tv Fast Money CNBC March 8, 2017 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
very, very lore interest rates says future returns will be very low. maybe that's radically wrong. >> quite grim. >> these are cycles, hopefully. not necessarily forever. >> a lot of interesting stuff from peter thiel. thank you for joining us, as always "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market overlooking new york city times square. tonight a bond blood bath after a blowout. and the fed rate like looming next week. we've got your pro growth play book. plus, snap rebounding after david tepper said he would guy stock. roger mcnamee said he might want to wait bit. he'll be here to explain. and bob iger sticking with the company, but it is what else he said at the shareholder meeting had everyone talking.
we'll hear from him later this hour. first we start with a crude crush. oil down, having its worst day in more than a year. sinking to its lowest level. it came in quadruple of in what it expected. the dow s&p and russell all ending the day lower with tonight nasdaq closing slightly higher. is the crude decline the first real crack in the trump trade? what do you say? >> no. the crude crack trump trade bond bash, we love alliteration today. the crude crash, for two months we've been at record longs. you have a lot of reasons why guy should be skittish. nigeria is coming back online much more than expected. iraq will be 5 million barrels by the second half of the year. and we have the number for oil. i would not be spritssed to see oil pack at least half these
losses tomorrow. this is not the time to jump out the window. >> there are a lot of comments. why today? we have other two months of inventory built. we know we have the record longs. it was the saudi oil minister who came out and said, the cuts are taking, the opec kruts taking a lot longer. he said these levels are making shale come back online a lot faster than people anticipated. so the translation is oil is going lower. because they don't want to encourage shale to get back on. so i don't think this is a crack in the trump trade. and i would say on some levels, it is probably pretty the decent for the consumer in the u.s. if you got $70 oil, that would put another head wind on it.
>> it's not a crack in the trump trade but absolutely. it is probably up 5 to 10%. i would wait before i step in to buy any oil or energy equities. the bottom line is this was a pogs sort of risk-off trade. the commodity is a crowded long in the face of a rate move. of course you'll have questions about where the dollar is going. so people took risk down. you look at some of these lower quality names. they were the ones that formed worst and it is mainly because of financing and the income on these guys. >> one of the things i've been saying, the place to be, these names like petroleum. that's been dead wrong for about a month or so. that's rolled over. it is a double ende eed leverags a double edged sword. right now, they had a call today. they gave guidance yesterday.
and a production guidance wasn't great. in my opinion, if you want to play it. absolutely it has to hold $60. that's where we took off back this november. that is a critical level. if crude has another move to the down side, i'm not saying it does or doesn't. it could get very dicey. >> zero cash on the balance sheet. $5 billion in cash on the balance sheet. so you look at it structurally. we're in a different period of time. so probably until we start to see draws. two draws on crude. then you guy equity. probably mayish time frame. >> but you have another dynamic which is the dollar. we have a strong dollar. falling oil. we have a massive decrease in oil. i don't think you have to rush and buy these equities any time soon. i think there's a lid on the price of oil. and if you get that perfect storm again, you could be in real trouble. >> there another shoe to drop? with the decline in oil, could we possibly see trouble in the
credit markets? >> this is most important thing about this. if you want to get worried about it. a circular trade, people worried about the credit space and the impact on the banks, and this was something i think was overdone at the time. there are places where there are balance sheets. you talked about which balance sheets have repaired themselves. a lot of them have. they were hedging crude at 50. they weren't getting in the upside. i think something to worry about, look at the j and k, hyg, the two that tracked the high yield market. you've seen this in the past. we weren't expecting growth. it comes on a day when adp was very strong. maybe the world is different. if you don't have growth, credit is under a lot of stress. i don't think today's oil move is that. >> i agree with tim of as much as it pages me to agree with him. i don't think today's oil move was an okay growth.
