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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  July 25, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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time does also reflect the markets. >> and meanwhile, retail, banks, industrials -- >> energy. >> commodities, energy, yeah >> everything but tech >> a mega rotation today we have earnings tonight let's get to wapner and the half all right. welcome to the halftime report our top trade this hour, running of the bull. another new record for the s&p 500 after earnings from caterpillar, mcdonald's, utx and more beat expectations, but even as stocks soar, some bracing for a serious correction the exclusive data coming up with us for the hour, ubs private wealth management and one of baron's and forbes' top 100 financial advisers just keep notching these >> the mantle is so full >> better get a bigger house
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let's begin with a new record for stocks a monster number mcdonald's there is your dow 21,635 a gain of better than 122. joe, which do you fine tyou fin impressive >> i find it all impressive. yields are rising, oil is rising you are seeing a significant short squeeze in oil not to be dismissed. so okay, you wake up this morning and you want to be one of those people selling out of google, rotating there is plenty of places to go. financials, bank of america morgan stanley above $48 >> banks are having a good day about that. >> and after last week, we were kind of a little bit uncomfortable about where banks were going to be going on the backs of earning but industrials is strong. a lot of optimism. >> so what stands out, cat highest since march 2012,
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mcdonald's, dupont all time high so many names. united technologies good earnings a good outlook >> in general, what we're supposed to be a fully invested here and riding this rally on the other hand, and i said this last week, you have to keep an eye for things that could go awry i'm not saying stocks are priced for perfection being but they ain't cheap either 3 m is one of the ones that missed and its stock is off 5% you mentioned the industrials. it's a bevy of industrials trading at these 18 to 22 times forward multiples which are a little bit rich and it just shows you if you trip up, you can expect to give some of this back >> and you're the value guy looking for these stocks to have a renaissance. but now it sound like you're raining on their parade. >> i'm certainly not saying sell the stocks short what i'm saying if you are in them, then ride them if you are not in them, this is kind of an expensive price to
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get in them. there are stocks that i'm looking at selling, things like a marathon petroleum or tiffany's that keep going up day after day. i'm waiting for two to three down days in a row and that is my sell signal all i'm saying stay disciplined. >> so you feel like these earnings today only confirm even further where the market is and why it's here? >> yeah. it says pillars of support are still in place which is an accelerating economy, it's corporate profit growth, a benign growth environment, so you have a fed that won't get in the way. you have a lot positives and he would say ti would say y to see a distinction between those that are goidoing well and those that aren't. so you need to perform in order for your stock to continue to advance. >> taking a look at mcdonald's, global comp 6.6. expectations were 3.5%
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>> they continue to defy gravity and expectations by the way that easterbrook is performing there. they are hitting on all cylinders. another 4% today >> we've seen a couple management stories today mcdonald's clearly is the best that we've seen because when you thought that there were no more levers to pull after all day breakfast, he pulls some other levers and what is an extremely competitive space, yeeasterbroo is ceo of the year for what's do done caterpillar is also a management story. the previous management missed every quarter i believe for three years. the business isn't phenomenal there, they are still well off their peaks unlike a dupont which is doing very well and other companies that are growing tremendously quickly relative to the economy. and that is the issue. there is a real dichotomy. >> cramer called caterpillar the most important beat in raise in the earnings season. back even --
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>> you have a management team that underpromised and overdelivered. they controlled costs versus a management team that always o r overpromised and underdelivered. so let's not -- >> this is without infrastructure or anything else. >> exactly my point. so you have a dichotomy going on where you've had mid economic reports but yet earnings that are astounding so if the economy ever kicks in, we can go much higher. if there is ever infrastructure spending >> the reform opportunity is enormous it could really propel -- >> and none of that is in the stock? >> no expectations of that in the market whatsoever. >> but here is the thing we're having opinions and these are good opinions about stocks this should lead to a good active stock picker environment. and i'll give you an example mcdonald's, i agree, the ceo has done a terrific job. the stock now trades -- a home run of a stock trades at 23 times forward
