tv Fast Money CNBC November 7, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
"fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, steve grasso, guy adami. the man who called the selloff says buy and buy now. what has him so bullish. and the one stock that should be soaring this election, but isn't. we'll tell you what it is and why one of our traders think it's a buy. and againis gartman says it's a perfect buying opportunity. but first, we start with a remarkable rally on wall street. the dow, s&p and nasdaq all up 2% on the expectation that
hillary clinton will capture the white house tomorrow. it is the best day for stocks in eight months. but the question here is, are investors getting ahead of themselves and should you sell this election rally. guy, what do you say? >> i'm inclined to say you fade this move because it takes us back to levels in may of 2015. this is a 2130 level. what was support becomes resistance. and does that mean it can't trade another ten handles higher? if she wins, people will say she might not be as friendly towards the market as a mr. trump, for example. and i think this rally we saw gets faded. >> and brings us back to where a week ago when we had the first fbi letter. so i'm not sure that today's rally necessarily was a predictor that hillary clinton will win. it's just a -- the odds are back to where they were a week ago. so i wouldn't read too much into that. although i'm with guy in that, if hillary clinton wins, i'm not sure economic policies are that great for the market and economy. >> the other puzzling piece of
the puzzle for today's rally, financials and health care also rose. so if you really believe hillary clinton was going to win, and would win with a democratically controlled congress, you don't think these two sectors would -- >> the way i'm squaring the health care trade, is that there will be divided government. so i think that she won't have the ability to do what she wants to do, but the truth is, there is consensus. both parties are against -- or for pricing. better pricing. so i would say that that trade should definitely be sold, the health care trade. i'm with guy. i think the s&p should be sold off. but i do believe you have about 1% to the up side based on the fact of her winning, because now they're saying she won. >> i say what an amazing turn, one fbi statement makes for a lot of people in the market, not necessarily this desk. but friday afternoon, i'm not sure people were that positive. and i think of this as a bit of a reverse brexit moment. i think you have a place where markets -- such negative news as
opposed to the opposite of brexit. i think you can have a relief on wednesday but then you're confronted with a lot of the policy issues we have. having said that, i think a lot of the macros have been very good the last couple days. removing this entire colossal strange trip is something that will be a good thing for markets and i look at banks and transports and wonder isn't this the leadership we have been looking for. >> isn't the election and policies going to change the fundamentals for the macro. that's the concern. right? so we had -- we had this uptick in pmis. but the question is, on both sides, frankly, whoever wins, i can make an argument both sides are going to be a slow growth economy at best. >> i can't make any arguments for what a trump presidency is going to look like. if people are handicapping markets, what we have said here. a clinton presidency and either a divided congress or possibly an entire sweep, i think people can do that in their models what they want. trump wins, i'm not going --.
let's go back to the economic data. if housing starts were weak and industrial production was weak and based on gdp, consumer spending, gdp everyone has looked upon as the exports really provided some tailwind to that gdp, so should be less than what it was. what's really positive? >> pmis have been good, the labor numbers continue to be very good. people have jobs. loan numbers -- the velocity of money continuing to grow. global trade, which we know is under pressure is doing better. so to me, you can't tell me that the macro is bad. the macro is not necessarily saying things are real rosie. but if you think of the pessimism out there, that's pretty high. >> and there is -- to your point, some uncertainty that will dictate some of the fundamentals going forward. you're sitting on some big gains for certain sectors. transports, which tim mentioned. year-to-date. health care. airlines crushing it. health care, financials. what do you do with these sectors? what is your inclination going into the election the next 30
days? >> i think you probably stay with the transports, because -- listen. could you take profits? probably, yes. evaluations still reasonable. my pushback, the data has been better, not great. i don't think he's saying it's great. but what it does, in my opinion, is puts the fed back in play in december. so that's another wild card we don't seem to talk about. but a fed rate hike into what is -- not an earnings recession, but not blasting off on the earnings front. i don't know if it did he rails the market. >> isn't the status quo fed what this market needs and wants. i'm not saying -- plenty of criticism for the fed out there. and interest rates moving higher. st status quo fed, they're cautious about doing what they have to. >> banks? one and done is bad for the banks. >> rates are going higher anyway. they're the ones steering rates higher and the fed is going to err on being more cautious. yes, i agree. but i go back to valuations on banks. they're lending in a bad environment, making money in a
bad environment. how about when it gets to be 120 bips. >> a news alert. let's get to meg terrell. >> melissa, a news alert on mylan. the senate judiciary committee is calling on the federal trade commission to review mylan's business practices with respect to epipens for possible anti-competitive behavior, according to a release coming across just now. this is senator chuck grassley and pat leahy calling on the ftc. they say having to do with news reports about mylan engaging in exclusive contracts with schools, precluding them from purchasing products that compete with their epipen. this was reported by stat news several months ago. a lot else has transpired around the epipen since then. the institution area committee has scheduled a hearing at the end of this month to explore the settlement with department of justice. and mylan related to the misclassification of the epipen. this antitrust issue, a different part of the story. mylan down just fractionally.