we had a great jobs number. a great adp number. the we have gdp below 2%. 1.2%. i don't know where anybody is getting thought excite bmt the growth trade the. i know we have priced in a lot of growth but it is not chilling up of. >> at all. >> we saw it in the jobs today. >> pmi -- they've been on fire. multiyear highs in terms of the industrial -- >> i'm saying -- >> the question you may be trying say are. we positioned right now for a, could it get any better? is there only disruption or down side risk in. >> that's my point. i don't know if it is 1.5 or 2%. he know people are talking 2% growth. so if you get any hint there is a problem with that, the way people are positioned, you get a market dislocation. >> for more on what could it
mean for the markets, merrill lynch joins us on the fast line. >> to hear from you. >> could not current with this we saw a leg lower in hyg. >> there's a lot of factors to try to isolate the specific reasons for why the market, or why high yield is selling off. we've had lower oil prices, higher rates. i think a good point brought up. you have the great growth expectations. whether or not we'll be able to meet those in the face of a fed that has, just as they're going to height. what is the answer? the energy side of the story is not the answer. you had 26% of the market default last year. the energy come that's are left in high yield are much higher quality than they were when oil went to 26 on february 11th.
their access to capital is much better than it was this time last year. so i don't think the sell-off we've seen in high yield is really an energy oil related sell-off at this point. obviously, if oil prices continue to fall, if you have border adjustment, we might have a different story. for now i don't think that's what it is. i think it is a rate story. >> i think it is a rate story. >> so what do you see now? you like lower quaut more than higher quality. >> we do. for the first time in a while. that's because higher quality, high yield is the most rate sensitive it has ever went. and trades at post crisis types. think about that, june 2014 when high yield was yielding just 4.5%. trading at those levels today. and when rates go up, the incent
dwroif earn credit risk at miniscule levels goes down. so high quality, high yield. getting crushed. as you go down risk factor, because of that anticipation for strong growth. they are outperforming. lower quality debt is outperforming. but not making up for the rate story on the higher quality. so one is not offsetting the other. >> great to hear from you. >> thank you for phoning in. >> so. does this make you feel better that it is not going to cause a ripple effect? so the trump trade is still on in. >> i don't think the trump trade has been off. i think it is still on. the s&p was down 5 or 6. again, all the china risk. maybe tomorrow is a different day. we'll see. this is how i would look at it going forward.
i think common a year, year and a half ago was two months ahead of the crude rise. if you look at i, exxon is probably a month and a half two two months ahead. it was a $95 stock many december. now it is an $yunl stock and crude is rolling over. i think dan talked about it a number of times. if you see exxon start to turn the corner the other way, maybe that will lead crude to the change- upside. >> i didn't do anything in oil. i don't think we're at a huge decline in oil. i don't know yet. this is how it starts. if you are in some of these things. way to play oil on the upsize. you want to be out of that now. you don't even want to catch it. >> shored mit cap. >> small and mid cap.
probably take a leg down and don't forget. you won't see a snap back rally like we did last year because of positioning. it is just long exposure that has come off. people won't jump race back in to get exposure on the upside. >> adp numbers tell you there's growth. the pmi numbers tell you there's growth. i don't know where it will come in. that's the whole things. confidence is very high. small caps. i've told you that i was putting more shorts on it. >> on a day like today, em trades very well. that tells you this is a growth rally. it is not a time run for the hills. this is things people wanted to see. the fed may go three thims year can. >> coming up, david tepper's stocks soaring. plus, the kroflt of adidas said it is diving head first. should nike shareholders be running scared?
we'll explain. and bob iger speaking at the shareholder meeting today. and spoiler alert, he will stick around for a bit. it is what he just said about president trump that has everyone talking. e*trade's powerful trading tools, give you access to in-depth analysis, and a team of experienced traders ready to help if you need it. it's like having the power of a trading floor, wherever you are. it's your trade. e*trade duexperience our mostand perforelevated suvs ever.
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adidas soaring today. it plans continue to crease the investments in the u.s. market where it continues to put pressure on top competitors like nike and underarmour. >> we double our foot wear share in 2016. we spent a lot of energy in investing not only in our headquarters in the u.s., building the right infrastructure support, our e-com structure, and dick's sporting goods or foot wear. along the entire chain, we're capable of investing and really winning and you can see it in our growth. we grew 30% of the u.s. we doubled our foot wear market and we are it's making sense to the u.s. consumer. >> so is adidas trouble for nike and underarmour?
