it's a cheese sandwich. >> well, we want to keep our eyes on the markets as well. the dow not doing too much it's up just 42 points s&p and nasdaq just about at the flat line. we'll see what happens with the major indices and stocks as the day continues. that'll do it for "squawk alley. we'll send it over to judge and the half >> thanks. i'm scott wapner the final week of the month. it is 12:00 noon, this is t"the halftime report. tech run the sector up 10% this month apple is up 14%. but there are other names that don't get a lot of attention analog devices, up 18% xerox soaring 15%. says joe terranova about key, sight, it's up 14.5% plus the dow closes in on record territory. what is the prognosis for this

new bull run as we get ready for the second half of 2019? "the halftime report" with scott wapner begins right now. >> welcome good to have you with us this monday joe terranova, scott brown, sarat, shannon here. dow closing in on a new record again. new pace for its best month since october of 2015. it's been a great month. we're going to roll into the second half with pretty good momentum what's going to decide whether we can keep it or not? >> well, i think the prevailing trends will remain intact. take a look at microsoft and walmart. these stocks continue to roll up anyone that's been betting against them have been out for a long time. a lot of people are coming to those stories new. it's shocking how big those market caps are for the respective sectors but you till have people coming to these sectors saying i missed

a lot but i still feel there's upside i think that continues the two best looking sectors believe it or not right now away from tech continue to be consumer staples xlp. and again, you tiutilities. i want to talk about something important. the story is bigger than just what the s&p is doing. the global dow is -- and the msci, whatever you choose to look at as your barometer, both of them have spent the majority of the time since the end of 2017 consolidating 20% pullback in 2018 for global stocks xus now they're back at that high and challenging. we could have a nine-year base broken for the all country world index. this is every market around the world. tens of driver's license in market cap if and when that happens, with gold at a six-year high with

what bonds are doing, a lot of narratives are going to have to change and people are going to have to come around to something that's way bigger than a u.s. stock market rally >> josh said away from tech. those are the words he used. i'm going to zero in on tech up almost 10% in june. less than 0.5% away from an intraday high. best month since october in '15. you've got a lot of stocks in that space or have out-performed and haven't gotten a lot of love the faangs month to date have done well. hardware stocks have done well semis have done well a lot of that has been more recently >> so the fang names are still below their 2018 highs but this is about technology overall. and it's about growth. $3.4 billion in the etf related to growth. that's the biggest jump in june since 2013 it's indicative in the environment that you're in right now where the market wants growth the growth to value premium

right now the widest it's been in two decades when you look at the s&p 500 and you take the pe multiples, you're seeing right now the dispersion being the widest that it's been in seven years so the big decision, scott -- look this week you had a quadruple witching on friday this is going to be a throwaway week you're going to be planning towards the second year. in that plan, do you want to take what josh is talking about which is the rate-sensitive defensives and rotate out of them into the cyclicals? that's the big question. >> okay. we had mentioned these new sanctions that the presidentis announcing on iran we want to go through right now. >> i'll be signing an executive order imposing hard hitting sanctions on the preem leader of iran and the office of the supreme leader of iran and many others today's action follows a series of aggressive behaviors by the iranian regime in recent weeks including shooting down of u.s. drones shot down the drone, i guess

everyone saw that one. and done many other things you saw the tankers. and we know of other things which were done that were not good and not appropriate the supreme leader of iran is one who ultimately is responsible for the conduct of the regime he's respected within his country. his office overseas, the most brutal instruments including the islamic revolutionary guard core sanctions imposed through the executive order that i'm about to sign will deny the supreme leader and the supreme leader's office and those closely affiliated with him and the office access to key financial resources and support. the assets of ayatollah kameni will not be the out of the sanctions. we will don't increase pressure

on tehran until the regime abandons its aspirations in the pursuit of nuclear weapons development and ballistic missiles fueling of foreign conflicts and belligerent acts against the united states and its allies the agreement that was signed was a disaster it was not doing what it was supposed to do many bad things and other things were taking place. it was so short-term that within a number of years, they would be able to make nuclear weapons and that's unacceptable. never can iran have a nuclear weapon also included in this as we want the stoppage immediately of their sponsoring of terrorism. they sponsor terrorism at a level that nobody's ever seen

