tv Fast Money CNBC March 11, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
and to name a few, so, guys, make sure you don't miss it. i'll join you back here next week. >> be sure not to miss it. get better. >> thank you. thanks for joining us. michael, evan, that does it for us on closing bell. have a great weekend everybody. fast money begins right now. >> fast money does start right now. live from the nasdaq overlooking new york city's time square. tonight on fast the man who called the collapse is back. this time he has a shocking call where he sees oil going to next. he'll be here to explain. plus, donald trump taking aim at companies and could be weighing on stock prices. are there stocks going nowhere? we've got a way to make money on stocks doing just that. we are calling it reviving the dead and your money will never be the same. first we start off with the market that's been the hell and back. stocks posting their fourth
straight week. believe it or not they're almost flat on the year. are we in the clear? is it too late to participate in this upside? >> some names, absolutely. i'll say this, i never thought we would get here by march 11th. we're talking about 2025 by the time we got to the 1950 level. we're also here at 16.5. if you look back at the last 12-18 months, we're getting towards levels that the vicks doesn't like. what does that mean? it doesn't like to stay here that long. i think we would all agree that 220 points in the s&p in a month is assessive. is it late? i think it's a little bit late. yeah. >> even constructive on the markets, what do you do at this point? >> i said we're going to see a sell off. i think we've had a positioning rally. we've talked about that and had a massive short cutting rally to a lot of different sectors of
the tape. i think it's a sell here. look, i think we're overdone too far, too fast, i would be taking profits across the board. there's no sector i look at and say i want to step into at these leve levels. >> i will say sentiments aren't so horrible. the whole point that they're dead in the water when in fact there's year over year comps that are much better. i'm not telling you we're in an earnings expansion. that kind of mentality is the reason why the markets are going. >> i'm not saying there's no reason why the market can drift higher. i don't see this market running away. i think there's more down side risk than short term risk. >> i don't want to be painted in a corner here. even though i've been constructive on markets, i think markets are going sideways. right now, going into this meet where we have fed 16, dollar over sold, you're basically
20/30 which again the course of people that each time markets go higher have a new level to say this is the level by the way, but this is 2030 a key level for the markets. >> if you're talking about me, say it. i have said 2025 now. >> i'm not talking about you. i say if i read any technical guy out there, they're talking about 2030. there's been a lot of levels thrown around. >> if you're looking for reasons to sell the market, you can find them all the way up. i think we're in overbought conditions. >> here's the key to this. i think everybody on this desk was saying let's not press our shorts. now we're back up at 2025. i don't know if it goes to 2050. i have no idea. i know i don't want to be buying into a panic into a buy saying now i've got to get in. whether or not you agree with what the ecb did or not, the potential for the sector banks stepping away is there and the market has to be supported by earnings and you have to ask yourself will this market, these
evaluations and price be supported by earnings. i have to think at the very least whether you agree with me or somebody else you got to be five points. >> i think the person at home wants to know this. february 11th, something changed that enabled us to move that much higher. what is that? >> everything changed that day. >> at 2:30 in the afternoon that started it. post closed that day you had jamie saying he was buying however many shares of j.p. morgan. those three things, absolutely changed. >> and then conditions were so oversold, we were more embarrassed than people in march 2009. again, putting a credit, credit. oil and gas, energy, credit issues, no question. fed raising and ratcheting up liquidity conditions so it's getting tighter and tighter, i get that. to say we're in 2008, 2009
levels, i don't agree with. >> we still are at a 2008 type of situation when you're talking about deleveraging and a global deleveraging. >> u.s. banks are different. none of these three things change the big picture macro dynamics going on out there that are in the process. perhaps, perhaps the ecb what they did yesterday was a stealth bail out for the banks. that doesn't mean the operating environment is better. >> we're leaning more toward sales and the pressure put on the market early on. i think that's going to be a paste process. as long as oil actually does go much lower from this price, look, i don't think that's going to continue to the extent we saw in the first quarter. >> with the risk to reward down side, what do you know? >> i think it adds up your book. for the last couple of days i've been selling 30, 50, 70 base point positions in a lot of stocks that have a run. that includes things like coca-cola and mcdonald's that's
had huge runs. even though those are bunker stocks, i think there's a place to say these things get ahead of themselves. quantitative miss read. >> i think you got to stay with it. a 100% understand. you're talking about levels that made double tops at 44.5 or so. i think the risk reward is an easy trade. you're long here against 43.5. to me, it sets up interestingly. >> back in january the s&p had fallen 10% and bk said this. >> so, what do investors at home do? you stay in cash. if you have ridden this market up from 2008 and 2009 in your ira and 401k. >> that's if you're not cash. >> since the s&p fell 8% and then bounced back more than 10%. bk, what do you do? >> you stay in cash. >> i stick by that call. listen, the big picture here is
