tv Squawk Box CNBC April 6, 2020 6:00am-9:00am EDT
"squawk box" begins right now. good morning i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen the last week, you were looking at a down week for the market. the dow was down by 2.7%, the s&p was down by 2% and the nasdaq was down by 1.7%. this morning you're looking at big green arrows we've been watching the futures and it looks like the dow is implied to open up by 865 points s&p futures up by just up over 100 points and the nasdaq up by 321. keeping an eye on the treasury market and right now it looks like the yield on the ten-year sitting at 0.66% big story for the markets, really, crude oil prices they've been rebounding overnight after coming under a little pressure. the wti was down by 9.2% on the news of a delay of an opec meeting. but then bouncing back after
losses early in the session after the ceo of russia's sovereign wealth fund told cnbc and moscow and saudi arabia are very close to an oil deal. wti and brent are both coming off their best week on record. not recent records on records ever all the way back to 1983 when they started tracking wti last week wti was up by 31.7%. up by 12% on friday alone. a meeting of major oil producing countries was delayed but still expected later this week that news just being told to cnbc that it looks like they are close to a deal. andrew, i'll send it over to you. >> meantime, the latest on the pandemic the number of confirmed cases worldwide now totaling more than 1.2 million. more than 330,000 of those are right here in the united states and more than a third of the u.s. cases are in new york state. the death toll in america standing at more than 9600
overseas, british prime minister boris johnson was admitted to a hospital for tests a spokesman called it a precautionary test the prime minister tested positive for the coronavirus just ten days ago and his symptoms, including fever, were persistent earlier yesterday queen elizabeth ii gave a rare televised address to the nation urging citizens to confront the pandemic with resolve and unity. meanwhile in wuhan, china, yesterday, municipal workers began knocking down barriers that had been set up at the start of the outbreak. the city of 11 million people had been on complete lockdown since january 23rd the quarantine set to be formally lifted there on wednesday. good news there. hopefully a model for what may come here in the united states joe, over to you president trump expressing hope late last night that the u.s. is starting to see some leveling off of covid-19 cases in some of the country's biggest
hot spots and also some positive news for the last couple of days continuing coming out of parts of europe like italy eamon javers joining us. sunday night, still a task force. i'm tired watching some of these task forces. on one of them i left, i went over totally alone, walked around, to get some fresh air. came back, it was still going on like an hour later it's pretty unbelievable >> the president has been doing this two-hour monster briefings every day. look, yesterday they actually had a lid at the white house which meant they told all the reporters early in the day yesterday, we're not going to make any more news you're not going to see the president. everybody can go home. and then the president tweeted, you know what, i am going to have a briefing after all. everybody scrambled into position for that one. what i thought was interesting yesterday is we heard from the president about this idea on tariffs, on foreign oil, particularly saudi oil
a lot of the oil executives who went to the white house on friday went there with the goal of talking the president out of putting tariffs on foreign oil a number of them were worried he was just about to do it on thursday and friday. he had that meeting. that message seems to have resonated with the president because during that briefing yesterday and over the weekend, we heard him still talking about tariffs but only in a conditional sense. here's what he said. >> if the oil price stays the way it is because people that really want to see it go up, when i say, we want to save a great industry we built a great industry in this country if they don't get along, i would do that, yeah. i would do tariffs very substantial tariffs because we're independent now. we have our own oil. if i did the tariffs, we would essentially be saying, we don't want foreign oil >> for now the president talking about very substantial tariffs but only conditionally if the
saudis and russians don't come together to make some kind of a deal to cut production he told you last week he felt like they were close to a deal that they had guaranteed him or indicated there was going to be a deal that didn't seem to come together over the weekend. we know there's a meeting coming up later in the week where they might be able to pull that together the president appears now to be using that tariff threat as a little bit of leverage to push both sides toward a deal, joe. >> we'll see, eamon. should be interesting. looks like, you know, the oil prices did hold on to those gains, those ridiculous gains. not ridiculous but in terms of size, you know, very, very large percentage moves from a low level. eamon, when i read a quarter of the economy is shut down, i guess just watching everything, it -- thats a lot but what's open i mean, i was surprised
three-quarters are still open. >> right >> look, i mean, it's incredible what has happened to the economy. we've never done anything like this there's no sort of recipe for moth balling an entire economy and then being able to put it in cold storage, to mix my metaphors, and then pull it out later and have it be undamaged no way of knowing exactly how all of this is going to shake out and what kind of long lasting damage we'll see versus what kind of things can bounce back right away as soon as we get to some point where there is some kind of treatment for covid or some vaccine developed. we could be months away from that >> eamon, hearing the ton of the press conferences over the weekend, the press briefings, it took a decided turn from, okay, we're definitely shutting this down to a more mixed message, yes, there's going to be a a couple of tough weeks, the death
and the idea that we can't keep the economy closed forever we have to get back up and running. those dual messages seemed to work their way in. how is that playing out? is that different advisers telling him different things or just the natural human reaction of, oh, my gosh, we have to shut things down, it's terrible, there's going to be a lot of death and then thinking what happens to the economy as a result >> look, i think these are the president's instincts, very visible here he had been off that talking point of reopening the economy for about a week and then we heard more of that i think he's looking at the economic carnage and trying to figure out how he gets this country back on some kind of stable economic footing when all this is over and done with you also heard simultaneously from the surgeon general who was saying things over the weekend like this is going to be -- this week is going to be pearl harbor, it's going to be 9/11,
it's going to be a very difficult week the most difficult americans have ever experienced. how you can have that message going out and a message about reopening the economy at the same time is very difficult. clearly, the president wants to keep his eye on both >> eamon, two quick questions for you. one about this report that came out yesterday that seems to have been confirmed by a number of news outlets now about this massive blowup or fight between peter navarro and anthony fauci over the -- over how well hydroxychloroquine works what do you know about that? >> what we know is what axios has been reporting i can't independently verify it. axios has a good track record on these things they report navarro was in the situation room confronting dr. anthony fauci during one of these situation room meetings on
saturday and literally dropped a stack of papers on the desk in the situation room and said, these are scientific studies that show that this drug works here, is effective in treating covid-19 we need to move forward on this. and i'm sourcing it from around the world. fauci, though, skeptical of that saying that those were just anecdotal reports, the science is not up to snuff, in his opinion, there's not enough peer-reviewed science there and not enough diversity to the literature yet in order for him to come to a conclusion. navorro has been an interesting pig. he's been tapped by the president to lead the defense production act response here he's sort of becoming a more influential figure in the administration through the course of this, which is something to watch >> my other quick question, we'll talk to marco rubio in the 8:00 hour, but the small business loans i talked to so many small business owners over the weekend who were struggling to get access to the loans.
lots of banks where they had checking accounts but didn't have loans outstanding at those banks so they didn't take credit a lot of business owners saying, look, i never took on debt that's a great thing and yet because they don't have that relationship with the banks, they're not getting the loans. >> right look, this thing is being put together on the fly. the classic building the airplane while you're in the air sort of situation. and there are bound to be these kind of problems but the banks and the government are going to need to work very carefully together to make sure this program gets up and running the way it was promised to american small businesses or else -- i mean, the level of frustration and anger and disappointment is going to be off the charts for those people who can't get access to it and those millions of americans who stand to lose their jobs if this doesn't go right the amount of effort on all sides is going to be enormous here and they're going to have to get this right.
>> eamon javers, thank you, sir. when whether he come back, a lot more on "squawk box. dr. scott gottlieb is going to update us on his efforts to flatten the curve in some of the biggest coronavirus hot spots. great to get his sense of where we are we'll also ask him about news that a tiger at the bronx zoo tested positive for the coronavirus and what it means for those who are quarantined with pets. we'll be right back after this maybe we'll talk about joe exotic as llwe ♪ in nearly 100 years serving the military community, we've seen you go through tough times and every time, you've shown us, you're much tougher your heart, courage and commitment has always inspired us and now it's no different so, we're here with financial strength, stability and experience you can depend on and the online tools you need
welcome back to "squawk box. a tiger at the bronx zoo has tested positive for coronavirus. the tiger developed a dry cough and was tested as a precaution the zoo's chief veterinarian says the test is not the same as the one for humans several other tigers and lions showed symptoms of a respiratory illness. all are expected to recover. the cdc saying it does not have evidence that companion animals, like pets, can spread covid-19 but stresses more information is needed about how covid-19 affects animals. for the latest on the response to the pandemic want to bring in
former fda, dr. scott gottlieb i don't know if you have pets or have been watching "tiger king" on netflix, but should we be concerned about pets before we get into the rest of it? >> must have been a complicated swab of that lion in the zoo look, there's really little evidence that this virus infects animals. there's some anecdotal reports here and there of animals getting infected if the pet is close to a human, they ultimately could get transferred but they're one-off anecdotal episodes probably isn't an indication that there's widespread transfer. there are cases that if humans are in close contact with an animal, they can get the animal infection but you have to get a big dose from the animal virus to get it because typically the virus itself wouldn't be contagious to a human. it can probably work both ways. >> watching joe exotic on "tiger
king" playing with the tigers, they're very close i do want to talk to you about the more serious issues of the numbers and just how terrible a week we are expecting. also what seems, at least from the administration, maybe you can weigh in on this, a glimmer of hope of where we may be going with this curve here and the length and duration of all of this. >> we've been talking about this for a couple of weeks. the curves are improve the model, if you've tracked it over time, you see the model itself has improved. the number of deaths they were modelling on that model about a week ago, the upper balance 240,000 deaths now the upper bound is 170,000 deaths so, as data accrues, that model starts to improve. remember, this isn't like forecasting the weather. when you make a model and make a forecast, you then do things to affect the outcome the model is constantly evolving
based on the behavior you're engaging in to try to improve the model. i suspect when they update that model, i presume today, you'll see improvement. the northern states, the pacific northwest and new york, are improving. they're showing signs of hitting their peak probably this week. the south and the southeast will be heating up. this is going to be a difficult week >> let's go to the big question i think ceos are trying to figure out, executives, everybody, we're all trying to figure out, when we're going back to work and what it means to even go back to work. what that even looks like to the extent, are we going back to work and it's like a time machine, it's like what life was like in february or we're going back to work and we go back with gloves and masks on on our way in and out, go straight home, we don't go to a lunch place or restaurant tell us sort of, a, what is your timeline for, quote, going back to work look like, and what does
going back to work look like >> i think we should ask our parents what it was like in the summertime when polio was circulating or great grandparents who are alive when there were smallpox outbreaks in cities or even measles it was a drag on society there were serp things that didn't happen. i think we're likely to see certain things are suppressed. this virus isn't going away. by july and august, it will collapse, meaning fall down to 1,000 cases a day, perhaps hundreds, but sporadic outbreaks here and there and come back in the fall this is going to become epidemic in the southern hemisphere and want to come back in the fall. so the question is, what activities don't come back or how do we change the nature of the way we do certain things until we can get to a therapeutic or vaccine vaccine is a year away by
therapeutic is by this fall. >> parents out there who have kids want to know -- some want to know if their kids are going back to school i think you answered that before you think not. are they going to camp this summer, for example? >> well, school's out this year. camps are probably going to be closed maybe the camps will try to get a month in i think there's an attempt to restart school in the fall and have residential college we'll have to see if we can contain the outbreaks in the fall as soon as you have a large outbreak in a campus or local district, there will be inclination to close the school. this is likely to become epidemic nationally the way it is now but you're likely to see epicenters spread. when that happens, you'll see cities get shunned, conferences and activities curtailed we have to learn to live with it - >> that's the question do you think there will be conferences, events, people will
travel this fall, they'll be getting on airplanes or do you think that will not be taking place? >> i don't think anyone crowds 5,000 people into a conference room again for a long time i think the marginal customer doesn't return to theatres, the cruise industry, disneyland. you decide what you think the marginal customer is, but typically the marginal customer gives those entities their profit margins i think they need to reassess that i don't think people will be crowding onto cruise ships the same way can i boat go out 80% field? >> i'll make it more complicated. do you think people will travel for thanksgiving they'll travel to people's homes around the country as they do, or go on vacation at christmastime, given the timeline you're now talking about? the timeline you're talking about is a lot longer than the timeline most americans are thinking about, in large part, based on the administration talking about this ending at the end of this month. >> i think a certain percentage of the population will be more
circumspect about crowding into tight spaces indoors pick your activity going to a family's home for thanksgiving isn't one of those activities i think will be curtailed. crowding into a restaurant for an adult population is so, there are certain things i think -- >> you're not going to get on an airplane look, we'll see people be more circumspect -- >> will you fly? a will fly i'm sure people will fly but will you take that extra flight will you go on a trip you didn't need to take that's what's going to change. i think the marginal activity that involves crowding into theaters, airports, small venues inside where there is spread is going to change, especially as these reports of outbreaks happen around the country. the idea that things are going to snap back, we'll forget about this, this is gone, that's not the case this is going to be with us. remember, smallpox circulated for years. measles circulated for years polio circulated for years
before there was a vaccine and it changed american life thinged changed. we have to do things differently with the coronavirus circulating in the background. this is a fearsome pathogen. things will change until we can get a vaccine. an effective drug can deliver the same kind of opportunity, which is why i'm so perplexed why there's not a more deliberate effort to get it. that we could have in the near term >> dr. scott gottlieb, enjoy talking to you hope to have this opportunity to do it tomorrow thanks so much joe, over to you >> thanks a lot. >> i don't know whether that was enjoyable, but it is good to hear the doctor's announcements. coming up, today's top corporate stories, including the big tech firm that is now producing face shields for hospitals. as we head to break, here's some images of the pandemic's impact from yesterday across america.