before and that's been over the last number of years. and they've taken all of that money that was given to them by the past administration and much of it was given out to terrorist organizations. i asked when john kerry was asked about whether or not this money will be spent for terror, he actually said yes or at least he was referring to son-in-law of it. he said yes, it will be used for terror which if you can believe that, we're giving them money saying yes it could be used for terror. that was not a good answer we are a peace loving nation we do not seek conflict with iran or any other country. i look forward to the day when sanctions can be lifted and iran can be a peaceful, prosperous, productive nation. that can go quickly. it could be tomorrow or also years from now so i look forward to discussing whatever i have to discuss with anybody that wants to speak. in the meantime, who knows

what's going to happen we cannot ever let iran have nuclear weapon and secondly and importantly, we don't want money going out to sponsor terror they are the number one sponsor of terror anywhere in the world. so i'll sign this order right now and i want to thank our military i want to thank all of the people that have been working with me over the last number of months on this i think a lot of restraint has been shown by us a lot of restraint that doesn't mean we're going to show it in the future. but i felt that we want to give this a chance, give it a good chance because i think iran potentially has a phenomenal future. just -- and i say that about north korea too. i've said it about north korea i think north korea has a phenomenal future. and i think iran also has a phenomenal future. and i think a lot of people

would like to see them get to work on that great future. so i'll sign this now. and i appreciate you all being here thank you. okay thank you very much, everybody >> mr. president, is your goal to -- >> we would love to be able to negotiate a deal if they don't want to, that's fine too

but we would love to be able too. frankly, they might as well do it soon. but obviously the people of iran and great people, i know many of them i lived in new york. haven't been there very much the last two and a half years, but i know many iranians living in new york and they're fantastic people i have many friends that are iranian. it's just -- it's very sad what's happening to that country. the deal shouldn't have been done it wasn't ratified by congress it wasn't properly done, as you know, as a treater it wasn't properly done. incorrectly done but we'll get it properly done so we'll see what happens. i hope it's going to be for the good but the people in iran are great people and all of the people i know so many in new york, these are great people okay anything else? >> just to be clear is this the u.s. response to the iranian shooting down the drone? >> this -- you could probably add that into it

but basically this is something that was going to happen anyway. [ inaudible question ] i won't say what i'll do, but i don't think they should do it. >> what is your message for the supreme leader do you want to meet with him one-on-one >> my only message is he has the potential to be a great country and quickly. i think they should do that rather than going along this very introductive path destructive for everybody. destructive for everybody. we can't let them have a nuclear weapon he says he doesn't want nuclear weapons. it's a great thing to say. but a lot of things have been said over the years and it turns out to be not so but he said very open lly and plainly he does not want to have nuclear weapons. so if that's the case, we can do something very quickly thank you very much, everybody.

>> thanks. thank you. >> he sent me birthday wishes. it was friendly both ways. we have a good relationship. >> right this way. thank you. >> thank you, everybody. >> okay. that's the president there in the oval office as you saw announcing those new sanctions on iran for what the president calls their belligerent acts whether that was shooting down the unmanned u.s. drone last week or the attacks on oil tankers recently in the gulf of oman the president saying he'd love to be able to negotiate a deal but that he will keep the pressure on. u.s. does not seek a conflict and that the president says i look forward to the day sanctions can be lifted. kayla tausche is at our bureau in washington, d.c that doesn't appear to be any time soon, kayla >> no, scott the president calling this a direct and proportionate response to the events of the last two weeks but also saying he was going to put the sanctions on the iran supreme leader with the stroke of a pen,

they're denying the access of the financial resources for him and those in his inner circle. so we will see exactly when these will take effect and what the response will be we saw the treasury secretary standing there next to the president there in the oval office we expect to get some comments from secretary mnuchin with more detail about the sanctions momentarily from the white house, scott >> kayla, thanks so much for that report. so as we bring it back to the table here, steve, you've got geopolitical concerns that could throw off the momentum that we -- that i say we carry into the second half. then this week you have the g20 and the suspected meeting between the presidents trump and xi >> yeah. at this point, we've got some earnings coming up before the g20. i'm not sure they matter all that much. all eyes and all attention will be justifiably focused on the g20. i'm probably staying in position i think that the lack of

heightened, you know, dialogue coming out of the white house is a positive showing they want to. he's being kept under control because of increasing -- tightening the noose, so to speak. the economy, we all know it's weakening. but we have got a global synchronized syncing out there it's tough to buy bonds given where yields are >> buying bonds, gold, stocks. >> they're scared. >> what's the message in all of this >> the first message is that they've got to buy other assets. so much sovereign debt below zero in erm thes of interest rates, that you've got to go to the u.s. if you want to buy t debt, right? the other message is that people are worried.

