to be a good loser. >> kohl's. >> i'm melissa lee. see you tomorrow again at 5:00 for more fast. "mad meantime don't go anywhere. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all invest tors. there's always work. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramer america. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and coach you. call me 1800743cnbc. top callers are finally calling out in full force. last week we had a