tv Fast Money CNBC December 30, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
three to five years. >> guys you're brutal. >> thank you everyone for being here. tomorrow is the last trading session of the year. we will see what happens it's sure to be a record breaking 2013. melissa lee speaking about performing, you guys are talking about airlines? >> we have got an analyst with two picks and they're not underperformers he says that can make you money. >> stay tuned. over to you guys. "fast money" starts right now. here's tonight's line-up. walmart a dog of the dough this year but will it be an outperformer? plus the two socks that are your best bets heading into the new year. they posted the biggest gains in the first two weeks of the new year. and finally twitter tanks again, adding to friday's 13% drop. one of our traders says now might be the time to get in.
here are our traders tonight. let's get straight to our big story tonight. where are they headed next? you want to get the long term pick? this is fast money. it's fun to talk a year out. >> it's also a little harder than talking a year out. but for me, if you split the year up in half, i'm looking for a good first half, first three to six months and then the second half to me is troublesome. and a lot of it has to do with one, valuation. to me, money looks like it's going awfully higher this year, 2013, 2014 setting up very similar. not necessarily fip shul crisis wise. >> how much higher?
that's an outlier call. >> you also have tremendous demand for west tax all of those are declining. they have to drill more wells just to keep production up. those decline very, very fast. if you have that, then the whole illusion. >> the energy miracle is a short lived phenomenon. >> sure. >> some of the things brian is saying, i actually think in the first quarter is when you will see a major squeeze for companies that produce or mine metals. >> that means people like southern copper, people like bhp. i would stay with the more diversified players. you need to go for good balance sheets but people are short this sector. if you look at what's going on with the g3 growth, all the numbers coming out, fourth quarter coming in. i think the first quarter, but
again people are very short. it's about positioning people are short the sector. i think all this good news means that finally, really for financials. >> jim, how do you see the markets play out? >> not focusing necessarily on the sector. you have got to realize that december had a lot of professional money managers. they were doing anything to catch up. that's got the market higher than it ought to be. i think there is room for a five to seven percent correction there. i don't think the oil renaissance is over. not yet. i have a lot of data to back that up. i will just say that that's not over and the economy is getting over. so long term, you should be about ten% higher after the correction.
>> the market has gotten everything thrown at it. i am still a levels person. i still think you got to retest that level again, hopefully soon. sooner would be better if you're bullish. if it happens later i'm not sure how good that will be. i think that's probably shortable. i think ibm bouncing from 172, i think that's probably a name you got to look at. >> i want to get to our next guest because he is making a very bold call. let's bring in legendary chart watcher. ralph, good to see you. you're actually looking for something deeper? >> well, i think it's in the
cards. >> you said 10 to 15% to one of our guest producers? >> yeah. i officially said that. but i like to be a con trarn. because everybody is saying the same thing. and this market, i have to clarify. this market is not in the bubble. there is none of that. all the moving averages you want to calculate, the market is ahead of itself. i see no divergences. right now the market is doing well. yes we should have a correction. the sooner the better. >> i think everybody likes to be a con trarn. but what i will point out accurately is market was not in
a bubble in 2007 either in terms of the actual stock market. there were clearly other bubbles that existed. i would agree with you. the stock market is not in a bubble. there are other bubbles out there. >> yeah. but wait a second. we had an oil bubble in 2007. >> you were talking about you specifically said stocks. you want to say oil as well? but the stock market valuations were reasonable. >> okay. >> let me try it at a different angle. you're a technical guy. show me what you're seeing. are we way overbought? are you looking at call this for us. >> well, i disagree with you. >> i asked a question. >> but the primary bull market, the only thing that i look at that tells me that we're
extended is where the market is versus its 200 day moving average. i like to look at a longer term chart. i look at a monthly chart. right now the dough is 36% above its 200 month moving average. that was 56% above. so the secular bull market is not over. but when i compare that same stat and i look at the peak in 2007, guess what? we're almost there. so, yes, we are extended. no bubble. i think no divergences, no major tops. >> you said 10 to 15%. >> you call that bearish? >> going to have a lot of people jumping out of windows. >> well, i hope so.
