tv Fast Money CNBC April 19, 2017 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
is a lot of points you get back quickly. on the other side, i think there is brand recognition. i think amex has a bit of that elite you know brand recognition, so that's something to think about, too. >> mary, thank you. it's been a real window into what's going on in this country. i appreciate you joining us. i love the costume and the spirit. mary choo. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. onto the nasdaq markets overlooking new york city's time's square, i'm mellissa lee. tim see mohr, karen finerman, guy adami and steve najerian. american express, tsx all on the move, the headlines from their conference call later on in the show. plus, sales from china suffering their first drop in 27 years. though china got to experience it's own carmaged to don.
later, bill o'rilely is officially out at fox. first, the crude plush oil having its worst day, settling down nearly 4%. gas inventories in the u.s. jumped for the first time in two months, sparking demand worries. energy stocks by far and away the worst performance sector, following the commodity lower. when crude turned lower, the markets went along with this. let's put this in context. you stalled tax agenda, falling oil. it's a bad earnings reaction. in fact, ibm the worst performer on the dow, on its earnings today. so the perfect storm brooi brewing for stocks. steve, what do you say? >> when you look at crude, you look at the prism of the $50 mark. the stocks, the actual commodity. but i have been negative on krudz and crude stocks, feeling at the saudi aramco potential ipo has been a real setup. it's the biggest head fake for me. because every analyst, every buy
side is looking to get a piece of it. every sell side is looking to buy into that event. it's setting up literally for a perfect storm. i'm negative. there can be the market and crude but i do believe that it's time to take profits for everything that you just mentioned. i do believe that tax policy has taken a little bit too long. i believe that gdp. we thought those kroger policies were going to spark it are on hold. so i do believe it's time to take some profits. >> i look at crude oil, i actually look at brent. i think it's universal, i think you have a dynamic here, every time you get a bad inventory number. i think there could be fall tomorrow. i think technically oil there is a dynamic here. carter will talk about it. i will say this. i think we're at a playful position in oil. it's very differ than six weeks ago. when the oil was what i too short on oil. we had a nice rally back to the top. now there is a lack of conviction. the imf is out there with news, they're upgrading the global demand. they put a demand forecast. there is nothing on the demand
side that's a problem. it's people's concern about u.s. supply. think the rally of the u.s. supply coming back on as people expected is overdone right here. >> i sa you the gasoline earlier in the day. i'm surprised that some of the macro world events later in the day didn't cause buying. >> it's a buy disruption bid? >> yes. you have tillerson talking talk. you had, i don't know you had the story about the planes being moved in syria, to russian protected i guess air. i don't know, to me. >> maybe it is about u.s. production versus middle eastern supply chain upset. because those new stories have been around. we had syria for a while, iran for a while. you got libya. you got all these -- >> iran didn't, i don't know. >> i would have thought barely potentially. >> one more thing that we're going to find here and i think that oil next year is not necessary, oil, if anything, we're saying, this is oil
specific on small caps, look at trance morts, look at small caps were up today. they don't rally is growth is being shot. >> they are up in the big deal. >> that's exactly what i want to say. transports are higher. i thought ibm was higher a half a percent. yes, the dow jones was down. two-thirds of. that i don't know what it was, ibm. goldman sachs obviously as well. s&p was down four handles. so everything appears to be unraveling. yet the market, few look at the internal says totally the opposite. i agree, geopolitically typically transcends all this 12u6r. if you told me there morning all these things take place, where is crude going to be? i would say up 5%. i'll say this, exxonmobile. we talk about for a long time now has not traded well since december, made a 52-week low, to me, until exxon turns, maybe crude sort of language is here. >> you have been negative, right? what are you doing in response to that? >> so for me, i have those news
