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tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  March 13, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda. good friday morning. it is 11:00 a.m. -- actually 10:00 a.m. at south by southwest in austin, texas, 11:00 a.m. on wall street, "squawk alley" is live. ♪ ♪
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joining us this morning live from south by southwest kara swisher, co-executive editor at re/code. good morning to you. jon fortt and kayla tausche with the dow down 211, market day is getting awfully interesting as we continue to watch some that are strength and oil is within about a dollar of taking out its lows for the year. we're going to keep our eye on that. in the meantime we'll talk more about what's going on. where you are, kara, we begin with some talk about apple as well. steve jobs, fast company, releasing a ton of information about apple, ahead of its upcoming biography "becoming steve jobs" according to the bio jobs became close with bob iger at disney. iger recalls, quote, we would stand at a white board brainstorming, talked about buying companies, buying yahoo! together. another excerpt reveals current
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ceo tim cook tried to donate part of his liver to a sick jobs back in 2009 but jobs refused. quote he cut me off at the legs before the words were out of my mouth. no, he said, i'll never let you do that. i'll never do that. between that, the goldman conference the other day, the call to the jim show last night, a lot of information out there regarding apple right now. >> yeah. they have been in the news. they've always been in the news. let's not pretend they've been secretive. we always seem to know about them even though they've been in control of the message. this is another friendly message from apple. i think walter isaacson book was a little controversial within the apple community because it didn't paint the happiest picture of jobs. this is a human picture of jobs by people who knew him really well. >> this is, as you mentioned, sort of revisiting jobs' legacy, the cover of "fast company" says kind, patient, human, what is it about his legacy was misunderstood to this point. >> one of the things i think about it's right in the middle. this is probably a very friendly
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book that's why they got so much cooperation. and brent did like steve jobs. i think one of the things that people miss about him they said he was heartless. probably was all heart which is why he was difficult. everything mattered to him. if i had to say that was the most misunderstood thing they misunderstood the passion for something at times could be cruel, angry and things like that so he was a complicated man and i think you should read all the stuff about him because he's a historical figure and he has left a huge legacy. he's going to be complicated like many people, like thomas edison, henry ford. >> what do you make of the excerpt that suggests jobs and bob iger talked about buying yahoo! together. >> i know. >> of course kafrds yahoo! for a while. do you have any inkling that thing was being kicked around and in retrospect if that would have made sense or not. >> there was a time during that
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time period where yahoo! was in play with microsoft if you remember and so disney was one of the companies raised as not microsoft to buy it and so you can see that easily happening. it was pretty strong, it was much stronger five to tens years ago than it was today. it's a very different world. no snapchat, facebook not nearly as powerful and yahoo! would have been something like disney would have looked at for sure. >> reshaping the landscape of business, some of the decisions that took place at that white board, kara, the book also says that bob iger turned down a role on google's board because he was worried that steve jobs would take it too personally. how would things at google be different if iger would have taken that board seat? >> i don't know. you know, he's a very smart guy, one of my favorite media executives. he's always sort of not scared of the internet which is my criteria for a good media executive. but, you know, i think not that much different. i think that there was a real acrimony more to the point
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because steve jobs and google at that point and so probably wasn't the right thing to do for iger. >> bringing it to the present day, of course, tim cook did call in to jim cramer's show last night for the tenth anniversary of "mad money." take a listen to this. >> the competition, are you feeling like that you've kind of left it behind or every day do you come in and say someone might have a better mouse trap. >> we're always paranoid and live paranoid and want the best product. if we're not beating someone else we're trying to beat the thing that we have currently shipping. >> do you -- >> everybody here lives on edge. >> he says, they're paranoid, says -- >> yeah. >> steve jobs' office is next to his, still has his name on the sdmoor yep. apparently. apparently. i think that's unusual but that's okay. they can do that. he's a historical figure. apple is blabby, trying to sell some watches, always trying to sell something, and they're very friendly with -- much more friendly with the media although i still contend steve jobs was
