tv Options Action CNBC November 15, 2019 5:30pm-6:00pm EST
other investments long into the future, and another way aag is working to make your retireme... better. don't wait. get your info kit now! it's friday you know what that means time for "options action." here is what we have on deck. >> coming up on the big show tonight. >> if you could have -- >> carter worth is raising a glass to what he says remains the single best opportunity in the market right now then -- >> our range to target, one pink only. >> captain dan nathan has ha combat plan if this retailer takes a dive around earnings >> plus. >> i thought you might put a volatile psycho path on the job.
>> we put a level headed make khouw to work. but he plan to prepare for volatility it's time to risk less and make more "options action" starts now. >> let's get to it health care getting a boost as president trump announced a new plan eamon javers has the latest from d.c. eeme >> melissa, the president spoke in the roosevelt room at the white house today to rollout what this administration is doing on health care transparency the president views this as a political win because a lot of people around the country agree with him that this is a kind of a shady area pricing pat hospitals. you don't have any idea what all the different procedures you're getting necessarily cost the president wants to change that here is what he would do president president saying that hospitals will now have to reveal discounted rates that they negotiate with insurers they have to disclose prices on about 300 different services that you would schedule in advance. so in theory patients would be able to then look at prices and pick and choose what they want
and compare prices among hospitals. most health care plans would be required to reveal the rates within and out of network doctors and if there are differences between the rates people would be able to see it the hospital industry says it may challenge the changes today. we'll see whether there is a legal fight here the administration today, melissa, said they believe they're on solid legal footing, making the changes and they say they are prepared to weather any legal challenge from the hospital industry. >> eamon thank you eamon javers joining from us the white house tonight. as this was going on as the president was unveiling the new rule, the proposal of health care was staging a rebound the sector up in today's session. up 6% over the last month. the second worst of the year the chart master says it the single best opportunity in the market so make the case, carter >> right, i think a couple of things first of all what you led with, it is the worst performing sector because energy isn't even a secretary are. energy is only 4% of the s&p and
two stocks exxon and chefrp are half the weight of the sector. if you look at real sectors, it's the worst performer that's the opportunity and yet it's now a recent outperformer, as you also said, melissa, meaning it's on a longer term basis underperformed you have the set up of one, two, four weeks of outperformance and the second thing, the second biggest sector in the market it's an important sector, that's lagged, showing nascent relative performance. and the bet aring here, whether it's a political overhang or whatever you call it is actually a place to commit capital versus chasing things that might be steep like apple or cha chases the cyclical trade which has had a lot of money go into it, banks, industrials those are sort of pulling back a bit. i think this is the single best opportunity in the market. >> mike, what's the trade. >> i think the health care sector is interesting for a couple of reasons. one of the things we can look at, valuation, it has been a weak performer possibly because
of some political reasons. that would be a reason it would be under pressure from a valuation perspective that means it has not necessarily seen an increase in valuations concurrent with the market both on price to sales, price to earnings however, like the rest of the market, options premiums are exceptionally cheap. i think the way to make a play here is keep it simple i was looking at the january 97 calls just out of the money looking at them earlier today. $1.65 is what you would pay. less than 2% of the level of xlb looking at that. this was a situation where going into a spread wouldn't make a great deal of sense because going and buying that outright call is a very reasonable price. i think a reasonable way to make a bullish et here. >> do you like health care here. >> i like the way they lay it out. you think about the xlv, you look at johnson & johnson, the largest component at 10% and you say it wouldn't take many of these to go high are for
this things to break out meaningfully as far as mike's trade, the idea of the long base that it's been and buying a call that's near the money two months out, i think the risk reward is favorable here i think there is a lot of ways you win. if the market goes higher you will see laggarded like this participate. about but may act defensive or people may think about things differently setting up into 2020 that's which i like this thing playing into january. >> you mentioned johnson & johnson. typically a defensive stock. typically a very stable stock. it's not one that moves a lot. moved close to $4 today. one of the larger moves we have seen in johnson & johnson in quite a long time. that i think is pretty interesting. the other thing is just reaching out and trying to make a bullish bet of any time, in any sector right now has to give almost every investor a little bit of pause here we have seen an incredible rally, sitting at all-time highs. and to reach out and chase stocks by going out and bying