driven stocks that i own. i own monsanto, it's a news-driven stock. i do, if we are going to extend this energy conversation out a little further. it's been so set up and so negative right now, that you could see some earnings surprises going forward and you could see the dead cat bounce. i'm overall negative. but i'm staying long my core positions in my portfolio. >> talk about dak cat bounce. we barely saw anything, we saw day two of the goldman sachs, despite a city upgrade on valuation. we didn't see that come off as you might expect when you see the rest of the group doing well on the back of morgan stanley. later in the day, we saw financials fall as well. j.p. morgan is trading lower than before it reported earnings. think of that action. >> the first blush is always going to be based on the yield curve. we had a bounce this saw a bounce in banks. people had a chance to digest what the drivers are. if you are an environment, people want to believe the capital market business that gold man sax, historically the
bond king is something you should read across other platforms. i don't think it is. again, i think what you are seeing in goldman versus the rest of the sector is truly an outlier effect. that's not how i will be trading financials here. >> just to extrapolate, the yield curve, people are looking at that, are you saying, well the yield curve was stronger this morning or up this morning, sloped this morning. but the thing is, it's basically flattening. do we extrapolate that bigger data point into our market conversation? >> many people argued it doesn't matter, tim has said that. apparently it does not matter. >> which part of the curve? >> i'm sorry. we got a break in here. breaking news on bill o'reilly. let's go to julia boorstin. >> reporter: mellissa, right, bill o'reilly issuing a statement from his outsurf from fox news, saying, quote, it is tremendously disheartening that we part ways due to completely unfounded claims. but that is unfortunately the people in the public eye must live with.
today he says he will look back at his time at fox with great pride and the unprecedented success they've achieved. we will have more on o'reilly's departure later in the show. back over to you. >> thank you very much. i guess the unknown here is how this impacts stocks in the 21st century fox. what do you think, guy in terms of the ad dollars? >> they'll figure it out. there is a famous saying cemeteries are filled with people to replace. it's true. when you look, when megyn kelly left fox. they thought that time slot was going to get crushed. my sense is fox is doing just fine. energy the biggest loser, the chart master, they said this. >> energy's relative performance to the subpoena has been straight down. it's the trap that keeps on trapping. people are doing it, getting long two days. >> carter. >> since then energy has fallen more than 3%. carter, still the trap that keeps on trapping?
>> we can figure it out together. this is sort of the bottoming or maybe not, yes, action of the past two years. let me draw, if i could, what consensus has been. it's been this way for a long time. >> that we have this so-called head and shoulders. and at this neck line ultimately was going to be broken and that we were going to do that. . i would say, let's do it this way. how about? no. no it doesn't. it really doesn't, it doesn't set up like that. let's draw the line a different way. so what we have is, yes, head and shoulders it's going to happen, it has to actually follow through, complete the pattern. you can't dodtle. the longer you do, the symmetry has been lost for months. not only have we broken trend and rallied back to a lean and started to famter again. if you were to draw other lines
to put this in context, we actually have come into a very important apex and we are again failing right at that juncture. so the question is, but energy stocks. are they a good bet? and that's really where the rubber hits the road. this is a two-panel chart. what you have on the top is s&p energy, the gift sector, itself. you have a relative performance to the market. so we know even as it was growing up and even though it's well below its prior low, i mean, we're still so far above our absolute phases. look where we are on a relative basis. we're almost back at the lows. so even though one -- i'm up, but it's under flying the other choices. that's the worst thing you can do, in principle as a manager and investor. here's another way to look at it. since the entire low point of about a year ago, we know that energy stocks are up and their relative performance to the s&p is down.
that's what a trap is. it actually feels good or keeps it, you're thinking. all the while one is being sort of damaged. and then, what really is done, of course, this is going back to all data. at least as far back as some data services have. a lot of the lines i've drawn aren't random. this energy is making all time highs. right here, yes. crude was up at 100 pounds per barrel. energy stocks were never participating that. that is a definition of what a trap is. is this getting fixed? >> no. it's now the worst performing sector on the year, down 10%. let's look at numbers. forget about the year, what about the spire mark. '09 to 2017, as of today's close. we know on the top, look at the descending orders. okay. if i move to the next panel, we've got energy down here at 58% compared to the s&p at 210.
