tv Squawk Box CNBC August 3, 2015 6:00am-9:01am EDT
>> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps this is "squawk box." good morning, welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are first in business in the entire universe. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera, along with joe kernin and scott walker. becky and andrew are off today. american pharoah raced against on sunday. the 3-year-old could be returning to the haskell estates in new jersey. earning another $1.5 million. that brings his career winnings for $5.5 million. 65,000 fans were there including new jersey governor chris christie. turning -- are we supposed to wait until after he crosses -- >> he did. we won, trust me. >> personal income and spending numbers are out today,
wednesday -- on wednesday, the employment report for july will come out with international trade. on thursday, we'll get jobless claims. and that all leads to friday's big jobs report. see what they're suggesting about the open at this hour. the dow flat course the board. disney, dreamworks, time warner, fox, all on the calendar. stiefel is raising its price target. and seeing the stock getting to $130 a share. also has a value rating on those shares. disney up 40% over the past year. >> harder and harder to come up with something new, isn't it? >> and "mission: impossible"" big opening.
56 million. >> i saw it i saw it on wall street. i liked it. tim, tim hanging on the side of the airplane which is pretty cool. >> i think with the people involved with insuring tom cruise, it's like -- at times. with tim on the motorcycle which is going 130. "mission: impossible" did you used to watch it? >> the original tv show. >> it was pretty cool what they had had to do. alec baldwin was a bad guy to start, ahead of the cia, and then he turns into -- he had this little imf -- a different imf. >> with christine lagarde. >> can you imagine with domenic
strasbourg. >> you get a franchise going, and like with "jurassic world," it's hard to come up with thing. >> you need the creative genius. the richal "star wars," remember the bar scene? wow. you need somebody behind those scenes. >> see i was in college, and was not -- i remember seeing that from the video game but i wasn't -- >> you didn't see it? >> i wasn't big on that. anyway, as long as the new installments of these franchises are still good which -- >> sometimes, they're not. >> -- sometimes they're not but lately, they've been pretty good. >> we do need to talk about chinese factory statistics. but i just want to say you know that -- >> we do? >> we do. >> they tell me we do. you know that "walking dead," this is interesting, too. you do a prequel and you read
the "walking dead" that happened when the play just started. a big piece in "the new york times" because that's starting i think on the 23rd or so. >> the prequel? >> the prequel, yeah. which is set in a gritty l.a. where life is getting a little more chaotic. where you're just starting to see people turn into -- are you a "walking" fan? >> not really. >> 29 million were. >> there's a lot of people in this country who don't. >> it's a phenomenon. more people watch -- there are more people watching the show talking about that show than watching -- >> and joe appeared on that show talking about that show. >> i'd like to be on it again. hint. >> you would never do that. >> people at home are going when are we going to hear about china? the latest reading on china factory activity they have
their own pmi over there. for a fifth straight month, it's now at its lowest reading since november of 2011. there are things happening in china. obviously, i saw earlier today, there's the chinese markets. it's not good for shanghai down another 40. >> that's a calm day. >> that is a calm day. >> down 1% 2%. >> you keep using 1% and sooner or later -- >> 1% an hour. >> oil, at 46. you look at commodities, you look at what's. happening, it's got to have something to do with china. got to have something to do with china. 46. where is that -- at 46 you're guaranteeding 70% bit end of the year. >> who's saying that? >> everybody. the vast majority. >> so many people other oil
analysts are talking about, oh, yeah, by the end of the year it will probably be back to 70. >> on another note did you see what is. happening in venezuela over the weekend. because they need money so badly, the government it is horrific, the video that's being leaked out of there. people, i mean riots for food. oh, it's just so sad to watch. >> at least it's not a flush place. people pawning some of their rolex rolexes. they have 12 or 13. >> all up and down their arm. >> more rolexes than wives. the greek stock market is now open for business after a five-week closure, greek stocks began trading again. the index quickly fell 23% led by a sharp decline in banking stocks alpha bank the national bank of greece all taking a 30% hit. you can actively trade. it's easier if you're a foreigner. if you're a local, you can't
move money across the border so you're limited in your ability. it could have been even worse. there could have been more liquidity allowed. meantime president obama expected to unveil new rules for carbon emissions. the white house's clear power plan will increase the required cuts from emissions in the power sector establishing the first ever national standards to lilt carbon pollution from power plants. the plan is looking to reduce emissions from 32% to 2005 levels by 2030. it will set up a battle with the coal industry. the national monument association saying it will seek to belong the plan in federal court. >> all right -- >> we're just moving on? because when i read that story over the weekend, the first thing that came in my head was joe. >> i know. >> literally. i saw something this morning, and it's a scattered ram of the cost of unit of power around the world. up here you've got, it goes like
this denmark, germany, because it's so expensive. and because of the focus on it. and we're down here. and it says the president will probably now finally get his wish and get us up here. >> selling one of our most competitive positions in the world. >> carbon emissions is an oxymoron. everything that we know is carbon-based. they don't say co2 which is one of the most ubiquitous elements or compounds on the planet. it's essential to plant life and photo synthesis. we're talking .04 emissions. so i guess they didn't dictate this is a pollutant. it's a new definition for pollutant, right? if you're going to call carbon
dioxide -- >> there there are a number of states lining. you. >> and it will be a different president some day. 32% is going to be very very expensive. it's going to cost a lot of jobs. and the benefits are that if you believe we're going to have a 3.6 increase based on co2 level where is we are, we haven't seen really any evidence that that's going to happen. but if you believe it all of these guys if we ever -- you know, come back on some of the dogma and pull back on it they're all going to be able to say, hey i was just listening to scientists. if you're obama and you listen to scientists, this is something that you'd do. >> i guess. it's so much for our purposes investing in coal stock at this point, right? already beaten down pretty well. >> isn't that going to be -- it's a coal company that -- >> the bankruptcy -- yeah this government has picked winners and losers and they have
decided that coal is the loser. >> you know the reason they call it it carbon in co2, co2 is an odorless colorless gas. carbon sounds like a ship doesn't it you have visions of this. they show this they show city factories. >> that's mainstream media. >> i don't want to get into any of this. listen, i don't argue with it not anymore. no i do not argue. i don't argue with it. if you won't search a climate policy if you don't want to be part of it -- >> are you talking about the guy -- >> i'm talking about tom cruise even he's leaving the church. >> you pointed to records. >> you totally baited me on this. i didn't want to talk about this. you totally baited me. >> i didn't -- i'm trying to move on. >> i know i swear, though i did read the story. i saw the headline. the first thing that popped in
my mind was you. >> let me know when you see the slightest crack in miami real estate or new york real estate. >> anything on the coast? >> anything that actually shows market pressure on any of those prices that indicates that there is a coming tidal waves that going bury that. let me know. the futures are still flat the s&p would be open by 2, the dow owns will open by 2. nasdaq, 2. the german dax and others. we'll show you what happened in asia overnight. japan was flat. hang seng down nearly 1%. shanghai down 1%. ten-year yield, 2.198. still wait for the rising interest rates. the euro costs 1.09.
as for the price of gold this morning, it is lower again, by -- oh look to the right of that chart. >> gold's gotten smoked. >> hammered. hammered. >> oh yeah commodities just getting pummeled. joe. as we mentioned a big week of data and earnings on top as wall street gets set to kick off a new month of trading. should investors get ready for a quiet august or a volatile one. head of investment strategies at pro strategies. do et cetera 00 of you have one determining is it st. the fed? is it continued earnings? is it china? what is it? >> certainly from an interest rate perspective it will be the fed and the jobs report on friday. >> that's interesting but what
about for the stock market? >> i would strongly disagree with that just because waiting for the fed and the bond market is a risky thing to do. we've had a routing of the bond market in q2 and interest rates actually receded a bit. typically, when the fed raises rates sometimes the back end comes down. i don't know if that will happen this time. >> what do you mean we had a rout in the bond market? >> we had interest rate goes up 75 basis points on the ten-year. as expectations for the fed's raising of interest rates, fed futures came down. >> where did we see 75 basis points? >> on ten-year in q2. we had rates go up. >> a tantrum? >> no the exemption is normal interesting -- >> 2 -- >> 2.20. we were at 2.45 or so at the highest levels of q2. my observation is simply that if
you wait for the fed to raise rates you can lose money in a bond market. >> if that's a rout -- >> rout in a latest sort of range-bond moves not a -- >> well i mean we're stitt waiting for -- that just says you're kidding we're till at 2.19. i don't think of that as backing up quickly. we were supposed to be at 3% three years. >> if you wait for the fed, if you wait for the fed, you could lose 5% or 10% in your bond portfolio if we're willing to call that a rout these days. >> what's affecting the stock market? >> the biggest risk in the stock market is at a sector basis. the sector is at a risk obviously, energy and sectors like utilities. the rest of the stock market is probably going to do okay. >> unless you think that the fed is not going to raise rates anytime soon and that utilities, as rates stay low are going to be a winner.
right? i mean utilities -- if rate stay lower utilities and other sectors like that are going to go up. >> i think it goes back to the same logic. you know the natural rate of the ten-year bond is somewhere around 4%. 2% inflation, plus 2% real return. and consensus expectations for next year are for 2% inflation. so simply that sort of normalization puts pressure on things like rates and utilities. again, even without the fed starting to move. >> all right. then we're stuck micro analyzing? >> for the next two months it will be the jobs report. >> this is just get it out of the way so we stop talking about. >> i don't think the bar is all that high for her to raise it. is sounds like september is still out in play despite the softer than expected eci we got on friday.
