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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  August 21, 2019 3:00pm-5:00pm EDT

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minute, this is telling you they want to do more, and they'll push the fed to do more. >> not all inverted yield curves lead to recession necessarily, but it is a telltale. >> no surprise finances are at the lows of the session, so very interesting final hour thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm david faber in for wilfred frost, in front of target. they had better than expected numbers. that's a new high. we're rallying on the broader market until the close. >> let's look at what is driving the action stronger, up about 2315 a the dow fed minutes just out emphasizing a recalibration. markets moving on that we just lost about 90 points in the last few minutes we're on the verge of an inverted yield curve again
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we will dig in and follow every move the cbo out today saying the deficit will increase more than earl remember forecast as david said, retail strengths, lowe's up t. target up, more signs of spending from the consumer charlie, welcome this is your kind of rally day any great reason behind it >> the american economy continuing to be 70% consumer form the consumer is in very good shape he walmart had seals up almost 3%, target, home depot showing strong results it's very hard to have a recession with dropping unemployment, rising wages and strong consumer spending, and yet some of the members of the fed want to cut 50 basis appoints, double what they did. >> i don't think they'll succeed. i think there's just as many
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that don't want a cut at all we need to keep bullets in the gun, this is not the time to be cutting rates in the middle of a strong economy frankly i think the president's tweets actually decrease the chance of a cut. nobody on the fed wants to look like they're bowing to his whim. >> lots to dig into today. ylan mui is on the fed eamon javers on the president's recent comments, and bob pisani looks at the other big rally ylan, let's start with you. >> the fed shows three broad reasons, one the slowdown in complicate growth. second, prudent risk mpgt and inflation is still below the fed's 2% target. a couple officials wanted an even they also wanted to
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maintain optionality in deciding when and whether to cut rates again. y t . >> ylan, thank you eamon? >> reporter: yesterday one tone on taxes today an entirely different tone i think i have an answer to that question what i'm told is before the president came out to talk to reporters, staffers briefed him on just how much traction he comments had gotten on taxes yesterday and the speculation that set off the president didn't want that to get out of control. he said i'm going to put a stop to that and went on the deliberately in order to shut down the speculation that he's about to do some major income or
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tax effort of any kind really. so that's why he said this, indexes capital gains just a short time ago >> i'm not looking to do indexes. i think it would be perceived as somewhat elitist i want taxes for the middle class, the workers, the people who work so hard. >> reporter: so the president says on indexing, he doesn't want to do that for elite. the president came out to delivered, and he did it. >> eamon, thank you. >> sounds like for political reasons. some said he wasn't, and now he
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said he isn't. >> the democrats are running on the idea he's helping the rich we also got a pretty dire read on our fiscal prediction. >> they're not buying everywhere walmart and target beat analyst expectations across the board, increased annual guidance, even despite tariff headwinds both have invested billions do offer shoppers more choices lowe's and home depot, they're also improving store and website integrate.
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macy's had a wide misstep, so it had to deeply discount to sell it tapestry's kate spade division much worse than expected >> and general remains pewed tapestry shares have sold off fairly sharply in the last week. >> thank you, courtney >> we're not quite moving in lock step, a come the dow movers here, again for the second day in a roa road. johnson and johnson, i'm not sure if this is the start of a trend yet. i think banks are much more interesting. yields have been all over the place, at the 2/10 spread
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flattens, maybe invertebrae in some cases. industrials stiff off their highing. wire trying to get over about 29 2940. >> we're only 3% away from that number guys, back to you. >> bob, heart to believing the dow, as bob mentioned, is off the highs of is the session, with about 53 minutes until the closing bell a pretty nice rally going on we're also on yield loss again for about the second time in a week, this is a technical recession indicator.
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>> we saw it briefly we didn't see it close there last time, but we're watching a spread the fed didn't indicate that it's on the brinken an aggressive easing cycle. and maybe the market is pushing for more with this sort of lower yields >> though we know there are two members at least who believe that rates should not go any lower. what's your big takeaway from the fed minutes >> the fed takeaway is that it was july 31st before the august 1st announcement, and i think that the impulse not to raise and to way and see will flip over to the other side
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we actually see another rate cut in september, precisely because of the uncertainty that's caused by the tariffs we don't see that going away anytime soon so you're positive, how do you explain the yield curve? >> i don't think that the bond market is all-seeing, has the ability to predict recessions that nobody else has we were hearing this in the fourth quarter i was hearing a lot about yield curving in the fourth quarter and we're up 17% from there. i don't lose a lot of absolute i think frankly long-term yields are way too low. so the long end of the curve needs to go up. >> so alicia, is it different this time in terms of how we should view an inverted yield curve, though it maybe take place again? >> it's really a great question, in a sense the inversion is due to technical reasons
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the global bond market we're up to $16 trillion, and where else are you going to go except for the u.s. market we have all these flowing pushing down yields. nevertheless, the question remains, even if it's a technical signal, does the fed have to react anyway, means does the inversion itself signal that t the. >> you don't agree with that at all? >> no. i apologize, that's the general consensus, i agree we're staring at trillion dollar deficits we are staring at lots of things that should going to produce inflation. we are getting higher wages, tight labor markets, a president who is trying to talk down the dollar we have a lot of things that are potentially dangerous for inflation, and the last number, ex-food and energy was up more than 2%. i do not think this is -- >> you didn't even mention
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tariffs. >> yes, tariffs will add to prices. >> i just wanted to give you another one. >> there's a long list. >> i think they're not going up any faster to the extent they are, is there a way out if you're the ecb? >> yeah, the ecb is pushing on a string we saw the found of fiscal stimulus would be a great first step in reseriousing the they miss price assets. you have zombie -- because the
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debt simply doesn't default, so it just really doesn't help the real economy in any sense. to the extend that 90% of all yielding instruments, aren't we going to pressure on bonds >> that's why we think that -- that you should be well diversified. we could see yields going lower here >> so charlie, what is the strategy on equities >> so if we think equities are a lot better buy than bonds, we think frankly there are no good values in long-term bonds. if you're buying any bond more than a muir of three, four years, you're getting a negative return if you are afraid of the stock market, you should put your money in cash. you could even consider gold, but do not put your money -- >> rushing into 30-year german debt. >> with a zero percent yield, which didn't sell, by the way.