time now for the executive edge apple ceo tim cook said on twitter yesterday that the company has sourced more than 20 million masks and is working with governments to donate them where they're needed he also said the company has designed face shields for health workers and producing and shipping them to hospitals they pack flat, he said, 100 per box can be assembled in less than two minutes everybody's getting involved >> everybody's getting involved. everybody's jumping into this in all good ways. meantime, wells fargo says it's capping its participation in the u.s. government's small business coronavirus, this may not be in a good way, at $10 billion due to what they're calling regulatory constraints the federal reserve in early 2018 had ordered wells fargo to keep its assets below $1.95 trillion until it improved
governance and risk controls after a wave of sales practice scandals a little bit, though, jockeying here, maybe trying to push the government to give it a little more wiggle on that so it can make those loans meantime, american airlines has slashed 90% of new york area sflits as demand for travel to the coronavirus hot spot has evaporated operating just 13 flights from the three main airports serving new york city. the reduced schedule will continue until may 6th other airlines including united and jetblue had already announced deep, deep cuts to their new york area schedules as well becky? >> yeah, i think united, andrew, said at newark it was going from 139 flights a day down to 15 flights a day. and at laguardia from 18 flights a day down to two. that's going to last for at least the next three weeks we'll see. again, the big question is how long this lasts, how long does it take to get back to normal.
i think that conversation with scott gottlieb kind of laid it all out. when we come back this morning, the futures are pointing to some big gains at the open right now, the dow is indicated up 800 points. last week was a down week for the markets. dow was down by 2.7% the s&p was off by 2%. when we come back, we'll check in with market watcher mark brandt also a programming note, former fed chair janet yellen will be on cnbc at 10:00 a.m. for an exclusive interview. at&t has connected us every day for over 100 years. and we're here for you - especially now, doing everything possible to keep you connected. through the resilience of our network and people... we can keep learning, keep sharing, keep watching,
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good morning u.s. equity futures are bouncing this morning they were up 900 they were right around 800, going above 800, just below 800. our own mike santelli -- mike santoli, i knew that would happen i don't know mike santelli, i don't know if those people are still letting him stay at that second place but, mike, so we did -- we had that horrific week after the ackman lows, i think then we had that rebound what did we -- i think we talked before, 37% of the selloff back. then we lost 2.5% last week, which was, given all the news, seems stable, seems somewhat stable this would be just under 4%
today. that would put us back on track to be clawing back the 50% retracement of the break i don't know what happened it's going to be a rough week. but then, i don't know, there are glimmers in europe and maybe glimmers starting here of some type of light, maybe, at the end of the tunnel. >> clearly that's what the market is reacting to, perhaps trying to extrapolate some perceived improvement. the tricky part is the market is going to grab hold of that once it's a decisive shift in the trend in terms of the virus and it's also probably going to overanticipate it a couple of times and reacting to other things out there in the markets. last week, though, to your point, it kind of sagged lower by 2%, 2.5%. it didn't really break down. people say, volatility drained away to some degree. it seems as if it was kind of
just knocking around this narrower range which on a net basis maybe wasn't so bad. for context, this rally in the premarket would not get us back to where we were at the top of therebound moment, last week i was 2630, 2626 on the s&p 500 was the close. so, it's still kicking around that range i think governor cuomo's press conference yesterday where he detailed one symptom of cabin fever is mood swings i think that's what we have in these markets. you can say that march 23rd low is plausible in pricing in whatever the heck a typical recession is in terms of earnings and all that but the duration is a complete mystery and the market is not using its typical signals of trying to price in, you know, what might be coming down the road in a few months i think it's one of those -- it makes sense that we should put some distance today between us and the lows but it's not
necessarily something the market has a high conviction as dur -- by the way, s&p has been trading so tightly with the credit markets, with the high yield etf, for example just because, i think, the high yield market is a proxy for how long this lasts. that's what tells you how much balance sheet will happen. you'll miss maturity dates, have more defaults. they might be pricing in huge number of defaults that's the tricky part we've priced in a bunch of pain. is it enough >> mike, thanks. all right. that's the second place where you are right now -- or third? >> just relying on the kindness of strangers, as you know, joe. >> you pitch in -- >> and there was a place in between this one, too. >> all right thanks for playing along
thank you. thanks, mike back to you. >> right now i have a picture of mike in my head as stella, relying on the kindness of strangers. let's dig in deeper with what's happening with the markets joining us is mark grant, chief global market strategist at b. riley fbr. you've put out a pretty thoughtful piece this morning. trying to fast forward and play ahead how this is going to change our economy before we get to that, let's talk very quickly about the immediate, what mike had been referencing were these mood swings in the market and i think you are of the opinion this will be much deeper issues that the market has to work its way through that this is not going to be a quick rebound. >> that's my viewpoint, becky. i think we're in someplace between a recession and a depression by the time we get through all this as joe pointed out earlier, about 25% of the economy is shut
do down that's accurate as far as i'm concerned but you have to go further. there are businesses like the travel business, the hotel business, the restaurant business, and you can go on, the shipping lines, the cruise lines, where there's likely to be a very large amount, meaning over 50% of bankruptcies and reorganizations that are facing us the economyis not only down, but when we do start edging back up, it's not going to be like it was before the department of defense called me about new initiatives, they wanted my opinion. i was saying, for instance, the slogan has to change from make america great again to make america safe again we can't rely upon these foreign countries for our medical supplies, for other essential things that the united states
needs. we need to make them in america, buy them in america. if they cost a little more, fine, they cost a little more, but we've got to be safe >> that's some major restructuring. it makes sense what you're laying out i would anticipate that there are calls from congress for things like this, having seen some of trouble we've gotten ourselves into with the supply chain being so dispirit in so many industries you think would be essential to making sure america is safe. let me ask you, i don't know if you heard our conversation earlier this morning with dr. scott gottlieb he was pointing out that this is probably going to be problematic for quite a bit longer than most people are anticipating at this point. i think our kids have finally decided they're probably not going to go back to school until june at the earliest, if that happens. what happens in the fall when -- if we don't have a cure for this yet, wie don't have a sack seen for this yet, would we continue to see these issues play out through the fall and next winter
where you have outbreaks again and where you have to shut down school, you have to shut down industries again how does that kind much play out? not to mention just how gun shy americans may be after living through this and not too eager to go back to some of the things they used to do precrisis. >> i did hear dr. gottlieb i thought his comments were very thoughtful about the medical issues but we have to separate obviously, people in their lives and their health come first, but you have to separate the medical outlook from the economic outlook. the outlook for the economy, in my opinion, is none too good people aren't going to go back to work. it's not like all of a sudden we're going to say okay and it's going to be the same again it's not going to be the same again because of the tremendous amount of bankruptcies in many industries and reorganizations, you're going to see people out of work for a lot longer you're going to see an economy that's going to have to make not
only an economic shift but a psychological shift. as i said, my statement to the department of defense was, make america safe again and that's what we've got to do, which is not only a medical comment, it's an economic comment so people can go back to work, stand on their own two feet so that we have, you know, industries that can rehire people. but if you look all across the board, even if you look at what's happening with the banks and some of the other major institutions, you know, they're troubled and they're want going to come back any time soon while the market from day to day bounces one way or bounces another way because it's very erratic because of the medical situation, i think on a longer term that it's going to be much more problematic than most people or most institutions think to get back on their own
two feet and stand there independently. >> if that's the case, and this is always the question that we never know -- you can never call the bottom it's always hard the question is, if you have cash on the sideline, are you supposed to put it in now given how far we've gone already does it go that much more? is that what you're arguing? and if you are -- have a conviction that it's going to get worse and not better, do you sell now, which is almost an unheard of thing to suggest but i ask the question because i think investors are trying to figure out what they're supposed to do. >> andrew, you're a very thoughtful fellow. no, i don't think the answer is to sell now. i think what you have to consider is the timeline, which i've been writing about in my commentary the timeline is from here, which is today, to when we have some kind of medical resolution, and which, of course, we don't focus on as much when we have some kind of economic resolution. my viewpoint with institutions
and the individual accounts that i do business with is the following -- there's a timeline where you need "x" amount of cash, "x" amount of money. the problem with cash, i think it's not king but i think it's the handmaiden to your income stream so you need some cash so you make sure you don't get yourself in some trouble. then i think over this timeline, this period of time, slowly, deliberately, nibbling you put some money back in the stuff, especially in two ways. one, what's in your portfolio that you have a loss in that you can buy at a lower price, or if you own closed in funds or mutual funds or etfs, what could you buy at a lower price and get a higher yield if income is your necessity? two, i think the key is then you look around and you see what industries, for instance, that don't have a lot of leverage or companies that don't have a lot
of leverage that look at good opportunities for the future and you nibble slowly and you add to the portfolio and i think that's the way to play it >> mark, mohamed had similar thoughts we'll have him on later. implicit in all these things is we may get some kind of a break we've seen in the stock market eventually that's similar to some of these other horrific breaks where we actually hit 50%. 50% down now, given the back drop you just gave, it sounds like that wouldn't be out of the question for you and since we're only down 27, going down another 20 should give people a sell signal, if that's really what you believe. same with mohamed. i couldn't get him to say sell now either he just says, oh, yeah, it's going to grind lower, blah, blah, blah should you sell? well, no so then you're having it both ways doempblt don't sell but it's going to get much, much worse.