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very much in the media when he needed to be to sell products. >> i think your a getting nodding heads at this table. re/code had a great piece on how much snapchat and its publishing partners want to get paid for ads on its discover platform. ad pricing about $100 for every thousand views, a rate nearly two times what a premium video publisher can get. the average publishers get around 10 cents a view from 500,000 to a million times a day. the publishers can command 50,000 to $100,000 a day for their stuff. why does this matter? >> the youngs are using snapchat and discover part of snapchat is fantastic. it's a great product. i use it all the time. it's a great way to preview content and go to content. so, you know, as long as there's lots of -- it's a great way to get young people reading content and a creative way and it's a substantive way. it isn't silly. do you use it? i use it all the time. it's very substantive way to
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look at content. >> i know you're still in your 20s but the youngs are using it. >> the youngs. >> is this sustainable in any sense for snapchat or just a matter of a, they're rolling this out, they're buzzing right now and while there's limited supply of this, they can charge these sky high cpms. >> probably. it's a great product, period. i don't know who -- why twitter or others didn't think of it but it's a great product. it's a great way to consume content and whether it's busy or not, at its very base it's a great product so it's a great product. i don't know what to say. it keeps -- people will copy it. that's what will happen. >> it's not even two months old, though, and the argument from some people is that everything is expensive before it's scalable, before it gets, you know, bided on so is this just a phenomenon true for pretty much every nascent technology in the ad buying space. >> everybody wants to find the thing that works. this thing seems to be working. the youngs, they want the youngs and there they are on snapchat
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consuming the content there and the products they make. right now it's, you know, the way facebook was so trendy for a while and other mediums people use. this what is young people are using and they are consuming this content on this platform and we'll see how long that lasts. i really like it. i use it. just use it and you'll see why it's so infectiously usable. it's a very good product. and that's where everything comes down to. it's not a trendy -- doesn't feel like a trendy product but might be a trendy app, who knows. >> interesting. kara, you're down in austin at south by southwest. y you arrived on the red i. >> i did. >> you asked on twitter what's the big trend, if at all? any answers. >> no. i think, you know, there's a lot of people in suits here and a lot of big brands so feels a little -- i haven't gotten here yet and i haven't had my giant pounds of meat and other barbecue items but it feels a little corporate i have to say so far. we'll see what happens over the weekend. there's a lot of very cool
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panels. i'm on one about women and tech. all kinds of interesting speakers here. so we'll see what happens, but it's feeling a little suits, lot of suits i'm seeing. >> last time i remember south by being clearly about something, maybe 2009, 2008, when it was the location based check-in stuff with four square and gu walla. those didn't take off. i'm hearing it might be live video streaming on top of social. >> yeah. >> we've seen meerkat take off, stream out there, and the rumors about twitter rolling out parascope. any idea about that in particular this year? >> yeah. you know, it's interesting. that's another great product. peter is here and going to be talking and doing an interview with the meerkat guy here. you know, that's interesting stuff. and we'll see how much that lends itself to the southwest experience. you may see a lot of live streams of people falling down drunk. i'm not sure what you can do from here. but there's going to -- it's an interesting trend around gopro, all these video, these live
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streaming video stuff is really cool and it is cool. >> apparently no drones? austin declared a drone-free zone. >> apparently. there will be drones. wherever there's geeks there's drones. but they're going to try to bar them from parts of the things because they are dangerous and, you know, they fall down. so -- we lost one in a tree the other day, our video editor lost our drone in the tree. i don't know what we're going to do. >> call the fire department when that happens if. >> no. >> drone goes up a tree? >> i lost a thousand dollars the re/code drone is dead. we'll see what happens. >> it's a shame. >> great to see you. have fun down there. i'm sure we'll talk again. >> yes. absolutely. any time. >> speaking of south by southwest twitter co-founder biz stone is in austin and will join four a first on cnbc interview later this hour. keeping an eye on the markets, dow down 188 points. s&p down almost 18 to 2048. break even for the week is 2071.
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when he come back when it comes to social where can marketers get the best return on investment? mark mahaney has new numbers and will join us. everything from social media to valuations. live from south by southwest. biz stone in a first on cnbc interview in a moment. there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. sometimes, at last doesn't happen at first.
