tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC December 2, 2020 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
tomorrow, the jobs number on friday we have seen some moderately weaker points of data, the ism employment index going back into contraction, some softer readings on credit card, from the likes of visa and jpmorgan, adding into the picture the market has to absorb a lot to get to this afternoon let's get to wapner and "the half". >> appreciate. welcome to "the halftime report." front and center, a critical question, is wall street ignoring a growing number of risks? are stocks vulnerable into a pullback at the end of the year? joining me are joe, tiffany, joe. let's begin by going to the wall and take a look at where we stand. s&p creeping, albeit, so slightly into the green. nasdaq down 8.
nasdaq down 11.5, muted for the russell 2000 as well jim, that's where i want to begin, of whether we are ignoring some of the risks that exist out there. everything seems so perfect. this setup seems so perfect. everybody keeps listing all the reasons why stocks should go higher i want to remind you, though, a wide rollout of the vaccine is not coming for months. i'm talking a wide rollout the cdc's redfield today, december, january and february will be the most difficult period for public health in the history of this country. that's what he said. i wonder if the market's paying attention to that enough you still have no stimulus, though you do have positive headlines within the last half hour or so you have earnings estimates, which are elevated going into next year. and then you have a group of stocks, jim, enterprise software, some cloud stocks, where valuations are in the clouds >> boy, that's a lot to unpack
thanks for giving me that. there are risks out there. i'm staying invested does that mean i'm ignoring them no, i'm perfectly aware of the fundamental risks which you pointed out, by which i'll say the market tends to look forward six months and says, hey, we're going to have the vaccine out there. there's also technical risks that need to be paid attention to you've got very low put to call ratios, you've got big inflows into equity, etfs and mutual funds. you've got very bullish sentiment. you have m&a picking up. that does say from a technical point of view that we are getting a little buoyant in terms of risk significance it's likely to continue ignoring the risk why? because you're in december in an up year. that's not a time seasonally that people like to take -- realize capital gains. you're likely to see the winners continue to win. here's what's really interesting. the losers, take a look at xle and xlf, the energy and financial etfs they're actually doing really
well at a time frame where you expect them to be sold you usually sell your losers in an up year finally, i will say this -- by the way, that's bullish. that's bullish that the losers aren't being sold. those software stocks you mentioned, that's one area i think is a bubble. i think it's ripe for a correction or worse at any point in time. it's actually already been going on. >> so, tiffany, let's talk about what jim has said because there's a lot there. at times he sounded like tom lee. you sounded like tom lee, who says, since 1945 - >> i'll take that as a compliment. >> december -- the bull, tom lee. this is a compliment tom lee's been right since 1945, tom lee said, when the s&p is up 10% to 15% to this point in the year, it's up 100% of the time in december. bank of america, typically a strong month for stocks and active funds she thinks stocks are going higher a lot of other people think stocks are going higher.
is the market delusional about the here to there, meaning from now until we actually get the vaccine widely rolled out? >> yeah, i don't think the market is delusional i think jim brought up a couple good points. you know, we're talking about -- started off talking about risks. and i think one of the major risks we have, you know, to the economy right now is the lack of stimulus we're sitting around talking about stocks and the market. well, you know, the stock market is not the economy and -- but the stock market needs the economy ultimately to do well. it needs consumers to spend, to be doing well and not struggling and not worried about where their next meal will come from, how they're going to be able to educate their kids with laptops or lack thereof. that's a very real thing anded so, you know, jim, also talked about fundamental risks
we're fundamental investors. we're looking for opportunities. again, you know i like tech but not tech with a broad brush. tech that is enabling other businesses to do well. tech that is forward-thinking and being pioneers, if you will, in certain spaces. quick pivot companies that are thinking forward about tech. that's what we like right now. >> so, weiss, help me figure this out credit suisse today says the market is at a critical inflection point and maybe that inflection point comes this week with a round of earnings that we're going to have in an area of the market that jim called a bubble and that others are worried about, too. even the biggest of supporters of some of these stocks in enterprise software and cloud say they are way extended. you've got snowflake, octa all reporting today after the bell
