tv Squawk Alley CNBC November 12, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EST
good monday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." i am carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and jon fortt dow is down almost 350 points, nasdaq a full percent as we get news on apple and goldman, sachs. faang is moving lower, apple below $200 a share and testing the 200th day since may. >> something to talk about more this hour. let's continue with the markets. alex dryden, and jeff klein, top
strategist at charles schwab thanks for joining us. alex, i'll start with you. beginning of the year, you called for 3.25% on the ten year yield. have gotten close to it past couple of weeks. >> i think what we are seeing is that impact of high yields knocking onto the equity market. for the course of this economic cycle it has been dominated and supported by there is no alternative trade. everybody piling into equities because you couldn't find anything in bonds. now that the u.s. ten year is up, you're seeing investors going the first time hang on, i am getting a good return in bonds. >> jeff, a lot of thing for investors to watch you have trade tensions, peak earnings concerns, crude oil, bear market, political turmoil
potentially in the u.s., what is the big thing you're focusing on right now? >> well, god, that's quite a laundry list the biggest one is slowing global growth. it is behind everything else we have already seen the peak in economic earnings growth earlier for this cycle remember in 2019, all major economies are expected to slow china is the only one expected to implement stimulus. the rest will be hiking rates and tightening policy. it is not a question of whether there's a slowdown but how fast it comes into place. it is a good time to think about fixed income and treasuries and replacing more volatile aspects of your portfolio like the emerging market sector or trimming tech stocks, considering areas like health care >> alex, that said, sap announces a monster deal to buy
kwaltrix this company was going to go public this week, yanked back from that. that says something positive about m and a, about companies' appetite for growth, especially after ibm, red hat why aren't we seeing that effect >> when investors look at those deals they're big green lights about where we are in the economic cycle this is classic late cycle textbook plays where you see m and a activity and ipo come in investors read it and being forward looking are nervous where we are in the cycle. going back to what it means from asset allocation, we have been saying while we are cautiously optimistic on outlook going forward, we encourage people to start maybe bubble wrapping portfolios, moving out of some growth names into value names.
>> ibm and sap are clearly not doing that they're trying to invest in growth. >> that would be an exact late cycle indicator which is to me an early warning sign where we are in this cycle. that's why going back to my theme, cautiously optimistic, not getting ahead in this stage of the economic cycle. >> jeff, if we're in a period it is peak margin and corporations have to start tighten lg belts in 2019, are we going to start to reward firms that announce more store closures, layoffs, productivity initiatives in the next quarter or two? >> if it looks like they're effective at defending margins, then perhaps we're getting into an environment where the feds may be increasingly rewarded that said there are areas there is some business spending taking place, mention a couple of names in the business oriented side of the tech space which aren't sharing super high valuations,
are still seeing growth in an area underbuilt in the last ten years. there are some opportunities where growth is the emphasis for the most part, investors might be looking more favorably on defense >> gentlemen, thank you. al let's get to david faber ge down 54 and a half percent. worst year since '08 he sat down earlier this morning as the stock sank not long after that david, good morning again. >> another tough day for ge, after friday's decline in stock price in part on the report. jpmorgan has a $6 price target his first interview since taking over as ceo six weeks ago, has been on the board of ge since april. again, no shortage of challenges he was very up front about that
i think throughout our interview. not sugar coating things ahead, but being sure to say liquidity is not an issue, but it is about getting leverage down and facing the other side of it, not just debt but lack of free cash flow and lack of earnings against it that is increasing that leverage ratio as well. one key thing i asked him, there's a change in perception, there was a time not long ago conceivably when ge would have argued the conglomerate model was a positive they helped to attract the best and brightest in various parts of the company because they worked in concert with each other, but now you're facing a different situation. you have aviation and health care, two very strong businesses that are suffering to a certain extent because they're saddled with the difficulty times in power and significant liabilities at ge capital that remain so i asked him under that
scenario are you still able to attract the best and the brightest and keep the high performing employees that you do have >> there's no question with the stock where it is, the criticism we received that employees here feel that, more so in the u.s. than outside the u.s again, i think what i have seen is a level of commitment, a level of grit and resilience to fight, to continue to serve customers, to be part of the mission that we have in each of our -- >> can you attract people you need to and keep people you want to keep as well in that environment? >> we have to prove that out i have been encouraged by the responsive gotten from folks i reached out to, the folks that have basically contacted me directly not everybody is going to be attracted to a challenge like this, particularly given where