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welcome back to "squawk alley." pandora shares are up about 9% right now. the internet radio company the topic of unsubstantiated market chatter regarding what could be a possible deal. i mean this happened -- this has happened in the past as well, the kind of deal rumor. nonetheless shares are powering ahead. want to point that out to you. they have traded 7.5 million shares more than its average full day trading volume over the last four months. bets are outpacing bearish option ones in terms of trading volume. again, guys, pandora, unsubstantiated chatter about a possible deal but still the shares are up nearly 10%. back to you, kayla. >> thanks so much, dominic chu. the broader markets we are down for the week on all major averages. nasdaq had been in the green from the open, trying to post some green today but as you can see, the breath across the board is stunning for all sectors. dow aiming for its fourth triple digit move in five sessions. to say this has been a choppy week is an understatement.
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data negative coming out this morning on consumer sentiment and ppi. we'll keep an eye on the markets for you. moving to broader tech, youtube, facebook, and twitter, could be the social media standouts for market channels according to a study on social media advertising by rbc and ad age. mark is lead internet analyst with rbc capital markets. it's 2015, so we've gotten to a point where social media advertising is not optional but how is it changing this year versus last year? >> okay. good morning, kayla. we're seeing increased interest in social media advertising. we ran with ad age our fifth survey of approximately 1,000 advertisers, marketers, digital ad agency representatives, 75% plan to increase their spend with social media in 2015, we continue to see rising interest for a group as the whole, not evenly but the group as a whole. >> interestingly the poll sur y surveys marketing executives
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with budgets from under $500,000 to above $100 million. i'm wondering how you see the breakdown where people are getting the most bang for their buck and higher end, do they have the budgets to experiment across the board? >> so, you know, two points here. one i think social media, digital and internet long left many years ago, the experimental phase. i think social media left the experimental phase of ad budgets, at least facebook, left that about two years ago and now you are seeing people look at them as a really relatively competitive roi channel. one of the most interesting results of the survey for us is google is the highest recorded roi channel on-line. number two, relatively close was facebook. so they've really proven themselves to broad range of advertisers small and large. >> mark, square this for me. you say the perceived relative roi of facebook the last time you did the survey went down a little bit but at the same time,
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you say facebook had a tie for the number of advertisers who plan to hike their spend, the highest percent planning to spend more than a fifth of their budget and more than half believing their roi has increased in the past 12 months. on the one hand it's down, the roi perception, and on the other hand saying, it's increasing. what's really happening there if? >> you're pointing out nuances in the report. we surveyed a lot of people. bound to be nuances. what we were trying to test is over the last two years, we have certainly seen inflation at facebook more advertisers have discovered facebook, ad prices are going up. we're trying to figure out if the roi is starting to come in because ad pricing has come up. a little bit of evidence of that. still it's still that close to google and the drift down small, we don't think it changes the core thees sis on facebook but something to watch. no doubt pricing is going up on facebook. it will hit a ceiling, hasn't yet but will at some point. >> sounds like the enthusiasm
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for twitter is tempered. what's going on there? >> i think that's right. this is the first time we've seen a decline kind of a cresting in advertiser interest in twitter. it's still positive, we still see more advertisers wanting to spend more with twitter than less, but the rate at which they want to spend more is declining. that may sound nuanced to you but that's what we're looking for. the big challenge for twitter they can fix this problem, but is that unlike google they don't have real-time commercial intent and unlike facebook they don't have a billion, you know, real-time authenticated user profiles advertisers can use for targeting. they're stuck in the middle, have to prove themselves to advertisers. that's one of the biggest reasons we have a hold on the stock. >> you say they can fix that. how? >> well -- >> users -- >> that's -- they don't necessarily need to get a billion users and don't know why they keep claiming they will be bigger than facebook and i don't think they will get the real time commercial intent engine to create that. that's google's and going to be google's the next 20 years. what they can do is build up
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robust profiles in each user. they have to change the use case and get people to divulge more information about themselves and use third-party agencies to really kind of -- and data bases to better refine the data they offer to advertisers. it's a long slog. >> mark, 72% of respondents said they plan to allocate budgets to instagram. for the nasen platforms we might be out of the experimental phase, snapchat, pinterest what's the demand for people responding to your survey. >> you're right. those are the experimental names. on facebook we've talked for a while about a couple greenfield revenue opportunities they have, that facebook has. two things we've been looking for evidence of. do we see people buying in on auto play video ads. survey said yes, 10% are buying in and 50% very or somewhat interested in buying auto play video ads on facebook. a nice distinct positive for facebook. they have the instagram asset more than 300 million users barely started monetizing it.
