tv Squawk Box CNBC December 3, 2013 6:00am-9:01am EST
good morning, everybody. ike becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew ross sorkin is off today. in our headlines, yesterday's cyber monday online sales are expected to have hit $2 billion. that would be up 20% from last year. and it would be the best level since the firm began tracking information like this. ibm digital analytics benchmark reports online sales were up by 18.8% as of 9:00 p.m. last night. we're going to talk to one of the men behind the numbers in the next hour. it is a steadily growing number and something that has to be eating away at some of the real bricks and mortar stores, too. the fed has approved new capital plans by jpmorgan and goldman
sachs. in start-up news, apple has acquired topsy. the price was not disclosed, but the journal pegs that number at more than $200 million. joe, this is particularly interesting because apple hasn't gotten into the social media stuff at this point. >> i have seen stuff lately about they analyze -- like we saw the walking dead the other day. >> we were just talking about this. >> in addition to reporting the nielsons, like half of the article i didn't really understand everything it was saying, but it talked about twitter trending things. it was the biggest -- >> yeah, hot and popular things people are discussing while they're watching. >> so what is that, you look under the number -- >> yeah. on the left-hand side, when you log on, you can see topics trending and you can pick topics trending worldwide in the united states, in new york city,
anywhere you want to look, you can see topics trending within that population. and the thing that -- it doesn't correlate necessarily to nielson ratings, but what it does tell you is which of your audience is really active. and the other thing that's great about it is that it gets people to watch in realtime. because if you want to be part of the conversation, you need to be watching it, not like i did last night, but on sunday night. >> watching it last night, i'm sure they're happy whenever they do the dvr totals now. it's like with the plaque lisbl. >> right. with nbc. >> and people watch that afterwards. is there a way you can say to advertisers yet, look at this, this is worth x amount? >> i think so. that's what they're building towards. there is something that shows inherent value. it does show a very active and engaged audience. and a lot of the shows, a show like "the voice" is going to
pick up a lot of this. "dancing with the stars" picks up a lot of this. >> wow, it's not even -- they've talked a little bit about year over year 18 to 49, that kind of stuff. but then it went right to twitter. and i was like, this is a new world. >> start tweeting. >> yeah. then the other thing, mobile cyber sales, is that like -- so it's not just -- >> if you're on a tablet or your iphone or -- >> so it includes tablets? >> it includes tablets, too. >> so people shopping on their smoeb or tablet? >> right. >> and that's grown to 10% now? >> e-commerce in general accounts for 10% of all online sales. i think mobile made up something like 24% or 25% of the e-commerce was mobile through your tablets or smartphones.
>> all these guys around here are tech savvy. are they laughing at me or with me? >> do you really not use this? >> i bought one thing online, but i had help. and that was after -- that was after -- i told you that story where i went to best buy and bought it there and then it was cheaper on the weekend. and they said, no, you can't get the cheaper price. and i go but i can take it back and get my money back and buy it on amazon? and they said yeah. i go, all right, if you want me to do that. just work with me. >> it's really easy and you would love it because i get the feeling you're probably not somebody who likes crowds. >> i don't like crowds. >> come home. >> can you buy underwear? >> yes, i have. >> sorkin probably has. how long does it take? 6:04. >> we got that. >> where is my little guy? he's having fun. >> he is. >> in corporate news, this is a much more comfortable yumm
brands, november sales at its kfc restaurant in china failed to grow, despite a successful half price chicken promotion. china accounts for more than half of yum's operating profit. i should say that again. china accounts for more than half of the company's operating profits. >> that's unbelievable. >> the company does see a 2014 earnings rebound. krispy kreme doughnuts posted quarterly -- there's no mobile, no cyber, just deep fried, right? probably not. after the close yesterday, earnings beat by a penny. but you can see on the right-hand side of that chart, shares fell after 2015 shares came in below estimates. and wells fargo says a government request to add one of its executives as a defendant in a fraud case may be in retaliation for the bank's
decision to cut off settlement talks. the bank is questioning why the justice department waited a year before deciding to pursue claims against the executive, kurt lefrano. he joins a short list of individuals to be sued by the government in acts that contributed to the financial department. the justice do i know department doing something punitive? i don't think so. not in this administration. >> or any administration. >> no, no. i'm talking about this one in particular. let's talk about some other washington news. there could be some signs of progress in debt talks. politico reports house and senate negotiators are pushing to finalize a small scale deal to set spending levels and replace sequester cuts for the next two years. congressman paul ryan and senator patti murray are said to be considering a plan that would
