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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 2, 2019 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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is powell going to come with interest rate cuts is trump going to make a trade deal if things get so bad in the market and economy here we go again we have been debating it all year things took a turn for the worse on both fronts this week. >> absolutely. >> that will be the question ultimately because both have been big drivers of the market going higher, 20% in 2019. >> we are out of time here thanks for watching. that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money" i'm scott wapner in tonight for melissa lee. our traders on the desk are tim seymour, brian kelly, dan nathan and steve grasso wall street wrapping up one wild week the nasdaq, the s&p handing in their worst weeks of the year while the dow just dodged that mark, but it has certainly been a roller coaster ride for your money after president trump turned up the volume on the trade war with china now that some steam has been let out of the record run, is now a good time to get in or, timmy, should you just get out? >> welcome you could call me orville if you
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want that's fine. welcome back. >> orville redenbacher bottom line, 350 bits at the lows today which are pulled back through the s&p. you traded through the 50, did things you are supposed to do, closed on a better level i will let the technical guys talk about the market levels a payroll number this morning showed a trend weaker in payroll. you had pmi all week to sell you the global manufacturing environment is in shambles you have a dynamic where i think corporate ceos -- if we had the trade rhetoric three weeks ago before we got into earnings season guidance i think would have been a lot different. we haven't pulled back as far as i'm concerned. it doesn't mean i think we have a 10% pull back here, but i think think about this week, put it in the rearview mirror and talk about a fed that might be more in play based upon all of these factors. this is maybe what the president wished for. >> wondering what it felt like, this was going to be a pretty good market week, at least what
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the expectations of the market was for the fed. has now turned into a correction market, and now we have the prospects of a bigger one coming. >> that's right. i think the bond market is telling that look what happened to the ten-year treasury yield. it got destroyed >> 186 i think. >> 186 or something like that. >> 185. >> the 210 spread at 13 bips or something like that. i think that is telling you -- and it really actually did a number i think the bond marked, on what the fed ras trying to express on wednesday afternoon. here we are, a situation not too dissimilar, think back to august 2015 when we had growth scares coming out of china where were yields? you know where the ten-year was? trading where it is right now. if you think about this -- >> before election. >> the dixie, the same spot. you know what? the s&p 500 is up 1,000 points from there so to me you get to a situation where we're talking about 2.5 points from the highs yesterday or 2 1/2 percentage points you say nothing, right
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but there could be some serious damage if things start to kind of snowball a little bit. >> it could be something, right? >> it could be something, got us down to the 200-day moving average which is 27.90 in s&p cash we blistered through, closed above it today but, you know, every dip has been a buyable event i get that we could be running some resistance here, but they've all been bought. so i don't know -- you know, you could look at this and we get the dead zone now where we're not going to hear from the fed, we're not going -- we are only going to hear negative trade headlines because that's what trump wants to push powell into doing. so you have some negativity in the month of august that you have to tend with. >> going into the fall, which is traditionally tough. >> which is traditionally very volatile actually august is a volatile month. remember, last time we had this we had china actually devalue their currency, if you look at what the currency is doing today it is right at the upper end of the band they said they're going to retaliate. i actually don't think it is
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over it doesn't mean we are going into a bear market or anything, but to grasso's point there's a lot of uncertainty, a lot of negativity for the first time the president has said, hey, you know what the stock market might take a hit on this and i don't care that was different. >> that's really dangerous if trump thinks he is pulling the strings here, just think back to december of 2018. >> what do you think >> what happened from 12/3 to christmas eve? the stock market sold off 16% in a straight line and there was no controlling anything we needed to see -- to kind of stop that. >> it was also powell though. >> okay. but -- >> interest rate -- >> but 12.3 after g-20 and argentina, remember that we had some beautiful trade deal and the market didn't buy it to stop the sell-off the fed had to go through a massive, massive pivot. what were fed fund futures pricing for increases? >> but it was attributed to an overstep on the tread. >> 25 bases points, an overstep and we had the most beautiful