we are today, but the people we want, frankly, david, are. they don't scare easily. >> don't scare easily, morgan. of course. neither does mr. kulp, again, having a successful tenure at danaher, but this is a very different challenge than he took on during 14 very successful years at that company. >> very much the case. seems to me there's still a lot of questions remain unanswered you got the insurance reserve review that we saw results of that last year huge surprise to investors to the down side, accounting probes from doj, sec, the subprime mortgage situation that continues to be an overhang. any sort of insight, suggestion that we could see clarity on bigger, more longer term issues? >> i did ask him very
specifically in terms of citing fears amongst investors who perceive value but are concerned they still don't have their arms around it, and he was fairly confident in terms of not expecting to see anything unexpected when it comes to additional liabilities being unearthed, but it is a concern for investors as is leverage of the company they're trying to attack interesting listening to bob wright last hour talk about many of the poorly timed moves in terms of capital allocation that put ge in the current position mr. kulp made it cleep this is not something that will -- clear this is not something that will be overnight he expects it to be a successful move to right the balance sheet. >> david, thanks what a day of stock movement, of course, and your interview moving the story on that name
honor veterans across the country today and as well here at the new york stock exchange meanwhile, alibaba is setting a new sales day record its singles day record, annual shopping holiday, but shares of some are under pressure as growth rates stall at alibaba. we have the latest >> reporter: thanks, jon want to give context on the slowing growth rate. alibaba raked in just under $31 billion of sales in the space of 24 hours that was up 27%. yes, it is lower than it was last year, which was 39%, but it is still going strong. it is the tenth year of singles day for alibaba. the bar continues to be set high the days of 30, 40% growth are perhaps over there were staggering numbers
that came out, under a minute and a half, raked in sales over a billion, watching the sales take a soar. the success but it hasn't helped the head winds, increased competition in the e-commerce space in china, and concerns over the chinese economy management spoke to reporters last night trying to allay fears, saying alibaba is continuing on the path of globalization, and it is a growth trend that will help the company, and it is helping foreign brands get into china, it is a key platform they talked about successes u.s. brands had in china, apple, for example, a top selling mobile phone brand in singles day, and starbucks said it set its own sales record via their e-commerce platforms for singles
day. big success there. the problem is none of it helped give investors allay fears about head winds facing alibaba. that's why shares are under pressure today guys, back to you. >> major event we look for signs of china's economy. thank you so much. when we come back, we watch shares of apple. 193.11 we talk to kara swisher whether it is a watershed moment for valuations in tech "squawk alley" back after this so lionel, what does being able to trade 24/5 mean to you? well, it means i can trade after the market closes. it's true. so all... evening long. ooh, so close. yes, but also all... night through its entirety. come on, all... the time from sunset to sunrise. right. but you can trade... from, from... from darkness to light.
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into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. . dow down 400 big reason is goldman, sachs another is apple look at faang stocks apple down as stocks sell off. is this a watershed moment for tech valuations in 2018? kara swisher, editor at large and co-founder of recode a provocative piece she's written about amazon good to have you back. >> good to see you. >> you walk into work this morning, find another analyst trimming price target on apple, another supplier talking about supply issues regarding apple,
not by name of course. is this death by a thousand cuts >> i think apple had such a run up as you know and went to the trillion dollar status and everything i'm not surprised there's pull back, especially when it is not clear what products are next this is the latest product for example, did you buy the latest iphone? i didn't i kept the current one i had i think it is a question of exciting products moving forward, and in that interim period, there's a selloff given how much it is run up. overall in general in tech we're sort of in a period now where there are a lot of negatives and not many positives to look forward to, so i'm not surprised. >> kara, that being the case, i go back to sap taking out kwaltrix, that's not fallow if you're sequoia or one of the investors in there, and
others are snapped up as you have increasing cloud wore, companies are trying to get more data to get better access to customers. >> that's separate these are startups that bigger companies need to grow that's the question. where does growth come from, where does innovation come from, where's the next wave of innovation i think you wouldn't argue we are in a period of not so much innovation the question is what's the next platform, giant growth spurt mobile has been going a long time now everybody is sort of searching for what's next, such as cloud and other areas. i think you're going to see buying up of things for large companies to maintain growth it is great for startups, especially quality startups. that's not the same as what's going on with apple. >> kara, is that sort of the bull case longer term for bigger tech companies i realize they have to keep buying stuff to maintain their growth, but they continue to get bigger and bigger.
