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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 4, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EST

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the gang. what is on tap. >> you are talking about chipolte. we have the deutsche bank analyst who just cut her price target to 525 on the back of the e-coli outbreak and with the comp forecast coming down, it is a great time to talk to her. >> it is. straight over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts right now. overlooking times square, i'm melissa lee, your traders are dan, brian, karen and guy adami. tonight on "fast," oil below $40 a barrel as opec will not cut production. who is winning the oil war now. we have the details. and the yahoo board meeting coming to an end and a shareholder holding $75 million worth of stock. he's not happy. why he has lost all confidence in the board. and later, chipolte hitting a new year-to-date low after the company cut the guidelines and why one analyst thinks it might be more of a problem than you think. but one of the craziest,
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stunning days on the year on wall street. after commenting from mario draghi, sending stocks soaring, the dow up more than 350 points. and it was stocks, gold, bonds and so if you are an investor looking at this market right now. what do you do? guy? >> i think the bond market still wants to go higher. in other words yields want to go down. the dollar rally despite what we saw yesterday is still in tact. the gold move, although long in the tooth, might have a couple more days in it despite i think the dollar will continue to rally. the s&p is the wild card. i thought given the job numbers you would see a follow-through to the down side. because if there was a question the fed will raise in december, it was answered this morning with the job numbers. i thought you would see the extension to the down side. you didn't. because draghi walked back everything he said yesterday and said their central bank is still on the table. >> we traded down so many times
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on the fed hiking that i think we're done trading down on that already. if you put yesterday and today together, not that much really happened. so it is really hard to -- for me, i can't go in and out on something i don't quite understand. there were a lot of pieces yesterday that i thought they shouldn't move together the way they are moving and they reversed today. it is very difficult to know what to do. >> so draghi is more dovish. the fed hike is more certain. we rally hard with huge gains in banks and airline stocks, some losses in energy stocks. what do you do today? >> i did it yesterday. yesterday i bought tlt and some gold. this is how it makes sense to me. if you look at the week as a whole. we had a week manufacturing number, below 50 suggestioning contraction in that sector. services ism came in lower than expected. now you have a weak economy. and the jobs number comes out and it is hotter. so you get kind of that not too
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hot, not too cold economy. it gives the fed cover to raise a quarter of a point. but the trajectory, and i think it should be flat, they are not going to hike rates. they are not in a rate hiking cycle. so you see gold and bonds going higher and then the stock market likes it because they are not taking the punch bowl away, just taking the ladle away and leaving a couple of straws. >> in the jobs data, we didn't have a whole heck of a lot of inflation. so they might do the one and done thing people are talking about but not have a schedule for rate hikes going forward. which brings you back to the dollar. you did see it come back. one of the interesting things in the market as far as u.s. eck witzes was the bid that consumer -- was the bid consumer staples got. as the dollar was rallying. proctor and gamble was run i thought was interesting. >> a false rally? >> it could be. but the dollar had a big move over the last year, it was
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unable to break out. we had the massive move down 3% yesterday versus the euro. if the dollar doesn't go up, maybe stocks like proctor and gamble work again. they have the yield. they are defensive. and if things overseas pick up, maybe they will do better. >> so the area in the market seeing the most pain from a rising u.s. dollar, that the dollar will continue to rise, you are saying that that trouble spot in the market basically sort of haled itself -- healed itself for now. >> i was surprised staples and other guys that have been so hard about the sentiment about the strong dollars, when it was down so much. and one things that stuck out to me like a sore thumb was the strength. >> and the thing about the dollar yesterday, it was not a economic move. the dollar didn't weaken because something changed in the u.s. economy. it weakened because people were too long on the dollar. it was a consensus trade. so that would make sense why the consumer staples didn't necessarily move on that. >> more than 3% gains in
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microsoft, in apple, we had big gains across the board in banks, whether it be the big banks or regional banks. what do you buy here? what is the rally that we saw today that would be a true rally to buy into? >> names that still work. now we sound like a broken record. but netflix breaking out, i believe. microsoft, i think still has room to the upside. we'll test the all-time high we made in '99. apple you say with. i don't know if there are catalysts necessary but that stock does something regardless of tape. names you stay away from are ibm, et al. i think the cyber security names are doing well. and we mentioned the solar names. sun power, despite a tough move yesterday, i think in the space is a name you still want to own. >> karen? >> i like anthem, which had sold off on the united health care news and came out right after and seeing we are not seeing what they are seeing and the stock has yet to recover with big payroll numbers. that is good for anthem.
