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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  July 15, 2020 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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covid and interabouticting thaty we saw a tremendous opportunity to access additional capital as we grow and we have strong plans for the future this is another investor base to help us get there. >> clint, congratulations. 22% gain at the open clint jones, hope to have you back. >> thank you appreciate it. let's get to headquarters and "the half. thank you very much. welcome to "the halftime report," everybody a double dose of positive news sending stocks higher, the kind of news we could all use right now. optimism of two vaccine candidates fueling the bulls and pushing the reopen and let's travel again trade higher. the investment committee on this big wednesday is here.
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a lot to get to and discuss, everybody. right now, though, a quick check on the markets because they're higher across the board. the bottom right of the screen and come off the highs, the dow above 27,000 for the first time since june 10th on an intraday basis. s&p 500 less than 5% from its all-time highs up nearly 50% from the march lows. 28 members of that index hitting a new 52-week or all-time high and a cramer favorite stock, mccormick. the nasdaq is negative again there is a lot to discuss. joe, we are off the highs. you can address that but also this -- the vaccines plural getting all the attention as they should. it only concerns, you know, all of humanity. but did goldman sachs' numbers have anything to do with the earlier market strength? >> i think most of the early gains that we witnessed this morning you can credit to the
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vaccine optimism i do think, brian, that the strong performance from financials in the last couple of days, whether it be jpmorgan or a goldman sachs this morning, that has lended a little bit of desire to go back into some of the value names that had not been working previously but what we are dealing with today is very clearly the stay-at-home trade is the dominant trade for today. the -- rather the back to normal trade is the dominant trade. the stay-at-home trade is losing some of the momentum clearly in the marketplace and because of the significant market cap weighting in that stay-at-home trade, whether it be amazon or some of the other nasdaq high fliers, that's kind of pulling down the market here a little bit. do i think it's a dramatic reversal that began the other day? it's going to signal the end of
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that stay-at-home trade? no i don't believe that it is but i just think it's creating a scenario where because you have got the cruise lines and the leisure stocks and the casinos rising on the optimism of a back to normal you are seeing money reallocate and weighing on the stay-at-home nasdaq trade. >> that's it steven, two things to discuss. the reversal like monday on the headlines about the los angeles school districts closed. i haven't seen headlines like that maybe the market knows something i don't. we need to come up with i guess a new acronym. work from home work from office is this that rotation that joe was talking about? >> we have seen these mini rotations over the past few months where technology or growth stocks sort of take a breather, trade down a little
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bit and so-called value stocks pick up the slack but i'll continue to suggest that value is a misnomer for those names. i don't see value in airlines, in hotels, in restaurants, in industrials. the economy is punk. that's the only way to say it. it won't come back for quite sometime and there's no value in an airline that's completely upside down financially and is not seeing anybody on board. as they travel so their costs are going to kill them now, in terms of the overall market, look we are in a trading range, continue to be in a trading range. we hit the upper end of it and now pulling back i think today's action, the selloff contribute to pompeo's comments of china and the increasing dialogue that's really turning antagonistic with china, one of our largest trading partners and will continue and what we saw with
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the vaccine is that it's covered up some of those problems, some of those headlines and that's the reality. i think you still got to be cautious and not advocating taking major exposure off. i'm finding opportunity in other names to balance out the portfolio but we are in trade range. period that's the end of it technology growth will come back value's not sustainable here at these levels. >> these are good points, brenda we talked for two years about a trade war pre-covid. that's kind of still going on. we have u.s. military assets moving to the south china sea because we don't like what they're doing with oil and gas there, as well there are a lot of underlying problems that may or may not have anything to do with covid. >> that's right although i will say i think covid still remains the biggest risk here in the market, especially risk to our overall economy. in terms of slowing some of the