it's down again this year. there's something wrong with all this. i think it is the trap that keeps on trapping. i don't want to be involved long side. what do you think? 52 is broad? says it all. >> come on over. >> do you realize every button? >> you are amazing. it was the flying. there is flying. >> that is yet to be determine. >> you have to wear no in there. >> carter, we were having a discussion about what crews might mean the performance percentages that you showed were coincidence performance windows. in other words, the same time frame, right, for oil, stocks as well as ever other sector on the s&p. so those oils performance or energy stocks performance, does that, is that an indicator at all for future performances of the market? is it sort of an indicator? >> i don't know if it has been, you can think of it as economic sensitive and inputs. it might be i'd have to rely on this. one doesn't just step back and say what are the fundamental
also? maybe they cracked the code from both sides, which is to say, there is a lot more than we thought. we get it easier, trafficing, this electric car thing, maybe it is different, maybe it is a long -- saudis selling the goods? a lot of things for a layman to say, hey, wait a minute. this doesn't sound right. >> this performance in the space for a long time. if you had to put on a trade, would you be short energy versus long the markets? >> concerned. >> dollar neutral? >> if i get the equity and keep that on. it looks like it's structurally impaired and even the one, here's the other thing, there is so much hope, every time you get a four, five, $6 rally in crude. here we go. here we go. it keeps on keeps on luring in, myself, i think, this is the bottom. >> carter, do you remember, though, within can you make similarities with that inflation trade we all looked at. you can make a lot of comparisons to the chart you showed on crude, where it can't get out of its own way right now
and steel and copper. are we just not there yet for that dead cat bounce? or do you think it's nothd not trending? >> if you look at the performance, crude is well below copper, zinc. alluminum. they're bearish to bullish. crude kept sitting from that formation, never really completing it. which is, you know the trap part. >> so that means you can have an inflation trade with oil. can you have an inflation trade in the other stock, the track? copper? >> we seen very serious damage to zinc to nickel, to copper, all of them under fairly extreme pressure. >> i think one of the things we need to remember is you don't necessarily buy a stock, it's cheap. the sector, the positioning right now tells you, people did not want to have energy for a long time. i would disagree. i think people are pre disposed to being cynical to where oil is right now. i think in the united states,
people believe we are going to conquer the oil genie if not having already done that. >> is that not good for energy sector investing? it ultimately means there is a lot more supply. it hurts profit ante. >> it does. it doesn't hurt anybody. if you look at the megacaps, exxon, chevron, tends to be pushing very hard on that. >> i don't think you will get cheaper, i think anna darko, they are a better position for this oil price. >> carter, thank you, cornerstone macro. coming up, after the bell with all the stocks moving higher, but the flow charlottes earnings seasons, other big names, will earnings justify the rally? plus, bill o'reilly out at fox news after hosting the highest rated cable show for 15 years. we we heard o'reilly's statement calling the departure disheartening. we will bring you much more on that developing story later on. china's auto sales are suffering. it could be a major problem. there is one company that could emerge the big winner. we have a special report.
afternoon session. let's go to headquarters. >> overall a strong earnings report from tsx. weight volumes across most of the market. another bright spot is closely watched operating ratio with a deep consensus. csx with a rebound in commodities, specifically coal, which has helped boost rail traffic for the industry. it's also prompted some analysts to upgrade their ratings, not just on csx but other stocks. this is a new report. a railroad veteran, who came from canadian pacific. investors have been optimistic about this leadership change. you see shares of csx up 34% already in 2017, the stock higher as well after hours. tomorrow morning on the earnings call, we will hear harrison's first public remark as ceo. >> thank you very much. stephen body. i know you start every morning off with a glass of orange juice and the world street.
