tv Fast Money CNBC November 18, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
that's what we're seeing has any legs beyond a one-week. >> curious to see what retail investors think when they look at their mutual funds and see the bond portfolios have gone down sa 15%. >> and michael, thank you, for joining us on klobuch"closing b" have a great weekend. "fast money" begins now. >> it sure does, kelly. happy friday, america. and welcome to "fast money." melissa is still off. i'm still brian sullivan. thanks for joining us. your traders tonight are tim seymour, brian kelly, david seaburg and guy adami. did you suffer from election rejection? did you sell stocks and miss the rally? don't worry, the traders reveal their catchup trade. and one new low for a well-known stock. and later on, time warner set for a big weekend with its harry potter spinoff. will that work its -- magic? magic for shareholders.
as you can tell, there is a ton to do. first, let's start with the markets and what looks like a bit bit of pause in the trump rally. all three major indexes fell and closed in the red. not down much, but still down. this is the dollar soars to its highest level in 13 years and the bond bloodbath continues. yields continuing to climb. get this. just since the election, financials up double digits. industrials up 5%. only consumer staples and utilities have lagged. nearly everything else is up. but gentlemen, my question to you -- is a basic one. tim seymour, have we come too far, too fast? >> before the election, when people were nervous about the election, we were talking about stocks and we talked about on the desk, the impact for multinationals. you're out of place if you think about where we have come this week. xlf, transports, all flat to down slightly. so at some point, people have started to weigh the reality of how much, how fast we're coming
to some realization that maybe tax reform could happen. but really, folks, i mean, to expect so much that was so negative before election to turn so positively, i think the market is doing the right thing. >> look, i can see a tdigestion period. at the end of the day, there is so many hedge funds caught off guard. we saw that. performance chase happen over the past several years. hedge funds caught off guard when this trump victory came, they got hurt so performance has not been great, although the market has done well. i look and say, what will they chase. they're going to chase the names that money has been piling into. the financials. i look at it specifically mid cap names. i love them. i would -- >> back it up, david. sorry to interrupt. when you say caught off guard. caught off guard from what? not the trump victory. i can understand financials rallying. interest margins look better. i get that. >> badly positioned. >> what today has fundamentally changed from eight days ago? >> expectations. i think expectations drive the
market. look at it this way. when i say people came in badly positioned, they came in completely hedged. hedges had to come off. and they had to get long stocks. had to get long names that they knew were going to win. we watched the banking stocks take off. we watched the long positioning within the utilities and the staples come off. >> so i would say that what you -- to answer your question, what's different after the election, is the republican sweep of the house. i would argue, if we had a trump presidency and a democratic congress, then we probably would not have this rally. but what investors are now saying is, there is going to be a ton of money coming from overseas in here. not only that, you have pro business, hopefully nonprotectionist policies, and that has what changed from eight days ago. now, everything that tim talked about is still a very big concern. higher rates, that's not necessarily going to be great. the dollar in and of itself could be the thing that short-circuited this. >> that's my point, bk. we expect change, but we haven't gotten it yet. i mean, enjoy -- we think a lot
of things are going to happen. i had a long conversation on the way into the show, by the way, almost barely made it, because apparently trump shut down the lincoln tunnel so he could go to new jersey. great job on a friday night. don't do that. basically, remember, there's 535 people in congress that have a say. right? even the republicans may not all come together. so really, when you look at the investing landscape, guy adami, what do you think has changed, besides expectation? >> that's the only word. david used the right word. the thing that changed in terms of market, the iwm was on the verge of rolling over and making a new 52-week low prior to this election. look at the iwm from november 9th until today. the thing went from 114 and change closed at 131 today. that to me is the bellwether, been the bellwether for quite some time. candidly, i thought it was going to roll over. and here we are at all-time highs. almost doesn't matter, i think to everybody's point. they see what they want to see.