i imagine it makes it harder and harder for smaller companies to break in and be competitive. >> i always said that. if you look at some of the companies, they're like semi trailers running down the highway where nobody can get by. the only way to get buy is get bought i think you're going to see more purchasing cisco did this, kept buying and growing, buying and growing. you have to wonder where the big growth opportunities are for apple going forward. they're not very inquisitive it would be interested if they started buying on any scale which they haven't done. i can't remember the last thing, it is big, but i don't remember what the last apple purchase was, but it was small, relatively small. >> kara, does it mean the long term structural stories we talked about on air for a couple of years now, ar, vr, mobility, that the tipping point for those trends is further out than we thought? >> i don't know. have you rushed to buy a vr set?
i don't think the applications are there yet. they're trying to break through with voice that's a big thing we did a great story on recode saying it is still not there there's still not a must-have product in that area same with ar, vr cars are not quite there it is a product that not mainstream buys but early adopters or wealthy people essentially. so the question is where is the next wave. again, mobile has carried us far. ten years now i think in mobile. >> do you think it makes valuations of private firms like uber, even wamo, as overextended >> i think it is early you think directionally and now. directionally we're all going to be in self driving cars, it is maybe after you and i are long dead everybody will be in a self driving car, so that's the direction you want to go the question is what's directionally more important i think what's more exciting is
what's going on with amazon or uber there are questions around the valuation in the $120 billion figure directionally, it is the correct way, right, if you think about it a airbnb and things like that. i am not a short term wall street player. i would fail as a stockbroker. >> or succeed. kara, i hear what you're saying on the bigger picture, mega trends, smart phones, cloud in particular a lot of runway seems to be gone for that i think back to 2002, 2003, a lot of people were saying there will never be another boom like the dot com boom slow growth here on out. i wonder often times there's a strong enterprise cycle underlying, even though the major consumer movements that pave the way are done. is there a possibility that we risk missing that if we think all of the big stuff is done >> oh, no, enterprise. there are all kinds of changes
to be made in enterprise, and so many companies to change the way we work, how work is done is still a huge giant landscape for lots of companies. ones that take advantage are going to do great. i am going to interview andy jassy, and i can't wait. i think enterprise, business, health care, you think of changes that can happen in health care, very difficult. at the same time, innovations are happening, where in china i keep going back to this china thing. the most exciting companies are in china or in areas you don't know i was recently talking with a bunch of vcs, i went around to talk about what they're investing in a lot has to do with how we change payments or working payments one company was cool, it was a paper you put on fruit that made it last longer without chemicals. it was fascinating there's so much waste in food delivery there are all kinds of ideas
maybe you're not seeing that are technology but not -- it is not the next -- what's social media next or search next or mobile next i don't know what the next big tech trend is and i don't think we're going to know it until it happens upon us. >> i need that food product for my frig. you wrote this article that local retail has advantages jeff bezos can't replicate. >> it could have advantages. i bought a second home in washington, d.c. where my kids live, and i couldn't resist amazon it was so much better. i don't buy a ton, i buy a regular amount, i am not a crazy user, yet i use it a lot i have to say every time i turned around, they had better data, better customer service, better delivery, better prices, better selection it was hard to resist. i was amazed how hard it was then i went around and found some retailers doing things that
amazon can't replicate, like creativity one store on 14th near where i live, creative, fun shopping another one, human customer service was so good, i could have bought anything there on amazon but i enjoyed the customer service another one was complete unique products that you can't find anywhere but i have to tell you, each of them said amazon is also killing them they have to fight it. it is harder than a couple of years ago. each of those retailers knows they're in a real struggle with how good people -- now people instead of pretending around in scores, okay, i can get it on amazon i think there are ways to beat them >> but your piece makes clear they've gotten through to you a little bit worth reading on recode. >> it is really good i don't know what else to say. so good. >> kara swisher.
