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tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  December 11, 2020 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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it's 8:00 a.m. at disney headquarters it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street "squawk alley" is live.
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good friday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." what a week for ipos door dash making its long away debut and what an entrance they made all of them soaring in their first days of trading. door dash up 86% air bnb up 113%. let's get to disney with shares surging after its investor day, carl >> indeed. it's adding 125 points to the dow. all the streaming and news from last night and the theatrical news
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let's get to julia >> disney shares up more than 12% after dramatically boosting its forecast for its streaming subscriber base between 300 and 350 million by 2024. that's up from 137 million subscribers right now. disney plus is the center piece of this. this comes after the company announced the app nearly has 87 million subscribers. that's at the top end of the growth forecast four years ahead of schedule. and it's raising the price for disney plus by a dollar in march to $8 a month. this price increase reflects the investment that the company is making in a lot more original content, including 100 new titles that will be added annually to disney plus. disney's ceo says the company
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can be nimble to decide which content should go in which place. what content should have a traditional release in theaters and which should go directly to disney plus. another option disney has laid out is a simultaneously release model. it will be releasing its an matsmats -- animated film in theaters in march. it will be offering to disney plus subscribers for an addit n additional $30 fee it seems bullish in response to last night's event laura martin saying that disney's pricing, bundling, branding and tidsing decision double the value of content decision which accelerates subscriber growth. morgan stanley saying if it achieves if its goals it would leave streaming as the single largest business of the company and complete a transformation and open up additional opportunities over time.
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now guys i have to point out that 75% of analysts have a buy or overweight rating on the stock and is trading around an all time high. >> that's quite a quote from laura martin i do wonder where you think it leaves theaters today because black widow suggest they're not going to go full warner. amc raises some dead financing today although they have warned they will run out of cash by the end of january >> i think we have to remember that disney was the largest contributor to the box office last year. we're talking over 40% of box office revenues went to disney films. what they decide to do with their movies will be incredibly important to the theater chains. the fact they didn't decide to totally do release offer things directly to consume errs the sa day they are available to theaters i think they understand the
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value of doing theatrical releases a lot of films will go to disney plus i do think it's a threat there's if question of what is the marketplace look like say six months from now post-vaccine and john and carl, we'll be talking about this later with the ceo of imax. it will be interesting to see if there's a surge in demand for movie going. whether people are just used to watching things at home. >> yeah. we'll see. i am looking forward, at least with certain films getting back in front of a really big screen. we'll have imax which makes some of the biggest screens later on. apple bought the business in july 2019 to do exactly this
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if apple were starting a year and a half later, that would be bad news why is qualcomm down nearly 7% i can guess it's because apple's recent chip effort the m1 has gotten such solid reviews. the look further into this and other tech news, joining us mark mays happy friday to both of you. mark, my take is that if people are looking at this apple starting modem work news and are negative on qualcomm because the m1 looks so good versus intel, they're kind of missing it here because arm is an option for everybody to go and make their own custom chips if they want to compete with intel if you want to make your own modem, there's not some arm out there making you help your own modem. it's not like people can follow in apple's footsteps, right? >> i think you're right. this topic is less important to my coverage universe of
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internet, where really the topic of the day is ipos that have been off the charts not just this week but this year as a whole. that's really been dominating kind of my conversations as robust environment i think you're right this is an example of it's hard to predict how markets are going to react even when news is out there. i think john you mentioned this shouldn't come as a surprise yet. you're seeing qualcomm stock down 7%. it reminds me a bit of the pricing of the action on some of the internet ipos, this week alone, that have popped over 100% despite the fact we're experimenting with new ways to set pricing in the ipos to deal with one day pops. it's hard to predict how the public markets and the retail markets are going to react but interesting dynamic. >> what do you make of these
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pops that we have seen they are very exciting to look at the stocks move but it suggests that investors had really hard time or the company and the bankers had a hard time gauging demand and ended up leaving money on the table and maybe it leaves less upside for retail investors >> there is no perfect formula for how to take companies public the direct listings have been done most of the stocks did not perform all that well in their first year or so post ipo. the new book building measures haven't always worked. i think it's part of the supply demand there's not a lot of stock out there for these businesses but the retail market has gotten very active here and can be
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unpredictable. we do tend to see bigger one day pops not surprisingly with the better known brands out there where say a unity software is an amazing company. they had this similar book building process they had a more modest one day bump not a household name i think a lot of that is tied to the retail side of the markets >> there's stories about the ipo and reminding people of the dynamic that's been in place and it's not a signal of an immediate top but maybe a medium term top are you going there? are you seeing analogs to the late '90s? >> yeah. it feels like the rational exuberance in the ipo market that we saw in the tech bubble the money left on the table which is difference between the ipo price and the first day
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stock price, both door dash and air bnb is close to what we saw in the ipo market just last year where the average money left on the table is 62 million. if you go back and compare that to the height of the tech bubble, on average it was 78 million. door dash leaving 32 million on the table and air bnb 58 million doesn't hit the prior levels plus, while door dash was up over 80% and air bnb up over 100%, the top five ipos this year were up nearly 200% it's been a big year in ipo land the best since 2014. >>. >> when we look at these valuatio valuations, both of these stocks
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are trading at about 30 times sales. the average price to sale ratio of ipos last year was ten times. how can investor justify getting into these at these levels given not only that stat but all the other stocks out there to choose from >> i'm not sure that they can. the question of how expensive they are trading at 30 times versus ten times last year is extremely rich given the lack of profitability. if you peak back to the tech bubble for further context, you see stocks trading at 46 times sales on average 30 times is historically high. it doesn't reach the tech bubble levels i think both companies have very compelling business models people understand why but just not at these valuations. >> yeah. not sure people should want to be investing at tech bubble levels any way thank you for those insights
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>> thank you when we come back, keep calm and carry on the ceo of meditation app calm will join us after the break new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database. claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed.com/home.