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that auction failed. that is a sign that people are not going to accept negative returns forever. >> if cyclical stocks you like >> they're the cheapest. right now what people are overpaying for is the safety the stocks what's cheap is everybody is aphrase of recessions, so industrials and some consumer discretionary stocks are what is a good value right now. >> have we put in the bottom in yields >> i see volt tilt in the next six weeks. we have a lot of headlines, we've got a fed meeting, we have tariffs, we have brexit and the v.a.t. tax in japan, which is affecting the economy there, and not in a positive way. so a lot of he negative headlines, pushing down our yield, so you have some volatility you saw in the stock market
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here, the inversion created the sell-off with al go ritz mick trading could excuse the stock sell-off. the question is when does that bound boo edge into the real economy. for the first time since the late '90s. >> one thingsing that interesting is yields are higher, and stocks are higher. i mean -- >> because of -- since the economy is going to be stronger. >> the yield curve could push us the other way. >> right now the stock market would like to see a strong economy. >> alisha levine, thank you for joining us charlie is with us for the hour. we have about 45 minutes left to go before the close. let's checkin on this market the ten-year trading 158 or so every sector positive, so you are continuing that relationship, consumer discretionary in the lead, thanks to results from home
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depot, lowe's, big winners today. we'll also drying into some of those drastic moves in the retail stocks, lowe's, target also just a beast today. we also have seen sharp swings in macy's walmart, and looking ahead to in order 12r078, l brands are both mall based. >> they've been on the losing end of the retail trades here's a check our on data tracker, home data came in longnger than expected "csi bell" back in a moment, the dow is up 225. (soft music)
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we are very close to another inversion of the 2/20s spread, which is classically and historically a recession indicator. we inverted last week, came back, and under a basis point almost now all right. speaking of shorting things or
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going long mike santoli as today's market dashboard. >> you can play it either way, looking to drive home the next couple hours, one-way traffic. the market if you look, the stocks have been moving in the same direction heavy moves, that's about big retailers. congestion ahead, a good-looking at the chart, maybe you'll provide some friction for this rally, and then reduced speed zone this is about a slowdown deceleration one-way trades the average number of s&p 500 stocks that are moving in the same direction on a given day. this is the 15-day average essential if you're up by over 400, it means more than 80% are either up or down on a given day. you see it spike up here in a few spots. it's when the market is trading in a very macro fashion, when it's responding to something like bond yields, something like
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currencies as opposed to individual corporate needs these are high-stress moments for the market can you go back and look, this is early 2016, so typically it's more indicative of a tape that's not really in earnings season. it's kind of a one-way trade into equities, out of equities what we have seen is this spike up today, by the way, about 380, under 400, most stocks today have been up with this rally, one way to gauge whether the market is focused on individual names or the big picture, uys. >> how do those moments at the time kale break? >> closer to lows than to highs. essential when the market has essential sold off quickly, in one of these high-fever moments, that's when you typically see this happy you see them cluster you could you bess in a period where you kept going into this
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mode >> michael, see you in just a bit. eamonafter has details on the president. >> this is on student loan debt. the president speaking to a vet rants group in kentucky, saying he signed a memorandum, and describes the memorandum this way regarding student loan dead for permanently disabled veterans the memorandum directs the department of education to eliminate any penny of student lot dead by veterans completely and permanently disabled we don't have details on how that would work and who might be the beneficiaries. the white house is telling reporters who are on the scene that it's going to the provide more facts and figures on exactly what this program is, but a new program and initiative announced by the president, which he says will eliminate every penny of federal student loan debt for those veterans who are permanently disabled, sarah. >> thank you for the update.
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until 40 minutes to go before the bell. we have 29 out of 30 dow stocks higher, walmart the only one in the red s. nike and boeing leading the charge we are on the brink are potential inverting again. it was a big deal. >> we were both on vacation. >> separately. >> yeah. pluls pressure on faang, a few states considering their own antitrust probe. we're going to talk to jeff landry about what exactly they're looking into. the white house has floated a number of tax breaks as a weigh to boost the economy, though the president just walked those back, what, in the last hour or two. we'll talk to jim nussle about what the president could do without congress's approval.
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welcome back to "closing bell." time to get the word on the seats. initiating coverage on the oil imagines, giving chevron and bp an outperform. barclays has also in additioned
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ash did she have ron tops the list, pepsico, and out with the hedge fund trend monitor note finding that hedge funds are rotating into health care amazon far and away the favorite take your pick, how about consumer discretionary, charlie? >> i didn't love their favorite, t.j. maxx, which i think is a name challenged. i do like altria our ceo is on the board of nike, so we can't talk about it, but the public numbers are already positive to people like nike the consumer is in great shape it's hard to have a recession with a very strong consumer. >> nothing concerns you about the consumers?
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>> i can't say nothing, but broadly speaking we have real wage growth. the high end is doing extremely well frankly, is the quintile is the bottom quintile from a egalitarian point of view wonderful, and frankly good for the economy. dot miss the deliver alpha conversation the biggest names in investment and finance, tickets are on sale right now. a. okay we have about 33 minute toss go before we get to the close today. all the markets, as you see, are up we have your last-chance trade before the close. and the state a.g. from louisiana joins us a group of states are looking toauhi an investigation
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into big tech. that when "closing bell" returns. i don't know what's going on.
