tv Squawk on the Street CNBC April 13, 2016 9:00am-11:01am EDT
again. up more than $15 billion in 2015. extreming services offsetting declines in both cd and download sales. >> we have exactly six seconds, just enough time to say make sure you join us tomorrow. as for now, "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla along with jim cramer and david faber. this missed sales curbing the enthusiasm earlier this morning. ftse is at a new high for the year. beige book at 2:00 eastern time and a lot of debate about whether you trust oil as opec sees falling oil demand. our roadmap begins with jp more indian, beating the shares in the premarket.
jamie dimon making the headlines on the call this hour. >> five of the national banks do not have plans sthould there be a winddown. what does that mean? >> 40,000 verizon workers are on strike. first up, jpmorgan, better than expected first quarter results due in part to weakness in trading and investment banking. jamie dimon calling the results solid. he goes on to say, quote, the consumer businesses continue to grow loans and dposs impressively, attracting depo t deposits faster than the industry. they've shown some slides on delinquencies which continue to get better and better. >> right. but i think also we continue to forget there was a rate hike and one was great for them. you understand if we had
multiple, we'd talk about stocks going 66 to 70. i even been focused on oil and gas loans, and i've got to tell you we're now in a position where in the rear view mirror, the reserves, oils have gone up so much. remember they're going to be able to sell a lot of futures. look at all these deals. a lot of oil companies have raised the capital to make it not feel so badly about that line which is my principal worry. rate hike, not so wired. translates into a stock that's not down. >> you know, a number of weeks ago they provided their latest trading and investment numbers, i think it was six weeks ago. then they seem to have had a very good march and so a lot of the numbers i'm looking at, equities trading revenue, expectations may be $1.3 billion, they did $1.5 billion. now all these numbers are down year over year but they're not
as down as had been anticipated particularly given the numbers people were working off of from six weeks ago at least and the tenor of the investment day meeting. >> were you surprised march was that good? >> yes. >> it was also gloomy in the month of mar march. they were just making money. >> i know. i don't know what would have been going on in march that would have had it stronger than -- well, you had the equity markets rebounding dramatically and high yields starting to come back to the land of the living, so there you go. >> you're right. there were a bunch of -- not to be so revel torrey. resales were down in the dumps. home depot is doing okay because we're raining and getting ready for planting season. >> we were looking for positive 0.1.
it's cars, clothing, eating out. >> it's incredible. >> and the ppi number was the icing on the -- the cherry on that sundae. >> now you say to yourself, okay, yellen -- janet yellen, the fed chair, is a little more of a visionary than you think. do we really raise rates when retails are down? isn't that when you cut rates? i'm just saying the scenario is not that advantageous for another rate hike right now. >> right. i do see a note that january's control group sales figure was revised up 0.2. so you have a 0.1 up in february and that offsets the 0.3 sales in march. >> regardless, not a single month in q1 had it. >> as soon as the china data came up -- it was as soon as the data came out because i've about
had problems sleeping lately. they say, listen, don't believe in the 11% increase in exports. i didn't believe it. i was looking for 7%. i don't believe in the countershift. i don't care. we underrate -- we're going to talk about living wills. will you just listen to me? >> yeah. >> the banks are going to be able to get rid of the bad loans. what percentage do you think italy has? >> 80% to 90%. >> you make me feel bad. the 33% number was going to be so good. but he does it to me. >> is it 33%? >> yeah. >> of what? 90-day delinquent? >> europe is really hostage to italy and all i'm saying is 25% of the imports in europe come from china. you see once again no one wants to believe that iron ore has bottomed or that anything good comes out of china.
i see iron ore, aluminum trying to catch a bottom and copper. i don't want to paint too big of a picture but it's china driving the market, not retail sales, inflation, or jpmorgan. and china is better. i know no one wants to believe it. what are, they invading iowa. >> the political issue of the south china sea is an snooish they're growing their air force. >> are they growing as we're shrinking? >> we're not shrinking. they had eight nations up below us and it does not equal that. >> that's not the case anymore. we're far from shrinking. >> okay, okay. >> jim mentions living wills. big story today on page one of the journal. the fed and the fdic say boa and
others do not have credible plans for winding doubt operations during a crisis without government money. they say they did have shortcomings and raising concerns again about what happens if something seriously bad happens. >> i try to put a bit of a positive spin equal to what the market is telling me. it flurnged two grades, so it might have been fifth grade, they send it back to third grade. one of those professional flunkings. i like the fact that they raise a lot of capital, they're doing a lot of things right. they're off the endangered list. they still have a lot of room. the book value there is dramatically higher. it tells me the book value is real and that tells me what's important. the city because it's much more leavered to perhaps growth oversees, leavered to a lot of the global environment has a lot
more going for it. everything i'm hearing wells -- you can't really translate anything jpmorgan does. >> you can't. >> i wanted to circle back. their net margin was 2.3%, roughly in line with what the street was expecting. you're saying don't take it. >> i see regionals running for a bid there. >> not that jpmorgan is looking for it. >> it could reverse. our markets shouldn't be up as much as these other markets. >> i'm thinking back to the ubs initiation of wells talking about energy portfolios, auto portfolios. >> donald trump didn't fall off a turnip truck, right? not that i have a man crush.
some banks would choke. >> you do, on him. >> it's a seasonally low time. everything is intact. >> they're so far behind in the market. look at cater bill lar, i fear the living will news is going to make it so they can't raise the dividends like they'd like to. i keep thinking about jamie dimon and his annual. i know that most of the utilities do not have to raise nearly as much capital and i keep poking the banks so they can turn it to dividends. >> right. i'm glad you drew the connection to return of capital. a lot of people hear living will and they say why do you care about something. >> do you have one? >> i do. but i haven't looked at it in a very long time. >> i used to think the city would be dnr, do not resuscitate. now it's got a number of years to make that decision. >> it's a checkup.
you know. in oregon, they'll let you voluntarily die. they're not an oregonian bank. >> understood, understood. they'll eliminate the estate tax. >> let me let you in an-on-a real secret. >> yes, sir. >> you will not have to worry about the state tax. >> i'll be gone. >> he seems to know everything i don't know. maybe gheets a line on that two. >> one thing i talk about, look at him. when we come back, tens of thousands of verizon employees on the picket line this morning. we'll get the ratest on the strike. the stocks are up across the board. the only stock negative for the year. and we're going for our first back-to-back gains for april. more "squawk on the street" from post 9 in a minute. y do we have. aflac...
