tv Fast Money CNBC January 31, 2014 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
america renaissance. jim cramer says that's the single stock he hears the most about. people are finally getting behind it again. >> good to see you all. thanks so much for joining me. enjoy the super bowl however you're watching it if you are. "fast money" is coming up right now. melissa lee, what's cooking? >> we're going to talk about the january -- >> is that a puppy? >> oh, my gosh. you're right. it is a puppy. we've got special guests in here to celebrate. but the puppy bowl is also going on and we've got a couple of team mascots on on top of talking about the barometer and all that. >> i'm coming over. watch out. i want to hang out with the puppies. over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market no, sometimes square i'm melissa lee. let's get straight to our top story. volatility in full force. the broader market seeing big
swings for the final day of january. the dow, s&p, and nasdaq all down at session lows. finishing the day well off their lows. finishing down only 149 points. s&p down 11 and the nasdaq down 19. this month alone you should know the s&p slid just under 3.5% making it the worst january since 2010. and for the week it seemed like a terrible week, but really the indices were basically flat on the week. >> listen. we had a lot of big swings. 150, 200 points this morning. so the volatility certainly back. i for one don't think this is actually over. there's a lot of digit things on in emerging markets. tim said this a bunch of times. you can't paint them with the same brush but that doesn't mean the imbalances have changed. they need to be corrected. now that everybody has focused on these balances, they have to be tough. >> this is also the last day of the month. that has something to do with it. >> today when i came in i thought we'd see sell pressure.
there was some bouncing going on. they would start to see them stop the sell side. remember, monday, fun flows coming in. so you're going to have whoever wants to be buying stocks, whoever wants to be into that marketplace, you're going to see some of those fun flows coming in. that's the day they put money to work, but on tuesday you could see the market get tested again. i think we're going to crack the 100 day and i think sooner or later going to the 200 day. >> josh? >> speaking of fun flows, this is a decidedly risk off environmental in the last week or two and you've seen them react with their partnerships very quickly. everyone seems to have one foot out the door. $12 billion in net. u.s. equity fund outflows in the last week. that is the biggest weekly outflow number we've seen since 2012. look at what's performed well over the last five trading sessions. utilities up 3%. staples down only 1%. in the meantime, you have serious selloffs happening in retail, consumer discretionary,
consumer goods sat there just to give you a rough idea, down 6% so far on the year, which is a pretty big chunk out of that. so think when you look at bonds of five weeks straight, you're seeing people rejigger their portfolios a little too much option going into the year, this is very normal as rates are being reassessed and people start to think about the taper not stopping, which is the news we got. >> with all the doom and gloom, i've been doing this for 16, 17 years, i've seen this before. wrien has been good to point out the peripheral damage. today europe 10e8d off. we know how fragile europe is. it's going to be dederailed by even eastern europe. having said that, like at the data that came out. consumer confidence, gdp numbers, i know it's backward looking. most of it is based on consumer spending and trade. you look at the german ee faux,
highest since the beginning. the chinese data which came out also, you know, people want to believe that china's about to blow up. look. it's been a flat line for the last 12 months. i think it's been extreme positioning and people were coming into this year believing nothing was wrong. volatility was too cheap. >> i'm going to suggest that you think he's wearing rose colored glasses. >> yes. take a listen. let's talk about the gdp. it was great number except most of it was made up of an inventory bill which is fine if people come in and buy up that inventory. what we've seen with walmart, amazon, ford, they're saying, listen, it's not as rosy as we're all saying, that's going to continue. >> that sounds to me like a stock market call. that sounds like companies that were mispriced. 3 president 1% gdp, we're mid cycle in the cycle. >> you know what? if you could say, oh, maybe it was just ford, maybe it was just the weather, maybe it was just
walmart, how many names do we have to have? how many companies have to have war for us to say there's a problem out there. >> brian, it's interesting. if you listen to the calls and they ask the cfo or ceo where's the growth doing come from, to a man it's all emerging markets. so you have to believe that you're seeing multiples come down in stocks. you know, maybe not walmart's specifically. it's a big america store but in general, all right, everyone's looking to make their yearly numbers based on emerging markets. maybe that's ghoingt be a layup after all. >> it is official. january is in the books. it was not pretty. time to visit the january barometer and ask the key question. will january follow the poor performance. carter is at the boards. we mad you on december 31st. you told us about it. january, we finished lower. and now what? >> indeed here we are, end of the month and not so good. let's take a look and see if we can figure it out together. what are the probabilities of