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the trading driving action
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minutessh and the markets did move a bit on that we've been monitoring. the cbo says the deficit will increase more that previously forecast it does quantify the drag on the real economy with tariffs as well retail strength this morning and the rest of the day, lowe's up, target shares up 20%, certainly signs the consumer continuing to be strong at least when it comes to those names, not necessarily reflective broad ly after the bell we'll see how it is sue herera has a news update here's what's happening at this hour at the white house this morning, before leaving for an event in kentucky, president trump said he did not appreciate denmark's rejection of his idea to buy
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greenland. >> i looked forward to going, but i thought the prime minister's statements that was it was absurd, it was an abe suridea was nasty, i thought it was an inappropriate statement all she had to do is say, no, we wouldn't be interested. pope francis holding his weekly audience. he did not comment on the situation can cardinal george pell, though the vatican has acknowledge knowledged a court's dismissal of the appeal. the weight of a dump truck proved too much. the truck partially going through the concrete to the level below. it happened in quincy, luckily no injuries reported. >> and just missed those cars. amazing. sara, back downtown to you mike >> we have the outside moves in
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both target and lowe's stocks obviously in response to strong earnings report. they are the number two player in a very big retail category basically all investor have decided it's almost a winner take all closing the gap today in terms of forward p.e., so you see this big persistent target, while wall matt has been sort of aclimbed as the winner it's still trading around a market multiple, and look at lowe's and home depot, a little less dramatic, home depot has been assigned a premium, it's buying back a ton of stock, well above the s&p multiple here finally you do see a bit of reversion there, but still,
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still that gap suggests that the consumer has enough juice i think to go around for at least these big dominant big box players. >> mike, thank does that make you want to buy target and lowe's? >> we prefer to play the concept of the omnichannel through zebra technology, which is barcodes and scanners and readers. people need to track every sku walmart and target numbers were all about omnichannel. reports that multiple state attorneys officials are considering a investigation, adding scrutiny to tech companies, which are already being probed by the doj he is
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jeff landry, louisiana's attorney general thank you for joining us >> thank you for having me. why are you doing this >> well, about 18 months ago, many attorneys general from around the country started ringing alarm bells there were certainly practices that big tech was engaged in that were problematic. we started discussing those. in fact over a year ago all of the attorneys general met in portland, oregon, where we had some experts in the tech industry come and talk to us about some of the activity that we thought was problematic, ultimately harmful to consumers. we met with attorney general jeff sessions at the time, and trying to determine if the conduct out there is problematic to the consumer, and whether it would take action to remedy it
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for the most part, we have heard a lot of rhetoric from big tech, but no action. so we're going to continue to move down the path to make sure we protect the consumer. what does that mean? >> we've said that everything is on the table we no he as lawyers that litigation is the last option. we would prefer to -- and there's a multitude of particular problems, when it comes to pricing data, what is big tech doing with the data they're gathering from consumers? is the consumers getting a quid pro quo on that? what google is doing in the ad tech world, content suppression, the immunity from section 230 in the community indications act? there are a number of different
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issues that big tech is involved in that quite frankly i would hope we take a look at how much actually has to do with antitrust violations >> i think a majority of them do suffer months ago i attended an ftc forum, in which i testified specifically on goingling and the ad tech pipeline there's a commodities exchange now in the digital tiesing space. you all understand a commodities exchange better than anyone else the conduct that google is performing inside the exchange would literally by criminal in any other time, and walk the ftc through that at each particular step
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what is the level of cooperation a and. >> first of all, attorney general barr's team absolutely grasps the issues. it's heartwarming to see basically the group of attorneys general is a bipartisan group. everyone recognizes there is absolutely problems in the virtual marketplace by these particular players, and something needs to be done >> which company are you focused on >> it's not really a company, it's more conduct. it's basically the conduct so if the conduct that's occurring is occurring across the platforms, they all would be
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a subject to be looked at. >> these are companies with very deep resources, enormous, enormous ability to continue to fight if that's what it takes. having seen they battles in the past, they go on for years is that your expectation here? >> look, i certainly don't believe that this is going to be solved overnight if you look at the history, anytime the government has had to step in with antitrust issues, it take a long time, whether you're talking about standard oil, at&t, microsoft, all of those cases took a while. the end result at the end of the day is when the consumer has benefitedeneda when the government has stepped in and said industry has basically outside its shoes. >> does it give you any pause
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that for the most part, if you look at companies like amazon or facebook, we haven't seen any consumer backlash to these concerns it gets a lot of political play, yet people don't seem to hate these companies. >> the objective is not to have people hate these companies, but for a consumer to actually understand what's going on there has become an expectation for the consumer, when they key search for certain things, you know, when they're shopping through a virtual marketplace, what they get is either the best deal or the best price i can tell you personally because of what i know, the consumer is not getting that when you educate the consumer about that, they have problems with it. i hear from consumers all the time who say i don't understand, i say something or search for something and next thing i know
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i'm being bombarded with advertisements how is that happening? that goes into the realm of privacy and data in a collection of that data by these companies, and what are they doing with it. >> thank you for joining us, and just to confirm, you are involved in the group of attorneys general joining forces with the department of justice -- >> i certainly can't make any comment about what we're looking into or when we're going to act or any of those things, but anybody out there that doesn't know i'm involved has their head in the sands i've been ringing this bell for about 18 months now. >> we appreciate you coming on to talk about it jeff landry, attorney general for the state of louisiana thank you. this is one of the reasons you've been cautious on some of the faang stocks, and we's investors should not try to
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verify the merits of this. i can tell you the merits but the justice department made those companies' lives hell for a long time and put pressure on the stock. >> do you think there's pressure on this? >> that's why we're not buying them we think the market is underestimating the risk. >> all of them >> i happen to think amazon, facebook and google are the three, with the most political will behind the investigations here's where we stand in the market, the dow up a nice 232. s&p having a nice rally, up 0.75 bond yields are rebounding, nasdaq up 0.10 of a%.