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>> okay. turning to the other big story. crude oil falling below the crucial $40 level as opec decided to maintain production levels at high price. hell ima croft joins us from where the meeting took place today. most people came awe from the meeting -- came away from the meeting and said nothing has changed and this is exactly what was expected. you are reading it differently. >> my reading was essentially that they punting. this is rolling over by default, not by design. i mean, there is no number in the statement. they didn't say we're going to produce 30 as a ceiling. 31.5 as some were speculated today. they couldn't reach an agreement on what to do. and basically, i think it was a sign of opec's powerlessness and the fact they are paralyzed at this point and bowing to something beyond their control. so i didn't see this as a collective will on opec to try to punish u.s. shell production or russian production. i saw them throwing their hands
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up and saying we're going to take this away to see what we'll do next year. >> what does this mean for oil prices? are we stuck in the 40-ish sort of range? what struck me, there was a comment reported -- from an iraqi oil minister saying if non-opec members don't have a production ceiling why should opec members have a production ceiling. it sounded like you have to do your job before we do our job? >> think of the iraqis, they were one of the biggest contributors. and they are were up 700,000 barrels year-over-year. they don't want concerns in their production because they are so poor they need to push out every last barrel. but that is the position of the big opec players. we can't do this if russia and mexico won't do this with us. so we really need to have nonopec play their role. there is no expectation that u.s. producers will willingly pull back. but i believe they could somehow pull the russiaons on side if there is enough to the price.
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i think it is a long haul. >> thank you for phoning in. helleema croft phoning in from vieh anna where the opec meeting took place. next year we are expecting iran to put a million barrels a day on the market. >> with declining demand. you have a rising dollar. even if demand stays the same or increases a little bit -- the other thing they did today is they said the ceiling is 31.5. 32 million barrels or something like that and that is the production level. that is an acknowledgment that they have more room. because, remember, officially they were at like 29. so that is an extra couple million barrels on the market that is an acknowledgment which means opec has more to punt. what does it mean for the investor, you have to sell xle, clr, sell all of the names highly leveraged because oil is going to 20. >> some are trading like they are going out of business. >> we were talking earlier about the capital structures starting to fall apart in some of them. the $20 to me seems -- you are
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just throwing it out there to be dramatic? >> no. it is based on strong dollar and it is about the average in the 1980s oil glut, when we had the strong dollar and over supply. and $20 is the break-out point from the late 80s into the 90s so it has technical support there as well. >> even if oil doesn't go to 20 and stays at 40 -- >> it is not good. >> it might not be good enough for some of the players. >> it is not good enough. and think the end game for opec is to hurt the u.s. shale producers. i might have a disagreement there but i don't think it matters because the outcome is the same. a lot of the names are still expensive. i think slumber jay is going slower. >> and go-pro could have a bad holiday season. we'll explain after the break. and as the yahoo board meeting comes to an end, a shareholder speaking about why marissa meyer needs to go.
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and chipolte tanking after hours as the company slashes the forecast. we have the details and the trade right after the break. sure thing... uh right now you can get 15 gigs of data for the price of 10. that's five extra gigs for the same price. looks like someone just made it to the top of the nice list. in that case, i want a new bicycle, a bike helmet, a basketball, a stuffed animal that talks when you squeeze it. and... yes, yes. i got your letter. we're good. oh. okay i was just making sure. get 15 gigs for the price of 10 now at at&t. [sfx: bell] but the more you learn about insurancyour coverage,bout it. the more gaps you may find. [burke] like how you thought you were covered for this... [man] it's a profound statement. [burke] but you're not even covered for this... [man] it's a profound statement. [burke] or how you may be covered for this... [burke] but not for something like this... [burke] talk to farmers and see what gaps could be hiding in your coverage.
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welcome back to "fast money." i'm morgan brennan.