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other states including the district of columbia. health care costs and pensions are the sticking points. they've trained thousands of nonunion employees to fill in since the walkout. they haven't had a contract. one of the biggest strikes they've ever had. >> they try to put them all together. and vios, you never deal with a union when you have problems. think they want to go vios. >> it does seem as though the tensions between them and their work force come and go all the time. their unionized work force. >> do they want to bust the union? >> i don't know. i don't know the answer to that. >> obviously verizon has done so
well here. when you look at the iphone seven. if they keep the costs down, they're going to continue to be the yield play of choice, and i think that's important because utilities -- it used to be the bank. i don't want to miss reed th mi. right now we're stuck with verizon and dominion. we need to see banks as yield plays the way they used to be. maybe that can still happen. >> verizon is to your point a yield play and has benefitted from that and been a very strongly performing stock. >> we're having conversation bs regulatory pressures and living wells. do you think we're in an environmental where they're commonplace? >> no. i think the fdic is driving this living will. i'm just saying that the banks are in a position -- i would say they're really just to return a lot of
they get a lot of capital. >> do you think you could get up that high? >> i don't know. >> maybe. i guess it wouldn't take that much. >> i'm giving a talk tonight for bucknell. i come back and i just want to talk about verizon because it's got great yield. we haven't gotten to facebook. facebook messenger, maybe that's a way to make it so verizon is not significant but my verizon bill is bigger than my tax bill, my mortgage. >> your what? >> my mortgage, my real estate taxes. >> your real estate taxes. not your annual income taxes. i thought, that is quite a bill. >> no. i'm a new york resident and a new jersey resident. tell me how that happens. maybe i shouldn't get married. ooh. >> she doesn't watch. you're okay. congratulations. >> it's so great she doesn't watch. it really gives me a lot of freedom. >> it really is. >> you mentioned one thing is
zuckerberg's comments yesterday. they swiped at donald trump, a ten-year plan looking at their long-term goals whether it's a.i., con negatively, the bought economy which the "washington post" today says they resemble the annual economy circa '09. >> there was an existential -- i don't want to say steve's got it in for apple. i would point out that one of the things i always wanted was to be able to message to find out which is the best deal rather than have to go through amazon. amazon is so easy. listen, i got the wing tips for $118. these are the rokrockport tips since i was an endorser. >> right. i remember that. >> i'm trying to get them cheaper. did you do the gap, too, or no? >> they wanted me to but i was under contract.
>> okay. >> i would say the idea under which that happened impressed me. remember they match them with the 15 million facebook pages. >> right. >> the only one that has really been successful, i felt, is dominos. they've already kind of done it themselves. this is very important and i think that they shouldn't -- usa played it up very good. >> it's huge. top of the fold of s"usa today." you have to assume all the growth prospects for google and facebook go according to plan, otherwise, they're 10% oval you. >> they go above plan. they're wiping everybody else out. bob has a terrific note. yahoo! -- yahoo!'s like sears. >> they're not in the game. >> right. >> the big game in terms of taking it is facebook and google. >> it's 9:15 and i hadn't
mentioned sears. >> true. >> you're supposed to mention kmart. i don't know anyone -- you know, this would be like if tesla actually sold a lot of cars and you would see their impact. i mean these guys are just taking shares from everyone. and this facebook live, it's a chattel. >> it's true. we talk about the rise of artificial intelligence and my concerns. i've gotten that out of the way. >> that's true. he's just a simulation. he's just a simulation of me. >> we all have our worries. becky's is credit fraud. david's is a.i. >> and i'm worried they i'm a simulation of david. >> that's good. you don't need to worry about your will or anything else because you're just a simulation. >> do you think i'm a hologram? >> people will ask at the end of your life, are you for real? did you exist? >> i had a mom. >> we'll take a look at jim cramer's "mad dash."
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all right. hump day, eight minutes before the opening bell. >> david, we could do the valeant show, just on valeant. >> yep. >> we have the center bridge, whether that's significant, the testimony, what that means. >> as you say, every day there's something else. now, remember they reached agreement with their bank, last week, valeant, to forestall any default or technical default as
a result of them not having their 10 k. >> right. not out of the woods though. >> center bridge, which may own as much as quarter million dollars worth of bonds, they're not in default until they don't get their 10k out by the 29th of april. if they don't, they would be. and then you've got trouble. it always puts them in a position of contesting extractions. you'd buy the stock and then you're playing both sides. ooh, they're going to go into default. >> why wouldn't you short this. >> we know the stocks are going to go up. you can make more on your stock holding than your bond holding. >> what bothers me here -- they've come out and say they have to divest things. points out, they cown't sell bausch & loam for the price they got it.
why doesn't it go away? do we keep coming back to that? >> yes, i think so. it's not a question of the real company and their terms of not just sustaining that debt load but generate any sort of growth outside of that to be able to pay interest on that debt, jim. also still in the mix is the new ceo. who is going to want to work for bill ackman because that's who you're working for. >> i'm going to leave you to ponder that because i want to talk about more debt and sprint. now that fry port mcrand has been going up, sprint has become problematic. they're calling it a tactical shortage. it's like when you had a buy, buy, buy. this is a sell, sell, sell. they're saying there is light at the end of the tunnel but it is an oncoming train and they're questioning the disclosure. now, sprint already has that giant plan that everybody is supposed to want. but t-mobile decided if john was
going to release the guns on sprint and not just dumb and dumber, i question whether they -- where's the money going to come from to pay that debt? >> you know, listen. they're not going to be putting any new money in, they have done a lot of things to move money offer. they don't have any maturities that are of a great worry. are they saying the train is the light that's going to hit you? >> i'm still focused on csx and the conference to focus on the train. but, david, this common stock seems like a call-up but not more than that. >> that's all it's been. that's all it will be for quite some time to come. if they're right and the churn is up, that's not good for them. >> the money call. >> is that what you put it out at, the money call? >> i don't know.