give release . new revenue in fee increases is likely. that's where they've been talking back and forth, if you want to bring more money in, can you do it through fees by calling it other things other than taxes? that's something some republicans have said they can deal with. >> we'll see. president obama wants to sell the american people on the relaunch of his troubled health care program today. he'll be starting speaking at 2:30 eastern time today. let's check on the markets in anticipation of this. it wasn't too auspicious of a start yesterday. and again this morning, not so great, either. a lot of -- in the last two weeks, we have heard the word bubble like 100 times. so i don't know whether that initially just gets people to sell it off. it doesn't mean we're going down 5% or 10%, but at least it's
starting with a little bit of trepidation. we have eight street weeks of gains, it probably wouldn't be surprising to not go nine. but down about 48 points is what we're looking at on the dow jones. the s&p is up 20% for the year. take a look at oil as we head into the all-important christmas season for retailers. people have a little more in their pockets as gasoline prices come down. the ten-year, which we always watch, given that some day somehow somewhere janet yellen is going to -- >> look at that. it's almost 2.8%. >> 2.8%. the dollar should be going up against these currencies, but it's really -- it's not. you would think as interest rates go up, that it would. but that's not looking good for -- davos is in europe, isn't it? >> yes. >> i can't remember. >> oh, my gosh. we're going to be really just
taking that place by storm, aren't we? yeah. >> i'm going to be the ugly american over there. god all mighty. >> you're kidding. you? >> yeah. hard as it might be to believe, i may want look quite as -- as your average person. >> it is the swiss franc still. >> do i need to wear the suspenders and -- >> that would be perfect. you are chevy chase. >> i don't know if i could fit into ross's clothes, but -- >> leaderhosen? >> ricola. you don't have that advertisement over there. ross westgate is standing by in london. it's not really a fantasy that i have of you dressed like that, but i'm seeing a picture of you dressed in those clothes, ross. do you know what i'm talking about? what are those? >> lederhosen. becky has got it.
>> can you borrow them? >> you're worrying me a little bit, joe. >> don't worry. don't worry. it's all clean, good clean fun. not that there's anything wrong with it, anyway. anyway, why is it so red behind you? >> it's a better question than the other one you've asked me. we've declined steadily during the session today. a little light sell off at the beginning. it's gotten heavy and we're now on the session low in europe. decliners outpacing advancers by more than nine to one on the dow jones stoxx 600. there are no segments in positive territory. no real reason for this. we had quite good economic data around the globe yesterday. pmi in china, the uk, better data on the uk construction pmi. a little firmer. there is potentially a sense -- and we got stronger u.s. data yesterday. it's the sort of argument that we hate. stronger bit of data on the ism and manufacturing. does the fed taper sooner? and that seems to have sold off
commodities for some bizarre reason, although the economic activity is improving. and it's pelted out. so the losses here, down nearly a percent for the ftse. the xet ra dax down 1%. cac 40 down 1.72%. the weak he segment is basic resources. we've seen copper down today. but this idea that a bit of better data suggests we'll get more tapering. that's what some people are suggesting this morning, as well. we have got a little bit of tension over the east china seas at the moment, as well. there are issues about trying to impose a no fly zone around that
area, as well. otherwise, not feeling particularly great. a lot of caution this week, as well. meetings from the bank of england and the ecb. maybe december is not starting out quite the way we thought it would. back to you. >> okay, ross, so it's a no, then, you're not going to lend them to me. you have some, but -- >> no, i don't have any. i could probably get my hands on a kilt if you want to do that. >> all right. i don't know a lot about that, either. are there -- typically is there -- are there undergarments associated with that? i'm just wondering. do you know? >> yeah, i think the question is anything worn under the kilt. >> that's my question. >> and the answer is no, it's all in good working order. >> that's what i thought. that's what i thought. that makes me -- that just scares me. it seems like it would restrict -- >> it scares the rest of us. >> it would restrict the available -- >> it seems like it would be
cold. >> be cold. and you just have to -- suddenly, you know, you'd have to worry like gals have to worry sometimes. >> join our fun. >> you don't want to be exposing yourself to the entire planet. thank you, ross. december trading starts off on a negative note. should investors remain bullish heading into 2014? rich steinberg from global asset management and david joip joy, chief market strategist at ameriprise financial. are you in florida, rich? >> i am. >> are you -- you saw all the talk about, you know, 27% for the s&p. you see how december is starting. it's usually a good month. do you think maybe we've gotten too complacent here? will it be a good month? >> i think it's just time for a rest, joe.