are we going down 50%? and if so, total, then save another 23%. don't just sit there with your thumb up your nose so, say what you mean. is it going down 50 or not >> okay. one, i think mohamed, i know him, he's a very bright guy. two, i'll answer your question absolutely directly. no, i don't think we're going down 50% yes, i think we're going to have some optimism -- we could go down another 5 or 10% and i think that's about it the reason i say that is some industries - >> that would be to the lows we already hit. >> right >> that's a retest of the lows, all right. the scenario you painted sounded much, much worse >> no, i'm not painting a much, much worse i'm just saying it's going to be some worse and it's going to be far worse for some industries, joe, and it's going to be not so
worse and better for others. >> you see what i'm saying. >> i got it. i responded directly. >> if we're going to match -- all right. i'm going to get mohamed later if we're going down -- if we are going down 50, you should sell the day. that's my only point a lot of people think we still are. >> i don't >> all right okay, good >> fair? >> you know, you want a square answer, we're not going down 50%. we're just going to be in a very different economic environment >> you may need to sell those glasses -- >> thank you. >> my pleasure, becky. always good to be on >> good to see you we'll talk to you soon andrew >> you, too. >> okay. great conversation when we come back, futures sharply higher this morning. take a look at some of the names in the dow that are leading the way. later, we'll talk to grubhub ceo matt maloney about how his company is trying to help restaurants in the midst of the
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning let's bring you up to date on u.s. equity futures at this hour we do have some good news. we have some green arrows for you. the dow looks like it would open up 842 points higher nasdaq, 31 is points higher. s&p 500 looking to open 100 points higher. all of that on the back of some expectations about what may happen in the oil patch and the oil world, the price of oil. meantime, we have news just out. jpmorgan chase's ceo jamie dimon just publishing his annual letter to shareholders not surprisingly it deals
heavily with how the bank is handling the coronavirus pandemic the bank is offering a number of virus relief measures to customers, including grace period for loan payments and waiving of late fees he says jpmorgan is ready to help the government in virus relief measures. giving employees an additional five days off as well as paid medical leave for workers who aren't well. as for the economy, dimon says he assumes the future will include a bad reception and the bank's board would consider suspending the dividend under extremely adverse conditions there's only one mention of his recent heart surgery he thanks -- it's in the last paragraph of the entire letter he thanks all of those who sent him well wishes, as we have. also has some comments about this pandemic. says, there should have been a playbook for the pandemic, but he says this shouldn't be about finger pointing, especially now.
and quotes john f. kennedy saying it's not what -- it's not what you can do for the country, it's what -- or, rather, what the country can do for you, what you can do for the country joe, over to you. >> okay, andrew, thanks. coming up, could be another wild week for oil. starting on you the that way eat quite as much now. gained more than 40% last week, but compared to the way it dropped, these numbers, we're getting used to them the latest news on the situation. the war, the talks, the possible datante between russia and sdiau arabia helima croft is joining us next.
what would this deal look like and what are the -- what is the probability? would it be 10 million barrels a day? does it -- do we need the united states to kick in? and will it be happening this week is it in everybody's best interest or just too much bad blood between russia and the saudis >> i think it's going to be very hard to get to 10 billion barrels a day without the u.s. contributions. with the russians and saudis, you could get 6 million hence why you have an effort not to just get the u.s., norway, brazil, canada all on board for an agreement it will still be really challenging. there was a spat over the weekend between saudi arabia and russia do u.s. producers want to contribute can they contribute because of u.s. antitrust laws? it will be difficult to get this done by thursday carol dmeet t-- dmitry off, he
has ties to them and it's going to be challenging to get this done by thursday. >> is there enough motivation in terms of stabilizing the price to where the revenue of russia would -- you know, where you'd make up for the revenue you lost because it's such low prices with, you know, maybe higher prices you'd be cutting back on production is that going to motivate? because no one's going to do anything that's against their self-interests >> they have a lower fiscal rate than many of the lower producers. i think what they're looking for, they're looking for a higher price they're tired of bearing the
burden the u.s. should sit down some barrels. russian energy companies have been sanctioned aggressively since 2014 and they're looking for some relief on those sanctions. the question is, can we give the russians enough to get them across the finish line >> and how about the saudis? >> i mean, the saudis absolutely need higher oil prices they have a fiscal break even of $80 a plus they can borrow. it's more challenging for the russians to borrow i think from the saudi perspective, they're very clear. they're not going to do it unless the russians are there. you have to get the russians on board with the saudis. they want some u.s. participation and they want some sanctions relief not everybody in opec is saying the challenge is so big with the demand problems, we need almost every producer there hence why they're going against norway, canada, brazil to try to get everybody on board with some kind of production cut
agreement. >> and is it in the price already, some type of agreement? do we go back into the 30s, do you think? >> last week we had an amazing move anticipating. 10 to 15 barrels is going to be incredibly difficult to get that done if we don't get an agreement on thursday and if the saudis once again slash their official prices, we could talk about being in the teens pretty soon >> okay. thanks, helima. >> thank you. >> stay in front of that camera. i saw you on earlier probably be on a little bit later, too >> i think so. when we come back, the treasury department rolling out its small business loan program. we're going to talk to the president of the american bankers association about how it's going so far. that conversation is next. plus, grub hub ceo matt maloney is going to tell us how the virus outbreak is causing
rapid changes in the food dlib ri industrany d how grubhub is trying to protect its workers. we'll be right back. ♪ you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis.
president trump saying there are signs that the covid-19 outbreak is leveling off that has markets in rally mode this morning and oil coming off its best week on record as one russian insider telling cnbc, saudi arabia -- that saudi arabia and russia are very close to a deal. plus, the government trying to get money into the hands of small business, but banks say they can't fully meet the demand we're going to speak to the ceo of the american bankers association about the government stimulus bill and the state of the banks. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin u.s. equity futures at this hour, we've been between 780 and up and back. just over 800 given the last one that i saw that would get back last week's
selloff, if you want to call it that it was just a grind lower. about 2 1/2% this would be under 4% we will see, andrew. >> okay. j.p. morgan chase's ceo jamie dimon out with his annual letter to shareholders this morning we've been pouring over it as has wilfred frost who joins us on the news line curious about your big take aways. we talked earlier about his big call that there likely is a big recession and this other issue that in the -- he could see in a certain case that the dividend could be suspended i'm curious what your big take away was. >> yeah, absolutely, andrew. i'm going to get to that point of the dividends and the buy back the first big take away was that he came back to work just last week this typically comes out around this time. i'm not sure exactly when he wrote it on that note, it's usually about 50 pages long. this one is only 23 pages.
so it's quite a lot to get through in a short space of time, of course. near the top of the letter he does address that. he says, quote, in these annual letters i usually cover a range of topics. however, right now as we deal with the aspiring effects of this pandemic i want to focus on what we as a bank can do to remain well-positioned to support our clients, customers and communities across the globe. guys, it very much is a 23-page letter focused on the current prices more than anything else i get a sense that he did want to get this out quickly since getting back to work i want to get to what you said and the numbers as it relates to this crisis. he says it will include a bad recession combined with some kind of financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008. our bank cannot be immune to the effects of this kind of stress i think that's what you picked up on as well, andrew, 10 or 15 minutes. on that note, sticking with the numbers and what this crisis
really means to their bank, he talked about the severely adverse scenario that they test the bank under for the stress test each year highlights how even during that they would still make money each quarter. since they've kind of amped it up, quote, we've run an extremely adverse scenario that shows a deeper contraction of gdp down as much as 35% in the second quarter lasting through the end of the year. even under this scenario the company would still end the year with strong liquidity i guess it's the first time we've seen any kind of clear guidance on numbers based on a 35% gdp that we may face because of the pandemic. that's quite interesting our banks may not be immune from the effects and it's possible that under that scenario they would suspend the dividends,
though not planning at the moment clearly they have with the buy backs. one quick thing, i know we have to run there are many pages of this on the extraordinary length they're going through to help the customers and help the employees. i think all of the banks are doing similar stuff. and clearly those are the things that are important to others even if we focus on the numbers even as it relates to the bank itself >> wilf, thank you very much wilfred frost. the $350 billion payroll protection program that was announced on friday, despite 2200 lenders on the sba platform, very few loans were paid out in the very early stages at least. kate rogers joins us now she's got more on how the process is kind of playing out as we get a little deeper into this kate, good morning >> reporter: hi, becky good morning from the information that's been made available to cnbc, we understand the process would work like this
small business owners contacted the bank that they currently have a relationship with and submit their ppp application from sba.gov new applications were released late last week, which meant that some small businesses had to resubmit to their bank the bank then verifies the information on the application and submits that form to the sba. the sba then gives each application an sba loan number from the etrans system with that number that is sent back to the bank, the sba says the banks have the delegated authority to make these loans. according to industry officials, more information is needed many small businesses say they have not received their funds as they say their banks are awaiting guidance from the sba as of sunday evening they said the sba had given out 100,000 sba loan numbers and given out $30 billion. it's unclear how much of that money has made its way to main street lenders
we did ask for a lump sum number of actual loans that have made their way into the hands of small business owners and that's information that we have not been able to get we'll certainly keep you posted. i can tell you a lot of small businesses we're hearing from are very concerned about that $350 billion running out this program is first come first served back over to you >> hey, real quick just one question because we keep hearing about it all weekend and it looks like bank of america has changed its policy i'm curious what other banks have done the same thing when the loan program first started on friday, there were a number of banks, including bank of america, who were not providing loans to people who did not have loans you could have had a checking account or some other kind of account but they wouldn't give you the loan bank of america has switched have others as well? >> reporter: andrew, i think that's going to continue to be a case-by-case basis we're hearing from small businesses that are working with community banks and haven't been running into those same issues
a lot of banks are still awaiting guidance from the sba we asked the administration about that last night. we were told, we can't comment on what the banks are looking for from the sba here. we don't quite have an answer here on the guidance that they may be waiting for, but i do think you're going to continue to see push back and lenders may wind up changing their tune. there are 2200 currently participating in the program per the senior administration official >> all right kate, thank you very much. rate rogers. for more on the small business loans, let's bring in our guest. rob nichols is the president and ceo of the american bankers association. the group is the voice of the $18 trillion banking industry. rob, good to see you today >> good morning, becky >> let's talk a little bit about what you've seen so far. on friday there were a lot of complaints i saw one story that was headlined, thousands of applications, zero loans how has that played out over the weekend? what do you think is the state
of the situation that's going to be today >> so clearly there was a little bit of choppiness on friday. we acknowledge that. i think some of that has to be the result of the fact we're standing up this massive program, the scale of which we haven't seen you know, kate's numbers that she just articulated were really important. over the weekend, considerable amount of work has been done here, becky, a considerable amount of work we were on with the treasury and the sba throughout the weekend surfacing issues, making sure they understand what we're trying to get fixed. they're doing a great job admitting all of the challenge here, but, listen, you have 100,000 loans that the sba has processed in essentially one business day that's remarkable. that's $30 billion that is the -- essentially the amount of sba lending that the sba did in 2019, that they did in a day so the -- yes, there was a couple of choppy issues but i'll
tell you, lots of work has been getting done there are, as kate articulated, 2200 lenders in the program. as of friday the sba put out the new document to allow other banks, credit unions and fintech companies to become certified ppp participants it's in our interests -- banks are doing everything they can to serve their customers, clients and communities. it's critically important. i would note even before this program was put on the books, the banks have been doing that for weeks. i know the diamond letter articulated that community banks, mid-sized banks have been doing everything they can to ensure that the economic tale associated with this health care crisis is as minimal as we could make it. the banks are in a strong position in terms of capital and liquidity to help right now and be part of the solution and they're stepping up in incredible ways. >> rob, obviously this is kind of unprecedented to try to see a
program like this pulled off i can't imagine how many complications there are, how many difficulties there are in trying to pull it together at the same time, talking to small business owners here this weekend, for instance, the guy who owns the salon that i go to, he owns three salons he has applied for three different loans, two through the sba, one through new jersey. he said the process was pretty easy, getting the application in, because you have to go to the bank that you already use has not quite gotten the regulations in he's still waiting he's kind of holding in there, but we've been under lockdown for i think 24 days now in the state of new jersey so he hasn't seen any new business come in over that period of time he's got staff that he's concerned about. all kinds of other bills to pay. how quickly in reality do you think people are going to be seeing this money? how quickly will the relief actually kick in >> i think you're going to see it happening very quickly, becky. of course, banks are floating this money so when the borrower comes into the bank, the bank is
floating the money and we talked to bankers all weekend long at small, medium and large banks who are processing the loans, putting money out the door critically in the hands of the small business women and men who to your point need it so badly that's why the sba is working with thebacking sector to ramp this thing up so quickly and to get the 350 billion out the door into the hands of the small business women and men who to your point desperately need it it's in our interests to get this program as quickly as we can up and running as fast as we can. you have to remember, we're just 72 hours into a massive program, but i'll tell ya, over the weekend a lot of kinks were smoothed out, which is exciting, and i think you'll see that over the next couple of days, money getting into the hands of the small businesses. >> rob, we're out of time so i need a quick answer. what is the biggest concern from the banks? they are the ones fronting the money. they want to make sure they're going to get paid back and not blamed for things?