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check out shares of chipolte. cutting guidance due to the recent e-coli outbreak. if current trends continue it expected comparable restaurant sales in the range of negative 8 to negative 11% for the fourth quarter. also forecasting earnings per share to 2.85, much lower than the $4 consensus on the street. warning in light of recent sales trends and uncertainty related to the e-coli situation, it is rescinding the fourth quarter sales growth which has been low to mid single-digit increase based on the last earnings. and announcing a $300,000 stock repurchase program but keep in mind this is extending to three more straights of e-coli bringing the total up to 9 states. and shares are down more than 7% after hours. and since october, since the first cases cropped up, the shares are down more than 28%. back over to you.
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>> thank you, margon brennan. and if this holds, a new low for chipolte shares, the problem is that it is priced for growth. it has a forward p.e. of 33 and that is higher than mcdonald or yum. >> but it is not priced for people to avoid their restaurants. like the plague. which i don't care -- we were talking about it before, if you are walking by a chipolte, you are not inclined to walk in. that is human nature. and it won't get better for the foreseeable future. what does it mean for the stock? i think there is further pain next week. i can't tell you where it is going but i don't think it will hold $500 on the down side. >> i agree. with a momentum name like this, i don't know why they gave any guidance. how could they possibly know -- i mean, you can't know and i think they should say we are focusing on the problem and that is where we are spending our energy. >> and the problem is they don't know what the problem is. >> that is exactly the problem. >> it is a fresh ingredient and they don't know where or what it is and where it is coming from.
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>> and it is expanding every day. every day people are turning on the news, other e-coli and chipolte warning. so again through 500, most likely. >> i think 480 is the stop. >> yahoo could make a change. and we'll have a guest with us. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. here is what else is coming up on "fast." [ matchmaker, matchmaker look through your book and make me a perfect match ♪ >> that is what shareholders are asking yahoo to do. and we have may have found the perfect partner. and we'll explain. plus -- >> so you're telling me there is a chance. >> that is what traders are saying about big, long-shot bets. and we'll break down what they are and how you could make money, later in the hour. smart devices are up. cloud is up. analytics is up.
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plus unlimited video streaming with binge on™. stream netlfix, hbo now , hulu and more without using your data. and now unwrap the samsung galaxy s6 for $0 upfront and just $10 bucks a month. this year tear into the holidays with t-mobile. we have news on the yahoo board meeting. kara swisher has the details. hey, kara. >> hey, how are you doing. >> so what is the latest. >> oh, sorry, i thought you were going to ask me a question. i just reported, there is swirl about when they would decide on the issue and i thought by the end of the weekend they will
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have a decision on the spin. and it is not clear they will halt it. and there is articles and continue to be articles about her tenure and whether she will stay. and from what i could tell and i have good sources, they are supporting her. >> and so they are meeting through the weekend and wrapping up by friday. >> not exactly. they didn't meet for today for example. they had sub-meetings. today. there is reportings not very good. they had 48 hours of meetings on wednesday and thursday and they are discussing legal implications and they have a deadline to tell bondholders by december 9th. so they do have to come up with a decision or continue to do what they were doing before. which is to spin this alibaba segment off. >> kara, so if they continue down the prior route here, when you think about it, you just said the board is supporting marissa meyer but if investors stop supporting here, it would be a problem here.
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it could force their hand. i mean, is there -- i read your note from earlier. is there a chance that she just walked away -- walks away for the better of the whole enterprise? >> no. why should she. i don't mean to be rude. but there are ceos doing much worse than her. why would she do this at this juncture. and she is literally about to have children -- twins this week, i think. the timing is odd for her to do something like that. again, i think she feels she has a plan in place. from what i understand from people close to her, she feels she has something she wants to do here and wants to continue at yahoo. at the same time, i know the media is calling for it and shareholders are calling for it. but is there an urgency here or a lot of noise. and that is what the board has to decide. are the real investors saying fire this woman or are the real investors saying you have to sell it. i don't think that is the case. i haven't heard -- there is big investors like jerry yang, he hasn't voiced an opinion on it.