>> thanks so much. and health care was a huge winner in today's session. >> you know, the reason, this is a preview of what we're talking about. >> right, exactly. >> it's bipartisan. you heard a republican's name too. obama down 32%. it's not going away. divided government means nothing if both -- >> that tells me you sell this health care rally. >> yes. >> okay. a major hedge fund manager not selling today. telling "squawk box" he is betting a clinton victory will propel stocks even higher. >> definitely longer today than when i -- talked two weeks ago, three weeks. the market has been down eight, nine, whatever days in a row now. i guess it was good to be cautious. that's how we'll -- we're winding up from a market perspective here, navigating this. >> we're hearing today from another stock market bull, chief strategist tony dwyer, upgraded his forecast last week to positive from neutral.
tony, good to have you with us. >> great to be here. >> you say stocks go up no matter what? for real? >> we're joking before the show that one day i was bearish. you know, for seven years, the real fed funds rate -- the yield curve has been steep. there has been no stress priced into the various market. it's hard to make the case you're embarking upon a recession when there is no problem with monetary backdrop, no change in the monetary backdrop and the data is actually getting better. couple that with the global pmis finally starting to uptick. i think you have -- all the data supports a re acceleration of activity, which down the road, i don't think i'm going to be so optimistic in the second half of next year. right now, the conditions are pretty terrific. a global reacceleration. the fed, the greatest market timers have decided they're only going to do two rate hikes next year when they probably should do four. so we're going to have a pin fed still on the low end.
the long end trading higher, great for the barnes, great for the industrials. >> so you're saying the fundamentals are really going to trump -- forgive the use of the word -- >> forgiven. >> but outweigh whatever happens politically over the next couple days. >> i believe so. the only thing you really have to worry about in an election is major legislative change that's pending. what creates major legislative change. it's economic dislocation, where you have some kind of recession. the bush tax cuts, right? coming out of the dot-com bust. the obama tax hikes coming out of the financial crisis. major legislative change doesn't just magically happen in an okay economy. this has been an okay economy with stable interest rates that people have refinanced their debt. the fed -- this is going to end badly, because you cannot fix debt with excess debt. the thing is, you've got to have much higher rates to create that issue. >> tony, the s&p, the market is the greatest leading indicator.