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you're watching cnbc's "squawk on the street," live with opening bell. we're going to open on the s&p close to the highest close of the year. earnings-wise, we've gotten alcoa under our belts, jpmorgan and now csx from last night where coal volumes were down 31, jim, although, they made it up with pricing in other areas. >> i was looking at csx versus last quarter. there's only two that are favorable, automotives and minerals. so these continue to deteriorate, but you know what?
we saw a kind of belief that somewhere if you really go down, there's a bid underneath all these railroads and you know what that bid is. it's canadian pacific. who wants to work for bill ackman. csx is always rumored. i don't think this government is going to allow any more takeovers in railroads but there's a new rail coming. >> the big board, flowers foods, producers of packaged bakery foods like wonder and tasty cake, hello. over at the nasdaq, denmark hosting the danish biotech conference. you mentioned rails. it's believed it's not gone. >> antitrust seems to have woken up. i think the next anti-trust department might have -- remember, everything that happens now is kind of rear view
mirror for anti-trust. if you make a deal with rails, you're going to be dealing with a new administration. on an earnings basis, coal is -- boy, coal really disappeared quickly, when you think about it. natural gas, solo, war on coal, no place to put coal. it's a story we don't talk about enough. there was a piece on yale, derisking, getting out of fossil fuels. this is going to be a continued theme. millennials hate fossil fuels almost as much as they hate cosmetics and iphones. >> that brings us to btu, chapter 11. largest filing in commodities since prices began falling in 2014. just incredible. >> i remember during the -- there were some pieces -- not that long ago peabody was talking about the coal super cycle like the fracking super psych. . when you hear super cycle unless
it's related to soulcycle, run for cover. >> when was the coal super psc e cycle? >> 2011. iron had a super cycle. everything had a super cycle including whirl poole. >> bill gross likes to talk about a credit super psych. >> when you hear super cycle, really, let's put an end to the term "super cycle." it's just always wrong. always. let's bury the term. >> okay. we've got an initiation of chipotle, under performing. they say comps may recover but don't expect margins to recover even with inflation and protein. they've got marketing costs, wage increase and inflation increase continue to rise. >> i say yum! came back.
yum! came back when it was kfc in china, whether it be taco bell in the u.s. with e. coli. remember jack in the box came back after four deaths and many people who had serious injuries. so the idea of selling chipotle here, i think chipotle has -- you know, every time it gets to 400, the company's been quiet. the company's been quiet. >> they sure have. big debate on oil. b of a says don't buy it ahead of doha. they' they're underestimating it. >> almost everyone wants to short oil into the doha meeting. remember, when oil was at $26 in february f you look at the -- at what caused that bottom, it was the chatter about this meeting. so could the meeting ever live up to this hype? that is the question. will the russians? i hear the saudis may not be there. this is one of those meetings where it's kind of like a
shangri la. will russia be there? will saudis cooperate? meanwhile they're putting out full oil. a lot of the producers don't have the capital. remember when chasen came here and he said i'm not buying any of these guys because they have $80 oil? >> yeah. >> we're seeing -- i saw yesterday. when mro sold those wyoming properties -- mro, there was a big downgrade today. it's important to recognize rice energy has a giant deal -- i'm sorry. will thei isis issueances keep working. right now you're up if you've got sthok on the deal >> shares of netflix up. he says nearly 20 million net
streaming sub ads in to 16. not resembling the likes of an hbo or showtime but more eakin to a bundle of programming but it's being bundled at the content level as opposed to by the network providers or the channel network providers. interesting thesis. >> yeah. i've been looking at the market capital. >> he thinks he's going have them domestically. >> time warner stole appreciably higher. there was a note today, by the way. disney studios doing pretty well. you're supposed to immediately hear if they're doing well, other than the mow mojis, i don know if people do that. time warner is doing pretty well but netflix is behind of late. >> yep. $46 billion and the stock is still down this year.
of course, it has a far higher multiple. it doesn't own a movie studio but it pays for a lot of content. >> i believe they watch their content. that's something we do. we don't talk about it because you may be ahead of me in house of cards. >> survey this week that for the first time netflix has surpassed hbo. among people who judge who has the best original content. >> you know, hbo, they spun that out. maybe that would be something they would have to refer to. they kept it. >> they believe strategically it makes sense being aligned with everything else. it would be warner and hbo that would go together. >> right. >> they do -- >> stock is up 13 straight points since that analyst meeting where everyone was concerned about the -- remember that meeting where everyone was concerned about growth? that turned auto to be a fabulous time to buy. i know jeff bewkes was signaling that. that was a great american call.
>> how about the check that cbs is writing for march madness, an extension for eight years. >> another $8.8 million. >> tbs also. through 2032. that's long-term planning. >> isn't that? >> the joke is who knows what -- are we going to be watching it vr? are we going to watch it courtside? >> handheld. >> 2032. >> how many times can villanova win between now and 2032 and make it exciting? i don't know. >> yeah. you'll just be a bot watching it. >> i'm a bot? i'm a simulation? am i anything to you? >> you'll be marching around with those goggles on. zuckerberg will be in your head telling you what to do or zuckerberg simulation. >> all i can say is by now jp missouri began would have sold off. it's getting stronger. >> which means what, jim? >> means they're looking for -- >> you're right.
jpmorgan up almost 4% along with bank america, citi, goldman, morgan stanley, actually, which has been the worst perform e one of the worst performers this year. >> if citi has a good performer -- remember, this living will does not refer to return of capital. but when i look at vilk stocks, i'm kind of surprised jpmorgan is not selling off. >> at this point it would be the highest close for the s&p and the dow. let's get to bob pisani on the floor. good morning, bob. >> we have two factors moving the market today, carl. one is banks and the other is the china data. the china data is very, very important because the expectations were much lower here. let me show you what happened. exports were up 11.5%. that is a stronger read than expected. most were about 10% and the imports were down less than expected. a lot of the estimates were down about 10%. this is in dollars. the important thing is over in
asia and in china, they look at this in terms of rinne imby. exports up 18%. so the way the chinese look at it, these numbers were particularly strong overall. this ignited a real rally in asia. tll was a real bit of a short rally in hong kong. hang seng up 3%. that's very unusual. this has ignited a rally in europe, particularly in the materials sector, industrial sector. trading over in europe. rio tinto, glyn corp, that's a is in move. bank storrs as well. it's not exactly built into the
markets. people were surprise by this. remember the volatility. the fed, the dollar, oil, and china. the fed's been a little quieter, the dollar has been a little quieter. we're not sure if there's a bottom in oil but a lot of people are starting to believe it may have been the bottom. the other big volatility question has been china. if we get better than expected china data, that will be another source that will sort of move to the side a little bit, certainly be a major, major factor. the other important point, of course, is all the banks. the beat was a little better than skbektd. doesn't matter that some of it was on trading. still have net interest margins. okay, not great. we want them better. long growth was modest but it was good enough. remember, i've called these banks zombies all year. it's been a terrible year for them that they not only have real significant loan growth or modest loan growth.