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momentum we saw in may and june. but i think the one thing that not many people are talking about that is important is that even though the fundamentals might start to deteriorate from here from the economic standpoint there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. there's a report a few weeks ago showing that more than 50% of the value of the market capitalization of u.s. stock market is sitting in money market funds both institutional and retail given the severity of the situation here with covid, we have a lot of people that raised cash and are probably sitting on a lot more cash than they are comfortable with and looking for a spot to re-invest that so i think to the extent of volatility here in the market relating to the disease state and as it relates to foreign relations that we could serve to stem some of that volatility as that money finds its way back boo the equity market and given where bond yields are, safe bond
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yields, it really is one of the only alternatives that's going to earn something more than the rate of inflation. but i also think that earnings estimates as we have seen, it is very early in the season here, you by estimates are pretty low this quarter we were dealing with a situation where there was no guidance from anybody because no one knew how bad things could be and no reason to get really aggressive with estimates and seen them come down ahead of earnings season and i think likely to see an earnings season where things aren't as bad as everybody thought. >> yeah. >> it could help support the equity market. >> i don't know if you got an advanced look at my show tomorrow morning but the rbi is about the cash on the sidelines. you blew the rbi i have to come up with a new one because it's a good point. >> sorry. >> kevin, it is a great point. i'll give it away now. kevin, i like you. there's $5 trillion in cash. the market cap of apple,
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microsoft and google combined sitting on the sidelines right now. will that ever get back in the game sort to speak are you seeing inflows of those shares >> it will i am well aware of what that cash is doing. yes, o-shares doubled the aum just last six months as a result of people trying to find that special magic number of 6% i don't care if you're a financial institution or a family trying to get by off the investments because you are in retirement that's between 5% and 7% cash distribution yields and what has occurred over six months and the whole bond ladder of government bonds has gone away as an option you can't invest in a 30-year bond and make less than 200 basis points without taking huge duration risk and inflation risk and as a result that cash which continues to build up is going to have to find a way to get a
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2.8% return and then find quality balance sheets in think sector you wish to pick that can give you two things -- protection against inflation when it does come and i think after sprinkling $7 trillion of aid on an economy of a helicopter we'll see inflation and you want protection and generally the s&p can give you that lastly, that 5% to 7% that you are looking for. you get days like today when sectors that are severely impaired like financials have a run, it is an opportunity to reduce exposure to that and if you say to me, well, is the stay-at-home trade over? i don't call it that anymore i call it america 2.0 efficiency digitization i'm betting that the s&p will enhance the margins by 4% over 2 years cutting back on the inefficiency that it used to have with too many people working in an office or not selling direct to a customer that is going away with digitization and that trade
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remains intact and overweight that anything to help me digitize america i'm long anything of the legacy stuff like the utilities or banks i don't want to own those right now. they have to go through a complete mark to market realization of asets that have been impaired maybe permanently. >> these are all points. listen. there's only 3,600 in the wilshire 5,000 because there's not enough stock to name the 5,000 names. maybe the biggest bull case of all is boring. it is just that you have a lot of money global, manufactured, printed or whatever to chase fewer assets long term. >> i think that's a big part of
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it we have seen how much money is printed, how much stimulus we have and further to get and i think we are at a period at least when you compare it to two months ago that potentially we are going to see a vaccine and we have got multiple players doing it what does that mean to the economy? you have to take it in a diversified place. if this stays the way it is, then, quote the stay-at-home stocks do well, but there's a combination of that and you have to look and see where the next growth rate will be and what's going to do well and not and a lot of businesses that aren't going to represent what they were just six months ago but that's kind of where we have to look at and if you look at where inflation is going to be and purchasing power is going to be, you have a bar bell strategy i believe in the value side. if you look at the industrials and financials they're valued but you have to be picking and not just buy the xlf, the whole industry
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it's going to be specific. that's where capital will flow and then investors will do well making sure that they're allocated to the right stocks. >> we'll get to goldman later. your point is well proven. joe, i want to get a final comment before individual names. goldman sachs out with a note today saying they expect 6% analyzed gain for the s&p 500 for the next 10 years. that sounds okay it's a little below historical and down from the previous forecast if our viewers or your clients or friends believe that note, is that enough of a hook, of a lure to keep them invested in equities should they look to real estate or something else? >> there's been much written in the past six months about the death for the 60/40 portfolio. why? because of bond yields at historically low levels and the potential that we will not be able to achieve an analyzed