we need a little bearishness out there. >> he means that figure. he doesn't want anybody jumping out of windows. he means we need a flush. >> wait a second. guys, guys, you're very short term oriented. a 17% correction from my perspective would be a gift from god. that would get all the old technology stocks like microsoft and texas instruments. they're not vulnerable. there's good rotation going on. look at the shipping industry. that's telling me that we're going to have global growth. look at shipping. they look phenomenal. on top of that you look at the material stocks like alcoa and u.s. steel, i think there's going to be a building boom in
2014. >> all right. thanks for your time. interesting call. all right. let's get at this. 10 to 15% over the next two to three months for most people out there is short term and is deep enough to be concerned about. >> i don't think it's going that well. here's why. think about how that trajectory would look. it would either be a water fall. >> it would be a policy. >> some big catalyst would be out there. they are probably not. i know that's a contraryian call. the other way it could happen is is a slow grind. people are generally positive. any slow grind is going to be bottomed out pretty quickly by buyers. >> all the leaders are going to roll over and technically that's going to make everybody very bearish. >> to tim's point, everybody wants 10 to 15% correction until they get it. then when it's there it looks like the world is coming to an
end and people run from it. i think that is exactly what tim is saying. as much as we like to say in theory it makes sense, when you get it it's exactly what you don't want. >> the stock falling 5% today adding to friday's double digit drop. is this just an opportunity to buy? bk, you're actually circling this chart. >> last week we talked about twitter and everybody was saying you got to get in, everybody is missing it. those times, that's the time to step away and say hold on. wait until everybody hates it. i saw all kinds of articles today. that's when bk wants to buy. >> on thursday when the drudge report had a banner on its site on twitter, that's when we said is that the top for this stock? at least immediately it looked like it was. >> your investment in it is a
lot of people are interested in. is it a momentum or valuation call? twitter at this point, one of the things that bothers me is this a company with 230 users, how many of them are uniques. all of the fraudulent users who will create problems. i like to be on twitter, and i would like to be a lot more. >> this is more of a trade. i don't think in 2014 you can take twitter and put it in your portfolio and forget about it. obviously very volatile stock. using 54 as your stock. that's where all the eyeballs are and that's all that matters to people. eventually it will stop mattering. >> brian, i think you're right but a touch early. if you look at any of the new companies, you can go back to a google. they tend to hit it out of the gates, come down and then fundamentals play in. >> we'll see. let's go check in with sema.
>> we will shart with marvel shells. raised the stake from 4.5 to 6.8%. shares higher afterhours. keep in mind it's a tech stand out. now another stock mover is hertz. they have docked a poison pill after seeing unusual trading activity. it is trying to reduce the likelihood that any person or group could gain control through open market accumulation. >> thank you. apple and google taking their rivalry to the streets. google apparently teaming up with audi. who will win the race? that's next. plus after a shakey year for walmart, will the stock rebound? we take on an analyst who says it doesn't have a chance. y kids are hard to impress... so i got the windows nokia tablet. it's, well, impressive.
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since 2003, averaging an 8% gain in that time. cf industries not far behind that, an average return of 7% between december and january. guy, micron, on that trade, regis philbin recently gave us a trade update. he sold -- >> according to him. >> according to him, wow. >> you are doubting. >> what did i say that is not accurate? i said according to regis. that's amazing. >> you had a tone. >> there was no tone. >> there was a tone in your voice as if you were doubting the poor guy. >> he's asleep now. he's not watching anyway. >> the stock has had a nice pull back. i think it's in tact. i think a lot of analysts came out and think maybe the space has become kmodtized. i think this moved down to 21 as
your opportunity to buy it again. not on the reasons that you gave me on the last eight years. >> one could argue that that would set up very nicely. >> did folks at home hear that noise? >> i think it's regis coming out. >> these guys make complex nitrogen fertilizers. there has been a lot of m & a activity. these are long term trades. these are very cyclical trades. i think supplies are tighter and a better place to be.
>> first up apple and google. google and audi reportedly working to develop in car entertainment systems. jim? >> makes a lot of sense to me. frankly it's big enough for both of them. i like them both. it's just a valuation call. cars are becoming more and more connected and this makes perfect sense. apple is the favorite. >> black stone making a 200 million $investment in crops. it expects to launch in the first quarter. company also revealing john mccarvill will retire. >> there was talk of early november, black stone sort of holding that torch and now obviously you have this black stone news now.
you don't get in the way of crocs here. but as tim was saying, the real call continues to be black stone. >> i think black stone continues to work at these levels. >> do you own a pair? >> of what? >> crocs. >> way back in the day -- >> you did? >> no. >> you know how you clean your croc cro crocs? throw them in the dish washer. >> right next to your heelies. >> finally, home sweet home. an uptick of 2 -- .2% in november. that is the most since may but less than expected. >> we all need a place to house our crocs, but in terms of the
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♪ >> disney snagging an upgrade to a buy from a neutral, sending the stock to an all time high today. this as its hit, "freeozen" isn showing any signs of cooling off. will 2014 be a better year? >> could it be a better year? since 2011, this is almost a triple. we have talked all year about content. you can talk about netflix and different ways to get that content but the ones that are in the driver's seat are disney.
