tv Street Signs CNBC February 9, 2018 4:00am-5:00am EST
i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm sri jegarajah let's give you some headlines. germany's dax pulls higher after briefly falling into correction territory as financial and utility stocks led to declines but have since reversed. europe's moves follow a rough day on wall street with the dow slipping into correction territory and wiping out some
$5.2 trillion in worldwide markets. amundi some analysts worry is too conservative. >> we are in this period where we don't know who will be the faster or the question of overvaluation. the u.s. government shuts down briefly but the senate passes the budget deal after a midnight deadline raising hope that a full agreement will be in place before most americans wake up good morning it's friday, tgif. we had another weak session in the u.s. yesterday dow jones was down about 4%. the hand over from asia was not that pretty either we saw the nikkei down 2.3% down
overnight. we saw weak performance in chinese stocks, down about 4%. some of that is due to liquidity being squeezed into the lunar new year the picture for europe, we started off quite weak, but since then european stocks have been trying to make a comeback clawing back towards the zero line stoxx 600 is down about 0.2% let's look at individual bourses. yesterday we had big moves in the dax. it was down 2.5% in yesterday's trading. it's actually up almost at the flat line, and it is relatively outperforming. we had huge swings in the ftse mib today. at one point it was down 0.5%. now up 0.4%. we actually have had relatively good earnings coming out of italian banks. that's been helping. yesterday the main focus of
attention was on ftse 100. that's down 0.4% today as the market digests the news of a more hawkish bank of england the market was not anticipating the bank of england to switch to hawkish, but that has had an impact on the ftse 100 as the uk grapples with political uncertainty and a central bank that looks like it wants to tighten more aggressively. this is interesting. autos and technology are leading the charge this morning, which gives you the impression that cyclicals are making a comebac when it comes to europe. we'll see what happens in the u.s. in the u.s., technology has been a big laggard. do the down side, financial services and banks utilities leading declines this morning. oil and gas pulling down the sector as the spot price comes
under pressure let's talk more detail about what's been happening in the u.s. you can see that the session yesterday in the dow jones was quite weak it was down about 4% yesterday's move was the second worst point drop in history. the whole day yesterday the dow jones traveled about 3,400 points up and down that's less than monday and tuesday, but still quite substantial. in the last five days alone the dow has lost half of its 2017 gains. that's spectacular switching to the s&p, it's not looking much prettier there either down about 3.75% yesterday the s&p hit a record high back on the 26th of january from that point it's lost 2$2.6 trillion in market cap technically speaking 8 out of the 11 s&p sectors are in correction
correction by definition is when the sector is down more than 10%. 8 of them are technically in that correction. we'll have to see how things look this morning. the vix with this much volatility and intraday move continues to be the top ij of major focus. you can see it is highlighting the move from low 15 where we opened monday. monday was a huge day for markets. we've been hovering around the 35 mark for the week now there doesn't seem to be a respite in site for the vix given how volatile these markets are and the extent of the selloff. people were hoping things would subside, but yesterday again gave a few warning signals in the u.s. market. we need to talk about fixed income the two-year u.s. yield is around the 2.13 mark a lot of focus on the ten-year at 2.86. on one hand you have technical factors weighing, fundamental
factors weighing that's pushing yields higher, but on the other hand you're having down moves on equities bringing on a flight to quality back to the ten-year note at one point the ten-year did touch 2.90 as equities took a downfall, money came back into fixed income again that pull and tug is happening in the fixed income space. there's a lot of supply coming to the market so there's not really a natural buyer, that suggests that 3% could be a target all right. let's move on. investor pes sicsimism is at a three-month high the turn away from bullish sentiment ends an eight-week streak of optimism the survey does still show slightly more bulls than bears data from lipper shows 38
billion was pulled out of stock funds in the last week the question on everybody's minds, where do we go from here? lars calbrier joins us now this doesn't seem like a typical correction to me it's been aggravated by the sheer volume of strategies on the market do we buy beaten up stocks on this dip or do we play defensive? >> well, we need to remember what has caused the correction the correction was caused by an inflation shock. we had last friday stronger labor figures which then triggered investors to reinvest. usually corrections happen for other reasons, because you hahae a growth drop or people think growth will come down.