equities at this stage when they're relatively expensive rather than using options right now, which are relatively cheap is just -- i can't imagine why anybody would do that. >> this is a short-term trade do you believe that the political influences on health care we have seen dominate earlier they can keep back in as we approach the election >> as the election approaches, i think that's certainly possible. however, i would say both the way that health care performed this week and the way the market performed this week, suggests that maybe we're going to see some other political affects coming in. i mean without getting too far into it. let's say there are some candidates that are less friendly to health care and the market and some candidates who might be better. the market is bafrg like it's going to see better candidates. >> we know that one of the important characteristics of investing and trading and frankly any part of capital exposure to risk is that often after something has moved money looks around to find the next thing that's going to move we see it all the time
could be ge off the bottom or craft heinz. as a group because it's second biggest, because as both offensive and defensive characteristics, i think money is going to seek this out. it's not new today although today was big it's been going on three, four five weeks that's a big tell. >> a slough of big names set to report earnings next we can home depot, lowes macy's and target check out target upa whopping 71% this year inches from all-time highs but the retailer gears up to report earnings dan bets it may be off target. break it down. >> i think it's important, like you said up 71% on the year. a massive outperformer in the retail and the big box are doing a lot of heavy lifting in retail wal-mart is outperforming the s&p. home depot and costco obviously significantly outperforming the s&p. but this one, the big one. there is the line in the middle in august. you see where the stock went up
20% in a day they reported the fiscal q 2 earnings, guided up for the year showing gad comps and great results in their omni channel strategy that would be online and off line working well together but i think as we go into the earnings report, the options market implies a hefty move about 6.5% moving about 11% over the last four quarters. last quarter's 20% move skews that a bit but look at the move since that breakthroughout i think it closed that day august 21st at 103. it's held the gap and trending upward that's generally constructive. but that's interesting to me also especially if you are a bull on the name look at the five-year base it broke out of i suspect that that level in the mid-80s is going to be significant technical support for a while. but my trade thinking about next week in particular is that they are not guyeding up the way they did in august. i think that reset investor's expectations a bit but i would play over the next
month for a pullback some of the consumer data and intentions we have had about buying into the holiday season seems a little depressed the idea in my mind if they give disappointing guyedens it should pull back a bit to just above oh 100 where it gapped to last quarter. i would being look at december expiration, option premiums fair into the print i know that implied implied move seems high but considering the stock is up 71% on the year i would look to a put spread targeting as the 100 level. today when it closed at 113.25 uktd buy the december 110, 100 put spread paying $2.50 buying one of the december 110 puts for 3.50 selling one of the 100 at a buck breaks down at 107.and a half down to 100. max bane there we have a month we have the s&p petering here at all-time highs every new day. i think a combination of disappointing guyedens and
pullback in the market you have the stock at 103. >> i was just going to say and big day today, green who was down wal-mart was down. amazon down. wal-mart put up a big number what you'd call a classic ke reversal flares up and closes on the low. that's a tell. >> target at two-year highs in valuation if it traded at mean valuation where would it trade about 100 that's interesting the put strike you chose something else interesting about the stroik if you look at the last 44 quarters where target reporting reported earnings and how it behave one month following the earnings result you would find out of 44 reported quarters it fell more than 10% only two times. 100 bucks is down 10% from where the stock closed today by selling that you mitigate the cost of putting on the traded carbably almost 30% of premium on the higher strike put but the likelihood it drops below that put you are selling very low if historical performance is any guide. >> for everything options axe
check out the website. while there check out the supercool news letter. here is what else is coming up next >> announcer: it's been great month for stocks with all the major indices set sitting at record highs. but if you're worried the recent run is about to roll over our mike khouw lays out his volatility protection playbook plus calling all "options action" fans reach into your pocket, grab your phone and tweet us your question at "options action. if it's nice, we'll answer it on air, when "options action" returns. ♪ >> announcer: "options action" is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade. ♪ ♪