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earnings same as get this google. now, granted both estimates are get changed a bit. but if you're a stock picker, this is not your only choice, just making this up, good google or mcdonald's. they're at the same price. where do you think you will have the greater earnings growth? this is an opportunity for active stock pickers >> and the growth at google is certainly enough to take a second look and say wow, a company that big able to grow the way they are, so 2 pp$2.7 billion fine, a hit on earnings, stock at $968 as we're having this conversation. >> and it's $966 was where it was just a couple weeks ago on july 14th. so this is hardly a shellacking that it's taking i'm long google. i know kerry will come on and talk about it. obviously it's giving a little bit back on the traffic acquisition costs. i think that is just total noise and this is a stock that you can
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continue to own. >> we talked about this yesterday with the fact that you would need to see a significant miss and sharp sell-ooff that would precipitate a lot of index selling because all these names are so highly weighted right now to the index itself. you haven't seen that. but while you wait for that, you're getting other areas of the market that have underperformed, we haven't enreally talken real even really talked about material freeport and all these other names are ripping because copper is ripping in its own right. >> finally and here they are contributing to a rally where they have been completely absent for quite a while. >> and the flip side of this is the com play sense city question vix is at the lowest level since 1993.sense city question vix is at the lowest level since 1993 but one trader made a bet that it could double by october let's bring in pete najarian
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we've looked at this thing like wow, somebody bets $265 million on the vix surging by october and nearly tripling from the level that it is today >> yeah. it's an interesting thing. but we see this more and more and i think quite honestly when i'm looking at volatility trading particularly in the vix, i look at these trades far more as a hedge not necessarily people that are speculating for this move, but more of a hedge. they are helping pol hedging po. a guy comes in huge paper, but he tends to pay 50 cents for options. puts uncredit bld amouble amoun down in a hedge form that is what this feels like to me we're talking about a ten cent option that a huge buyer comes in and buy as massive amount and who can blame him. when you look at where volatility is right now trading
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around 9, 9me.14, when volatiliy is that low, of course you will you'll want to have something. i look at the trades in the vix far more as a hedge. if thishe spdrs and puts in the spdrs, that would be more meaningful because that is somebody taking that directional bid, that positioning, looking for that kind of a move. i look at this far more as a hedge. so do i expect this actually to ever come into money probably not but i do look at this as somebody who seems to be probably very smart because the hedge form when you look at this, is there is a possibility, october is always that volatile month, is there is a possibility that between now and then we might see some gyrations that push the vix up? of course. i think everybody on the desk would agree. we expect to see a big shock to the markets and it will probably dissipate rapidly, as well
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>> why wouldn't you back up the truck on the vix right now if there was a no-brainer trade, isn't that it? >> yes and no. i'm not sure the vix like pete's take on this, but i'm not sure the vix is what it was in terms of ability to really measure fear we've seen some massive moves under the market headlines >> but even a whiff of volatility -- >> i think you should always have some protection >> how can you not make money? >> cash has been the better protection because you would have been losing money day after day. >> you don't have the negative roll so you don't have the bleed as it relates to holding the vix which is tough and there is no silver bullet for measuring investor complacency. when i talk to clients, they are still with an eerie kind of feeling about the markets. even with the vix at all-time lows and prices at all-time highs, i think investors are
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still scared >> it's so true, investors are and temperature to brace for a correction of some kind of magnitude. we brought on steve liesman today because his exclusive fed survey tells that story as the markets hit these new highs every day, the vix is at its lowest in forever. and yet more people are expecting a drop in it >> people answering my survey think all the people at this table are not paying attention >> so what have you got? >> and haven't been for the last eight years. >> i guess that lif-- no, not necessarily. first thing we have, we asked people do you think the market is too optimistic about the trump agenda and about half of our 44 respondents think 50% say too optimistic there are the results. 36% say realistic. basically counting on too much fiscal stimulus coming from the trump administration and by the way, they have pushed back the expectations. and i want to share one other