>> no. well, certainly there's liability provisions we want to make sure we're not blamed for doing exactly what the government is doing. around kyc issues, we're working on that as well, but i will say that sba treasury throughout the entire weekend did a very good job answering all of these questions, many of these questions so we can get this money quickly into the marketplace. that is the goal of the banks. they're doing everything they can to help their customers and clients right now and so, again, lots of progress is being made more to do but this program is ramping up considerably, becky. literally as we speak. >> all right rob, thank you for your time rob nichols. joe? >> thanks, beck. coming up, grubhub isn't delivering just for restaurants, it's delivering to restaurants in the form of a donation. ceo matt malone will join us after the break. check on the futures which are kind of static up about 800
just below that at this point. "squawk box" coming right back don't forget to subscribe to our podcast. you'll get interviews, original content, behind-the-scenes access look for us on apple podcasts or on your favorite podcast app and subscribe to sawpotoy.quk d da people know aflac... aflac! ...but not what they do. so we're answering their questions. aflac is auto insurance, right? no. uh uh. is it homeowner's insurance? no... uhuhuhuh! is it duck insurance? nope. ahhh! do they pay me money directly when i get sick or injured? yeah. aflac! you got it. you know aflac! boom! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover.
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welcome back to "squawk box. grubhub saying it will donate $30 million of its capital to restaurants during this time of crisis that's $250 to each restaurant joining us to talk about it is matt maloney, ceo of grubhub matt, how much of a difference is $250 to a restaurant going to make >> doesn't sound like a lot, but it's going to be a huge difference we're looking at like a stimulus almost because the way we're rolling it out is a consumer gets $10 if they spend $30 our $30 million is going to transform into $100 million of food sales to restaurants across the country. that's a big slug when everyone, i heard your last segment, everyone is working hard to put money in the hands of small businesses >> what percentage of restaurants are still online and on board right now what percentage are off? do you think you can even shift that or change that or do you think once you're off, you're off? >> we're trying really hard.
so it depends on the market. what we saw is an early covid west coast markets you'd see a dramatic dip in restaurants that went off the platform and they're now starting to come back on. you have new york, detroit that are in the throes of the crisis right now. they're peaking at about 30% of the restaurants are off, but remember you're having thousands and thousands of restaurants coming on the platform for the first time so we're seeing about the same number in terms of net but it's just a transition >> and what's the experience of trying to on board or even keep your delivery people working right now? >> it's incredible i mean, you hear everyone has these crisis stories our teams are working around the clock. we tripled our most on boarding month ever of restaurants. we had 15,000 restaurants go live in march and we're probably going todo more in april it's just an incredible
intensity of need right now for restaurants so we're doing everything we can to help them and with drivers, we launched contract free pickup or dropoff. we just launched curbside pickup for the drivers to make sure there's two layers of protection and no contact to make sure we help >> hey, matt, i've got a bit of a tough question because i was looking online and hearing people talking about it. there are some drivers who say i don't make enough money doing this full time i'm actually better on unemployment insurance right now given what's taking place. >> you know, there's plenty of work on grub i know there's lots of work on other delivery platforms as well we have our own stimulus for our drivers if they get impacted directly by covid. we're paying them. i know other platforms are of course, the c.a.r.e.s. act also came through with a lot of relief for gig workers everyone is trying to help the restaurants, drivers, everyone
impacted through this economic and health care crisis >> all right hey, matt, just think a little longer term out for all of us because we're all trying to understand what the expectations are. i'm curious, inside the meetings you're having, when you're looking at the other side of this, it may be a month or two depending how you think about this, there's other people who think this is going to be a terrible restructuring bankruptcy situation that goes on for months and months if not a year where are you in that in terms of what happens to the restaurant industry? >> wow that's a big one i am hoping for the best i think that the fundamental economics of our society are still intact i think there is a lot of demand right now for restaurants. if we can help restaurants get through the next few weeks or months depending how bad this is, they will come back. they will be there for our communities. if they can't, then that's going to be a real problem, but as
what we're seeing right now, once the crisis bottoms out in the market, it does -- growth does start to come back in that local area what we're seeing is crises around the country in different markets at different times so we're trying to dynamically manage that situation on the ground >> okay. matt, we wish you lots of luck stay healthy and safe out there. we appreciate you joining us as always and look forward to talking to you soon. becky, over to you. >> thank you, andrew. thank you. when we come back, the mortgage market could be on the brink of collapse with borrowers pouring into the government bailout claiming hardships we have that story next. in the meantime, as we head to a break, let's take a look at this morning's pre-market winners and losers for the dow a lot more winners than losers we're up by almost 800 points now. stick around, you are watching "squawk bo ocnx"n bc gives us confidence...ya ...so we can spend a bit today, knowing we're prepared for tomorrow.
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welcome back, everybody. the mortgage market could be on the brink of a collapse. diane no olick joins us right now. she's got that story diana, this is pretty concerning what are you hearing >> reporter: absolutely, becky on saturday a group sent a plea to federal regulators for desperately needed cash. request for borrowers are flooding in at an alarming rate. they are granting the monthly payment deferrals with no questions asked as required, but the servicers still have to pay the mortgage bond holders. the coalition headed by the mortgage bankers association said the scale of this forbearance program could not have been foreseen by mortgage servicers or fully anticipated by regulators.
it is therefore incumbent to provide a liquidity facility for single family and multi-family servicers. any further delay could cause a problem. i spoke to mr. cooper. it alone has already granted over 80,000 forbearances and there are more coming in gray helped regulators to set up the plan and was told there would be federal cash for servicers but that never made it into the final act he said without it, quote, there is going to be complete chaos. servicers will go under leaving even more borrowers in the lurch. dave stevens who headed the fha during the sub prime crisis and was a former head of the mba said they should have had to show this and this is a crisis so easily correctible. the administration made a huge
mistake bringing moral hazard in and thrust extraordinary risk into the private sector that could collapse the mortgage market stevens and gray say it is already much harder for borrowers to get new loans or refinance the old loans because of the risk suddenly hitting the mortgage market. back to you guys. >> diana, this is a huge issue i mean, i think what we're talking about, it makes a lot of sense to say people who have just lost their jobs because of the coronavirus and the economic shutdown resulting from that shouldn't have to pay immediately, they should get a pause where you can say, okay, we're not going to pay we'll pick up with the payments as soon as everything comes back to normal. you have to keep following that up the chain of command, up the food chain to say who in the end ultimately has to bear the brund of this. it seems like the government is the ultimate backstop on every one of these same with small businesses, i don't have any money so i can't pay my rent and the reet says they need to get bailed out too.