i bring these up because i think a lot of our viewers own these stocks docusign, cloudera they report after the bell you had joel greenblat talking with leslie picker, and although he didn't call this space out by name, he was asked about it and said there is froth in a lot of money-losing stocks that have had huge returns stocks that are up like 100% even though they 100% don't make any money. do we need to worry about these, steve? is this an inflection point when these companies report over the next 24 and 48 hours >> absolutely not. it's not an inflection points for the market we've seen the s&p reporting these are one-off companies. i know joel personally, i know him as an investor he is a brilliant investor he's also got a value bent but the companies he's calling out -- he didn't call them out specifically, he's absolutely right on we saw it with zoom yesterday. we'll see it with zscaler that,
by the way, hasn't reported an up earnings relative to their -- to consensus in over a year. okta as well, they're serial missers. the rising tied of pulling forward, work from home or anywhere has lifted all boats. eventually markets shake out but none of those are market stocks, in my view they may cause pain -- >> what if the whole group pops, though i'll throw in another one. mongodb is 31 times sales, reports on december 8 lt snowflake, i mentioned them already, not profitable, $83 million market cap okta, not profitable docusign not profitable. pager duty not profitable. i could go on but i think you get the point. >> i get the point but to me there's no readthrough to the
rest of the market or portfolio in general they treed them as one-offs. you could have made the case on a poster child for what you're talking about, which is zoom and zoom missed and zoom's back up today it's still over 400 bucks, still at a ridiculous multiple, but it hasn't impacted the market the market was going down anyway yesterday, although some segments of technology, like qualcomm, et cetera, did very well yesterday so i just don't think it really matters. it matters from the headlines. it matters from stocks that have quintupled or up ten-fold. i've bought a lot more because that went down 25% in an announced offering it got cheaper look, there's air below them i've avoided them. i can do very well without owning them. >> let's talk about a stock -- steve doesn't want to talk about stocks that aren't impacting the market he says, these are their own
individual stories if they fall apart, they won't bring the whole market down. let's talk about a stock today, a big one that is affecting the market that's salesforce. salesforces does the deal with slack, pay up $27.7 billion. some analysts don't like the acquisition for a variety of reasons. you own salesforce is this representative of this sort of bubble narrative that's out there of -- salesforce is willing to pay up -- slack isn't profitable they pay a lot maybe that's the price of doing business to get in the ring with microsoft but they still did the deal at a high valuation >> they did. and i purchased salesforce in the wake of the announcement they were going to go out and purchase slack i'm going to share with you that basically everyone who comes on the network has said since that, that salesforce is a phenomenal
technology company, and that this acquisition, while marc benioff is paying a rich valuation for slack, it should be ignored in the interim because in the long run, he'll be able to integrate that into the platform. >> i've heard that kind of language before. i've heard that language before. that kind of deal, they paid up. forget about it. doesn't matter you ignore it now because they're going to reap the rewards later on you heard that, too, from other people about 20 years ago. >> i just told you, 100%, that's exactly what everyone is going to communicate to you. and in addition to that, it's marc benioff doing it. he gets that managerial pass that other types of ceos making this acquisition would not get the deal it going to close in fiscal year 2022 i'm frustrated i'm disappointed i'm down 11% on my stock purchase
i'm not happy about it, but what am i going to do right here? i'm not going to sell out of the position i'm going to maintain it i understand the frustration that's going to come in the coming quarters as it relates to the salesforce share price, and ultimately it's a position that i believe at some point will turn to profitability. >> the reason we're having this conversation and i wanted to lead our show with it today is because i don't want to give it a pass i don't want to give the environment a pass i want to have a conversation about whether investors are ignoring some warning signs that may be out there because we're all feeling euphoric about the vaccine. and we're so hopeful that society is going to return to normal as soon as possible, maybe sooner than it actually is that's why i want to have the conversation >> yeah, you know, when you
frame it like that, i understand the question we are kind of living in this world where these companies, especially the ones we're talking about right now, these tech companies, stay-at-home stocks, quote/unquote, have really been flying high. there's good news. there's finally a light at the end of the tunnel, but i think things are going to get real really soon. i keep coming back to stimulus i keep coming back to people who, you know, one half of the country has -- they've been able to maintain their income and their expenses have dropped in, you know, in 2020 significantly, right? some people that are kind of right on that edge how am i going to pay my mortgage or my rent come january 1st when those moratoriums are lifted all of these things and then we have at least until the end of january, so we have a new administration in who can