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expected return around 6%. so david coston's note is the outlier in the minority thinking looking forward you will be able to achieve that 6% i think it is going to lead to an environment where active managers will once again become favored. i think passive investing will have to take a step back in that environment. i heard the word used by sarat of diversification and clearlya utilized not only domestically but going to the emerging markets and thinking of equity size class so i think it would be very challenged and i think the expectation is a 6% annual return will be difficult to achieve and that's why i foresee the markets becoming far more active. >> okay. good stuff there we can discuss the note another day and now individual moves in
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this market. stephen, start with you. a few months ago we talked about used car markets going nuts. if you can afford a car you will buy one because you don't want to be on mass transit trying to isolate yourself is that part of the reason you bought the automaker stocks? >> that's one of the small reasons. i have wanted more exposure away from just my technology and my growth names these seemed, ford and gm, reasonable candidates because of used car prices, because you have tremendous demand constraint in the early days of covid and car companies cut back their production schedules inventory's very, very tight they won't have to give as many concessions that they have in the past i don't expect them to explode to the upside but i also see very, very little downside in
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either ford or gm and thought a risk/reward basis they're attractive and shaved some exposure, not tremendous but took down some exposure in some names where they got ahead of themselves on a near term basis and because i think we are at the upper end of the trading range. >> really interesting. i'm sur pridesprised you can owr company not tesla. kevin, what about the digitization of montreal i understand you're adding to the shopify position. >> yeah. on shopify turned out to be an extraordinary platform and using again an index of private companies and watching how they maneuver for five and six mot movants. when people look at american companies servicing american markets, 68% out gdp is small
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business in america. they typically were 50% in retail and 10% on their own websites to consumers. retail shut down effectively in most locations and so what many of them have done has combined digital platte forms like a facebook with a shopify to connect directly with the customers so if you had a store in nashville, tennessee, and it's closed now you go to shopify and the reason instead of putting more demand on amazon distribution, it's another retailer if you can sell direct to your customer in a town like nashville, and your sales drop in half, your net cash flows are the same >> yeah. >> i have dozens of examples of this you reach out to that customer and sell them directly i was so hoping that facebook
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bashing would push that stock down and i admire those that need to bash facebook and i beg them to do more of it. let me buy that stock at a lower price. hit them again the platform is so efficient. >> okay. quick follow-up to you can you own both amazon and shopify? do you have to own them both covering both sides of the spectrum or ultimately sort of take each other out? >> no, no, no. you can own them both. my point is -- by the way, let me tell you how much i love amazon as a shareholder and a customer they're 40% of my sales across the portfolio of over 50 companies. they're very important but for every incremental dollar on shopify i get almost 100% gross margin amazon puts the brand tape around the box, stick other people's product beside mine
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when i ship a shopify product, it's my brand and 100% gross margin the partnerships like walmart with shopify and facebook, this is the new emerging market for small business in america and you need to own it that's my opinion as an investor and i live and breathe it every day. i love amazon and love, love, love shopify. >> yeah. i mean, hey, i think it is now the -- maybe has been for a while the single biggest company in canada by a long shot brenda, we have been talking about this work from home or stay-at-home trade you have done the opposite and bought bookings holdings recently will we go to gt something "o" and go somewhere >> we have exposure to all the big large cap tech names, maintaining that exposure and recognize the importance of being diversified and having
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exposure to high quality companies that are beaten up that certainly whose businesses are being incredibly impacted but that will likely be favored in an economic recovery scenario, especially if we continue to get good news on the vaccine front and the market say maybe by august of next year when a vaccine is available. i think the forward-looking mechanism instead of discount back and properly value the companies with more exposure to areas like travel and leisure and booking is an asset light model and we think it's well positioned in leisure which is the first part of the travel industry we think to come back and business related travel will likely lag so we like it but it's really been as said a stock picker's market in the environment and we think there are individual opportunitys that are still really interesting and booking holdings is one of those. >> all right thank you very much.