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thing from mark zandi, an economist, this one quote that he has, as set markets are very highly priced and invest tors are com place event. >> i don't does his agree, but what do you do with that knowledge?place event. >> i don't does his agree, but what do you do with that knowledge? do you sell everything and trig are your tax bill? no do you take out protection maybe that is a good idea. if stocks go way past their price target, many you peel them back but i would say that i agree there is some complacency out there. but okay, i got it let's make money >> this just confirms what people have been saying, it's the wall of worry, the most hated rally since -- >> there is no wall of worry >> i'm just saying since whatever, people get more negative and then the market continues to go up and they
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chase, chase or they miss. >> so i've got cash. not as much cash as i had six months ago, but still a decent load of cash i'd love to see the market come in, but it won't >> the emotion has been tan oae out of the market. >> for now sorry to interrupt, but i don't think that we should think that this pendulum that has shifted to quantitative and passive investing is the way that the next two years will be just because of the last year they are two phenomenal trends that i don't think we extrapolate them lynner alley. >> so 50% of people that were surveyed think that the market or stocks are too optimistic about the trump agenda there is a legitimate question, is the trump agenda may not be in the market at all >> i agree with that >> so you think it's leecomplety
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priced out >> i keep saying arriving is to t risk is to the up side every institutional investor i speak with thinks that there is no expectation of trump getting anything done. >> so watch out if and when you do and people who have cash on the sidelines, almost all are predicting some calamity in washington, d.c. which if you haven't had it, when are you actual gi goily go have it? at some point these people come to their senses and put their money back in. the market shoots up on the election of donald trump clearly on an expectations of a pl ciol agenda that agenda goes away.
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the market doesn't come down and you say -- i'm really comfortable right now. i got five bulls and i'm the one that is bearish, so i'm comfortable. >> this may be the foundation of the rally built on the strength of the economy which is growing stronger and not so much anymore on the expectations of the agenda that is the cherry on top. >> and also because at the beginning of the year, he had this dramatic economic surprise come from europe and from the emerging markets where no one expected to be present you witnessed that in january and february and then you see the u.s. dollar fall 8%. >> and then you saw an unwind of the biggest trump beneficiaries which were commodities, which were industrials those sold off they have only recently covered. so trump has really nothing to do with it i would say that obama was negative to the market, trump is probably neutral to slightly
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negative >> the optimism probably has something to do with it. >> it's a lack of a gray cloud >> i just want to point out there is a lot of room on this side of the boat i can put my feet up and just relax because pete, you're not coming over to my side of the boat, are you? you're on the other side pete >> am i on the other side of boat, as well? >> yeah. >> you know what, steve, i tend to -- listening to all the guys, i'm probably more so on your side of the boat >> come on over. >> and i don't meepd it. it's interesting because the guys were talking about cash and having cash rather than having protection out there i'd rather have protection when you have premiums at the lowest end in decades and you have the opportunity to buy thesepremiums, it allows you t actually stick with a trade even if or when we start to see some of the pull backs that i think you're alluding to because i'll tell you what, it's just a
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matter of time for something to send shockwaves through and that will be the time when you'll want to have the ability to be able to buy. >> but how much finatime >> one at a time or we can't understand what anyone is say g saying >> you have to have that money available if you want to jump into the market. if you are all in, that ability is not there so i listen to steve talking about having some cash on the sidelines. i think that makes a lot of sense. but when you have the protection there as well, that offers you the opportunity when time comes and if and when we see some sort of a pull back like you're talking about, steve >> i would say that the cash is on the sidelines and there is some cash on the sidelines. but that cash has yet to come into the market. there is a healthy degree of skepticism i agree options can be a very effect tip tool in managing risk and right now they are exceedingly cheap to do so but you still have to get the timing right because if you try