if you're not that constructive six months or eight months from now or whatever the time period is, that's usually when the market leads. usually has a six-month lead over the overall economic status of the economy. when do you start getting defensive if you're still bullish now? >> it's got to depend on rates. i love how people like me come on tv and pretend we have any idea what our next year's target is. i have to have one. what it comes down to, what is the rate structure? tim talked about the .2 spread. i used the five-year spread because the bank lends at five years. so that is still steep. it really depends on the yield curve. ultimately, i will say this straight up. i will not be negative. i will not be negative on the market until far after an aversion of the yield curve. until proven differently, including in cycle, you need a spike in the fed funds. how do i know when rates go up? when it inverts the curve for more than nine months. you haven't gone into a
recession without that happening. >> you talked about a plaj legislative change. let's say we get a democratic sweep. does that change your forecast? >> that would make for a problem. because then you're just talking tax hike, increased regulation. it would have to be a democratic sweep. again, that brings -- there's two things that create that legislative change, economic dislocation or a super majority. where you can do whatever you want. obamacare. he didn't ask anybody's permission. he just jammed it through, because he could. same on the republicans. you -- >> i know you hate your end forecast. how much would that knock down your year-end forecast. >> it would have to -- it would bring my earnings number down and multiple down. probably around current levels. the history of the market shows that until you invert -- spike rates and invert the yield curve, you just don't want to be negative in a bull market. how many issues. a european debt crisis, fiscal cliff, china collapse, emerging
disruption with commodities. still we're near new highs. the backdrop and credit is still very solid. >> tony, thanks for coming by. tony dwyer. all right. so we have this big rally. so what did you sell? or what did you buy? >> first of all, the reflation trade is back alive and well. zinc at five-year highs. comer is finally breaking out. a laggard. flat world steel getting pricing power. these are trades that had a huge run. guess what, the fundamentals actually turning, supply/demand getting better. x -- materials, where people think you can go. sen x, we won't get into. cx. >> so i think you have to sit on your hands. you wait for closure, wait for the election. >> we're not doing anything. >> i would stay in majority of cash, right now, leading into the election. but i think those deal stocks where no one paid attention, the monsantos, the time warners, i think those are going to get interesting when people start to
focus on them. >> well, for me, it's gold. that's the one thing i'm staying long, going into the election. i look at it in two different ways. one, i think if trump wins, it's a tail risk hedge. but then secondly, either candidate, you're going to get some kind of fiscal stimulus or the market is going to price that in, which could tick up inflation expectations. for me, the risk/reward is better there. >> stay with u.s. bank corp, up two-and-a-half, flirting with an all time high. maybe a stretch on valuation. it's hard for me to get crazy bullish until the russell gets through that 128, 130 level. the iwm that is significantly day big day today. you saw a precipitous job over the last two-and-a-half accident with. >> still ahead, the one company should be making a fortune off the election but surprisingly is not. why one of our traders thinks it's a buy. tomorrow night we should know who the next president of the united states is. no matter who wins, we've got
the sectors and names who will do well under a clinton/trump administration. and a great buying opportunity for one commodity in particular. he'll tell us what that is when "fast money" returns. they may want the latest products and services, but they demand the best shopping experiences. they're your customers. and by blending physical with digital, cognizant is helping 8 of the 10 largest u.s. retailers meet their demands with more responsive retail models... ones that transcend channels and locations, anticipate expectations... creating new ways to engage at every imaginable touch-point. it's a new day in retail, and together, we're building the store of the future. digital works for retail. let's talk about how digital works for your business.
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welcome back to "fast money." this whole election played out on twitter and over that time, shares of the social media company have been struggling, falling 35% in the past year. so if they can't manage to get it together in a year like this, will they ever? steve grasso's long. why are you sticking with it? >> i still think this is -- i am a lot less long than i have been at the max. but i did buy some stock in the middle teens. and i stayed with it, and i stayed with it even after this selloff. so it's about m & a, unfortunately. they need somebody to take them over who could better monetize, who could better do what they have they have not been able to do. if you see the stock, it does tick up whenever there is m & a buzz, when all the parties and counter parties and prose prospective candidates walk away. they would need an election, an nfl game, and something else, every single day to make a
difference in their traffic. >> all right. but that's fine. but i'm long twitter, too. and how many events, whether the olympics or something that -- they didn't do it now. grablted, they haven't been doing it. to say this is suddenly going to be the catalyst to seeing growth really collapse and shrivel, if anything, i thought we saw them stabilize and ad revenues come in better than expected. the big problem really is the product side, and -- >> they can't monetize. and everybody who has come in to talk to them, to potentially buy them runs the other way. nobody coming in to buy t. >> i'm not sure jack dorsey wanted to sell. insiders and early-stage people wanted to cash out. we didn't know they shopped this thing hard. >> seemed like everybody in silicon valley was in there. >> meantime, facebook announces it's partnering with 50 publications, et cetera, for facebook live, for election night. for their live video stream, which is really where it's at. in other words, twitter is facing all sorts of competition. >> no question about it.