i don't know how you put enough money around this. the federal government is going to be the only backstop on all of this when they are issuing the order saying the state should be shut down. >> reporter: right the system needs to keep on going. even jay gray said he didn't disagree he set up the plan for forbearance. he doesn't disagree. they should get the 3, 6, 9 months of payment holidays -- not holidays but they'll pay it at the end of the loan i asked mark calabria what fan any and freddie were going to do, why they weren't providing this liquidity if it goes more than one or two months, we might consider that how are you going to say that? borrowers are going to need this for several months more. he was saying he expected 2 million forbearances by may. mark zandi put that number at 25 million coming up over the next several months really, they are going to need the money coming in because you have to keep the mortgage system coming even if borrowers can't
pay. >> fannie and freddie have their own issues they said if this were to go on for more than 30 or 60 days and you saw more than 25% borrowers ask for any forbearance like, this they would be facing some big issues too. >> reporter: exactly that's why they need the liquidity facility they need the government to step in they are doing that with fha ginnie mae is providing the liquidity. that's not the bulk of the mortgage market. you have private label, not a huge part of the market, but it's going to be in trouble as well they need to start pumping money into the servicers so they can just keep the service going. >> diana olick thank you very much. >> andrew? >> okay. still to come on "squawk box" this morning,mohamed el erian is going to join us with his take on what investors can expect when wall street opens for business this week always great to hear his perspective on where things are. take a look at futures right now. we are in the green across the
board. let's show you where we are. dow looks like it would open up 818 points nasdaq opening up almost 300 points s&p 500 looking to open 100 points higher. stay tuned you're watching squawk on cnbc if the roads aren't cleared, people can't get anywhere. but no matter how crazy it gets, we know when and where to get to work. data on the ibm cloud helps us maintain 8,000 miles of roads across the country. it helps keep millions of our visitors and our own families safe. ♪ ♪ and sometimes, you can find yourself heading in a new direction. but when you're with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, there's nothing to stop you from moving forward. a partner who makes sure every step is clear, i am totally blind. and non-24 can throw my days and nights out of sync,
welcome back if you are just waking up this morning, check out the futures been up about 800 points for most of the morning. oil prices were down a little bit more than they are now down 3.5% at this point at 27 and change on wti. meantime, there's not been much to smile about these days when it comes to jobs data
as millions head to the unemployment lines but yesterday st. louis fed jim bullard said the economy is not in free fall steve liesman joins us now with his take on mr. bullard's comments and more. steve, what do you make of that? he's been positive and negative. he thinks there's a v shape in this, right? >> reporter: yeah. you know, that's sort of the consensus out there, andrew, that you have this very steep drop but it's followed by a reasonably strong rebound, though there is some debate about that we re-tallied our averages and what's happened is most of the consensus, it's moved towards the worst case scenario in the second quarter and then a bounce back let me show you the numbers we've compiled over the weekend after that terrible jobs report. the first thing that's happened is everybody agrees the first quarter, which was going to be positive, now is a negative, minus 5%
that's the consensus view. seven forecasters including in this poll. 27% decline. we had the eye-popping numbers 25, 30 for a couple of folks everybody is on board with this idea that once you layer in the stimulus, which is important here, and then you count what's left in terms of the losses, would have about a 30%, call it, decline in economic activity that's followed by a 14% rebound and a 10% in the fourth quarter and then again above trend so it's not exactly a v. it's kind of call it a modified v which is a faux term by the way. you have this bounce back in the third quarter, fourth quarter and first quarter, but it's not necessarily a short. oxford economics went back and studied other kinds of shocks to the system they wrote in their study the coronavirus may trigger annual gdp declines the worst seen in
years. we know that economies can bounce back sharply after such declines, but our analysis suggests output losses also endure in a significant number of cases. depends on the kind of shock that's out there as to whether or not you get the bounce back also critical is the assistance that we get or that the government does provide. very critical to outcomes and goldman sachs says, you know what, we're going to need more further fiscal support for the economy looks likely to be needed the measures enacted to date, while substantial, are not yet equal to the lost income due to the covid-19 john riding over the weekend, there are some holes, particularly the biggest hole pointed out by goldman is the assistance from the federal government to the states when you figure what's been lost, you figure the government keeps paying that can only be true if the federal government helps the states so that might be, andrew, the next area of assistance. >> hey, steve, the big question i'd ask is the time wlien that
these economists are using when we hear them talking about a v or modified v, whatever you want to describe it as, is the view when you hear from them, at least on our show, they often talk about the world coming back online in june or even may what i don't understand, when you hear from dr. scott gottleib or other health officials, sure, we may be back at some kind of modified work coming back online then, but we'll all be wearing gloves we'll be wearing masks we're not going to be getting on airplanes. we're not going to be eating at restaurants. we're not going to hotels. not going to be bellying up to the bars not walking into a bookstore goi not going to be going to sporting events. all of those things that happened by the way, he's suggesting that may not happen through the fall, not just the summer but through the fall and potentially even
into the winter. i asked him about whether getting on a plane to go visit family at thanksgiving. >> reporter: yeah. >> is that baked in? >> reporter: no. no, andrew let me be clear about the trajectory of this the economists are not leading the epidemiologists on this. they know that would be stupid they're following. what's happened is a decline in the outlook relative to increases in the forecast of the severity of the disease, the contagion of disease and the length of the shutdown so right now they're baking in this idea that by the third quarter america gets back to work and you would have a fairly powerful rebound in gdp if that happens, however, if all the things -- i mean, look, who would i rather listen to jp morgan and those guys are very smart i'd listen to scott gottleib over mike ferroli. no disrespect tomike ferroli
they're following this outlook and it may be, andrew, what we get is a second downgrade to the thirteenth third quarter if the shutdown lasts longer. >> i want to talk to mohamed now. it's just how much the market is able to discount things and whether it is all knowing and if it's really nine months, that would put us in on the other side of even the most pessimistic forecasts which we keep hearing about endlessly at this point let me bring in mohamed el erian. mohamed, we had that bounce back, not last week but the week before, and then we had last week's move down, which it was down about 2.5%. in your view, we're going to continue to have this grind lower because the market can't anticipate a lot of the fundamentals and unknowns that are still going to happen with the coronavirus and with the pandemic so i'm wondering whether you still feel that way or whether
you'd look at last week as constructive because everybody, watching the task force, we knew this was going to be the worst week ever. the market managed to go down 2.5% and it's getting back some 4% today are you still of the opinion that we continue to grind lower to the old lows and then set some new lows? or are you feeling better this morning? >> so, a, i am feeling better. qualified. let me explain why i'm feeling better because i think it's really important we're having a bounce on medical issues, not on policy issues, not on technical, on medical that's important for two reasons, joe first, it's about people fewer people dying, getting affected secondly, i've always said it's a medical solution that forms a bottom to this market. the second reason that is positive, you see the affinity of this market to get ahead of what the economists are saying just as you discussed with
steve. the big issue i have is this is a bright spot in an otherwise still gloomy picture i also listened to scott this morning. and i think that we need more than just one spot so i still think that the overall paradigm is going to be likelast week, volatile around a downward trend it is not a sharp i that we had earlier. it is not a sharp i. sharper trend but still volatile last week we had three days down, two days up. that's the sort of thing we're going to have, one day up, one day down one day up, one day down >> okay. there's a lot to unpack there, mohamed. we go back and forth personally on things, and i -- you know, we have our disagreements i say you're like all of these bond guys that are too p pessimistic for too long lacker, gross, any of these bond guys they're just -- i don't know
it's a dismal science. so the next question that i have for you, what i asked mark cram. so we're about -- from the previous lows, which were down 37%, we're probably -- we'd need to sell off 10, 12%, and if it really gets bad and we get one of those 50% breaks that we saw in the really horrific bear markets that we've seen in the past, that would be still time to sell right now. if we're going back to the lows of 37% and then another 13% lower to down 50, i think you should be -- if you really feel that way, i think you should be telling people to sell i don't think you should continue to say we're going to grind lower and don't sell i don't think you can have it both ways. either you need to sell or start buying back in >> so, joe, what you haven't embraced is what i said in the last two weeks, up in quality. up in quality has a sell side
and a buy side why up in quality? because there's still potential for down side. so you don't want to be in the vulnerable names what are vulnerable names? the ones that are subject to massive balance sheet stress you want to sell those but you want to go up in quality -- >> now you get -- now you're splitting hairs. >> this is important. >> you're not really saying what you want to do, you're saying -- that was like the time -- there was a time when you were negative on u.s. bonds but you say, well, i participated with the bond market through -- in europe and everywhere else. >> joe, this is what investment is about. >> i know. that wasn't the question >> what you're trying -- this is really important because people should hear this >> okay. >> you want an easy go buy or sell no what every investor will tell you is that you revisit your portfolio on a daily basis and you are making sure that it can withstand the uncertainty out there. that's all that's what you do because no one is for sure so you want a repayment plan --
>> that's what i mean. >> -- you want to protect against the town side. >> right where i have a problem with thinking that maybe this gets a lot worse is that -- and it very well might, but we can -- i have the same fears of the pandemic and of whether the economy can reopen of everyone, but i just don't know if i feel like the real big players in the market are just totally checked out in terms of knowing how it's going to happen. when you say this could get worse, it can go to rolling into other cities and it can get worse there, all the -- i think that that's kind of out there already. >> no. i think what's out there is understanding that this could be severe and this could be durable, okay? that's out there and you've seen how much the economist's projections have changed. it wasn't so long ago that we were talking about a v coming down the first quarter and going down the first quarter so that has changed. we understood now that this is a
severe shock what we haven't yet internalized, and we will, is that the restart isn't like flicking on a switch and, two, it's going to be a different landscape. that is what -- that's where the uncertainty is is when -- how do we restart this economy and what does it look like when we restart it >> but, mohamed, you also said -- well, yeah, i'm a little more positive because it's a medical issue. you could have anticipated that maybe some of the social distancing was going to flatten the curve. you could have anticipated maybe in europe italy was going to start looking better you could anticipate we're going to have positive vac seen news people are rushing to develop therapeutic. gilead ramping up remdesivir you can almost assume what i was saying is necessity is the mother of invention so it shouldn't be a huge shock to you
that something medical comes along and is positive instead of assuming that all the next data points are going to be negative, which drives us even further lower. >> joe, we should welcome it's happening this early we should welcome it that it reinforces that we collectively contribute to this through social distancing, that is the main message to this i would like to see it establish day after day after day and hopefully this is not just going to be one day. that's all i'm saying. but i listen to scott -- you listen to scott and others those are the professionals. we're not the medical professionals, joe >> no, i know that and scott -- scott has his own opinion and we get comments on whether scott -- scott at times is a realist, all right? and i -- and i listen to everything he says and i try to listen to everything that i'm seeing everywhere, but in the end i guess, you know, we're all hoping for a good outcome sooner rather than later and there's --
you know, it's just the way you can look at everything i'm not saying it's not to be a real list, but i don't -- not everything necessarily like i say, bond guys, they're just -- you're always depressed about something. anyway, that's why -- people buy your bonds and you're happy. >> joe, i would buy it better as a jets fan you're always depressed about something. >> sooner or later we're all dead anyway. if you want to be depressed, we can be thank you, mohamed >> thank you. >> appreciate that let me see if this is my tease coming up. no, it's not, it's becky's. >> it's me it is. i'm not sure you knew. thank you, joe. when we come back, the ceo of one of the largest real estate developers in the nation is coming back to discuss the impact of covid-19 on the market as we head to break, take a look at the pictures of a quiet times square in new york city. kind of amazing to think this is
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hearing, how many tenants, residential or commercial are calling up saying i can't pay the rent this month. >> good morning, andrew. how are you? >> great to talk to you. >> it's been interesting times as you can imagine, we were all waiting for april 1st to see what happened. i actually think the results have been pretty good so far we own assets, residential, commercial, retail and obviously it's different across the asset classes. on the residential side we wound up collecting so far it's only a couple days in about 88% of the rent that was due on the commercial side about 95%. obviously our hotels are closed and not producing any revenue and on the retail side, about 26% of our tenants have paid so far. i think the important thing here is corporations on the corporate side, on the retail side, those companies that have capability, haveuidity, have a strong