>> absolutely. they should be shaking in their shoes. >> ha ha ha! >> no punned intended. >> you look at i and say their earnings were okay but they beat guidance. they guided much better than the street expected. you look at the operating margin. they crushed it in china. western europe, they did well. 18% operating margin. u.s. dealing with an operating margin, that could go to 12. so they are coming after underarmor hand over fist. i would not be long underarmor. i would be long adidas. >> why are they shaking in their trainers? >> it has been restructuring. >> everything you said is support for the industry. >> they're western europe. >> what about the north american numbers is.
>> the north american numbers will be enkroexed by adidas. >> what's doing that? >> it is taking -- >> a stronger management team. much better strategic initiatives thank not the way they're going after it. better advertising and a different attack. they haven't focused on the north american market. >> you walk up fifth avenue. the flagship store. walk in there sometime. a stock to own this year. >> just like the under armor stock. that will tell you everything. i would not want to catch this falling knife. i don't think it is done yet. i think that kevin plank will turn it around but for right now, there are massive head winds. with eps growth 13%-ish, it is
hard to make a comparative value. i would say, until their inventory, the last quarter inventories were up 9.5%. sales growth was about 6.5%. until it starts to equal out, i think the stock will be under pressure. >> i own nike. and i don't have as big a position as i did. i agree valuation isn't great and these disappointing numbers. they have more product channels than any other major brand. this is a duopoly. >> the stock on own. >> okay. >> the day they announced earnings and the stock broke $50. the question was, nike? nike was discounting, they're high end basketball shoes at that time and the writing was on the wall for a deceleration in
sales and encroachment from competitors. you are looking at a company that is focused on north america. >> here's a question. you've been known to get into turn around plays. right? it's been, what? ralph lauren. restoration hardware. >> i'll tell you why. you've had five major executives leave this company in the last 12 months. that's a company that i think is moving in a direction that will stabilize. i think underarmour gear and some of this is heavily discounted. i think that's a problem for the brand. >> tj maxx. >> can i say one thing? unless you're like an argentinian footballer, you shblt be wearing adidas. >> why? >> because i just said it. >> have you gone to a soccer
field in the united states? >> i have not. >> the only guys wearing adidas, bfs 30 years ago. >> in my adidas. >> that's just a psa from your "fast" moi money" friends. >> does that mean you won't wear adidas? >> is that a contrary indicator though? >> it could be. >> right. until the day you snap. speaking of this, still ahead. snap bouncing back. is tight expensive to own? roger mcnamee is here to weigh in. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> rates are taking off and that could be great news for three sectors in particular. we'll explain. plus, disney had a shareholder meeting and guess what? bob iger is staying. but there was another piece of news that could be important for
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here's what's coming up. roger mcnamee is here and he'll tell us at what level he might be tempted on buy snap. plus, disney ceo bob iger talk everything from trump to star wars. we'll bring you the comments. first we start off with today's blowout private sector job growth senltding the ten-year growth soaring. this morning, i asked david tepper if he was short bonds.
here's what he said. >> you bet your be hiney. it is a technical material for high conviction. so he and his hiney are correct. how do you position your portfolio? this is what we would call a pro growth portfolio. i think you'll get rhetoric from president trump and this stock at $35, i think the down side is potentially $30. i think the upside is back to what we saw months ago. i'll take that risk. >> you're not pro growth. >> i'm not necessarily in the pro growth. you have to show to it me. we've already priced it in. shob short, you don't need to necessarily buy into the program. we have the fed who is going on
raise rates. probably more than people expected. >> because they say there's growth. they've been wrong ten years. >> i think they're right. if they've been wrong for ten years, there's growth. >> they should have raised rates in 2011. >> why? >> because we had growth back then. that's when you raise rates. you don't raise them now. >> we're at multiyear highs. the job market is tightening to a place. >> that's a lagging indicator. >> small business confidence, consumer confidence. there are things out there. >> you're still saying that you can be short. >> still short bonds. >> i would argue that there's a positive bias in yields. but 10 sperse on the set talking
about being short bonds. i understand that trade. but what is the rate of change? how much higher will the yields go in the near term some i don't see them running away. i don't see it getting to 262, 263. >> what about that? >> think of the move over the past month. a massive move. >> time-out. pro growth portfolio. >> when i look at the construction growth. when is running, i want to buy commodities. they benefit in that time of environment. i don't think you have to buy it like crazy but you're getting a pullback and a lot of the industrial metals names. >> for more, let's bring in the senior strategist from wes fargo. >> good to see you. >> you are having a heated debate. >> you think there's growth.