twitter as a property is still unique, in my opinion. the mistake i thought was talking about monthly average users. should never use that metric in the first place. the genie out of the bag. i think the last point is encouraging. the best thing that may happen to twitter going forward, the fact they didn't sell at $25 a share. >> so you have a buyer here. >> and the risk to the down side is 15. the up side is north of 25. >> up next, transport surging more than 3% during today's session, closing a 52-week high. and while the s&p closed lower, the transports actually rallied about 5% during that time. tim was extolling the airlines. >> airlines on a tear since mid september. they should be better and higher oil. you have a case where they're executing. we talked about the rails. kansas city southern, ksu has a huge election tailwind if, in fact, clinton wins and we haven't seen that. i think you stay in the space. i trimmed some airlines today.
ual and delta. i hope to get back in lower. it's been a very big run. the valuations aren't so cheap any more. >> this is an indicator of the economy? >> not today's rally. i would not say it's an indicator at all. what i would say about kansas city, ksu, they have a train line right down to mexico. that's why everybody is so keyed up for the election. look how they close. they closed in a lower third. trading range today. to me, this goes to a repricing of the probabilities of hillary clinton win. >> recessions are cyclical. it's not if it's going to happen, it's when it's going to happen. and i think once we get a sniff around it, once you get the election out of the way, you will start to hear some buzz about a recession coming down the pike. because they always do. and i hate to sound like the guy betting on black in the casino. it's eventually going to happen. and i think this sector is the most exposed. >> i mean, yeah, let's hold our breath waiting for a recession. >> trust me -- >> just because they happen.
this says they happen. >> so you're saying the business cycle no longer exists. >> who said that? >> you did. you said -- hold our breath for a recession, just because they happen. >> i was actually being sarcastic. just because a recession has to happen at some point, doesn't mean it's going to happen. >> that gets back to what under. >> my point, you're just announcing a recession has to come because it's been talked about for three years, and eventually it's going to happen. you're maybe talking about some economic data that frankly i could counter and we did that in the "a" black block. >> as i started up -- >> the trick is timing. how do you know when that -- yeah, a recession is going to happen, but is it next month? >> spirit airlines is performing, up 20%. when you see that knee-jerk reaction, when all the others that have been so beaten up because the cross structures don't work, pricing doesn't work, those are the names you should sell. >> thank god we haven't talked about terrorist activity in months now. we haven't talked about zeke.
why do i bring it up? look at price line earnings. stock up huge. it's an all-time high and although it trades for 1500 a share, it doesn't mean it's an expensive stock. if you look at the earnings, their revenue growth and the growth overall in the company, at 19 or so, 20 times forward earnings, i think this is interesting. hard to buy at an all-time high tomorrow. but it's a name you should continue to watch. >> after this break, we check in on priceline and rallying, a strong year for the travel stock. are they telling the real story? i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money." in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> what do these three companies have in common? a common excuse for tepid sales. we'll break it down. plus, dennis gartman says the election chaos has created the perfect buying opportunity for one commodity.
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welcome back to "fast money." huge rally on wall street as it looks more and more likely clinton will take the white house. the dow rallying 371 points, making it the best day for stocks in eight months. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." starbucks and mcdonald's. is it just a lame excuse or hiding a much bigger problem? we'll explain. and disney's espn is taking on an unusual teammate in what looks like a bet on the millennial viewer, but will it work? we've got a special report. but first on this election eve, secretary clinton
maintaining a lead over trump. john harwood joins us from headquarters with some historical context. john. >> melissa, take a look at these final polls and we can see where donald trump and hillary clinton stand. they're remarkably consistent, all a four-point lead for hillary clinton, except for the bloomberg poll, which has a three-point lead. our nbc "wall street journal," 33 to 40. how does this compare to what happened in 2012 just before the election. if you look at the real clear politics average, in 2012, it showed that barack obama had a lead of less than 1 percentage point over mitt romney. he ended up winning by four points, with 336 electoral votes. hillary clinton right now has got a lead of almost three points against donald trump. so how does that affect the odds of winning? well, there's a contrast there, too. in 2012, even though obama had a narrower polling margin, the analyst -- a 90% chance of