the second point which is critical is we just had not had a correction and a correction is normal usually you get corrections once or twice a year. we had not had one for two years. so we're getting back to something which is normal. from that perspective i'd rather be in the camp of your first question >> where does that adjustment process take us then quickly >> a correction is healthy you cannot have double digit returns within a month in january we had 10% returns. that's usually a return which you're having over 1 1/2 years so we expect that this correction will probably continue with heightened volatility, perhaps another 3%, 4%, but it is a buying opportunity as long as earnings are growing. earnings are growing if you speak to companies, they are having a good year, both on the top line and on the bottom
line they're growing revenues and earnings >> the fundamentals are still strong when you look at the composition of the players in the market, aren't a lot of the players in the form of algos, quant players, players driven by signals. as long as we keep breaking to those lower levels, are those accounts and investors not going to be inclined to keep selling >> you're right. what algorithmic trading is doing is accelerating moves in the markets. in the hedge fund space one-third is dominated by quantitative strategies. so that means once you get volatilities in the system, sharp moves, these moves are accelerated. they're accelerated by the volume in etfs that's the new normal. we need to get used to that. panic is not the right strategy. >> not the right strategy for
sure, then again there's -- it appears there's more wood to chop in that space just taking a step back, how much of this is on back of central bank policies and the fact that central banks all over the world, not the fed specifically, have injected so much liquidity in the system, have done quantitative easing, have led to this financial repression of interest rates isn't it now, many years later, that it's coming back to bite again? >> you're right what we're seeing now is an outcome of all the unconventional monetary policy which we have seen over the past few years what's happening now is kind of we're going back to the new old normal the new old normal means lower returns, higher volatility, and also better environment for stock pickers. central banks have been very adverse for stock picking. we've seen that in the active management space >> if the central banks distorted the market and got us
here in the first place, then does the solution lie with them? and i'm curious, how do you think jay powell will address this entire question of global market volatility? the fed, we know, watched the international markets carefully. yes, we need to see if there's trickle down into the real economy. at this point is it premature to talk about a powell put? >> i think at this point it's premature. we are now braack in terms of global markets where we were in middle december. it is not something which has fed through the system and affected the real economy. where powell would be concerned is if he sees the correction is now starting to affect the real economy. then we could speak about a powell put >> lars, stay with us. coming up, we get correction
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welcome to "street signs." l'oreal shares are on the rise after a better than expected 5.5% rise in like for like sales in the fourth quarter. asia helped offset the demand for mass market products in the u.s. the ceo said he was confident of significant growth and increased profitability. in an interview with "the financial times" he said he was ready to give up stake in the company if it wanted to sell sticking with some corporate news, maersk shares stop to the bottom of the market after lower
than expected q4 earnings. amundi shares are taking a beating this morning falling to the bottom of the stoxx 600, this despite the french asset manager beating expectations and reporting a 37% increase in net income for the fourth quarter. it says it is aiming on bringing in 150 billion euros of new money through 2020, though some analyst commentary express concerns that future targets are too conservative we spoke with amundi's ceo about how clients are dealing with the recent market swings >> we've always provided clients with savings solution, and the need to invest money we provide all kinds of savings solution from real estate, equity, maybe they will move
from equity to other less risky assets, but it doesn't change a lot. >> i must admit, watching the movement in the treasury yield yesterday, you got the sense that money coming out of equity was going into fixed income, because we saw an immediate reaction in yields your sense is that investors will rotate and remain engaged rather than going to cash? >> yes two months ago, people asked me are we due for correction, i said the first thing we see is an increase in volatile i volatility, the second thing is the economy growth which is good and the question of debt, which is always a major problem, and which creates overvaluation. so we are in this kind of period we don't know who will be