i wouldn't want to short it. if you could get that triple, no reason you can't take a third off. >> gug him cited a number of catalysts as well as a lot of picks coming out. >> i have never seen star wars. >> you haven't? >> no interest. >> really? i thought you were going to ask me if i had ever seen star wars, i would say no and you would make fun of me. >> we are all a little stunned by this call. >> but disney, if you look, the last quarter wasn't fantastic and the stock has rallied despite that. to beak's point, too much too fast. >> that content is a two way street. when it hits it's wonderful but when you get a pluto nash. >> what? >> you don't know pluto nash?
>> could this lagging retailer shine in 2014? that is the question this today's street fight. our debate will last a total of 90 seconds. tim is the bull. brian is the bear. so we're going to, because he's our guest, we're going to start off with the bear case. >> i think walmart is the absolute loser stock. if you want to lose money, go invest in walmart in 2014. in terms of the economy, you're having walmart moms in america navigate isles. secondarily, they're not shopping the whole store. walmart is lowering prices by a billion dollars. they need customers to shop the entire store and they're not. i'm worried about margins. massive inventory build for the stores. that's a big problem. >> brian makes compelling points, but when i look at the stock overall, part of this is
ma crow, and part of this is valuations. at 15 times versus 27 times, very, very cheap. at 12 times a forward multiple, it depends on whether you look at walmart on a short term or long term basis. when you look at their global business, this is what i look at. i have owned some of the places that have given them problems but ultimately they are growing. they have gone from 23% five years ago to 28%. but this becomes a defensive stock in a consumer upswing environment. everything is going in the company's favor in the united states at a valuation with rotation going on. this has been a defensive stock. it may not have outperformed but i'm looking towards tomorrow. >> i would say that walmart is expensive at this valuation. two earnings wars in 2013. coming in by 20 cents. >> that is the place where this stock is cheap, where it should
be bought. key level to break out. your stop on this is 72. there you get out but at this point, risk reward to the upside. >> valuation is always brought up. you take a look at macy's and the pe of macy's. walmart is is a little more expensi expensive. the question is not necessarily which retail stock is the best. but inherent in this question is if you invest in walmart or is there a better place within the space? >> i think there are better places. i don't think brian would argue or tim would argue. i think to bryant's point, that was interesting. you saw almost a 5% inventory build. i don't know if you get a warning from them in february. if you do, that could be disappointing for the broader market. here at the current levels, i
don't think you necessarily are going to get hurt being long. so it's sort of like that. >> if you want to win, look at that. clock invasion cycle. >> i just think, brian, you make a very good argument. great analytics. i think it works well as a paired trade. pick one of the names you just mentioned. against a short in walmart. to negatively go bearishly short on walmart is unfortunately fighting against the tide of where we are in the cycle. >> i just want to be clear. you're not necessarily staying short, you're a bear on the stock. >> correct. celebrating on walmart and believe it or not, target, too. much better story. a company that is not struggling on a couple of cylinders, this is a company that is going
through a growth period. they have got the international guideline is really why you want to look. >> we want to know who won this street fight. tweet us with bull or bear. we will have the results at the end of the show. time now for pops and drops. big movers of the day. a pop for lion's gate. >> i thought it would hold but it didn't. these are levels you still want to be low. content is where you want to be. lion's gate is where you want to be. >> almost 1% for a stock that has come from 15 up to 40 is not really that big of a deal. that being said, a lot of the stuff being talked about all year is probably priced in. in this name, i'm probably take a third off. >> big one up 11%. >> this is going to sound strange coming from a value investor, but i think you ride this. this has all the hallmarks of a
very good growth stock. the fundamentals of more smart phones and tablets will support. >> pop here for solar. >> yeah, the roller coaster ride for this stock on the way up now after some disappointing numbers look good. it's all ability capacity and demand, real demand out of asia. >> and a pop here for time squares restaurant chains. the hottest place to ring in the new year is right here in times square and some are taking advantage of their prime real estate. vip tickets to ruby tuesday will run you nearly $700. and tgi fridays is charging more than a grand a couple. and apple bbees has a live dj a premium open bar. >> i'm guessing you have already bought your bell bottoms?