winning. now he's less than 70% for hillary clinton. why is that? well, look at the battleground map of states and what we see is that hillary clinton is running up the score in solidly blue states like california and doing very well with hispanics in a state like texas, which he's going to lose. that means he's throwing away some popular vote that isn't going to have the same efficiency in payoff in battleground states. nevertheless, on this battleground map, nbc news shows that hillary clinton has more than enough states leaning her way, or actually solidly her way in order to get over the 270 electoral votes she needs. donald trump has got a very steep hill to climb. he's still racing with events tonight, so is hillary clinton. we'll see what happens tomorrow. >> john, thank you. john harwood at headquarters. before you cast your vote for president tomorrow, our next guest has the first move for your portfolio. dennis gartman joins us with his election playbook. hey, dennis. >> how are you? >> i'm good, thanks. we start off with gold. we want to know if you want to buy or sell the yellow metal
right now. >> i continue to be bullish of gold, but predicated upon owning it in euro dollar terms or euro terms. i think it makes a far better trade than to own it in dollars. i want to own gold in the currency i think is going to decline in value. we in the united states have already beginning the process of tightening monetary policy. if you look at the adjusted monetary base, it's down almost $1 trillion. down in the last 15 months. on the other hand, the monetary authorities in europe have no choice but to continue to be expansionary. that makes logical sense to be a buyer of gold, but predicate that in euro terms. i think it's a wiser trade with less volatility. >> let's say i'm a simple, straight forward kind of trader. how about just gold and just plain old dollar terms? >> if you made me do something, i book a buyer today, gold i think broke -- technically, i like to watch markets that break into what i call the box, which is the 50 to 62% replacement of some previous move.
you had a move higher, you have broken back today, took it right into the middle of the box. if you made me do something in dollar terms, i would be a buyer today at $121.82 or 1282. >> let's talk oil now. interesting, because we have the election and an opec meeting later this month. what do you do? >> i think that crude is clearly in a bear market. the contango continues to widen. crude continues to bid for storage. noali no alternative to that happening. opec cannot possibly come up withage agreement. you may get a 2 or $3 rally in crude oil, but i've been here saying anything above $52 is going to be an extremely difficult level to get through. probably difficult to take wti before low $38. this afternoon, nearby $45. if we rallied to $47, i would be a seller. >> and peso. what do you do with the peso? >> it's a punt on whether mr. trump wins or loses the election. clearly he's going to -- i shouldn't say clearly, but
certainly would seem he's going to lose after what happened yesterday. the concern will be if he were to win, that's going to be deleterious to the petitionsa. if you believe that trump is going to win, you sell the peso. i'm not sure if i want to buy or sell at this point because the polls are too up in the air. i think she's going to win. probably will mean the dollar gets stronger. >> dennis, it's tim. i have to say i'm totally opposite on you everything here. oil, as we held the 200, i think the numbers going into the opec meeting are a sign of everyone wanting to max out before they do a deal. and when i look at mexico, first of all, it's a rally either way once we get through this election. trump is going to be conciliatory toward mexico if he wins. as much as he says he's going to build a wall and make them pay for it, he's going to have to cut a deal. >> let us hope he does. it would be illogical and very bad form for it to be anything other than that, tim, of course. >> dennis, real quick. your gold trade is a bearish
play on the euro with a gold kicker. so where do you -- me asking you, where do you think euro goes versus the u.s. dollar? >> i think clearly the dollar wants to go higher in almost all terms, other than against the other dollars, other than against canada, australia and new zealand. i think the dollar wants to get continuously stronger. i think the political circumstances prevailing in europe are terribly detrimental, terribly deleterious and once we get under 108, you're trading down to par. the trick to watch, watch what happens to the cross rate between the swiss franc and the euro. anything under 108, and we're traded at $107.50, and you didn't see the swiss national bank come in today to hold down the swiss frank, it tells you money is leaving europe and going to safe havens. otherwise, i think that's terribly detrimental to the euro and you're going to par below. is it going to happen by tuesday? no. by next year, maybe not. is it going to happen sometime in the next several years, you want to sell rallies in the euro. >> got it. dennis, thank you.
