tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC July 27, 2020 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
on cost cutting, productivity measures what they are budgeting in terms of to line that matters most. >> taiwan semi, nice move today. let's get back to headquarters welcome to "the halftime report." our top story, the moment of truth for stocks as one-third of the s&p 500 reports earnings this week. we'll debate what's at stake with your money. jason snipe is the principal of
o odssey capital we see stocks higher into a pivotal week for your money. i said one third of the s&p reports. you have the big tech hearing on the hill you have a fed meeting you have stimulus negotiations what's on the line >> i think anything to go wrong with the next trillion, that would be a huge problem. that's so done deal. hopefully most of us hope it will be more focused effort. we don't money into zombie companies. we decide on what sectors will survive and try to support those. i think the earnings will be pretty good. anything to do with consumer is still buoyant and will be intact tech remains the favorite of investors. it continues the grow and allow the economy to function and continues to digitize not just here but globally. doints see a lot of downside going into numbers i don't expect any intel
surprises nap was bad management i'm hoping the whacking stick will be coming out there when it gets back below 50 bucks, it's buying opportunities. those are the kind of surprises you don't know until you get them more tech and more tech. >> it leads me to jason. you're a growth investor it's good to have you on the show i'm wondering how you size up what's at stake especially given the fact the market was weak last week coming into what was so important now >> earnings were great they were solid last week. it was a major holding for us. what we saw was the report was shown and the only shortfall was their guidance the numbers are really good and
some buy in the terms of negative volume in the stock i think we will likely see more in the tech names this week. >> jenny, jason brings up a good point. the stock has had a great run. it goes into the number. it has a good earnings report. maybe not good enough for some given the run it had into the number so the stock sells off. i'm woerndsing if you think we could face a similar scenario this time given all that is at stake. it would be larger than that amazon is 27% over the last three months facebook is 23 alphabet is 20 these stocks have run an awful lot into these earnings reports. >> i think what's at stake is hopes and dreams that brings up your point, which is, microsoft has great numbers but the expectations were for it
be so much more amazing. i think it will be an exciting and interesting week where there's going to be a handful of companies where expectations are way too high and the hopes and dreams will probably get ratcheted down i don't think that means an intel like report where we're going to see a lot of down 16 percents but probably some disappointment there's a lot of companies out there like 400 companies out there, probably, where the expectations are for diddly. as those companies are allowed to come out and report, make the expectations are so low than even an okay quarter, not a disappointment is received very favorably by the market. i think it might be exciting and kind of amazing week but i think net net it could be a week of consolidation. >> joe, what about that in consolidation. are you nervous, joe we're looking at the earnings calendar i know we're so heavily focused
on thursday. facebook moves its earnings report from wednesday to thursday because of the big tech hearing taking place midweek are you nervous coming into this week with everything that seems to be at stake >> generally by nature i'm not nervous. we would have to go 0 for 3 in earnings there would be a concern for the marketplace. i think you would get a bit of that correction. if not technology, then where. where am i supposed to put my money if i'mnot going to be in technology now we're coming into the time of year where we were allocating towards the back to school theory or the retail theory. that's not going to happen at this point in the year
those tuptss will not be in the united states. they will be outside the united states the u.s. dollar is telling you, specifically, that's where the economic recoveries happening. >> what do you mean 0 for 3? we have to go 0 for 3. >> it's simple on thursday we have to go 0 for 3 earnings we would have to have three lousy earnings reports and in each case you see negative pricing. that's 0 for 3 >> i mean, you're telling me that you think if -- let's just say if apple and if their four big reports on thursday. it's facebook, alphabet, amazon and apple. that's why you said 0 for 3. we have four big reports >> i'm not factoring facebook in there. i don't think facebook is releva relevant i think facebook relative to the other three are different. let's not dispute that >> say if apple is a
disappointment or just amazon, the market just brushes that off and says the other two or three was good so who cares about this one? >> i really do i believe that's enough. microsoft, modest at best. netflix, modest at best disappointment in terms of price action you would have to see all three clearly struggle if you get one or two of them that perform well, i think the theory around these technology companies, the megacap technology companies, these growth companies which is what they really are, they offer you the best strategy in what is clearly evolving into a defensive environment. i think that's the permeating thing. >> if we're about to come into a defensive environment, do you think tech is at the tipping point given the run we had and a bit of shakiness over the last week or so >> if indeed we had like, joe says, one, two or even three of