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what looks like to us clear from the survey advertisers want in, to be able to advise on instagram. our guess facebook will hold that off until next year. a great opportunity for facebook. >> billion dollar deal looking smarter every day. appreciate you joinings us. >> thank you, kayla. >> mark mahaney from rbc. >> the dow is now down just over 200 points. s&p and nasdaq down just under a percent the as well. what is moving. plus a little later on twitter co-founder biz stone will join us live from south by southwest. it's a first on cnbc interview when "squawk alley" returns. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.
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not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda. ten years of changing financial media. friday the 13th looks like this. not a whole lot of the s&p is trading in the green. negative again for the year. break even for the year, 2058 and oil, less than a dollar from its lows for the year. let's get to bob pisani on the floor.
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>> we have two problems, carl, the first is the more important one, the dollar spiking up again. we have the same story, strong dollar, weak euro. you buy europe, sell the united states, that's one problem. the second problem is the one you mentioned. that's oil. remember the old low in oil, 4437, not that long ago, and we are only about a dollar away from that. so this pressure on the energy sector and some other energy sensitive sectors. take a look at the s&p 500. we're just off of the lows here. in fact, we are sitting at the lows right now for the s&p 500. and you take a look at some of the sectors here, you'll see interest rate sensitive sectors as well as energy and materials. whenever you get strong dollar and weak oil it's kind of a double whammy for the energy sector here. that's the weak group along with materials and they've been hit all year of course on that stronger dollar. look at the xop, exploration and production. it's had a rough week but the good news it hasn't taken the
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market down. today a little more influence on that, there it is year to date. a lot of people have tried to buy bottoms. i keep bringing it up the volume is active. any time we get down to certain levels it's starting to roll over once again. xme, steel stocks, stronger dollar, decimated them. they're going nowhere and have been going nowhere throughout the whole year. a new low for the year and that particular group. to highlight the story about the strong dollar weak euro, look at the german stock market today it's on the upside and has been on the upside. spiked up in the last half hour as the dollar spiked up as we've seen the moves moving to the lows here in the united states. so carl, there is a clear corollary here when you see the dollar move up, a knee-jerk reaction, buy europe and sell the united states. carl, back to you. >> i'll take it from there, bob pisani on the floor for us, we'll check in with you later on. as we see softness in the equity markets and oil market there are signs of some froth elsewhere. more specifically, in the classic car market. in some cases cars are selling
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double what they were worth back in 2010. robert frank is back at headquarters with a closer look for us. >> hey, kayla. prices for classic cars up 140% over the last five years and 487% for the last decade making them the top performing collectible, but are prices rising too fast? we're going to get answers today with the big auctions in amelia island, florida, they run throughout the weekend. the three auctions expected to total $95 million this year. that's double last year's total ferraris lead the race as they always do. this 1960, 400 super america could sell $7 billion but the real signs of froth in the lesser collectible brands like portia and massarotti. at least four porsches that could sell. porsche is a less mass produced car not as rare as ferrari. the star of the weekend may also be the biggest sign of a bubble, there it is, 1956 massarotti 200
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si. it won a lot of races in the 1950s and driven by the great sterling moss, the formula 1 driver from that time. this car sold at auction in 2010 for 2.6 million. the owner is flipping it this afternoon. it could sell for between 5 and 10 million. that's doubling or tripling in just four years. by the way, there have been no improvements made to the car. same one that sold in 2010. mckeel haggerty says prices are slowing and aren't likely to pop like a bubble. he forecasts prices will be up around 4% this year compared to 15% last year. we'll see whether this is a bubble or just a moderating in price when that ferrari flips ins just a few hours. guys? >> we talk about valuations we need to think about cars when we say that. when we come back, keeping our eye on the dow. session lows down 233 and twitter co-founder biz stone will join us live from south by southwest. what does he make of the massive growth of social competitors
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hi, everybody. i'm sue herera. here's your news update at this hour. police in spain have arrested eight suspects accused of being islamic militants. the arrests after a series of raids across spain. the people are suspected of planning attacks in spain and recruiting fighters to send to syria and iraq. spain has arrested 21 people