dennis gartman. >> always good to be here. >> bk, you sort of agree with what dennis has to say. >> certainly on gold. oil is a tossup. i get timmy's view. so for a trade i'm not sure i would be shorting oil right now. but in terms of gold, i think you can buy gold in dollar terms, just flat out buy gld. what the market appears to be pricing is some sort of stagflationnary environment. something similar to what we had in the '70s. whether that comes about, i'm not sure. that was very positive for gold. >> if you believe you should be a buyer of gld, you buy gdx. unfortunately, up 82%, year-to-date, against gold, gld up 22% year-to-date. >> what are you funding, torque? >> when you get it, grab on to it and hold on for a ride. industrial metals still very interesting here, but the banks and strpts still on valuation in a world where people are uncertain. those are the sectors working,
because valuation support. >> i took auto shop in middle school and i had a torque wrench. >> oh, yeah. >> you don't -- please. >> don? >> don, with that said, you know -- i strongly -- mrs. clinton wins, the dollar goes higher. fed rate hike, the dollar continues higher and a stronger dollar to mr. gartman's point is deleterious to the earnings of u.s. multinationals, just something to keep in mind. >> as we head to break, let's check out shares of price line up sharply following another strong quarter. those traveling now telling the true story of the u.s. economy. plus, are food retailers like starbucks and mcdonald's making a stale argument when blaming the election? we'll have a surprising report, right after this break. stay tuned.
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♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ we've got an earnings alert on price line and marriott. let's get to seema mody for details. >> mariott shares falling 2%. third quarter profits hurt by costs linked to a merger related to its $13 billion acquisition of starwood, operator of sheraton and westin hotels. marriott expects fourth quarter earnings between 80 cents and 85 cents, below the 87-cent
estimate. shares up about 3%, though, year-to-date. moving on to online travel website price line, shares surging. third quarter results beat driven by higher hotel bookings. fourth quarter earnings, the company said it will scale back expansion plans for its open table dining service. this leads to a $941 million write down. the rumor, price line paid $2.6 billion for open table in 2014. price line named the head of its business, brent keller as permanent ceo. shares up more than 5% after hours. lastly, melissa, i want to draw your attention to shares of hertz, falling in extended trade, down more than 20% on weak earnings and dividance and now sees 2016 adjusted earnings per share between 51 to 88 ke s cents. again, a big mover here in extended trade, melissa. >> thank you very much, seema mody. that is a massive decline in shares of hertz.
the rise of uber, loyft. >> you are starting to see the millennial effect on the economy. millennials looking for the experience. that's what they're spending their money on. you get priceline up. when they go to that particular destination, they stay in an airbnb and take an uber or share with somebody else. that's the other side. i'm not sure this is a comment on the economy. it's just how it's shifting internally. >> you think it goes to the next domino would be ford and gm. if we're talking about sharing economy, many people throw out the term peak autos and i'm one of the people who believe ford is down 16% and gm down 5 or 6%. so i do think that you're going to see a peak auto based on bk's point, just to dovetail with that, millennials are not really buying cars as much as sharing cars. even now. >> somebody -- okay, i'm just going to walk through. somebody owns a car, and somebody is going to drive x miles. if you're not going to drive 20 miles from here to home and
you're going to take an uber, let's say, every day. somebody is driving those 20 miles which adds up to mileage on a car which then shortens the life span of that car, right? by 20 miles each time. so in the end, does it have the deleterious effect that we think? >> great weave, mel. and i think there's some torque in this too. >> surround this tree for us, tim. >> the way i look at this -- many cases, three people in the car where there was one. and that efficiency is something. htz is not to me something you -- this is not an illustration of the entire disruptive space on the car industry. i'm sorry. this is the rental car business has been dead for a decade, as far as i'm concerned. this can be suffering, not changed with the times. meanwhile, expedia and price line both buys. as brian pointed out, not only is millennial going for the experience, but these are companies that in some cases are dominating that industry, where you think there are no barriers to entry. so far ahead of everyone else. >> avis, also by the way down 3% after hours.