the problem is that some of them have had nice runs. >> well, it will be tough to find, we've liked industrials like financials. we've liked consumer discretionary until recently. but i think here's the story for us. you want to to look pro growth. probably the troiks our outlook is to the upside. not a lot. but for us, and we've talked about this before when i've been on the show. we're looking for the noorkd trade at the top end. 23.30. a couple months early. i don't think we're too far from the top for this year and i think we'll end up in the 2230, 2330. i think net, net. this will be not a very large gain for the s&p 500. and 2018 might be better. we're not there yet.
you want the lean toward the more cyclical sectors. the cycle isn't over but this is probably about the top for this year, i think. >> i think people at home might be confused. you think we're close to the gains put in for the year. yet you still want to clean on these cyclical sectors. why wouldn't you want to take profits and be defensive? >> i mentioned, we backed out of technology. that workt oed out for us. the pullbacks we were expecting. i don't think we'll see 2,200 or a touch below that. ours are to the mid point of our range. 4% pullback. the 5%, something like that. had you on the desk can move fast and 4 or 5% moves. but you have to remember.
retail investors move a little bit slower. we want to tell them that stocks have more gas in the tank before it is all over. we're underway utilities and staples. i don't see that very much. a 5% pullback for us, we won't do much on that. >> hey, scott. i'm curious. at what yield do you tell your retail investors to get very zmaushs is it 5%? 3%? where do you get very concerned? >> well, our fixed nik team is looking for the 2 to 2.5 out of the year. they're looking for two rate hikes. it seems like we'll get one next week. i think from an interest rate perspective, a fed conversation kind of perspective. if the fed starts talking about
in a 12-month forward kind of move. hey, we're a little behind the curve. we've got to do four, five hikes over the next few months. for us, the head winds in the second half, a little fear of some wage inflation in 2018. a little general inflation and the fear the fed is behind the curve. for us, that's the head winds in the second half. and i don't think it is a yield point. but certainly, it is more of a feel, is the fed behind the curve and are they going to have to catch up here. we'll probably grow, maybe 225 next year. even though they're just trying on normalize. they have to be careful. >> scott, good to see you. >> have a good afternoon. >> you too. >> it sounds like recipe by the banks to me. in a scenario where you have rates going higher. it can lock down and become much more hawkish.
i like the banks. we talk about the kre. >> guy, first to the market. david tepper said we'll see more rate likes than anybody expects. the fed will be so behind the eight ball. >> he has been saying the fed, i think they went once. i think they'll go again in march, in a week or so ago and another two times had year. noble wants to talk about it. they think baton has been passed from monday taker to fiscal fwufl fiscal end. we might a baton with nobody to give it to. as long as it stays above 130, i think the market is okay. 160, those are the things that i watchful. >> scott gave you four buckets. the one i hike best is consumer discretionary. global brands, where they have
carved out a niche and they are not competing with both you about i can with about. >> european brands are cheaper. >> significantly cheaper and they pay deeper dividends. >> it is german. >> there's no y. >> it was apparently a very common name for a german. so around world war i and world war ii it was. derogatory term used for german soldiers. >> you need a addictiona dictio. >> coming up, roger mcnamee is here. he is walking out of the elevator. he has great timing. he's telling us if he would buy
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snap bouncing back after getting crushed the last two days. that's good for ceo david tepper who is still holding on to some shares. here's what he said on squawk box today. >> i'm not jumping through hoop to buy the 21.80. should it go closer to the original offer price, i would love to buy the stock there. i'm a believer in the company. it is a valuation question to me. >> so are snap shares too expensive at these levels? let's bring in one of the most successful tech investors, roger mcnamee. he joins us onset. good to see you in person. >> it is particularly good to be here for international women's day. and i want to encourage all the women out there, let's make every day international women's
day. >> amen. let's just get with the program. >> i feel awful for what i've been doing the last 40 years of my life. >> i've been meaning to talk to you about that. >> i was having a hard time trying to figure out how to break the ice. >> to get back on track now of. >> so snap is an amazing brand. what they've built with millennials, i think it is sustainable for a while. the thing you have to understand is that stocks and companies are really different things. this was one of the most beautifully timed and beautifully marked ipos in the history of humanity. and mr. tepper could prove to be correct in how to buy it and play it. it fees more like game of musical shares. you do not want to be the one owning the stock. it is an ad driven business model. right now, manning that all the advertising on cable television is on one channel. and there were no ads anywhere else.