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maybe privately, but i don't think there is enormous amount of pressure yet -- yet, about what will happen here. >> what do you believe will happen? will the core be sold or will there be a spinoff? >> i've been a critic of marissa mayer, so i'm saying she shouldn't be fired. but she's done a lackluster job here. at the same time, it is an enormously difficult company. i don't know if anybody could do it better. and who do they replace her with. they have to wait to sell it. and there is a lot of ifs, if something like that did happen. i think eventually she will not be the ceo. eventually the company will be sold. i think it will be a very long process to do so. there is a lot of bidders and complications. it takes a lot of progress. but i don't think anything is going to happen in the immediate future. [ technical difficulties ]
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>> ourks next guest owns almost $75 million worth of yahoo stock and what should they do. mike winston joins us. mike, what would you like to see happen. >> thank you for having me on. i love the show. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. i would like to see the spinoff continue as planned. and then would you like to see the business up for sale. >> are you worried there will be tax implications or the spinoff will be and you won't know the tax implications after. >> i'm not worried about the tax implications. we've done work on this. the irs has passed on three cost-free chances to stop the spin. they could have given an adverse ruling instead of no rule. they could have put out a notice of proposed rule making rather than a gentle revenue change that came out earlier this year. and they also didn't put a retroactive date in the revenue procedure which they did in the case of pharmaceutical
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enversions. as much as we're worried about taxes, i don't think the irs is going to wait five years to wage an uphill multi-million dollar litigation against something they could have just said nah and stopped. >> what price do you think it should be trading at right now? >> if you put a 15% discount on a back after the spinoff, that would put it around $47 today. >> and last question here, mike, do you think that marissa mayer should go? >> that is a tough one. i mean she certainly gained our respect but lost our confidence. i think the spinoff would go a long way to restoring it. and i guess i would add that, you know, there is really no reason to stop the spin here other than jeff smith's letter which -- because the board, remember, reconsidered this matter back when the irs gave the no-rule. >> right. >> so it is sort of like, the
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only reason they would stop it is out of a sense of self-preservation because jeff had removed the board at darden. >> thank you. mike winston, sudden view capital. so let's play matchmaker of our own. who should buy the yahoo business. >> another company not performing well is twitter. they have $3.5 billion in cash. they need reach. and they talk about the users not logged on. this could be something if they bought this core for $4 billion. jack dorsey runs them together and that could be interesting for the new world order, especially as twitter is about to surpass yahoo as the number three display ad user next year by e-marketer. >> what was that? >> matchmaker, matchmaker. >> all right. so for me, i think it is something like a comcast. because the big thing yahoo has, yahoo finance, which is a great
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site. and yahoo sports. those are the two main sections. comcast could wo be great. >> and comcast the owner of cbs. and they put that out as well. i can't believe you didn't know matchmaker, matchmaker. so what do you think? >> i'm going in a different direction. i don't see a corporate buyout. i'm going with the silver lake private equity. if they could buy it for cheap and milk whatever they can out of the existing base, which is big, dwindling but still big, maybe that is how you do it. >> i don't know how they don't know that mary poppins was my favorite movie. it is crazy they didn't know that. >> mary poppins is not -- that is fiddler on the roof. >> it is from your generation. >> watch what this one is. iac should right swipe on this. why do i say that? because they own tinder.
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it fits perfectly with the different properties. that stock hasn't done well but you should buy iac stock but i think they might be interested in this little thing right here. >> nice right swipe. bringing it up to the century here. time for the final trade. around the horn. dan. >> i just mentioned twitter, i've been wrong. i think it closes near the lows of the year. >> brian kelly. >> if you want to buy european stocks, their economy is okay for now. buy it via dxge and that is short and you are currency hedged. >> karen. >> energy annihilation across the board. >> would buy a little bit of go lark. >> gee? >> fun show. >> look who is here on a friday. >> i was going to mention that. usually we are finerman-free on friday. but she is with us here today on a friday. >> thank you. happy to be here. >> that deserves a clap. enjoyable week. with that said, i know i'll get ridiculed for this, but that
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netflix, it is breaking out to the upside. i think it trades 143. >> i'm melissa lee, thank you for watching. see you back here on monday at 5:00. but don't move, "options action" starts right after this break. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call today to request a free decision guide. with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients... plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp... and provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company,
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we're live at the nasdaq markets on a stunning day for stocks. so shocking, even mike is at a loss for words. while the guys are getting ready behind me, here is what is coming up. that is how some big traders are planning to beat the market. and we'll tell you the long-shot bets they see paying off. plus not sure what to do with your portfolio, we have a stock that could do well in up markets and down ones too. and here is a hint. >> here's johnny. >> we'll break it down. and chipolte shares continue to see pain as e-coli outbreak spreads and one analyst said it is about to get e.


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