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economy ever >> but you're not debating what it was about that was about the fed granted, there was some global growth, there was some trade there, but it was no doubt about the fed and it was about qt and about the equivalent of raising at every meeting. >> here we are again saying, okay, you have the prospects of new tariffs and then you have the fed again. you have powell again. not so -- maybe it was kind of in the he didn't go as far as some people wanted to -- >> powell -- >> -- questioning as to whn wit >> that was more to it i thought the powell news conference wasn't that bad i thought it was a buying opportunity. he disappointed wall street in that people thought he would be more dovish, but i didn't think it was a horrible press conference whatsoever. it is this trade deal, the tariffs that are the problem because you have two problems here one is uncertainty for ceos, the uncertainty will go on longer, and then you have the potential for an escalation by miscalculation they're playing this very tough
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game right now going tit for tat and that can go a big problem and to dan's point go further than you expect. >> the problem is that you get back to political dynamics going on between the fed and the white house. yesterday or wednesday's comment of this was a mid cycle adjustment, disappointing. but pretty accurate. at some point probably what was -- should have been communicated by the fed. the problem here is that going into the fed meeting i -- i would argue that the market had priced in at least 50, and it maybe even possibly 75. >> the market priced in, whether it was 50, you know, this week, the market was pricing in three cuts >> now we're left -- >> in agreement, wondering whether we get more than one. >> that's the difference how we came out of the 7% trade-off in may steve was talking about and how we took the new highs. i think that the fed could be diggf the reasons i think markets traded the way they did. >> the market wrapping up a , where are we headed from here. let's get to carter worth with some key levels to watch
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hey, carter. >> as always, anybody's guess. that's what makes the market let's do some guessing together. can you draw lines you can. there's a very well-defined, what you call an internal trend line on the s&p. this is a two-year chart and it is not random. yes, this spot literally to the penny, to the penny, to the penny. and after hitting those levels, of course, falling hard. so the real question is are we in for more? if so, how much more to be determined let's try to figure out some levels so there are the arrows that i have drawn again, i am expecting a little bit -- it doesn't have to necessarily be this big or that big, but we are only this big so far. i don't think we're going to kind of get away with just that. so presumptively more like this. where might it go? let's just figure it out a couple of ways so support is not an absolute level. it is like a mattress top, you sink into support. at some point you find support so this is a range of support,
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and were we to get to the bottom -- you see the green line here -- that would be a 5% peak to trough. we are down 4.76 peak to trough. that would be one reference point. another reference point would be, of course, the level you all were talking about, the lows of june 1st we had the may sell-off. were you to get down to exactly that low, that's around 2720 that would be a 10% decline. those have to be considered reasonable in fact, those are garden variety things that used to happen all t world is ending. >> well, still turbulent this week carter, thank you. carter worth, we will see you late on "options action" >> can you stay with the mattress metaphor, please? >> i love that >> is it temporpedic >> memory foam. >> we started out the segment. >> orville. >> the question is do you buy now or wait for it to come back a little bit i think you have to remember the stock market is made up of stocks and i think there's one
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important stock, and it is apple, the ami maga. we were talking about the may sell off on may 1st when apple reported the stock gapped up, it was 6%, 7%, gave it back then we had all of the trade volatility, downward volatility. apple stock sold off 20%, far greater than the percent in the s&p 500. this was the last maga cap stock to report. it reversed 8% from the highs. i think it is important to remember if you are thinking about where to buy a good story like apple because it had two decent quarters, can you still get an overshot to the down side greater than that of the broad market so you got to figure out -- you don't go buy that today. you wait -- >> but you stay -- to stay where carter was, you look at the macro on the bottoms, we bounce off there like a coiled spring coming off the bottom. >> there you go. >> nice job, steve. >> coming off the bottom there a lot of times you try to pick the bottoms in this, but
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everybot on every bottom has been bought recently and longer term -- >> what happens if there isn't >> well, the show is over. the whole idea is in the longer term historically the markets rally -- >> are you a buyer of stocks today? >> am i a buyer? >> yes. >> i think you are getting bargains in a lot of the semis you have to wait for further bargains you could see the 2790 low in the s&p but i think it would be overdone. >> treasuries are over bought. if you want to take a trader's view at least on short term, i do think -- i won't try to see a crystal ball on what happens this weekend on the press with the trade war, but if you look at levels, down 3 1/2% today that was over shoot. treasury yielding 24 basis points in the last day and a half is an over shoot. you teed it up earlier, scott, what was not supposed to be a good week, i'm not sure it was set up to be a good week based on how we came in -- >> it wasn't supposed to be like this it may not have been a great week. >> we didn't expect the tweet,