we're going through a goble deleveraging. in my view that's going to take a process that puts us in this bare market. my call is if you have made money since 2008 and you're a retiree and you're five years, 10 years, i can't speak to what everybody's doing but why wouldn't you take profits and be safe? this is an extremely dangerous environment. the macro environment hasn't changed. most professional investors i know are having a tough year this year. how is the home gamer going to have a better time? >> i think he's saying go to cash if you think at this point markets could get nasty and you've made some money. i disagree in that you can get to a place where people can be too cute in this market and we had such extreme headlines people didn't know what was right. i'm not saying brian was wrong about his assessment of the world because he was talking about this 6-9 months but you get to a place where markets were absolutely not a true read
on fundamentals. it happened in credit and energy and it's been painful. >> right. i would just adjust as much as 1810 maybe markets didn't reflect fundamentals there, they didn't reflect it up here either. that's why i stick by that call. if you're not in cash, there's nothing wrong with being that way. if you want to turn in the market and want to be aggressive, have at it. there's plenty of opportunities out there. >> where should equities be then? i'm not telling you i love 30 in the s&p but i have a big problem with 1810. >> my call the 1620 and that's a technical call based on what we've already done. i think we could go sideways. if we really get a massive deleveraging over the next couple of years and again, this is a multiyear call. if we get that then 1610 is going to look like an awful great place to sell stocks. >> next week we're at a few
simple banks. a lot of things can happen. >> cash call or no? >> i like cash call at this level and i do believe brian was pointing and talking to a group of investors that really need to preserve cash and i think at that level he made a decision to say that and i back him from that perspective but i look at the market here and say i believe we're fairly valued right now. when i say fairly valued my call has been flat in a year. right now as a whole equities in general are fairly valued. so over valued equities and energy got way too aggressive. they over shot and i think they can be over valued. >> coming up next, something has changed in the oil market as one of wall street's biggest fairs. throwing in the towel he'll tell us what that is and how he's playing through plus this man has a bone to pick with several companies and having a curious effect on their stock prices. the names that should be worried
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welcome back to fast money. the man who joined fast money in 2012 said this. >> the next 45 days are challenging for crude. we're going to see less demand for crude oil in the united states over the next few weeks or so. so i think that we haven't necessarily seen the lows. >> oil prices have rallied over 30% since then and oil jumped 7% this week alone hitting a new high for 2016. one of the street's biggest oil bares about to throw in a towel? the oil price service and co-founder joins us again. great to have you on the program. >> nice to be here. actually the next 45 days is going to be very dangerous for crude oil as well. i think we saw the bottom and that bottom was 26.05 or 26.10.
the problem is we made up the easy ground on what is going to be the road with a lot of hills and valleys. we started the year and the market behaved like the new york knicks. the last couple of weeks it's more like the golden state warrio warriors. somewhere in between is the market that's going to trade not much higher than $45 for the first half of the year. >> all right. so you just offended all the new york knicks fans. >> the brooklyn mets, let's put it how it is. >> putting that aside. $45. what sort of keeps you up? what could be the one wild card that could send us higher than that or lower for that matter? >> the wild cards that could send us higher is the wild card that sent us this high in the first place which is money flow. you had a tremendous volume that was put in brent and also had a lot of the short money covered this week in wti. so there's one thing i learned
in 2008 when we went to a hundred and i thought that was ridiculous and we got to 145 is that money can move the market far, far more than you think. i think it will be more temper at. we have a lot of crude oil out there and world supply probably about a million to a million and a quarter barrels a day more than demand. the scary thing about this week was the eia came out with numbers earlier in the week which were very bar rish talking about $37 million in 2017. maybe that was a kiss of death for the bare market. >> tom, we're going to leave it there. thanks for calling in. appreciate it. >> take care. >> okay. so a lot on the line there. we seen the worst of it. even with the surge, was $40 oil enough to save the number of oil stocks. let's play who lives and who dies? >> that's a good game. it's like the dead pool for