i don't think that's necessarily a prerequisite for them to begin to hike rates. it would certainly support the idea if we got a stronger report on friday. of course, we didn't. right now, it's a game of data dependentent. dependent. >> what are you guys at halftime saying about september? >> i think they're going to push for -- >> no no that's not what they're saying. i don't want them to say it. >> look at jeffrey dunlap he's very well respected in the market. he says they're not going to raise, nor does he think they should. >> i know. >> he uses the same laws analogy, and he said they should be cutting rates. >> there are other people saying at 5.3%.
we've got all the indications -- we're still in crisis mode qe crisis mode the economy is way behind. i don't know who is right on that. do you go on that? >> i don't know. stan's made a lot of money, too. >> he's given away more than dunlap's made right? >> yeah. >> don't you think? >> are we ready to go? is that you? >> i'm sorry, that's rob cantino, he's never here at this time. >> august not good. down 2.5%. same drill this time around? >> i don't think we're going to have huge amounts of flows. so i don't think there's going to be a lot of news flow. >> it could be china flow right? that seems to be one of the
biggest drivers right now. >> but i think in the short term -- and we've had slightly bearish flows in tellers of folks taking bets against the markets. and actually a little bullish in commodities. i think in the short term no reason to take a bid on emerging markets right now. one, credit spreads boast investment rate and high yields much higher than last year. a little bit of an opportunity. and european stocks. folks who say there's a 20% or 30% valuation account. the price to book is 40% to 50% off the u.s. level of so may be a little time to step in. >> just for the number on friday -- you're an economist? >> yes. like 2.05 on payrolls. and another decline, 5.2%. i think that's consistent with the idea of some further progress in the labor market that the fed is looking to keep september in play.
>> all right. so we go over 200 again. but we've had a strange over 200. we're also talking about it, we've got to go. all right. kevin, thank you. thank you. okay china freezing a trading of the hedge fund giant citadel. younis eun has more of this developing story. eunice. >> citadel has confirmed that you it's trading by the regulators into what it calls suspected trading irregularities. citadel account is one of more than 30 that have been restraighted. and citadel is though the only foreign financial situation that's been caught up in this probe. so far citadel, as well as the regulator have refrained from saying what the actual issue
issue is that caused a suspension. the backdrop of course is that the government here has been pushing ahead with a very aggressive campaign to rye to root out what it calls illegal short-sellers or those who have been betting against the market. this is of course since the market has been following since mid-june. i spoke to a citadel pr person who was quick to point out that the trading account is one of many that they have here. he said that the others are operating just normally. he also said this san account at the brokerage firm and not at the hedge fund and it is not client money. he also was quick to point out that the company is working very closely with the regulators and that they're very optimistic that it's going to end up in their favor. so at this stage, though we don't know how this is all going to play out. but a lot of foreign investors that i've been talking to say it's going to have to be worked not a very delicate manner.
and the reason for that there have been so many foreign investors that have pulled the money out of the market. many of them have been put off by the heavy-handed way that the market has handled the slide. there's concern that the way the citadel case is handled could actually further dent china's standing in the snashgtinternational markets. >> absolutely eunice. thank you. leader of the pack donald trump topping the polls and will be front and center on a thursday debate. but another candidate may barely make the prime time stage. new jersey governor christie talking to john harwick next on "squawk box." here's a look back at this date in history.
we're watching shares of retailers of sears this morning. the company expects its first profit in three years for the second quarter largely from the sale of real estate. sears also says its financial position has improved although its most recent sales numbers continue to show decline. >> the latest nbc/"wall street
journal" report has trump sumping in the polls. trump has a 19% followed by scott walker and florida governor jeb bush. they will be sharing the stage with seven other candidates on thursday's debate including new jersey's governor chris christie and john harwood recently sat down with the governor and joins us from washington. i'm trying to think about all the stuff that you talk about, john, we'll let you get to christie in a second. i liked your answer to the buy that said maybe trump's followers end up with bernie sanders. what are the chances of that? you said zero. that person fundamentally doesn't understand the dynamic of this race. disenfranchised and disillusioned and anti-political fast will would way understand the trump followers versus bernie sanders. that's just the stupidest thing i've heard, right? >> well we'll see how that
happen. >> but trump's not a socialist. these are part of the political press that has no clue as to what's causing some of these things to happen i think, john. >> well that may be. but the story of the day is chris christie who i sat down in key new hampshire. this is not the way that chris christie thought he was going to be in this race. he once was seen as a potential front-runner. now he's in back of the pack. he said he's confident. going to make that first debate looking for slow steady progress. >> new jersey is three arts in a cloud of dust. new jersey has grinded it out every day in diners like this. >> so you know that this diner was manufactured in new jersey? >> yes, i just heard it from the owner. >> well i just looked on that table juke box over there. there's not one single springsteen song in that jux jukebox. >> well, that is an out rage. >> what is going on with your party right now?
it's a weird party right now? >> it is. are you telling me it wasn't as weird when michele bachmann was winning nationally. this happens. >> are you going to be in the first debate. >> yes, sir. >> not worried about falling off the cutoff? >> not worried at all. >> how do you see the race as being the most specific guy in the race? >> donald's telling his version of the truth. >> only the loudest voice gets heard or the most outrageous voice gets heard. >> that's probably the fault of candidate saying those things. that's partly the fault of the media. some people are feeling the pressure to try to get on the news. that's why idea is the most important thing in this john not whether you're getting attention at one particular time. in terms of when the race is the race became different when jeb bush got into it. a son and brother of two former presidents gets into a race well he becomes a establishment front-runner immediately. so it say different race that i
may have envisioned a while ago when he wasn't in the race. >> new jersey is not happy with you. you're just playing a weak hand as a governor. >> you know i've governed in a deeply blue state vetoed tax increases. cut the budget $2.5 million than it was. >> haven't you had slower job growth than other states? >> of course, we have because we have higher taxes than anybody else. the certain things you can do and can't do because you're not a dictator. >> for 30 years wages have not gone up. hillary clinton says change capital gain taxes to push investment to the future. is he right? >> no she's wrong. what she's doing is just to mask a tax increase. mrs. clinton does not know what she's talking about. proposaling to create jobs paid sick leave and raise the minimum wage. raising the minimum wage doesn't move anybody in the middle
class. >> are you against raising the minimum wage? >> i'm against the $15 minimum wage. >> are you against 10. >> we'd have to talk about it. but 15? it's going to destroy jobs. when you look at the changes we've made in in which and 192,000 families that had jobs and don't have them i don't think that's significant. >> you're not running on a new jersey miracle? >> no there's no miracles. new jersey is three yards and a cloud of dust. miracles are from god, john. it's progress on behalf of the people i work for. >> governor thanks for being with us. >> thanks john. as for those specific ideas, chris christie has talked about raising the retirement age, eliminating social security benefits for people retirees who have more than $200,000 of annual income. and on tax reform cutting the top rate to 28%. that was the reagan rate after tax reform in 1996. to do that it's going to get
rid of tons of deductions including deductions for state income tax which is something much valued in the state of new jersey guys. >> if you talk to him long enough john i see how skilled he is. i think you might end up being a christie supporter if you were to have dessert at breakfast you might end up -- >> he's very very skilled. the individual conversation the town meeting i was at before very very good. >> amazing. and also give him some credit when he decides to say something really controversial, it's about teachers unions. >> uh-huh. >> and it's in the journal today, the journal responded to what he said. now, that's a way of just being really plain spoken. you're going to get a lot of flak from certain special interests about saying that. but it's not going to rub an entire group of people -- except the teachers union.
i think a lot of teachers themselves have a problem with the way they're represented by the teachers union. which has been the biggest hindrance. i think jake tapper asked him who do we need to slap around -- >> punch in the face. >> -- punch in the face. >> yeah who do we need to punch in the face as if the bureaucrats are holding back on something that would help our education, that we know is holding back. it was such a great answer. you didn't talk about biden. see, i don't know if people want to talk about the idea that it's not sort of ordained that hillary clinton is the candidate. >> i don't think it's likely that joe biden is going to get in the race. this is a process of due diligence that his staff is going through, preserving his options if he wants to take them. i don't expect that to happen. >> i would be urging him if i was a democrat. don't you think -- >> some democrats are. >> do you think things are going to start getting better with e-mails and benghazi or anything
else, her political skills on the stump? at this point, just being a woman, where democrats want to elect a woman, maybe that's not enough some day. maybe you're going to have to -- i don't know that could get old. >> well it's not just being a woman. she is a very experienced public official who's got a pretty good brand. the clinton brand is pretty powerful in american politics. she is a mainstream democrat. i think there's no question if you look at the polling today, that she is somebody who's going to be a very competitive general election candidate. yes, she has flaws. republicans are picking at them. democrats are anxious about them, those flaws. but i don't see anything that's likely to displace her now. >> hey john -- >> bernie sanders or martin o'malley. >> did you see the camille stuff on hillary clinton. 50 negative rating. why would we want to elect
someone who is so divisive again, another four eight years of somebody who already at 50% has a very negative opinion of? why go that way? >> well look in the political system that we now, any recognized leader of a political party is going to be divisive. you don't stay -- there was a time where people said barack obama was a rise above kind of candidate who was not disliked by republicans. how long did that last? it is in the nature of partisan politics that you're going to repel a large chunk of the country. she does that already, because she's already well-known. her husband does that when he was president, even though he was broadly popular for most of his presidency. and, so i don't see that as necessarily dispositive. >> i can't believe that pigs are going to fly -- i've seen it. >> it came out of your mouth.