faster, economic growth or the question of overvaluation linked to an excessive debt >> let's turn the conversation to asia. in contrast with worries in the west, chinese inflation eased in january as expected. ppi rose 4.3% year-on-year cpi rose 1.5%, the lowest level since july 2017. the data supports the picture that china's economy is losing momentum after a stronger than expected 2017 but should also be treated with caution due to distortions caused by the timing of the lunar new year sell breaks next week pboc announced it has released nearly 2 trillion yuan in liquidity to meet cash deman ahead of those holidays. asian stock markets have followed wall street deeply into the red with china's csi notching the worst week since august of 2015 nancy hungerford is in singapore
with the conclusion of all the market action. on a relative basis it's striking, asia is getting really badly burned by this global stock market selloff china with a strong domestic dynamic i thought would be relatively insulated, but a different story today. >> despite the strong fundamentals, there's a degree of fear out there, nervousness and going into the lunar new year holiday you talked about it seems investors are not willing to buy in on the dip for fear things could change before the holiday period let's look here at the hang seng you already talked about the weekly performance on the csi, look at the hang seng here, off 3% on the session. weakness across the board for the session. i want to show you the hang seng on a weekly basis, it was off about 10% here you can see this big move to the downside that's significant this will be the worst week since the financial crisis it also brings the index into
correction territory and most significantly that means the hang seng is negative for the year before today's close, it was an outlier hanging in positive territory. we've seen broad selling today let's look at the shanghai it was off about 10% for its worst weekly fall since january 2016 it's also the first so-called correction in 743 days it does give you a reminder of how good things have been with this long winning streak and the performance of many of these chinese equity markets throughout the last year let's give a view of the weekly performers the weekly 225 bearing the brunt of the selloff in asia it was off 2.3%, off session lows, but for the week off almost 9%. the nikkei 225 also in correction territory the south korean main market only down 1.8%
it did not fair as badly as other bourses here but the 6% dip on the week was the worst for the kospi since may 2012 >> no one is taking chances hanging into the weekend thank you very much for that you is breaking news in. >> we're speaking about the l'oreal ceo, he is out with comments saying if nestle wants to sell its stake in l'oreal, we're ready to buy it. he says we have cash in sanofi in terms of the resources to buy nestle's stake in l'oreal. they have enough to do it. it's nestle's choice and decision on whether they want to sell their 23% stake in l'oreal, but they do have the cash to buy it back. we will be having an interview with him at 12:30 cet. don't miss that. the s&p tech sector saw its worst daily performance since the brexit vote on thursday. big tech names have led the
declines on the index this week. the biggest losers are heavily dominated by the tech sector it looks as though a lot of that move happened yesterday. arjun kharpal joins us on the set this morning we had some really big moves looking at alphabet, apple how much of this is the fact that that market was overcrowded? >> let's take a high-level view and put this into context. let's year a lot of the f.a.n.g. stocks were up nearly 50% over the course of the year even with the pullback they were higher than a year ago there's a sense of quocooling o, profit taking. there's no down that the tech sector does remain strong still. if you look at a lot of the companies, they have huge scale. facebook at 2 billion users, 1.3 billion iphones in the market. many of the companies are starting to monetize users in new ways
that's a theme you'll see happen throughout this year there are some challenges, of course that comes from individual names, whether that's facebook and its news feed changes or rising regulatory concerns so plenty of challenges as well this year. >> looking at the tech hot board, we can put that up in a second if you look at the moves, apple outperformed relative to its competitors, even though there's been so many stories about apple and the fact that their iphone x is not selling as much as they wanted it to why is apple outperforming >> year to date apple is down 8% it's much higher over a yearly basis. people have started to buy into the services story of apple. yes, the iphone x sales were not as stellar as expected but in the last quarter you saw theaverage selling price jumpe significantly, which was key because it shows they're selling higher priced models, and service revenue grew about 20% per quarter. that's key