>> you're note guessing, you knew because i showed you. >> after you showed him your suede fest, he showed you his bell bottoms. >> when you go cheesecake factory versus applebees? >> i'm a cake guy. >> quite the controversy. we sat by the fire, had the sampler. >> we're going to be here tomorrow night doing our new year's eve show and there is no question this team is going to head off of the desk and go straight to applebee's. >> magical 2014 on tap. coming up neck xt we are going global. dennis will tell us where he is betting big on the new year and tomorrow is your last chance to make money in 2013. we get you ready for your last trade of the day. ♪ bny mellon combines investment management & investment servicing,
years. the trade back on for 2014, let's bring in dennis gartman. hi, nice to see you. >> good to see you, mel. thank you. >> what are the catalysts that are going to push the market higher ne eer next year. >> same thing that has been pushing the nikkei higher. the bank of japan is going to be extraordinarily expansionary. i think you will see economic activity picking up. the weakness of the japanese yen will have a very, very strong impact. so i want to be long on the nikkei, and short on the s&p one against the other. at the same time i want to be short the japanese yen and i will continue to hold the same trade i had for a long period of time. i want to own gold. basically it is one large short the yen trade.
>> are there particular kinds of sectors that you would be more inclined to be in if you were not predisposed to investing? >> i would probably go with the same thing that i have been doing in the united states. i want to own simple things. i want to own metals, shipping, railroads. i want to own those things that are incumbent in global economic growth. i think the same things strong in the states will be strong in japan. >> what do you do about 23 times the multiple? >> i tend to agree with you. that's a little scary. >> sit a little scary. i bet that they do next year. suddenly you will end up seeing instead of 23 times earning, we will be back to 15, 16, 17 times earning. when it so, i'm not as.
>> dennis, you think there is a trade. is there a trade gene knie, or you not want to get involved? >> i don't want to get involved. it's easy to be short on the bond market. it's far more difficult to be short. i will leave that to guys who are wiser and smarter than i. will oil go sharply higher? >> it could go sharply higher. >> i want to get your take on that call. >> i am quietly bullish.
>> they are going to be fracing all around the world. the amount of oil they find around the world will be very burr donsome. >> it takes a while to start fracing in africa and number two we have a tremendous amount of demand. there is only a couple million barrel differential. in '07, '08, that differential disappeared quickly. >> we'll see. right now it's fairly well ball lapsed. you do have one thing in your favor. the term structure is back. it's very difficult to be short crude oil when your term structure is backwards. i'm going to stand on the sidelines. if you held a gun to my head and said what do you think the next ten dollar move is going to be, i'm not willing to place that bet. >> happy new year, good to see you.
>> happy new year and happy birthday to my daughter on january 1. >> yes, happy birthday courtney. seeking some protection today. >> particularly in the sectors and on a day like today when sector traders have an exto to grind, sectors showing that kind of activity. the industrial sector, six points for every call. the energy sector five puts traded for every call. >> you are paying most attention to the utilities action? >> one of these things is not like the others. easy to see why. we saw big put buyers today.
over 7,000 of those traded today. that means something is looking for protection. they are afraid of xlu. >> coming up next, we are taking to the skies airline stocks flying high. more fast straight ahead. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade.
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just a tap away on the geico app. >> one of the hottest trades this year but with names like spirit and delta up more than 120%, is there still more room to climb? hunter, great to see you. you're not going for the underperformers but ones that have put in decent gains. with the multiples on these stocks are still so low.
there is still a good mix. it tills me there is still a lot of skepticism. >> what more can they do? >> i think we're going to start to see some capacity coming back online, which is good. that is only sustainable so long. you have to see margin expansion so long. only about six or seven%. you need to see sustainable cash flow. still very risky enterprises. that's still going to take some time. and good things should happen. >> get in that capacity, 3 billion possibly in new aircraft? that's something that scares people that are hoping to see free cash flow generation?