>> we kill analysts all of the time. on october 24th, goldman sachs initiated hertz, a $29 price target. a lot of people piled into these names, hertz, specifically, because valuation they thought was get too long cheap. then you see the quarter they report and you realize the cheap valuation isn't all that cheap. does it have further room to the down side? i think in varying degrees, yes. >> stiblging with the consumer, food chains pointing to the election as reasons for slowing sales. susan lee has all the details. >> melissa, you've heard over and over again during earnings season, election uncertainty is keeping consumers away. away from their burgers and fries, doughnuts and coffee. from starbucks to mcdonltds to duncan, sales not meeting expectations and the election partly to blame. howard schultz, the starbucks earnings call, said i don't think we have ever witnessed such concern over what could happen in the u.s., as a result of the election. mcdonald's ceo, steve easter
brook mentioned the election cycle and yum brands which operates taco bell and kfc said the vote is causing consumer uncertainty, and consumers would cut back on their discretionary spending, whether trump or clinton in the white house. consumer consultancy group carried out a survey saying they would be cutting back on their spending if either trump or clinton wins. around 17% for each. so what would they be cutting back on? eating out and grabbing that latte. over 50% of their restaurant spending, in fact, whether fast food, fast casual, fine dining and those coffee runs, of course. now a lot of the same ceos pointing to election uncertainty, holding back consumers. they have expressed hope, at least hope that once the election and the vote is decided, that consumers will hopefully come back. back to you. >> okay. thank you very much, susan lee. we have absolutely pilloried
ceos, who put forth the election uncertainty as an excuse for people not buying lipsticks or coffee or whatnot. but to be fair, there is an element of what happens to taxes, for instance. under either candidate. and so how much more will i have to pay? maybe i have to start saving money, because my world is going to change. >> and health care, as well. you have seen health care premiums rise. under both candidates. doesn't really matter. so the consumer is seeing some pressures. you know, and what's interesting is that one survey was talking about consumers under both circumstances say they're going to cut back by 17%. so while i might be scent california, because i tend to eat out more when i'm stressed, just saying, i have a burger or two here. other consumers -- >> a lot of aggressions. >> minimum wage debate. now we're going to see that full throttle and that's a huge headwind for a lot of companies we're talking about. >> a plus for consumer spending. >> a plus or minus against them. domino's pizza up year-to-date. every time someone says sell it.
>> i lore starbucks. you can't pay 30 times for the stock. starbucks can only charge so much for a serenity coffee. $2.25 to almost 3 bucks in the last two years. and it gets to a place where -- >> who has 75 cents. >> with the whipped cream and caramel? >> i don't -- strictly -- >> soy? >> lactose intolerant or something. >> don't go there. >> don't go there, is right. starbucks going lower long before mr. trump was considered the main -- >> well, in july, schultz said also election uncertainty was causing people to slow down. in july. >> starbucks to me is a place where people gather to talk about exactly what we're talking about right now. if they're not -- >> why can't it be less traffic? a lot of retail others -- maybe the amazon effect, maybe both. >> all i know, when you trade at a valuation like starbucks
trades at and growth starts to slow, this is what happens, regardless of whether or not people are scared to buy coffee considering who the next president is going to be. >> coming up. vice media and espn releasing more details of their sports programming deal. could the partnership breathe life into a struggling espn. and a massive bet on the fear today, and telling you why it raised so many eyebrows ahead of tomorrow's election when "fast money" returns.
welcome back to "fast money." no secret espn is under pressure on the heels of kneelson reaffirming a report in pay tv describers. could a sports programming deal with vice give a boost? julia has more. >> hey, melissa. vice media and disney's espn relea release deals. it will see programming shared between the companies, cross digital mobile and television. espn 2 will share "the clubhouse" as an hour-long special and espn 2 will run blocks of vice world of sports through december. and the cable network will heiress opinion's documentary series 30 for 30, every friday.
disney is the largest outside stakeholder in vice, having an invested an additional $400 million in the company on top of the piece that disney owns vice through its stake in a & e networks. disney shares have been under pressure over the past year, despite strong quarterly results, as investors have raised concerns about the long-term health of espn, in light of the rise of cord-cutting and cord nevers. espn subscriber trends and ratings sure to be front and center when disney reports its earnings after the bell on thursday, but this partnership between espn and vice certainly shows disney innovating to draw younger viewers, which vice certainly has. melissa, back over to you. >> i think it shows that disney is looking at content in different ways. but it sounds this is a deal much better for vice than espn. >> well, i think it depends. i mean, they are sharing content on both platforms. it's good for espn to have access to that content.