it is showing people are buying the apple services with an install base of 1.3 afteral iphones. people can say use apple pay, buy apple music. that's why you've seen excitement around the apple story. >> lars, a quick line on how you would approach the tech sector, which has been such an emblem for the momentum in the stock market >> we continue to be overweight the tech sector for reasons you mentioned. strong growth, changing consumer habits having said that, in terms of evaluations, it's a rich sector. it's something we need to have a structured view. we have a structured view and we keep overweight on it. we use the current weakness in order to buy more tech >> what sectors do you buy in this environment then? it looks like it will be heightened volatility environment and higher inflation environment. >> in terms of inflation, we do
not think that inflation is going to get out of control. there are too many structural sectors, factors who cannot explain why inflation is likely to be contained. having said that, cyclical stocks have been beaten down a lot during that correction they will benefit from continued economic growth, which we see being very balanced across different regions, emerging markets for instance, europe, and also the u.s therefore cyclicals is really the sector to increase >> looking at the basket of f.a.n.g. stocks, any names you favor over others here >> i think some of the strong performers are amazon for sure that's a company where a lot of people are looking to say cloud is growing significantly, they have a record net profit last year, they're increasing user base prime subscribers alibaba is another one where you are seeing cloud revenue drop
over 100% in the last quarter. and the e-commerce business is growing as they look to move beyond china into other markets. those are two interesting companies. the risks regulatory to the entire sector especially around companies like facebook and google, but also can they monetize some of these businesses those are some of the risks that investors would need to watch out for. >> so much for the f.a.n.g.s, what about the b.a.t.s., badu, tencent, and of course alibaba, how do you approach them the sense i get out in singapore is that they are leaps ahead of their counterparts in north north america. >> if you look at some of the innovations coming from tencent and baidu, they are invested
heavily in technology. they have a key foot hold in china. this is a market that many u.s. companies can't touch now. the world's biggest smartphone market and mobile is key to tencent, alibaba and baidu that is starting to pop into other territories. >> arjun kharpal, thank you very much for that. live pictures of the vote under way in the house of representatives. the u.s. senate has approved the budget deal, but it's too late to avert the slotdow doshutdown as we go to break, here's a look at the u.s. open and how it is shaping up this morning following yesterday's selloff. the dow is looking to open up about 220 points higher after wild moves in yesterday's session.
these are your headlines >> equities thrash about in choppy waters. financial and utility stocks lead the decliners europe's moves following a choppy day on wall street. the dow slipping into correction territory and wiping out some $5.2 trillion in worldwide markets. amundi is among the worst performers in the stoxx 600 even as results beat consensus. many analysts worry the forecasts are too conservative >> we are in this period where we don't know who will be the faster, economic growth or the question of overvaluation linked to excessive debt. >> the u.s. government shuts down after congress misses the midnight deadline, but it could be short asthe house votes on two-year budget deal for federal funding following the senate passage of the spending plan
welcome back let's look at these markets. the s&p 500 is in correction territory, it's had its 10% correction, but the stoxx 600 is taking all of this volatility in stride it's off by just 0.4%. the question now for these global markets is where do we head to next is this really the buy the dip moment or is it going to get worse? do we hunker down? do we get into cash? do we go defensive asia badly burned. china was on track for its worst day in two years let's take a closer look at some of these european markets. they seem to be relatively resilient. maybe that is because the economic back drop, the pmis
have been outperforming u.s. counter parts. the ftse mib is steady, relatively speaking. the quantum of losses at this point -- i stress at this point in the trading day, and we're still about midway through the morning session, is relatively limited. well below 0.5%. bear that in mind. it could worsen as could the picture in the u.s. markets and futures. looking at the sectors technology, which has been the laggard during this global selloff, is actually doing reasonably well. the banks on the losing end of the spectrum strangely enough, defensive sectors like utilities are off by 1% as we round off the week let's look at the dow over the course of the one week it bore the brunt of the selling. down by more than 4% the 23,000 handle is the next big number here on the downside. let's flip the board and show you the s&p 500. as i said, in correction
