tv Fast Money CNBC January 30, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
25,000, tremendous news. >> which it's done before. >> which means i think he's not going to put as much pressure on jay powell actually. >> positive day here the dow was up 434 points. >> earnings boost, fed boost. >> that does it for "closing bell," thanks for watching >> "fast money" begins right now. >> wow. "fast money" starts right now after a major market rally the fed and earnings sparking joy on wall street the dow up more than 400 points today, closing right around 25,000 again top strategist mike wilson says it is a trap he'll be here to explain that massive move followed by a huge amount of earnings. facebook, tesla, qualcomm and more reporting julia boorstin is outside of facebook headquarters, phil lebeau is jumping on the tesla call and deidre is watching
also gene munster is here with the double red phone on facebook right now and he'll be jumping on the tesla call as well. we'll check with him in just a moment first let's start off with the biggest mover, facebook. the stock is up by about 8% after a massive beat despite all the controversy surrounding the social media giant is it safe to buy facebook once again? is this a sign that bang fang i back >> i will say eye of the tiger along with abracadabra -- >> survivor, rocky 3. >> draggo. >> terrible music. >> i tell you what, i think apollo creed is coming after you right now. >> i'm glad we're talking about this instead of facebook. >> it is a big night and we should talk about the market let me point this out. when the s&p was 25, 30, 150 or so s&p points ago that's where i thought it would top out i thought we'd test those december 24th's low. here we are with facebook up 8%
off of earnings. you obviously saw what happened with apple last night. so you're asking is the fang trade alive and well i hope mike wilson can say some things to clarify for me because i've been wrong. the problems that facebook faces, they have not gone away if anything, they have gotten worse. what i think the market told you last night with apple, which was a good quarter, not a great quarter, with iphones down 15% year over year, guiding lower revenues year over year, the market is saying, you know what, valuation suggests the worst is over and the mark is going higher. >> valuation in facebook is not easy to push around. in other words, it's a cheap stock. it's a cheap stock that's been cheap. even before the worst of their problems arguably traded cheap through the space. some of the comps got pretty easy this quarter. the time spent comp is actually something not difficult to overcome it's still a very strong quarter and to me will come down to how
they can guide on both op ex, cap ex, and profitability and if they have a handle on their core business. >> you can make the argument they pulled a pretty good trick here they guided earnings down because of operating expenses going up the way they were expectations got so low, op ex got so high here we are we're expecting 2019 to be flat year over year and earnings are down a little bit we can all agree on a $60 billion revenue number if they're able to move those expenses now, this is going to be a profitable company growing again, trading in the high teens multiples. >> and that speaks to -- not to cut you off, but that speaks to positioning. so facebook was absurdly positioned, and now you have microsoft and tesla which have been expected to do okay during this and they're down. >> let me get this straight in terms of facebook specifically you think that the problems are not necessarily over, the notion that it needs to spend a lot
more to deal with these problems, that's not put aside but because sentiment was so bad, stock got knocked down so much, valuation got so reasonable that it's okay. it's okay for right now at least? >> we forgot this is arguably one of the most profitable companies in the world but i don't want to start loving the stock 30% off the lows i'm not jumping into buy it shouldn't surprise people but i do think you got to a place where the expectations on the company's core business were thrown out the window. so i think instagram is obviously a bright spot for these guys i think the jury of public perception is a head wind for them, regulation is a head wind. the cost of business is head winds and i think it should trade cheap, i don't need to jump in. >> users and engagement i think is the main issue for facebook it is the 800-pound gorilla in the room when you get to advertising. i'm with him i don't think you want to jump in when the stock is this aggressively off the lows, but i