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let's get to a market flash with deirdre bosa what are you looking at today? >> hey, brian. zoom shares have bounced off session lows but down 4% and this comes as zoom has announced that it will be getting into the hardware game with a $600 device called zoom for home and made by its partner and it's very similar to other video chat devices like google's nest hub, amazon's echo show those devices, however, are far cheaper. this is a price tag as i mentioned of nearly $600 investors are not really loving the move the stock is down about 3.3% and it has bounced off session lows. back over to you. >> all right thank you very much. still missed the eagle let's dive deeper into the stock story of the day and one
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that was driving everything up market's still up off the lows and of course moderna. you got piper sandler raising the tar get. hit $88 earlier today and still a good day on good news not just for the shareholders but maybe for humanity as we noted you on it. are you selling or buying more >> no. i'll wait for another inane moment in the market to buy more if you recall, the stock got hit and hit for a few days when pfizer came out and released their results and i bought more then messenger rna is a technology both pfizer and moderna are using. what people lose sight of is the fact that moderna has a pipeline of almost 20 other drugs that if you ratify the technology, which
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is the same as the ticker, then you have a huge company here, so i'll use any weakness to purchase more shares they'll start phase three july 27th they said so maybe the stock bounces up again then and any opportunity you see where pfizer is making strides that means you have to buy moderna, as well. about the vaccine, doesn't matter if they make money on the covid vaccine because they make money on the rest of the portfolio. number two, in a man or woman on the street poll, i don't know anybody taking that vaccine early on takes four to ten years to develop and given the technology you can say it's a lot sooner because of the technology, still, i think very few early adopters of the vaccine. that won't matter in terms of the market you will continue to see lifts in the market with good news
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coming out. >> not the only ones the astra zeneca news. a chinese company have said that they're making great strides, as well now move on to the banks as we said earlier, we are learning that not all banks are built the same some have a lot of mortgage exposure wells fargo and the market doesn't like that. but if you have a giant trading desk you pretty much printed last money last quarter. joe, goldman sachs crushed expectations and the stock barely reacting today. what gives >> what gives is the commentary on the conference call where it was suggested by management that there was sot sustainability in the type of strong revenue that's being derived from capital markets and trading in the prior quarter. so that's one of the reasons that the stock has fallen back i do believe when looking at financial institutions and n
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regards to money center banks there's jpmorgan and then jpmorgan and then none other to me that is the best in breed. that is the franchise that has utilized technology in the best way to efficiently reach their customers during this pandemic the right thesis, though, for financials is about trading. and that takes you to a morgan stanley, that takes you to a goldman sachs and more mor importantly to the exchanges i own the nasdaq you can also look at the cme, ice, mktx. i think in the continued volatile environment that we are going to continue to be experiencing with all of the cash coming off the sidelines the exchanges are the proper way to allocate to financial services but back to morgan stanley and goldman sachs, i am staying with those positions. i believe that both of those
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companies create best in breed scenarios as it relates to the capital markets and even if there's a relaxation in the trading revenue that was generated in the prior quarter, i think there's enough diversification in both the business models for both to keep me as a shareholder. >> okay. a long-term very strong bull case kevin, you just sold everything. you are not buying anything. why not? >> i think you do not want to own money center banks and you want to lighten up on regional banks. my theory is simple. let's look at money center banks. i agree that they're the best managed they have ever been. jamie dimon is a rock star as a manager. all these jockeys on horses, in the old days to run the race in the sun. they had great spreads on interest rates they don't have that now the long books were growing.