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to hedge out three hontd months cost of that hedging is high in a low return world you have to be really right in a lower turn world otherwise you will eat into your net return. >> i want to get to another point which i think you have some reporting on and that regards the fed chair herself. how much risk -- give us your reporting and then we can talk about the risk of the person index. >> my understanding is a decision has not been made as to a replacement, but that almost certainly the trump administration will replace janet yellen i don't think that is a huge revelation >> in february >> i think her term ends technically in january and almost certainlyjanet yellen and i'm getting signals on this this notion that gary cohn is definitively going to be the next guy is overstated my understanding is the trump
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administration has not made a decision on gary cohn. in addition, they are still looking for names. they haven't decided exactly what kind of person they want and who that person will be. so it's still a matter of in flux and the issue i think is it's kind of getting late you have to vet a person, you have to go through the whole process. it may not be until the fall that we know what will happen, but there has been some reporting that said gary cohn is a donedeal but i'm pretty sure that is not the case >> what would all this mean to the way that you think about the markets? >> i love having gary cohn where he is right now. going to be fed chair -- >> donald trump may as well. there is something to be said for that >> right now, being fed chair is arguably most powerful monetary policy position in the world, right but i don't know i think he's brilliant he's a brilliant guy, he's level headed and a clear thinker >> what do you wants a president trump in the fed chair
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>> i'm almost asking that rhetorically rates are low. >> that's where i'm going. >> the market is high. >> market is doing fine. yellen has been executing this exit i think reasonably well. >> i agree >> when she was the dove and everybody said was too dovishly fed chair, she was the one to first raise rates in ten years or whatever it was she's the one who has begun this local discussion about reducing the balance sheet and the market has barley concernely concerned all with that. so do you want a person to come in with tighter monetary policy, different? what do you want >> are you saying she might get donald trump's approval to continue because he has a lot on his plate anyway the path of least resistance is just to keep her >> i thought it made sense when he brought up the idea that he was considering keeping her in that role. however, what i've been hearing otherwise is that they are
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casting about. it's a hard thing though for a president to pass up you have this opportunity to put your stamp on the central bank by putting your person in rather than just reappointing the old person you kind of get that i hear this thing that they want somebody who is strong and i'm not sure what that means >> i think pragmatic they want somebody that is evolutionary in terms of pragmatism but not revolutionary to change the complete trajectory that is really what would be scary. >> i expect for the market it's a win/win scenario if she says, the markets are fine if she's replaced, i'm homore ta comfortable that the right person will be put this place. >> didn't cramer say he meant gary cokoecohn could mean 5% on s&p? >> i'm not sure why though
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>> quality understanding of the markets certainly. >> but what is it that yellen is doing that is somehow upset the markets? >> i didn't say that there was anything >> but where is the ability to improve on the way that the fed -- the real criticism of the fed is that they are too sensitive to the market. and i think that is the thing that the fed has -- i do want to add this quick point having done this for a couple decades, one thing you will wants a a president in the fed xlar chair is somebody who generally supports your policies i'm not sure he has that with janet yellen so an upside to say somebody that says these things the president is proposing are good ideas. >> your reporting is saying to us that in february janet yellen is most likely not the fed chair. >> most likely >> all right thanks coming up -- google takes a pause the stock trading lower after investors didn't love the company's earnings report.
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but one-half time regular says the stock is getting close to a 11 where you will want to buy. and another trader in the halftime desk just jumped into a new sector thinking it's about to break out before the break, what happens after mcdonald's beats earnings estimates? it's happened 26 times since 2000 according to our data partners a month later, the stock is up on average an additional 3.2%. for more kensho, go to for your heart... your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. prevagen. the name to remember.