think positioning was that terrible and i believe the market is going to sell off. so i think this will be taken down along with the market. >> even though we saw growth go down, if revenue per user increases, isn't that all you need >> i think mike isaac talked about how they're going push all their messaging apps together. they're trying to monetize that billion plus users on whatsapp that they're not mon advertisemg maybe that's payments. that's all coming. so i guess the point is we can sit here and talk about how they're getting their $60 billion. remember what zuck said in congress, we run ads, senator. that's what they do. there's other levers for them to pull in the future did you buy the stock below 140 and now it's 160 but these guys have such a huge advantage over almost every other platform in this space
it's down 40% from its all-time highs. it's a massive secular thing that is a decade old and will be two decades old and they'll still be in the top. >> you remember this because you have a mind like a steel trap. july conference call for facebook. >> yes. >> that was quite -- >> july conference call. >> -- a volatile moment. >> the stock traded down 24.3% in about eight minutes if memory serves we were all sitting here i think pete was over where tim is sitting and it was a ridiculous move to the downside. but it's a point well taken if something like that can happen at facebook once, who's to say it won't happen again. >> the stock is still below that level, by the way. >> it is still below that level. it was 163 or so but i'll say this. if people haven't fleed facebook -- >> fleed is not a word. >> fled. >> but we understand what you're saying. >> over the last month months, when are they going to do it
either it's too hard to delete your account or people are just too wrapped up in it. >> how about the other movers? >> shall we do microsoft here's a stock that's underperformed year to date. but it's really only about 8% or so from those all-time highs but it was trading about 24 times. you think about it here's a name that has really tough comps, trading 24 times. you say very rich to the market and rich to its mega cap top peers but if it's not a beat and raise and people don't see it, office 365 and azure, the thing is not going much higher. >> it's high growth, high margin businesses that did so well in the second half of last year we are going into a year where if you believe that economic growth will be challenged around the world and you've got a high bar to beat or exceed in the second half of this year, those things coincide, it's not good timing for microsoft.
>> but if you look at azure, a couple of years ago it was 5% and now you're up to 30% i think they're going the right direction. they are the hybrid cloud play they're the one to catch up to, the one to beat or the benchmark. i think ultimately you'll be okay here. today it was just overexpectations. >> we need to see some visibility from them in a world that has weaker i.t. spending. cloud has been a place that's under some pressure. they actually just raised prices last quarter in terms of server products i think if you listen to everybody else that's reported to them that has some major exposure to cloud, and especially kma-- they have been outperforming because of the expectations this is no surprise. they were very, very low i think with microsoft this was an absolutely fine quarter this company still continues to
be probably the class of the tech space right now because of the consistency of their business model it's a very smooth approach. they have a predictable revenue stream and that's what the market wants to pay for. >> you know what's moving in the after-hours session, tesla >> i'm in your head. >> plus or minus 10% is the average move for this stock and it's down 2%. >> i would talk to the o.a. guy. didn't you do an options action -- >> that was the other o.a. guy, but go for it, buddy give it a shot. >> i'm surprised, given the environment we find ourselves in, i'm surprised the stock is in the range that it's in. the stock has vacillated between 250 and 360 or so over the last two and a half, three years. that's where it is if you're in the middle of it now, so in my opinion you're flipping a coin. i'd wait for it to trade lower to buy it. i wouldn't do anything here. >> don't you think they got a break when this whole saudi arabia story -- i know we've talked about it but the more and
more you read about that that was supposed to be the lifeline now they have totally hedged their foreign change position in the name, that to me speaks volumes on the growthiness of tesla. >> if you're a real believer >> exactly. >> for more let's bring in gene munster. gene, a lot to choose from let's start off with facebook, why do you think the stock is up so much? >> it's up because expectations were so low. there were a lot of people like me who were doubters on the facebook story if you look at the quarter, it was quite impressive particularly around the user growth numbers, up 9% year over year in the face of what dan was talking about, those tough delete facebook campaigns. that really is something that facebook can feel good about, that their user growth is sustainable. second is advertisers really have no place to go. this is the only platform that has scale and the targetability of ads and so you see that in the revenue per user increasing.