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meg tirrell looks at what companies may be at risk. >> cardinal health has been is one of three named in thousands of lawsuits. drug manufacturers have been particularly hard hit over worries of erasing bills onof value. johnson & johnson is another name involved. we'll get a decision by the state of oklahoma on monday afternoon. that could have a major impact on stocks in this space. teva is moving, it's a big winner after positive results from a migraine treatment? how similar is this treatment to some of the other new treatments out there? >> teva has one of three classes of drugs the others are from amgen and
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eli lilly. eli lilly has been taking shares from both those companies. this study showed that the medicine helped high grain sufferers the head since are important toe market for them could stop $3 billion by 2023. there you have the "market share. back over to you. it certainly could use some good news, giving you will the overall market. >> absolutely, david if you look at the market share loss for teva alone over the last year, it's about $19 billion. ed it it's not just the fear of the opioid litigation, there are also concerns about the generic drug pricing collusion and the
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overall environment. so teva sure does need a win. >>er these drugs doing well on the market it was such a big deal in terms of how revolutionary they were for people suffering from migraines. >> the first new class in a very long time in the migraine space. people were have i excited they do seem to be doing well, bringing in money as new sources of revenue, projected to be more than a billion each potentially by 2023. they are competing on price, though because they are so similar in the markets, that creates a tough situation for these companies. >> meg, thank you. >> thank you. we have about 12 minutes or so before we end trading here is where we stand we are up on all the major averages, s&p up almost 8% up next the last-chance trade. and later find whether ken
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that are unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you're trading with e*trade, which isn't complicated. their app makes trading quick and simple so you can strike when the time is right. don't get mad, get e*trade and start trading today. . we are closely watching that yield curve, dipped into another brief inversion there. that is what some people are worried about, when the ten-year yield falls below the two-year treasury yield it's upsidedown. it has proceeded all of the post war recessions it's not always the best indicator, so there's a lot of
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debate about what it could signal, but investors pay attention to it. charlie is hiding under the desk, so scared about what it means. >> i think we should precise about this people should make a prediction. do they think there's a 50% chance in a recession in the next 12 months i would sigh less than a 20% a chance the next five years >> obviously. >> i used the word "imminent" it could also indicate that there's a demand for u.s. debt, and the market has been pushing the fed to do more we're still tracking, what, 2% gdp growth last-chance trade from charlie. >> yes, i've been emphasizing lazard, but i want to talk about goldman sachs. my grandfather taught me a rule when i was in fifth grade. he introduced me buy them at one, sell them at two.
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if you can buy a major bank at one times book value, you are basically getting the franchise for free goldman sachs is trading at less than book value. the other side is when they hit two times book you should probably hit sell. goldman is a grate franchise, should not be trading. >> great franchise undergoing fairly significant change from a purely institutionsal focus to one that includes a lot of consumer does that concern you? >> mostly high, high, high net-wort consumers it's going to been a tiny part of the business. the asset management business is growing, ipo business is pretty good goldman is still a great franchise. financials are down 6% second worst performers is behind energy. >> we like things that are for sale people have been selling goldman sachs, 11% return on equity.
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if you're earning 11% return on equity >> are they doing a good enough job sort of explaining and articulating the changes taking place and the value you see there? >> i'm going to hedge my bets there. the short answer is probably no. there's been too much emphasis they still make a lot of money as an institutional firm i think, again, the applecart has gotten way too much publicity. >> and one -- >> i think the developments there have been positive i think our estimates of what the fine will be have come down to more manageable numbers, on a $78 billion net worst, they will not have much of an impact. stay with us during the close, charlie we have less than five minutes to go. let's trade the close. right now with chris pollard, the head of market strategy at cowen, what are you watching a pretty nice rally with a yield
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curve inversion. >> the outperformance of consumer discretionary shares, particularly when you map that d what's going to occur. right now we're in above-trend growth period being driven by the consumer, so washington mutualer discretion shares are outperforming a confirming signal that in addition the relative strength woes created at the end of may held on this most recent drawdown, and the recovery to the up side is suggesting to us positive momentum trends will reengage. >> what about the growth-to-value ratio? what is that telling you >> interestingly, when you add the discretionary outperformance, it's actually taken the gross value ratio to new highs. that he reinforcing for trends that are dictating performance
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year to date so that keeps us constructive. >> thanks, chris let's send it over to mike for his third dashboard. mike >> david, a healthy bump here in the indexes to about a one-week high let's see where it fits into the broader path if you look at a one-year charlotte we're approaching what could be some significant levels that have stalled out this rally a few times this year -- this is a different chart. this is showing basically high beta versus low volatility a very similar chart showing you the risk appetite. essentially it's been in a downtrend -- sorry, guys now we're looking at the s&p here you go. that's the level, 2940-ish is where you've stalled out 2945 is also the 50-day average for the s&p 500, so that's basically been a bit of a test it's where the market topped in september, so there's nothing cosmic or determinative, but it
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might be a logical place for the market to stall out. there also looks like a good trading bottom high beta versus low volume activity stocks, it has not definitively turned yesterday, but that's a tentative one, you have to watch it, but no real verdict on that. out to rick santelli at the cme. i tell you what, if you look set intraday of two-year note yields, we are on the high yields of the session. look at ten-year, pretty much the same unless you look at a 24-hour chart. look at the 24-hour dollar index. so everybody, of course is talking about the notion yield curve, back to close to zero exactly one week ago today right now we're right around the same level, so it's a push. dick bove did a great interview
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with kelly talking about how the significance is nothing like being touted i would have to tend to agree, but we know it's the knee-jerk reaction of many investors, while they look at it and the nervousness they may feel. the nasdaq a steady eddy today right, bertha? >> it's not reacting the same way they did last week tech overall fairly strong, the usual suspects are moving higher, they're the biggest gainers, microsoft/apple up for the fourth straight day. the best winning streak sin april. meantime chips are more mixed gainers like amd, but preand both-analog devices gave mixed part partly because of huawei. just off the highs, bertha
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jpmorgan lost some team when the fed minutes came out the yield's been all over the place, but moving up toward the close. there's the close bell still can't get over that 2940 level, pretty been resistance there. strong finish there. welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen. >> i'm david faber in for wilfred frost, along with mike santoli. we've got the dow, s&p and nasdaq and russell all in positive territory the dow the best performer of all for today. >> every sector closed higher, consumer discretionary let the charge technology and discretionary did well the yield curve briefly inverting for the first time since last thursday.