low interest rates means nobody's interested in owning them. they're below book value and, of course, ten times forward. jp missouri began is trading at 10 times the forward earnings right now. you can just take a look here. the s&p 500 is up fractionally for the year, but look at the bank group. down 10.2%. those are the major banks down 10%. jpmorgan was down 10% going into the earnings for the year. my point is underloved, under owned, underappreciated. it's about time they started picking at that, and you can see that happening today. i don't see much more upside. but there's clearly get a little more widely owned. finally we're getting a modest new break, not a lot. it's interesting to see them hit new industrials. illinois tool works, rockwell
collins, becton dickinson. no, it's not new heise, but definitely keep an eye if this trend continues, we'll have some definite breakouts. back to you. >> thank you very much, bob pisani. let's get to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli. good morning, rick zbhood morning, carl. we had two pieces of information that were key this morning. we had the gdp interpreted by the atlantic gdp but also for the lack of pricing and lack of productivity and environmental. look at the intraday of two-year. you can see the volatility and if you go to the far end, you can see the volatilities show up as well. maybe the most important chart is it will is ooh go to the area
of the chart, the fulcrum of the curve that most pay attention to, that's the five-year. if you look at it -- and you can see it on all charts, whether it's boons or treasuries, we're holding some key areas. this is significant. you can see it the 112, 114 area. if you look at what is the poster child for risk-on/risk-off, you can see where we're ready to clear the zone. nice barometer. pay close attention to that. we might be in the sweet spot for a while if you want to call it that. all the growth numbers pretty much set in stone. look at what they're doing. it's all about the dollar/yen and in the last couple of days it's finally making a comeback. look at how much of a bounce we've had. the ante of this game has gone up.
look at how fast and progressive in percentage terms the slip of the dollar was. if you want to open that chart up to march of 2014, the important -- i'm sorry. we're switching gears. i like charts. let's look at a crude chart. i want to weigh in hire. open it up to march of '14. now, this is technically a breakout. call it the counter waive structure, three waves. we took out the peak area, and that was right around march 17th, and that closing price, and this is important. on a closing basis if we hold that level, this should gain more momentum with a technical fouling. it's an easy one. mid-march high. most likely that's what a lot of capital preservationists out there will be doing. carl, whack to you. >> rick, we'll talk to you in a few. rick santelli in chicago. when we come back, highlights from jpmorgan's
the jpmorgan earnings call. we have the latest from will fred frost. >> from the commodities space, it was 7% hire. if we're look for reasons for why the stock is rallying, they guided for the year ahead. they could take an extra $500 million. that's for all three of the next quarters. that guidance a little better
than expected but they say that's a variable number that could change as energy prices change moving forward. the investment bank side down. that's a pretty big decline. on the deal side, the m & a side of it, they say that could continue for a quarter or two. however, again, looking for positives, the market's performance within it. a headline decline. jamie dimon did indeed say give him the quarter they had. not too bad. they say march was better. april has started in a similar vein though they don't want to be too confident. they remain caution. markets certainly better than the deal side of thing. now, living wills, it came up quite a lot. they'll continue to work with regulators on it. but the bottom line coming from jamie dimon in this quote.
>> the liquidity of the company is extraordinary. we have $400 billion from central banks around the world, $300 billion in securities, just about $300 billion in top quality repo and stuff like that. the trading book is $300 billion, which is mostly very liquid kind of stuff. so it's -- the liquidity coming in is extraordinary. >> so the liquidity coming in, extraordinary. the investors focusing on the earnings as opposed to that living will story coming out erp ler today and that's highlighted by the strong rally. and, of course, jpmorgan one of five that failed that living will test this morning and that's why it hasn't been hit too much by that part of the story today, guys. >> thank you very much. wilfred frost from hq. you've hung onto the early gains.
>> yeah. it seems they go up every time the call goes on. it's like they expect the call to be terrible. that month of march was so much better. it's giving people hope and dragging a lot of stocks up that perhaps should not be dragged snup example. >> there are very few bangs that have the training vision that jp missouri began has. very few have a big loan division. i feel like you're at wells fargo and you're bank of america, you're saying, oh, man, i don't know if you have it. i think that puts a lot of pressure on them when it's typically been the other way. >> meanwhile alcoa which didn't get all the love yesterday gets some today. >> back to where it was. right before reported and the stock went down. look. i think that china is aluminum, china is steel. look at u.s. steel. china is copper. the china story's just going unnotic unnoticed. the chen's at 360 yesterday.
no one wants to believe. the stocks want you to believe. look at caterpillar. don't forget, they have a giant elevator business. >> they do. lotus. >> and honeywell. >> yeah. >> every smart guy so to speak will say short cat, short cat. they're buried alive under caterpillar and they're doing a jimmy hoffa thing with those guys, they're under a stadium somewhere. cat's now 20 bucks higher than the january 20th low this year. >> yeah. pound sand cat haters. >> dow's up 135. don't go away. i'm vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. vern from voya? yep, vern from voya. why are you orange? that's a little weird. really? that's the weird part in this scenario? look, orange money represents the money you put away for retirement.
health thing. i think the company doesn't tell its story well enough. i point out when people like it, be careful. i've been wrong. i've said that three times. i believe in the company but i think at a certain point the health and wellness story will come through and it won't be such a gimmick. people believe this apple iwatch -- apple watch is going to kill fitbit and it costs a lot more money than the fitbit. it does. i charge it. you talk about how often you have to charge it. i charge it -- i try to charge it every night. i didn't charge it last night but it's like timex. >> you haven't fallen out of love with it. >> no, i haven't fallen out of love with it. >> it's a miracle it's still holding after 12 hours. >> i used it for to wake up thi morning. >> that's great. i use an alarm clock.