and i think you go into into the equities we see weakness already. and we see in terms of materials never really caught a bid despite what's going on. sure it's moved up, but is it where it should be >> we've got a great global hideout. we're not necessarily feeling twoept play so much offense. this feeling defensive whether it's utilities or staples like we talked about the last few weeks even though tech and materials have done quite well you have the gold run. the highest since august of '13. you've got bitcoin past $11,000 over the weekend >> i agree people are k lolooki for organic growth and a place to hide. right now that feels safe. i think as we start to approach the 3,000 mark again, we've tried to get there a couple of

times. and i think if you look at what's happening, we need a lot of tail winds to keep this thing going. we need the fed to act economic data to get a little bit better we need the us to stay where it is and we also need improvement in china and europe i don't know how safe a hideout is going to be we've been here before and don't know how to do it. i don't think the environment's as supportive as it has been the last couple of times >> why do we need the fed to act? because the market is baking it in or because there's a genuine use for another 25 basis points added onto the pile with $13 trillion worth of sovereign securities yielding a negative number what's the reason? >> because of the market >> financial conditions have never been easier. it's pure market psychology. >> i agree >> part is technical do you really want an inverted yield curve that has technical factors then you get all the algos selling off too. we don't need it. >> all right let me ask your opinion on this. that's chicken or egg?

does the yield curve invert because the economy dictates it or does the economy roll over because the yield curve inverted i don't believe the latter >> the latter i don't believe either >> i don't think we can get past 3,000 unless the yield curve starts to steepen. i think that's another requirement. >> the only reason i'm staying long is for g20. i'm not staying long because i think equities earned or valued at 17 , 18 times would have continue to slow we're going to have negative earnings now with the revisions. i'm purely for that one event? i don't believe that if we get a deal with china, that's really going to do anything to drive the global economy so i'd rather be that event. that's a dangerous play. the impact will be much greater. >> we've been asking since january, can the market rally without a deal with china.

the answer is that still a side show, unfortunately. maybe they meet face-to-face and on friday they say, okay, we're going to leave the billions worth of goods with tariffs on it but won't add the next because we're negotiating. >> yes >> let me ask you why the market has rally ied in lieu of a deal with china >> because the fed -- the effects have not derailed earnings growth for the s&p 500 yet. still to be determined hasn't happened. >> and the market believes that the fed is going to -- there's still the fed put. and that may be the biggest phenomenon since the beginning of the year, since the december low. >> hasn't cut rates. >> he hasn't had to because he's done it with his mouth. >> effectively what he has done so far if the month of june alone is walked the value of the u.s. dollar down nearly 2% which

on a competitive global basis is incredibly important and acts as a tail wind. doesn't mean there's a correlation longer term on where the dollar's going from a perception standpoint, he's been successful >> doesn't it feel like even though they haven't cut rates, they have? >> they did. >> that's why you see the barbell approach the reason you've got it going, if growth comes back and earnings aren't as bad, we'll do well there >> look at why utilities are doing well and reits are doing well we went through this a few years ago. what are you going to do if you can't buy bonds. at higher multiples in the market >> i agree with that you raise a very important point which is the communication being good enough for the market but then for now but that's by design they understand the impact of their words on the market. it's more important to point out in draghi's speech, he was able

to simply say whatever it takes and take no action whatsoever on omt. but you had yields basically get crushed all the way back down as though they had. it had the same impact as qe which actually was enacted they didn't even enact omt just the fact of saying they were able to do it did the trick. i agree with you i think that is a lot of what's taking place so far. >> that's why theytalk instead of just coming out and doing what they're going to do >> at some point, now the market truly expects action talk's not going to be enough. powell comes out in july and says, you know, well, we're still looking at it. things seem fine market eers not going to be satisfied. >> i still think it's 50/50 they cut. if we get some real movement with the china deal, that that probability they don't cut goes to 75% it's not going to have any impact on the economy

whatsoever >> you're sort of the richard fisher perspective he told us last week. it's that the cost of kalal, it's not like it's prohibited. so what is cutting rates going to do at this point? spur more business investment all of a sudden? >> what it's going to do, it's going to reduce the dry powder that the fed has in case we go into recession >> and it's going to cause the stocks to go up. >> it's part of the reason they're going up already >> it's also a defense mechanism against the yield curve. the belief is that whether it's successful or not, they can steepen the yield curve. it goes back to my comments. what do you want to do going into july right now? stay with rate sensitive defensives you're doing that if you believe there's not going to be any options. >> you don't want to get negative going into july >> do you want to go into the cyclicals because you believe this is going to strengthen, rest of the world is going to yield?