that's more or less how snap chat is working today. i think they have a lot of new products. i respect them to do a qvc type product. how do you pay that for many model? as a stock, it makes no sense but i could be wrong about this. i'm going to sit back and watchful. >> so it doesn't make any sense at these levels? or at $17 a share? >> it's not about $17 or 24. it is about, you know, what you do you pay for an ad that driven mod that he will has losses still greater than the revenues? i don't think it will be true for long. i think they have broken the code. right now it is primarily the advertising they're getting is from the experimental budgets. so it is going to take a while. it will take years for them to build the kind of base that they need to support a high valuation. they may well get there. i just believe that all tech ipos that work, are sold, not
bought. you get to buy them below the price. generally speaking, fairly short order. i would anticipate would happen here too. >> facebook succeeded because they have multiple buckets to really garner user growth. twitter failed because they didn't explore it. they didn't make the correct acquisitions. snap chat is a one trick pony. >> but they're very young. >> that i believe there are ad products they can add to this. the way to think about twitter is that they were born perfect as a product the first day. and no one has had the moral courage to recognize that trying to do advertising on twitter would be like selling all the cnbc adds with the stock crawler at the bottom. if all the ads were at the bottom, they wouldn't be worth much. the minute twitter starts to do that, twitter will be more
healthy. i think snap chat already understands that. let's face it. they have $500 million revenues. up from zero in two years. that's amazing. but it has a market cap in the 20 billions. just too much experience for me to go and play there. but if you're a hedge fund or a mutual fund ask you're trailing the market, hope springs eternal. >> you can get allocation at 17. >> exactly. and they did under 5%. really unusually low. and i think that influenced the lack of follow-up by retail investors. they weren't paying that close attention. >> do they dominate?
microsoft has a serious effort in this area. we saw nine tendo do a remarkable thing and on smartphones in general. i believe augmented reality is a great opportunity. i think snap chat has very few advantages. how it happens is not at all clear. i wouldn't buy the stock on that basis. >> thank you. great to see you. elevation partners. >> is tesla spreading its wings in hawaii? phil joined us from the aloha state. >> hey, how are you? yeah. i did draw the short straw. relative to the future of tesla. especially when it comes to
power generation. it comes down to this. i am in front of a massive solar farm. how big? consider some of these statistics. nearly 55,000 solar panels spread out over 50 acres generating electricity that is then stored by 272 tesla power packs. that electricity is then discharged to the local utility at night when they would typically be using diesel generators. as a result, they believe they can save about $1.6 million gallons annually of diesel fuel. they won't have to buy it and instead get the power from these tesla power pack that's are here. as you look at tesla, the interesting thing tonight. there are analyst who's say these are nice products. the power generation. the power storage is not going to move the need well a company that primary is an automaker including adam jonas at morgan stanley who said it is helpful but not something that he
ascribes value to. we had a chance to walk the the chief tech anybodial office better jonalas' sveum. here's what he had to say. >> we think the chance for growing the sales and the number of projects we're doing here is incredible. we're just at the beginning of deploying storage and solar as well. >> it is locked into a contract through tesla energy where they'll be paying about 13.9 cents per keel watt hour. which is with a they would be paying if they were basically using diesel fuel to power these generators. we had a chance to talk with the governor of hawaii about his viewpoint. how important it is for
renewable energy almost 100% of the time. >> this is a prime example of being able to generation energy from clean solear and being abl to deliver it at night when the consumer wants it. >> that's govern ige. given that hawaii has become the first state that will be going to court to fight president trump's new travel ban, the one that has just been put forth by an executive order. we asked the governor about it. he said there may be a short term impact about what this means for hawaii's economy and how it might impact, but he believes they have to take a stand. they have to saenld signal to people all over the world that this is a country that welcomes people from everywhere. that they are not going to be banning people from sgooming the country. just a few comments. >> thank you. joining us from hawaii, you have