actually maybe do some things about that you're right there's no hope right now for a stimulus we know it's coming. it's going to come but we just don't have a date and it's probably not going to come before the end of the year. that's going to get really real. >> forgive me for interrupting you. you own salesforce as well do you like this deal? >> yeah. i don't like what they paid for it i don't really see greatle things in, you know, in the short term yes, who knows what's going to happen yes, to joe's point, they might integrate slack. what i would have liked to have seen from salesforce and something i've been wanting for a long time is for them to come out with a less expensive offering that would have been a better play overall for the deal, i think they paid too much
the stock right now is not great. i don't like to sit back and watch things i buy go down that doesn't make me feel good i don't know if this deal is going to be enough to turn that around i don't think it is in the short term i don't. >> joe, you own docusign which is on my list. docusign is up 185% year to date its forward pe -- joe, do you know what their forward pe is? do did you know what their forward pe is? >> somewhere probably about 600. >> half that but the point is well taken. 320. half that. good guess gets me to where i wanted to go. you know what i'm saying >> okay. absolutely it's emerging growth that's exactly what it is. it's a company, and i own very few of these emerging growth companies, but it is a company i
believe has introduced a digital transformation that is going to stay with us, not just beyond the moment of now, but many years to come. what's the competition for docusign is there any you have adobe sign, you have hello sign from dropbox. beyond that, that's it so how about i show up somewhere and shine? how about i show up somewhere and sign how about that competition >> you mean mobility does mobility exist in this economy anymore? i'm not sure about that, scott >> i think it's going to hopefully once there's a vaccine. maybe you actually show up and do some things like go to a gym and you won't buy peloton hand over fist. maybe you will i'm just raising the issue because i wanted to have the conversation about some -- zscaler, do you know what the pe is take a guess i like the way this is going. >> i don't. >> just throw a number out. >> 200.
>> double that. >> you were twice too high and now you're device too low. 476.3 times forward pe the stock is up 200% year to date another area that i wanted to get into, semis, weiss i get semis are in everything. there's a reason why they've gone up. semis are at all time highs. are some of these stocks too extended >> sure, some are too extended i take a look out. here's the difference. you and i and everybody else on this show, we live as people today. we focus on today. markets live in the future and focus on what's going to be a year, two years, five years out. so, that's different while some stocks are extended, micron, which i own, included, even shows up cheap on pe, definitely compared to what you mentioned, you didn't even get to okta, which is 2,000 times
next year's number, they will grow - >> i didn't do that one. >> you don't - >> i didn't do that one because they don't have any earnings >> exactly they're losing money but if you look at the best forward, it's 2100 times earnings next year, if they make money, which is a stretch. so, i agree with you some are out of control and some will never catch up to the hype. micron is not one of those they came out, they preannounced that things are going great. it's down to duoply. i don't mind sticking with it because it will grow into that the others i have, i don't mind that either. in terms of salesforce, benioff has more at stake than anybody that owns the stock but it's also seen slowing growth he recognized -- he says, i have this ridiculous high currency so i'm going to go out and buy this company. i don't know why he bought it. the old saying, why buy the cow
when the milk is so cheap, they've already been working with slack the difference between microsoft and salesforce is microsoft created teams because their franchise is that strong and that global that they can build it they don't have to spend $28 billion to buy it. >> you guys all have a defender and a loud one in jim cramer, who is -- i've got to find this, who is lighting me up on twitter right nour i told him he better come out and make this case to all of you. he says, and a lot of you, i think, are making similar points you refuse -- to me, you refuse to accept these are land and expand companies where management is laser focused with a huge t.a.m., total addressable market, and a sense that if you unpack the story it is huge because of their go-to market strategies come on, pal that's what jim cramer says. so is that what i'm missing,
what jim says about why people -- i think a good portion of our viewers have gotten into these stocks, farmer jim, and they should stay there and not worry about some of these bloated metrics that i've said for all of the reasons that jim just laid out? >> listen, i'm only saying it's a good move in terms of salesforce those other names, those okta and data dogs and mongdb, most people in them can't tell you what they do i've seen that before, i've seen that in the late '90s when cisco and juniper, everybody said they were going to go to the sky. if you dropped a box of electric components in front of them, they didn't know who was cisco or lucent. salesforce, i think, stands apart. i don't think you can knock marc benioff. he's been a genius for a long time the acquisition of slack is both defense to make sure neither