>> i'm hooked up to it. no. it's great. you ought to try it some time. >> what's on "mad" tonight? >> i've gone dan dimicco. just want to talk about fairness. i think he's the for most person who understands trade as far as nucor and what it means. >> we'll see you tonight. >> absolutely. >> "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. when we come back more sper speck turf. dow's up 126. don't go away. those new glasses?
(dad laughs) wow, you're laughing. that's not the way the world works. well, the world's changing. are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management, at charles schwab. good wednesday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and simon hobbs and.
sara eisen. along with timothy adams and u.s. chairman. we cannot wait for that. in the meantime the markets are hanging onto gains despite a decline in oil. jpmorgan and banks. adding some 40 points to the dow. let's get to rick santelli with breaking news on inventories. rick. >> february read on business inventories was expected to be down just a bit. and it delivered. it's down one-tenth. minus one-tenth means it's kind of wild. you have them down last year of 0.1% as well. you have to go back to january of last year to figure down 0.2%. a little bit surprising. now inventories weak but weak as
expected. carl, back to you. >> thank you very much. rick santelli. shares of jp missouri began as you said leading after prokts fell but beat expectations. paul, it's good to see you again. good morning. >> good morning. >> what can we ex-strap late from bank earning season? >> so many people negative on bank earnings. they hit a single and the stock is up because of thachlt there's so much negativity. even my numbers, they're beating me up and my estimates were way too high and they came in and hit my estimates. i think there's a lot of negative especially on credit costs, lower and what not. you're seeing good results from it. i think you're going too see most banks report the same thing. there's a lot of negativity out there right now on bank expectations. >> to the degree that the land
scape changes marginally, where is the focus of the upside risk? >> you know, nii is coming in much better than i thought. there's blass sheet coming in that's better than we thought. for jpmorgan, their net interest margin was up which is higher than we had anticipated. you're talking a net interest margin of 2% for most of the last couple of years on jp missouri began, now at 2.3 as they pushed out some deposits, there was a drag out there. so there is some positiving out there, but we're not out there saying we don't think the fed's going to raise rates. a lot has been pulled out of the banks and that's where some of this negativity has come from. a lot of people worry about higher provisions. jpmorgan put out higher provisions and we're going to expect it across the board. but we don't think the energy credits is going to be that big of a deal for these banks. >> paul, as far as the improvement is concerned, is
jpmorgan benefitting from the very large cash balances that a large number of its clients clearly have because the impression we were getting not the least from jpmorgan is they really didn't need those as much as they used to. >> there's a lot of liquidity out there. some is a drag on the interest margin, so, therefore, they're getting a lot of the positive, which is a good thing. and yet they don't have the economic growth and loan growth to put the deposits to work. jpmorgan a year ago said they're going push some of the noncore deposits out, and they did. some have not taken that step. they say we're going to sit on it and we know it's going to be drarks but we think for the long run it's going to be good for our institution. how other banks play it out is interesting. >> more broadly, paul, on the strength of the consumer, dimon says they're in good shape but retail sales are disappointing and it's been that way for
months. who's right? are they truly at odds, dimon and the macro data? >> i do think there's a lot in terms of recession and retail side. loan growth is still a positive, not a negative. so, you know, i'm with jamie dimon's camp. i don't see a lot of negativity. i think we're going to trudge through it but i don't think there's a big bull that we're going have growth. i think it will be the 1% to 2% growth. nothing -- not driving a lot of growth but i i don't think on the negative side detracting from it either. >> as we look at it, is that just kind of tinkering with fair value and where they should be after the recent falls that we had or is this the start of maybe a major inflection? >> no. i think it's just a -- i think it's gaining some of the pullback that we receive in the first quarter. we were getting nervous about
bank earnings being too high in december. but in january and february, a lot of people pulled down bank earnings expectations, so they became very low and the banks traded along with it. i just think this is a bounceback from the weak expectations people had in the banks. i don't think it's a flexion point at all. >> we've got to a lot more to get through in the next couple of days. paul miller, banking analyst over at fbr. sara? five of the biggest banks have failed the living will test. we've been following the details on this one. kayla, how big of a deal is this? >> it's a pretty big deal. six years from the implementation of dodd/frank and still half of the banks have objected. they haven't done so in a thorough enough manner, authorities have said today. the plans that were outright objected to were -- worth noting plans from morgan
stanley and goldman sachs, they had flaws but the agencies didn't say whether to reject them. they have until october 1st to address the shortcomings and if they fail to do so they could be forced and havely. s placed on their growths. they told reporters, some, quote, difficult choices may be necessary to comply and while no two banks' issues were exactly the same, some were around derivative exposure, governance and capital positions. jp missouri began and jamie dimon as you were discussing this morning said they would do everything possible to fix the problem but highlighted the capital position. others in a similar boat made similar comments to that end. citigroup as you said was the only one to receive no objection. so in victory laps ceo michael
corbat has said -- but this is the second time in recent years the majority of banks' living wills have been rejected. most passed the fed's stress test. now the question is how much are the regulators moving the goalpost, simon, as we get farther and fartherer from the crisis, from dodd francht regulators say we should have a strivgter standard and we should be getting better at this. nevertheless, they're figuring it out as they go. simon? >> interesting that they figure it out. for the moment there, thank you very much. kayla tausche. next on the program, stocks extending their rally. drifting toward all-time highs. where does this momentum take us. "squawk on the street" will be right back. what if it were your job to make the world a more beautiful, colorful place?