to wonder if the he also agrees with the second part, the cash burn. he thinks it will be materially higher. and it will be less than $800 million in cash. he says, hide the better be compensated for the growing strategic value of tesla. because they'll be burning cash along the way. >> completely agree with that. and i've been frustrated. he's saying they won't come close to this model they by 2019. he has it not happening until 2024. i'm not sure it is for everybody. >> it is north of a billion. they reported that quarter, i think, february 22. the stock was going higher. and it would have continued to
go higher except that elon musk came out and said, at some point it would be prudent to do it now. and would have rather, now it's just hanging out there. it will be very hard for the stock to announce. >> if they announce the secondary, the stock goes down. that's when you want to buy it. if you want to do a long early texas hedge. you buy tesla and short oil. >> what does texas have to do with it? >> they do everything bigger in texas. >> shares, disney shairs. something bob iger just said could have the stocks soaring.
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optimism for all divisions, even espn. which he says is getting ready to launch a direct on consumer streaming service. the big question hanging over the board meeting is what's next for disney's leadership. with no objection successor, iger talked about extending his contract. >> leading is both a thrill and the privilege of a lifetime for me and i grow appreciative of this 21st each passing day. as i reflect, and i realize that even after everything that we have achieved, the best days of the walt disney company are still ahead of us. that's optimism. >> front and center in the q & a as they protest on the biz advisory council. he said it is in the copy's best interests to communicate directly to the president. he would oppose trump's policies
in many cases. >> i don't believe the immigration policies singles people out because of religion are fair and just. that's just my position and the position i take on behalf of this company. that's just one example. i'm sure there are many examples of things that will come up. and i'm not going to agree with the administration on and i intend to express them. >> wasn't all serious. he also gave a sneak peek of the next star wars which had fans going wild. >> i've seen them right from the beginning. >> was he too optimistic? >> it was fantastic. >> the star wars. >> is he too optimistic? >> he was great in the first star wars. >> a war off the rails.
>> does he even talk about espn? no. huge cuts on espn. you might have read it although you've never watched it. continues to hold tween. it has had every opportunity. i think it revisits 120ish which was the all time high in the middle of 2015. >> it was interested that towed answer the question as to why disney would be on this advisory county. >> is this a good thing for the company? is trump going after disney? is this a negative for disney as far as administration? i don't think so. i do not believe that will be the case. i agree with guy from the standpoint that 110, 120 is the trade. i think espn that has been plaguing them is behind them. >> one trader is betting that i think heading even higher. >> the call options. 4-1 today. nine out of top ten most active
calls. the most active among them. paying about a dollar for those. those are bets. 44 days from now. however, since that doesn't capture may earnings, stretch out a little farther. >> what do you say on disney? >> it has very few cat lists. had it will be beauty ask the beast. next friday. reboot that one. >> check it out. >> there are times i think we have that on the desk with you. but it is a company that i think, look. the uncertainty is something that unever lingers on with espn. >> for more options action cherks it out on friday at 5:30. ♪ guyhey nicole, happening here?
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i'm long. you should be long. i think it's going to fly. >> panera bread. break it out. >> thank you for watching. see you back here at 5:00. "mad money" starts right now. i'm here to tlefl -- to level the playing field. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to -- tweet me at jim cramer. don't give up the ship. these are the last words