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action." check out the bright shiny all all-time highs across the indices. beware, our chart master says there could be a vicks explosion ahead. carter with more. >> take a look what we know is that this is one month that's transpired. and every day, every hour, the every tick the market making new highs. yet the vix not making new lows. it's holding in principle. with one might think as the market goes higher the vix would make new lows. but for whatever reason it's holding. i want to focus on this level. take a look over the past month. and basically watch what happens when i draw lines here we have held this level just as we did here, just as we did here and we're starting to do this again. now, i've got the arrows drawn does it have to be you get a big
explosion? is it that the bulls say no, no carter you have to do this but the setup, the triple bottom, pull it back further. here is going back there is the collapse in december in equities, spike in vix. the key level again. and even as we have ticked higher, the market continued to sort of at the volatility level not make new lows. my hunch is that this could well be the setup for that kind of thing. i would also point out that you've got near record short positioning process vix as reported by the commodity commission and that often is the setup for something going the other way. >> all right so, mike, you have a call to action from this. >> yes, obviously if you think the vix is going higher, that's a corollary to saying you think the market guess lower trading the sics is tough today. because the vix index itself not tradeable. there are vix futures, options on the vix futures
but this is something i think to think about as a hedge so here are some things you want to think about if you do that. number one hedge tactically, i think we identified a reason you might want to hedge tactically we have had the period, seen that off of similar setups in the past we have seen the market draw back as a big spike in volatility make sure you size the trades appropriately. don't spend too much premium making the bearish bets. finally think about it as an insurance play the market is strong here. when you spend insurance premium one of the things you do is pay specking it not pay off hopeful the car doesn't crash but if it does you have that if you need it obviously we pointed out that stocks and volatility move in opposite directions. you can see that in this chart where where map the vix over the s&p. kor spoending to the drawdowns in the s&p let's take a quick look at spx options. this is what the vix is based on it's the reason why when the market rallies typically the vix
drops. because you my great towards the higher strikes where when the market declines you go to the lower strikes where the implied volatility is higher that's the ante correlation. one of the things we could point occupant is that we're basically at the base level of volatility meaning options are inexpensive. one way to play this, i was looking to january, the 300, 280 put spread looking at this earlier. 3.25 you could spend for the january 300s sell the 28 of that would represent a 10 process% decline from the current level. think about it it's a $20 put spread spending $2.15. about 1.5% right now of where the s&p is currently trading you're spending relatively small amount relatively to where spy is you get a big pay off in the event of decline that's a setup you get simply
because you have this current condition in volatility. where options premiums especially at the money are exceptionally low. >> yes, talking about at the money options premiums, another way to chart it look at implied volatility the price of options spy and if you look at that chart is it looks like the vix banging on the bottom around 10% or so. usually we see upticks involved from that point. what does that mean, the spy goes the other way goes down. i like mike's trade. break even down what 3 positive 5 or 4% but the whole idea of a 9 to one payout is attractive. i think it makes sense in these periods. we're tding into thanksgiving and christmas and new year's what do options do when they don't tray they did he kaye the idea of this as a spread makes sense. because if you buy the outright put that thing might dekay faster than you think in a
normal trading period. >> what is a corollary in terms of the markets. >> we had a flattish top over the last six, seven, eight sessions but it's still a rising tick by tick circumstance whereas that's not reciprocal for vix not making new lows. that's a foreshadowing of what may be coming or as i point out the bear would say no, the vix is about to crash to 10. >> actually i would make a quick point about that if you see the market make new highs and volatility also rise realized and implied that's a real warning sign. we have seen -- we saw a bit of a precursor to that in the last quarter of last year we saw that absolutely in some of the big significant market draw downs we have seen. we saw implied volatility rising before the credit crisis into the tech we can if you go back in history you see the anxiety level rises when the market is stretched and they spend premium. not willing to call the top in the market but willing to say look how much farther can we go?
you start to see that confluence of events, then i would be more anxious than i am right now. >> how long do it have to last before you are concerned, before you say maybe we are headed for those periods. >> we should be keeping an eye on it -- in the tech wreck it on it -- in the tech wreck it was a pro ♪ ♪
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i'm not really a, i thought wall street guy.ns. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna ay some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade time for the final call.
carter >> xlv >> january five put spread pay nine to one. >> target, put spread don't pay that >> that does it for us see you back here next friday. "mad money" starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. can you imagine what would