i think that's evidence advertisers have nowhere to go i do want to draw that line between the quarter and the company longer term. i think we're still not out of the clear here in particular, they will talk on the call, which is just getting going, about a change in air ad units going from news feed to stories, which are harder to monetize, and separately what's going to happen around regulation fundamentally i think that we haven't reached an inflection point on the positive side on the tesla story, but they did a great job in the face of a lot of headwinds in the september quarter. >> even though the metrics looked good, gene, the jury is still out in their switch from stories more so to news feeds that you'll get the same sort of ad sell-through rate there are fewer ads in stories versus the news feed, correct? >> that's right. the stories, they took a page from snapchat here, facebook did, and the stories product
doesn't have as long of a shelf life and disappears after a day. that's harder to monetize. zuckerberg recognizes that facebook fundamentally, the part about comparing yourself to others does not make the world a better place so they're trying to steer towards more enlightening engagements and stories tends to be between friends and family that's why they're going for this so i think that it's important that investors recognize that at the core, at the top, facebook wants to push a product that the monetization is lower than their current bread and butter news feed. >> what do you make of tesla so far, gene? >> i think the market has got this wrong tesla, this is probably an example if you look at the quarter, it didn't seem to be that great but i think it lays the foundation for this company reaching escape velocity, which means they can ride this ev curve. the two more encouraging points is model 3 gross margin, the second consecutive quarter above 20%. that's the key
70% of tesla units next year will be model 3. that's important the second piece is that demand overall for model 3 despite the increase in competition continues to do well they have opened up some new markets with china and europe and that seems to be on pace and the guide down was more on in-transit vehicles. it takes five to seven weeks to get cars over to those markets so it's less about an issue of demand and more about the logistics of moving the cars around i was very encouraged. i suspect the stock will ultimately trade higher the next few days. >> what's your biggest question on this call which starts in 15 minutes or so? >> the biggest question on the tesla call is them trying to really get down to the u.s. piece of demand. we know the global demand is great. how that tax impact -- that tax effect has impacted that also i'll be listening if we get any hints to the model suv category, that's one of the hottest categories the third is when we're going to
see that $35,000 price that is when this tesla story really gets moving, when that $35,000 model 3 is available. >> gene, we'll check in with you a little later on in the show. what's your reaction based on what gene has said about either of these names >> he started out by saying he thinks the street has got it wrong. >> on tesla. >> i just don't see it i just don't see that model 3 ever being $35,000 i see this company as a recession away from being desperate to secure funding for whatever they can do you know, listen, they make great cars, he's a great entrepreneur, they're doing a lot of interesting things. i just don't buy the story anymore. i don't like the fact that before this guide down, he's out last week talking about critical profitability, all that sort of stuff. it just stinks to me so i don't know how shareholders feel good about the messaging that we get about this company and it seems to change quite often. >> nothing new on that i'd say, look, we've had a lot of news and data points out of tesla the last two months and
some of it on deliveries have been good. we've gotten some issues in terms of demand, some in terms of staffing and pressure in terms of the business model. it doesn't surprise me from 380 to 280 we're trading near the bottom of that range. >> that call starts in about 15 minutes. full coverage of all the earnings calls we'll bring you the latest headlines. plus a massive day to the markets. the dow surging 400 points and the fed gave the green light to wall street. but mike wilson says this rally is a trap. he'll be here to explain why he is calling the bulls dangerous animals. we're live from times square in new york city. much more "fast money" right tethis
welcome back to "fast. thefederal reserve holding steady as fed chair jerome powell telling wall street what it wanted to hear. steve liesman joins us now live from the federal reserve in washington, d.c., with more on that steve, it was like a bull's dream here what the fed said. >> christmas. >> yeah, or a dovish dream after they just hiked six weeks ago, this is a sweeping policy reversal, giving the doves everything they were looking for and maybe some things they weren't looking for they got in this thing the fed kept rates unchanged and it would be, quote unquote, patient in considering other hikes and removed the language that telegraphed further rate increases ahead.