>> how would you know that? >> i'm guessing. >> skycam. >> you probably read the piece with csx. is so expensive. >> the journal? >> right. >> the "wall street journal." >> kidding. >> 25, 26 times pe. >> what was that just -- the valuation of csx calculated. you compare it to norfolk southern. they still perform. then you have to ask yourself a question. is this a breakout to buy or do you fade it here 50 bucks. i'm inclined to say fade at 50. the stock is too rich. you want to be in the rails. i still think kansas city southern is the best place to be. >> what's interesting, their ability to raise prices. i mean, that's as far as the bottom line, from the beginning of that, in which case, maybe the pe is not that expensive. >> theoretically, there is turn around stuff that could be pricing the stock here or two or not pricing. >> i have been mr. inflation. ly tell you this. a big part is their co-deals. if you tell me the call has
peaked. look what happened in iron ore coal prices. people are hammering china. this is not going to be so rosey. this is a backward looking corner. i know they will guide wherever they will guide. i don't know i will guide rails here. these valuations. i'm constructive. some of this has a chance to pull back. >> all right. let's have the move of the day. the goal minor is getting crushed. -- gold minor gets crushed. >> it was interesting, this should be the environment where gold has everything going for it. you have this dynamic, you get a weaker dollar, except today, the down trend, you got all this geopolitics. with the minors, everybody knows, these things trade 1.8 north of 2 sometimes. we're at a place where gold has a major move t. minors have not had pace. there are fundamental also and structural reasons they tend to under perform in this type of an environment. so not touching them. >> i'm still actually long gdx around this price right now.
there is a two or three-to-one performance on the out performance on the underlying commodity. but you need real administration of headwinds. this is not so much. it doesn't work with geopolitical. it definitely has not worked with that. >> whenever you see a tax plan or a health care plan, get shot down. that's when gold spikes higher. an interesting relationship, if you chart this, and bitcoin, you will see an inverse relationship between the two. what's bad for bitcoin is good for gdx. >> are you saying gold is a minor? >> i think you need to wait to get back to u.s. policy difficulties in d.c. and once you start to see that, because i know we're going to see that again, gold ships spikes higher, not with geopolitical, when you talk about iran, talk about syria. >> that's not going to do it for gold. >> i'm not saying it hasn't. so for me, i'm not hoping on
something that will change. i think when you see policy fighting. gold seems to spike higher. >> check out squares of qualcomm and american express. they are moving higher. we'll bring you all the details. i'm mellissa lee. you are watching "fast money," first in business world wide. in the meantime, here's what's coming up in the past. >> carmageddon continues. the first decline in 27 years. we'll tell you what it can mean for auto stocks and the market at large. >> do it live. >> actually, bill, we're not going to do it at all. because the king of cable is officially out. we'll tell you what it could mean for the future of fox and shareholders when "fast money" returns.
>> welcome back to "fast money". the dow is dropping 1 went fr20. here's what's coming up. auto stocks under pressure a carmageddon spread to china. later, it is the big story of the day, bill o'reilly out of fox after allegations of sexual harassment, he just issued a statement calling the situation disheartening. so what does the departure mean for the bottom line? does it signal a major cultural shift? we'll explain. earnings with, you are headed back to break down the after hours action. we have the details at qualcomm. we have the latest. josh, take it off. >> well, mem list sa, qualcomm
is heading higher here in the after hours. remember, this is the worst performing tech stock in the s&p 500. they have a big reason is that ongoing fight with apple. remember apple saying, in part, are you charging us royalties for technologies have you nothing to do with. qualcomm hitting back saying nice try. you built that iphone franchise off the back of our technology, now you want to pay less. qualcomm ceo talking about this fight on the call, take a listen. >> ultimately, this is about a contract dispute and business negotiation and we will work to reach the right resolution for our shareholders as we have done so often throughout our history. consider the strength of our product roadmap and r&d investments, we expect to be an important supplier to apple now and into the future. >> now, qualcomm goes on to say apple's contract manufacturers actually underpaid royalties in q2 because that under payment was equal to the amount that