>> she says a lot of interesting things. >> thanks john. >> you didn't read it? >> no just the headline. >> you should. and she says some other stuff there but she's not afraid to just -- >> just do it. >> yeah. coming up -- a recall from kraft, plus an update on the greek stock market that just reopened after a five-week closure. and as we head to break, a look at last week's winners and losers. you're watching cnbc business worldwide.
welcome back. u.s. equity futures at this hour. as you can see, flat across the board. greek stock market though has reopened for the first time in five weeks. right now, down only 17%. had been down as much as 20%. there's still restricted trading if you're local. if you're national buyer or seller, you can move money across the border. >> a rolling bull market. 17% after being close to that line. >> rememberer the locals can't do as much as they would like. if you had full-on liquidity, i think it would be low. >> if you had exited and devalued would be 70%. >> oh for sure. >> 17% versus 70. we're not updating every -- >> that's true. >> there's still stuff going on aren't they arguing? >> they're having meetings about
it. >> they're in the same place. >> we'll see. >> all right. >> i'm not confident. they're in a different place now. >> the suitcase is in the green room. i saw it. >> come on. >> today? >> no you have to bring your physical notes, you have to take your physical notes. >> it's like a massive of suitcase for the notes. >> kraft voluntarily ruling 37,000 cases of kraft singles. a possible choking hazard. not from the cheese itself but from the wrapping of the individual slices. the company says part of the wrapper could remain attached to the slice after it's removed. the recall involves certain three and four-pound packages of kraft singles, white and yellow american pasteurized cheese. you're intentionally going to take one of these slices and not fully unwrap it like grilled cheese -- >> i think you notice it's still
stuck on. >> don't you notice it when you're -- >> eating it right. >> that was too much. >> they do make them where the individual thing, you just peel them off. there's no paper or anything in between. >> i like the paper. coming up new data showing more sluggishness in chinese manufacturing so should investors expect it to get worse before it gets better? "squawk box" returns in just a moment.
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chase. great to have you here. the commodities markets are signaling there's a big slowdown in china. how bad is it? >> indeed. you know we have had a slowdown in china's economy in the last several quarters. today's data actually point to more disappointment especially in the manufacturing sector which is now affecting commodities and other industrial sectors. as we know in the last several quarters the slowdown in china's economy has been really seeing variable opposites in the manufacturing industry. because in the manufacturing sector they have a lot of companies that are heavily in debt. they have a lot of people and they also have inefficiency. so therefore, with the slowdown in the economy, we're seeing really a magnified impact on those companies that are overly leveraged. so today's pmi number actually quite disappointing. couple that with the financial sector we notice that market is
down again 10% in the last week. so there are some concerns clearly about the overall health of the economy. however, i think we are going to have more stimulus coming from the central government in the coming weeks and comes month. >> yeah that's the chinese way, right? to always rely on some kind of government enter next.intervention. when i look at what they've done with the stock market in the last month, as an outside investor, i wonder why i'd put money there. the rules change. they decided that something that used to be okay isn't okay anymore. from the outside it looks incredibly confusing and unpredictable. >> well, the chinese market has been a very young market. it's only been 25 years so it is an immature emerging market. it's also policy-driven. we all know that china's central government didn't weigh quite heavily during the selloff between june 12th and basically to today. i think once the month
stabilizes the policy from the central government will be a bit muted. we have had a visible hand in the central government in the stock market. they're supporting the market because they want to stabilize consumer sentiment, as well as investor sentiment. sometime, i hope in the second half of the year once the market performers stabilize, maybe the central government will be much more hands off. >> jing a quick question when you talk about stimulus that you expect, people that i've been speaking to are hopeful that the pboc is going to cut interest rates. is that the kind of move you see coming? >> clearly, we will have more in the form of rate cuts and reduction in the payment ratio, but just said there's announcement in the fiscal scene as well.
especially the very antiquated piping system underground. as we know, china spends a lot of instructure aboveground. airports and high-speed rail et cetera. now, they say we're going to rebuild china's underground parking system. so there will be more money coming. this is just one small example. we will have clearly more rate cuts. more reduction for the banks. therefore, more liquidity will go into the economy but also more fiscal spending. the central government has a lot of fire power behind it. and they're also trying to reduce local government debt so that local government can actually spend the infrastructure. >> is it going to be work, are you adjusting your gdp in china -- we know there's confusion on whether the numbers they give us are actually correct or not or are you raising your expectations based
on that? >> we're not adjusting our gdp just jet. we're looking for 7% growth. investors should look beyond that 7% headline. even though the economy has been slowing there is still investment opportunities. for the growth in e commerce logistics, in the internet sector these are unaffected in the slowdown. but in the old economy sectors where you have a lot of leverage a lot of inefficiency they're not going to do very well. i think it's time they look beyond just the gdp number. they need to look at where the growth is coming from and where the weakness is. they need to go for the growth and avoid the weak. >> thank you, jing. great to have you on from hong kong. and gaining revenue there fell 34.5% from a year ago.
about the only bright spot in that figure is that it's a slower decline than the 36% drop in some reports in maacau there. time to start thinking about school. retailers, and she said she couldn't wait for school to start? >> i loved it. >> it's so different. >> a three-ring binder. ♪ >> the consumer may not be making the grade this time around retail. and jessica alba's honest company is coming under fire. those stories will be coming up. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
34 seconds, boom see you later. good night. onto the next one. >> girls fighting. >> i like mixed martial arts. i don't care if it's girls or guy. >> no comment? >> it's because are you afraid to comment? >> it's a family show. >> tongue tied? >> it's you today. so i won't say. there is a lot of things you do in 34 seconds. if he was not here hide say it's a new record. >> for him. >> that's why, i don't have anything for u. >> i will tell you my wife wanted to school now. >> when she was little she liked -- >> she was listening in the
e-mail e-mail. >> she knew what outfit they were wearing. it's different. >> the moment of stocks among the stocks in the news it's only taken you. >> you are smart. >> quick witted. >> do you think, i don't think i can last 34 seconds, that ultimate fighter, do you? >> number one, it wouldn't take much to run out of the ring. i'd be out of the ring much quicker. wouldn't you? >> one kick to my solar plex us. i saw it was going around youtube several months ago. she did a piece with a reporter a male reporter what would it be to get in the ring with rhonda roussy? take a move boom he breaks his rib. >> right. >> when's the last time you have
a fight? >> the last couple weeks. at&t will bundle direct services now it's completed its deal to buy that satellite tv. stop reading the paper and read this tease. >> coming up. >> give it some what it deserves. >> delivery. coming up, another huge week for the economy, starting with the count down to the jobs report. when it meets the september. earning season changes the channel. it's all about the biggest names in media. one analyst will tell us about a "squawk" not to watch. "squawk" returns in just a moment. you are watching cnbc. we are first in business world wide. your dad just kissed my mom. turning two worlds into one takes love. helping protect that world takes state farm.
. a blood bath, the athens exchange opening the first time to a devastating sell-off t. details straight ahead. stocks if china also under pressure. the indicator hit its lowest level in three years. viewers may remember when andrew got a food rub on live tv ♪ i know what i want ♪ >> more on the company's struggle as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ got to cut loose ♪ ♪ foot loose ♪ >> live from the beating heart of new york city this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with michelle caruso cabrera. it's a big week for economic
data i'm grad it comes once a month. the employment report. the jobless claims and the gig big number on friday we also have international trade and personal physical and spending. we have that going. when it's don't call it flat. when it's up i call it positive, which it is. >> now it's the high of the morning. >> it is. people are just in a good mood. >> ten points. >> that read you did going into the break. >> i call it my spanish voice. >> mr. president. >> among our top stories. >> there you go. go ahead. take it away. >> don't do that. >> no, why would i do that? >> among our top stories, they're literally yelling for me
to read. among the stop stories, the greek market opened. it wasn't pretty. the index fell 23%. led by a sharp decline. alpha bank attica. the latest reading on chinese activity dropped for the fifth straight month. the purchasing index is at its lowest level. the shanghai fell more than 1% overnight. president obama expected to release few rules. it will increase emissions in the power sector. the goal is to reduce emissions by 32% from 2005 levels by 2030. the national mining association says it will seek to block the
plan in federal court. michelle. >> the big jobs report and a possible september rate hike is on. steve liesman joins us now with more. >> michelle this friday's jobs report, important for investors, also just the first step in a series of reports closely watched to gauge. whether the fed hikes in september. here's what we are looking for on friday. 2:15 unemployment rate. average hourly wages seen going up a healthy 0.3% t. pay rolls they are talking about. if it comes in at 2:15. the jobs report is one piece of the puzzle for september. the rate hike. here is a road to the hike.
the pcp index the feds indicator. there is the jobs report on friday. very quickly, here's the gain that we ask our fed movers, they come in 44% say it needs to be in the coup in the 225 area for the feds to have an initial hike. >> where are you? >> i'm at 100% if september. >> 100%. >> where are you? >> i'd say 75. the data has to go the right way. >> all in good shape for a rate hike? >> you think that's it? >> oh no i think that they're letting us know. it's the countdown to do it. do it.