investors going into the rest of this month and into next year, they can be opportunistic, but they have to be realistic and probably most importantly opportunistic. so if we do have some choppiness with some profit taking going on, it will give people an opportunity to rebalance their portfolios. if you started the year with a 60/40 mix, you're back to a 75/25 mix. so you may see rebalancing going on as people start to book some gains and start to look into next year. val y valuation will be the key going into next year. >> historically, valuation is not expensive at 2-8, is it? >> no. but whenever the conversation of multiple expansion comes in and i expect to get passed by that comfortable feeling, things typically don't end well. going into next year, we're
using a 16 multiple for the s&p. value looks cheaper in the large cap space than growth. if you apply a 15 multiple to the value portion of the s&p, you have about 11% upside and we're carrying a target for next year of 1930, which is a little higher than a couple weeks ago when we spoke. and that's a 16 multiple on $121 in earnings, it's going to depend on whether or not earnings come in. >> do you grate agree or disagree with most of that, david? >> i agree with most of it. i'm not quite as optimistic ownerings. i think earnings will be in the teens next year. if you apply the same multiple, you get somewhere around 18. i think several fwreents will have to improve it. capital spending has to
accelerate. and confidence has to improve. we've been talking a lot in the last few days about sales and cyber sales and all of that. but if you look at the aggregate, sales are down. and it speaks to the uneven nature of this recovery. there are pockets of wealth doing okay in this recovery, but by and large, the overall economy is struggling. >> and housing should be doing well, but like anything else, the 2-8 is relative, and if mortgage rates going from 4.2% to 5%, does that slow down the housing market? >> yeah. it does. rates back up 100 basis points. >> what would you put the housing rebound at right now? at a 6 or so on a scale of 1 to 10? an 8? >> i would say it's about a four. >> for housing? >> yes. >> do you think that's what worries the fed, too, why they haven't tapered to this point? >> i think that was the deciding
factor for why they didn't taper in disease. they saw the mortgage rates going up, housing, and they said, whoa, all this tightening has occurred without us. just as the concern for confidence. >> what you just said, for the rest of the economy, is the fed being so active, is that a positive for confidence? i would think if i knew that i could get zero interest rates or the next two or three years, i would feel confident. but then again, i can see it the other way where, wow, if we need this much help, the underlying dynamics aren't that strong. is if fed helping confidence or hurting confidence? >> i think with the consumer, the individual, it's probably helping. if you know rates are going to be -- >> well, back of the markets. >> but i think for business, it's hurting, quite frankly. i think both the fed's activism, as well as the lack of clarity on tax policy really hurting the bills sector. and that's the key component here. that hasn't kicked in at all in this recovery. >> rich, people say it's that, but it's also just -- if there
was a man that corporations would get active. they're pulling their cash and everything else. is it this they're not confident because of the fed or we're still trying to come back from that sharp break we had in 2008? >> i think one of the key sess what david is talking about. we need to see congress act on the tax code section 179, which is going to fall to $25,000 in capital spending for this year. it was at 500,000. small businesses need to be able to invest in their business, which has a trickle down theory. so we're hoping that in some of the year-end posturing in washington, that they right size that huge setback to 25,000, maybe back to even 125,000. it will get small businesses investing in hardware and other equipment, which will help create jobs and move us forward again. >> rule 179, all right, got it. if i get bumped from a plane,
it's rule 240. right? do you remember, becky? it's 24 it's rule 240? >> rule 240, yes. if you get bumped from a plane, you complain and -- >> all these numbers are getting together. >> section 179 is the tax rule. but, joe, i get the jennings of this going here, so we know we're going to have a good year going next year. >> you've got a beard, a decen-beard? >> yeah. you can't go with november to build a beard, you have to go with december to keep the market gods happy. >> you're late. >> i don't know, those guys on the "today" show, they're doing a good thing, but i like them better when they're clean shaven, right? when you're in the middle of growing it, it looks like you
got up late or something. >> i got up early. >> and we appreciate that. >> david, thank you. it's been a joy. still to come this morning, why the united autoworkers union is considering hiking membership dues for the first time since 1967. plus, a legal decision that could prompt more states to try to collect taxes on internet sales. it's coming at the great confusion and ir at a timetation of amazon. we'll talk about that. >> first, the seattle seahawks beat the new orleans saints on monday night football. the saints fell into a first place tie with carolina and the nfc south. >> right now, alex wilson joins us from the weather channel. >> hey, guys. good morning to you. we have to talk about snow into parts of the dakotas. billings, monday, rapid city, you're seeing the snow now. snow through montana, the