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pete, i'll go to you first on our call of the day you follow this company. what is the deal with this call? >> this goes back to when you sat down with kevin plank and we talked about that there was a deceleration and anytime you ha you are starting to see diesecelerationf growth, that becomes an issue. they are willing to buy when the growth continues that is number one number two, we all know the money that they will have to spend in shoes and other areas to remain competitive. when you are chasing after the big dogs, adidas and nike and
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all the rest, it will take a lot of money and that innovation, the money that they will have to spend, that will be significant. and that's why i don't necessarily think that this is the right call to be on a sell, but at the same time, i don't know what the up side is right now for under armour i think if you are willing to hold it for three years, then i think you've got a great runway for you. but if you are looking for something in the next six months, a couple quarters, i don't think -- >> morgan stanley put out these encyclopedia sized notes and he thinks the stockstill has room to go to the down side. >> well, on what planet should a company that has as much leverage in retail in such a competitive space that has had the recent earnings history should be selling at 40 times earnings it's crazy you have nike selling at half the multiple with a much broader reach of much stronger overall
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business so i don't know why the stock wouldn't be cut if han half fro here >> why not wait until earnings clearly it is in position with a strong earnings report that you could see a significant bounce in the stock whether that is a bounce that is long lasting -- >> do you think that is likely anything is possible >> that is a coin flip knowing what is coming out august 1st from that earnings report is a coin flip. what i'm telling you is that there is a risk on the up side that you can see a significant pop in that stock. >> let's talk about biotech. steve-wi wisis looking for oppoy there. >> probably should have waited a day, but i started buying it and here's why the various biotech indexes have all done well. i want to be involved. i just haven't had the time. and it takes a lot of time to focus on a few names
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you never want to own just one. this has 97 stocks in the indices, 27% are the top ten i believe you need concentration to generate return, but it's a place holder right now i still think that the group has a lot of legs. it's been under siege except for this year. >> it's up 36.5% year to date, xbi. >> yeah, but i still think it has a long way to go >> and what about health care? >> i think you will start to see a rotation away from the growth sectors and more into the value sectors that lag jim and i were just talking about this, there are pockets of value within other sectors in the market and the market can advance by rotating to those sectors. so we've dialed it back here recently to a neutral position and think that the way you want to own the market going forward is owning energy and financials on the notion that -- >> so you are looking to
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devalue. >> yeah, oil prices will go up rates will likely head up over time and this finally you have the hedge to that and i say it's a hedge because technology which is disrupting all these other industries, if you own it, you are essentially taking the other side of the value trade. >> well, i'm thinking about what you're doing and the xbi, you know it's high beta and thus high risk, but frankly probably going to work out for you. from a value perspective, i'm looking more at -- >> volatility with risk whatsoever >> but just on a valuation basis. we're not going to have this argument you'll have to agree biotech is priced more expensively than form su pharmaceuticals. it's just factual. here we go, the facts don't matter >> let me continue here. if you're looking for value in sorry sectors -- >> there is a reason why you sit you guys there >> you want to see them arm wrestle. >> anyway, pharmaceuticals,
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different way to make hone and one sector that we should look at is the insurers. we obviously don't know what will go on with the repeal/replacement of the affordable care act. but it seems less and less likely that obamacare is just going to be wholesale thrown out. what is more and more likely is that there will be some support for the exchanges which is going to make the insurers more able to make money. so that is an area that i'm starting to look at as a value play >> and the new fda commissioner will be much morrow active on a couple fronts which is, one, he's going to take the generic companies, or are coming on, that is not good for big phrma and he's also going to be more proactive in the approval process with biotech that will be good for the growth have is. >> but that risk has been there for a long time. one thing that i think you and i will agree on, the idea of price controls have fallen by the wayside. we talked about this last fall a
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lot. we're not talking about it, it won't happen either this biotech or phrma >> domino's or mcdonald's? >> must really taste graleat. >> you're unbelievable now sue herera >> here is what is happening president trump launching more twitter attacks this morning against attorney general jeff sessions criticizing him for not investigating hillary clinton's e-mails. but some republican senators are coming to sessions' defense. >> i've known senator sessions for 25 years he's a very excellent senator. there couldn't be anybody put in place by this president of the united states as one of his cabinet members that is more qualified. >> former trump campaign manager paul manafort met with senate intelligence committee staff this morning this comes as another senate panel is yousued a subpoena to e him to appear at a hearing.