>> you do need the data. you into ed to cooperate. >> data schmata. it gets revised. a month later, we were wrong. just do it. it's somewhere around 5:00. >> we'll talk to a very smart man. >> you will flip out, aren't you? >> september. >> 100%. >> who is he joe? >> where is he from? >> jp morgan. >> where is he from? >> chief exist. >> 70%? >> 55. >> 55? >> you know if we had a more you know consistent way last week, and we get the payroll numbers this week i'd be feeling very confident. now i think we have a fed which we hope at the end of this week is going to be feeling growth labor market tightening is going. they will still have questions about it.
>> eci. >> or greece. >> i told you to watch that. >> it's always something. >> it's life. you made the point, it's never going to be perfect. an airplane. >> you can use that. >> to pe browse the bias is the fed wants to go. it changes the litmus pack for what the data have to say. is that your take? >> time matters, the economy continues to deliver and labor market tightening. that puts some if in the market improvement. i think they're signaling to us they want to go this year. >> we need the current in iso. share the pain. >> the quarter point after nine
years. >> i want to go back to my three litmus test. jobs have to be improving. also the third one. no, that's the third one. the third one to me is they want to gauge whether the economy is capable of taking formalized rates. they're fought just gauging the quarter. >> it's the quarter points. >> they're gauging the trajectory. >> it's signaling to us. it has been consistent in the past that they're on a path to engagement i think that's the important point. when are they willing to make that judgment the time is right, to start a path with adjustment. which over a couple years is 100 basis point. >> what are they saying? >> i think the ten year yield is saying there is a lot of concern out there what's happening globally. that's where we are right now. there is an added element about a dollar rise the weakness in industry across the world.
questions about china. >> is ittaling the fed doesn't raise or if they do it's too soon and you start to get a flattening in the curve. >> i think the shortened there it's more likely in their mind it's december rather than december. the path will be flatter and the fed is trying to tell us they themselves, think it will be gradual. the market is really looking for a very little from the fed over the course of the next year year-and-a-half. >> is the time really right or because they've waited so long? >> it's right. the unemployment rate has been moving. if you look at how fast the unemployment rate has been moving over the last few years, it's moving more rapidly than any point when they got the first tightening. at the same time, though, gdp has been impressive. >> that's your point. stip everything out. the fact thatitative waited. view it in the prism soft economy as it sits today. if you were to look at that as the economists sitting in the seat that you do is the economy
in its current state strong enough to raise rates? yes. >> for getting everything out of the pack? >> our judgment is yes. >> they change the appointment the way we calculate it. >> it seems like something is wrong. i mean it's a given. >> at under 6%. it's a given you can at least have a quarter point, don't you think? >> how can you be questioning the underlying economy? >> i'm not questioning. i'm raising the question of. >> we know at this point. >> can't you drill down and say look that these pockets. it's a bad unemployment level. >> i don't think that's real. >> the fed hike. we can potentially be hiking on the grass and all. with i is they would fought be hiking because of existing
inflationary concerns. they would be hiking to stave off potential inflationary concerns. it will be a modest hike to say, we have insurance trends. >> the fed has always tightened in the past the first tightening with strong demand. today we have tightening labor mark. we don't have strong demand. >> it's seven and a quarter when you feed all that stuff. isn't there, i mean it's some? >> i agree with you. it's an offset to that. the bottom line is if you are thinking about it as a 25 basis points, the fed is thinking about when do we begin a path? it signals to the market that there is going to be a fairly decent amount of rate moves. >> how can you lower the
monetary tool box? >> you don't want to create a slowdown. >> where do you want the quarter so much joe? >> i want to get off the dime. >> we will talk about every single show all day long. >> you would be the gauge of. that you have been pushing the festival. >> i think it's okay. what you have done. >> bachelor place versus a style. >> we have a style guide. we do. >> we have no style book. >> speak for yourself exactly. >> you know what will could use some style. >> i know. it's huge. you should go the full monty. >> give them a chance to get
there. >> you think it will happen. >> do it naturally the commish. do it. >> for everything. >> the band that's right. >> for everything. >> coming up. a big week for media stocks analyst rich greenfield weighs on reports from disney via come, boston and more. back-to-school shopping is on the way, the early numbers do not look good t. retailgy are you will join us on set. plus, pro golfer hunterermahan is here. the worst part is i heard you talk about hunter mahan. he is preparing for the barclays later this month.
interviews, and more. xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. it is a busy week for media stocks with disney time warner fox and via com all set to report. disney is up 40% year-to-date and over 250% for the last five years, it's not a stock to own according to our next guest. the fact that he's negative on
ultraditional media names. rich greenfield media and technology an lest at btig joins us now with more. it's good to see you in the house here. >> thank you, scott. >> what's the issue with disney? >> people are surprised to hear you say that. >> what we're seeing right now is advertising is really struggling. this is the first time ever the economy has been good in a long time. advertising overall is growing. tv advertising declining. which really is the life blood across this whole group is now in decline and really struggling as consumers move to other devices. >> what are you telling me you can only buy facebook and google? >> you can buy netflix, i think more and more people are watching content. so when you look at why netflix has exploded. that's a stock we have liked and continue to like. i think the lack of advertising
is becoming a bigger and bicker problem for traditional media. you think about your mobile device. the iphone is sitting between the two of you. there are no media companies. so despite the fact that mobile is beating the world every single day if terms of our time and attention, big media, nowhere in terms of mobile penetration in temps of the time spent. then think about the bundle. every day, you are meeting more and more people giving on the bundle. is it a huge number? no a vast majority of people in five years, where is that number going? it seems like we are dropping. >> when bob eiger was here the other day, he said it was inevitable. espn comes, you purchase it separately. will that be the pivotal moment. now can you monetize your viewers in a real way you can't now? >> i suspect bob eiger won't go to that company. >> i think it's scary.
disney would be the last company i would expect to really go over the top. there is so much at risk. think about six to $7 a month for disney's espn new yorker. forget about the other channels. >> disney gets paid $6 to $7 a month for viewers? >> i subscribe, you pay $6 to $7 a month. few are going direct to consumer. look, for hbo, which has always been allah carte it's been easier. they've never had the issue of the benefits of bundleing. hbo had to go direct. win your money. they still have to do that in over the top world. think about the bundle. espn's never competed directly for your dollars or tried to figure out how many people would actually subscribe just to espn.
bob eiger, does anyone on disney want to take that bet? our risk is i don't think unbundling is good for any of these companies? >> why would he mention it? >> maybe you are forced to at some point. >> people are increasingly giving up on the bundle. you look at showtime is going over the top now. hbo is now over the top. netflix is growing like a weed. remember netflix is not just trying to replace and beat hbo. netflix is adding content on discovery and one of the most popular shows was a documentary called chefs table. >> this is awesome. by the way. >> if you see, let's take that show. not expensive as you saw. >> highly produced. works all around the globe time and attention moving away from linear ad supported tv. i think what will be interesting. as we hear this plethora of
companies report how are they talk about it? if you are unilever which is just announcing they are become d.c. founding partner of the women's channel vice is launching online today. you think about how all of these brands are spending more and more dollars the ice buck challenge hasn't happened a year ago today. we are early in the shift to mobile video advertising. so between mobile video exploding and consumers moving away from add supportive dell le vision, this sector has a lot to answer to. >> quickly, they're talking about $2.2 billion "star wars"? >> "star wars" will be a monster. it's hard to get in front of the disney plate trains. we have been sitting on the
sideline. we have been a huge fan. >> a bowl of disney up until roughly six months ago. we look at fox, still a lot of sports. a lot of live global exposure. another way of playing fox at a cheaper valuation. it's a way to benefit from some of disney's tend everybody loves disney that's a part of the challenge. disney is exposed to the same challenges and the bundling sticking towing. >> lastly the one other report we keenly focused on this week is what? >> i think you should look at how cvk talks about the ad environment. they are so leveraged to traditional television advertising and to the bundle and the benefits of the bundle. i think it will be very interesting to see whether any of us continues to spike numbers. if you look at cbs chart, the numbers have continued to come
down. that's largely due to the fact advertising continues to under perform. i think it will be interesting to see how executives talk about and try to tell investor, it's not a problem. a lot of these companies are buying back tear stock, thinking the stock is keep. i know you think i have a come is buying back stocks for years now. is it the regular decision? should they actually be paying dividends? i think that's a fundamental question the whole sector has to deal with. is buying back your stock the right decision when the decision is changing as much as it is right now. >> i think you will wish you hasn't gotten out. i think hbo. i can't imagine and obviously i have enough money. i can't imagine. oh i don't pay for hbo. you have a tv you have cable. you don't pay for for it.
espn i even ask them. no espn. i can't imagine being in someone's house. i'll pay more than what i'm paying right now for it. i think all this content. i'm not going to sit on netflix watch "sons of anarchy." whatever. >> 30 million people watch hboa. 70 million channel. most people do not take hbo. two on your espn point, do you still watch sports all summer? >> they have golf tournaments on. >> i feed through tv for the final four. if i don't have it you can save lot of money and have a lot more
channels. >> you are one of those 200 million. >> i got an internet, a message in my e-mail for some wine rated 93 that was normally $36. the first time i've ever done anything on the internet where i made a move and spent money based on something i saw on the internet. >> it is crazy there is a super bowl size audience on facebook every day. they literally have over 20 million people every day. >> metadata will work. understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. 40% of the streetlights in detroit, at one point, did not work.
you had some blocks and you had major thoroughfares and corridors that were just totally pitch black. those things had to change. we wanted to restore our lighting system in the city. you can have the greatest dreams in the world, but unless you can finance those dreams, it doesn't happen. at the time that the bankruptcy filing was done, the public lighting authority had a hard time of finding a bank. citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. citi had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. it's a brighter day in detroit. people can see better when they're out doing their tasks, young people are moving back in town the kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. and folks are making investments and the community is moving forward. 40% of the lights were out, but they're not out for long.they're coming back.