>> growth has slowed in some major foreign economies, particularly china and europe. there is elevated uncertainty around several unresolved government policy issues, including brexit, ongoing trade negotiations, and the effects from the partial government shutdown in the united states. financial conditions tightened considerably late in 2018 and remain less supportive of growth. >> analysts took the new policy pronouncement to mean it is on hold at least six months pending more clarity in the economic outlook. the fed said its plans to reduce the $4 trillion balance sheet is on auto pilot. an economist called it, quote, a strategic retreat. ian shepardson said it was about as dovish a statement as possible powell said the fed could take its time now so here's what's unclear if the fears of the weaker
growth that gripped the markets proved to be transitory will th fed double pack again or is it the fed poised for a more permanent patience -- i just got the bank of america note on the fomc meeting today and it said the hawks have left the building >> i think it certainly seems like that. you've got to wonder, steve, if we'll be back to square one in terms of the market thinking if we get a china trade deal. >> right. >> something that will theoretically boost growth and something where the fed is back in play and the markets retreat or feel like there's a lid on them. >> i think the markets need to stabilize here i think there's two things that spooked the fed here the magnitude of the decline of markets but as you remember, melissa, it was not a pleasant way it went down these were incredible moves that raised questions about what exactly is going on in the markets. i think they need to see a little clarity in the outlook. i do think they want to be a little bit higher from here, but
i don't think they feel like they have to get there very fast. >> all right steve, thank you so much steve liesman live from the fed for us so was this the green light that wall street was waiting for, grasso, what do you think? >> no, i don't think so. once again it gets back to a macro positioning. i don't understand where foul said there was zero inflation in august, then inflation in october and zero inflation again. i do believe the spigots turned on can turn off. i think qt is ambiguous in his explanation so i don't think this is the all-clear sign. >> i don't agree with it in terms of someone that's following fed policy and thinks the fed needs tough love they got out of the way and said we're not on auto pilot on the balance sheet. they basically told you the economy is in really good shape but now we're letting financial conditions in the form of really the stock market affect how we're going to manage policy the fed is basically stuck back
into easy money. if you're an investor right now while they're doing that, it's a green light. frankly i think it's all about the fed. i don't think this is about trade. i think what's bothered the market, and we've now have a "v" in the stock market. it's not a "w," it's a "v. the fed overstepped their bounds and now has completely hid in the corner. >> this was the put, right this was the powell put. if you were a participant in the markets and seen what's gone on, you think, hey, we throw a tantrum in response to what the fed may or may not do, and the fed backs off. you know what that is? that's a put. >> i could be 100% wrong but i'll say this anyway i think raising rates strengthens the economy. might weaken the stock market, but puts us on more stable footing. being accommodative, all it does is make asset prices go higher but it is built in sand. for the long term it's not
particularly good. >> mel, let me tell you something because we've been doing an options show for ten years? >> ten years. >> what do puts cost they cost money, like dr. wonderful likes to say you may money for puts so the more you use that, you're lessening your return profile every single time, there's a little slippage. to me i don't love hearing that about a put. sooner or later, the chickens will come home to roost. >> our next guest says today's rally was a trap, don't trust it why a trap >> let's back up a month first of all, at the beginning of the year there was true value offered everywhere we overshot to the downside and i think everybody, including ourselves, were calling for a bounce we thought 2650 was a pretty good level to think about lightening up and we've overshot that now the three reasons we rallied
since january, one, powell first sounded dovish on january 4th. that was the real pivot. today was the confirmation of everything that's been kind of going on the second reason was we were massively oversold and there was true value in the marketplace. the third one is this hope around trade potentially getting resolved but in the background, what's actually going on is that the earnings situation is terrible i mean we've been doing this for 25 years the earnings revision is some of the worst that we've seen ever it's telling us the earnings cycle is rolling over even harder than we were thinking six months ago and we were probably the first ones talking about a earnings recession. so when i say it's a trap, i mean this is a bad entry point the good entry point was january, it had a nice bounce. some of the stocks obviously made lows. but i can assure you there will be stocks that retest those lows and break them i'd be shocked if we don't have at least a 50% retracement of the full move, which at which point we would probably get