balance sheet, i think they need to pay the rent. the same goes on the residential side we have tenants that still -- many of our tenants still have jobs and have not been directly impacted financially it's their obligation to pay their rent on the other hand, some people have lost their jobs and it's our obligation to work with them i ultimately think that's how this is going to play out through the system i think what's not okay is when you have large companies, whether it's retail or corporate, that suddenly send blanket letters to their landlords and say, we're not going to pay the rent. you know, there's an instance you have a blue chip law firm that charges $1,000 an hour in good times has been very profitable and they suddenly decide that they don't want to pay their rent i don't think that's okay right now. it's a whole ecosystem the people that can pay, need to pay. landlords need to help out those that can and then the banks need
to help out the landlords for the people who can't pay. >> let me ask you because you've raised something that i have heard anecdotally about companies trying to take advantage of this situation, those that are in a position to pay that aren't. how much of that are you seeing right now? >> well, look, i mean, you have -- take the retail industry, which is obviously been one of the hardest hit. malls are closed for us at hudson yards our retail center is closed, time warner center all closed i think -- we have a mix there of startup companies and restaurants that have been really hurt by what's happened and are struggle being they're going to have a tough time paying their rent we're going to work with them. we're going to help them figure out a payment plan or whatever needs to get done and hopefully our lenders and partners will
work with us so that we can accommodate them on the other side, you have very strong tenants, not just in our centers but across the board, nike, t.j. max, burlington they need to pay this is society's issue. everybody's going to get hurt a little bit those that can pay need to pay you know, actually, there was an interesting -- >> can i -- >> there was an interesting -- >> can i ask you though, any of the companies that you just mentioned, have they sent you letters saying they don't want to pay >> some of those tenants have sent letters to their landlords. >> that's fascinating. >> in germany adidas sent a letter to all their landlords and ultimately there was a public shaming of adidas and they retracted the letters and they paid their rent and i think that -- i think that's what we have to be careful of today this is not an excuse for people to not pay rent. >> longer term, just real quick,
how concerned are you about how long this goes on for? are you thinking about june, july, and august and thinking that people are going to be back in hudson yards, going to sweet green, doing retail shopping or are you thinking that's pushed off much farther we keep hearing differing accounts from health experts and other people. >> right i've been watching your show the last hour or so, and it's really everything you're talking about. i think it's going to be a phase in back to normalcy. i don't think they're going to turn a switch and everybody is going to show up in the restaurants and retail i ultimately think people will go back to work. i think people are feeling cooped up and want to get back home -- back to work zoom only works so well, and it's hard to do your business over webex and zoom. so i think people are looking forward to getting back to the office, and i think there will be precautions
some of the things we did at hudson yards early on i actually think are going to become more common place you can enter our buildings preapproved through security you don't need to interact with somebody you clear our turn styles by waiving your hand. you can press the elevator button on your iphone instead of touching anything, and i think more of those technological solutions will become common place in the industry. >> right and, jeff, we also want to thank you for this phone call but want to thank you for the work you're doing to help new yorkers. we just put up on the screen some of the relief efforts that you guys have undertaken, and it's important because you're getting food out to those on the front line and we are grateful for that thank you so very much for joining us and i hope we can continue this conversation in the future because you are on the front lines of so much of it thank you. coming up, senator tom cotton joins us on the potential for a phase 4 coronavirus relief package and probably a whole lot
world producers is delayed, but the head of russia's sovereign well fund says that his country is very, very close to a deal on production cuts with saudi arabia. how much moremoney will everyday americans, medical researchers and businesses need to weather this crisis we're going to speak with two u.s. senators this hour. tom cotton of arkansas on the multi-trillion dollar response so far and florida's marco rubio on this weekend's rollout of the $350 billion small business relief program final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a quick look at futures this morning we are in the green as becky said in a big way. dow up 786 points. s&p 500 looking to open 95 points higher. nasdaq looking to open 289
points higher. let's show you treasury yields right now. the 10-year note stands at .656. joe? >> thanks, andrew. it really is literally 15 seconds. i didn't think i was on. i just was checking. it's a beautiful day i happened to turn around. it looked like it would be nice. i caught myself looking up in the monitor that happens a lot it's good not to do any weird things because you have no idea that it's going to come up, the k delay is so long signs in the fight against the coronavirus. new cases in spain, italy and france showed some signs of slowing though the death toll is still rising here in the u.s. the trump administration voiced some cautious hope that the outbreak could be leveling off. >> we are beginning to see the glimmers of progress the experts will tell me not to jump to any conclusions, and i'm
not, but like your president, i'm an optimistic person i'm hopeful. the truth is we're starting to see cases. most importantly, losses and hospitalizations begin to stabilize. >> all right joining us now to talk about the vai russ and the government's efforts to support u.s. businesses, senator tom cotton of arkansas. he serves as a member of the banking, intelligence and armed services committees. senator, it's great to have you on this morning. phase 3 is going to accomplish certain things are you of the mand that we are going to need some additional stimulus and maybe even an infrastructure plan as the president's proposed >> good morning. it's good to be on with y'all. the money from our phase 3 legislation, the c.a.r.e.s. act is beginning to reach small businesses next week individuals are going to start receiving their checks from the i.r.s. or from the social security administration
unemployment insurance obviously has already been increased for the 10 million people who tragically lost their job over the last two weeks what i think i can say is that if that money runs out and we're still at the peak of this crisis and the american people can be confident that congress will act to ensure that our small businesses have the life line they need to get through, that families can continue to put food on the table and keep a roof over the kids' head, what i don't think we'll see is extraneous measures in any future legislation as was attempted in the last bill we need to stay focused on what is necessary to get us through this crisis and ultimately what is necessary to respond to some of the problems that have surfaced by this crisis like our dependency on china for pharmaceuticals and medical devic devices. that's the kind of thing i think you'll see in future legislation. >> it's very complex and there's a lot of different moving parts in terms of dealing with the
virus and then -- that's very, very complex there's all types of variables in terms of therapeutics, vaccines, how long we need to social distance and a rolling wave across the country and then the fall comes, but then there's also reopening the economy and when it's going to be possible to even come close to returning to some sense of normal and how many businesses it seems like are going to be permanently affected are you optimistic that life can return to normal even in 2020, senator? because that's the kind of worries that, you know, we have about the economy, not just the pandemic >> sure. we have to get people back to work and the economy has to get back on its feet we have to realize it's tightly connected to the virus that's spread, the perception of safety among our people for instance, not that many governors or mayors really shut
down parts of the economy. what they were doing was reflecting the american people's understandable concerns about contracting this virus so we can't just say, open it back up, and then expect people to go back to restaurants, bars, movie theaters, what have you. we have to arrest the spread of the virus. we also have to develop steps so people can have confidence when they go back to work that's one of the reasons why the cdc has issued guidance to wear masks why it's so important to get tests to be done so rapidly and tests in the workplace as well that our state and local governments develop the capacity to identify guaranteed persons with the coronavirus and trace their contacts so we can move from the population based measures to case-based measures. those are the ways we arrest the virus and get people confident to go back to work or retail spaces and so forth. that's what it will take to get the economy back up on its feet
and get people back to work again. >> senator, you've been very outspoken in criticism of china, and i'm just leading into a question about the political divide in the country. and it's not -- it's too simplist simplistic, but there's one side that blames china. the other side blames the government's response to the virus as far as not being present. do you think that matters to get into the -- do you think it matters to get into that at this point? is it self-defeating or is it counter productive to what we're trying to do, for one or the other case harping on china and the other the response of the trump administration >> in fact, if you look at opinion surveys, you see the american people do blame china that's where the blame belongs it's not just here in the united states, it's all around the world. this could have been a local health problem of wuhan. instead it's a global pandemic
there's no doubt they could have done some things differently they're adjusting every single day. but what we have to keep in mind, that it was the lies and corruption of the chinese communist party that helped turn this virus into a global pandemic and our dependency on chinese communists for things like masks, other medical devices and basic pharmaceuticals is a grave threat to our health and our safety it's something that we have to change right away. >> if we don't find either a therapeutic or a vaccine between now and let's say the fall, how do you expect to reopen large parts of the country or of the economy? >> so far i'm pretty optimistic that we can, at least find therapeutics, because we have all of the world's best minds in life sciences, biology and medicine working on that i called in january when i first began to study this virus for a
manhattan project level effort, and that's exactly what you see around the world in the meantime, as the measures we're taking help arrest the spread of it, we need to start taking individual steps that can help people get back out into businesses, into the workplace, get back into retail establishments things like wearing masks, like maintaining social distance. like opening up different parts of the economy or the country on a rolling gradual calibrated basis. what's good for new york city is not good for kansas city, not good for star city, arkansas there may be some businesses where people can maintain more distance in the workplace and open up. there may be some parts that can open up more quickly as well those are the kinds of things that can be done primarily by our governors, mayors and counties and recognition of the federal government it won't be a one size fits all decision, it has to be calibrated, gradual and fit to local commissions. i think when you have that mix of effort, then you can see
people begin to get back to work, get back out to retail establishments, see the economy get back to its feet until we have ultimately not just therapeutics but an effective vaccine. >> i wonder whether we can look at what happened in china and how quickly they reopened and whether we can trust that they were able to reopen without, you know -- without the virus popping up a lot of different places and causing a lot more death or whether we can't trust those numbers. if we took it on face value, it looks like we can handle this. if those urns are holding thousands of bodies we don't know about, then i guess we can't trust that i guess that highlights the problem. >> yeah. well, of course you can't trust the chinese communist party for that data. many multiples of people have probably died, contracted this virus. one example, besides the urns,
they shut down movie theaters again after having opened them up that's not the sign of a government that thinks it has a pandemic under control you can look at other places that had done a pretty effective job of containing the virus like singapore which has recently seen a surge in cases again. it's important to be mindful that as we see cases begin to come down, hopefully deaths begin to decline, we still have to take some cases as full people but also individually to make sure that we don't see new sparks of the virus coming back because as the president said last weekend, the worst thing would be to declare victory over the virus before we have actually won the victory. >> right wlrt, senator. thank you. and. >> thank you. >> we hope we can have you back on in the near future. thank you very much, senator tom cotton becky. >> thank you, joe. when we come back, a live update on the state of u.s. air lines as they await billions of dollars from the government and travel demand craters. then a special interview with
former ford ceo mark fields on what it will take to revive the auto industry once this outbreak ends. and we'll speak to florida senator marco rubio getting aid to u.s. firms in need. a new $350 billion program rolled out on friday but a top banking group warned of significant technology issues over the weekend we'll have more on that front. as we head to a break, let's take a check on the futures. dow up by 744 points indicated up 10 year yielding 0.65% stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc
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this morning the futures right now are in the green. dow would open close to 60 points right now nasdaq looks like it would open up 280 points. the s&p 500 looking to open 92 points higher. we have more evidence over the weekend of the toll that the coronavirus is taking on major u.s. air lines as you might imagine. carriers further cutting flights into new york city phil lebeau joins us with the latest on that phil >> reporter: andrew, because of the pressure on the carriers, specifically on their bottom line, you've got a lot of investors taking a look at the market pre-market. they're not too optimistic from what we might hear from the treasury department about specific amounts they're going to get in the 25 billion in immediate cash grants. let's talk about specific airlines that will be in focus today. united announcing that it's going to be cutting 90% of its schedule into new york, laguardia as well as its hub in newark you think that's bad, take a look atamerican airline.