>> sometimes you have to remove all emotion from the equation. what you have to do is use key metrics. still sets. okay. and cold hard facts. >> coming up the ceo who gave andrew ross sorkin on live tv stepping down. plus back to school season already under way. we will find out why the early forecast for retailers look weak.
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with exclusive behind the scenes footage all of taylor swift's music videos interviews, and more. xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. >> welcome back to "squawk box." in the headlines this morning the nation's auto maker set to unveil their july sales figures. ford, gm and fiat chrysler expected to post increase toyota is seeing a slight decline and audi and mer citizen will pass nokia's maps business for about $2.75 billion. the german auto makers want to use the technology to help
develop self driving vehicles. in an hour from now. the government is out with spending figures. they expect physical .2 of a percent in spending. >> ben kaufman, the ceo of new york start-up, he is stepping down. the country will continue to focus on a home automation business called wink. on twitter, kauffman clarified he won't be leading querky or wink. saying he left both companies. everyone is in good hands, he said. querky which crowd sources have recently scaled back officers and cut its work force, it led to a costly recall earlier this year. >> that scuttled attempts to sell that business and if you had been watching "squawk box," you might remember when ben kauffman said he'll do this for
any1. he gave andrew a foot rub. it was an effort to live up to the ad campaign that he would do that for people who came in with ideas. he would do it for just about anyone. >> what itself the effect there on the screen as we blur andrew out? >> i think we focus on that. see. >> someone the cops said were touching someone else's feet i think you need to look keeper. there is a whole subculture of people that sort of like. he could have started querky just to get people's feeds. >> if you have that fetish. >> whatever you do up to you. but i'm not sure of the true
motivation behind it. >> i hate when you show that video. skeevs me out. >> how about poor john mcenroe. >> he is selling foot fungus he won the french open. >> hey, john my mack. have you seen it? jublia. he does the yelling at the ref stuff. are you kidding me? foot fungus? >> that is amazing. >> you cannot be serious? >> back to school already in full swing. many people starting school in the next week or so? >> really? >> not fair. >> i don't think. >> starting in august. >> not fair. >> it's only one fair in life.
it's the state fair. >> a new study says parents expect to pend less. they revise down the sales forecast for the rest of the year. so what is the state of the american consumer? right now the ceo of jay rogers here to help answer that question, it's good to see you. >> i am shocked. i can't believe they are going back in the next week or so. why are people spending less if so, what are they spending it on in. >> it's so hard to have foot fungus. what's happening right now is there have been several studies that show the consumer can be down anywhere from 20% to up 4% for back-to-school. it's not like we have consistent data. last year, a study showed down 20. we were up 4.2. my own forecast for school is up three to four which would be slightly less than last year. there is a couple of reasons. tech this year is not important. there is no new iphone 6, no new computer. people are fought buying the apple watch.
tech will probably be down in back to school sales. if you bought all the exact same things to go back to him 62 you still pay 3% less. sales down 3%. you have to overcome. my guess is we will have a positive year. consumers are paying less. wages are going up for the first time forever. that consumer isn't that strong. it's better year over year. i think we will see them spend because generally that consumer will spend when they can spend. i think despite the fact tech will be low and apparel inflation is deflating not inflating. >> it speaks to the apparel
stock, some of the problems they've had as people sort of shift not only what they're buying but how they're buying it. >> that happens a lot. if you look at chinos pants that anybody would wear from 2000 to now the consumer is down 40% over a 14-year period. that trend has been going on and will continue to go on unless something changes. will see this 2, 3% deflation in the product. >> people are wearing more at leisure they say you buy a pair of under armor warm-up pants instead of the jeans or the khakis or whatever else. is that right? >> that is true. for this years ago devon imnim is actually back. jogger pants are selling, the bohemian stuff is in. we will see only pick up in the fashion.
it will not change the fact the best growth is is the nike type product. >> inflation can only go so far. at some point you suck all the keep manufacturing you can out of the world, no? >> that's easy for you to say. in the 21 years i was running retail. we saw 13 years of deflation and since 2000 to now we have seen deflation virtually every year since 2000 in apparel consumer type product him can it go on orever? >> no. at some point in time wage increase et cetera have to nick kick in. commodity prices haven't done anything. the replacement for things man made keeps the prices down we so far haven't seen a bottom. >> i think after school gap, old five. that company has had all sorts
of problems. >> those are on my list as far as people who could win for back-to-school. the problem there is they have to compete forever xxi, new hm. an over time there is a lot of pressure. old navy has done well because they've done it all on price and it does look better. it's a price driven thing. gap has had a hard time getting them to look like the old navy division price. unless therefore, they have a better fashion trend or sense, they can't win. will you see american eagle. aeropostale, that space is so crowded now and the pricing is so low, that deflation hits that sector hard. only american eagle has that chance in that space right now. >> what's the deal? we have earnings this week as
well. i think it's ralph, coach, kors indicate kate. >> i am a fan of kate. i think they are filling that space. they have been beaten up. if you look at ralph, that all starting to go away. so i'm now a fan of ralph. >> you say the genes, too. via plays into that denim is coming back. those guys will do well on the high end, your nordstroms sachs, tiffanys if are you if that space, it's better than in the $12 item space. >> because the buyers have a better portfolio? >> the negative has been no foreign tourists are coming shopping in new york now. that was a wrong ter, a slight
xaj rakes they are down year over year. >> you don't feel like the coach is on the comeback trail the same time kors is defining it a bit? >> every time you read a study the consumer says that about 80% rate, i didn't know they had something few. so until they convince the consumer that buys that product that something is new, it's worth going to see, they're going to have a struggle. the big struggle they got is figuring out what to do with the outlet business which is what i think destroyed it to start with. >> they were overexposed. >> they haven't fixed out to fix that yet. >> they're one of the retailers that had a separate proj product line. >> they're not one of the few. they're one of several. they do that too. ralph lauren does that. >> you got a discounts on the main product line. >> the off price was you will get a good deal. now, 80% of what you buy in the
this month. hunter mahan, the six-time winner on the tour. great to have you in studio. >> thank you. thank you. >> we spent sometime together in the pageant. anybody can. i don't think a psychologist psychiatrist. >> you know, there was a time when people said if it wasn't for that dog gone tiger woods, i'd be winning a lot of tournaments. it was a true five ten years ago. now who do you want me to name rickie jason, day, mentioned how great justin rose. >> doesn't get enough. >> jordan rory. it's crowded at the top. >> now there is at least. >> the state of golf is in
pretty good shape. up 30 or 40%. great numbers there. you are watching cnbc. >> phenomenal. obviously, golfers, women golfers playing are young, too lydia ko is 18-years-old she is winning majors. golfers are in a great place. a young place. >> inbee park does that thing i'm telling you about, she goes back i can't go up that slow. >> you are a lot older tan she s. you got to be you develop bad habits. you make up for lost time. there is time plenty of time left. >> how do you slow down? what causes people progressive? >> if you pease problem an tis
anticipation so patience is a virtue. >> transition at the top. let it. all the energy at the bottom. the last three or four feet. >> did you work on something else? tell me specifically. >> you are go to the range. good alignment. transition. tempo. >> aiming. >> if you can't aim poerply. >> do we have more problem than aiming? >> number one what difference does it matter? >> all right. we try to do that. >> it's very very frustrating. the business of golf i don't worry about. we don't want everyone playing? >> the speed of the game is an
issue. people don't have time to go out there four or five hours on sunday. people want two or three hours, go home and spend time with their family. making it quicker and more fun. >> that will help. >> i'm not, i'm gender blind. >> easy. easy. >> we called him mahan earlier. stay out of them. >> how long have you been wearing under armor? >> one of the first real known guys. >> over ten years. >> what do you make of how that brand in golf has just exploded? you can't turn on the tv now and see some young kid wearing under armor? >> i think they're trying to get people into under arnlor at an
early age. it's cool. as new as they are. i remember when i started, they had three colors. i had four or five. all of a sudden it became cool they have so many "options action." >> totally understated. a blue shirt, maybe grey slacks. did kevin recruit you, himself, or how did that work? >> it was probably good timing. i met kevin quite a bit. i spent time with him he's a great guy. he's excited about the brands and where it can go. he has big plans, things can happen in the next 20 years. >> where is this in a dramatic way? it's so fun. >> passionate, too. >> so you will play whistling
straits? >> in two years. >> you want an agent? >> everybody does. is there we mentioned all that are getting harder and harder. is it your putting that will make a difference? >> you got to play well on sunday. par saves, birdie putts. >> you will never win a major either. >> i hate to break it to you. >> you are probably right. >> who do you like right now? jordan? >> jordan is probably playing the best but justin rose is playing fantastic golf right now. he has been consistent. so he can play well anywhere. >> a lot can go wrong. >> he has a great tempo. >> he should look at that. >> i try. i try. >> you are right, though i got
to you guys when you are shooting the breeds on the tour do you talk about whether tiger will win another major or fought? >> last year i remember a great round on saturday and i think guys were talking, this is it. this is where he will break out. he will take off. nowadays we are thinking that might not happen but i think it's up to him. all that is within him. it's making that commitment. giving him confidence back. he can do it. he went into a slump and came back five times. so it's there. that was only two years ago. it's not long ago, gaining that confidence back it will take a little time. he played pretty good on sunday.