oil prices weighing on european stocks latest rebound on crude is putting pressure on the ftse 100 which is an energy sensitive index, down six-tenths%. even with the rebound in oil prices today, the european energy sector is the worst performing sector in the past quarter, led by losses in british petroleum. onto italy, the latest headlines suggest italian government is not planning to back down from the 2.4 deficit target ahead of the deadline for resubmission. setting up for another showdown with eu officials in brussels. theresa may is facing criticism on her brexit approach, raising concerns of a no deal plan that's resulted in a drop in the uk pound, down 1% against the u.s. dollar. spoking of currency. europe oh trading at the lowest
level since june of 2017 as political head winds from italy to brexit weigh on investor sentiment. one stock in focus, british american tobacco shares falling on news that the fda is reportedly pursuing a ban on menthol cigarettes in the u.s. they say those sales are about a quarter of the company's profits. they listed shares of british american tobacco trading at nearly a four year low guys, back to you. >> thank you sue herera has a news update >> thank you very much here's what's happening at this hour, everyone the you know atomic watchdog agency says iran continues to stay within limitations set by the nuclear deal reached in 2015 the agency said it had access to all sites in iran it needed to visit, and that inspectors confirm iran kept within limits.
tensions between israel and gaza strip flaring up amid reports that militants fired projectiles into israel and one hit a civilian bus black smoke billowing into the air from the area of that mortar strike. several thousand central american migrants are on vehicles and trucks on a highway as they prepare to move north to the border the border city of tijuana is still more than 1500 miles away. back at home, department of health and human services updated its physical activity guidelines says children should get an hour or more of moderate to vigorous activity a day adult should aim for 150 to 300 minutes of moderate or 75 to 150 minutes of vigorous activity each week. that's the news update this hour back downtown to "squawk alley." guys, back to you. >> that's not as much as i thought they were going to say >> i thought it was a lot. i don't know i'm putting on the running shoes
and walking around the building. >> there you go. sue herera thank you. straight ahead much more on general electric. watch shares dip below 8 dollars earlier in the session one analyst maintains his buy rating on the stock. more "squawk alley" is back after this >> whether it is an equity analyst or rinatgs agencies or what we set ourselves, we need to bring the leverage down
markets in sell off mode the dow down 431 bob pisani is on the floor, josh lipton looking at apple's slide, down nearly 5%, and mike santoli. amazon is back in bear market territory and also ge shares punished today more on that company in a moment first, let's start with bob. >> i think two things are going on first, general concern about apple and demand for iphone. secondly, a valuation takedown of faang names is continuing and we have seen a couple of months. facebook and apple are down 4%, netflix, alphabet weak there were concerns about an apple supplier mentioned potentially lower shipments, one of the companies out there, they do optical components for the iphone, so we see some semi
conductors down, advanced micro, nvidia, micron and apple suppliers are down all on the down side now apple suppliers are weak as well semi conductors also on the weak side dow movers, i think it is interesting it is not just tech. if you look at jpmorgan and goldman, sachs, notably weak today. the market is acting -- big bank names are acting like first quarter of 2019 won't be good for capital markets. hard to read tea leaves on what's going on with goldman jpmorgan also on the weak side you have johnson and johnson and procter & gamble, coke, up
when you get a 50 day crossing the 200 day, it is a negative technical indicator. a lot of people are talking about that now guys, back to you. z >> thank you, bob. sap buying survey software company. that deal approved by boards of both companies they compete with survey monkey and other companies. survey monkey went public in september. it is bigger and more profitable >> they do surveys we re-invent customer experiences in a whole new category called experience management if you want to survey somebody, hire survey monkey if you want to fundamentally change the way enterprise thinks of the culture, brand, products,
people, you are talking qualtrics. >> this is a big premium qualtrics had 300 million in revenue end of last year $8 billion is quite a multiple it is interesting along this trend of getting data about why employees are doing what they're doing, why customers are doing what they're doing this is what adobe and sales force are fighting over, among a lot of other companies. >> do you think that big premium is why shares are down 6.5% today? >> hard to tell when so many things are down. >> it is the second biggest deal after concur >> $8 billion is huge. yeah >> all right we continue to watch shares of apple, speaking of tech. those are down nearly 5% second worst performer in the dow. josh lipton is watching the price action josh >> reporter: apple is under