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hey, mike. >> it's been in this stalemated position. in fact, for the past six trading sessions the high for the day has been between 2060 and 2070. on the s&p 500 we got above that today. now the question is this finally some kind of break or at least kind of an upward drift to those old highs. i'm going to lay out some bullish factors and bearish factors. on the bullish side you have the underpinnings based on the oil resurgence as well as the dollar coming arch, those things, of course, related and the credit markets have stabilized pretty nicely. unclear if the market is fully priced in expectations of the company beating those earnings but it does seem as if the bar is low enough to have room for the prizes. i would say investor sentiment remains cautious. i don't think people are panicky or outright fearful. they definitely have not brought in an emotion. you've seen that with high cash
levels at professional money management firms. that kind says, hey, we're in a decent position. on the bearish side of things, we've rallied right up into the level. in fact, going back to february of last year, we firsted 2100 in the s&p 500. it's beenhard to get above and stay above that level. valuations not really that friendly right now. we're back up to the highs on the market p.e. in general. that's something you cannot feel like it's a bargain right now. defensive stock sectors have recently been leading the way. it's not been about the real cyclical economic tag tors. it's been consumer staples, utilities, bond-like stocks. they're must-reads. let e's bring in mike.
where do you think the market goes from here? >> i think mike hit it pretty well. it's going to be a mix of constructive as well as concerning issues about the market. as well, we'll be able to break through the kind of resistance levels we've come up against a few times. i think it ee goijs to be one of those grinding fashions where there are going to be gains made but it's going have to be in the way you engage your markets. >> why would you buy the market now, mike? what would be the reason? what are you looking forward to the in the next six to 12 months? >> certainly mike touched upon it and paul, i think the bar is set way too low for corporate earnings. i know paul was talking specific annuals. we're going to have profits down. think that bar is set way too low. i also think what we're going to see in the second half is some of the headwinds we've really been confronted with in terms of the corporate profit picture has
faded. remember, with the market fully valued and the fed now largely playing a pragmatic game, it's going to be about corporate profits and power markets from here. >> i want to mention where we are before we move on to annika on evaluation. we're still at 17, 18 times expected earnings. you might say that those earnings are low, but even on that basis, we're quite highly priced, aren't we? >> well, firstly, i would argue that we're more in a fear value rank than excessive. we're nowhere near the expensive valuations. i would argue that markets are in the more value range. i think it's going depend on the market growth in second half of the year. >> annika, let's talk about where we are with the economy. we got an important snapshot, one of which has drafted it. this time around, disappointing, 0.3% drop. auto, clothing, internet, and
restaurants. where are we with the economy and the consumer, do you think? >> it's a good question because if you look at top line retail sales today it was disappointing. if you look a little deep sbeer that report, the control group actually posted a positive reading and so we do think we'll get somewhere close to a 2% overall pace the first quarter growth even if first quarter growth is barely in positive territory. there are some positive signs still in the u.s. economy even if real gdp growth is negative or barely positive. we, of course, see labor market conditions continue to improve. >> one of the positives in the market, mike, last year, was the
activity in corporate deal making. i'm wondering if you think the treasury's recent actions to crack down on inversions is going to have a long-term ripple effect not just on inversion deals but deal making general this year. >> i certainly think it's going to have some impact. obviously any time you set off one, that is going to cast some repricing across the market. what i'm more concerned about is not just the rule about inversions but also extensions of what the department is looking to do with how they can handle their profits from foreign affiliates. i think the bigger issue is we need to see broad-based reform. we continue to keep tackling some of the effects of what i think is a fundamentally broken tax code. >> the other question i have, anika, i'm here in washington.
they're going to be talk about about the world global growth problems. they downcast it to 4.3%. who is the growth engine? is it the u.s. consumer who continues to disappoint? i know you mentioned the retail sales already but can they really prop up the entire world when it comes to growth right now? >> when you look at u.s. domestic demand, it is moving in the right direction. even if you look at eurozone growth, it is still positive. and we're getting gradual increases. now, a lot of the focus has been on china and diplomatic rat downward adjustment in chinese real gdp growth. but even in china, even though it gets a lot of negative headlines, the service sector continues to increase much faster than what they're calling the secondary industries which is their construction and their manufacturing. a lot of the weakness even in
china is concentrated on the secondary sectors which is also impacting the u.s. >> anika, before we let you go, can you help out with what's measured on the gdp? the new york feds have announced it's going to announce the gdp like the atlanta fed. they're talking about currently maybe zero growth for the first quart quarter. what's going on behind the scenes with you that measure this stuff? >> sure. when you look at now cass and that's where the industry is moving this idea of every economic indicator giving a sense of where real gdp will be, it really depends on the underlying logic of how you calculate that. so for example its retail sales
control group one particular desk may say it's going the have larger impact than another. our gdp measure is 0.1% for your the first quarter which is consistent with the atlanta fed. go think there could be measurement issues, season alt problems, whether you think it's season alt or whether you think it's true that first quarter growth has been low and the remaining three quarters have been much higher. >> and it's worth pointing out, anika, that the atlanta fed has been pretty good recently which is your own assertion there which is why people say that. anika khan from wells fargo and mike ryan joining us from ubs. coming up, more than 40,000 verizon workers on the picket line. we're live when we come back on "squawk on the street." nage with expertise and conviction. so you can invest with more certainty.
retail sales. that's better than the expectation. keep in mind the stock is down still 25% over the last 12 months. so, again, harley-davidson certainly a move never today's news. back over to sara eisen at our nation's capitol. >> dom, thank you. thousands of verizon workers are on strike after failing to reach a union agreement. mary thompson is live. good morning, mary. >> reporter: good morning, sara. there were a couple of hundred workers here protesting. all across the eastern part of the united states from massachusetts to virginia there were workers outside of verizon facilities protesting after workers walked off the job at 6:00 a.m. 39,000 verizon wire line workers angry that after nine months of talks, a contract was not reached between the unions and verizon. the union rep telling cnbc, this
strike is about preserving good jobs and giving workers their fair share. >> this company made $1.5 billion a month last year in prophets. this year 1 president $8 billion in profits. it's time to share that with these workers. >> reporter: they make an average of over $130,000 a year including benefits and that it's offered a 6.5% pay raise. they say it's basically a wash because they've agreed to cuts in their health care benefits. there are sticking points. first of all the pensions. verizon wants to freeze them after 30 years of service in call center jobs. they want to meevg these jobs overseas. verizon says it needs changes to old contracts in order to serve their clients better. here's verizon's bob mudge.