qualcomm hasn't paid apple because this fight, remember, that's $1 billion qualcomm is saying. however, they go on to note so say it's not clear whether the manufacturers will under pay royalties again in the third quarter and because of that, that's why that q3 eps guidance range is a little wider than qualcomm, finally that bid, call com saying it is -- owe call com saying it is expect -- owe qualcomm saying it is expected to stay around for years. >> guy, what did you make of this quarter? >> i think it's a great quarter, it's way too cheap. obviously the apple stuff is weighing on stocks significantly. they seem to be turning the tablgs on them. i think if you are looking for a cheap tech name, for me, a great balance sheet, qualcomm is fine here. >> qualcomm plus and xpi at 11 times is a lot less expensive
than nvidia. >> i'd rather be in nxpi. you know the defined risk. qualcomm, i bought it originally in january off that gap lower. i bought it. sold it for a profit. got out because of these headwinds. i'm still in micron right now. >> i think qualcomm is derated over the last six months. if you look at 50 bucks on the stock that to me is having to play from a level, if you want to take a shot here. i think that's interesting. >> let's move on to american express. hi, deidre. >> hey, melissa. some opposing forces that work for amex. first the good news is that higher cardholder spending. and interest helps beat expectations. it did dusts off some of the impacts on losing the lucrative partnership with costco. the downside, amex spending rewards to keep up with. incredibly fierce competition. though the results beat
forecast, revenue has been declining for two years now. profit was down 13% year on year. now the main threat to amex's high credit card business is coming from the big banks. up with of the biggest battles in this state is between amex platinum card and jpm sapphire reserve card that has been a huge hit with millennials on the earnings card, the cfo acknowledged increasing competition. >> we still have work to do and the competitive environment, especially on the u.s. consumer remains intense. but we are focused on driving more volume under our network from our wide range of growth opportunities. >> now, as one of those opportunities is increasing loans, which campbell said on the call is growing faster than in the industry, thanks to success in growing them from existing customers and, of course amex will continue to offer ever more rewards to compete with citibank card but particularly sapphire reserve
cards, the latest package, be i the way, includes $200 worth of uber credits, which may not be something you typically seen from the high platinum cards. >> thank you, i was looking at that, myself. how do you read the report, whether it be american express, itself, or read through card businesses or for retail? >> well the other financial card businesses, even though they're big businesses, there are so many other businesses very big as well. you don't get a pure lay like you do here, i'm impressed actually. i think the competition is really intense and i think it's just going to continue. american express is not expensive here, but i think there is more to come in this war which doesn't bode well for them, although, it seems to be a nice jump here. i don't own it. i'm happy with j.p. morgan's card business. i like them overall, obviously. i think there is more room to run in their card business. >> people are looking for top line growth. these guys, if you strip down the costco numbers the costco contribution, this is up %.
it's the best quarter at a time when the competition is so good, these are good numbers. >> you recall. american express made it to the final of the "fast money." >> how can i forget that epic battle has been hard. >> yes. but i thought american express should have won. it's because the quarter they put up. it's because the valuation, not crazy cheap, it's not crazy expensive either. they seem to be turning things around. since they lost costco way back, back in the day. so i think they guided higher. their comps internationally seem to be doing a lots better. i think asp goes higher from here. >> asp for the year, if you look at vis sarks that's the out performer up 15 or 16 percentage points for the year. i'm playing this with a processor square. i have a long square for quite some time. it's up 26% year-to-date. maybe some of these guys, it's not their core business, maybe takes them out. you never know. >> earnings season in full
swing. results haven't been that pretty, goldman sax, johnson & johnson taking a hit, becking the question with the s&p trading at a 21 multiple. have the earnings justified the stock prices? scott rand at wells fargo investment institute joins us now. always good to see you. the on us teams e seems to be on the bulls in terms of the earnings report. you had to prove where you were in terms of levels on the market. what do you make of the action so far in terms of this season? >> well, this reporting season to me is going to be a lot like the last four, which really overall, you know, there's really not a lot of people paying attention to it in aggregate. you know, obviously, there is a lot of beats and misses, big ones on individual companies, but when the economy is growing about 2% on a calendar year basis, analysts can get pretty close. companies can get pretty close to where earnings are coming in. we fall in, you know, 8 to 10, 8 to 11% range, something like that in the first quarter.