>> i want to go back to tech for a second you've said growth you want to be -- people want to be in growth you've advised people not to be in faang over certain areas of tech >> i'll accept that for the purpose of the conversation. >> just to be as simple as we can for the sake of the conversation >> okay. yes. you've said stay away from the high beta stuff. same page? >> agreed. >> faang's done fine but tech's gone great. why so selective in tech >> because my concern is that the market has the defensive mind-set i am not yet confident to return to the fangs where i had in the past i will do that if i see the yield curve steepen. i will do that if the trade squabble is going to be pushed to the side. i will do that if i begin to see

economic numbers out of europe and the emerging markets look better i'm going to be wrong. >> you're getting a heavier and heavier lift it's not just one or two things. you need three, four, five things >> josh began this show by pointing out the stat. we are right now at an interesting point in the market where the market can break out here and get incredibly offensive. and that's probably a point where it goes parabolic. how long that lasts, nobody understands that but you're in a point here where the market has the opportunity to really break out from a defensive mind-set and play hyper offense. that environment, i'm wrong. then you want to go towards cyclicals. >> then i think of that euphoria you toss around. deal with china and a rate cut -- >> how long does it last though? >> what's the negive to the stock market >> the negative -- >> a blowoff can last far long time it can >> we'll actually have to see if we get earnings trajectory

i think that's going to come down and people are going to say, it's not going to be -- >> yeah. and you don't have to know what the negative is in advance it'll be something that we're not making graphics about. look we went into september making all-time record highs in the s&p. so what happened last week, we revisited those levels slightly got above but there was no specific event that took place in september we were in a 20% correction within seven weeks and there wasn't a huge shift in the economy. there wasn't a big break in the china story or whatever we were worried about on those days. so anything can still happen and that's why i don't see this as euphoria. i really do believe that people are still with one eye glancing at some of the things that can come and hurt us >> i agree with you. i don't see it as that either yet. you could enter into that -- >> if you're at 3200 in the s&p

heading into christmas, i'll toss around the "e" word but i don't really seeit i talk to hundreds of people every week and all walks of life. investors, traders, and nobody -- i can't think of one person that's like let's kill it this year. people are not acting that way which is crazy they're not >> euphoria is like that event that black swan event. you just don't see it coming >> i agree >> so i don't think anybody -- if anything, i think the dialogue -- no, it's very balanced >> because of the last quarter >> right people -- we've talked about it the last couple years, the most hated rally. i buy it now everybody is really worried. and they're worried about certain events primarily china. i keep saying it if you put china to the side, you could potentially have a blowoff rally. >> yeah. >> but what's going to keep you in check with china and the fed together is you've got earnings, viewpoints out

you'll be in the heart of earnings before you get out. and number two, you don't know what's going to happen with the administration that keens you in check as well. >> which is -- this is a great time to bring in mike santoli at the stock exchange looking at what the quote, unquote win probability is for the second half of the year michael, everything that we've discussed goes into that stew before you serve it up >> it does, scott. i mean, i think honestly if you just look at the numbers in terms of where we have come to, right? the market up 17%-plus almost halfway through the year. tends to mean the back half does well if you look at the other years that have similar return profiles, you have done somewhat better than average in the second half. especially when the rally has been broad enough on the basic advanced decline i think again, the win probability is relatively high you'd say you side with the bulls. i'm a little confused why we're

talking about euphoria though. i think one of the features now is we're burning off this very full tank of pessimism that build up in the last couple of months i think it still remains there all else being equal again that's net positive. also, the market right now is up 3% in the last 17 months that's not when euphoria develops we've been in a long trading range. we maybe are going to sneak out of it. none of these new high phases have lasted more than a few weeks in the last 17 months. so i still think it's kind of a wait and see and to be honest, i don't think we're about to escape maybe not for the duration of this cycle for how long it is, that question when is the cycle going to end i think the psychology is now engrained. and it starts to seem like things are okay again. i still don't think we're beyond that to me january 2018 was the sentiment momentum and nirvana peek of this cycle