slack, zoom, teams can get into the salesforce customer relationship management, while at the same time giving hm a new area to grow organically once this is in place i set salesforce apart, but i'm telling you, that one area of software stocks, it's the only area of the market that is no touch to me. it's no touch. >> it's just an area i keep hearing about from people who have been on this show some of whom are investors in those companies, who love the companies. they love the growth outlook they don't necessarily love where the stocks are now because they think they have been extended too far that's the only reason i'm bringing this up to have this conversation i'm not casting doubt on the fundamentals or first mover status of any of these businesses even people who love the companies are telling me the stocks are too extended. >> can and they're right and jim is wrong
i'm surprised jim is saying that he lived through '99 he's lived through many marks. we've seen this before they are bubbles companies that are selling that had at those prices that haven't earned the right by great execution, quarter after quarter, year after year, in all environments, shouldn't be selling at those multiples, period, end of story i don't know where jim is coming from on this. >> you're going to find out because he's getting micced up -- is he ready? there he is. were you being sarcastic or were you -- >> yes, yes. because that's -- i want to strangle him land to expand and unpack this and pull the thread. let's pull the thread on this. let me just say these are all companies trying to take over before anybody else can take over i want to be slack slack was not able to grow,
although it was growing at the enterprise at the end and people are not even bothering to read the conference call. when you get a zscaler -- frank is coming on our show, he's snowflake. it is very hard to evaluate what snowflake is worth what i think happening here is the growth managers of the world, like 1999, they don't know how to value them either. you didn't know how to value zoom at 50 times sales or snowflake. all they know is snowflake is the fastest growing large company in america what do you pay for that and they're all trying to figure it out and no one really knows but some guys step up and pay for it and they think it could be tesla of technology, but i think the problem is, they don't know how to value them so they value them very high these are not hydrogen full cell companies. it could be the next microsoft
i'm not going to disagree that there's a bubble, but the problem with putting a pin, so to speak, in the bubble s what do we pay for the fastest growing company in america what should we pay >> hey, jimmy. >> yes >> jimmy, don't you have a flashback to scott mcnealy 20 years ago when he was addressing sun microsystems as company at 100 times sales and he was saying, look, if i'm selling you my stock, you're saying you're going to get ten years of sales with no cost of goods sold, no taxes, everything's going to go right, nobody's going to come in and compete. i hear what you just said. i think it ends in tears i think you think that, too, but you don't know when. >> i endorsed salesforce when it was $8 - >> let's say snowflake. >> and they were losing a fortune. >> that was a great bet by me. benioff had come on. the stock had fallen and fallenpy said, i think you have a winner, i happen to love the
product. that's the problem, they love the product. this is not like 1999 companies where the public never even cared about it these companies are doing amazing things do you need okta as a passport to be known who you are online yes. i don't even know if todd mckinnon thinks it should be traded at that level they're really important, they are growing fast some are going to win like salesforce, some are going to lose it is literally the crowd, and i know because you could say well the crowd is typically who you want to bet against. le crowd trying to figure out what price >> jimmy >> i'm sorry, what this is. >> i'll take salesforce and agree with you while you were getting mic'd up, i said, put that one aside it's 50 times earnings put that aside >> tesla - >> let's look at snowflake let's take snowflake if you'll just indulge me. az 86 billion market cap
i don't remember brad gersne rechlt's range for the t.a.m., i think it was $80 to $100 million for the whole t.a.m. his company is worth the whole t.a.m., excluding cost of goods sold or anything going wrong this is a question of when, if not it this is cisco -- >> i was surprised snowflake went from 230 to 300 i thought it was going to go down and i speak to frank and i think frank is amazing he told me about service now to the winners go the spoils what we decided is everyone could be the winner until someone loses. that's where we are right now. >> are you at all worried -- >> i guess, jim, i wanted to have this conversation to wonder for our viewers if this bubble bursts, if it does, is that
enough to disrupt the market at large or is there enough of a rotation into the energies - >> no. >> which is ripping today and some of these other value spaces that the market can withstand a total upset in one of the most high-flying parts of it? >> i think the answer is absolutely i think that this is a group that actually is not that many stocks unfortunately, a lot of etfs that carry these you can talk about crowdstrike and zscaler. you're talking about a lot of companies that sound like they're the same thing floud flare, it's all one big piece. the piece is about the incredible rush to get on the cloud and out of the -- and on prem. it's an amazing thing. steve, you and i have gone around where's josh do we have josh today? he's long nvidia