any given year being down? in fact, it's fairly low as you see here. the probability of any given year being down is only 33%. markets basically go up over time. however, if january is negative, watch what happens to this percentage. itups from it jumps from 33 to 58. it jumps from 33 to almost 60. here's what we're looking at. whelp january is down, december to january rest of year on average is up 1.65%. so that's what one could use as an average for this year. is that good? it's still an up year, but compare it to what the average is. if you have an up january,
usually you get 8.5%. so the problem here is this down january really hurts the rest of the year returns. take a look at two charts, s&p is right on its trend line and as opposed to the bounce, the bounce, the bounce that we've gotten, it's our premise that we're going to break. as volatility increases, you cannot maintain a stable up trend like that. the russell for what it's worth, it, too, has touched the line over and over and over. guess what happened today? ever so slyly we breached trend. the presumption here too, lower prices. >> carter, we had a couple of breaks of the 100 day last year. when you're looking at a minor break, you're looking at a minor break we saw three times last year or a test of the check at the 1705 issue level? >> more so. we think we're going into the 1600s. >> we're going let grow to get ready for "options action." let's trade what carter has
said. tim seymour, you said we're not making a big de. it's a lot different than what people were expecting going into the year. >> but when was the last time we had a january coming after a year when we did 28%? we're at extraordinary times. when did we have this at a time the fed gave you two and three. now ultimately that may be the reason why we're going through it. we're going through a period of digesting the reality of the fed coming out of the markets and this is doefrg with the unsettled nature of what we're to do. you ultimately have a fed on one that really is unprecedented. so that to me is a place we go. look at walmart numbers today. we're going to talk about some of the names. you have to find value and companies that you think are going to appeal to people who have money to spend. again, if you look at the beige book that just came out, you are seeing wages going up in eight to 12 districts. >> i'll tell you the one year we did have an up january or the ten months preceding the down drop was 1929. there's this chart that's been going on. >> 1929.
>> why not. >> i'm glad you said that before i did. >> there's very similar economics to it. >> why don't we just talk about a problem with this kind of data mining when you have such a small sample size. since 1950 there's only been 24 januarys that have been down and 11 of those 24, the market actually did not finish lower than where it finished january. >> just quickly, brian, wrap this up. 1929? >> if this correlation holds there's a lot of similarities with the economics. if you look add standard deviation animal sis you're looking -- >> you do not buy and sell real estate based on how it did in january. >> we've got to go, guys. what's behind the oil anomaly? pchl k.'s got an idea. that's next.
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as chairman. >> we don't know if they're mutually exclusive. maybe two winners in washington. so ultimately if you think about microsoft, i think what people believe with mr. nadella, this is going to get the image out of the past. enterprise is going to be very important and this is where you can expect the company to outperform. if you look at the valuation of microsoft after what's been a pretty good run here for a stock that was really dead in the water for five or six years you're in a place where you're fairly priced. >> when's the last time we saw microsoft at 40 bucks? not for a long time. could it hit 40 if bill gates was actually out or is it a case of t -- the victim of having the chairman/ceo there. >> perception is reality.
so i think you bring up a good point. think without him it probably does better. >> he's really uninvolved. he's much more involved with philanthropy which is phenomenal. >> if they asked -- >> which was the case with ray clock. >> i thought ronald mcdonald was running it. >> i thought it was the hamburg lar. >> new record highs this after the tech titan reported a miss. inching ever closer to that $400 billion market. it's interesting because there's so many people on the street who love the stock no matter what. >> exactly. we discussed it the other day saying you're waiting for the dip to come on earnings. you've got a brief spot after they reported it to buy it on the dip and then it ran off to the races. i'm actually going to wait for the mackerel market to break. >> you got out and you're waiting for the opportunity that and waiting and waiting and waiting that and you're still going to wait.