dakotas, into wyoming and casper. this will extend all the way over into the minneapolis area as we go through the day today and tomorrow. through thursday morning, this is where the most impressive snowfall totals will be. so a lot of snow. coming along with that, very cold air, as well. today's highs, 10 in minot. 16 in billings. but tomorrow, we're in the low single digits in those same places. but thursday, high temperatures will be around minus 4 in minot, 3 in billings. friday, minus 7 in minot. minus 8 in billings. when we compare these temperatures to average lows, they're lower. the average low for denver is around 18 degrees. today's high, well above that mark in the upper 40s. but look at these high temperatures. these are the warm temperatures for the next few days. midweek through the end of the week, weir looking at teens,
membership and rising costs. joe, when they talk about raising, it's the rates that they're raising, not the actual dollar terms. it would be something like two hours that you pay in, now they're talking about raising it to 2 1/2 hours per month. it's something that they admit it's just in the early stages of right now, but it's something their hand is being forced because not only do they have fewer members, a lot of the newer members aren't making as much as the old honor ones. and a huge part of the uab, something like 50% isn't part of the union. it's dwindling. >> i was in the union, just briefly. >> i was, too. "the wall street journal" was a union shop. >> the other one, not sag, and then sag i had a -- >> did you -- >> no. >> you have to be a full time
actor to be able to -- >> i think i made -- i did one thing to the glenn close show. every once in a while, i get a check for like $8. and it's like, wow, this is unbelievable. but it was like $2,500 to join. and i'm thinking, 8el bucks, $2,500, and nobody has really called. >> it was interesting. the uab does have $1 billion in assets. it's just that it's been a declining number over the last six years. and auto -- i think autoworkers, the trough was in 2009. since that time, auto sales have come back by about 50%, but union might be has risen about 8%. >> right. the real union power is in the -- we know where it is. it's in the public sector. private is about 7%, something. way down. anyway, the supreme court is staying out of a dispute over state sales taxes for purchases
on websites like amazon. and they've made no comment about why they're not got to take it. the court houhigh court turned decision. you feel strongly about this. >> i do. >> when they make this case, i didn't see why you don't want a burgeoning -- it's like a new -- >> it's not a new industry. this was a valid conversation back in 1999. it's 10% of retail sales at this point. that's the equivalent of saying wall smart shouldn't have to pay it. it's something that's rising 20% a year. i think the bricks and mortars, you saw that over the last weekend, over this black friday, over thanksgiving weekend, this is the first time that they've seen a decline in seven years. it's hurting brick and mortar retailers and not the big guys, not the walmart.com and macys.com. it's hurting small retailers. >> because bricks and mortars
have to pay taxes that are then wasted -- >> whatever. i'm saying you shouldn't be forcing somebody who is a small mom and pop, sitting on main street who has to pay -- if you buy something at their hardware store, you have to pay 8% on it. if you buy from amazon, you don't have to pay 8%. >> don't you want to buy it on amazon without paying taxes? >> i do buy it on amazon and i do pay taxes. in the state of new jersey, you have to say here is what i bought and i go and i print out everything i bought on amazon and i do pay sales tax on it. >> that's why i don't buy anything. >> it's complicated. but what i will say is has not said they are interested in ever collecting it. their problem is trying to figure it out. their point is they would hike a federal system set up that says you either pay one state sales tax or you buy one, you know,
federal fee that then is splitted pup i can understand that argument. >> and, again, obama care developers, are they available to develop this for us for the federal -- >> i don't know. they might be busy right now. >> maybe we can wait. if somebody like amazon could deal with figuring out 5,000 different tax jurisdictions, it would be a pain, but they could figure it out. >> they can deliver packages with a drone, they can figure this out. >> right. it's complicated stuff, but it's people who are the -- >> was that a pr stunt yesterday or was that -- >> they are becking it up. they are still saying they can do it. >> fred smith of -- >> he said that flying in general is much harder just logistical logistically. >> was he a fighter pilot? >> he is. but he talked about the worries
of terrorism, if it's not completely regulated in the right way. but he did take it seriously, sent me an article about how it is moving from military to some commercial uses. but didn't sound like it was nearly as imminent to him. i asked the u.p.s. guy and the guy couldn't answer because liesman was laughing so hard that i asked the u.p.s. guy. but it's a legitimate question. i wouldn't want to be a package delivery sfrts if amazon is going to do this and you're not even doing a feasibility study? >> fred smith has looked into it, is not thinking it's imminent. but i think fedex, as we network we must have asked them because they provided a statement to cnbc yesterday about their intentions. >> what did he is? i didn't see that, but he mentioned that they did early on. when we return on "squawk box," it was only last month that cypress nearly caused a major meltdown.