i agree with him my dog, nvidia died, but not the company. >> tiffany's long nvidia she's here tiffany, you know this nvidia deal - >> hi, jim >> hi, tiffany if they pull out the deal with a.r.m., hey, who's left? i saw bob swann on earlier he's a nice guy. >> jim - >> no, no, absolutely. i'm there with you, jim. absolutely >> jim, i have people -- tiffany's in docusign, joe in docusign we probably have the robin hooders in docusign -- >> have you used it? >> i -- >> i bought a house, i didn't even know i bought it because of docusign i signed something and then i owned a house. >> yes, i know i hear you herein lies the problem you're laying out we've probably all used docusign, but does that justify a forward pe of 320 times and a
stock that's up 185% year to date >> nvidia had two times pe when i fell in love with it but it turned out 12 pe sken a genius. >> but his business wasn't -- wasn't a pandemic-related play. >> what if docusign is - >> docusign is not, though. >> who else do you like? >> docusign -- sorry >> go ahead. docusign is not a pandemic play. i was using docusign a way before the pandemic, a ton of people were. i don't think we can discuss, for instance, like the example you're giving, docusign in the same situation as a zoom zoom really, really took off during the pandemic. i totally get why it did but docusign is not that case. i feel docusign is more of this slow and steady pace
there was definitely increased users and uptick during the pandemic, but i don't think we're going -- i think that was -- the pandemic was almost like a commercial -- >> of course. >> it's impossible to keep up their growth rate post-pandemic, isn't it >> i don't know. >> you can buy something -- -- i think the s&p global deal. now, look, look, all of these are -- they're just -- once you know how to value them -- how do you value the winner in a market when they may be the only one growing incredibly scott, how do you do it? >> there's no rule book. >> tiffany, i like that. can i steal no rule book >> you can as long as you give me credit. >> steve weiss go ahead and then joe. steve, go ahead. >> speechless. >> isn't that exactly the point,
that you can't figure out the value of it. that's not a positive thing, jim. that's a bad thing and that's why when it bursts, it's going to come down hard docusign is ridiculous of course it's a covid play, just as zoom is. if they pull forward demand, it will stay with them, but what sane universe should docusign be valued five times what adobe is valued at? >> anything north of ten times sale, we just just won't ten times sales, which leaves 50 companies we won't own because i fear coming in one day and these those companies go down and a day when general motors goes to 50 and i'm thinking, what was i doing not buying something six times earnings instead of 60 times sales. i have to understand the growth investor's mind. remember the growth inversz, some are still around. whatever is the fastest growing, there's no limit to what they'll
pay. that's the problem with these. docusign is a great company. i want it to come down but it won't because it's the only game in town. >> jim, wrap it up and then jim has to go back to work. >> why because i don't have makeup and i look like i'm sick >> i didn't even know you didn't have makeup. >> how do i look in terms of -- never mind. >> jim, you look great go ahead >> so, i purchased docusign about a year ago, before the pandemic everything you're suggesting as it relates to emerging growth, scott, i agree with you. the valuation is ridiculous. we haven't even mentioned the stock, which i brought up in january of 2019 purchased at $26. jim knows what name that is. you know what the forward pe is on that stock? 2,500. that's twilio. emerging growth is overvalued. however, emerging growth, if
there is to be a correction, will find those source of funds going into established growth. this is different from '99 in '99 there was no alternative when the bubble burst for the emerging technology names. this time around there is. >> what you know they call that? >> what are you going to say. >> apple, amazon, microsoft -- >> you know what you call it >> no. >> joe's going to love this. quality. right, joe, quality? >> no, quality - >> quality momentum. >> like the joe etf. unscheduled but fabulous appearance, jim. thank you. >> i love you guys what am i stealing what >> what did you say? >> i'm stealing something. >> no rule book. no rule book. >> no rule book. is there any real overlap between "mad money" and this show i don't think there's no rule book. >> no rule book. >> what do you have tonight? >> pvh, which is not overvalued,
so to speak. brad jacobs. u.p.s., look, these are undervalued companies. there's, frankly, a rule book. >> we can't wait for it. i can't thank you enough thanks for coming out. that was fun. >> i want you to double click on it, pull a thread on it and i also, by the way, put a pin in it >> good stuff. jim cramer catch jim on "mad money" at 6:00 with another great lineup. disney surging 25% over the last month we'll tell you the number and we'll debate it in our call of the day. it's down to the wire,
welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update wisconsin's governor, tony evers, calling president trump's attempts to overturn the state's election results a, quote, assault on democracy, end quote. the wisconsin supreme court is considering a request from the trump campaign to disqualify more than 220,000 ballots in two heavily democratic counties.