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and a new study of deceased football players show as high prevalence of cte, that is the degenre it i have brain disease caused by multiple blows to the head researcher found 91% of former college player and 99% of nfl athletes had evidence of cte that is the news update this hour >> sue, thank you very much. coming up on "power lunch," we're on health care vote watch. it will be a dramatic moment for john hmccain back to d.c and we're also going inside the numbers of this record breaking rally that you have been debating our question, should investors brace for a couple of historically scary months ahead. that would be september and october. and then from cookies to coating, the ceo of the girl scouts will be with us she'll tell us about the new badges one can earn for
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robotics, engineering and cybersecurity. and we'll enev save you this thin mints what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley hey. pass please. i'm here to fix the elevator. nothing's wrong with the elevator. right. but you want to fix it. right.
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so who sent you? new guy. what new guy? watson. my analysis of sensor and maintenance data indicates elevator 3 will malfunction in 2 days. there you go. you still need a pass.
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pete is seeing bearish activity in the options market so often we look at the call buying and up side of what people think will happen, but
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not today. >> right and today what i'm looking at actually is an extension of what started off yesterday. yesterday some monstrous activity and a lot of time when i've seen put activity in the past, i've said the stock moved or in-dex moved and it looks lik protection this did not look like protection yesterday it was the november 69 puts, that was with the smh trading at 87. they bought 34,000 of those puts to the down side that is a significant bet looking for some sort of a pull ba back today we have followup the august 84 puts for a dollar, about 7,000 of those were purchased. and looking for a little bit of a pull back now as smh trades closer to 86 so it will be interesting to see. we've seen some of the pull back already. chips moving to the down side. i'm still long micron. i like it. i like the call activity that we've had. but certainly that is paying the
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rice tod price today. but somebody looking for a pullback for sure in the next couple week and if you look at the november puts, somebody is looking for a big correction at some point in tile >> so sometimes options activity in the volume may cause you to change or at least near term basis change your view on where a sector can go? sounds to me like you think these are one off bets on individual stocks within that space and that you'll still go with the sector? >> yeah, i think the sector itself has shown us that it's been very strong but it's been on an absolute rip roaring run to the upside. i like these names they will have to produce during earnings season, though, or we may see those pull backes because of the extensive run to the up side. just a few misses that could pull the entire index down significantly i would think.
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>> do you have an update for us, as well? >> yeah, yesterday we talked about scientific gaming. we talked about the huge call, the january 22 calls that were purchased, they went up to the january 35s. the calls they bought just yesterday, they were paying about $4.40 for those calls. those are trading well over $6 today. up over $2 in a single day something is going on here and it's very, very positive in scientific gaming. we even saw more call rolling up today. january 25s up to the 35s. people are expecting that this actually has a little bit more room, likes to the upside. i would say you want to have some discipline if you are in this trade from yesterday and actually even though it's all the way to january, trimming maybe isn't the worst thing in the world.cipline takes -- you have to have that in front of you and know when you want to start to k3exit or at least tri. all right, up next the blitz. the trades on michael kors,
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barnes & noble and more.