they believe what they want to believe. right now -- >> to your point, you focused on the iw and russell 2000. i ran the numbers on "power lunch," gained more than 25% in a week. >> no -- >> jumped 25% in five days. >> but again, back to positioning and back to sentiment. >> it's not true. i think -- maybe not 25%. but their business prospects, without a doubt changed from eight days ago. no question. >> i'll throw it back at you. if you look at the best retailers, names like khan, some stocks that have been beaten up. i'm not calling khan is a low-quality company, but a low-quality stock. is this hedge funds -- >> the semi rally, we saw, you can make an architect, the semiconductors are still relatively cheap. when you look at the earnings, the earnings in the semi space has really been manufactured
earnings and the space is doing really well based on expectations and m & a. i look at the semis and say they will continue to rally and do well until the end of the year. will they pull back to your point, tim? they may. but it's by the dip. >> it comes back to what was working before the election. and value overgrowth was absolutely the trade. at least for the last six months. but to me, i'm back in nibbling back at an at&t and verizon. and i still think, by the way, there is a reach for yield. if you look -- i said, i pointed out the performance of xlf, xlt, since monday. at&t, verizon, other yield plays, even a clorox up 2 to 3% to 5%. and i think that is still something -- >> excellent point. 2.4% ten-year is still not the dividend yield for the s&p 500. >> i stayed long all the names that i had bought. i didn't sell anything. unusual for me. you would think i want to sell everything. clr, still -- that's the -- >> what is clr? >> continental resources, a pure play on oil going higher, going
to trade that into the opec. we had some news on that today. i think that's the way to play. it's not an all-time highs like the other names are. iwm and xlf, and i'll hold on those for the seasonal rally. >> i took a little off today, and i think that some of the names that have worked out, like the amazons took a little off just from a trading perspective, very short-term. >> is amazon down 15%? >> what's that? >> off its highs? >> absolutely. but the run the last week. >> again, i'm curious. you're taking some off now? >> monday end of the show, we talked about amazon being a name you want to own. trading at 710 bucks. i think it closed at 765 to do. i think it's a very significant move in that name. >> so you're calling for an imminent bankruptcy? >> not at all. it took some off, but be looking to buy back -- the reason it came off, crm earnings. >> salesforce.com. >> and look at the stock, up roughly 3-ish percent? kind of shows something. i would have thought that stock would have been up a lot more on
the quarter that they have. >> i love this show. you guys talk ticker, a whole new language. >> a 5:00 show. we throw it around here. ksu and then what's the other one? we talk about kansas city the day after the election. tim said specifically, mr. trump will be more conciliatory towards mexico. the stock is off to the races ever since. u.s. bank corp, to me, the most conservative bank out there if you want a conservative bark r bank, all-time high today, those still work. >> so what is next for the u.s. economy, under president-elect trump from the earliest days of his presidential campaign, group chairman and ceo, john mcnabb, banging the drum on donald trump and to make america great again, as a member of the trump leadership council, credited with delivering victories in key states like north carolina, west virginia. john mcnabb, thank you very much for joining us. you probably heard our conversation, and, you know, the idea is that because the gop controlled the senate and the house and now the white house, it's going to be this smooth
ride. we both know d.c. does not work like that. even people in the same party have different agendas. what is job number one and how you're going to get it done? >> well, job number one is to put a government in place that works. you saw that mike huckabee, i think, will be our -- the new ambassador to israel. beautiful, in my opinion. mr. sessions, jeff sessions, will end up as attorney general. great. i do like the two people that will work with mr. trump in the white house, his advisers. i think mr. trump, and i said this at the rnc, on cnbc. i said that the difference in the obama administration and what mr. trump will do, when he gets elected, and i said at that time, is that he will put seasoned people around him, solid business-minded people, who really haven't been in the swamp, but know how to make things happen. >> yeah, and i think we're going to see that, john. but let's get back to the
economy. we hear a lot about, quote, fixing the economy. when it raised gdp growth, raised job growth. raised wage growth. how do you do that, how does donald trump actually get that done? >> so what he does -- it's -- it's pretty simple, i think. first of all, this is an overregulated country. the free enterprise institute ranks the u.s. 16th in the world in free enterprise. it's ridiculous. so what's happened over the last eight years, there has been a proliferation of regulations, and they really are job-killing regulations. some of the areas like the epa, the irs, and go through some of the other agesncies, have becom so politicized. the military is politicized at this point. all you do is put the right people in place, you cut back on the regulations, and what that does -- america has an interesting economy, as you
fellows know. and the interesting thing for me with the economy is, emotion makes a big difference. when people start feeling good about their situations, they will spend more money. >> so you're talking about a political change. but some of the issues we have are really economic problems. so let's take coal, for example. the reason why coal has declined is an economic reason. we don't need as much as we used to. how is a political solution going to fix an economic problem? >> so what you do with coal is, you continue to -- i think what -- and what we said to mr. trump, and i'm an economic adviser, policy adviser, on the oil and gas side, by the way. and so what we said to him and encouraged him to think through, is let's get a level playing field for all sources of energy. coal plays a part in that. now coal won't have the part its had back in the '20s, '30s and '40s during the wars. i think with research, we'll end
up with a cleaner-burning fuel. if the russian scientists are right, and by the way, we're having a cooling of very rapid cooling in the world right now. and so i'm not sure that the green power thing works. and this is just back to business. so if you think about oil and gas, i'm all for -- and i'm the only gas guy, so obviously, i'm going to feel this way. i'm a continental director, as you well know. and a great friend and colleague of harold hamm. i think what we ought to do for energy independence is continue the fracking. but let us do it safely, let's conserve our water. what we do with fracking these days is we then recycle the water back into the formations. so we can keep using the same water. but this goes through a lot of different industries. so there is a political aspect to this. and clearly, cutting back regulations is political, but it also -- it will impact businesses. >> john mcnabb, it's a pleasure to get you on the show, sir.