>> if you think about it. >> with the british. >> he's an awesome guy. >> he's great, really great on tv. >> all right. good luck. great to see you. >> thank you. >> everybody should feel bad. i will take off two weeks and quit. have this tie cleaned and burned. anyway, thank you. see you. coming up, this morning's biggest movers your list of stocks to watch is next. plus, auto companies are setting sales numbers. we are expecting chrysler ceo in the 8:00 hour. phil le beau will bring us the details.
footage all of taylor swift's music videos interviews, and more. xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. take a look at some stocks to watch. insurance company partnerre, is selling for $149.50 per share. they have in a takeover party, halliburton says they have asked about the plans $35 billion acquisition of rival baker hughes. u.s. regulators have been asking for additional information halliburton said it is committed
to close by late this year. sears expecting to have three years on gains, related to a sale of real estate assets the retailer says its financial position hasn't improved and boeing could get additional business. iranian officials say they plan to have 90 a year from boeing as well from rival airbus. all right, coming up jobs week "squawk" mark master from black rock joins us next then facebook's first intern will join us on set. radius earned him a spot in 30 under 30 tech findings. frica are rural farmers. 96% of them are doing rain-fed agriculture. they're all competing with each other; they're all making very low margins making enough to survive but not enough to get out of poverty. so kickstart designs low cost irrigation pumps
enabling them to grow high value crops throughout the year so you can make a lot of money. it's all very well to have a whole lot of small innovations but unless we can scale it up enough to where we are talking about millions of farmers, we're not going to solve their biggest challenge. this is precisely where the kind of finance that citi is giving us is enabling us to scale up on a much more rapid pace. when we talk to the farmers and ask them what's the most important thing. first of all they say we can feed our families. secondly, we can send our children to school. it's really that first step that allows them to get out of poverty and most importantly have money left over to plan for the future they want.
over a billion police documents to find hidden connections and identify potential suspects. ibm analytics helps one hundred thousand officers work smarter every day. >> global market on edge as dpreek stocks crumble. economic data on focus. wall street counts down the big jobs report. we will talk stocks interest rates and more with global chief investment strategist straight ahead. breakb news this hour new data on car sales coming out. we'll get chryslers numbers and look ahead at what the rest of the industry is expecting.
phil le beau will take us behind the wheel. >> is there a look at luxury sales? robert frank crunchs the numbers, the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> welcome gak to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're just now about 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street and the futures right now are mixed. the dow is surging, up 6 points. the nasdaq up fractionally. less than a.. if europe, it's mixed as well after what happened. we did have shanghai down a little bit today. europe now actually got green
arrows. >> it's do you know smidge. >> 1%. up 40 points or so. greece is down more than 20% after the stockmarket reopened. now down 16% which that's a big number. given everything that's happened. being closed so long. 16% is actually a positive for markets around the world, probably. >> at least it's still -- >> denominated in europe? >> at least it's opened. someone is buying something. >> as we have been saying the greek stockmarket is opened. shares there under pressure the bank stocks are getting hit. july auto sales are ahead. we expect fiat chrysler and ford
later today. phil le beau will be here to talk about it. goldman sachs is increasing estimates if a legal offerings. legal costs could go as high as $5.9 billion up from the previous top estimate of $3.8 billion. it just never ends for these banks. >> we have a couple of stocks on move, tyson foods, missed estimates on the top and bottom line. just in the beef market. tyson also lowered its forecast for the year. partnerre will be acquired they have been the subject of an ongoing party. it will be our turn. >> a different viewer. people could be waking up. >> my alarge goes off at 3:45.
>> why do you have to be here? >> all you have to do at 6:00 a.m. if i'm up and here i assume people are here. >> people in california they should watch at 3:00 a.m.? >> people in california governor moon i'm not sure. >> what time do you get up? >> i rolled out of the sack. >> i live three blocks away. >> i like to get ready for the show. >> it takes a lot. will you see. the first trading day of august. over the years, the month has proven to be volatile. 1998, the dow dropped on political concerns in russia then 2011 500 on august 4th. 635 points after s&p downgraded
the u.s. credit rating. two days later another 520 points. >> my first day on the job. >> the dow dropped 500 points. >> it had nothing to do with you, right? >> it had to do with the ruble t. whole thing. yeah. >> besides those historic moves, it's not been a bad month to put money to work. dom chu joins us. even if the most recent ones haven't been all that great either. >> for the record guys my wife wakes up 4:30 every day effectively, if she's up we are up me and the dopg. it's still europe at that point in the morning. >> etc. not ""squawk"". >> generally speaking there may
be opportunities in certain parts of the market. at least not historically speaking. we asked our partners to take a look at the stats over the last five years. we used five years, if you use ten, they get skewed. take a look at this. over the last five years, on average, not great. down a percent-and-a-half. but among some of the best stocks, kurig green mountain has been positive 100% of the time. still color for the market. hewlett packard shares average the loss. that's the s&p. let's fast forward into the nasdaq. if you take a at the nasdaq it averages a 30% of the turn to the downside. net flicks shares stands out as
well netflix up 80%. discovery communications though posting an learn% loss. few want to take a longer look at some of the trends the fox look at the dow over the past 100 years. the dow is positive by about a percent here's where things get worse. over the last 50 years it posted a small decline. over the last 20 years, over 1% losses positive about 55% of the time t. coin toss over the last 20 years, something to mull over in the marks, joe back over to you guys. >> all right. thank you. i'll see you a bit later. for more on the marks, we are joined by black rock, global
chief investment strategist. are you scared? whipping out here? >> the sweat is drinking down. i don't think it's about being scared. so look i don't pay as much attention to seasonally. there are a couple things investors should take note of. >> if you look at high yield you see a persistent high yield spread. it's something volatility. every indicator of growth is pointed at a slow down. not a collapse, a slow down. if you look at history, we're the two big drivers with expectation growth. until the very least, to it does not seem right. >> how much of all of the
reduced volatility due to yellen and that might slowly be getting taken away too, so maybe we see a return of volatility. that's one of the reasons there hasn't been as much. >> if you think of the last five years, you have an environment, bad news is good news the market will rally, the expectation is you will get more liquidity. maybe it will be the december hike, not a september hike. the reality is at some point in the next six to nine months we are going to start to see that accommodation be removed. in the absence of that is monetary possibility volatility does the same thing. >> some of the comments after a while the low volatility environment, you see momentum become more important.
is that your point? therefore, if momentum dries up you can't count on it. >> the point is if you think of momentum and quality value, these are all factors on the mark. they work differently at different times. momentum is generally the most effective in the environment. we've had low volatility. it's stable volatility. if we start to see volatility you put it. it comes closer to normal. momentum may not be suspected in that market. quality becomes more engtive. >> there has been a good debate whether value will cam back in to vote. it plays on the point you are talking about. do you think it is after being in the weeds. >> if we do see a better economy
generally value picks up relative to growth in that environment. so, yes, i do think value will be better going into the second half of the year. >> so the momentum etf is up 9%. what's the sticker. >> ntum. >> momo would be better. exactly. >> mtum. >> all right. so globally we've seen estimates as far as growth come down. what do you attribute debt? it would seem sooner tan later it's reflective in commodity prices. you would think the big tax break we are getting is $46 oil. you would think that would be stimulative. once the costs are factored in. it should end up being positive for global growth. >> it should be over the lower term.
what you see, one it's not just about energy. there is a general flow in china. it's brazil other emerging markets. the other thing that's happened is the u.s. consumer has not responded to script. as you point out, typically, you see lower oil prices. what's happening on the first six months of the year in addition to wages fought accelerating in the past savings rates have gone up. consumers have saved that windfall. they have not spent it. you have the negative impact of energy companies. you haven't yet got an tail wind from higher consumption. >> are you raise cash no new investment? you don't sounds like you will miss anything if you step aside here? >> i think there will be a better market. we're not looking if you look at tightening generally you get a
five to 10% direction on growth that seems right. >> not going anywhere. >> at least in the u.s. >> i was back at apple, too, that's the big momo stuff, 691 billion mark cap. >> biotech the last few weeks. >> i love it. >> apple is getting into the dow. >> $780 billion. a slam dunk. >> icon everybody. >> coming up next, puerto rico defaulting on payments over the weekend. is a restructuring next for the commonwealth? the latest on the situation there. next. a live report. home prices softening.