that's all fine t. markets looking at this, hey, this is a confirmation. things are moving ahead modestly i don't think the markets can going to get too hung up on earnings season. the market is looking ahead to what might and could come out of walk, if anything. >> sure. >> one of the sectors that you are overweight, financials, are you disappointed with the price action on the financials after their largely good earnings report and how big of a headwind will the yield curve be for these guys? >> really, you know the financials, they've had a good garter so far, expected to have had a good quarter. overall, i think the entire play right there is this yield curve, it's flattening. you know, this ten-year yield has dropped like a rock. short-term rates will go higher. so you know, that itself not going to be great for financials. for us, you know, we thought this is not a six-month kind of a play, for us, you know, we're trying to position our clients in this thing. this is probably a 12-to-24 month kind of play. i think over that time, are you going to see this curve steepen.
i think financials will do better on that. i think they're going to see some better just gdp growth, better loan demand. better things to driver financials as a sector. so a little bit disappointed right now. not surprise given what's happening with the yield curve. >> hey, scott, essentially the financials are in for the longer haul, what sector do you think is more important out outside of the financials when people talk about what's leading what, you tell us what you are watching. >> tim, really what we're watching, we're still leaning towards the cyclical sect orms. we don't think the cycle is over. we like the discretionary sector. those earnings will be down. we like the health care sector and industrials, our look is, hey, you know, we expect better growth abroad, not a lot better, but better, a little bit better growth here. we expect better consumer spending. better business capital spending as we mover on down the road. so i think those are the sectors. those four sectors along with
the financials that i mentioned are the ones that we're leaning towards. we don't want our clients getting defensive here because we don't see the end of the cycle. >> right. >> you know, this 2.3 gdp we think we will see. >> that will be driven by cyclical earnings. if it's not, you know, then we're a lot closer to a recession than we would think we were. >> scott. thank you. good to see you. >> all right. thanks, guys. >> scott rand, wells fargo investment institute. guy, adami, you want to be positioned the way scott is in terms of overweight cyclical sectors. >> your question about financials, i thought the price action speaks volumes. j.p. morgan was fantastic. the quarter was excellent. goldman sachs quarter was lousy. clearly goldman sachs specific after we hear from morgan standly today, lousy price action. now the entire space is starting to roll over. if you think goldman sax for whatever reason is the leadership in the group. i submit it is. j.p. morgue isn't taking that
crown. you have a major double top now in goldman sachs going back to halloween of 2007 and the recent high of 253. so technic amy, it does not bode well for this space. >> hmm, what did you do today, ka in? >> i didn't do a 4r09. i have big bank exposure. it hasn't been great the last mochth, or six weeks. but i'm hanging on. i think there is a lot of things happening in the industry, they've moved, obviously the multiples have moved. but they have been so cheap for so long that i think that's sort of a real move going forward. >> i think that you are seeing that reversion trade. so financials outperforming, energy up, industrials up. so scott's longer term, he's still bullish. if you look at what's working right now, i think your longer in with financials performing and it probably drags the overall market lower. >> financials to me i think look fantastic. these banks are built for speed right now, if you get any real kick up. i think interest margins are going high. i sa you the emerging markets
too to me, very important. i've had a pretty strong view and a long view on that. i took some off the table. >> still ahead, china's auto sales experienced tear first drop in 27 years, many auto stocks trading at year-to-day lows, with prices in. bill o'reilly out at fox amid sexual harassment allegation, what does that mean for the future of fox and its shareholders? we explain when "fast money" returns. freaks her out. how come no one likes me, jim? intel does! just think of everything intel's doing right now with artificial intelligence. and pretty soon ai is going to help executives like her see trends to stay ahead of her competition. no more sleepless nights. - we're going to be friends! - i'm sorry about this. don't be embarrassed of me, jim. i'm getting excited about this! we know the future. we're going to be friends! because we're building it.