we have to remember, what's good for vice is also good for disney. >> okay, julia, thank you. julia boorstin in los angeles. does this alleviate your concerns? >> it helps. >> yeah? >> it helps, but now you have to ask, what is the right valuation for disney. current price, 95 bucks. it's trading close to 16 times next year's earnings expectations, about $6.05 a share. pushing back on espn subs. nielsen says they have lost subscribers. disney says no, we find out on november 10th. might inclination, it's still expensive to its peers. it has to get cheaper. >> i'm currently out, lieu but looking to get back in. >> why are you looking to get back in? >> people are going to start talking about content. content, they are the giant in content. so you can't -- to guy's point, it depends on what people are willing to pay, what multiple
people are willing to pay for that content. i believe you're looking at a floor, stabilizing at disney. >> it doesn't sound like the cable business is going to be anything that gets you excited any time soon. in fact, it could be actually a lot worse. are they overcompensating with the content, do they deserve a premium? yes. should media conditions be trading a 20% discount to the s&p. that's really what's going on. and that's the attack on the sector, and disney is the best of breed until proven otherwise. i would be neutral. >> it seems to me, this isn't awesome for disney. they have to pay for content. their traditional franchises aren't working. they're plowing more money into vice, which is fine, but that's not necessarily good for disney in a sense, if they have to pay up, particularly when there is other competition out there. the joke in hollywood, netflix, you go there if you can't sell any place else. >> i'm outta here. >> yeah, you should go. you can have a comedy show. >> tell you what, it would be funny. >> maybe. >> if the number one issue with
disney at this moment in time is a concern about the decline in tv in subscribers for espn, then does this solve it? >> no. >> and is there anything -- >> i don't think it solves it. >> is there something that will turn that around on the horizon? >> look, i don't think any of these guys have an answer to the problems that are going on with their cable business. but i think it's compensated by a very diversified model which includes parks and recreation which is growing, growing, growing. >> let's shift gears. the vix tumbling ahead of tomorrow's election. one trader made a very large bet that appears to be a big call. hey, mike. >> hey, so we saw two times the average daily options volume in the vix index. over 1 million contracts traded in. one trader traded 60,000 contracts, selling 15,000 november 17 calls for 93 cents. and then buying 45,000 november 13 and a half puts. so this is clearly a bearish bet on the vix. and the way the futures curve is
shaping up, definitely looks like we have significantly reduced volatility after the election, and probably through the inauguration. >> all right. thanks for that, mike. more "options action," 5:30 eastern time on friday. anybody hedging into the election, hedging their portfolios? >> i think you can hedge. the problem is the vix is so high at this point in time, i think we talked in the show, probably a week ago, your time to do it. >> i think this is a time to roll up the puts. if you like putting on fridays, you get then cheaper today and a lot of uncertainty out there. after the break, bk has an under the radar way for the election. and what traders are watching tomorrow. much more "fast," straight ahead. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data
you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. ♪ ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. (bing)
♪ whoa! >> as many of you know, the new york city marathon took place yesterday, and one of the best around, our brian kelly, proving he's not just fast in the markets, but fast in his speed, as well. our producer, amanda diaz, also completed the race for first marathon. congrats to beakers and amend.
. nice. >> good job! >> good job. >> how do you feel today? >> my legs are killing me today. yeah. it was, you know, 26 miles is a long way. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> three days, you finished it, right? >> he's completing after the show. >> i've got five more miles. >> time for the "final trade." >> tim. >> cx, i think you can buy it here on mexican weakness. >> grasso. >> we talked about the re emergence in content. disney, 94ish. >> bk. >> i talked about gold earlier, but i think silver is an excellent way to play the election. >> high hoe. >> just like the horse. >> bk raised -- i'm sure amanda does, as well. i'm not sure who she raised for but i know bk raised money for an amazing organization, right? i'll throw it out there. >> good stuff. >> good work. >> on with your website, if you want to check it out. u.s. bank corp, a segue not deleterious to the show.
usb slow and steady, wins the race. >> does that add torque? >> i'm melissa lee, see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and educate you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. oh, so the markets fell in love with hillary clinton? is that the bizarre conclusion we're supposed to draw from today's monster rally? the best move for the major averes