stocks. >> anyway. >> it's kind of morbid. >> let's start with the the drillers. >> oil topped out in 2014. along with the transit ports as it turns out and the stock traded in kind. we got on that probably early in 15 and said listen, you got to stay away. good chance trades $60, bottom dollar from a few years. i'm not right a lot but now we got this one right. here's a stock that trades 28 times forward earnings which is in my opinion a little too ridiculous. too far, too fast. i'm not saying it dies but the stock goes back down to 68. >> this particular sub sector of oil stocks have done extremely well in the past month. >> right and they did extremely poorly in the months before that. my point is we know where ground zero is. we know what the names are going to be. if we go lower, those types of
names are going to do poorly. my view is we trade 20-$40 for the next couple of years. these are the names that over that period of time are going to have a real tough time. >> we're talking names like pioneer natural, weatherford international. >> tim is talking frackers. i was looking more at the emp names. i look at the names and say there's a reflection point in oil. you look at $40 being a crucial level. i don't think people are paying attention to that. $40, what's the cash flow number that's going to be positive and allow them to cover the caps back? it's around 40-45. that needs to be sustained to be a little bit cash flow positive with no investment. i think that's an important point. if you make the argument oil is going to stay at 40 bucks, you can make the assumption that apache is not going to do well. you look at a name like noble
or -- they're going to do okay because 40-45 is the sweet spot for them. it's looking at cash flow and the inflection point. >> i need a fracker who lives or dies. anyone want to play? >> i tell you what, somebody like eog or a place like where you have these guys you talk about where you're going to live. the whole play here is that's why oil is not going back down lower. we price is all these guys. >> i need a fracker who lives or dies. >> chesapeake. chesapeake, i'm not saying shorter here. it's already gotten crushed. at $40 oil if it stays at this level or lower chesapeake dies because the higher oil prices. >> integrated oils, tim. >> i think they're interesting. they should trade, yes at a premium. chevron has gone from 45 billion
to 24 billion in cap backs. these guys have a balance to allow them not only to pay the dividend but be in a place where they're opportunitistic. they're someone in a position with a dividend unlike. >> how long is the dividend safe if it stays at 40? >> i think exon's dividend to 20 stays safe. they're best suited. i think exon at $82.5 on a day when it was up huge and the stock didn't move tells you maybe a 22 times forward earning is too expensive. >> still ahead one area of the market with a monster run in the past month. we'll take you behind the trade. you're watching fast money on cnbc. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> today's a good day to die. ♪ i, i just died in your arms tonight ♪ >> that's because we found a way to revive the dead stocks in your portfolio and make money
even if they flat line. we'll explain. plus are certain stocks getting trumped? >> who ever heard of a thing like that? >> well, donald, three companies you called out have since suffered dismal returns. we'll give you the names and see if they're worth adding to your portfolio when fast money returns. margaret and tom lee. the championship game ball? that was sebastian diaz. good guy. and all i had to do was ask for their money and pretend i was investing it. their life savings is now my lifestyle. female announcer: don't let someone else live the life you're saving for. find out if you're dealing with a registered investment professional at investor.gov. it's a great first step toward protecting your money. before you invest, investor.gov.
them out. the s&p up 7%. next up trump set back on november 18th he was never eating another oreo again ever, ever. since then, it's down 5%. last up, they called for a boycott and starbucks has fallen 8% since then. should you be concerned at all when donald trump lets loose on a stock that sits in your portfolio? >> i'm waiting for them to say they're going to boycott spray tan. that's not going to happen any time soon. >> you're never seating another oreo. >> the fact of the matter is they're expensive stocks. the reason they sold off is not
because the donald said he's not eating another double stuffed. we're in a place where you have a guy with a podium and mantle and shouting abunch of stuff and it's a market participate and a joke. it's ridiculous. >> if you're trading because of something trump said, hour, at some point this year, it will start to matter to guys point. people start factoring that in to their big picture market forecast. i've made some controversial calls and the one i stick by, i said oreo cookies are a staple model luxury. >> right on. that's clear. >> just quickly, as soon as donald trump mentions a stock. >> i think it's a problem whether it's donald trump, hillary clinton, anybody in politics mentions those names it's going to go sideways and none of them are going to be
good. >> let's shift gears a little bit. psa here. this weekend is daylight savings time. people turn their clocks forward. forward at 2:00 a.m. on sunday. in lieu of the final trade we're going to take a look at stocks set to spring ahead from here. tim, kick it off. >> these guys are stealing from the retailers online. they're stealing electronics. china has been sold off dramatically. >> universal display oead. the secret sauce in the new screen technology everybody's going after. >> nice sound. >>. >> for me, it's lockhead martin. >> win, win, win. got downgraded today and still up 2.5%. you think it goes to a hundred. >> your clock app automatically does that. automatically springs ahead. that does it for us.
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