those stocks miss, yeah, that would be a tipping point i agree with him on that i don't know that we have to go 0 for 3. i think any one of those, if it was bad enough, like last week you and i talked about microsoft, that wasn't bad i realize it dropped from 211 to 198 or whatever during that profit taking session. it goes right back up over 200 here it is one of the trillion dollar clubs that just keeps doing things right i think if tech missed in a big way, that would be a big deal. right now, scott, as far as defensive plays, these are some mind blowing numbers silver, slv, for the year, i'm looking at it now. 35% for the year the gld up 23% not the gld. the gdx, the miners. the miners are up 23 gold t itself, which is out
performing like crazy isn't out performers the miners. it's up less than 10%. when you're looking at where are people chasing in with some safety plays, if you will, because of the trillions of dollars that we're putting out there, because of what europe just passed last week with their both grant program as well as their stimulus that they are talking about, i think that's why you're seeing silver and gold just zoom and those miners whether it's full miners or junior miners are also zooming right along with it. in fact, out performing in a pretty big way >> jason, what do you make of the fact as the stocks continue to rise and the expectations to continue they continue to go right along with that. price targets just keep going up today i'm looking at amazon, 3600 from a couple of firms. 3500 from another firm alphabetgets bumped today.
what do you make of that in. >> i think there's some momentum fatigue. i feel the numbers are very strong and the only blemish might been on the record which is the shortfall i do think there's a bit of fatigue out there. we saw a bit of a draw down next week i think all these will continue to move higher >> if it's amazon or apple or a big name, which one do you think would bring the market down if it disappointed? joe said the market can with stand one of these names disappointing. do you agree with that >> di do i don't anticipate any disappointments on these engi s engines, including facebook. even though it's getting bashed from every angle, it's totally irrelevant to the i venvestment thesis i look at my tear sheets each
week 80% of our advertising dollars are now on facebook or insta we don't care if a burger company doesn't want to advertise on it. it's ir relevant that's 10% of their book if they want eyeballs, they'll have the go back if i see any slow down there, that would tell me there's exhaustion coming in small business that's pivoting to the digital side of things which i see none of. there's the haves and have notes. 20% -- sorry go ahead >> maybe i should have used a different word maybe disappointment is not the right word the use given the fact that microsoft didn't disappointment and the stock still went down, but where expectations are, what happens if the earnings just don't meet the expectation? we don't have to say they will disappointment they can still beat numbers. the outlooks could be decent but what if they're not good enough given how the stocks have run.
the market is not going to just brush that off. that's what's working, not just moment i've got enough focus. 20% is going to fail it's going to fail they going to zero all that stuff, beginning to zero i don't want to support them anymore. i don't think the government should either. let those guys die they have to die the consumer is moving into a different direction.
amazon is a must have for my small business that trend remains in tact what's different is i now know who the losers are antd the market does too. >> i know why the stocks have gone up. everybody knows. there's nothing new in the story which says how much better could amazon or whoever else in the big five, how much better could it really get which makes the stocks at risk, doesn't it, on thursday night >> i know that you're baiting me into this. >> well, i do that >> yes, you would. if you told me every company on earth is either already using amazon web sfervices, azur or
google cloud then i would say where is the growth. that's where the rubber meets the road we both know that's not the case there's a lot of companies that are getting on board right now, today. a lot of that demand for cloud services, software, security all of that plays right into the hands of google, amazon, microsoft. those are the big ones the apple cloud is all of these device equiconnected and pumpin stuff up to the cloud. >> i get it. i can't get anybody to bite this >> you're not getting me to bite >> i'll bite >> how much better can it get for amazon can they really tell us
something from this thursday night that will give you the kind of appreciation on the stock price that we already witnessed? at some point doesn't there have to be consolidation somewhere. maybe i'm the only crazy one >> i think there does. i think there does i think you're spot on i think there's a difference between how much better can it get from amazon in terms of selling and bringing on clients and the share price. i think it is unlikely that they continue at the pace they have been at. there could be real regulation coming in.