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debt has been upgraded, not downgraded. michelle caruso cabrera sat down with the finance minister to determine how they managed that. >> you remember the scene, it was absolute chaos, the banks were shut down for two weeks, they were begging for billions from their european partners. people wondered if once again we were going to see the european financial system come apart. here we are, s&p upgraded cyprus last week. it's extraordinary. it took nine months for cyprus to get upgraded. it took four years for greece to get upgraded. this is harris georgeioti. we spent a lot of time talking about what happened and why it's so different. he said cyprus took really hard decisions early on. they cut spending immediately and early and budget cuts came at a quicker pace. he didn't compare that to greece. i'm saying compared to greece because i that you tell saw
greece first hand. they're still fighting some reforms he don't want to do in greece. bottom line, he says he thinks the worst is behind cyprus. >> hopefully we have come a long way since the springtime. we have exited the danger zone, we are stabilizing the situation. we're taking control of the situation. the challenges, of course, remain. >> the challenges are they still have capital controls in place. you cannot take fodeposits out cyprus yet. they're hoping that comes early next year finding they can recapitalize the banks. remember these huge lines that we saw back then. i also had to ask him about bitcoin. because there is a university in cyprus that is now accepting bitcoin and offering a degree in bitcoin. cyprus remembers was a big financial capital of the world.
this is a part where the finance minister actually smiled about bitcoin. he finds it fascinating. take a listen. >>. >> it's very interesting and encouraging that the private university in cyprus has been bold enough to take this step. >> we spent a lot more time talking about it. he is just as interested in bitcoin that a lot of people in the world are that we talked so much about it, the fact that it's friction lists and costs were for transaction and he thinks it makes a lot of sense. but in cyprus, which has done a lot of financial innovation, shall we say, is a place where there would be a lot of inknow vagd vacation, as well. >> i guess that brings us back to cyprus. i forgot about the russians who were there and what's happening in the ukraine right now, too.
>> i haven't thought about cyprus in -- i've talked about cyprus point, actually, a lot, but i have not thought about -- >> no. i was going back through, remember it was the russians and they wanted to make sure they were getting their money back in the entire situation and now russia is involved particularly with what's happening in the ukraine and the eu. >> that struck me, as well, becky. and i asked him about that. i said look, i see similarities between ukraine and cyprus thp trying to make a decision between the east and the west. would do you embrace? my sources tell me that cyprus was punished very harshly because they had so much russian money and western europe felt they were too close to russia. you see the same situation. have you seen the video from last night from ukraine? it's unbelieve what's going on there. the fight about whether they should embrace russia or the eu treaty. he totally rejects the
comparison. he says they are european. they chose to join the euro. he sees no similarities. i think the rest of the world probably does. >> that's interesting. i was looking to some comments from putin. he said to me they don't look like a revolution. it just adds to all of the interests things they had to say recently. >> and it seems like the cold war is still going on, but it's not missiles, it's trade and finance. >> michelle caruso cabrera, thank you very much. i'm looking at images of number 16. cyprus point. >> oh, golf, yeah. you're gone. >> yeah. you lost me. coming up, a corruption perception index. the world's cleanest and dirtiest country cans based on how corrupt people think they are. then in the next hour, a virtual who's who in the world of media. our guests include the ceo of
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