norwegian cruise lines is keeping its ships docked through the end of february and some march cruises will be suspended as well. and an update on a story we covered back in october. brianna hill gave birth while taking her bar exam and now she's got her test resultsback and she passed she completed the test at the hospital after delivering that little guy, her son. congratulations to all that is the news update this hour scott, back to you. >> those are the kind of stories we're here for, sue. thank you. appreciate that. bullish call on disney let's talk about it. price target raised, new street high, $175 at citi they talk about continuing momentum in the streaming business, go figure. it's our call of the day, farmer jim. tiffany, you own it. farmer, you're up first. 175. can disney get to that level
>> i think pretty easily it's about to break out to an all-time high. it's right on the cusp of that this is a great hybrid stock it's streaming so it has that growth engine but it's a reopen stock with the studio and parks and broadcast business i want to leave some room for tiffany, but it has half the subscriber content numbers as netflix. somewhat comparable in terms of market cap but they don't net nix doesn't have marvel, 20th century fox, et cetera, et cetera there's a lot to like about disney >> tiffany, anything you disagree with? >> no, no, i totally agree with jim. also remember, disney owns a portion of hulu, too, so they have streaming covered all around i definitely like that play. just to reiterate what jim said. definitely a reopening stock they used to rely on around 30% of the revenue from theme parks so that's only going to get
better as we come through this pandemic i just like it all around. last time i was on the show, i think i talked about the fact that it's a whole new world, and it is. >> all right pardon the pun >> for more on the disney call, check out the article on cnbc pro. you can go to cnbc.com/pro and have a good real. to rahel solomon with a few more calls on the street. >> a bit of a mixed bag starting with verizon and upgrade to buy. price target jumps to 66 bucks a share. analysts are point out they're not raging bulls but the stock is cheap, trading at half the market pe. t-mobile was their top pick. winnebago price goes to $67 but there's been lots of talk of the tailwind as short-term trips are more appealing but the industry was already in the midst of a boom with baby
boomers taking to power sports and they expect growth post-pandemic. the last one i know jim labentha likes, and jim cramer, thermo fisher, price target is 570 a share. the company says they should reinvest covid related cash flows into other opportunities >> rahel, thank you. jim, she's right you own thermo and also winnebago. that's where i want to spend the time give me a thought, this price target, 67 bucks, outperform at wedbush. >> regardless of what the pros and cons are with the pandemic and reopening, the industry was in a secular boom before that happened you saw winnebago hit 72 earlier this summer. i trimmed shortly below there. it reset to a lower level as reopening became more in vogue
and people thought they wouldn't sell as many campers camper sales are still going through the roof they also recently bought the motor boat company they're doing a lot of things right. for the last five years they've beat estimates on every quarter. they'll have another quarterly report this month. i think when we talk about it then, we'll see it going higher once again. >> watching it right now thank you for that. up next, the top etfs to watch today. as we go to break, take a look at the s&p sectors out there shaping up on a fairly muted day for the s&p. 3662, that's where we trade. we're up half a point. energy is leading the way. a lot of big names within that space. i'll mention some of those on absi tt e dehaar solutely ripping today back after this. it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets?
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for six years. is this finally the time for them to shine? >> bob, thanks for having me on. i would definitely say it's time to think about small caps in your asset allocation. you said six years i had to go back to 2003 to find the total return with perfect hindsight where small caps beat large caps it's been many, many years in the making that tide is turning, thanks to therapeutics small companies represent the heart of the economy, main street, to so say. if you think things are going to get better and have optimism going forward, small caps are your play. >> andrew, i want to ask you about the airline etfs i've been puzzled by the trading activictivit activity, this is jets they had $34 million in assets at the beginning of the pandemic and now has $2.7 billion in assets they had this enormous amount of trading activity, enormous amount of fund flows
can you explain what's going on with airline trading >> yeah, absolutely. first of all, we're in a stock picker's market and the biggest i've seen in ten years what that means, stock pickers trade on theme thematic etfs will get assets. airlines, reduces single stock risk, and airlines have room to grow the original stocks in this move were the teches and stay at home, you're looking to gain some alpha, airlines have a considerable amount to go. we heard the news cruise lines are going to delay i don't think airlines will delay once this vaccine comes out, people will travel. delta, united, those major carriers can make up that gap they experienced and get back to where the other stocks have gone that's 10%, 20%, maybe more. >> don't forget all our videos on our website, etfedgecnbc.com. an exclusive look at predictions coming up.