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it's a technical indicator of recession. it has successfully predicted the last seven recessions, but there's all sorts of debate about what it means now, especially with the strong consumer insights from the likes of target, and the whole rally today has been about the fact that it doesn't look like we're going into recession, and then you get an indicator like this, and you wonder if it's people buying our bonds, taking out the fed cuts because of a somewhat hawk-ish fed minutes. >> and the familiar refrain has the u.s. economy is roughly 70% driven by the consumer, and the consumer remains strong. >> joining us is barry knapp, managing partner at ironside, charlie is still here, mike, as well as rick is here maybe, rick, let's start with you. what is the yield curve inversion telling you right now?
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>> i think it's telling me zero, truly. i understand we need to cover it it's important, and a certainly chunk of history shows it's relevant, but as dick bove pointed out, you go back several decades, and all of a sudden it doesn't look as intuitive or logical as to the outcome of when it occurs if it was so important that the slowing and the inversion mean so much, then why isn't europe's curve inverted i'll tell you why, because it was pretty much their policies shipped over here based on the behavior caused investors, you know, do you want to lend your money to the european union and get less back? basically minus 11 basis points, so it's a zero coupon bond that they sold at a price where you're going to get less back. what does it all mean in english? it means we are the place that capital wants to come.
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listen, we need to discuss it, but i really don't think at this point, much bigger numbers for negative ahead we all know there's a recession coming, bud we don't know when >> all right what about you do you think it's a lot of factor pressuring and contributing to this brief inversion we had last weekend and today? >> i do, but i do think it is discounting something of a recession, but it's a recession in global trade, actually. so you think about what happened with global trade this time a year ago, it was quite strong in anticipation of tariffs at the end of the year and then it hit a wallgot to april, we would gea recovery there's been no deal.
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what's threatened is this trade slow down becoming extremely o protra protracted that still doesn't mean the u.s. goes into one, but it is reflecting this giant dollar shortage and technical factors related to -- i think rick said the european curve wasn't inverted subverted or submerged same is true of japan, and china will find themselves having to stimulate through rate cuts further as well. the risks are growing for the rest of the world. and we'll get the pmis tonight if there was much of a rebound in germany, i think it would be
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a bit of a shocker. >> yet, mike, we had a pretty good day in the markets. >> so for all the draymond and maybe currencies, it's been in what right now looks like a somewhat routine pullback. >> i would say if -- try to recover some of the ground, so i don't think the story has changed very much. >> stocks most of this year have been trying to contend with a flattening out of of profit growth and deceleration of the economy.
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>> in the next let's call it 12 to 16 months but does that mean that equities are still going to be a place to be in the current mark >> what i'm sure of is nothing can ants that question what we can do is the best time to buy the worst time to buy bonds is when people are afraid. thrill still a question about what the fed should do,
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and the minutes mad it clear it's not clear. it's somewhat a conflicted committee, and versus those who say you have to take a radical action, and of course, you know, it is still a glaring theme that short-term u.s. treasurys still carry yields as high as they do when the rest of the globe is nowhere near it. >> you discussed this a moment ago where the entire thing is under wear, but specific to here, barry, you know, do you anticipate we're going to go lower?
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>> i didn't learn anything i think the two real reasons the fed reacted and will react again is trade policy and currency, which is highly political, both a different purview of the government so i think those are issues. we maid or first call to reduce risk this entire year. >> ultimately i don't think we're going in recession, and i think it's strong enough to be a buying opportunity i would be hesitant to tell people to , you know, we are in
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a bit of a risk-off events we'll have to work through the jackson hole and the september set dates. retail sales came just screaming back from the qt crash-related contraction they had deep in the holiday season that bottomed in february july was great deal, as we no, but retail sales should go back to the longer-term trend of 2 to 3% we just thought the market is a little more vulnerable to a pullback here, but again i think it's tactical and we could have the seasonal rally.
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the street had been looking for --, the street was looking for 3.93 billion the company no longer reports comparable sales however, they are getting net sales numbers. for the full price that's the regular in order strop down 6.5, and off pride net sales -- also at the guidance, the net sales guidance as well as earnings guidance for the full year despite that, shares are higher, though, by about 10% right now sara, back over to you courtney respect, thank you. charlie, you own this stock. >> we do the stock is beaten down
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the family tried to buy this company out. this stroke has been in our opinion hit way, way too hard. expectations were low. i'll admit the results were only okay, but the expectations were so low, we would expect the stock do well. >> the problem was they wanted to buy it at that 60-some price, and they couldn't get the financing for it we do hear that the family is still interested in taking this company private. there are some investments they have to take.