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they don't now they have concerns of the real estate portfolios. it is raining on the kentucky derby. they're running in the mud you have situation of wells fargo. wells fargo is general electric of the financial services industry it is where money goes to die. >> ouch. >> you want to put dollars to work there come on. the charts, you have to tell the truth. why would you try to pick the bottom people have been trying to do that for two years i hate this sector i think there's a time to buy it but mark to market the downside of a long duration, non-vaccine environment which could be 18 to 24 months. for example, bed bath & beyond closes 200 stores. tell me that doesn't affect the regional banks because all the fran chidchiser bought money for regionals will they pay them back? probably not the loans have to be cleared let the sector flush itself out
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with better buying opportunities. goldman sachs gave me a gift a few weeks ago. i got a year's worth of returns out of it. why not sell it on the tape this morning? i don't think they get that trading this quarter if i'm just going to trade i own the exchanges. it is not interest rate sense ty but zero interest rates in the financial services industry sucks. >> wells fargo is the ge of the banking sector that will get a headline but i think you know how to make headlines. the point we tried to make is that wells fargo and goldman sachs you can call them both banks but they are totally different businesses wells fargo is getting beaten up because they have got 20 some billion in clos on their books the biggest mortgage holder, second biggest in the united states millions of people deferring and may continue to defer the mortgage you can't compare the two. >> no. you can't.
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that's why i say - >> sure, you can they make up the index >> i'm not - >> hold on, kevin. sarat, you first when i look at it and to joe's point, yeah, i love jeev milkha singh, i look at this -- these companies trading at 1.1 times book with great management teams and i'm not picking the sector, not buying the xlf we goldman sachs and it's been increasing the wealth management business and drives the multiple for a recurring revenue business there and an m&a business with a return blackstone over 500 billion of assets under management and a 2% fee and an upside potential. look across the sector and i agree with kevin you will be really careful with the regionals, especially the smaller ones and where you have to say let me parse what's out there, valuation is cheap for a reason and what are the ones
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that are cheap i think a year from now will be the ones that give me good compounded returns? not every one of them but the ones i really like. >> the way we structure, i can't hear everybody i look at the boxes. is anybody coming to the defense or owns wells fargo? raise your hand? i'll call on alice in the center square anybody? anybody own wells fargo? $10? $15? nobody kevin, you might be right! >> brian - >> it's the exact thing to drive down the index it's tough really tough everybody's trying to pick the bottom in my view it will give you a chance to buy in over the next 12 months at a much lower price even below book value in some cases and got to flush out the real estate question i think a lot of banks own aaa prime real estate and either you
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believe you get a 15% reduction in the use of the space and somehow renegotiate the leases and the debt around it, that's an opportunity to jump in. remember, financials used to be 18% of the s&p and i think below 10% now. thak they could go to 8%. >> wow. >> there's time but not now. >> financials are going the way of oil and energy. >> yeah. well, not quite but let me just add this which i have said in the past if you get elizabeth warren as treasury secretary, that's like liz liz lizzy borden to banks. that's another reason to avoid i don't see the upside there low interest rates are factored in pretty well and the great management teams across the banking sector are what's keeping the stocks where they
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are. without them they'd be a lot lower. >> all right good discussion there. on the banks, as well. thank you. all right. we're going to take a break. why not? only 30 minutes into the show. one stock picker is buying more of netflix ahead of tomorrow's results and why. plus, she is adding to one real estate winner, that's right, that is already up 30% this year two of our experts there, who we reveal own it, as well another red hot under the radar stock that doubled this ear. hard to believe all that and more still to come the dow up 148 and we are back ghafr is hike!