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linked to islamic militant activities this year. kia is recalling more than 200,000 model 2014/2015 sol small suvs because the gas pedals can bend or break. the recall begins next week. apple announced its arrival in the luxury watch market with its $10,000 apple watch addition but what's a better investment that or rolex? find out by going to and imagine winning more than $1 million in the lottery and losing the ticket. that's what happened to this man in southern california. who bought the ticket last september, he never came forward to collect his prize, but he saw himself on the news and he came forward without the ticket but unfortunately the deadline for claiming that prize was yesterday. so he lost out. and that's our cnbc news update this hour. back to "squawk alley."
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>> thank you, sue. we're keeping our eye on the markets right now. session lows dow down 236, s&p down more than 20 now at 2043. euro by the way below 105. we'll watch that as well. in the meantime from snapchat to meerkats we're bringing our discussion of social media if full circle with one of twitter's founders. biz stone the co-founder and ceo of daily industries joins us this morning from south by southwest where he plans to unleash his latest social app called super. good morning. >> good morning, carl. >> you have been down this road going to austin trying to get people on to a new product. talk about super and what it is and your hopes for it in austin. >> you know, i don't want to have high hopes because i don't want to jinx anything but the plan for super is really just to make something fun because if something is fun, then people will use it. if a lot of people use it it becomes important.
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i consider super to be an evolution in social communication. >> biz, we had you on, i don't know, a couple months ago when super was first rolling out. i used it a couple times but i don't know, i didn't keep using it. some of the new features you're rolling out that gives users a broader look at what others on super are doing and talking about, your expectation that will make this a bit more of a community, maybe a little stickier? >> the community right now is very strong, but they have little visibility into what others are doing. so the most recent update is called explore and that shows you the trending hash "time" magazine tag -- hash tags, posts, window into the positive and energetic community that is going on on super right now and so that gives a window to people who are first coming to super and don't know -- don't have any friends yet on it. that shows them what it's all about. >> biz, do you launch the app in
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november? what have you seen from then to know that led you to believe explorer is the right way to capture some of that energy. >> explore is just one of those things you should have in a next generation social application. because all of the stuff is public and you want people to see -- you want to set the right tone for the early adopters. show people this is how you use it and this is how you don't use it. that's very important when you're trying to, you know, kindle the right kind of positivity in the community. otherwise, you may go south very fast. >> >> biz, what do you make of meerkat and some of the other streaming apps that are built on top of twitter? what does that tell us about using social as plumbing for things to build on top of it, something you're doing with super as well? >> yeah. this is a whole new world. it took us at -- when we first
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started twitter we had to claw our way, you know, claw our way to the first million people to use the service. along come these other services that build off of twitter and they just -- they have a million registrants in a day. it's a totally different world. you know, we don't have to have our own servers. we can use amazon web services, we cans just share out our supers to instagram and twitter and facebook and everyone can say what are those? i want to do those. they can go down the app. it's a totally different world. >> yeah. now the conversation is more -- i mean in the case of twitter, less about user base, although that's still part of the discussion, but obviously monetization. we went through the period, biz, where stocks in the high 30s, people had doubts about costolo, dorsey weighs in with a reaffirmation of management. you never really said much. what is your thinking regarding twitter's management? >> well, i have drinks with dick
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a lot. we're neighbors. we're good friends. the reason why evan and i hired dick in the first place is because we admired his leadership skills. we've known him for at least 15 years. and we've known him to be a great leader, a really funny guy, and that was always a key hiring personality at twitter was are they funny. and dick is a hilarious guy, which is important, because humor is like a secret delivery mechanism of truth. i think dick is an extremely good leader and i think the executive bench at twitter is just very deep, very talented. adam bain, incredibly nice guy but also incredibly good at his job. rarely do you have somebody who is so focused and so incredibly good at their job but also you would be happy to be stuck in an elevator with them. >> what would you say then, biz, now, looking at where twitter is and what could propel it for the next leg of growth with costolo at the helm?