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you have to ask how cheap would it get for, so it is a tough story, but 25% of the stock is short so people are belting on continued decline, men's shoes, certain core parts of the store are doing fine theyknow they're going to get
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better there they're doing well in the discount part -- the full surprise is where it's more challenging. >> even a different at 5.5%, macy's the different used is 9.4% is that move of a play when you think about the mao market i thought they did well through 2013 you'll drive those stocks with bond-like characteristics, like what happened in 2003, 2004. so certainly a plausible outcome. we have tower if q.e.? >> i don't think so. >> charlie, thank you as well.
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and thank you, rick. for more on all of this, the yield curve, what the fed can and will do. very good to see you, ken. what are your thoughts. >> i think the fundamentals are still pretty good. some of your other guests have said the rest of the world is not doing so well. i think the trade war is hitting china very hard. i think they're looking at slower growth. >> i think that undermines business confident, slowing
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investment i think that's the biggest drag on the economy by far. you know, it clearly after not having a recession for on so long and given that in a typical pertain you probably have a 15, 17% chance, yay, the chances are probably somewhat elevated, but i think they're clearly below 50-50 a really steep recession would take a lot of bad moves. it could happen in this environment, for sure. long term rates have been trending down. i think the fed policy has been -- last week there was a panic.
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let's imagine i'm in your classroom, you're teaching about negative interest rates. why do they pers and great less back at the end >> well, we've had negative real interest rates for a long time i think it's a lot of similar dynamic that people will take a lower yield on a bond out of save. particularly in areas of uncertainty i think we'll see
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negative rates everywhere if these low, long-term real rates persist. this seems to be something that's worldwide when there's a recession, to the extent central banks have tools, they may reach to try to do negative rates that hasn't happened yet, so i don't see steep negative he rates. >> just the whole idea seems counter-intuitive. >> well, it's a reflection of very low inflation, so not so long ago, it was 3%, 4%, people would take 2% and 3%
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it's the same thing, the same dynamics. and it's pushing the rate negative to clear the market you think that could come to the united states as well? >> i think eventually it will come here. the government would have to take a lot of steps, and particularly how to deal with cash hoarding to have negative rates different very star. jo expect anything dramatic. well see longer term rates dip down and how to communicate all of
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it, which has been kind of a bumpy ride it's at risk of making a policy mistake to the send we look back at three years it would be obvious that maybe they should have done something different. that all central banks are facing, they're not sure where neutral is and some of what powell called a midcourse correction. when he gives his jackson hole speech on friday, and the chair obvious uses that to look at longer-term issues what might we do different i would be expecting chair powell to say something about that of what the fed is thinking
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about longer term. to deal with this environment. >> this you wrote the book "this time is different. one of them is debt crises i always think of you when we get these cbo projections, adding more to the debt. when will we have a fiscal reckoning in this country, if at all? >> we haven't had full-blown debt crises from government debt in advanced country foss quite a while. in these real interest rates start rising, and then a lot of debt, pensions, et cetera sow if
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rates were to go up, there could be quite an adjustment i think it's a vulnerable that the government should be on guard again. a lot of cunning, say, italy, a lot of emerging marge that would have a lot of terrific. and we'll stay all over this message from the bond market, chances of a potential ressn.ceio "closing bell" will be back in 90 seconds
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bob pisani looks at the big movers let's start with bop. >> hello, david. just off the highs, the fed didn't seen to support -- so yields moved up a by higher yields trumps flatter yield curve. they came off their highs, but for the most part closed positive here.
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well mae a one at the re highs haven't been able to get over that if we can, you'llseymour bullish sentiment. the vix dropped below 17, the lowest since august. it's been a pretty volatile month. bob, thank bertha coombs has a look at the movers it is up about 5% from a week ago. that is compared to an average of about 3% for the nasdaq composite and nasdaq 100 chips have been another factor here they have also powered higher as
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well with the faang names, they have floated up with the rest of the market back to you. nordstrom is shooting highers after. here to react is dana telsy. dana, where does nordstrom fit into the pack? on the earnings guyance, while they just, they still stayed within the ranges, so i think that's what happened the anniversary sale was softer
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than expected. could it be that -- any little news that looked in-line to slightly better, there you go. sails know expected to be down 2%, that appears to be a downgrade. so it's rewarding, what? it took off the bottom end of the eps where, if anything, department stores overall are forwarding for more pressure in the back half of the year in terms of sales, especially when target just reported a 5% comp >> dana, what about this
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divergence we have seen between thoughs that are mall-based retailers, and the once that aren't, such as home depot, lowe -- will we continue to see that as a key theme? >> i think we are. value and convenience is what's working. whether it's gyms or movie theaters, restaurants, we're going to see fewer by better anchors, including some of depend stores. let's think of the small as a community engagement center. >> is that going to help macy's? l brands which we're waiting for as well, or for that matter nordstrom? >> i think what we're seeing set we'll see them right-size to relevancy.