welcome back to "fast money". united representals are moving lower in the after hours session. >> a big move over here, united rentals sinking in after hours trade despite guidance also came in positive for rental rates seem to be getting attention by traders. the ceo saying in the release, while our rental rates remain under pressure, they continue to support or reaffirm stand agree loan 2017 guidance. he.ed to positive trends in their up stream oil and gas business after the headwind space over the last several years. again, shares are down more than 5%. melissa. >> seema, thank you. they have been in and out over the years. >> in and out, covered 121 or
122. i think a couple things are going on here. i think that rates being under pressure or not having as much upside as people hope, that's a bad thing. i think the gdp expectations being a little lower. that's bad as well. so much of this huge run was infrastructure hopes. i think you have to think that is less likely than three months ago when this stock really took off. >> do we read through? how do which read through to caterpillar or the names of the companies that make the equipment? >> i think it would be a bit of a negative, casts a little different, a uk company would be a direct comp. >> yeah. >> sam? some space? >> i think the space has gotten a lot of enthusiasm over the expectations for cisco. if you look at construction, though, in this kuptd, it's doing just fine. that's a slowly and slightly resurge in having this sector. i don't think you went out the door. >> now to the autos, carmageddon
is rising, toyota lost auto sales in nearly three decades. phil lebeau with this story. >> reporter: thanks mellissa with a wet and windy shanghai auto show is whether or not we will see negative auto sales here in china. take a look at china and u.s. annual auto sales over the last six years. can you see china is equally way ahead of the united states, selling more than $23 million last year. but this year, sales are up just 2% a. couple of things are weighing on the industry here. first of all, you got a higher vehicle tax hurting demand, meanwhile the auto makers continue the supply, in fact, inventory is building umm. there is a price for that it's broken out along the entry level suv maker. that's cutting into profitability. here's one country to take a look at. ford. its sales down 21% in march. ford is playing in that mass market, especially when it comes to suvs. the company is still optimistic about annual auto sales. but it's one that people are keeping an eye on. another company to watch, tesla.
last year it tripled its sales here in china. remember it reports its first quarter earnings on may 3rd. while the company doesn't break out sales by country, there will be plenty of questions on the conference call about the strength of demand here in china. that's the story from here at the shanghai international auto show. melissa, back to you. >> all right, thank you very much, phil. get dry. in terms of the terrible charts, we have seen all sorts of concerns about auto loans, about the falloff in used vehicle prices so what do you make of the auto manufacturers? >> first of all, i wouldn't touch zb m or ford. ford is down 7%. gm down 3%. when you look at tesla, it's up 43% year-to-date. the short interest is 26, 27%. also, when you buy a tesla, can you get that software update. it's a computer now. right? we all know that. it's already there. i think that where there is a pent-up demand. that's going to happen eventually for gm and ford.
people are sitting on their hands, their computers. i need a new truck. i don't want to buy one. i want to wait until the new stuff comes out, people are waiting longer. >> are they valued? >> values, yes, i thought they were. they're more value now. than they were valuable. i'm a little frustrated gm holder. let me show you a chart i find the most distressing, which is a chart of the pe ratio of gm versus the ratio of the s&p. can you see the nice increase in the s&p and look at the bottom line that ge, gmpe ratio is terrible, which reflects the expectation that earnings have peaked. it's interesting, know, that this expectation has been around for a while. yet they continue to earn and earnened ea and earn. i don't do you get it to clang? maybe they earned a lull in the markets. we need so see them do nicely in
a down turn in sales. >> maybe they can see peak vehicles. >> they said that two years ago on this chart. so, i don't know, i'm still long. it's a frustrating position. incredibly cheap. it can stay that way. >> back to your call on the valuation, i'm in the name as well. i'm not in ford. i sold late last year. i think you have a company that's still delivering on their margins. i think what they're doing in carolina is very interesting with saic. even though we we heard, i think a lot of that sales tax, china sales will go 5%. i think it's a market everybody wants to be in. i don't see it changing. >> you know me a long time. you come to realize, i'm not that bright. that is clear. >> you are bright. >> anyway. >> it's self-evident. general motors will earn $6 a share give or take. guess how much they will earn next year? $6 a share. >> that es growth zero. the valuation it is cheap. it is cheap for a reason. it gets ugly really quickly. >> coming up, bill o'reilly officially out at fox of a