bullish. >> so the notion that analysts got it wrong going into 2019 in terms of what their estimates for 2019 earnings would be, that happens every single -- it's much, much worse this year it happens every single year the degree of the downturn in december was such that i don't know if analysts will jump out and revise lower at the ending of 2019. they're going to wait until the season so it almost seems like of course that's the way it would happen. >> two things. first of all, the market did overshoot. we wrote about this too. it actually priced in an earnings recession in december but now we're three handles higher action we're not pricing that in the way we were. the revisions are absolutely happening in a different fashion than normal. you're right, normally we come into the year and numbers have to come down gradually over time but these revisions are happening for fundamental reasons. they're missing on sales, missing on margins, lowering on expectations, not because of trade concerns or the fed,
because their businesses are slowing down >> mike, if we're in this late cycle period and we talk about the fed taking their foot off the pedal, we have fed funds at between 2.25, 2.5. we have the 10-year treasury yoe yield at 2.67. what does that say about where we are in the cycle. see, i disagree with tim, because tim keeps saying that it's all about trade i think it has a lot -- >> no, i didn't. i said it's all about the fed. >> my view is it's about a lot of these things. the thing that i'm focused on now is the business cycle and earnings cycle because that's what's not priced. we got the boost from the fed and boost from hope on trade there's real things to buy but the reality is we have to complete this earnings down cycle. that won't be done probably until the springtime or june stocks will discount that. but at 2650, 2700, we're not discounting the continued risk that we see in the revisions still. >> mike, great to have you with us mike wilson of morgan stanley.
we're going to take a break, take a pause no, you know what, because we have -- oh, i thought we were going to jim cramer right now. all right. let's trade this first let's go to cramer we got a cramer alert. jim, what do you make of the fed and today's market rally >> listen, they saw exactly what mr. wilson was just saying which is that things were slowing down and they decided they didn't want to be a part of the reason why the late cycle turned into the no cycle i think they did the good thing. i'm not so sure i want to call it a put i think they looked at what's going on around the world, in some key industries, they looked at what's going on with some of the earnings and said, you know what, we don't need to do anything right now maybe our job is done for now, let's be patient that seems like a very prudent position to take patience seems to be a virtue. and we'll be fine. i'm not nearly -- i don't think we'll get a 50% retracement. i think things were worse and now they have gotten better. i don't think we're going to see that christmas eve low again
that was a really nasty flash crash basically. >> you know, jim, when you take a look at fed funds futures and talk to basically people who are in the markets, there is a belief that there will be no further rate actions at all for 2019 i'm not sure that the fed is quite there. i don't think that they say or they think pause equals end to what they're doing, but do you see that there could be a risk in terms of market volatility? because there is still a gap between what the markets think and what the fed will continue to broadcast. >> if the economy speeds up again, i hope they tighten up. i didn't want them to tighten into what was clearly a deceleration i hope they do put on another rate increase. that's the good rate increase guy was talking about. when we see that kind of economy build up a head of steam again, that's the time for them to take action i would applaud that i think that that shows us that we are a stable, strong economy. we're not right now, but maybe we will be. >> all right i'm sure you'll have a lot more of this on your show
what else is on tonight at 6:00? >> we've got domino's, which i think is one of the great stories of all time. don't forget, super bowl this weekend. i'll forget it because it's the patriots adp was the first to tell us there was a slowdown in the economy and then service now that stock is up only 23 it's rivaling facebook a lot of stocks up 23. >> jim, we look forward to it. thank you so much. good to see you. jim cramer, don't forget to watch "mad money" at 6:00 right after "fast. we're all over the after-hours action mark zuckerberg gives investors a major vote of confidence in the conference call. we'll tell you what he just said that sent the stock soaring. it is up 11.5%. we are just moments away from the start of microsoft and tesla's calls. we'll bring you the very latest. i'm melissa lee. chor"ft ne rht after this lligence, covering virtually every part of your finance business. and so if someone tries to breach your firewall in london & you start to panic... don't. because your cto says we've got allies on the outside...