have a great weekend. enjoy asheville. >> my pleasure. and i will do that. thank you. >> all right. there you go. clr. continental resources. >> making me money. >> i am a little shocked that an oil and gas guy would promote oil and gas. but -- is there a trade there? >> i'll tell you what. i think gave johnson credit -- i'm not trying to be pejorative. give him some credit for seeing through the noise around the election. clearly, it was easy to focus on a lot of things that trump said, rather than things he might do. so the things that john is talking about in terms of the subtleties of the changes and confidence in this country, and if you want to look at economic data, it's not going to change overnight. but the consumer confidence and business confidence will change the way things get done. >> yeah, and i think he's exactly right. emotion, psychology, confidence, they all matter. on deck. american airlines or airlines, rather, just another hot sector this week. we will dig into whether there is any value left. however, after some of these big runnells. the dollar soaring to new highs.
will it be a wrecking ball for u.s. stocks? no, is the short answer. and later on, there is one stock your traders think you need in your portfolio to make sure you end 2016 on top. we'll reveal that name. "fast money" still ahead. "fast" is going bear hunting. catching wall street's biggest bears to find you the next great trade. >> i'm gonna kill the bear! >> that's all next week on "fast money."
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looking at live video of the president-elect, donald trump, arriving at the trump national golf course in bedminister, new jersey, expected to stay the weekend. he's got a residence there. it's about -- kind of out near why guy adami lives. if you're not familiar with the area, maybe 60 miles west by southwest of manhattan. a big golf course out there. >> beautiful. >> intersection of 287 and 78. >> route 202, 206. to your point -- >> ringo's. >> he's asking a question. >> donald j. trump, arriving at the donald j. trump national golf course in new jersey.
a news alert on facebook. let's get to dominic chu, who is in the news room. >> i have played at least 18 holes of the 36 they have at bedminister, and it is very much an exclusive part of the new jersey area. it's not a golf resort so much as a private golf club. anyway, those shots obviously first and foremost here for the political scene. but facebook shares i'm watching because they're catching a bit after hours. the board of directors authorized $6 billion in stock repurchases. it's going to start the first quarter 2017. doesn't have a fixed expiration date. perhaps no surprise for what many call a growth company that is showing signs of maturity. it's got a $340 billion market value. $29 billion in cash and short-term receivables. shares of facebook have lost around 11, 12% since the record highs back on october 25th. according to fact set, 90% of analysts still have a buy rating on the stock and a price target 33% above current levels. separately, the company also announced the resignation of its chief accounting officer.
effective february 17th next year and has searched for a full-time replacement is starting to take place now, guys. back over to you. >> all right,dom, thank you very much. bk, let's trade facebook. >> so listen, you're probably for a trade going to be okay with this. the way it's come off. now you have the buyback. but the problem is, this is supposed to be a growth company. so it doesn't give me a lot of confidence that they're finding areas to growth that they're going to take to grow, taking $6 billion and buying back stock. it's fine. not going to get hurt on this. but not really exciting in terms of what's happening. >> i think it's -- this is it still a massive growth company. they grew revenues from, 58%. >> they just admitted the add metrics may be wrong. fake news out there. >> facebook has -- what is it, $1.6 billion users? is that -- >> 1.7 -- >> they are so far ahead of the curve. i'll tell you this. i can walk you through -- my opinion, they sand bagged earnings. you're down 33%. i think he said 33% price
targets above where it's currently trading. they didn't want numbers to get away. i think they actually on the last report talked about -- numbers and try to guide the street down a little bit. i think they're fearful of numbers getting too aggressive. this stock is a buy. load up on it. >> load up, it's a buy. can't be more clear than that. still ahead, the dollar rally raging on, and it could mean big trouble for one stock. just one. one only. we're going to tell you what -- what has our traders so worried. ahead of that, here's what else is coming up on "fast." expecto patronum! >> yeah, what he said. harry potter might be about to work his magic on shares of time warner. why investors are betting on a blockbuster weekend. plus -- need help catching up with the rally? the traders have the one stock you need to hit the ground running until the end of the year. much more "fast money" still ahead.