territory now. it's off by 10%. the s&p 500 over the course of the week down by almost 4% and this figure of 25,000 looks as though it's quite vulnerable. bank of america, merrill lynch saying 2540 will be an opportunity. they are talking about 3% on the ten-year let's look at the vix. this is really emblematic of the volatility returning to the markets over the course of the week off by 4.5%. joumanna, you an i have been talking about the etns, these volatility products getting hammered sharply now we have been speaking to some of europe's top final chnc chiefs to get their take on the current volatility >> we've had extremely steady, quiet markets, we lost a bit of
memory of what markets normally are. markets do have volatility markets go up and down this is normal we've been expecting this to happen we're fine with it we still see the markets as trending up. there's no reason why the economy will not deliver this year as expected the gdp growth which eventually is the only important thing for the assets then to perform over time. >> it's a market correction which was anticipated. it does notchange the positive outlook for this year, next year in terms of market activity. we are still positive for the market environment >> we are in this kind of period where we don't know who will be the faster, economic growth or the question of overvaluation linked to excessive debt
in this kind of stabilization, the situation of market in europe is in question. >> i would like to welcome our guest in thank you for coming in and sporting your colorful blazer. looking at the fund flow reports from yesterday, i thought it was interesting in that no surprise here, equity flows totaled $38 billion this week, inflows were 34 billion, which is contrary to what you think would happen in fixed income >> suddenly there's competition for yield. it's only been for the last six or seven years when we this that free cash out there, even when economic numbers have been bad, the stock market had to rise
now that ten-year is competing with the dividends, now there's more money moving out of equities back into the bond market if we continue to have good economic news, you will continue to see the number rise that's going to give more weight towards folks kind of maybe leaving that equity market it's okay to have good numbers, good economic indicators and have the market go down. we had bad ones and the market went up. this is normal >> if you looked at fixed income positioning, we talked about the positioning in equity space and that it was long but also you get short positioning in fixed income as well do you expect people to take chips off the table? if so, where >> yesterday we were speaking to bigger hedge funds out there, they were expecting a flight to quality after this selloff in the dow, but look at gold.
so even though you can say bonds are oversold, there still is no natural buyer, there's a lot of supply, that will be a problem going forward. >> i want to ask about the shape of the curve there was a lot of focus towards the end of last year about the flattening going on recently two-year settled a bit ten-year has been the main pivot in the yield curve do i get the feeling that your clients want to start positioning in steepeners now? >> they have done a bit that way. there has also been more talk about the key figure being the two-year rather than the ten-year we have seen that as technology does, that pushes us in the short-term rather than the long-term pictures >> jerome powell, will he ride into the rescue for these markets? there are two important dates this month february 14th, january cpi, if it's benign there's nothing to scare the horses here. then humphrey hawkins on the 2th what kind of tone will he
message to the markets >> on that last non-farm number, the market got spooked and then finally started to percolate we had great employment numbers and we haven't raised wages. if we get anything hotter than normal as far as inflation, that will give him problems number two, this is not altogether indifferent because we have had alan greenspan when he took office, he had a big crisis right away, bernanke had a big crisis right away. >> dudley was saying yesterday that perhaps a march hike wouldn't be unreasonable what is the view on your side? how many hikes will they go for this year? >> i think we could get surprised by more than expected. i think what he said yesterday was key. we also had some data out of germany that is going to cause problems for draghi as well. this picture is not done the volatility is here to stay we'll have to see everything recalibrate.