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welcome back to "fast money. we got an earnings alert in the payment space. paypal is sinking. deidre is in san francisco with wall street reaction >> melissa, a tale of two payments companies and analysts are focusing in on growth in payments volumes visa saw purchase volume growth of 11% this is a number that lisa ellis called perfect a few other analysts said that visa results were better and reported that the macro picture has held up well for the company. paypal on the other hand disappointed investors with its total payment volume or tpv, even though this number grew at 23% in the quarter
paypal is valued higher than visa so expectations are much higher john davis at raymond james says paypal tpv metric is all that matters and the key will be an update on venmo. they are attracting new partners he also said the total number of venmo users that have made a monetizable is 29% venmo payment volumes surpassed ebay volumes so ebay is becoming a smaller and smaller part of the paypal picture venmo and other merchants are picking up the slack, but perhaps not fast enough. >> all right, deidre, thank you. you've liked paypal, dan. >> yeah. we talked about this last week this is one of the first stocks in the s&p 100 to make a new all-time high since the sell-off from the highs a few months ago.
to me expectations are already high the stock is up 10%. this is a stock trading at 32 times. it's got twice the growth in some key areas, something like visa has that's why investors will pay for it it's just consolidating so i think that's one of those secular stories that you want to be in. she just mentioned something the pay with venmo button inside these websites, that's a really, really important growth driver. >> they have been growing like a beast. they grew eps last time around 26%. they grew net revenues by 14% last time around so you're sort of a product of your own success the flip side is that visa, if the world is slowing, 11.3 billion is their number internationally. 9.3 billion is here. so i would be afraid of that i would be a seller of visa here. >> i think paypal now at around 290 a share for 2019, this stock is 30 times. venmo grow almost 80% last quarter. that kind of growth to me is something that is far from
peaking. if anything we're seeing that the monetization efforts are things that are catalyst for the stock. so if i would rather, and i'm not starting my own game here, i would rather own paypal over visa, melissa. while we're doing this, guy, what do you think? would you rather >> are we doing the game >> yeah. >> paypal/visa >> yeah. >> i'll go the other way and say visa i'll say it because i think people are expectinga disappointing quarter. you got low double-digit growth, trades at 22 times forward earnings it will run into trouble at 145, but i think it's going to take a shot at the all-time high which i think was either side of 150. >> is that implied that we're playing the game >> if i don't ask you the question, the game is not officially played. if you bring yourself into a game, then sure, the game is played. i want to move on because facebook up 12.5%. let's check in with gene munster who's been listening in on that call
gene, why is the stock up so much >> the stock is up because they gave guidance on the call. they do not do that in the press release. they reiterated where the street was at for march and for fiscal '19. also talked about the expense structure essentially in line. separately, sheryl sandberg said they now have 2 million advertisers using stories. recall that is the new ad unit that is not as profitable, but she gave some room for optimism saying that the engagement right now is very high they have a long way to go to bridge that monetization gap but she's encouraged i still fundamentally believe the world does not need facebook i'm 50 years old and it will outlive gene munster certainly i think companies like that, that have a business model that they have, i think fundamentally their best days are behind it. i would just quickly mention too, elon musk just said we're
doing two calls at the same time here he just came out and said that they expect 50% unit growth in 2019 even with tough economic times. so that's in line with the street i don't think anybody is going to believe him, but he couldn't come out of the gates being more positive than he is. >> meaning what is the total units to be sold how does that compare? >> basically deliveries. 50% delivery growth, essentially in line with the street. but that comment "even with tough economic times" i think investors won't believe him because they really shouldn't. but i want to lay the groundwork that he is being exponentially bullish, at least at the start of the tesla call. >> what a surprise. >> that stock, by the way, has pared its after-hours session losses and is down 1.25% we'll check back with you in a few minutes. in the meantime let's take a look at tesla. we'll continue listening to this call to see if there are any other shocking headlines coming
>> facebook shares soaring as zuckerberg reassured investors after a year of scandals and he also laid out the areas where he's focusing now. take a listen. >> my approach here is to listen to the critique first, to work on addressing our issues, figure out what we believe are the most important principles to uphold and then go engage in the debate i feel like we've come out of 2018 not only making real progress on important issues but having a clearer sense of what we believe are the right ways to move forward we're still going to make mistakes but we've a clearer sense of the path ahead. >> zuckerberg as well as sheryl sandberg talking about the opportunity they see in the stories format, saying that now has 500 million daily active users with 2 million advertisers investing in that stories format sandberg announcing they now have 7 million total advertisers. also talking about how they see huge opportunity building commerce on their platforms as