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it's time for the blitz. michael kors set to buy jimmy
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choo does this do anything for kors >> well, stock has recovered and the ceo came out and said this is just the start. we'll be luxury goods brand. you will see more of this. it's either grow, find other avenues to grow, or die. and michael kors, so line them up >> let's talk retail in sxwrgen. up the most in eight months. second best read on consumer confidence since trump was elected. >> and that is absolutely great news but in the sector as we were talking, there will be haves and have nots. and i think you have to protect yourself from those companies that will continue to be completely disintermediated by technological evolution. >> have we overdone it though? look at the snap back on some of the stocks sears is a bounce. urban is a bounce. >> and to my point before, that
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is why when you get earnings with underarrest hour ne armouru could see the same thing this is certainly a sector to your point where you could see these kind of bounces. we'll see if they -- >> is this a number that does anything to help you pick a would the in t bottom in the space? >> it's not just one data point. there is a lot that has been going on every time you make fun of me, the stock goes up, so bring it you can't miss the fact that over the last couple years there has been a huge reduction in the number of outlets that are out there for people to shop at. whether it's store closing or bankruptcies, you're finally seeing the rationalization in the brick and mortar space to a much smaller size. >> if you cannot pick a bottom -- >> i already picked a bottom
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>> if the consumer confidence number doesn't help you pick a bottom in some of these stocks, when can you pick a bottom >> the bottom was two months ago when everybody was going nuts about the first quarter earnings from all the retailers that was the bottom. and it's not about me, but remember how much fun we had sort of giving me the business about it that was probably a tell that we're nearer to the bottom than not. >> it's pretty tough to pick a bottom when uneconomic competitors won't go away. >> but they are going away >> those that -- they don't care about making money in an environment where you have to match -- >> no bottom until jimmy buys a new tie. >> when's wrong with this tie? >> it's a great tie. >> that's what you say when you don't have anything to city ssa substantive. >> can we kill the music
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>> it's not a capacity strained industry when you do away with stores and everybody else rushes and makes more profitable. >> you are incorrect >> i'm not incorrect not everybody in the world is going to buy all of their goods online that is fallacy. you can rationalize and have been rationalizing the size of the brick and mortar industry and that's where you are right now. >> that's not the case don't let facts get in the way >> all right let's talk tech now. specifically google. that stock is under pressure a bit today following its earnings let's welcome karen firestone from asset management. how are you, karen >> i'm good. how are you? >> so help me understand this. you already own google, is that right? >> we do we have a big position in google >> were you looking to buy more off of a dip in this stock >> we thought if the stock went down more than 4%, we would step in and buy
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it's interesting that it was a slightly disappointing quarter, but it's done down 3% today. it was a decent quarter. when you grow earnings 27%, the stock is up 22% this year, but by the way that is the lowest performi performing in terms of appreciation next closest is apple and that is up over 32% so google is reasonably priced at 23 times next year's earni earnings and we did make a strong case for it here, but it didn't have the craft that would to us signify a buy signal >> but you're telling me 4% would have been a buy, but 3% is not? what is 1% between friends >> correct >> i'm being serious, though >> i think it's a buy if you don't have a big enough position i mean, we have a big position in order for us to justify adding -- we said in a price
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target if it hits target, buy or sale goes off. and i think the guys at the desk appreciate that. but at this level, we're still very comfortable with where it is right now >> did it make you at all think twice about where these other fang stocks could go given facebook and amazon reporting? >> sure. of course it does. i mean, this is a market that has loved these stocks for the year and it's conceivable that they can take a hit and i don't want to put numbers on them because i don't want that dream to be fulfilled in any way or nightmare but you have to hope that the market loves its growth. we're not seeing growth in very many places. it's coming from technology. we didn't own netflix, but we own all of the others. facebook is not expensive particularly google isn't netflix is and amazon is of course but what the market has loved about amazon is the revenue growth which we expect to continue >> all right
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karen, thank you we'll see soon >> and i love that tie, steve. >> thank you i'm getting so much crap about this tie except for the people that i admire from a fashion standpoint it's a good contrast >> who is your guy >> with scott and the funeral look day after day >> an equal opportunity insulter >> i don't think anybody would agree with that characterization at all and you are certainly not the one who should be commenting on fashion. >> i'm a trendsetter >> pete, thanks. >> we'll see joe wearing this tie. metal trading at levels not seen in more than two users, which is why wre gnge'oi to the futures pits next. insurance coms won't pay for damages. that is, not if they can help prevent damages from happening in the first place. at cognizant, we're turning the industry known for processing claims into one focused on prevention