its daily flight schedule going from 271 daily flights down to 13 also jpmorgan out with a note today, it is downgrading american and pulling the price target given a lot of the uncertainties swirling around the airline. finally, there's boeing. the company because of health concerns issued by the state and local authorities out in seattle area saying, look, because of coronavirus, they have decided they're going to be suspending production out in that area indefinitely that's the story in aviation and airlines let's shift gears right now and talk about the auto industry have you seen these pictures this is gm ceo marry barra she was at a warren, michigan, facility where they're going to be making facemasks. they're ramping up their production this week expected to deliver 20,000 by wednesday. gm is still working on getting the ventilator facility at an engine plant in coco mow,
indiana. also the same situation with ford as it works with ge health care developing ventilators, we'll see that production ramp up here in the next week, week and a half they hope to deliver 1500 by the end of april a lot happening not only in airlines but also with the auto industry guys, back to you. >> all right, phil thank you very much. for more on the auto industry, let's bring in a voice we know well mark fields is former president and ceo of ford. he's also currently a senior advisor at tpg capital great to see you thank you for joining us today. >> thanks, becky great to see you. >> let's talk a little bit about what the big three are facing at this point march was a huge disaster in terms of sales you've got people being ordered to stay at home. that has to put massive pressure on sales and then you have what's happening on production lines, too. what's your take >> well, you saw this was all about consumer confidence right now. what started out as a supply chain issue when this virus started in china has now turned
into a full blown demand issue and so what you saw in march obviously with the shelter in place orders, the industry came in i think at about 11.4 million units. that's the lowest since i think july of 2010 when the industry was getting back on its feet and that's really just the consequence of surging unemployment obviously the decline in consumer confidence and the volatility in the stock market because the bottom line is, most folks that are buying new cars are more wealthy folks who happen to have brokerage accounts when you look at your brokerage account, your first instinct is to run for the liquor cabinet. the last thing you're thinking about is buying a car. >> we had steve liesman on a little earlier and he was talking about how economists are predicting a sharp v, maybe not a straight up v but a sharp rebound in economic activity i guess that depends on a lot of
different factors. the most obvious about how long the stay at home orders are issued and the coronavirus also as you pointed out, the coronavirus. what would your estimate be for what the recovery looks like for the auto sector? >> anybody that's giving you a forecast right now, you really can't rely too much on it because we don't know. it all comes down to our ability to manage and ultimately come up with a vaccine for this virus. but when you look back over the last five or six years, what has really driven the strength of the car market here in the u.s. and kept it over 17 million units are low interest rates, affordable interest rates, low unemployment and wage and income growth if you look at where we are today and going forward, you know, you will have very affordable interest rates. 0% can't get much more affordable than that. but until you start seeing the unemployment starting to come down as people come back to work and you start seeing some wage growth again, i think you'll see
that the car industry will need some impetus to get there. back in the great recession we partnered with the government for what was known as a cash for klunkers incentive to get older vehicles off the road. that provided the industry a very good bounce, although there was a bit of a payback when yo pull forward that kind of demand, but those type of things might be necessary to get the industry up and running. and to put it into perspective, phil was talking earlier about the airline industry the auto industry employs twice as many workers and as a percent of the gdp contributes much more than the airline industry. that nuts perspective how important this is to the american economy. >> do you think a bailout is going to be necessary for the automakers >> no, not necessarily i think when you look at the automakers, particularly here in the u.s., ford, gm, chrysler,
they're in much better financial health at ford we worked very hard to build a very strong balance sheet. they have plenty of liquidity that will, you know, literally allow them to function with five or six months without any production i don't think that will happen, but nonetheless, it's really about the supply base and about liquidity throughout the supply base and you have a very strong suppliers, but it's really the smaller, what they call tier 2 through tier 4 suppliers who are really going to come into a crunch right now they're living off the receivables that the automakers are paying them from past work when it comes time to bringing these production lines back up, they need to front the costs for bringing the workers back, paying for materials, paying for the logistics so i think in the next 30 to 60 days they're going to need some help. >> mark, the other question i get frequently asked is what
about the dealers themselves, that they have a lot of inventory that's going to be sitting around, a lot of them don't have the deep pockets that some of the big three have at this point what happens if some of those dealers go out of business, does that impact the big three further down the road? >> well, not necessarily the automakers are always looking at their dealer network. they're small businesses they're struggling with many businesses with the fact that the business has gone from 100 miles an hour to zero. they're very important and what you're going to see is these actions that the federal government has taken through the c.a.r.e.s. act will help them, but you are going to see some consolidation in the dealer industry debate. many are open for maintenance only because of servicing leapoe
vehicles, fire departments, ambulances, but they're under stress right now a lot of them are taking advantage of the c.a.r.e.s. act, but there will be some consolidation going forward. >> mark, thank you it's great to see you and we appreciate your time today >> thanks so much. >> joe coming up, florida senator marco rubio joins us to address the concerns from this weekend the government's big new small business relief program. tomorrow on "squawk box," don't miss an exclusive interview with sec chairman jay clayton futures have pulled back a little bit from the highs. just up over 700 ay tedstun, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc i know that every single
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welcome back to "squawk box. an automated blood test is coming to the u.s. for coronavirus. it can be used to detect immune response to the body's response. one of the benefits is it can identify candidates for plasma therapy. it's backed by the carlisle group. it produces hundreds of thousands of tests each week throughout april and it is ramping up production to half a million. approximately 150,000 tests can be processed in an hour. chris smith said the unprecedented nature of this rapidly spreading virus needed a response they are working to make their antibody test kit available to the areas with the greatest need we will be speaking with chris smith tomorrow morning but if, in fact, this test works, it could be a significant help in
the fight against this virus when we come back, we're going to speak to senator marco rubio on the government's new $350 billion small business aid program and how the senator's already saying businesses will need more cash as we head to a break, take a look at oil prices right now the chief executive of russia's wealth fund said they are very, very close to a production cut deal with saudi arabia wti ude crat 27.47 we're back with the senator in just a minute. you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today.
welcome back to "squawk box. on friday the government rolled out the new $350 billion small business relief program. we're hearing about applications and billions of dollars. but we got word this weekend of some pretty significant hiccups with the program joining us right now is senator marco rubio, chairman of the senate committee on small business and entrepreneurship. we thank you for joining us. senator, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> we've heard about a lot of applications going in on the good side but we've heard about a number of hiccups and more and
so i start with this in terms of where we are on the program itself, how would you grade the program as is given the feedback that you're hearing from small businesses around the country? >> well, as is, it can't be sustained. this is not the program we designed, but that's not the point. i think it's important to remember the law was passed a week ago friday. sba and treasury then had seven days literally to sort of try to stand it up and get it moving. so you're talking about something here that is $350 billion, no precedent, never been done before and you've got to create this massive program and its rules in six days and launch it. any time you do it that way, of course you're going to have some problems this is an emergency situation in an emergency situation there's going to be far less than perfect that said, i do believe that it will improve every day for a
number of reasons. first, treasury had to rewrite all of the rules of sba and they were way too confusing and didn't reflect the law we wrote. they didn't issue that until thursday night they got it thursday night they didn't have the forms there are issues that have emerged in terms of questions that are unanswered and the other is capacity. the sba has been, working through the weekend with amazon to improve the system the bankers use to interface with it those improvements will make a difference hopefully what we want to see is that the number of lenders in the system grows every day and the number of problems and issues with the program diminishes every single day. it will get better it has to get better >> senator, you just said there are some questions that need to be answered and that they will be answered. what are those questions in your mind >> well, a couple things number one is there's a requirement that they hold these loans for seven weeks on the books before they can sell them
so it's important for the fed to come forward with a facility that they're going to have in place for those banks and lenders that want to sell back to the fed or to the second dairy market so clarity on that is important there were additional guidance issued on friday that i think answer a lot of questions about eligibility, especially by the 501c3s there are remaining questions of eligibility, for example, payroll costs. when you calculate payroll does that include the employer obligations under payroll tax and fica that was the intent of the bill. the rules are unclear. so, again, the bankers and the lenders don't know how to calculate that questions like that that need to be answered. as they emerge, if sba and treasury can issue quick guidance and make that information known widespread, it begins to improve. >> senator, perhaps a singular question i get from small businesses i will ask to you, and i've asked it on this program to others before, which is what do you tell the small business owner who says, you know what, i don't know if i should take this loan.
i don't know if i should keep my employees on the payroll because as i look at this crisis and it rolling across the country and the spread of it, i'm not sure if i have a liquidity crisis or i actually will have a solvency crisis meaning, i think if this were to go on a month, maybe i'd be okay but if this goes on two or three months and i can't really reopen, i won't be okay and therefore i shouldn't be taking the loan what do you tell that person >> well, i could tell them that in many ways the whole country's in the same boat, right? no one knows when things are going to get back to a semblance of normal. i think the day will come when things will begin to reopen but we have to keep the social distance guidelines, the masks, things like that in place. i believe that's going to happen regionally some areas before others but no one knows we are truly in unchartered territory, but we've never been here before. no one's ever been here before so it's difficult to predict how this ends, when it ends, how long it's going to take to get there.
i sympathize with those feelings, i really do. all we tried to do with this bill is say this is a si6, 8, 12 week advance how can we keep the employee attached to the employer and give you the best chance to restart when the moment comes. that amount of uncertainty, believe me, it's the thing everyone is grappling from on everything from business to government to our personal lives. and i sympathize with it and i think ultimately we all want that answer and i guess the best answer i can give is it kind of depends on us, on how good we are as a people and keep -- in flattening that curve on the infection rate while government and others help build the capacity of the health care. >> senator, we've had a number of guests on this morning and a report from diana olick talking about the mortgage market, how that's in real trouble at this point because there are so many people looking for forbearance that it's put a lot of pressure on the mortgage servicers. you can say the same thing in
real estate industries when small businesses are saying, wait, i need not to pay the rent this month or let's say tenants who say i can't pay my rent for this month either, just even in a person it kind of moves up the line who should be responsible for paying some of these snings the mortgage servicers the reets on the other hand? is there going to be a big backstop that eventually takes care of all of this, the buck getting passed up the chain of command? what do you think? >> well, i mean, the first thing, the fed did announce two weeks ago that they were going to create some sort of facility to help clear some of this off the books so we wouldn't have this issue with lenders and those who hold the mortgages, but that won't be enough look, there's contagion here now on the virus and the economic side you hit the point critical i don't claim it's enough, but it's why we made it 250% of payroll and allowed rent and lease payments to be part of what a forgivable expense would be, because we didn't want to
see that contagion into the real estate sector and the landlords. that's not enough. you're absolutely right. i'm hearing from people that run whether it's a little strip mall or big commercial entity that even the big-name clients are calling saying, we're not paying this month and they're panicking over that. you can just imagine so you're absolutely right, that is an issue that's going to have to be confronted here. what we did a couple weeks ago was an emergency sort of move to deal with the crisis in fronts of us, but i believe congress is going to have to go back and in some way, hap or form and address additional things that have emerged since then. that includes, by the way, replenishing the fund on the small business loan program. i believe those funds given the demand will not reach june 30th. >> senator, that's where i wanted to go with you, which is to say if we do need more and if this does get extended, not necessarily that we're all going to be confined at home, but if, in fact, we go back to a sort of normal, we can go back to work
but we're wearing masks and gloves and we go to work but invariably i imagine we go pretty much straight home. we're not getting on airplanes, bellying up to the bar, all of those businesses are still going to struggle. if that goes on through the summer and into -- any time into the fall, you can see the economic carnage that it could create so my question is, what do you think the appetite is in washington what do you think the timing would be to turn on an additional specific gigot what would that look like? >> we have to divide it into two things the appetite is there. everyone i talked to in the senate recognizes we have to go back and do more and probably more than once number one is in the emergency response phase is there more we need to do to add on to what we did the last time? people talked about that that's almost a definite yes then there's the recovery phase of it. you can't get to the recovery phase until you have a full
damage assessment. i think before we get to the recovery phase on things like infrastructure, so forth, there's going to have to be work done on the first stage, with i is plussing up whatever we've already done and some additional things we might have missed because we had to move quickly the biggest challenge is logistical how do you get over 500 members back to washington to take a vote in the house and senate it would have to be structured and voted on unanimously in both chambers it will be difficult logistically to get everyone back there especially given the uptick in the infection rate in the d.c. area. >> that was my question, senator. now that you have so many senators and representatives who have gone back to their district, could it even be possible or do you think there's going to be the need for some sort of emergency measures to allow people to vote remotely? >> well, let me say that you can pass things in the senate without -- with only two people there. somebody presiding and someone making a motion on unanimous
consent for passage of a law you could do it. if you wanted to go back and add more money, you could pretty quickly do that with two people there. the house has similar procedures the question becomes in the senate, if one single senator objects, that becomes possible you would have to rely on all 100 senators to be cooperative that's not something i can guarantee because you have a unique cast of characters across the 100 people probably the only alternative we would have to making this happen the other question is within the funds that were authorized there are funds, for example, you're spending less than one part of the spending because you over anticipated it so you're able to move monies over, if there's enough executive direction, theoretically the more people that are on payroll because of the ppp, the less people are on unemployment again, that's theoretical. we have to get the program to
work >> senator, another question for you, which is at some point states and governors are going to have to make some decisions about re-opening and you're hearing some governors more ambitious or aggressive about reopening than others. do you think that this should be mandated by the states or do you think it should be mandated by the federal government in large part because one of the questions becomes the ability to reinfect if travel is open, we do live in an open society, what that ultimately means we've seen some governors be very fast off the mark, others much slower including in your own state. i'm curious where you land on that issue >> let me tell you that if we knew in mid january -- if everybody knew in mid january what the world would look like on april 6th. >> i think everyone would have reacted differently to that. i think every country has faced the same dilemma people don't want to inconvenience people and don't want to shut down the economy.