well as sharing the fact that their video platform watch, which has more valuable premium ad formats is starting to take off. on the downside, the cfo warning that revenue growth will be decelerating over the course of the year including in the first quarter. he did leave expense growth unchanged at 40% to 50% over 2018 expenses. >> thank you, julia boorstin for us what's the tech trade in tomorrow's session, guy? >> it's not going to hurt it a rising tide lifts all boats. good days everything gets dragged up and bad days you see it on the downside a year of bad headlines for facebook and they basically didn't lose a single user. that's mystifying to me. you have apple talking smack about facebook nothing seems to matter. i think it's ahead of its skis i thought that at 153, though. >> it is amazing to think in
terms of the impact on advertisers, nobody has fled this platform. after all of that, advertisers still go to facebook. >> gene munster made a great point. there's not a lot of places to go the social media place, there's a crowding out for investors as well. let's be clear, where can you place dollars that are geared towards the new media? that's one of the reasons why people want to believe in facebook a couple of these headlines shouldn't be that exciting one of them is privacy concerns continue to be a headwind of growth the other is that expense growth will essentially match revenue growth of is that -- i don't know. >> i would make one other point. next week twitter will report. they had 9 million daily active user decline in that last quarter and that was something that investors didn't care it's been stuck in a range the same issues people are worried about for facebook that they're going to have expenses combatting some of the same stuff, that's going to be really important with twitter next week but listen, i think the point is, is that there are very few places to go twitter is expected to actually
finally have a significant double-digit revenue increase year over year after they contracted last year so that could be one to look at next week. >> and do not miss julia's interview with the coo sheryl sandberg streaming on cnbc.com tonight at 6:10 p.m. eastern time. let's see where we stand right now at some of the other earnings movers. tesla down 1.5%. mike soft is down 3.75%. we'll bring you all the headlines moving all those stocks as we are about 14 minutes in on both of those conference calls. plus amazon is the next fang stock to report tomorrow much more "fast money" right after this to have a hundred percent renewable energy goal. if we don't make this move we're going to have changes in our environment, and have a negative impact to hawaii's economy. ♪ verizon provided us a solution that lets us collect near real time data on our power grid. ♪ if we can create our own energy, we can take care of this beautiful place
welcome back amazon is higher that stock reports tomorrow. dan, why don't you break down the action. >> it's probably a $95 move in either direction, about 5.5% on average over the last four quarters the stock has moved about 3.75%. obviously last october they guided revenues down below consensus and the stock had a big down day look at that one-year chart. that downtrend that has been in place the last three or four months, big level here if they guide revenues down again it gets rejected at that line and is going lower. >> for more options action check out the full show friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. tesla skidding in the after-hours session. that stock is down 1.4%. gene munster is listening to the
call andhe'll tell us the one thing investors are missing about this quarter. microsoft taking a big hit after a revenue miss we'll hear from the ceo in just a few minutes. we're live from the nasdaq in times square much more "fast money" still ahead. what do you look for when you trade? i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪
the company conference call is underway right now let's get to josh lipton in san francisco with more. >> mel, microsoft investors obviously make a bee line for the company's commercial cloud business they hit that right off the top of the call. take a listen. >> our commercial cloud revenue grew 48% averaged by azure revenue growth of 76%. these results speak to us picking the right secular trends in large and growing markets, many of which are still in their infancy as well as focused innovation and execution >> now, mel, satya talked about azure and the partners there, kroger, gap, mastercard, walgreens as well. i had a chance to speak to evercore's kirk but he pointed to some metrics that might have disappointed he brought up windows oem revenue being down 5%, what device makers pay microsoft to
license the operating system no guidance yet on this call but the cfo is on the call and we'll bring you those numbers when we get them. >> josh, thank you josh lipton in san francisco the stock is in after-hours session lows down 4% >> maga, that's one of them, right, dan operation margins came in fine, slight miss on revenue and they're getting punished because people look at evaluation and say maybe it's gotten ahead of itself i think the quarter is fine. my sense is you probably buy in weakness >> this is breaking a pattern of substantial beats for this company. for what it's worth, again, flat is not good enough for this company. that's exactly why the stock is performing the way it is. >> it's azure. >> as guy just said, it got way ahead of itself. it was a favorite for such a long time. at this point you take profits, it's not lining up with tail winds. >> down more than 4% right now let's get a quick check on te a tesla, which is lower in the
after-hours session. not by much when you compare to how it's done in the past. it's down 1.75%. elon musk is speaking right now and we'll tell you what he just said about china right after this ll? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. your but as you get older,hing. it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.