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welcome back to "fast money". this is a story that rocked the cable world. fox giving megastar host bill o'reilly the boot. in the process raising questions about the future and the role of the murdock children. julia boorstin joins us with the latest. >> reporter: fox said bill o'reilly is not returning tonight. we take over the atm slot. the ensemble moves into the 9:00 p.m. shot. murdock says an internal memo to employees quote fox news has demonstrated again and again the strength of it. we have full confidence the new yorker will continue to be a powerhouse and cable news. bill o'reilly issuing a statement saying, quote, it is tremendously disheartening moving because of unfounded claims. >> that is the reality many in the reality have to face today t. question now is whether the
new lineup can maintain o'reilly's leading ratings on fox. now the o'reilly factor was the highest rated cable news show for 15 years, bringing fox news $325 million in revenues over the past two years. >> that would make at this time top earner of any show on fox news, cnn or msnbc. now, there is also the question of what o'reilly and former chief roger ails will do next and whether o'reilly will bring his fan base with him. >> will roger ails get the band back together? i think it's an enormous opportunity. if i were roger ails, that's what i would be thinking. >> well, we'll be looking out for analyst's reactions to today's news. so far, those we spoke to, don't anticipate any impact. >> julia, does the firing signal a a changening of the guard. it was reported that rupert had been behind bill o'reilly.
it was the children who were for getting rid of him? >> the reaction over the guard officially changed quite a while ago. >> the ceo, lawson murdock as a chairman. we have seen over the past couple years, they have been making decisions on their own. what i've we heard is that rupert murdock has stayed involved primarily only in fox news. that was something he was very interested in personally. he was far more invested and involved in the day-to-day of fox news than he was in any other part of the rest of their media empire. now, i think it's worth noting that the three murdocks all agreed on the decision to very quickly oust roger ails last summer. so they have, we have seen that influence of the younger generation. you know, rupert murdock and roger ails were very close. i have we heard it was james murdock more than any of the other three who were sort of pushing more to have this next generation, of leadership and perhaps a different sense of some of the importance of
corporate culture being more of a priority for fox. >> julia, thank you. julia boors the tin in san francisco on this developing story. obviously, you think the other cable news channels out there are probably sal rate ising at the idea of getting some audience, although, it's a different audience, pick e they're taking advantage of this weak inside, even if it's for the advertising dollars. >> yeah, i tell you what, i think fox has an audience that's not going to leave. i think fox has an understand that u audience that will be happy to see a new face in there i don't think this is an opportunity for people to knock this company down. i think they will figure out how to strike. >> he did have a tremendous following. we talk about a different type of person amendment. this was a cult-like following. >> i think it's a following that followed him. >> it seems to me that somebody else is going to peck him up eventually. i think it will be tremendously positive for them. >> you may not have to be picked up in this die and age of podcasts and other things. distribution points. traders we heard the o'really
news courting with bets. >> it's four times the average daily call volume today. a big buy at the may 31 call is 75 cents, that's betting the stock will be up 4.5% in the next four weeks. >> that happens to correspondence the under performance of fox since the news came out at the beginning of the mopth. it looks like they're looking for the stock to play catch up. this is going to basically resolve the stock growth. >> mike, thank you, mike ko. more "options action," check out the show friday 5:30 eastern time. up next, one online retailer says it could be your second chance to buy amazon. the name? we come right back. but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades
back with final trade, tim seymour. >> anna darko, protect yourself 55ish, apc. >> wait a little, united. >> i feel like we're back to the future getting a second shot at amazon. you are getting it through alibaba. i with the it today. >> did you watch that last night? a huge performance in one word. >> unbelievable. >> you said one word. >> you are a study of the sport. >> i love it. i can't get enough of the
hockey. >> brilliant. >> you know what else is brilliant? gold. i think it's going up tomorrow. gdx. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks, so much for watching. see you tomorrow at 5:00. meantime, don't go anywhere. "mad money" with my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad mone money", welcome to cramerica. most people want to make friends, i just want to make you money. my job is not just to train you, but to educate and teach you. few things are harder to pull off than a corporate turn around.