that's the wroord everybody is talking about. >> i wonder if your wardrobe is a comment on the bullishness on the market >> market movers >> scott, thank you. the u.s. house is voting on a bill to keep the american government open just after the senate passed a budget that will continue funding the government technically shut down at midnight after congress failed to pass something by the deadline doubts emerged after budget hawks in the republican party objected to deficit spending in the bill senator rand paul made an extensive floor speech raising objections that slowed down the process and forced the shutdown. let's bring in ian shepherds shepherdson now. can i just pick up where we left off talking to scott, and let me bring in the fomc. what are the implications of
this market selldown for them? is there a possibility that they may interrupt the pace of tightening and signal caution? >> not yet the correction so far won't stop them we had a massive rally in january. we have given that back and december's rally, but the market is still up substantially compared to a few months ago echoing bill dudley yesterday, this is knotis not a macro econ event yet. if we get four or five days more like yesterday, things will be different. this has been a prudent and k cautious fed over the last few years, they have backed away from tightening at times of market stress. i can't rule out the idea because the markets have not reached a floor yet. it's a case of see where we are on the data of the meeting
>> is the entire goldilocks economy concept starting to unravel? if yields continue to push higher towards 3% or even 3.25, which is the target that some have, and the dollar goes along for the ride, that's de facto tightening there and that will bite at some point >> it's a tightening but not a big one. for an economy with a 4% unemployment rate and has enormous fiscal stimulus coming down the pike right now, actually from the fed perspective they're looking at a growth picture probably stronger than they expected a couple months ago so from their perspective when drawing up new forecasts in march they're probably thinking we'll get stronger growth, even lower unemployment, and inflation a bit higher than we previously thought, yet the market is saying because the stock market is off a bit we
should stop tightening so there comes a point in every investment cycle where pretty much everything goes down. maybe this is that point in this currency cal now it's dangerous to own bonds because of inflation risk, and wages accelerate because unemployment is heading down to extraordinary low levels what do you want to own in those circumstances? neither of the above >> probably stick with cash then i would like to ask about the spending plan that is in the process of greti igetting agreen the u.s. house as we speak that's projected to increase spending by 300 billion over the next couple of years what impact will that have on gdp and why the fiscal loosening at this point in the cycle >> let me be clear about this. this is crazy. this is the dumbest thing congress could do. the u.s. economy does not need any fiscal stimulus. it's getting big tax cuts and big spending cuts at a time when
the fed is pushing in the opposite direction by raising rates. economic textbooks are full of the idea that policy should be coordinated, so that one arm of government is not contradicting the other arm. but politicians are focusing on the midterm elections, and not beyond what might happen in november the fed is working with a longer time scale, it takes time to implement and see the effect of changes. so congress is doing what the fed doesn't want them to do. had they raised spending and cut tacks three, four years ago i wouldn't have had a problem with it the timing now is beyond apulling the cynicism on display from congress is breath taking. profoundly depressing. >> on that note we have to end it plenty to think about there. one other asset class that has also come under pressure recently is the cryptocurrency
complex. we have seen a big shakeout on bitcoin, ethereum. a few headlines came out about g20 action on cryptocurrency france and germany are calling for joint action at the next g20 meeting and they say the next g20 discussion could lead to a harmonized action on cryptocurrencies so finally governments are beginning to get together and think about how they can come up with joint regulation of that asset class. get engaged, join the conversation and e-mail us the address is email@example.com and you can also follow us on twitter, @streetsignscnbc. you can tweed us individually directly coming up on the show, we'll join akiko into jeet ta fujita e
we will take a break from the global stock market and do a bit of sport the opening ceremony of the winter olympics is set to take place in pyeongchang later today. the run up to this edition of the olympics has been dominated by a softening of tensions between north korea and south korea. they will walk out together at today's opening ceremony the sister of kim jong-un has arrived in south korea i suppose you could call her lil' kim akiko, this is going to be nothing short of colorful. you have a tongan cross-country skier and you have a nigerian women's bobsled team