here's what elon musk said a few minutes ago about their plan for production in china. >> those factories are going to go up like lightning so we do feel quite confident at this point, at least for the factories that are in our control, that we can achieve our production in shanghai by the end of the year. and that should allow us to get to the 10,000 vehicles or very close to it. >> let's do the math there they are projecting that if they can get to 10,000 per week globally between fremont and china, perhaps by the end of the year or q2 of 2020, melissa, they're saying that they will have an annualized production for the model 3 of a half million vehicles a year. we know how people feel about elon's projections but that's what he said just a few minutes ago on the conference call. >> i understand, phil, that he also slipped in talk of a pickup truck maybe sometime this
summer >> yep sometime this summer they will unveil it. he said it will be quite unique, unlike anything we've seen before let's see if they go forward with that unveil of the pickup truck. really we haven't even seen the model y. so we've got a lot of people who are excited about the pickup truck. but the model y is going to be the next priority after they continue expanding model 3. >> right phil, thank you. phil lebeau in chicago let's quick low check in with gene munster gene, what's your grade for tesla? >> i'm in the middle of the asking a question on a call here but the simple takeaway is very optimistic i think investors have a tough time believing his optimism. if you take it at face value about their demand equation, pickups come in the summer and the unveil and profitably i think that it's room for optimism for the next year and two years. >> we'll let you get back to the call, gene, sorry to interrupt. >> back of the line now. >> i know.
>> terrible. >> this call is a really important call all right. he's still talking that's good news so what do you think, guy? >> i think 300 or 302, i think you're smack in the middle of a very established range the last two and a half years this level you're flipping a coin i'd rather wait for the pullback somewhere between 260 and 280 to buy it than to flip a coin here. >> you know, it's interesting because we were talking about positioning. sentiment on this stock has really changed not too long ago if tesla came out and said we're going to reach 500,000 in terms of annual production and we're going to have a new voc, piehicle, picku the summer, it would have ripped. >> gene said he thinks the market has it wrong. i think the market usually knows everything, theying aga ing agg everything it's usually what we don't see coming that the market has processed. >> this is back-to-back profitable quarters for this company. that's not lost on me. why we listen to anything this guy says, frankly i think it's a
joke. >> yeah, and he told us how it's going to be hard to continue that level of profitability. i don't know why they're not more conservative with their out look they do themselves a great disserve. meantime, it is time for the final trade. tim, what do you say >> eww look, emerging markets are at the 200-day, mexico has underperformed check out mexico as a trade. >> steve grasso. >> so ge is above $9 i'm still long the stock so we've had the analyst, steve tusa, has been all over this thing. he's been right thus far he got negative this week once again. i think once this stock breaks above $10, the personality change is complete, so stay long ge. >> paypal is down a few percent. the expectations were high get this in the mid-80s and that's where you want to buy it. >> it's a tough game out there, isn't it you zig when you zag, it's very difficult. you would this thing at the
white pourboard. >> srpt had a big day. i think that stock will break out to the upside. >> that does it for us thanks for watching. see you back here moow atorrt 5 clongz for mor ♪ my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer patience is a virtue when our clear eyed fed chief powell doubled