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welcome back let's get to the world and national hea, everyone hee's what's happening that the hour oklahoma governor says that he haite for the coronavirus. he's refused calls for mask mandates but he says a person's choice to wear a face covering should be respected. he has also backed a country's most aggressive reopening plan. in atlanta, a teen suspect has been charged with felony murder and assault in the death of an 8-year-old girl. she was fatally shot on the fourth of july while riding in a
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suv with her mother. in new york, the statue of liberty and ellis island are set to partially reopen monday indoor areas including statue itself and the el us island museum will be closed for now. disneyland paris reopened after being closed for four months masks are required as they are at other disney properties operating. socially distancing is being enforced you are up to date i'll send it back to you. >> we showed the video of disneyland paris a giant storm cloud coming in over the castle. >> i know. it didn't look good and you know what when that happens at other disney properties everybody like rushes to get cover and they're not going to be able to do that because of social distancing so there you have it. >> rushes to get a giant turkey leg, sue. >> they're the best. they are the best. >> they are. just not big enough. thank you. let's go individual stock
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picks now. start with netflix getting the price target raised. morgan stanley jumping to $575 from $485. the next guest is adding to the position ahead of the results. tiffany mcgee is ceo and she joins us live. tiffany, what makes you billish on netflix >> hi, thank you for having me we have always been bullish on netflix. we like the idea, the concept of streaming services and what we are excited about, what we continue to be excited about right now is this whole idea of this formula that content growth at netflix drives future subscription growth and so we have seen it year over year as pay attention to the numbers and of course many people consider it a stay-at-home stock and we have seen this pandemic-like environment as an opportunity to gain more -- for net flix to
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gain more viewer share so right now they have about 10% viewership it doesn't seem that people have really -- some people don't believe that because it seems like everybody especially in the u.s. has a netflix account but they only have about 10% of viewership, especially in developed countries look the u.s. so we think that there's a huge opportunity for them to grow dmesingally, especially in emerging market countries. >> i hear you but it's not about the quality of the company, as you know it is the price. netflix and this is -- you gave us a stat that is hard to believe. maybe i'll give you one that's hard to believe, as well netflix's market cap is now $10 billion more than disney than disney! >> yeah. as we're thinking about adding to positions and in particular in netflix, we are really looking at the opportunities
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right? we are long term investors our clients are primarily foundation so we -- earlier on in march when netflix dipped we used it as an opportunity to buy more and right now just under the 52-week high and morgan stanley increased their estimates, also goldman sachs increased estimates, as well we think the price continues to go up and wanted to buy it now and can't count on another dip like we saw in march. >> okay. fair enough. by the way, there's new comp there's new competition in netflix called peacock, a free streaming service launched by nbc universal and comcast our parent companies there's a premium tier launches today
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free content our producer loves -- he is british. loves soccer you can watch 150 premier league matches every week or month. go tottenham do you worry that the space is getting a little crowded the competition for the dollar you mentioned is going to get a little tighter everybody can't pay for everything you see what i did there >> yeah. i really don't worry about that. in theory, you know, the perceived competition is really not competition so looking at the numbers, especially in prime time, net flix's real competition in local broadcaster and don't see a disney, peacock, with all due respect, as huge competition for netflix. >> all right fair enough there. brenda, to you, you own disney
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do you also own netflix? do you have to choose a side here marvel versus d.c. or can you own them both and be happy >> we only own disney. netflix is a great stock so you certainly could own both but it is a preference to own disney with more upside potential here. more impacted from a negative standpoint by park closures and other things but in our view the content that disney has is just -- it is so unique and it's not repeatable by anybody. we like that they're also venturing into the streaming side with disney plus and great things there so our preference would be disney of the two. >> yeah. sarat, i'll give you this stat ten years ago today netflix was a $23 stock.
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it is $515 dvds by mail unbelievable store >> look. netflix is a phenomenal company and like brenda, we -- i look at disney on a valuation basis, on a mote business where so many parts work together and right now we have a few of them that aren't working together and where the stock is reflects that i think when you get back to near normal whatever that is disney has so many levers to pull and why you see the stock's held up and back to 120. because the assets that they have are so hard to replicate and unlike some of the other content companies to keep on recreating things when you have a disney across the board there's an intrinsic value that's hard to replicate. >> used to be when will disney buy netflix? you wonder if it will flip i'm kidding. now lululemon. tiffany, we'll be faster you bantamweight it.