competition comes in some how. people are saying there's no competition. walmart is going to take over everything there will be competition and may be regulation. there's no reason the companies can't continue to succeed and do well their valuations are at levels where people seem to expect another 40%. >> that's kind of my point you'reswimming against the tide that's the problem when you make a comment. >> i'm used to it. >> the question is and our next guest is trying to answer this whether investors are delusional no matter what, the stock market just keeps going up. you have a more positive take on the virus than is truly the story on the ground. i don't know maybe ed knows
>> i don't know that they are delusional yet but if this market keeps going higher, i'd have to concludes perhaps that's exactly what's happening there are some early fundamentals we know about the virus still spreading. we know there's a cold war been developing between the united states and china for a while it seems to be getting worse we know the v shaped recovery we had in may and june is already stalling in july because some of the governors are backing off on lifting restrictions are going back and putting some restrictions on. the negatives are out there. a billion here, a trillion as of some real serious money and you have to say that if there's a delusion out there, it's kind of like the fed keeps filling up that punch bowl with spiked liquidity
>> neighbor nothing else matters. you list the possible risk to the market and then say all these considerations are all the more reason for investors to come to their senses and lot stock prices consolidate their gains while waiting for more evidence of a sustainable recovery >> i rest my case. >> you do think that investors, we're ahead of ourselves relative to what the news is >> i do. i said i thought the market could get up to 2900 which was a pretty aggressive target prices have gone up at the same
time that earnings expectations have gone down they've only recently started to level out. i think the market needs to consolidate and give some time for the fundamentals to show that the recovery is still there. it's not stalling. we're not going to get a w when it's not a billion here, a trillion there are, we're spending billions of dollars on vaccines that may well be what saves the day for the market, for the economy, for our businesses, for our workers. we are seeing people spit out some of their profits from some of these tech names into gold and silver and they are looking for alternatives >> kevin do you agree with ed or not? he said we're ahead of ourselves. you don't seem to think so >> the one thing, i agree with ed in in things but the one
thing he didn't mention that i want to point out to, i can no longer use the anchor that yiezed for decades, government bonds for any kind of return it's useless to me now now when the money comes in and man dates that we're 50% fixed income and equities, a triple b gets me 3% 50% from the finish line i have to go to stocks i have no other option exception gold, which i own. how much gold can i own. we have very little to work with as institutional investors, as sovereign funds, anybody running mandates when we have taken away the one thing we had for years capital gains and government bonds. am i going to put money to work for 30 years not a chance i rest my case, your honor to nec week lit be the same thing. i'll be buying more facebook, more apple, more micro soft.
that is our economy. >> the that mentality inflating a bubble in those high growth megacap tech names, for example? >> i'm reminded of that great song by prince "party like it's 1999. he wrote that song in 1982 he was probably one of the greatest investment strategists of all time. he really anticipated we would have a party in 1999 we did the nasdaq was up 200% we're only about up 50% of the nasdaq so far. to the extent that kevin is absolutely right, investors don't want to be in bonds. everybody is going from whatever their bogeye was they don't want so much in bonds anymore. that is driving people into stocks once you get to 25 to 30% of the
market cap of the s&p 500, depending which ones you want to add in, historically that's nosebleed territory. >> do we need to worry about getting a nosebleed we can't contain for a bit? >> i agree with a lot of the points made earlier. we see the rate zero big tech has been a major benefact benefactor >> joe, ed makes some good points >> there's pause, not a peak coming for technology. clearly precious metals are receiving a lot of the inflows
you're seeing the inflows from government bonds i guess what i would question, scott, and ask ed if i think about what might hedge against inflation, it might be historically where can i find a defensive posture, accept these technology companies that are so wash rich and different than in 1999 >> it's a really important point. i think we need to be aware there are some issues. jenny mentioned potential for regime change in november. if we get a very left leaning, democratic sweep of the government, i think there could be some regulation to take some
of these big companies apart that also falters in that kind of scenario. we have seen in president trump, attack drug pricing. you make a good point. maybe that's why we're seeing gold and silver. everybody is making good points. kevin a point you can't put that much into gold maybe institutional investors can but individuals can do it. it's kind of a twilight zone market here. it seems to drive everybody into the same i venvestment concept. i think i'm starting to watch the dollar very carefully.