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in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. the name to remember. ♪ welcome back to the half-time report we are watching copper today surging to its highest level in over two years this as the imf bumps up growth projections for china, one of the largest copper consumers what else is driving the copper move today >> well, jackie, when you look at the charts back in march we
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traded up in copper. traded back down to 250. over the last week it went back to 2.74. that was the catalyst that broke through that level now technically we've broken out above that trading in the 2.80s now. plus the supply situation has changed. we'll discuss that further at 1:00 >> brian, you're looking at it from the technical perspective are you seeing more upside for copper from here >> i do. when you look at copper and griz mentioned this, we could be looking at $3 here look at copper versus gold copper may be outperforming at times and you get good global growth we talk about china or maybe india coming here. we talk about the numbers from k caterpillar. people wan out of the paper currency trade they're getting into gold. i think kopper is next to go here. >> today on futures we are keeping the copper conversation going on this record-setting
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day. we're talking to paul ciana from bank of america merrill lynch as well he'll tell us why he thinks the dollar decline is done that's at the top of the hour. >> thanks so much. what do we think freepo freeport materials? minors now the time >> well, for a balance for a trade. for a quick trade. for more of a longer term investment i think it's more of a prove it story that's got to come over multiple >> they keep building more capacity in that you don't want to be in commodity when on stream >> up next, chipotle, boeing, caol fd,co-ca,or mazon plus final trades when we come back hey gary, what'd you got here?
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811 is available to any business our or homeownerfe. to make sure that you identify where your utilities are if you are gonna do any kind of excavation no matter how small or large before you dig, call 811. keep yourself safe. okay we're back there's your earnings for the rest of this week. coming into the week, there were about 180 s&p 500 companies set to report. yes, we got through google but you got big names still to come tomorrow, facebook, ford, coca-cola, boeing. what do you guys think which ones are you going to zero in on? >> for me facebook the expectations are very high i think that's justified i wouldn't be surprised to see
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facebook beat and continue the upside momentum. >> how about boeing? >> yeah, that's the one on my mind, scott. we were talking earlier about these industrials that have been priced to a high multiple. >> this thing's ripped >> it is they might deliver that. but there's a lot of things that could trip it up the tanker, 787 deferred charges. so that's one i'm watching if there's any price break there, i want to get back into it but it needs to be 10% lower >> i went back into chipotle puts i have those hurting a little bit today it'll be interesting what they have to say. i still think the stock is significantly overvalued facebook i'm a joe i own that and own calls in it hopefully google is not a complete read through to what facebook will be i don't think it will be because google's got a bigger business there and facebook i think has done a better job in mobile. so i'm not really worried about that >> wasn't a bad number anyway. >> no, it wasn't a bad number. the acquisition costs, you don't know how they get, you know,
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zoomed in on facebook. >> what about general dynamics in northrup? >> those guys have ripped as well i wonder at this point, can you get more ship orders i feel the shipyards are building as fast as they can are you going to get more plane orders it's hard to see better news coming here. it's just hard to buy them here. >> rob said earlier that he likes energy here as a value play exxon and chevron are on the docket this week too >> i don't know if that's your energy play. again, i think what's going on here -- >> if rob's right, don't those stocks work? not saying he's going to be right, who knows >> both of those stocks you have to understand what is going to be the earnings report i think what's going on right here, the dynamic is whether it's energy retail materials you're seeing a bounce in names that have underperformed i think that's the trade >> all right let's do some final trades. >> to that point, contra is a
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name i'm adding to >> accami. i think this will be a good bounceback quarter >> citi group. i think it goes higher from here >> yeah. banks having a good day. who you got? >> xle there's going to be some fundamental follow through >> thanks for being here >> you're welcome. "power lunch" starts right now. wall street is not letting the drama stop can your money, though, keep pushing higher through the dog days of summer we'll debate more good news home prices also hitting new highs nationwide but as the fed meets today and tomorrow, will high interest rates put the brakes on the rally? and the girl scouts of america setting out to give out new badges for everything from robotics to cyber security "power lunch" begins right now


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