>> we want to amend some of those rules so we can be more competitive. >> reporter: mudge has said to prepare for delays in customer service. there is going to be some disruption as they get up to speed on working full time here. as for the talks, no plans right now to resume them. verizon says it's ready to return to the negotiating table when the union is as well. back to you, carl. >> big story, mair. thank you very much. our mary thompson. when we come back, mark zuckerberg stepping into the mr. it cal debate, taking a dig at donald trump. donald trump's spokeswoman joins us to respond when we come back. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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joo. good morning, everyone. i'm sue her ray rah. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. police have arrested a man they believe was involved in providing arms to terrorists in the paris attack. he was arrested in a southern coastal town on tuesday along with a serbian and a monta nay gran. u.s.-led coalition fighter jet jets struck isis. it sits along an isis supply line along territory controlled by extremist groups between iraq and syria. defense secretary ashton carter witnessing the remains
from a crash. they were handed over at an indian air force base in new delhi. some amazing video out of mississippi. security camera video showing a roof collapse at a prep school in jackson. the school officials were mopping up water from leaks in the roof when it suddenly gave way dumping hundreds of gallons of water. unbelievably and quite fortunate fortunately nobody was hurt. that's the news for this hour. we're going to go to jacky ie deangelis. hi, jackie. >> hi. this wasn't a surprise after the big build we got last night. this kind of set them in a bearish mode when it comes to oil prices. remember, people were looking for drawdown, people were saying a small build. this is definitely a lot here when it comes to the envenntry number. people are going to be digging into the report, looking at the
u.s. production oil to see if it dropped. that would be very king can't in a psychological level and would show u.s. production is declining in a significant way. meantime,ly say this. you had comments from the saudi oil minister that said a production cut -- not freeze but cut is out of the question. so counteracting that headline from the russian news agency saying there was some cooperation made. a freeze may be still on the table but the opec monthly market report out this morning actually saying that opec's production was up in march despite the fact that it expects demand to decrease a little bit. so you have a lot of different factors moving here. probably a lot of short covering is what took us so much higher. but we need to get more cob crete evidence, more news, more out of doha before we see where oil prices go. if we stay below that moving average, 41204 as a sup fort level, i think that's pretty
significant. back over to you, simon. >> yes. it's going to be a big day on doha on sunday. thank you very much, jackie. the dow is up 124 points. it's worth pointing out we had a major stockmarket rally that rolled through asia and europe. actually if you were to look into it in that context, this is slightly disappointing. that mavi to do with oil or retail. nonetheless, it's affecting it. good morning, art zbhood morning. >> important levels here. >> very key level is resistance band in the s&p at 2075 to 2080. if you stretched it, it could be 2082. that has restrained the market in several other rally attempts. amazingly i wrote it in the comments this morning. they went right to it and stopped some of far they haven't gone through it. >> right. presumably if they do, we're off to the races, aren't we? >> then you're in good shape to be toying with the idea toward heading toward 2100.
>> in the meantime it was a major rally overnight. a lot of people were focused good trade data that came oust china, but that has not really replicated itself here. why have we not done better given the fact that bank rallies around jpmorgan? >> i think we predigested some of that. before the china data, there were suspicions about the validity of the china data. people thought they might not really be in line. and as jackie mentioned, there's confusion about oil. while we did get a big build in api and a building in this morning, it was a drawdown in cushing. and cushing is place in oklahoma where they store most of the fracking oil. and i think that's a technical problem that has to do with pipelines and fog in the harbor where they couldn't unload
things. so next week we're going to watch if cushing builds up fully again. oil will become quite vulnerable to say nothing of what happens in doha. >> there's even a debate among some of the fed regions about q1 data, atlanta versus some others. are you feeling like the numbers we're getting are not to be trusted? >> to be doubly examined, i would say. i think atlanta, gdp has had a pretty good record. so they look to me like they're on the mark. i think what's going on is in some of the other regions they're remembering that in the past three or four years the first quarter has been unduly slow. so i think they're getting into the act so they can pitch kind of a seasonable adjustment and see what's going on. >> in the meantime we heard half an hour ago that the market trades fair value here. is that your belief?
others say that -- it's important because we have depressed earnings expectations and if we start beating them t question is how far can you rally. >> yeah. if you move the barlow enough, you know, it's no great struggle. now, what you've got to watch out for is these earnings, not just relative to the last quarter, but where are they year over year. the market does not have a good history when earnings are down year over year. so as that begins to become evident, then the market could be susceptible. you have certain other cautionary signs showing up. you've got not to get too deeply inside banl, but you've got the ten-month average going below the 21-month average. >> right. >> that happens very rarely, but when it does, it means pressure is about to be put on the market. >> one last question. you have pointed out as often you do that the buying from corporates, buying back their own shares has to end at some point before earnings season
because they go effectively into a blackout period. so when we see we're at highs for the year, is this still being propelled in a sense by companies buying back their own stock or is that a dynamic that's over for the time being? >> that's a dynamic that will be ending toward the end of this week in through, i'd say, another three weeks, and it's not insignificant. there's some estimates that they have put in $65 billion a month. so that's more -- more than -- >> it's half a trillion a year effectively. >> right. >> good to see you, art. >> thank you. >> art from ups. voters in new york weigh in on tuesday and trump still has a strong lead. without mentioning trump by name facebook's mark zuckerberg took a swipe at the gop front-runner yesterday. listen. >> i hear fearful voices calling for building walls and
distancing themselves from labeling others, for blocking expression, slowing immigration, reducing trade. instead of building walls we can help people build bridges. and instead of dividing people, we can help bring people together. >> joining us to respond, trump campaign national spokeswoman katrina pearson. good to see you. welcome back to "squawk on the street." >> thank you. >> good morning. what's your response to that not so subtle jab from mark zuckerberg. >> self-righteousness is not very proactive. we can talk taxes and jobs and immigration but that doesn't put food on the table and save lives. i'll take mark zuckerberg seriously once he gives up his security and moves toward a
border town. >> that's pretty person. he slammed jeff bezos, slammed apple, called for a boycott. what's the issue? >> the issue is simple. mr. trump has policies that actually helps the american worker, the american taxpayer, and wants to protect american lives and a lot of these people are only looking at their bottom line when it comes to job, for example when it comes to visas. and even with the wall comment that mark zuckerberg made, there are millions of americans and by far the overwhelming majority of americans who don't have the opportunity to live in safe communities and have private security protecting them. these measures that mr. trump puts forward are about securing the life, liberty, and property of american citizens and the american worker. >> but aren't these companies about securing america. trump talks about making america great again. howie k you do that without some of these companies in silicon valley not just creating jobs but creating innovations and
creating insriable products for around the world. >> absolutely. but i think there should be a line drawn. you know, the ceos in silicon valley should focus on innovation and jobs and businesses and let the politicians make the policies. it's great to have innovation but you should be able to do that without putting lives of americans at risk. >> i also wanted to ask you about the economy. we've been talking all morning long. a number of gdp forecasts that have come out, ceo jamie dimon did talk about the economy. he said, i don't think you have a recession in 2016. most economies think we get stronger through the year, not weaker. so explain donald trump's massive recession coming. what metric is he looking at? >> there's just one opinion. there are still several. we still have a mavis debt we're looking at when you have the fed going back and forth on raising
interest rates and what that would actually do for the economy. we lyric act other markets not doing so well. this is a moving target we're deal with. yes, there might be a great prediction today, but that might change by next week. >> katrina, i want to double back on some of the things you're saying. you criticized mark zuckerberg. you said he should leave his posh neighborhood and go back to working with working class people. you accused him of self-righteousness and having security that others don't. aren't those always accusations that could be labeled against duch? >> yeah, but donald trump isn't saying we shouldn't build a wall and protect everybody else. that's the hypocrisy here. most americans don't live near a wall or have security. we need to protect the american citizen and those are donald trump's policies. mark zuckerberg talked about hope over fear. that doesn't save lives wchl very to do something.