i have been. it's been weaker that's a signal that maybe it is time to look for opportunities overseas >> we'll do our futures outlook talking about the dollar later ed, we appreciate the time jenny, before we go to break, i wanted to do a segment calling one big buy. that's your new buy of disney. we have a couple of minutes to kick this around let's do it. >> last week we added disney which was a big deal for us. we owned this in the path. held it for three or four years. t been on our radar screen for a long time. last week was interesting. after we saw netflix earnings, we thuought those subscribers have to be going somewhere we think disney plus is doing really good. we think over the next few years those could grow to more like $10 share and that will be in no small part driven by their
streaming services and as we get back to a post vaccine world, all the investment that went into the theme parks before this started, we they will come roaring back it was a big deal. we're really excited to add it i'm not sure if our timing is perfect. that's our disney call >> i want to get kevin's take. jenny coming to the tank you heard this pitch for disney. you say what >> did knee is a stock you want to own the day they announce the vaccine successful and not until then before the vaccine is announced, i'm going to buy it there. there's no reason to own this name until there's a solution to their number one problem people with their kids in parks.
the rest of it is going to be held back by the fact they have put so much capex into these parks all around the world you've got to open them up the way they were. all the openings and closings will keep this stock governed. 97 buy it there and go long waiting but the day they say, which ever company, whether it's pfizer or somebody else says this vaccines work and two years later everybody will be vaccinated, bingo disney, boeing >> all right we'll keep the conversation going. we'll take a quick break more trader moves are ahead. we'll debate them nec. we're back in two minutes. introducing stocks by the slice from fidelity.
welcome back here is your cnbc news update. arizona reporting no new deaths from covid-19 today. the state lowered its overall total by one due to a double counting arizona's confirmed cases rose by 1800. the smallest daily increase since last monday. in the midst of the pande c pandemic, target and dick's sporting goods will stay closed for thanksgiving this year walmart made a similar announcement last week you can go to cnbc.com on how the thanksgiving day shopping tradition is being put on hold a new study does says
wearing a mask does not instill a false security the study showed that mask wearers did not reduce their hand washing or use of social distancing you are up to date that's the news update back to you. thank you. more trader moves coming up. kevin, you sold goldman sach's tell us why. >> yes i sold goldman sachs that's the last of my bank holders. i own no banks anymore that's 18% of the portfolio gone to cash. it's the best managed zombie sector we have banks are going nowhere. it's a disaster in commercial. disaster in retail i bought roch, nestle. i'm getting diversity out of u.s. dollar into companies where most of their sells are in the
u.s. any way i'm getting them cheaper you pay less in europe it's a zip code everybody hates. hate banks hate utilities hate government bonds. >> owe the value you think is o overseas in emerging markets >> yeah. the federal reserve is giving the greatest gift with removing the shortage of the u.s. dollar. you're looking for yield in environment where goth bond gives you nothing. you'll find it in the enb. 39 basis points. it's got 15 billion under assets i have iemg already. it's emerging market equities. >> dr. j >> yeah, i added valet
i'm sure elon musk is happy about that he wants more mining of nickel i like this one just as an infrastructure play too. when we saw call activity heating up in valet, i decided to jump in i'm likely to be in here for quite a while with the rebuilding and all of that mining from mr. musk's batteries. >> i mentioned what's going on with semis today hitting a new all time high. jenny, you own taiwan semi, i'll give you the floor >> we trimmed it last week we trimmed it with the prudent portfolio management it was up a lot op the year.