warner bros. set for a blockbuster weekend. they have a movie out tied to the harry potter empire. julia boorstin has more from l.a. >> hey, brian. warner bros. "fantastic beasts and where to find them" already grossed another $23 million overseas. based on jk rowling's spinoff, it's the first in a five-film series about a magical zooologist chasing his creatures. the film costs a reported $180 million to make and is projected to gross more than $200 million worldwide this weekend. setting the stage for new franchise for warner bros. and for its soon to be parent company, at&t.
>> we're moving to a world of global distribution of content using technology. and big franchises matter more in that world, because you can sort of use that content, use those franchises to support existing businesses, existing platforms like at&t wireless. >> it's not just time warner and at&t that could benefit. the films could also drive more interest in the attractions billed armed potter, the wizarding world, and hollywood. and they're also a range of partners on board to boost awareness, including amazon, enabling users to unlock content. and android users using google's voice assistant. back over to you. >> all right, julia, thank you very much. and have a great weekend. we have a deal happening, theoretically, although donald trump mentioned it may be the deal -- might be at risk. any trade here on time warner? >> time warner has been very interesting. at&t, though, to tim's point, the selloff has been significant
enough from about 46 to 34.5, 35, where that could be worth the look. i know that chase for yield might be over. but valuations now might have taken over. >> and i think with valuations, the two places you have to go in media are cbs and viacom. and i think if anything, also the time warner deal said some parts means you want to go places and maybe think the content is down. i think it's worth a shot. >> i agree. i think cbs and viacom are the places to be in media. i wouldn't be buying time warner here. >> there you go. so in lieu of the final trades, we asked our traders, what stocks could create a little magic for your portfolio with some blockbuster returns. tim, let's start with you. what is your spell-binding pick? >> by the way, i don't plan on seeing that movie. no one probably chairs about that. jetblue, still very disruptive, a blockbuster in its own -- i think industry. and that segmented industry continues to be a place these guys are ramping up capacity. sometimes that's bad. guess what? the entire sector has had a big run. jetblue is the most oversold, because expectations were these
guys were building capacity too fast. i think you should be taking a look at this stock. >> jetblue. bk. >> well, for me, you've got to look around what's happened in the last eight days. macro trading is back. where do people trade macro instruments? cme. around 110. i would be a happy guy. >> david? >> all right. well, this is a magical trade. alexi alexion. this stock is pricing in armageddon. 20 to $30 off since this news has come out. priced in, two indications next year, in my opinion. this stock setting up well. >> how severe are the problems in the 10q? >> hey! >> i -- sales practices. and i know that that's very concerning. >> pyramid-shaped. >> and people are pricing in. >> to trade. >> brian -- >> on behalf of all of us, i think -- >> what a great job. bravo.
>> 10ther bee's have a kickin' knew ceo. big short interest. b.i.d. >> all right, guy adami, thank you. thank you for making it easy on me. stay tuned. i'm not done of the most of them are. "options action" begins right after the break. $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley oh caroline. so corporate put you up in a roadside motel. but with directv from at&t, you can download then binge watch your dvr'd shows from anywhere. that makes you more powerful than whatever it is you just stepped in.
still live in times square. as the "options action"s crew gets ready behind us, why don't we see what's coming up on the program? >> 3, 2, 1, liftoff! >> that's pretty much what stocks have done since the election. but if you missed the run to new highs, we've got a way for you to play catchup with one mega cap tech stock. plus, call it king kong versus godzilla. that's because the strong u.s. dollar could be a headwind for a handful of widely owned stocks. and we've got the name poised to get hit the hardest. and --