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and there's got to be a way to address the margin structures. e-commerce costs money it's not as profitable as a physical store we need to get the margins reshamed they're still in the midst of buy online, pick up in store and the omni-channel initiatives >> dana, certainly the market has recognized all of that to a large degree, given the huge variation, so implied in what you're saying, it seems, is that those mall chains, the middle of the mall chains that look very cheap, the right of right-sizing, as you put it, will not be profitable even at these levels. >> i think mislevels will be interesting. we think, for example, like american eagle is one of their
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names, where there's opportunity. i think some of the names out there, look at the f corp, what they've been doing with northface, and brands that can control their own destiny is where we'll see opportunity. take a look at the cosmetics space. sephora has been doing well and continues to do well. >> but those brands have been beat up hard these are stocks down 20% at least so far this year >> they are down hard, down because of tariffs, but i think in the long term, those brand name are survivors when you have to look any world, which of the names that are out there, where could there be opportunity? some of them will continue to pull back if you don't have the reinvention for relevancy. >> speaking of l brands, still awaiting those results dana, thank you very much. >> thank you up next, bond markets
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signaling a possible recession just at the end of the trading session, we will discuss the outlook and what the white house could go jim nussle. and here's a look at today's big winners in the dow how do you gauge the greatness of an suv?
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purpose spoke to reporters on the white house lawn before leaving for an event in kentucky. >> i happen to have -- we're going to be doing background checks we're working with democrats, working with republicans we already have very strong background checks, but we'll be filling in some of the loop holes. a judge has horrided new york's metropolitan corrections center to improve housing conditions for one of jeffrey epstein's former cellmates he threatened to hold hearings on conditions if they don't improve treatment and access to attorneys. new images of the "titanic" have released. they captured the ship at the bottom of the atlantic explorer victor veskov is
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leading that mission pretty amazing. you are up to date sara, back downtown to you. >> looks like the movie. we have an earnings alert on l brands. >> for l brands, second quarter of reporting 24 cents on an adjusted basis the street had been looking for 20 cents, so there's your beat so as expected, the weakness was victoria's secret, the comparable sales do you know 6%. put it together, and the total cost for l brands' second quarter down 1%. just looking at the stores, comps down 4%. the companies reiterating the full-year guidance right now shares are down. they've been up for a moment, and now down
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it really is a stage difference between victoria's secret and bath & body works does that control the nair tough of splitting it off in. >> there's been concern that bath & body works is not that big as a stand-alone company there was a line for a while on l brands that each retail dat guy should have a leaders in theory that could thrive in the -- and obviously victoria's secret just botched whatever opportunity there was. >> no idea whether wax ner will be on the call, because obviously there are some other questions -- he's not, i'm told. >> you think analysts are going to ask -- >> no, but there is some overlap there that -- there is interest beyond prurient interests. >> that call, not expected to be
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on there. the yield curve flashing a warning sign for the second time in a week, this as the congressional budget office says tariffs will drag on u.s. growth the white house weighs different ways to fight a possible slump jim nussle er omb director under president george w. bush jim, anything surprises that came out today >> at least as i looked at it, there wasn't that much that was surprising it's also not surprises there would be nothing surprises cbo tends to be a right down the middle sort of forecaster. they take the consensus of the economics. there was no surprise that most are in consensus there would be a recession probably by the end of 2021. so there's no surprise there it adding up the deficit, no surprise that the deficit is
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exploding, almost to a trillion dollars, and we've added a lot of definite at this time spending since the passage of the tax bill as well as the budget deal this last month. i think the one surprise or the one i hope the white house pays attention to as well is -- you asked what can the white house do there's also a what should the white house not do i think the strong signal from cbo, as well as a number of other indicators, is quit put ago drag on trade. that is really the drag that's out there that will affect overall trade. it would affect our overall balance, it would affect consumer spending. it has the elkhart, indiana, effect there's a drag on jobs it just keeps going from there so i think the real tell or the signal from cbo is in
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relationship to trade and providing some certainty in that arena. and as far as economic projections, they do say growth will slow from 2.5% to 2.3%, and about 1.8% in each of the next four years that's not a recession forecast. >> no, it's not, but they want 1.8 over ten, if i read it correctly -- i may be mistaken, so they don't quite forecast directly a recession most even are suggesting that, depending on a number of factors this could just barely meet the test of a reception and then come right back. regardless, cbo is not -- is going to color outside the lines of the consensus forecast that's already out there. that's just not how they operate. >> jim, on a related point, there's some attention on the fact that the interesting rate assumptions are somewhat higher
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than the market would currently expect therefore, perhaps projecting higher interest costs in future years, maybe that mitigates the message a bit. what's the typical procedure, protocol for the cbo attempting to project interest rates out so far? >> that's a great question my experience with cbo is, again, they're not very dynamic in their forecasting when it comes to long-range especially they will take what they know today, and they will continue and extrapolate that out they will generally do that, again, coloring within the lines of whatever is out there in the consens consensus. i don't think you should look to cbo for soma new photographs or some nugget in they're going a different direction. i think listening to that powell said today, just a couple hours ago is probably more instructive about interest rates than the cbo report will be on that
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subject? >> this is the congressional budget office, the congressional being what i'm emphasizing there, but nobody seems to care anymore about deficits, do they? >> no, they don't. for someone like me who has always been a fiscal conservative republican and open-trade republican, i'm very troubled by the trend. i'm troubled by it because of what it does to the consumers. drag on what is 70% of a lot of the economic force in our country is what it does to consumers. representing credit unions, i tell you, we are hearing that noise, that frustration just from our members 115 million members across the country, they're coming in, worried about their future, whether it's their job, living paycheck to paycheck they see the job going up because of the trade war there's some uncertainty as we talk about recession coming, the costs going up, period, makes
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them start worrying about whether or not they'll be able to make ends meet. so we do a lot of financial health and literacy and work with them, just working through some of these issues i see it as a leading indicator of the concern, from the consumers, and if they decide they're going to pull out of the market, they decide they're going to stop spending, that will force is, i think, as quickly as anything into a recession. >> really quickly, does the president have any unilateral authority to change capital gains taxes? >> no, not that i'm aware of again, as soon as i say that i realize he's been quite prolific when it comes to executive orders, so maybe they have found a loophole he can certainly change withholding tables through the treasury, things like that, but eventually those tax bills come back to haunt taxpayers. if he's going to consider options, much of what he has to do it together with congress
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and as i've said before, quit being distracted by greenland, focus on getting our trade back on an even keel that's predictable and something we can have confidence in and that our trading partners can have confidence in. i think we can be tough and still be predictable i would hope that's what he considers more than anything else. >> we appreciate your time, sir. thank you. >> my pleasure good to be with you. jim in ussle joining us up next we'll break down the charts and whether the tariffs are a main cseau behind china's economic slowdown. do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging? prevagen is the number one pharmacist-recommended memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.