we're happy to take them off the table give whn what the multipls are. it's a stiff multiple for a stock that's not traded at a 28 times. >> it's up 44% in a month. no one is going to yell at you for taking a little bit of money off the table. jon, you own calls do you stick around? >> i own calls i think you do, scott, but i have rolled up baseball in the last month, it's gone from $58 to now $82 to jenny's point, you take some off the table. what i've done is taken those calls that i owned and rolled them up to now the 75 strike calls and i'm shorting calls at about the 80 level or higher, if it continues like this
>> e should give steve props too. he's been talking about taiwan semi jason, it's over at jpmorgan you own qaulcomm >> i believe 5g is the story that's the future for the digital era. i do think they have into the capital they have in the tirm. >> jenny, you own it to. this is a stock that hasn't done all that much lately >> you know what's funny about this, it's a lot like our disney
investment we bought qualcomm several years ago. we thought in a few years, earnings should be maybe north of $10 share we can afford to be patient. it's in our difr did he understand portfolio and the whole thesis is predicated on the fact the more smartphones we use, the more business qualcomm gets as we move to 5g, few players will benefit as much as qualcomm this year it's kind of flattish but that's okay. i'll take flat year to date. buy it know that it's right even if you look stupid for the first year of holding it. >> we have a very bullish call today in health care space >> so that call would be for
biogen it's up about 3.5% receiving a double upgrade to overweight at morgan stanley analysts admit there's short term concerns by way of je nege competition for their multiple sclerosis drug morgan stanley expects the approval date could be march 21st and cautions that investors could miss as much as a 20% near term move in biogen by taking a wait and see approach. the stock is one of the top performers it has still under performed both of them on a year to date basis. the xbi and ibb are up more than 20%.
>> where is the miss >> biogen has significantly unperformed its peers. it's interesting and this morgan stanley upgrade will get a will the of people interested myself included. you're talking about a cheap billion o tebi tech under performing is the reason why biotech has been so strong and the momentum continues to gather i think people will take a look at it. there are the places, i have xbi.
health care to me is the favorite sector. >> the stock could pull back in their estimation as they look to the long term, they say it's too compelling to pass up. >> if you wait for the march 2021 date you might miss out on 20% upside they think if you can stick with that bumpiness that may come, you could see some good upside on the flip side >> appreciate it thank you. next, the big etfs you need to watch today you can always watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app. there it is. we have three in the red s&p is up nearly 16. we're back right after this. dolph lundgren, you've got a one-sixty i.q., a master's in chemical engineering and you're technically a genius... and it appears you're quite the investor. i like to trade. well, td ameritrade has pros ready if you need help, say
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how did you... gotta enjoy the small wins. you keep being you, derek. keep being you. let's answer some of your questions now. joe, chewy just came up with earnings the other week. instead of investing in one pet related stock, what about the etf shares paws. >> love that trade it's a trade i put on about a month and a half ago
i don't like the over concentration just allocating towards chewy. i want more diversification. the pause etf giv-- pawz etf gi you that >> jon, jane inflorida wants know about max r technologies. what do you think? >> i like it i haven't liked the lack of performance for the past month i haven't been in it the whole month. it was down about 12 or 13%. we saw some unusual activity a week ago bought those calls i'm still holding those, jane. i expect better things to come for the satellite broadcaster. >> stock getting a bit of a lift there. jenny, mike in philly, do you still like b and g foods after the run its had? >> i sure do you know how we spoke earlier about how it's hard to invest in bonds. the 7% yield here --
>> i remember. >> i think you have gdp growth on top of that assignments like it's better than a bond. don't expect another 40% increase >> josh wants know about crowd strike what do you think about it >> absolute buy and hold that's my opinion. if an indexer comes to you and says i want to own the internet giant, you'll find this name in almost ef index. it's the go to name for cloud security, internet ecurity it's on trend. it's on trend. >> gary -- gary in wisconsin, jason, wants know about p and g, which you own. what do you think going into earnings >> we just added it to the portfolio. i think there's a general weakness as we have all talked about this afternoon over 50% of their business is done overseas. strong demand for consumer product. i think it's a fwie for us