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>> it's funny. i teach a class every year at stanford and in 2010, i asked the question, does anyone in this class think that twitter will do a billion dollars in revenue in its lifetime and nobody raised their hand. and, you know, i just did it a week ago. and now everyone is like well obviously it's making a lot of money. so, you know, i think the great thing about twitter is, there's so much room to grow he. i mean, and twitter is such an important tool for the world. it's not just about connecting with your friends. it's more like the world's bloomberg terminal. everything happening in the world is coorsing through twitter and so many more things happening that need to course through twitter and all of that can be monetized through their native platform. fantastic. >> finally we got ll gurley talking about cash burn rates every other week, mark cuban
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talking about valuat in th vc culture, beyondt's wha reasonableare you worried and do you think that creates malinvestment down the road? >> well, i think the key thing to keepn mind when you're thinking about valuations and that's is this company valuable. it's look at a company and see if it's valuable. valuable to people. linkedin yes, definitely valuable. people are getting jobs. recruiters are using every day. twitter is it value? delivering instant news around the world. history has shown when you get information quicker than the other guy, you do better. you look at a company and you can tell whether or not it's valuable. and then sometimes evaluations are higher, they're more aspirational and you back into them, which is fine, there might be some companies that are overvalued because they can,
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because there are a lot of dollars in the vc world right now and, you know, when you go to raise money you say well, we need $3 million, they say don't you mean 30? at the same time there's plenty of valuable companies and everybody knows not all these companies are going to make it and all the vcs know it too. it's a mixed bag. any one with common sense can tell value when they see it. >> always good having you. have fun in austin this week. we'll talk to you soon. >> thanks. also don't forget to download super at >> in fact, we -- our promo, we built a promo of you and darth one of the great twitter accounts in history, recreated it with the rainbow scheme. i don't know if you have return but that's your face as darth would have it. biz stone joining us from austin. >> thanks so much. >> let's get a fuse alert on gm. sue herera back at headquarters
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with more on that. sue? >> thank you very much. we do have news of a settlement in a high-profile case involving general motors and its defective ignition switches. that involves the second of two lawsuits filed by the family of brook milton who died in an accident involving a vehicle affected by the defective switch. the family had originally settled their case with gm for $5 million in 2013, but a few months later the miltons claimed that gm knew much more than it originally admitted during the original suit and filed a second suit charging gm with fraud involving the first settlement and now that second settlement has been struck for an undisclosed amount. all right. carl, back to you. >> sue, thank you very much. when we come back, stocks still sliding, dow down 240 points. we're keeping our eye on that move. rick santelli, what are you watching on this friday? >> we're going to have some fun on this friday the 13th. you know, there's a lot of issues right now, facing the globe. one of the major issues
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everybody around here talks about the long road to normalization with respect to our fed and central banks in general. i have two numbers for you to think about. 18 billion, 20.5 billion and i'll give you a clue, dude where's my bund? legalzoom has helped start] over 1 million businesses. if you have a business idea, we have a personalized legal solution that's right for you. with easy step-by-step guidance, we're here to help you turn your dream into a reality. start your business today with legalzoom.