>> yeah. >> united really struggled since their merger. there is catch up that needs to be made. if united gets their margins right, there should still be enough to generate between 5$50 and a billion in cash. >> the stock had that early pop. can't get out of its own way. is jet blue interesting here? >> it's not interesting. i think that's a little overhyped. they're writing a check to get these assets. their margins are just okay. they have more leverage on their balance sheet. even more than the legacy.
and they continue to buy planes, so they have the growth opportunities. but they are not earning their cost of capital. >> spirits another one of your data. >> i don't mean to say this in a disparaging way but he was complaining about the security fees almost doubling because it's per ticket which would hurt a little more than some of the others. is that an issue? >> it is an increditable statistic. they're in the business of stimulating demand. look at this. i can go to shik this weekend and see the bears play and i can get this ticket for $35. those are the passengers.
these guys are fighting the tax battle. they have drawn the line. i'm not adjusting my model, but sure, there's going to be some that will be affected. >> quick question for you on multiples. we have gotten used to the middle single digit multiple. i'm wondering, i want you to dance with this and push back on this. maybe they should trade at seven to eight next year's earnings. >> i agree with you. >> but that -- that would say sell it now because most of these guys are trading. >> united is trading at five times. >> 14 or 15? >> the year end target price.
that's with a zero percent tax rate because they have a $10 billion carry forward for years of losses which they earned, by the way. i would agree with you. their stocks are still very volatile. we think it should go from five to eight. >> real quick, do you see dividends from united? >> they have talked about cash deployment. they really need to start generating cash free margins up. >> hunter, thank you. breaking news on a train derailment in north dakota north dakota. sema? >> a crude oil train has derailed near a north dakota north dakota town. as many as half a dozen cars have left the tracks and caught fire. smoke can be seen up to 20 miles away. so far there are no reports of
you tweet it we trade it. let's get to some of the tweets today. tim? marathon oil, outlook for 2014. >> i think these guys are very interesting. and even more so on the dividend side. so i think this is is a stock you can stay in and i believe that a lot of people are rotating into this sector. >> yeah? are we sure? all set. >> he brought you in the conversation so i was expecting you to chime in. >> i'm like a deer in the headlights. refiners, it's one of the trades that i like an awful lot. again, you have refineries at 95% of capacity. that's going to be a problem. >> the lesson here is that you have got to be on your toes even if it's not your tweet? >> listen, you have got to get
that stuff. >> get us around the trade. >> will ebay continue its 50 to $55 range? >> the range has been basically 49 to 57. it will be that lower high since february. we just saw a trade down to 49. i don't think you trade it from the short side. >> all right. this one is for jim. merk is stuck at 49ish. is it setting a floor or a ceiling? >> this is is a defensive stock and one that we happen to like but it's hard to put your finger on a catalyst. maybe there would be diversetures. >> bk? amd. >> that's me. >> i wanted to be sure you're paying attention. >> will it make a run in 2014 like micron did? >> it could.
already up 110%. there is enough research out there. is there is a lot of catalysts in this. it's worth a shot. >> i tell you what, on a value basis. you're wrong. i'm not that silly. >> did you just call me silly? >> this sector is a place where a lot of people are suddenly looking. >> all right. we have got your first move tomorrow, which is also your final trade for 2013 when we come right back. stay tuned. ♪ the ocean gets warmer. the peruvian anchovy harvest suffers.
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so i got the windows nokia tablet. it's, well, impressive. it's got the brightest hd screen, super-fast 4g lte, so my son can play games and movies almost anywhere, and it's got office for school stuff. but the best part? i got the lumia 928 for my daughter for free, with the best low-light smartphone camera this side of the north pole. dad for the win. mm! mm! mm! ♪ honestly, i want to see you be brave ♪ tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. dad for the win. mm! mm! mm!
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading. >> brian, our guest trader become the trophy on walmart. >> it was a good match. a good fight. >> time for the final trade meaning the last trade you can put on tomorrow being the final trading day of the year. >> i know you're a big fan. >> big fan. yep. go ahead.
>> i think one of the best guys in the space is robert with goldman sachs. just upgraded it in november. i think there is a lot of wind behind their sales. >> brian kelly? >> i'm going to give you the red queen trade. she said it takes you all that you can do to stay in place. >> you're going to have to drill it. an awful lot of oil in the u.s. just to keep up with the declining well rates. that is the way to go. >> i didn't think that was going to where it got. >> you didn't this so? >> not at all. >> that's what b.k. does. he brings things in that you wouldn't think about. >> tim? >> ccu, chile's large's brewer. this is a trade for 2014 because
in 2013 there was a lot of issues around this company making a bad acquisition. they are the dominant beer producer in a market that had a lot of pressures. it's a great long-term pick. i would look at this one. >> jim? >> exelon. that is one ugly chart when it comes up. tax law selling has been going up. look at that. ugly ugly. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. thank you so much for watching. we will see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. a full day of trading and a regular show tomorrow. in the meantime, don't go anywhere. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. ♪ my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help
you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. well will come to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate you so call me at 800-743-cnbc. this could be aye an incredibly confusing time to be an investor. with the the news