>> right what are you -- >> kate steinle in san francisco. she was shot while walking on the pier with her father for crying out loud. we should be more concerned about her than leaning the border open for more criminals to come across. >> just to be clear, what exactly are you seeking to protect ordinary people from here just to be clear as where we are? >> for as far as putting up the wall? >> yes. >> or just in general because we have all day to do that. >> put up the wall. >> you stop the criminal, the drug cartels. you protect the american citizens because you know who's coming and going. right now we don't. 40% of them are imleechlt mr. trump wants to reform that system. a lost people are taking the jobs. there are a number of things that protecting the citizens of this country could do whether it's with safety or the economy. >> so now that we've got your thoughts on the technology industry, i also wanted to ask you about banks.
we're in themyle of earning system and you have arririvals the left. we haven't heard much. is there anything that big banks should be afraid of when it comes to donald trump and his policies toward dodd frank? >> well, mr. trump is definitely against the overregulation of the system and he mentioned that, i believe yesterday. but the federal government shouldn't be bailing out banks, and that's one of the things that bernie sanders talks about. it's one of the things that launched the tea party movement back when bush did it. so we do need to take these measures more seriously when it comes to federal involvement. and there should be no entity that should be too big to fail. >> katrina, we'll leave it there. thank you. timely topics. katrina pearson from the trump campaign. >> thank you very much. weighing in on the future of messaging. is it box? is it live?
we'll talk about the big players. and sean parker throwing big bucks in the fight against cancer. he's going to join "closing bell" at 3:30 p.m. eastern today. dow's up. we'll be right back. it's called predix. it's gonna change the way the world works. ok, i'm telling my brain to tell the drone to get you a copy of my resume. umm, maybe keep your hands on the controller. look out!! ohhhhhhhhhh... you know what, i'm just gonna email it to you. yeah that's probably safer. ok, cool. [martha and mildred are good to. go. here's your invoice, ladies. a few stops later, and it looks like big ollie is on the mend. it might not seem that glamorous having an old pickup truck for an office... or filling your days looking down the south end of a heifer, but...i wouldn't have it any other way. look at that, i had my best month ever.
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and the s&p utilities sector is lagging down just a little over 1% at this point. this as treasury yields make gains ahead of the federal beige book including march retail sales. weighing in on utilities. they're all down by about 1% or so. remember, utilities are the leading sector so far this year.
they're still up, simon, by about 12%. back to you. >> the market is up. thank you, dom. let's get to rick santelli in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, simon. how are you doing, buddy? obvious lu when you get toearn i ings, everybody's paying attenti attention. we have rebecca corbin. >> we've seen that significantly recede. they're largely stabilized. >> if you had to pick one word in the macro for something that makes investors' eyes twinkle based on this quarter versus last quarter, what would that be? >> sure. areas for improvement are oil prices. u.s., u.s., u.s. u.s. non-resi, u.s.-resi, and
u.s. consumer. >> what's kind of the ham empty issues? >> sure. china is still the big factor. china banking system, china gdp. >> you're talking europe. >> absolutely. that's having a negative impact on them. >> when i talk to my sources, basically the one issue of europe is whenever any new reforms are put forth it makes everyone excited. we don't know the details. was your cut-off allowing some of the italian banking issues to creep in? >> yeah. our survey ran from mid-march to april. >> it's all about the fed. notice i drnlt pick any of your recession charts. >> i just want to point out that i was surprised that 40% still think we're heading into a recession, same as last quarter. same as last quarter. >> yes. >> but if you get into the nitty-gritty and i watch your survey closely, it seems prices are down. it's all about stockmarket. which is all about my new topic
the fed. all right. how many respon accidents believe we're going to see an active fed and they're going to be raising rates? >> three quarters believe we're going to be raising regards. they're only expecting one. >> let me get this straight. yes, they're going to see fed. how much? that much. not much. so basically one. >> one. pretty much. >> all right. political season. >> sure. >> you read the newspaper, cnbc, watch any channel, no matter what it is, everybody's trying to create this road from politics to the market. do your rye spon dents see a huge inl fluns on the political surface if you like with regard to the portfolio? >> sure. >> let me get this straight. they're playing the same game as everybody else, oh, my god, this is crazy. but when it comes to their money, only about 25% say they're actually doing something based on what they're talking
about at the water cooler. >> yeah, but we'll be tracking this and i guarantee you this will be going up. >> i would be remiss not to ask you this question. out of all the candidates, who scares investors the most in yo they're. >> that's the only one viewed as very positive. >> that's extra and they're in the acting on it and that's what they're saying. that's the mortgage on the board and scared to death. >> wow. >> yeah. >> earnings and then it mentioned and then investors and then one of the things is the thing and it's over sold in industrials. they have been the first time in three quarters and very exciting
time and it's to the positive and then it's the straight and really the affect was going to be looking and then the nationa nationals. >> okay. and then it's continued to the the sunshine and the dollar. it's for the the earnings and we look forward to having you and sarah back to you. >> this has an outdoor theater. it's the speedboats and then we will find out after the break.
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