what's your opportunity? >> next week i'm off. forget about it. i'm greedy. i want it at 1,060 is what i'm looking at. i sold it at 1,021 up from the 880 range. that's what i'm looking for. i could go below the face which i've been doing but eventually i'm going to bite the bullet and buy it. amazon having its worst day and today walmart cut estimates for its holiday quarter. pressure for two major giants. everybody thought amazon was winning at the expense of a walmart and it seems like maybe nobody really won this battle, josh. >> i think that all of these retail companies are victims of their own success. they had a really good year in terms of stock price last year and sometimes what comes along with that is analysts to up estimates so they can catch one the share price and what ends up happening, you do that for four quarters, you're not going to be thrilled with the results. at a certain point things aren't
that great. i think you heard that. in ups, the shining side of that as well. people get over it relatively quickly. i don't think it's anything to be concerned with. >> the big thing, spending is very strong and you have to look at wages. personal spending was up 2.4. spending has not fallen off the click. ultimately they have cut margins to nothing and also the holiday season was spread out over three months so don't expect the old metrics for comparison here even count. >> you know, as we said last night, people haven't opened up their heating bill for the month of january and we've had a 30% increase in gas, 45% in heating oil. >> offset wi the drop of what they're paying at the pump. it's all relevant. >> let's talk about heating oil. we saw itten the rise. we saw natgas fall. so your spity senses were ting ting. >> yesterday was the heath oil options and futures. it was up 2%.
but the rest of the energy complex down. wednesday was natural gas. it was up 13% on wednesday. so to me it looks as though somebody's being forced out of a levered position, a short cold weather position here where they were short natural gas, short heating oil, expiration comes, and they're forced to cover. i wouldn't be surprise, and i have noed in on it. again, it's spidey senses. >> last week we talked about how to play the storm. with natgas, that was the best way to play it. natgas, hitting it at certain levels it hasn't in quite some time. time to take profits there and time to take profits in the actually commodity because even though we receive the colder weather it has a lid on it for the short term. >> we have our january trades but first we're celebrating the super bowl here at the nasdaq and in the house tonight we've got miles, the denver broncos mascot and riebl blimps from the seattle seahawks plus a boat
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that was gros sow, not the dog, by the way. time for "pops & drops" chipotle grill. tim. >> that is not dog food they're serving. it's very good food. it could not do it today. i would be a seller of that move. >> newmont mining. >> the stocks slid aggressively intraday. i probably would. be there. >> a drop from mass ta car. we talk about dogs wagging the tail. >> ba zynga, jb. they get the simulation games. wall street loves the news. >> and we've got a pop four
puppy bowl to celebrate we have some puppies on set tonight with the rep of the big game. it is the tenth annual animal planet puppy bowls with puppy tackles and penalties. it airs at 3:00 p.m. these guys, max, buddy, charlie, lola, by the way, are all available for adoption this monday from the connecticut humane society. so if these guys don't take them home -- >> something's coming out of it. i'm not sure what's coming out of mine exactly. it's liquidy, moist. >> who's a good boy. who's a good boy. >> all right. let's do our final trades now. it's so fun having these puppies on set. >> these dogs could be creating a little fertilizer in our laps right now by potash. >> josh brown. >> i'm going with vca an tech which makes veterinary medicine.
the ticker is wolf. >> we've got the ecba next week. you can buy eeuo. >> grasso. >> s.o. again the final trade. >> we've had a little mascot rivalry here. we've got miles of the broncos, blitz of the seahawks. they're both here at the nasdaq market site and they have also got their final trade. so, miles, what is yours? >> bud "light." >> all right. blitz? >> hello, pete. what's that. >> lob --
oh. loblaw. lesion of boo.
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we'll tell you the surprising sector where fast trades are happening now. and after a huge earnings rally, we'll explain why it's time to cash your tips on wind resorts. "options action" begins right now. game on. live from the nasdaq market site in new york's super bowl of times square, i'm melissa lee. these are the traders here at the desk and we're going to start the show with a bit of a mystery. stocks pose another week and high growth names are on fire. check out google. check chipotle as well. it sells your burritos and now it's worth over $17 million. facebook now worth more than disney. if the market is so worried about a meltdown i why are investors paying so much to own these names? dan, threat is curious price action considering this is a market allegedly on edge. >> it seems like they're crowding those names.
all three of those names all made new all-time highs today, traded high valuations. other than google, let's just say. but to me i think you've got focus on some of the stuff that's not working. look at the boeing. it's almost 15%. stop like proctor and johnny john, they're stocks considering to be defensive and they can't get out of the way. so stocks going bananas on the front actually make me a bit nervous. it's beginning to be a crowded trade and it speaks to kind of this concentration that i do not think you want at this point of a correction. >> i think our skepticism about the valuation in chipotle was something we had already talked about. i still feel that way. you know, when i take a look at this, take a look at what chipotle's multiples are in the next 12-month earnings. that's with a 30% revenue growth which is obviously a good number. but really the question is does that stack up? does that growth stack up to that multiple? i d