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meditation and relaxation app calm is reporting an up tick in downloads and engagements
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just closed a series c this week valued at $2 billion joining us is co-founder and co-ceo alex. great to see you thanks for the time today. >> thank you we're very happy with the new funding round and excited to be here today >> you've got some big names too. goldman's on board tpg. i think our viewers are probably familiar with your marketing, at least a little bit just why why now? is this about riding a technology tail wind or a moment we're in as a society? >> i think it's a bit of both. we have had a tremendous year. the world has had a pretty terrible year and anxiety and stress are on the rise we know to support millions of people with the tool that we offer. we're always getting hit up by investors and normally we wouldn't potentially be raising right now but we thought this
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would be worth putting some more on the balance sheet even though we have been profitable for many years and bring on some other great investors. we're excited to have goldman sachs. it was kind of an opportunistic thing really >> i've got two questions on costs. one is custom rack is it any different given the con tent business you're in and content creation i wonder relative to other types of content how expensive that is to produce >> costs is pretty favorable for us partly because we have great organic tail winds people are having life changing experiences whether it's getting better sleep or reduces anxiety. they tend to tell a lot of friends about it we have really effective paid
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marketing online on top of that we do work with some of the best talent in the world. we have partnership with lebron james. math t matthew mcconaughey. the economics of the business are great. to the point about content, it's a very favorable business model in audio content is very cost effective to create unlike video which is very expensive. we're saying very high margins and as a result able to spend great health and profitably on marketing. >> are you going to get into referrals to mental health professionals like mint or credit karma for wellness?
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>> we see ourselves as much mor of an app. we have hundreds of companies very large and very small buying calm for their employee bases. that's really fast growing part of our business. we always managed calm being more than an app we want to create a lifestyle brand. one of the most meaningful and valuable brands for the 21st century. the reason we think we can do that is because mental health issues are so important. this year, 2020 has shown that we really need the take care of our minds and calm is there to support. we see a bright future ahead and valuations in the billions are great. new expectations but everybody in the world has a mind. it's big >> tell us how you think about data and your policies around it
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because not only is your data personal and health related. it had to do with how people feel to what degree will you keep that, are you preki inprotectin and are you outlining what you will and won't do with it? >> we have a really robust policy and as we started doing big, big deals with corporations who have very high standards in terms of data protection, beyond the sort of standard consumers, we're taking that very seriously. we have incredibly high security, incredibly high compliance and getting better all the time we take this data very seriously and doing all we can to protect it it's a very good point >> finally, just in terms of international distribution, where does the u.s. fit. are ywe the number one market and i guess who is two and three? what does that say about the
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mental state of the global economy now? >> the u.s. is firmly number one in terms of paying members and downloads and things we do have a big, big audience outside of the u.s the uk is our number two then followed by canada and australia. we have been sort of last couple of years started internationalizing property. w we're in seven different languages. we just launched japanese this year we're excited to see how the business can grow internationally too. >> i think it's fascinating, to your point about the business model. you can see why the margins would be fat on a relative basis. we look forward to hearing more from you thanks >> thank you very much take a look at shares of lordstown motors jumping almost 10% after goldman initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $31 price target. today's move caps off a roh ekitthstk ill down
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almost 15% we'll be right back.
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starting to get headlines from likes of cvs about when we might see some vaccinations in this country meg has opinibeen covering it >> that panel vote was one for the history books. the vote came in at 17-4 with one in favor of the vaccine. we reached out to the folk who is were in that no group or the abstainition we heard back from a couple of them the voting question involved kids age 16 and up people starting at age 16 for this vaccine dr. kim said the sticking point was the age. i would have voted yes had the language been 18 years of age and older. guys, the indication for the pfizer vaccine is 16 years and
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older in the uk. that could be what the fda moves on here as well. this morning, the fda saying it's acting quickly to authorize this vaccine putting out a statement saying that following the advisory committee meeting outcome yesterday, it's told pfizer it will rapidly work toward finalization and issuance of an emergency use authorize. that could mean within days. the time line from there is that is being worked out now. this afternoon an outside group of advisers to the cdc is scheduled to meet and on sunday they will vote on specific recommendations on this vaccine and when ever the fda gives ta green light within 24 hours almost three million doses of this vaccine will start to ship across the country guys >> all right meg, thank important news there as we head to break, imax ceo will join us in the cnbc exclusive in jusa t few moments.