we can't change that we have to learn from it people have to be held accountable for it, but we can't change it. what would be unforgivable at this point is to make that mistake again and have a second wave of infection. the key to answering your question is do we have a system in place to rapidly test people, isolate those who are sick, quarantine those who have come in contact with contact tracing, have we built up our capacity so our hospitals don't get overwhelmed, have we developed therapeutics, anti-virals to keep people out of icu and off of ventilators those are things we have to work on now even as we're dealing with the crisis before us or we will have a second wave like you've just outlined i also think your question about regional versus national, i think the most important thing the regional government can do and federal government can do is provide broad, strong guidance and allow the states to implement them across all 50 states i do think this is the kind of thing where openings are going
to be in some ways geographically based here's the one thing that is clear, we won't say go back to the way things were march 31st immediately. even after we reopened, you'll see the six foot distancing, the little lines on the ground at cvs, walgreens, rite aid i think you're going to see restrictions on large gatherings for the foreseeable future we're going to go back to something. i don't think it's going to be business as usual. i think we're going to gradually build towards that until we get a vaccine never maybe get fully to that. >> senator rubio, we appreciate your time, your perspective and all of the work you're doing on behalf of small businesses i know it's not perfect yet, but i know everybody is trying their hardest. thank you so very much >> thanks for having me. >> joe, over to you. coming up, we're going to check in with jim cramer ahead of the opening bell and get you ready for the start of the trading week futures indicated up about 800,
just under that most recently. they've been all over. they almost got down to just 700, they were at 900 at one point. don't miss an exclusive interview a little bit later this morning with arvind krishna who takes over as ceo of ibm today. we'll be right back. a note to say you're on our mind. a willingness to come to you. the world and how we interact with each other is changing. but that will never change who we are at lexus. now, more than ever, you and your needs come first. find out what service options are available in your area at lexus.com/people first (vo) fthey're adapting to supporto their communities.s. but many need our help. if you're a small business in need, or want to help a local business, go to quickbooks.com/smallbusinesshelp intuit quickbooks.
breaking news on the small business loan program, and wilfred frost joins us on the news line with the details hey, wilf. >> reporter: hey, joe. good morning to you. we've got the latest number for applications received for bank of america it amounts to 10% of the entire amount allocated by congress, which is 350 billion they received applications from 177,000 small businesses that amounts to a total of $32.6 billion so far applications, of course, do not
mean dispersion of funds there are a number of holdups in the process. first, the bank receives the application. they have to submit it to the sba. the sba has to process that, get the banks the all important etrans approval number and then the banks need to go through some final internal points before they get the money out of the door to the client based on the conversations i've had, i don't believe they've disbursed cash to more than 100 or so loans. we're talking a handful despite the hundreds of thousands of applications received by the big banks across the board so far. a simple explanation for why this percentage of payouts to applications is relatively low and disappointing is that the system is just swamped and it's still too manual some have expressed optimism that by the middle or end of this week there will be more automated process and specifically some smaller banks,
i understand, are testing that automated process as we speak. that might be a bit of a game changer to get those percentages out. we wanted to quickly mention last night at wells fargo, they'll only end up doing $10 billion of ppp loans they said the fed's asset cap is limiting them from doing more. it adds pressure to act to relax that cap temporarily there are likely public callouts on that. on the flip side, wells fargo says they will be donating all fees generated by the ppp program to charitable causes related to small businesses. we'll have to see what that leads other banks, big banks to follow as well on that side, guys. >> all right, wilfred. wilfred frost, thanks for bringing us that info. let's get to -- oh, i love that head shot, wilf i don't even think you should come on live anymore if you can just always have that head shot. let me get to cnbc headquarters
where jim cramer joins us now. jim, i want to take your pulse it's a monday. mondays aren't great i know you don't like big -- >> no. >> -- futures moves that might not be warranted, but how are you feeling? >> i think we've become estranged cheerleaders for good news or bad news we get good news and if you dive below it's just means maybe fewer people are dying good news in new york, a few different -- let's just say better numbers about hospitalization and we start crying stocks. i wish there was more to it. how about how companies are doing, whether companies are able to go through this period and then again, when you dig down, retail suddenly got demand because of this? no restaurants got demand because of this? no i want to be a little more sensible i want to be a little more thinking about what happens because we're about to be in an earnings period andalso a sens of, come on. germany says unlimited credit.
maybe we should have unlimited credit figure out a way to do it. why didn't anyone think about what charlie sharp could do at wells fargo. he's talking about a limit wells fargo is the biggest lender jay powell should now take a look at what happened. he should come on our show and say, you know what, time to let fargo go a couple years ago, it was new management, new board, new chairman we won't let them be held up by us let's do that. people have to react to the news more in terms of being policymakers but not cheerleaders for stocks. there's a big green board i'm looking at now probably half the companies are doing more poorly than last week we should be more discerning and less likea big index fund. companies are not index funds. companies are living, breathing organisms that are doing well or badly. i think we should look at that or else we have to start selling the bad ones now this is the time to go by royal caribbean? maybe. maybe not.
>> jim, do you think now we -- what will dictate just sentiment? will it be how companies are doing or whether we don't max out on ventilators and we actually see that perhaps the worst-case scenario doesn't play out medically. if we can see that new york really -- that's always been the sickening feeling that we got, right? >> i'm still anti-viral. i'm anti-viral we get anti-viral, i think we get good news. dr. gottlieb had a great piece today in the "wall street journal. he's been a true beacon. no one can silence that guy. i've had my go-arounds with him about vaping, but he's been a total star right on about this he doesn't stand next to the president and say hey, you know, i'm here for the ride. if i get a chance to talk, i'll talk he just talks. what he says is right. that guy has been a real hero in this period. >> you don't like fauci anymore? >> no, i like fauci.
when the president says, hey, he said this 15 times, i think fauci should say i have to say it again i think he wants to be the guy who conquers it's awkward up there. awkward. >> all right thanks >> thank you >> all right when we come back, we'll take a little step back and try to bring you some much-needed context on what this country and what the world are going through as we fight this virus together. later this morning, don't miss an exclusive interview with former federal reserve chair janet yellen ti a100 m.asrnte me
. welcome back to "squawk box. apple's ceo, tim cook, said on twitter yesterday that the company has sourced more than 20 million masks and is working with governments to donate them where needed he also said that the company has designed face shields for health workers and is producing and shipping them to hospitals he said they pack flat, 100 per box, and can be assembled in less than two minutes. he showed them off online. they're plastic masks that health care workers can use. a lot of businesses trying to step up during these times another big story that wall street is talking about, wells fargo saying it's capping its participation in the u.s. government's small business coronavirus rescue program it's capping it at $10 billion. it says it is doing that due to regulatory constraints the federal reserve back in 2018 ordered wells fargo to keep assets below 1.$1.95 trillion
until it had improved governance and risk controls following that wave of sales practice scandals. this is a back and forth between the fed and wells fargo over this issue with the company effectively saying we have to cap it because you put these restrictions on us if you want us to loan people money, especially small businesses during this pandemic, you may have to change those restrictions that's a bit of the debate we're seeing now becky, over to you >> okay. thank you very much. you heard jim cramer talking about that, saying wells fargo should be released in the situation pointing out the new management team there and hoping they will see something like that the coronavirus pandemic is causing an economic and serious issues that we've been watching. people have been worried about all of these going through we've been watching the futures. right now it looks like the dow is indicated up quite a bit. up by 833 points last week was a down week for
the markets. the dow was down 2%. you saw declines for the other major averages dow was down 2.7%. the s&p was off by 2%. the nasdaq was down by 1.7%. we've been talking about the implications of this the pandemic causing economic and humanitarian crisis that's being felt on an emotional level across our families and workplaces, we'll do something different right now and talk about the mental and spiritual impact of what we're all going through right now. joining us right now for that is father jim martin, a jesuit priest, author of "america magazine" and father jim, thanks for being with us today. >> my pleasure >> we talk all the time about how this is a war against the coronavirus, you hear there are no atheists in fox moholes. do you think people are seeing
resurgence in spirituality >> people are asking how can god let this happen. i think it's a both/and situation spiritually. what are you hearing from people are more and more people seeking counsel from you >> there are it's mainly sadness at this point. there's panic, too i try to remind people that panic is not coming from god feelings of hope, calm and peace are. panic and terror are counterproductive. >> we are in holy week now for catholics and christians, and passover for jews is coming up in this time when people probably need it most, you find places of worship are closed because of the social distancing rules. you have some interesting ideas and advice you're giving people for lent you say instead of giving up something, they can do something
else what is that? >> right now it's being kind one way of being kind in addition to doing good things for your neighbors is to practice social distancing and stay home and not give other people the disease i think that's one of the most generous things you can do, take those precautions to prevent infecting other people >> what other advice would you give people now who are struggling whether that's with the fear of what's going on out there, if they lost their job, if they have a loved one who is sick or a loved one they lost because of this what are you telling people? >> if they're religious, it's looking for deeper meaning and remembering that god is with you through small acts of love that people show you. i think that, you know, one thing i'm telling people during holy week, we can see god's love in the way that jesus offered himself for people on good friday in the way doctors, nurses and health care workers are putting their bodies on the line for people. to see that generosity is one
way of god loving us >> father jim, want to thank you for your time today. we realize this is a bit different, but also realize people have all sorts of different questions because of what's happening with this >> thanks for inviting me on >> good talking to you folks, i hope you have a great rest of your week. we'll see you back here tomorrow morning. make sure you join us for that right now cnbc's special coverage continues good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla, jim cramer, david faber with you the coronavirus curve may be bending in some parts of the world. oil giving back some of last week's squeeze jim, the president this morning tweets light at the end of the tunnel but you are warning people against being cheerleaders for not a good reason. >> i just think th
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