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today. can he save the company's reputation? we'll talk about everything on the table. trading the oil glut. crude nearing its low for the year. how much more will it fall. ten years under bob iger, can he keep it going higher. we'll get the trades and "frozen" as well. you guys have been highlighting the move in the euro. it's just stunning yet again. >> yeah. breaking 105 once again. we'll see where the day takes us. markets as scott said are lower and bertha coombs is watching it from the nasdaq. >> you know, remember nasdaq 5,000, oh, so two weeks ago. as far as this week's performance goes, we've seen heavier selling particularly when it comes to the big caps. although the blue chips are off just over 1% and so is the nasdaq composite for the week. take a look at the nasdaq 100. the big reason why there is
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apple. apple really dragging down the big cap index here on the nasdaq. having a rough couple of days and just keeps breaking down as we trade here below $124 a share. apple up for the year but it's now down about 7.25% from its recent high back in february. that continues to be a big weight overall here. back to you guys. >> bertha coombs at the nasdaq, thanks so much. let's get over to courtney reagan at the nymex as the sea is predicting a glut in oil. >> hoping for a quiet day when it comes to commodities today is not your day. crude oil continues its slide down nearly 4% on the day, down about 7% for the week and like you mentioned the international energy agency basically saying look, the amount of supply that the u.s. has is something that we have never seen before. actually saying it continues to defy expectations. the iea worried the u.s. is
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going to run out of storage containers for crude. so that's one thing that is certainly at play here. that supply, you cannot ignore it. we are at the highest levels for the stock piles we have seen in 80 years. if you look at the other factors at play, when you're watching oil, the dollar's strength just continues to put pressure on these prices. we're less than a dollar away right now from the year's closing low which was 44.45. above $45 a barrel but if we break through $45 there's almost no stopping oil to continue that leg down. carl? >> all right. thanks very much. over to the cme group this morning. check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. rick? >> well, carl, you know, there's conditioning, pave lonen type conditioning. unfortunately for the economy in this country and maybe the world, there's been a couple of issues that have affected in my opinion the psyche of the u.s. federal reserve. and i think those two are
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t.a.r.p. and the taper tantrum. because i think in both cases, the market showed a bit of a hissy fit and i think it is if you wanted to boil it down because the market's opinion on wanting to keep a party going and wanting certain things, well no better way to get the fed's attention or leadership in washington, than have the market, the dow jones, have a big move or have interest rates have a big move. but the t.a.r.p. vote, they sure sped up trying to come back after the first one failed in terms of the taper tantrum, i think and ira harris and a lot of people i talk to think it's one of the reasons normalization is a dicey issue for the fed. i don't know what they're going to do in june or august or september or 2016, but what i can tell you is, there's a lot of different roads to farmalization and -- nor mallization. the two numbers, $18 billion and $20.5 billion, the $18 billion is a euro, $20.5 billion is the
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same amount with regard to dollar, at least it was, at the end of last year, because those numbers represent germany's budget surplus for 2014. 2013 surplus was and experts in this balance sheet assessment say they will be in surplus at least out until 2018 which leads to my hint, dude, where's my bund? they talk about they're being to be buying all these bunds, i don't know, well let me think, how do screw up the bond market delivery at the cme. not issuing bonds for five years and it came back to haunt us. there aren't bunds out there. there's negative issuance in the many developed economies based on the purchases. so this is the perfect, the opportune time, to put the needed reserves on the fed's balance sheet and let some out, let a half trillion out, the market needs it, europe gives you ground cover and you get to do a normalization, maybe everybody can live with.
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back to you, kayla. >> all right. rick santelli in chicago, rick, thanks. up next, stocks continuing a volatile week. the dow down 256 points, all major averages near session lows as the dollar index hits a 52-week high. art cashin will join us next with his thoughts when we come back. ♪ at mfs, we believe in the power of active management. every day, our teams collaborate around the world, to actively uncover, discuss and debate investment opportunities. which leads to better decisions for our clients. it's a uniquely collaborative approach you won't find anywhere else. put our global active management expertise to work for you. mfs. there is no expertise without collaboration.
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plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit to learn more. dow down 255 this morning. see all the components are in the red. bring in art cashin, director of floor operations at ubs. good morning. >> good morning.