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what makes the company so attractive in a tough retail environment? >> i always talk about lulu. we are five months into a semiquarantine at least and still wearing leggings of lululemon as we speak and i definitely like lulu it is a cult following last time i was on the show we talked about it in the same vein as nike which i maintain is a completely separate company but now with the acquisition of mirror lulu catapulted themselves into a different revenue stream you know i call this my quick pivot stocks and so now i think we are talking about it in the same conversation as a peloton and comparative speaking mirror is about half the price of peloton, with an at-home connectivity and
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as we figure out reopening and not, i think they're uniquely positioned. >> weiss, you agree, you own it. >> i don't agree with everything that tiffany said. look the acquisition of mirror of $500 million on an almost $30 billion company, that is like weekend tips for kevin o'leary doesn't mean that much i'd hate for it to be disregarded as peloton because peloton is a stay-at-home play and while they do well they're not making money and the bar is much higher for a company that doesn't really have equipment at home to connect you with so look. if they score with mirror, phenomenal, if they don't, the company will still do well and not cheap so you have to keep that in mind but it is a unique asset. >> the day you agree with anything anybody says we'll retire the program
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that will be it. so please never do that. >> brian, i agree with you on that 100% >> i see what you did there. joe? >> brian, as i wave for the camera to jump in here and add a different angle, it is about the balance sheet and the fantastic 2019 that lululemon provided to shareholders the revenue growth up. i love that. my good friend mr. wonderful, i know he would buy the stock if they paid a dividend and i think some point they will so it's about the balance sheet. >> now we love it, tiffany you brought us a company not only -- i don't think i've talked about or never even heard of and i want to be careful. it is a billion. above our market cap 500 million but a billion dollar stock.
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a mattress company purple innovation. >> a mattress company. yeah so as everybody's been talking about the stay-at-home stocks and everyone has been home and kind of doing work on their house, on their homes, they have also apparently been buying mattresses and it is not what you first think thinking of stay-at-home stocks but purple first of all they have been -- since in 2016 when they kind of first emerged spending money on digital advertising and not relying on stores or for their sales so i liked how they were positioned kind of coming into the pandemic the stock up about 258% in the last 3 months. year to date about 115%. co compared to a main competitor, sleep number, the price point is half sleep number, you would think if purple is up so is sleep number and they're down about 8% for
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the year so i really like the technology factor with purple. they have this really cool app to actually -- you can actually set the mattress to wake you up in the morning with a massage. i love that. also be watching sleep number as they report earnings this week because i really believe that it's going to be -- definitely down come parred to purple. >> wake you up with a massage? maybe we need to talk about the company more. >> yeah. >> kevin, i'm going to quote kevin o'leary. mattress companies been places i think that have been just garbage investments. i think it's a fair statement. casper is off its high we have seen many companies go bankrupt you wish you had owned purple. >> i do, actually. this is one of the teams that figured out customer acquisition costs. start-ups look online to
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initiate revenue and can they acquire customers less than the lifetime value otherwise they go bankrupt they have figured it out with digital markets effectively. you don't know when you start the journey who you're picking and have to have a portfolio of them but once they get it right, customer acquisitions you pour gasoline on that fire and you have parabolic growth and reminds me of a pick earlier, lululemon. i missed that one and really sorry i did because i thought it was another gap story. you know t-shirts and jeans fell out of fair what do they wear? brand new genre that isn't brand new anymore. lululemon has taken over that. i missed it. the balance sheet deserves me to own it but i think most of the upside is gone there. >> just say this somebody of us five or six by the way is -- besides tiffany
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probably wearing lululemon pants and it is not brenda. >> right. >> when i look down, i was looking on my cnbc app purple innovation up 10% on the comments there, tiffany. so the stock moving. that's it for that we are not done. there are also calls plural out on american express, the gap which kevin obviously loves, kidding, the trades from your experts trade ahead as we roll on and tomorrow night in partnership with acorns, cnbc hosting a virtual live town hall bringing together americans affected by the current health, social and economic crisis the most respected financial experts in the industry will answer your questions and offer real actionable strategies and advice to reset and rebuild the financial future this is a big one, a big deal. i know the team is working on it for a long time. be sure to not miss it 7:00 p.m. eastern time tomorrow.
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let's get another look at purple innovations. that stock has taken off more than you jump out of bed after a massage from the mattress itself we are back right after this experience the adventure of a bigger world in a highly capable lexus suv. at the golden opportunity sales event. get zero percent financing on all 2020 lexus models. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. now you can trade stocks and etfs for any amount you choose instead of buying by the share. all with no commissions. stocks by the slice from fidelity. get your slice today.