pressure, leading tech lower as investors react to news from one of the key suppliers you heard bob just talking about it lumentum saying a large customer cut orders they didn't name that customer, but that laser maker enables the feature on iphone. apple execs stress the supply chain is big, complex. they argue for investors to extrapolate trends from a handful of data points da davidson's mark kelleher says other companies like finisar, another company announced they were buying them, but apple in the red now. investors worry what it means for the iphone franchise just today, jpmorgan that rates apple overweight trimmed
earnings estimates saying they have forecast modest year over year declines in iphone shipments on account of weaker emerging market and currency head winds bulls say apple has multiple levers to pull from here, including iphone average selling prices, services growth, buy backs. but bears are focused on unit growth which they say looks weak apple is down about 12% since reporting earnings november 1st. jon, back to you >> thank you for more, gene munster, and mike santoli. welcome. gene, i'm not sure how much we should focus again on reports often based on rumor, especially since apple is no longer going to give us unit sales of iphone. the stock is not going to move on actual average selling prices, it will move on overall ref are -- revenue and strategic
services >> what you're also seeing in the pull back is that there's a trust factor we have to have with apple with the new guidance methodology, not giving units out as you talk about. analysts in this case aren't going to be able to tune what we hear from supply chain directly to an iphone number. i think it is the right thing. i want to stress that. this is a great use case, what we see today about shifting methodology. if they deliver and 5% revenue growth they talked about, if they deliver that, that will be reassuring to investors not to worry about fire drills. i want to stress the fire drill theme. in josh's piece he talked about two other suppliers that account for about half the lasers used for augmented reality.
half that. it is tough to connect the points we're going to be at a phase where investors are going to be concerned until proven different, which will be end of january. but i think ultimately apple's guidance will be able to stand as is. >> mike santoli, i don't know if i buy the narrative about shifting toward value when you've got apple down 4.5% here's a company with a huge dividend, very stable, high loyalty. kind of picking between the obvious narrative. >> biggest buy back in the history of the stock market. what's happening is i think that there's a general suspicion of any big tech stocks that were contracted one decision stocks, buy them, own them forever, now that they've worked in reverse, you have a lot of profits underneath apple shares still even with the pull back. i think the market, whatever we have been in, this thing, for six weeks, we're still in it we're still in unwinding crowd
in tech trade, revaluing faang lower, being suspect of what 2019 earnings will be. i don't think it is rotation to value, i think it is a step back from risk and it is the on-goingness of the issues that has the market's mind, whether it is china or the fed the bull case for the overall market and tech is overly reliant on things like seasonal tail winds, buy backs. these nonfundamental factors why? because earnings are great and haven't moved the entire market up. >> gene, what would you tell someone at nvidia all year, six weeks ago were riding a 60% gain for the year, now they're red for the year what does that do to sent meant? >> you tell them if you have a one year investment horizon, you shouldn't own nvidia it is a high multiple stock. these are going to continue to be impacted in this environment.
nvidia is a perfect example of a two to five year play. if you have the luxury of that type of investment, this company is exceptionally positioned. and i would argue that nvidia has the best chip technology in the world. second best is apple i think they have 2,000 engineers that work on their chip nvidia is leading in terms of what's going on on the gaming side, future of autonomy, and more in block chain, crypto. a well positioned two to five year window. my advice would be one year people shouldn't be there, two to five year investor should be. >> mike, the breadth of selling in the tech sector is pretty broad. you have almost three-quarters of the sector, the stocks in correction levels or worse now keep hearing this is it, this is going to be a stock picker's market is this going to be a stock picker's market or just a reflection of the fact that everybody is holding efts?