>> it's josh for people who don't want to buy an asset at its all-time high and i'm not saying that's the way people should look at markets, but just hypothetically, isn't it great they can now look at the move tlt just made this year to the upside which is explosive? emerging markets now up i think 9% some individual country markets with an em of 30%-plus there are other choices -- gold above $1400 for the first time since september 2013 there are other choices for an investor and you don't look like a complete idiot for being diversified this time around also i feel those are bullish factors. maybe not bullish for the spx, but just bullish for the investor mind-set. where do you stand on that >> i think it's bullish on the sense it represents dry powder out there. and things that have not participated and so in the ebb and flow of how markets operate, yes, you can see some catch-up moves and

maybe you're going to get a rotation in psychology as well as dollars into those areas. that all does make sense to me again, you know, we kind of got here to this level of the broad market with mostly defensive and quality sectors. so you have secular growth and bond yield proxies that's also something that matches up with the 2016 environment the last time we were in one of the sideways trading ranges i don't know if you're going to get something that comes along that feels similar to the 2016 election which really flipped the switch on the whole story from deflation watch to reflation watch. and fiscal stimulus and all the rest of it who knows. something like that could come along at least in a milder form. >> michael, appreciate it. as always, that's mike santoli so let's play off of what josh was talking about. why is everybody ignoring what's hac happening elsewhere? why 99.9% of the time and almost 100% ex-josh on the desk -- >> it's called the bias u.s.

u.s. has justed things in recent years. and availability people don't know those companies. for example, the third -- there's only three human beings alive that are worth over $100 billion. two of them are u.s. tech executives the third is a guy in france who sells handbags there are stocks going up in huge magnitude in places outside the u.s. we're not familiar with those companies here and we don't get excited about them i think that's a big reason. >> so is it time given what happened last week with draghi's language to say there's a lot of risk ahead of me in the u.s. there's uncertainty here there, wherever. >> no. it looked much better than it looks now. they've lagged us?

temp terms of their policy. >> they also didn't clean up their bank situation which held them back. >> let me ask you a question let's say you're politically powerful in europe you look at the fact that you can raise sovereign money. you can sell bonds at a negative interest rate. isn't now the time for europe to get up and do massive infrastructure work? rate cuts are not going to do anything >> you've got the ecb which is a central bank but you don't have central governing. each government does what they do just one more thing on the u.s if you want to invest in tech, you have to do it in the u.s pure and simple. you don't have those offerings elsewhere. you have selective ones here and there. but generally they're commodity companies in the u.s. nearly innovators >> i'm looking at the screen right now. and you've got whether it's the

ftse 100 up 11%, france up 20% germany up 16% other european markets have done very well along with the u.s >> because when you own a global portfolio and your u.s. portion gets to a certain level, it's like any other you got to take the capital and you've got to diversify. so you go into other markets so i'm not so sure it's being driven by that also if you're a credit investor overseas as you point out, you've got negative yields you've got no yields so you're going into equities more >> i think over the last eight years or so, it's been very easy to have our investors park their money in the united states it's been easy to make the argument that u.s. multinational companies have global exposure why go outside of the united states i think joe's talking a lot on the sew about emerging markets

>> the first six months of the year, the u.s. market has blown away the european markets. right? i mention these double digit gains. they don't compare over the last six months to what's happening in the u.s the question is their make up over the next six. where they outperform us >> you believe in reversion. you are now at an 11-year high for u.s. versus international. you want to bet that goes to 12, 13, 15 years, you can make that bet. a lot of people are right now. you look at how people's portfolios are weighted. they say people like 20% above where they should be u.s. versus international. if you want to make that bet into infinity, you can just understand if the dollar continues to fall, these emerging and international markets are going to out-perform. it happens every time. >> i think we manage probably $20 billion of assets.