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all right, welcome back. american express downgraded to underweight at j.p. morgan chase. sarat, you own it. are you still owning it? >> i do own it look at the valuation. the thing is off 40% of its peak it's a world company and i'm buying it for two to three years out, at least.
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this is a company that has technology and information about all the largest companies in customer, so really it's the quote of another value play, but i accompany that by owning paypal and visa. pay pal is up 50%, amazon 40%. >> let's go to rahel solomon rahel, what are you watching today? >> let's start with harley-davidson, price target 31 this is on optimism on cost-cutting measures and the impact to its bottom line. looking now at shares of gap rbc upgrading the retailer to outperform this morning. they said it could help capture a younger consumer finally, raymond james upgrading
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hanesbrands. they think vendor partners like hanesbrands will benefit as well a couple things taken from the table of contents, and these are quotes, all i do is win, win, win. got money on my mind can never get enough and it's all about the benjamins on the free cash flow. brian, i'll send it back to you. >> rahel solomon, thank you very much by the way, there is an opec sort of meeting today. i say sort of, it's not the full ministerial meeting where everybody kind of virtually comes around the table and we used to stand in that stairwell. this is a technical committee meeting where they honor output levels, and we are getting a heads up that the group will increase production. when i say increase production, i want to be careful of my language opec currently has a deal to cut production -- of course, when oil went negative they made this emergency deal
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9.7 million barrel a day cut what they always said was they were going to reduce their cut to 7.7 million barrels a day in august that's what they had already agreed on. dow jones now reporting that they will cut their cut, effectively increase production, in august by 1.6 million barrels a day. so that will take it to let's call it 8.1 million barrel per day, cuts still in effect going into august, according to the dow jones. maybe a little tighter than expected we'll watch the price of oil right now. i just drew a lot of math. by the way, they are cutting less in august than they were. i think. i'm kidding. time now for futures outlook let's talk about silver jumping alongside the markets today, and it's now trading at its highest levels since 2016. future traders are betting that they have room to run. let's bring in jim uaiuorio of j
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institutional services >> i wish if >> so here's the trade i'm looking at, and i'm already long on silver and have been for a couple months. 1980 is a stop level for me. in retrospect, i think i should have changed that to 1982, but either way, i have a target of 2085 on the upside and a stock below 1915 what i said before, it benefits from the fed and from a search for a fiat currency substitute -- phone ringing, live tv -- also a recovery stock, too bitcoin in gold, the reason i don't like them as much, they had two times where they were heavily flawed in volatility in
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the last few months. that's why silver is the lone survivor >> jim, you're always great on live tv. a great pleasure, we'll see you soon your final trades are straight ahead the dow at 156 we're back right after this.
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. welcome back well, mr. wonderful himself will
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answer your money questions next week, and you can join him for a live chat on youtube during the all-new webisode of "got a money dispute? ask kevin. wednesday, july 22, 2:00 p.m. eastern time let's go around the horn for the final trades joe, we'll begin with you. >> brian, i know it's out of favor to talk about an energy company, but the best in breed is chevron they've reduced capex. they endured the downturn in 2016, they'll endure this one. that's a favorite to own >> sarat >> morgan stanley. we talked a little finances, tomorrow you'll see how their business is doing and what very many times will look like, so i want to hold this into earnings. >> steven? >> taiwan semi they'll report about 2:00 in the morning est, and i think you can
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make money while you sleep and wake up tomorrow morning to a nice return. >> brenda? >> tjx this company, there are retail doors that are closing that are competitors. also a lot of great inventory out there, so we think they're poised to do well. >> kevin >> docusign, global document management doing a fantastic job jur, just killing it thank you, everybody we'll see you tomorrow at the same time. "the exchange" with tyler matheson begins right now. >> brian, thank you very much. here's what's ahead on "the exchange" today. the dow fading after being up more than 400 points earlier on positive vaccine news. but the market may be signalling that it shouldn't be hanging all its hopes on data from just 45


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