>> it is a stock picker's market in terms of some areas radically outperformed right now, we're in the kind of market it is easier to pick the wrong ones than the right ones i don't think it is about people piling out of efficiets, it is revaluation of risk tolerance in the market tech is making the indexes look worse. on the new york stock exchange, you're two stocks down for every one up equal weighted s&p is doing much better this is one of those days when we had so many of these, tech made the market better than it was, this made it look tougher. >> maybe we're at least moving out of the dark throwing market. coming up, shares of ge slumping after david faber's
stop. jim cramer with us for the hour on all things markets and unusual activity in stocks that could be about to move based on options action. all at noon. morgan, about ten away see you then >> looking forward to it, scott. shares o shares of ge on pace for its worst year since 2008, down 50% for the year joining us for more is shareholder and analyst scott davis, hanks for joining us today. >> happy to be here, morgan. >> larry culp's first broadcast interview this morning at the helm of ge, if you had to give him a grade, what would it be? >> i'd give him a c-plus, maybe a b-minus. larry still thinks his reputation from the past is good enough to carry him and, quite frankly, a lot of portfolio managers don't remember larry or weren't involved and there's a lot of folks that are just waiting for some details, some meat on the bone >> where do you stand on the
stock? did you hear anything today that would change that? >> look, ge is either going bankrupt or the stock will double i don't think it's going bankrupt you have $120 billion of revenue with this company. i think they have longer term at least the ability to generate at least $10 billion of cash out of those revenues but they have a balance sheet problem. they're not generating much cash now and they need to plug some holes. it's been a real mess. larry didn't say anything new today. he stayed on script with the earnings release nothing new. i think the market wanted to hear something more conclusive >> we still don't have updated guidance for this year or 2019 there's overhang longer term for the stock. i mentioned them earlier in the hour, the annual insurance reserve review which i think a lot of folks have focused on the regulatory probes, a number of other things. what do you see is the biggest
potential skeleton still in the closet are there some >> we'll find out. this reminds me of late 2008 when ge stock was down at these levels before there were all kinds of concerns about commercial real estate and whether ge had $10 billion of loss it was a huge spread we're looking at insurance liabilities, at s.e.c. lawsuits, doj, you know, i mean, a lot of debt, pension liabilities. i think larry needs to help people identify or at least circle the range of outcomes ge was able to do that in 2009 and the stock rallied from $6 back up to 30. this is a similar situation. >> scott, you're invested in the stock personally what would you say to them now
>> i share their pain. as an analyst and a share owner this is terrible i had someone in my office who said this feels like lehman brothers all over again. ge was a great american company and it's really fallen on hard times. i think those of us who still own it or are recommending the stock are trying to dig out from underneath this avalanche of negative news and find out if there's any value here >> scott davis from melius research, thank you for joining us d happy to be here. >>ow down 456. back after a short break i am a family man.
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raging wildfires have been devastating california aditi roy with the latest. aditi? >> reporter: hi, carl. we are at the command post for the woolsey fire and the wind gusts here have really kicked up it's the fiercest challenge right now. this is the one in northern california called the campfire, the biggest in the state, the most destructive in the state's history and the death toll is staggering 31 lives lost across all three wildfires in the state the campfire alone has 29 deaths matching the record for deadliest fire in the state's history that was first set in 1933 hundreds more are missing. that number could sadly rise the fires have scorched more than 200,000 acres, nearly 7,000
structures destroyed, another 72,000 homes threatened. 250,000 people evacuated back to you. absolutely tragic and a big reason some utilities are not benefiting from the rise in that sector today our thoughts are with california let's get to wapner and "the half." i'm scott wapner as long as the faangs keep falling can the market find its footing? as long as apple is upset, can the correction be declared over? it is 12:00, noon, and this is "the halftime report." stock drop if we go lower, how do we know when it's safe to get back in? plus, portfolio protection ge's ceo speaks. >> we have quality franchises and we have options. and finding opportunity in a few key quality names including today's "call of the day" starbucks. "the halftime report" starts right now.