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>> jessica alba's company is under complaints many say the sun screen is leaving their children burned. an explanation says the honest company dropped the percentage of zinc oxide at some point. people took to twitter to voice their concerns. brandon atmosphereerton posting a photo of his burnt head quote, this is my very real result from honest 30 spf sunscreen, only spent one hour inside burnt. #not happy. tweeting no offense to honest but i will never use your sunscreen again after applying it liberally every hour my baby girl is burnt. not happy. honest issued a public response saying we take all consumer
feedback very seriously that fishsz gentleman spent one hour outside. >> i wasn't going to correct you. >> you could have. >> he said inside. it was outside. >> coming up. >> did it? >> no front setup. >> see what happens when you get out. >> out back. >> oh no it's all right. >> go back. >> coming up. coming up he started his career reselling computer components on ebay at the age of 15. he was facebook's first intern and now he is getting a $50 investment for the marketing start-up radius. up next could airplane debris that washed up on an indian ocean island belong to the malaysian airlines flight 370? probably. details next.
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puerto rico defaulted. the commonwealth to start a restructuring of the debt pile. kate kelly is in san juan with more. kate. >> reporter: good morning, michelle, a government official here in san juan said friday that the deposit would not be able to make payment on a $58 million debt service payment in an entity he called the public finance corporation. we are awaiting confirmation that has not been made.
they have a grace period in order to do that. the wide expectation is they will be in default. sa far, we are seeing a general bond, tied the puerto rico debt if 2035. they were off at last check. the other bonds including the ones that didn't pay less liquid. we haven't seen that quite yet. now the san juan daily star language paper reporting that the government the negotiating for yet another short-term loan. in this case 400 million to help it get through the rest of the calendar year and pay the debt. residents are worried about the long-term prospects of the island they are concerned about the lack of jobs the lack of economic opportunity. at the same time they exist in this grey yeah that i have limited access to federal benefits like medicare. at the same time they don't have to pay income taxes, some arguing they need statehood or access to a chapter 9.
they are awaiting to see the impact on the broader markets, if any. >> we are waiting to see if that hits. don't move joining us in puerto rico is the co-founder and co-ceo credit opportunities, an investor in puerto rican debt. good to have you here. >> explain one thing to the audience. 75 billion roughly for puerto rican debt. less tan greece, when i look back at greece at least most of the debt was kind of the same thing, different maturity five years, ten years, 30 years, london, greek. generally, you can do a restructuring on the entire pile all at once. puerto rico has collateralized everything. it's like the greek diner menu 1,500 different issuances, how do you decide which of those you will pick based on what will default first or last year. you can't default all at once? >> it is important to understand there are 18 different credits
on the island of puerto rico. it ranged differently. so your decisions come from understanding which ones actually have the ability to pay and which ones have protections for creditors. that's important. because some of them have the ability to pay. this is a fact that's lost in the rhetoric of the country. government. they kind of conplate all the debt and make it seem as though all the debt cannot be paid. frankly, it's just fought true. there is actual capacity within the system to pay the most senior obligations the debt the sales tacticco fi na. so there is a healthy amount of solvency. further down without doubt, there is going to be impairment in the credits, default likely structuring. we are all guessing. there is no plan. we see today, there are three issues coming. we know one is likely to be defaulted on. the other is being told there will be a payout for the development bank. we are sure theco fi na bonds as well. the market is tough to guess.
we are not given a clear plan how this liquidity is navigated here. >> in the wake people think of credit am i going to get paid pack? how many pennies on the dollar am i to pay about whether or not i will get paid back. >> i think in certain parts of the capital stack. the breadth of the different credits, that's true. frankly, when i look at the top part, i look at it it's joined five times coverage, do i look at the general obligation bonds which have a priority under the constitution, where expenses have been barely cut. there is ample capacity to get par they're trading mid to high 60s probably. >> you don't think they need par? >> i don't think there is any need in a learning requirement and debt.
>> it has been with them at least 18 months. in doing so what they haven't done is addressed. >> given what you are saying a lot of people felt we can't. >> over and days later, we would pay $2 billion in debt service payments. a lot of people thought he was crying wolf. today the public finance corporations missed payment, may be the first domino to fall in terms of what he was talking about. how much of this is political posturing and making the problem worse and how much of it is a real thing? >> well there is no doubt there is a problem. but the government's rhetoric hasn't helped. it's added to the volatility. i've talked about how it makes all the debt seem the same. we see today that's not the case. some is payable.
some is not. ignore the insolvency protections over there. this is the reason there is a lot of on island blow back to the rhetoric. it hurts puerto ricans most profoundly than anyone else. we talk about whether the contagion in the market. it's significant relative to what this will do to puerto rico. it will hurt the economy and earn the debt it's owned by puerto ricans. there is no way that's going to be something that's good for the island. so the governor has probably engaged if what is largely a political exercise here and it's lent to a lot of confusion in the marketplace. >> on that note the health care crisis is coming to puerto rico. it's great to have you. >> thank you very much. >> thank you for joining us from puerto rico. >> okay. coming up breaking knick economic news then. chrysler expected ford an gm expected later this morning. will the numbers be enough? we'll find out. as we head to break. take a look at u.s. equities futures at this hour one hour
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we are literally second away from personal income. we have the ten 84 right now. there it is rick santelli at the cme chicago, rick the numbers, please. >> all right. joe. personally good for june. up .4 better than expected. you know the spending side of course, important up .2. december are close to expectations. if you take a gander at last month, there were some summer revisions. income originally released downgraded by .1 up .4. on the spending side originally set up .9 now up .7. 'we get on the back side. we were a little hotter in terms of a tenth on the front side. deflate year over year might be something you want to pay attention to. that's on a year over year up .3.
if we look at pc core month up year over year core 1.3. too es are fascinating in the form of construction spending. interest rates on the low side. global horse power is big contributions the likes of coin potentially europe. trade issues between europe china, japan, all these things same to be having taking a bit of a toll on the marketplace. of course, post-fed meeting. nothing really but more questions than answers, fed fund futures for what little market reads we have the messages. they don't seem tore the september tightening. back to you, i hope you had a good weekend. >> rick, great weather. >> steve liesman is here with more on the data. >> show me the numbers, 1.3?
1.3 and 1.3. do you have confidence that number is financial to 2 12k34r yes -- no. >> is that gdp. >> no res to the core that the fed watches over the last four months they have been 1.3 each month. thist number janet yellen needs more or less to make confident that the number is going towards 2%. you tell me. i will tell you that the headline the year over year number for the headline price index, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3. notice there are percentage points underneath that. my take is that they're not so much interested and confident as going to two. but confidence is not going back down to zero. i this i they get that from there. so rick had a different take. i don't know if he's still around. it will be interesting to hash out where he is coming from. but to me just barely enough to
get under the wire for that rate hike i this i. >> we have a full conversation of when will they raise? when will they raise? everybody is focused on unemployment. if they want an excuse not to go. >> i think that's exactly right, michelle. i was going to say, the job story is in the win column for raising rates. >> for sure. >> it's the inflation story. now, i will tell you. >> you need both. >> you have one of two, you don't have both. >> why are you 75% september and others think september is going to happen too. if you need both parts of the equation, you are getting one. >> the question started off with that retorical theme. what do you feed to be confident going to two and to me you just barely getting there. it's really not confidence they don't want to hike into fear of deflation. >> when you look at what's hapg
happening in commodities, they're getting pummelled. >> you have manufacturing getting cheaper. you know. >> the guy with the totally shaved head. >> not on shaving my head. >> a simple question. . . we won't go into that. simple question. let's forget whether you believe the numbers on inflation or you want to look at financial versus traditional. look at that 1.3. i want to understand let's say it stays that way five more years and growth stays between two and 2.5% for five more years, you would say we stay at zero for five more years? >> that's a great question. i think you would. i think you would. in fact you could make an argument right there, rick you may want to sit down when i say
this, for additional quantitative easing. theoretically. >> i tell you why if you have your goal you are not hitting it at zero, it tells you, you are theoretically too tight. you feed a greater stimulus joe is about to fall off his chair. >> you make the effect that it's affecting the issues you are monitoring. >> that's another great question you bring up. >> that will be jackson hole. >> it's a statement of fact. >> it's a statement of fact in that the feds should -- >> i seen the papers that give me a high correlation of fed policy versus traditional question or financial inflation or growth or the people dropping out of the labor force. >> if there is one thing the fed should be able to do is affect the inflation rate. it should be able with the quantity of money to choose an inflation rate. >> that is proven to be untrue over the six or seven-year
period the fed has been at zero. >> what is that? >> we don't know. nobody knows. you should be able to do it. you can't pick a potential growth rate. those are matters of the economy, productivity all things. you can -- >> you can't artificially -- >> you can. rick, where we disagree is the theory is you should be able to nudge the economy back to it's growth rate. >> the government shouldn't do the nudgeing. business should be doing the nudging. if the government does the nudge, they're nudges. >> it's a play like. it can be done. >> thank you, guys. >> christ ler reporting, more on those numbers and the auto makers today. let's hear from phil le beau. >> hey, scott, better than
expected numbers in july the estimate, 3.3%. jeep remains the red hot brand. you look at the brands in the mass market. jeep sales last month up 23%, all a part of chrysler posting its best july since 2005. we have july sales numbers from nissan coming in with a gain of 7.8%. it was a an estimate a gain of 9%. when you look at suvs, crossovers, pick-ups. that's the hot market up 22% for nissan. here are the estimates for the other major plays within the auto industry last month. don't get focused up or down. what you want to see is overall for the entire industry last month and when you look in the show rooms, we talked with dealers, everybody said the same
thing, the sales rate for last month is expected to come in between 17.1 and 17.3 million. if that happens, it will be three straight months above 17 million as a sales base. the first time the u.s. has done that since 2000. the reason we are focusing on these guys is because they are really in the sweet spot of the market right now. trucks suvs, red hot, especially with lower gas prices, guys we will get those footballs from those guys coming up in the next 45 minutes. back to you. >> hot getting hotter. $46 oil today. so it's not the jeeps, it's the jeep cherokee. >> whatever their suv models are. >> it's across the line. usually you look at a lineup, you say a couple old models they can stand to put out to pasture or refresh. that's not the case with jeep right now. it is every single pod el they
have out right now is on fire. >> no overhangs or any of that you expect going forward. that es are backwards looking numbers, obviously. >>. and i don't expect anything this summer. guys, i've said this before. there is recall fatigue in this country. when i bring that story up with people. the general feeling i get is eh, so what. those are models in the past. >> you keep track of the point and the recalls anymore, right? >> you got the parents and the two kids and you got to dog and that's you know it's either the cherokee on the dreaded. >> minivan. >> you don't want to do that. >> third row. you need the third row. >> you have it. can you put it down. >> it's got to happen. >> third row. >> they got go to have a third row. >> when we return -- it's not -- it's functional.