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but we should have expected -- >> we didn't expect the worst week of the year with a fed meeting coming that there would be a rate cut, i guarantee that. >> to timmy's point, had the ability on a sell-the-news event. it shocked everyone the next day when the market rallied. >> you didn't think we would roll off the mattress and hit the floor? >> i didn't think the mattress would have a lot of swing to it, but i think the fed was something that set us up for a difficult week. >> coming up, square plunging on a rare double downgrade, but an investor says now is the perfect time to get in paul meeks joins us with the five tech stocks he is itching to buy social security, the social media stocks holding up in sell-off should you bet on these names? we will debate that. id nhtrom times square on this frayig in new york city, and there's much more "fast money" right after this. [leaf blower]
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it is still too rich and the chart is bad. >> the problem you have here, i love square in terms of the long-term projection on what it is going to do but emerging growth is slowing and you have a lot of competition the question that investors have to ask themselves now, is the market saturated how much can they squeeze out of the base they already have how long will it take for other projects to kind of kick in? they did great selling bitcoin but it was a tiny part of their revenue it doesn't have any impact on it so as much as i like square in the long term, for here i think you have to stay wide. >> look, i think square is having an impact on small businesses and i think the total package of services including subscription services that are driver for at least 2020 revenues are things that people should get excited about in this environment, high multiple stocks aren't going to do too well. if you look at some of the pressure paypal has been under, it doesn't surprise me to see square is painted with a brush, and in fact it is a higher multiple of square i was bullish on this stock going into this to be clear, and i think it is a great company with growth ahead.
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our next guest says now could be the perfect time to get in on square veteran tech investor and portfolio manager of the wire x fund paul meeks joins us by phone. you are not put off by what you got from square? >> i'm clearly put off by what happened in the most recent quarter and, frankly, their current guidance as well i was on that conference call, participating yesterday. technically because the stock has on huge volume plunged not just below the 50-day but the 200-day, hey, this stock could go back to where it was trading as recently as the beginning of june, which is not the $64 revised price target on the sale side today but actually $60. so there's some down side risk however, over the long-term, you know, just as some of the folks on the desk have just said, i do like it and i like to buy stocks, you know, a la warren buffett, be greedy when others are fearful, and i do believe over time their growth will --
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if it doesn't necessarily reaction sell ra reacti re accelerate it will stabilize. i think it is interesting. i like the fact they're doubling down and focusing on their business which should be a catalyst in the future by selling caviar to door dash and taking that money and refocusing. >> for give me it sound to me though, even though you like it you think you can get it cheaper than where it is today, you wouldn't jump in here >> you know what i would do -- and that's an excellent question if i didn't own the stock -- and i do own it -- i would start nibbling today, yeah, at this very price because i never know when it is actually going to trough what i decided to do is keep my eye on adding to it, but i do want to, like everybody else on the desk, wait to see at least a semblance of some stabilization. >> it is interesting you have other names on your list and another one of them is a blowup and that's amd. do you step in and buy that today? >> same thing would go i would wait for stabilization
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the problem with amd -- and i am still long-term confident -- is they have three pretty powerful product cycles coming, including one that will be announced just this next wednesday. how much, in the meantime you probably don't have a real reacceleration of revenues until we get to the beginning of 2020. so that's the crux i think i feel very comfortable aboun share next year, particularly versus nvidia and intel in the meantime, when do you go in before that happens you know, obviously we have the back half of 2019. maybe the catalyst is you don't wait until january 1st of 2020, but you wait until you at least in the back half of '19 hear about some nice product design wins, which will result in revenues with some certainty, and i think the time to act and double down on that stock is maybe in the next couple of weeks, months, when we get some
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design win announcements i think they will be coming. >> paul, good to talk to you tonight. enjoy the weekend. talk to you soon. >> yes, sir. >> that's paul meeks joining us there. when you look at these names, square, i love the stock. it was a home run for me it was a grand slam. owned it as an early teenager at $12. ran it up all the way to 100 and i gave a lot back because i still believed in the story. i wound up selling it in the mid to high 70s. when i look at it, i'm out of the name when they start to change the narrative off gross payment volume and when you start to look at that declining, that to me scares me i think it has a lot of headwinds going forward. so i want to wait until it substantially stabilizes paul's been around the street for a long time now. this feels a little bubbly if we all think that the market has the propensity to sell off, these names are going to get hit the hardest. you are going to have a lot more bargains ahead of you. >> well, i mean the one thing you do need to know about the semi conductors is there's another trade war going on between korea and japan.