apache, holly frontier among the names rocking today. what do you make of this space >> the only two names i would own would be chevron or exxonmobil the top 20 names in the s&p 500 today, 17 are energy names >> that's it, the only ones you'd own? that's where a lot of the conversation on this show has been lately, with pete and john. i know pete is in exxon and chevron. the exxon buy was a new one. john talked about those yesterday, too why just those two over all of these others which have are having a really good day and a really good run here >> because i'm investing for a little bit more than the next four to six weeks. and i think for energy, that's exactly what you would be doing. there's nothing wrong with placing a trade on energy. it's fine to do that and it will probably work out. once president-elect biden's administration comes in, i want to understand what the energy policy is going to be, what the
regulatory environment is going to be. i have a feeling that that's going to hold back some of the appreciation that we're seeing for energy going forward. >> that stock is just ripping today. joe, thanks. bond yields are soaring. how traders are playing that this was an unexpected bill not covered by my health insurance. and this is the aflac duck who helped me cover it.
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it was a lapse in judgment. at&t, we called this house meeting because you advertise gig-speed internet, but we can't sign up for that here. yeah, but i'm just like warming up to those speeds. you've lived here two years. the personal attacks aren't helping, karly. don't you have like a hot pilates class to get to or something? [ muffled scream ] stop living with at&t. xfinity can deliver gig to the most homes.
watching the ten-year yield. let's bring in brian stutland there now for the trade there. hey, god to see you. i'm looking right now at 95 basis points where are we going what's the trade >> we're headed right for 1%, aren't we, scott three things happened yesterday. s&p 500 up, interest rates up, u.s. dollar down when those three things occur and you see outside moves like we saw yesterday it's typically a signal for reinflation happening, but what's interesting about yesterday is typically that type of trade move, the outsized moves doesn't occur unless the s&p 500 is 25% off its highs. yesterday that happened when the s&p was at its highs so i'm really starting to worry that reflation becomes inflation and for that rope i think interest
rates are going above 1% i'd be a seller of the march ten-year note futures contract that's a way to sort of hedge rates rising here. i'd be a several at the 137.12 area, looking for it to trade down to 136.24 put a stop at 12 11 is probably the upside where i can get out and maybe the trend stops, but if we're in this inflation environment, i triple dog dare you that this is true inflation right now we east got to be careful here and on this trade, i'm risking are $625 to make 625 though it's 1-1 it's a good payout risk. >> something to watch as we get into a new year. >> we'll take a quick one and do final trades when we come back next before money, people traded goods.
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>> all right let's do final trades. tiffany, why don't you start us off today. >> sure. ulta they report earnings i'm loving their announcement of the partnership to have mini stores within target i think it's the best of both worlds expecting great things from them in holiday season also they are up 32% in the past month alone, and i love it >> you've already owned it and bought a little bit more recently, is that right? >> i did, yeah, absolutely, and i'm not deterred by that whole announcement with sephora and kohl's that doesn't make any sense to me sephora customers is not a kohl's target so i think the ulta and target partnership is great. >> steve weiss, what have you got? >> juma. fundamentals better since the quarter. i'd step up. >> farmer james? >> alphabet, all-time high
today. does that catch anybody by surprise i think it does. >> yeah. >> nice move. >> all right joe, last but not least, what have you got for us? >> perkinelmer, about to make a new all-time high and scott, your showup and sipe, that's the line of the week. >> guys, thanks, thanks for watching it was fun today "the exchange" is now. >> thanks, scott welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. november saw a huge leadership change in the market as energy and financials broke out along with sill version conquer and even bitcoin will this pattern continue into year end we will ask. plus a biotech warning traders saying vaccine stocks are starting to trade too much like speculative plays as moderna rallies 120% in a month a look at where it can go. and one firm getting bullish on airb