facebook's first intern has been involved with the company like lending club. peter teel is taking notice of his new company. he will tell us about radius after the break and what's on the end of this fisherman's line, stay tuned to find out the amazing video is next. you're driving along, having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pick-up truck slams into your brand new car. one second it wasn't there and the next second... boom! you've had your first accident. now you have to make your first claim. so you talk to your insurance company and... boom! you're blindsided for a second time. they won't give you enough money to replace your brand new car. don't those people know you're already shaken up? liberty mutual's new car replacement will pay for the entire value of your car plus depreciation. call and for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch to liberty mutual insurance and you could save up to $423 dollars. call liberty mutual
a florida man has a tale after he landed a huge fish. he was fishing from his paddle vote he hooked a 7 foot 400-pound grouper. look at that. the fish was so large, it went into the water. wait for it. wait for it. he was eventually able to land the massive fish. >> yeah citigrouper sandwich. >> holly smokes. >> that is amazing. 400 pounds? >> wow. >> it's protected. i didn't know. that i used to eat grouper all the time. >> fluke?
>> flounder. >> also on animal house. yes. >> our next guest was the first intern another the behemoth we now know as facebook. the skills of the largest social network provided him to launch his own company. since then he's pivoted to start radius. a company on predictive marketing software. darian shirozi the founder around ceo is with us on set. first intern at facebook what were you doing? >> it was a lot of what needed to get done. it was a good conversation to start my own. >> it sound like you were a good employee him did they give you stock? >> what was nice, it allowed me to work on projects to see how big the company was thinking. most don't think big enough.
that was one of the things facebook did really well. they had a vision to do something big. how do we build something to be huge, not something that's a quick flip or a quick sale. >> radius was fixed. >> it was at one point. we went through a lot of different years to figure out how to make something successful. at this point now it's known as radius. it's a predictive marketing software platform for top fortune 500 ceos, american express, staples, use this day in day out. >> to do what. you help them find new markets. you come to me on american express. will you do what for me? >> i will analyze the existing examiner base. you can go after based on your past success. so which customers of different products, why they should pie those products and an leadsing it all using a product. instead of sitting around a table with your team saying hey, we soul figure out which
customers to go after. you are looking at what your market segment is and the computer is telling you which segment to go after. >> peter teel is a backer? >> yes, he is he has a facebook connection. he has been a big proponent of the company. sales force, which is great. it helps us better insurance who we can go after. john mack is an inzor as well. jerry yang on the board of ali baba. you see big names. >> speaking of multibillion. what doong are you valued at? >> between a half a billion and a billion right now. i like to make sure we are raising on a fair evaluation. they are getting out of control in silicon valley. i think ours is fair commensurate with the company. >> which ones are overvalued right now?
>> i think there is a good number. most are in the collaborative consumption space or the ride sharing space. i'm an investor in lyft. i think it's a fair valuation. >> you say uber? >> uber is valued now 51? >> 51 billion-and-a-half. i think what you will see is on a basis of comparing it. it is a little high. if you look at it from a private equity investor of venture capital perspective, it isn't high. you will get your return. black rock or fidelity is looking at getting 2 x on their money. you are paying ahead of where the market is right now. uber will be worth $100 become. you are fidelity you don't care. that's a good return for you. >> you said you were an investor in lytf. >> i am yes. we will talk about that. i like to pride myself on. >> getting in before it as well.
>> we have the we also wanted to build out a philanthropic side as well similarly to how sales force did. part of the book that i really love beyond the cloud that mark writes about is you can do good by building a great business. that's what we want to do at radius as well and give back to the community. so you can only do that if you are an independent business. if you are a part of another company, it is difficult to do that well. >> i was going to ask you that. sales force, you do a deal with somebody. >> i mean there is opportunities that have already happened that woe thought about taking. but realistically, the investor base wants to build a big business. i want to build a big business so do my co-founders. adrian, no 'ah, the executives
were focused on building a big business and the ipo market makes it in the private marks makes it so you can stay private much longer and get the lick wittied, get the prb, as you see here, that you need in order to grow the business without having to be public. >> good seeing you. are you still in the facebook shares? >> i do. i do. >> happy man, see you soon. >> good luck. >> thank you very much. >> when we return, jim cramer from the floor of the new york stock exchange. find out what the investors wants to see on wall street. it's a slightly positive open. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. . ♪
get excited for the 1989 world tour with exclusive behind the scenes footage all of taylor swift's music videos interviews, and more. xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim, you're tweeting at 2:00 in the morning. it always freaks me out when i look at that and just wonder i don't know how that works. but i look back at some of the things. what i want to talk about was a discussion with rich greenfield. it's what i think is a glacial move and when he sent out evidence of people that do cut the cord. i read their stories and i still can't think it's going to be that pervasive immediately,
right away. for me maybe i'm set in my ways but tszit's easy for me to have it the way it is. the new adopters are quicker at finding their video content. for me i have 1,000 channels and i don't have enough. >> i agree with you. i think every time we write off these networks and cable, we see great quarters and end up thinking okay there's outliers who decide to leave, but i know disney, if you want to sell it i mean i understand it just ran up 40 points but you're selling it ahead of star wars and shanghai disney and on abc. espn is making nutbackeing cutbacks but the programming is must have programming. i don't see it happening. i don't see it happening with my kids or me. i guess i keep thinking who is it happening with. it doesn't resonate.
>> it's a glacial move. i'm thinking if i was going to spend the day at home the day, if all i had was netflix, i don't know. i don't know. i just -- but that's me. she's got this watch. >> i think you're right. look i'm not a huge tv watcher but last night i was at a place, i'm not a crazy true detective place but i was at a place that didn't have hbo. i'm thinking give me a break. you don't have hbo. >> okay. all right. how about you don't have espn? really? am i in like -- >> how are you doing fantasy football? what's your game plan? >> i could not live. >> no. >> my husband couldn't survive without it. >> where am i, chechnya? >> when we come back are the super rich becoming price sensitive when it comes to buying mansions.
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when you're not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t's innovative solutions connect machines and people... to keep your internet of things in-sync, in real-time. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. a new report shows mansion prices stagnant. what does it mean for million
dollar homes? >> mansion prices may be getting too rich even for the rich. a report compiled by red fin show that while sales are up prices were flat or down. there were 24,000 homes sold in the second quarter for over $1 million. that's up 14% over last year but prices were down 2 .4% in the quarter. and inventory creeping up as well. more than 4,000 homes priced at 5 million or more. that's up 8.5%. weaker demand from overseas a flat stock market and five years of soaring sales are taking prices more than what people are willing to pay. one sold for $59.3 million. the biggest sale over the asking
price was a tear down in san francisco. that was listed for 6 million and it went for $11 million. but all three of the biggest mansion discounts in the quarter were also in the bay area. all a home listed for 28 million sold for $18.3 million. that's a discount of $10 million. where is the cut off with a mansion has an elevator? how much money do you -- what's a home -- what's the average home go for with an elleevator? >> we've seen fairly small apartments in new york that have a private elevator. you know. okay. i'm not going to comment on who does or doesn't have an elevator. but it's a pretty common thing. >> you thought that was a random question? >> it's a necessity. >> i'm out of here.
>> are you coming in tomorrow? >> you can get me back tomorrow. i'm here all week. >> you think i'm jealous? >> i'm going to your house. >> i'm going to see what you have. >> we'll all be here tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. it's the first day of august. a big week. retail and media earnings. isms, jobs number on friday. ten-year is hanging onto 2 .2. oil, another bruising session. close to 46. the lowest since march. the road map this morning n the president expected to unveil the