s >> joe, round two. dominos reacting bad to earnings why? >> i still don't like the pizza. no you had the same reaction in april. the stock did not perform. you don't jump out of this name. i'm in this name it's a stock that continues to give you double digit returns in terms of sales growth and by the way, we talk about going outside the u.s. they highlighted in the conference call the strength in south korea, taiwan, japan already low beta like all of those conditions stay with it >> speaking of outside the u.s danny in belgium wants to know about fire eye what now with that >> flst been a big player who keeps coming back into the options of fireeye and buying just outside of the money and takes profits and rolls them up and up this one is one that pete cited
last week for unusual activity i think he's right i think if you're watching from belgium, hold onto fireeye >> we're stay international. jenny, david in vancouverer wants to know whether you're still positive about navient for the long term? >> i sure am this is another one with an 8% dividend yield that's way better than a bond. they just reported earnings last week they have good visibility ahead. net interest margin trends are good for them. i think on this one, you get your 8%, maybe some real upside potential. >> kevin, eric in chicago. is pinduoduo a buy >> it's one of the top internet giants for consumers in china. it's the first company of its kind to combine social media with the purchase of consumer products you can find friends and family that buying the same food product on the platform and give
you days count for being part of the club i don't know why we're not doing that on amazon yet it should be starting soon it's the top ten name to own in internet giants. >> lastly, jason to you. anthony in north carolina. lowes has not been moving with the market has it peaked or is there room to grow? >> i think there's room to grow there. very strong leadership i think the kind of trend of doing this at home and the longer it lasts, i think there's room to grow there >> good stuff. unusual activity is coming back. we're back in just 30 seconds.
we're looking at fedex, jon, because why? >> because of unusual option activity we have weekly calls that expire this friday. four more trading days is all. their buying the 170 strike. a week ago they were buying the 160 strike they nailed that i love following somebody who has been right i'll probably be in these two to three days that's the fedex 170s for this friday the next one, milko, this is a september trade. you have a lot more time i'll probably be in these a full
month. it's the september 16 call it's a play on gambling. i like this one a lot. they paid about a 1.25 the stock was 15.50. like the upside. not a big move necessary to make big money. >> all right thank you, jon appreciate that. coming up, the dollar hits its lowest level in two years. we talk to futures traders to find out how they are playing that we'll do that straight ahead
i accept. 5g, everybody is talking about it. how do i get it? everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. that's good. next item, corner offices for everyone. we just have to make more corners in this building. chad? -your wireless, your rules. only with xfinity mobile. now that's simple, easy, awesome. switch to xfinity mobile and save up to four hundred dollars a year on your wireless bill. plus, get two hundred dollars off when you buy an eligible phone. yep. it's time for the futures outlook. the dollar continuing the fall, touching its lowest level now in more than two years today, but scott nations is betting on a reversal why is that? scott, why won't this trend continue >> jon, let's face it, the dollar just got killed it's down a better part of 1% today, 11 days out of the last
12, as the hopes of reopening fade the dollar index has spent most of the last two years between 94 and 101. it's now way oversold, and we know that eventually we'll get back to where we need to go in relationship to other currencies so if you want to play for a bounce, and i do because this is overdone, i would be a buyer in the subcontract in the dollar futures industry at 92.75. a fair amount below where we are right now. my stock would be 92.45,and my target once i'm long to the upside would be 93.75. if we catch those levels, we're richgi in risking $300 to make a thousand dollars, and we're expecting the dollar would get back to the range we've seen over the last two years. >> risk more to make more thing. scott, thank you and see you soon scott nations there for us
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that doesn't even make any sense... mr... uhh... winkle. geico. over 75 years of savings and service. we're a minute all in, so let's do final trades. jenny, you're up first >> sure. seagate recording tomorrow should have reasonable expectations to beat >> what's your final trade for us >> ebs strong developer, therapy -- therapeutics in partnership with the federal government. >> o'leary >> facebookment i thi i think they're going to be spectacular. >> i can't wait fwoit. >> i can't wait, either, jon
there is unusual activity for corning. i bought it before the show. >> best buy. let's get an update on that. they reported earnings last week there has not been one pullback so far staying strong it's going to lift on 100. i want everyone in on that >> thank you that will do it for us kelly, it's all yours. thank you, scott hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange" and here's what's ahead for us we have stocks rallying and bonds rallying and gold and silver rallying and bitcoin, too. how can that be? we'll look at the common denominator driving everything higher these days. other stocks are going um and we'll talk a