on the equity side right now, what we're seeing is emerging market small caps. that's where the alpha generation is coming from right now. on the debt side, you're not seeing much interest on international develops when they hear emerging markets, they think china they think trade squabble with the trump administration that is a classic mistake. what i can tell you is the interest is there and we're beginning to see more and more if it has to be a currency story, it's going to drive the flows, okay, fine. >> all right we will use that as an opportunity to take a quick break. here's what else is coming up on "the halftime report" -- time to make the dollars. >> but it is time to buy the stock? one analyst has made the call. we'll fill in the holes next pete najarian just found unusual activity in the market and partners on kensho on

what happens after the yield falls below 2% three months later, the s&p has been up 100% of the time with an average jump of 4.3% for more go to cnbc.com/kensho "the halftime report" is back in two minutes. ... but you have the power to do so much more. let's not just develop apps, let's develop apps that help save lives. let's make open source software the standard. let's create new plastics that are highly recyclable. it's going to take input from everyone. so let's do it all, together. ♪ ♪ let's expect more from technology. let's put smart to work. ♪ ♪ your daily dashboard from fidelity. a visual snapshot of your investments. key portfolio events. all in one place. because when it's decision time... you need decision tech. only from fidelity.

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good afternoon, everyone i'm tyler mathisen here is your cnbc news update at this hour. secretary of state mike pompeo departs saudi arabia for the united arab emirates this as he tries to build a coalition against iran pompeo did not discuss the mu d murder of journalist jamal khashoggi. turning to an nba great to help battle an ebola outbreak. to persuade people in the cohn congo to stop the spread of the disease. >> around the world, it should be a concern of everyone living on this planet

i think ebola is touching all of us if it doesn't touch you today, it'll touch you tomorrow >> great ball player and charitable person. gas prices have fallen in the last couple of weeks maybe you noticed it it says regular unleaded fell by 11 cents to $2.73 a gallon on average. that is 22 cents lower than it was this time last year. that's the cnbc news update. scott, back to you >> thanks so much. dunkin' brands hit an all-time high today. got upgraded at web bush that's the highest on the street they say the u.s. sales are at an inflection point. it's our call of the day joe owns dunkin' sarat wishes he owned dunkin'. >> listen, this is a company that continues to grow organically. the ability to move out west tremendous opportunity for them. and for me, the most compelling

investment argument that you ca make from this is you're talking about a company that's less than $7 billion this is a company that fits a discretionary u.s. oriented small cap asset. and i love that all day. >> they're looking for a sustained comp inflection. stock's up 26% year to date. >> so i'm not only an investor i'm also a client. i've been pounding the table on dunkin' for years. it's a slow grower the company does not have the growth of, let's say, mcdonald's or starbucks but the other thing that people don't realize about it, it's got some really important things in common with some of the hottest stocks in the market right now it's asset light you know how many stores they own? zero stores. entire business is franchisee. it's good and bad. opposite of starbucks. the asset lite is really attractive right now that's why we're taking these up

to massive multiples people have this as part of their daily routine. and now if they actually do get it right on the marketing side, if they actually do get it right on the tech side, i think it's phenomenal if they get those two things right, you will not have seen the end of this rally. there's no reason this couldn't be a hundred dollar stock in a couple years it's not going to grow as fast as the other names it's steadier and more asset light. still a 2% yield still $200 million on the buyback program out there. and to joe's point, it's tiny. $6.7 billion cap enterprise under $10 billion always keep that in your back together with this company >> do you have a favorite doughnut >> i don't actually like the doughnuts. i like the coffee.

and if i've been drinking the night before, maybe i'll eat one of the egg sandwiches. but i'm not big on pastries. >> goodwill pow will power, rigt >> it's not that good. >> but you don't know what you eat before he walks in shake shake 24 hours yet >> not yet but we're holding out hope >> so i've got a friend who owns a bunch of franchises. franchisees love them. but the prices keep going up that's a great sign. they put off great cash on cash investments. that's what keeps them happy >> all right bob pisani is on thefloor of the new york psychology for our etf edge you like doughnuts >> i love doughnuts. that's my problem, actually. the etf today falling as morgan stanley lowers for the group saying deflationary head winds are continuing to build with oil and gas.