>> yes, it will be a colorful crowd. a lot of people have been walking in with this flag. this is the unified korean flag we will see the south and north korean athletes march behind we have the olympic stadium behind me all lit up ready to go all 12 olympic venues ready to go it's tough to imagine this is the region that is among the least developed here in south korea. now, before the olympic journey began here, there was no major railway, no major airport and just one major highway since then south korea invested $13 billion in infrastructure to prepare for the winter games a big chunk of that going towards a new high speed rail system >> the new rail line connects south korea's capitalto some o the country's most remote villages the 280 kilometer track carrying
passengers east to a little known coastline only accessible by car until now this man rode the train from seoul to explore gangneung's beaches, speeds topping 250 kilometers an hour for albert ahn it's a project nearly six years in the making proposed as part of pyeongchang's olympic promise to invest $13 billion in infrastructure this train will serve as an important pipeline shuttling nearly 21,000 passengers to olympic venues every day >> what was the biggest challenge? >> the mountains, we should make straight lines for high speed. so making construction over tunnels and bridges, it needed
much technology. >> the hope is this new rail line opens up opportunities beyond the olympics, giving korea rail a bigger platform to export its technology abroad >> we are trying to export our high speed technology especially to asian countries such as philippines or malaysia. >> reporter: 13 years after south korea's first entry into high speed rail, the country is finally looking to grow its ambitions abroad hoping to ride the olympic momentum that $13 billion spent on infrastructure nearly double the budget south korea initially had when they pitched for the games. that's still below the $50 billion that russia spent during the sochi games four years ago they found some creative ways to keep costs down. they revamped six existing venues in addition to that, that olympic stadium behind me is a temporary structure. that will be partially torn down
after the games. because of that there is no roof covering those attending the games from elements. that's going to be a big concern. an hour from now, temperatures will be minus 5 to minus 10 degrees inside organizers have had to find creative ways to keep those attending the ceremony warm. >> and we thought it was cold every here in london the winter olympics in pyeongchang will be notable for more than the two koreas marching under a unified flack go to cnbc.com to check out africa's winter hopefuls >> let's check on the markets. i want to draw your attention to u.s. yields. we're about to hear from the u.s. about passing the next spending bill. we heard from ian shepherdson,
he was saying this spending package is coming at a time when the economy is going at 3% does it need this extra impetus? that raises questions about how they'll fund it. some initial estimates are saying this could lead to an extra 10$100 billion, 12$120 bin worth of treasury issuance in t that's about 20% more issuance to come just on the back of these spending measures and the tax cuts that the u.s. administration has introduced. >> that goes to scott's point. there's a natural buyer for all the supply coming to the market. >> are technical factors at play, you have the central bank gone you have extra issuance coming to the market and fundamental factors, the fact that we're beginning to see pick up in u.s. inflation. that is beginning to have an impact on the yields
you know, the other thing is as fixed income moves higher it will reap more carnage in equity space. you were telling me investors in asia have been looking at the 3% mark >> it looks like the bond equity correlation is back, back in earnest. if we do cross 3%, 3% is the big number fsh number, if we cross that on a sustainable basis, that will cause a fair bit of pain in asia debt is quite high over in asia in and in emerging markets. adding to that, you have 3% on the sustainable basis that will attract some outflows. >> one further point to add to yours, it's not all about the nominal yield. we spend time talking about the two-year, the ten-year, you also want to look at where real yields are if you look at the five-year point in the u.s., the real
yield shot up a lot. the break-evens has been tightening so the market is saying fine, we're on board with the central bank tightening but that's not a good thing for inflation we'll see. let's look at u.s. futures and see how the open is. dow jones is looking to open up about 250 points higher. that is an improvement from the volatility we have seen the last couple of days given how much volatility there has been, that could all change in the next couple of hours. that's it from us for now. we'll speak to l'oreal's ceo later today. i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm sri jegarajah have a great weekend "worldwide exchange" is up next. (daniel jacob) for every hour that you're idling in your car, you're sending about half a gallon of gasoline up in the air. that amounts to about 10 pounds of carbon dioxide every week.
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breaking news from wall street to washington, u.s. futures clawing back after the dow plunged more than 1,000 points yesterday the index is on pace to see its worst week since the heart of the financial crisis the u.s. government officially shutting down after lawmakers fail to pass a spending bill by the midnight deadline it's friday, february 9, 2018. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning a warm welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm seema mody in
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