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back to mike santoli and the dashboard. >> sometimes the news doesn't speak to me. reduced speed zone is a big picture of chinese economic growth this is quarterly growth, year
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over year, in the chinese economy. we talk about how it hack the weakest in 25 years or so. obviously this is the boom times. but it's been a very gentle glidepath lower to what's been the annualized growth. this is from the peterson institute, by the way, when the u.s. started to impose tariffs with just a slight down tick, so it brings up the question has been felt in terms of economic pain from china. it also goes along with the other re-jiggering away from exports and toward more development, less reliance on trade, so it raises the question, guys, how much leverage is being applied with these trade measures >> important point mike, thank you.
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coming up, we will tell you what to expect from salesforce's earnings, due out after the bell tomorrow. the "fast money" traders will give their take on the earnings rorept. the stock is surging after hours.
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there is new concern we may be near a peak for ses oalf those models details when "closing bell" returns.
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once thought to belost forever. the most personal technology is technology with the power to change your life. the very popular and profitable suv and crossover market, which have carried the entire auto market, may be hitting a speed bump phil lebeau with the details phil. >> reporter: sarah, would you
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believe it or not there are 135 suvs and crossovers for sale right now? think about that if you go out to look for a new one, 135 guess what it is just going up from here. 143 next year, all the way up to 184, almost half of all of the vehicles for sale, will be suvs or crossovers in 2022. now, if you look at suv sales and crossover sales over the last decade, the sales per model have been steadily increasing. ah, but it peaked last year at 66,826, and it is going to decline from here. so basically for the automakers, you've got fewer models of each of those suvs that will be sold, and the profits will be squeezed that's the concernpeople have, especially with the big three for general motors, ford and fiat-chrysler because these have long been some of the most popular models out there pickup trucks are the most popular. as we see more suvs and
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crossovers come into the market those profits will be squeezed increasingly. >> i wonder if it is in the stock. >> i was going to say, phil, is there a sense out there there will be a big change in consumer appetite that these companies are not positioned for is it everybody competing with the same kind of models? >> it might -- the consumed to increase which is why so many automakers are saying, throw out another model, throw out another model. what the auto makers are doing, they're trimming production of certainly models the equinox out of the gm plant in mexico, they're trimming production there the ford edge when they build in kentucky, they will build on fewer shifts than expected you will see it more often for the automakers they have to be more judicious about how many models they put up up next, the look ahead. wings investors need to watch ase head into a new trading day when "closing bell" comes right back what about him?
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he hangs a picture of you next to the dryer. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. take a look at how we finished the day on wall street. higher across the board. the dow rallied 240 points, just off the session highs which were just above 300 points. all s&p 500 sectors finished
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higher consumer discretionary was the big winner after target closed up 20% lowe's had strong results. the nasdaq closing higher by almost 1%. we watched the bond market all day long we saw a brief inversion in the yield curve, the twos and ten spread first time we have seen it in about a week, though it did not shake the stock market this time like we saw last week. that's a classic recession tile, although i can count most of the guests on the program that we had, strategists and market watchers, said don't read that much into it this time it just speaks to the voracious demand for u.s. debt. >> it is a tentative inversion, too. it is touchy, more or less a flat curve it has been flattish for a while now. >> -- minutes and technology earnings by the way going to highlight tomorrow's wall street calendar let's start with sarah on the ecb. >> we will get the ecb minutes tomorrow from the last meeting these will be from the july policy meeting where the ecb adjusted guidance to suggest rates could be cut again very
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soon key question, what policy tools do they have left? are we going to see a restart of qe in europe most importantly, how is the market going to react to all of this are they going to celebrate it or will it be seen as insufficient and ineffective also, how close are ecb numbers thinking they are to a recession? big questions, guys, from mario dro drahgi and his final meeting before handing over the reins in october. >> everybody talks about the emps overnight which will feed into the whole story. >> they seem weaker. >> salesforce will be a highlight on tomorrow's earnings counter. it is $129 billion market cap company, josh. what's the preview >> reporter: so, david, i caught up with steve of webb bush he will pay close attention to company's full year revenue guides did the company raise it or not? currency is a headwind here. on the other hand, keenan notes the acquisition closed earlier than atuned so that could help
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bottom line, he expects the guide to remain unchanged at 16.45 and 16.65 billion. he said also will closely watch billings growth, his bogey there 19% growth year over year. that metric gives investors insight into how much new business the company is securing back to you guys. >> josh, thank you that does it for us on the "closing bell" >> "fast money" begins right now. ♪ live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square this is "fast money" i'm melissa lee. the traders on the desk are pete najarian, tim seymour, karen finerman and steve grasso. the great american consumer to the rescue again retail stocks surging into today's session, target handing in its best day ever we are keeping an eye on share of elle brands and nord strzok, on the move after recording results. nordstrom's conference call is getting under way. we will break down the highlights we begin with a big move late in the session in the bond market, another possible recession signal being shot as the yield
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curve inverts again.


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