prices to remain lower for longer andrew, morgan stanley reduced its price targets on gas exploration companies 47%. >> yeah. that's a lot >> 40% oil but the prices keep dropping particularly for natural gas >> right and it's going to drag the etfs way down i noticed in the note they talked about natural gas inventories being at all-time highs as a problem xlp is an equal waited index and that has gapped a 6% stretch from oil traditionally a 1% spread. that was the last five days before today i think that's been dragging down the etf >> energy is only 5% of the s&p 500. what was it? 15% ten years ago? >> that's right. >> tech is 21% >> that's right. and it's even less with the russell 2000 on the flip side you see energy

go from 15% in '07 to 5% today as the note says, moving lower >> the united states is now a larger producer with saudi arabia and natural gas has been fabulous for us, fabulous for our security but it's been terrible as an investment xle, i looked at it this morning. energy etf, same level it was in 2007 we've had no improvement in prices stock prices so what do you do with this? a all the energy hedge fund guys i know are gone. is there any room. you don't see managers that are seeking alpha choosing energy as their option you have the large strategist, they have to have an allegation to energy. that's what holds these things up >> where do you go >> hold the 5% holding with itch is the s&p waiting

and rejoice in the fact it's good for the economy >> that's i think the correct answer very good. thank you very much, guys. catch up on our live percentage e etfedge.cnbc.com what to expect going into the second quarter, third quarter actually back to you. >> all right bob, thank you we've got questions coming up you're sending them in on twitter. the investment committee, we'll get to those next. cnbc.com/halftime or you can tweet us we're back in just one minute. it all started under this buttonwood tree. twenty-four people came together to sign an agreement that created the stock exchange. just the right elements coming together.

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thoughts on las vegas sands and the rest of the gaming space >> the gaming space, the valuations are actually pretty attractive we like sands. we like the position in both singapore and macau. even though there is some threat from potential changes in chinese government, regulations around macau we think it's still a good stock to own here. >> all right sarat from dave in pennsylvania. blacktone group. bx >> i like blackstone group been buying it all year. now they're going to become a c-corp you're getting about a 5% yield on one of the greatest asset managers >> josh, for you from wisconsin. is twitter a buy on the current pull back? >> i would be buying it right here twitter gap down last july famously it's been in that same trading range about 11-point trading range for almost a full 12 months however, on a longer term chart, go back to when that became public, there could be the makings of a handle which would

say it's bullish you might not believe in that stuff. so believe in this the amount of money that's about to be spent on political campaigns in the next year or so is going to be enormous-record breaking and facebook is not the only game in town i think that will finally be the thing that pushes the stock into the winner circle. so i want to be long this name for many reasons that being the most prominent. >> shannon, back to you. you sold oracle. did you use the proceeds from that for lbs >> we did. ve looked at -- to the point we were having earlier, we were looking at technology overnight. and got to the point where we looked at our names and thought oracle would continue to trade in the current range we feld sands was a little bit more of a tactical opportunity so we added it here. >> all right good stuff coming up, pete najarian joins us next. he's looking at a tech stock and a metal that's gaining ground. but first kelly evans has a look at what's coming up on "the

exchange." >> i do. will the sanctions bring iran to the table? we'll find out plus senator bernie sanders w t wants to cancel $1.6 trillion in student loan debt. and if you think airline seats are uncomfortable now, you're not going to like this this is a bicycle type seat to push capittoacy the limit "the halftime report" is back after this many people living with diabetes

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the most personal technology, is technology with the power to change your life. life. to the fullest. good to have you back. i want to highlight carl quintanila's coverage. >> welcome to a giant textile manufacturing company in vietnam where supply chains are moving out of china into countries like this one all day tomorrow on cnbc, we'll take a look at the changing face of global manufacturing.

>> we look forward to that this special coverage from carl made in vietnam that begins tomorrow right here on cnbc. want to highlight some of the earnings this week, as well. it's a good time because i think we'll see some nike logos tomorrow with carl in vietnam and they report on thursday. size it up for me. who wants it >> it is going to be interesting. we had potential extortion and the shoe issue with zion interesting quarter and this stock has fallen from the last time it reported in march when it was about $90 i still think it is going to be okay i think the street is looking for 66 cents and 10 buil$10 biln revenue. toughest comps since 2017 but the athleisure trend overall remains strong and i believe nike has the ability to power through any. >> i think management ability to execute and i think if you're

inest thei interested to look at brands globally, i think nike will still be in that group >> gold. we said it trading at its highest level of 2013 and bullish options traders continue pete najarian has the latest pete, you had this the last couple times over the last couple weeks >> unusual activity in jld it started the last trading day of may when the stock was still trading or the etf trading around 120 at the time and they just continue to buy and continue to roll and we continue to do the same thing i just got out of my august calls today because of what i'm seeing in the unusual activity that is hitting this morning they bought 10,000 of the september 135 calls. now, the gld was trading about 132.60 at the time and these calls cost about $3 and very large dollar amount trade that they're coming in with and they're spreading it off i am doing the exact same thing.