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it is impacting supply chain and that could actually impact all of these tech stocks and the semis towards the end of the year. >> i would just compare the two moves we had down, the trade war stocks were hurt more in the last cycle down than in the previous cycle i think you have to be more careful now. coming up, an emerging threat to your money one key part of the market is shooting off big warning flames. how can you take cover first, spreading their wings the social media stocks have been flying high we will find out what is driving the gains. i'm scott wapner live from the nasdaq market site and more "fast money" right after this. ♪ there's everything from happy to extremely happy.
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there's also angry. i'm really angry clive! actually, really angry. thank you. but what i customers into fanatics change the whole experience. alright who wants to go again? i do! i do! i have a really good feeling about this.
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we're back with "fast money" social stocks spreading their wings and taking flight despite
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all of the scrutiny from washington and consumers alike pintrest in particular having its best day ever. julia boorstin has the details from los angeles for us tonight. julia. >> reporter: scott, despite concerns that pintrest, snap and twitter were going to hit a wall, all three of those companies this quarter showing that to the contrary they have room to run, revving up growth of users and revenue pintrest shares soaring after beating expectations across the board, growing the company's overall user base 30% in the past year and even in the saturated u.s. market pintrest grew users 13% and raised guidance for the rest of the year the company is saying its investment in making it easier to shop and enabling brands to measure how they're ads are driving purchases is paying off. and it is not just pintrest. snap and twitter in their quarterly results focused on how their improvements for both users and advertisers are yielding results which have boosted all three of those stocks over the past year.
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snap with its new augmented reality tools gains an expanded content offers twitter cleaned up spam off the platform and made it easier to foll facebook's regulatory challenging. ben silverman saying he takes snap ceo focused in his earnings call snap is focused on privacy in the community while they have been dealing with regulatory challenges, it is worth noting they've grown revenue faster than expected, research saying it points to a healthy u.s. ad market back to you. >> thank you, julia very much. timmy. twitter is a name i'm long twitter is a name i think is relative performance to itself
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20% ad growth is exciting. it is the trend julia was talking about -- >> it is relative to itself. so relative to its mega cap here is google and it is facebook. >> but why would you compare it to mega cap -- >> those guys are growing at 25% a year, 127 billion expected sales from google this year and 70 billion in facebook when you look at snap, pintrest and twitter, they're combined maybe $7 billion in sales. you may look at it and say it is an amazing opportunity i look at it and say the year twitter went public in 2013 they had about 700 million in sales this year they will have 3 1/2 it is a snail's pace here and their sales growth is not accelerating. >> isn't it interesting there's a changing dynamic going on right now where you have facebook, you have google and you have amazon. they report and the stocks do nothing but go down. it is almost as if people are searching for growth and they've turned to the twitters it is a new regime of growth.
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>> i think that's fair. >> in the social media allocation space there's not a lot to do. >> right. >> i want to own a company when there's a pivot on an inflection point from some period in their business that's what i think i see in twitter. in absolute terms, you're right, those guys are crushing it. >> you do not see it in active users, that's the name point. >> you see it in mon etization that's what it was about. >> grasso, why don't you start us off with final trade. >> doing reverse here. >> i love that >> well, now you know what mine is. >> i didn't hear it? >> no surprise >> now we will play the four corner offense tbt. i think treasury yields could move lower but in the short run they're very much overbought treasury are tbt to trade them back or above or near 2%. >> despite dan's pessimistic view on twitter, i think there's a good opportunity by twitter. >> half bull half bull type of guy. a pretty happy fellow. >> stick around. "oa" we will talk about emerging
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market etf, etm and how to sell it right here. what do you have, grasso >> if you believe gold has room t run, gdx out performs gold. >>hat's does it for us don't go anywhere because "options action" is up next. "options action" is up next. ♪brain. better life.
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>> "options action", strategies from the street as traders
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i like to do on friday's at 5:30 p.m.? host "options action" at the nasdaq, of course. here is what is coming up on the big show ♪ president trump escalating the china trade war this week, and dan nathan says there's one group of stocks that could emerge as the big losers he'll tell us what that is plus -- traders were fleeing the fang stocks in droves this week, but the chart master says there's one name that's about to bite back he'll break it down. and later --


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