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>> so much for the 70% upward bias on friday the 13th. >> as i wrote in my comments today would be a loser looking at the currency area so we're getting close to some key support levels here. s&p 2038.41 is important. they should try to hold on to that. of course we look like we are under pressure to take out the $45 level in wti, so that can be critical too. for two days now the market has had some general geopolitical nervousness. recall that in the final hour yesterday, there were all these whacky rumors about not where's waldo but where's putin. nobody had seen him since the 5th. he was supposed to be canceling appointments. we've gotten over that, but even today, there are rumors and contentions around that be wary of the weak end, there may be a
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major geopolitical announcement coming up. vague rumors, nothing you can hang your hat on. >> the dow is down more than the other indices and ibm is by far down the most among the stocks. should we read that as being currency related because so much of ibm's business is outside the u.s. >> absolutely. you know, it's the multinationals and ibm's out there as a star in that field so yeah, no, i think that's there. also, the concerns arising out of intel and, you know, where is the technology world going, is it finally slowing down, so that adds in with the international trade too. >> apple will join the dow next week, i believe. what effect could have that on the market as we watch volatility which looks like it's not ending any time soon? >> you know, given apple's price, it will have a larger than normal influence in the dow, so all i can guarantee is, volatility in all likelihood will increase because we all
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have higher priced stocks outweighing lower priced stocks and things will move around fast. >> mean time, the euro goldman today, 80 cents by the end of 2017. that would suggest we're in the middle of this narrative, nowhere near the end. >> yeah. no, it has all that likelihood and people were piling in, shorting the euro, interrupted yesterday by a quick short squeeze, but you have to be careful as i noted yesterday, the rise in the dollar had turned parabolic and doing this for 50 years, it is very rare when something begins to go straight up like a rocket that it can continue to do that. so we might begin to see a change in here somewhere. >> well, the ice cubes are -- they got some -- >> the ice cubes don't have a chance this weekend and we have to warm up for st. patrick's day anyway. dress rehearsal over the weekend. see you next week, when we come
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back our eye on the market down session lows near 243. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses.
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stocks, s&p 500 around 1.5, 2% being led to the downside by names like entergy, am mer ren and exellen, interests largely unchanged, attention will point towards next week's fed rate policy announcement. utilities have been trending lower since the end of january due in part to speculation about rising interest rates later on this year, jon, back over to you. >> all right. quite a dimmer switch on those. thanks. in case you were thinking about missing it this saturday, tomorrow known as pie day and that's not about your appetite because of the date of 3.14.15 same as the first digits of pi. it will be es special a9:26:53. the students hoping to set the longest record for the representation of pi. holding the next number in the series. it's also the second friday the
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13th of 2015, we'll get one more in november. the next time you'll get three in a year, 2026. >> i hope there is extra credit involved for those students out there. >> you are thinking about the extra credit. that's good. you were a good student, i know it. >> i was. >> if anyone else wants to volunteer they can always grab a number and get in line, right? >> absolutely. >> where is the limit? >> there is no limit, carl. there is no limit. >> meantime there apiece to be no limit to the selling today, obviously dow down 231, not quite wiping out yesterday's gains, if you recall, yesterday's gain of nearly 260 was actually wiped out for a moment as we were down 265 but slightly off of that. carbon drshin' drew your attent currency and geopolitics and oil, as we look at 80-year highs in stock piles. >> dollar above the lows so far this year for a lot of traders who thought we had a bounce a few weeks ago. appeared to be short lived.
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>> next week key note by nadella on monday will set us up for a fed meeting. >> interesting because our eyes are on stocks and like microsoft, and all the market volatility, see if he says anything to set them up for a better second half of the year. >> happy pi day tomorrow. >> see you at 9:00 whatever time in the morning. wapner has a big show coming up too. back to headquarters and the "half "half." all right. guys, thanks so much. welcome to the halftime show. stevphen weiss the manage egg partner of short hills capital, jim lebenthal, president of -- josh brown is the ceo of ritholtz wealth management. >> close enough. >> close. >> and kenny is from the floor of the new york stock exchange today and keith kelly is managing director at tradition energy. our game plan looks like this. fighting back. the founder and chairman of embattled lumber liquidators is with us live today. can the company save its


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