i'm rolling out from august to here and going to the september calls and now a spread on there where i could actually have a little bit of comfort because of the fact that those are $3 calls. they're so right that i'll continue to follow that. matter of fact, it has not just been gold. that is absolutely exploded to the upside, scott. up $2 on the stock those options are already up four times to five times what they were trading with at the time precious metals and that has been hitting time and time again. i have another one for you snap snap has been very active for us, as well. they continue to come, come, come i already have july calls on and i took off some of my position last week and today this friday expiring 15 calls with snap trading just under 15, 14.70 somewhere in there what i like about this, very short term i can take a shot. these are only trading for 40 cents. about 7,200 of these were bought

today. a pretty aggressive in terms of size 40 cents gives you a risk/reward level i like a lot if we get a break through through 15, i heard josh talking about twitter. snap has found a little bit, i don't know, their footing. it seems like they have been on a nice move from the upside from 10 to 15 can they break out they're at 52-week highs today >> we never talk about it either >> i like that trade if you look at where the risk is down to, i think it's 12.50. you can make six points on the way back to 20 i don't think it is a big stretch. they totally shifted the way they run that company. started off making big promises and underperforming and now they make no promises or small promises and they seem to have found a way to exceed the customer never left. the 13 to 25-year-old customer never left snap. so, i like that set up i think pete is right with that trade. >> good stuff, pete, thank you you have one more. >> scott, i have one more i'm

going to follow up with. dropbox for you. that hit, again, back on june 6th. that is up $3. i took that position off today they are buying and rolling up that was trading 22.5 and now trading 25.5 you can see why you'd want to take some of that off, as well huge move. very inexpensive option moving to the upside. want to give you a quick updade and now i'm out. >> i'll see you back here. >> it's all good >> good stuff. let's go around and do some final trades what do you have >> consulation brands. earnings friday and i think it's important where their growth is going to be. >> are you in it >> i am in it. >> is it canopy or own stock >> the canopy is how much are they expecting because everyone expects them to lose for a while. >> constellation had great last quarter and what will happen this quarter in terms of comps and can they get the beer

business to grow >> probably already moved on that >> canopy is like, i think a lot of people have come into constellation, correct me if i'm wrong, as a backdoor way to be invested in the potential but not own it deliberately. >> canopy's purchase of acreage, as well. >> it's a u.s. stock, where canopy is not. >> some funds you can't own. they just don't want to be seen owning it. >> you have two pieces of that the total value is greater than the total value that it's trading at if they can get their business going, the option for canopy down the road. >> alibaba. nice bounce off the bottom and no where near where it should be and let's admit it it's a barometer for growth in china. >> 40 bucks off its high and down 4%. >> yeah. i think the low is around 150 or so up marginally. >> 52-week low is 129.

>> i missed that, unfortunately. i miss a lot i have to admit. the ones i get, scott. i should miss those. >> shannon you're on a roll >> we should have bought constellation the other day on the mexico fears my trade of the day accenture. great way to play at a decent valuation. >> josh brown, you have 25 seconds. >> just mention dunkin, again, i think they'll roll this one to triple digits. >> that's it you left money on the table. >> all right, joe. >> how about the fact that crude oil is up 70% and gold is up 8%. i agree with what pete and john is highlighting. the spot market is trading at nearly a six-year high very impressive. it has nothing to do with

fundamentals >> momentum in bitcoin and momentum in, well, you say in gold and momentum in bonds momentum in stocks it's a beautiful thing >> people don't want to be correlated as part of the reason correlate assets >> good stuff. thanks, all. thanks for watching. "the exchange" with kelly evans begins right now >> thank you, scott. hi, everybody. here is what is ahead for today. the major indexes are having their best june in decades but it is built on these crazy low interest rates bernie sanders would forgive the entire $1.6 trillion of student death and pay for it by taxing stocks and bonds does his plan have any chance? we'll find out bitcoin comeback delivery backlash and the airplane seat that is being called a saddle. that's all ahead in rapid fire we begin with the markets and