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> welcome back, everybody. despite president trump's veto threat, the senate is voting this morning to advance the $740 billion defense funding bill through a procedural hurdle so it can get a final vote a bit later today. president trump says he will not sign it unless congress strips some legal protections from
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social media companies right now, it is getting more than enough votes to override a veto for the first time, both members of a presidential ticket are on time magazine's cover as person of the year editor in chief edward says that joe biden and kamala harris represent something historic as they take office in a divided country suffering through an enormous pandemic. amid the global gloom, take a look at that beautiful sight some lights are shining in japan. this is the kingdom of lights show featuring 13 million led bulbs. and in keeping with the time, temperatures were checked at the gate and face masks are required a nice sight john, back to you. thank you. let's turn to julia. >> thanks so mump for joining us today in the midst of what is a
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very interesting time for the movie business just yesterday. we heard from disney that they aim to distribute some of their films in theaters at the same time they offer them on their streaming service disney plus for an additional $30 fee. i'm wondering what you make of all of this and what kind of threat it poses to the movie business >> they kept about 7 movies. all the big marvel movies. in the q and a bob said we made $13 billion last year. he said we will be flexible during the pan demic and the
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movies you referred to are early releases, march kind of things i think what he did is very smart. while we're in the middle of a pandemic, especially in the united states, he said we're going to be flexible but he said to protect that box office when things change, we're going to change i thaug it wought it was good. the last point is the buzz coming out of this the next star wars will be directed by patty jenkins. i know they announce a lot of tv episodes and things but as with the movie business, the buzz comes out of the theatrical. >> you are right there was an affirmation of a commitment to the theatrical business sounds like it will be a will the of flexibility deciding what content will go straight to diz mi plus. i do want to point out this is stands in contrast to what we heard from warner media. they announced for the next year going to be releasing 18 films
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in theaters at the same time as they are available on hbo max. does that pose a bigger threat to the theatrical movie going business >> i wouldn't use the word threat i think it was mostly a lack of understanding of a lot of elements of how the theatrical business works first of all, when people make movies, they are different than making tv things for streaming when big directors like chris or danny or patty jenkins envision their movies, they envision them on the big carescreen and they o special effects that way they telling a visual story in a certain way. that doesn't translate well to the small screen it's not what the talent wants
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they want put it on their platform our attendance is at 100% of where it was pre-pandemic. i just don't understand why warner media would give up that box office it doesn't make any sense except during a pandemic. >> you mean it doesn't make sense that warner media made that commitment for the next 18 films but the end of next year do you think the theater chains will refuse to show some of those films. what is the upshot of that not making sense >> first of all, we'll see whether that holds for all films over that period of time i think once theatrical comes
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back, and i think it will come roaring back, i think they will look at those numbers and for movies, especially later in the year like "suicide squad," i think they will look at the market and say this doesn't make sense. i think it's what happens to the talent you're in the studio business and take a long term view, you have to be response iive to tha. the interesting question is the international piece. hbo max is only in the united states
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the same people that own regal are one of the biggest exhibiters in europe amc owns nordic cinemas. i think it will be interesting to see whether they play it or not. >> rich, it's carl your point about the talent is so well taken because we know what christopher noland said we had dwayne johnson on our air earlier. he said those relationships need to be protected. how much can the industry use the talent as a wedge against some of these moves by the studios? >> as you probably know, i don't think that a lot of that top tier talent is going to be leveraged. they will say what they think.
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i understand where a newspaper goes online. i get that big film makers make things for a giant screen and have a creative vision and i think about top gun this year and tom cruise, tom waited 40 years since the last one to do this. i think that talent, independently, they don't want to make tv shows if you think they'll blend in well, miranda, he went into the heights, he could have gotten more money by making that for streaming and the same thing with hamilton. he chose the theatrical experience because that's the way he wanted to see it. i don't think it will go down well for them. i don't think this is a storm that will blow over in a few
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days i think it will have more influence than what exhibiters think. >> i got to you about something else 18 months ago you introduced imax private theaters. it's not for everybody it's half a million dollars. that's the entry cost there. how have those kinds of sales been going and b, are you interested in continuing to offer, perhaps a lower tier, more accessible version of that imax experience at home? >> we pivoted away from offering that product because it was too expensive and alittle wrong fo the market at the time we pivoted to imax enhance
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we're doing it now with sony if you're at home and you want to watch streaming on your large tv set, we make that image look a lot better in that way that seems to us, a much more sensible way to get into the home than $500,000 >> speaking of which, rich, i'm curious where your insight into the trends you're seeing what the trends in terms of types of movies you are finding people want to see and how do you expect the theatrical movie going experience to be different on the other side of this.
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>> the movies that have done really well are a lot of the epic ones. in japan, it was a movie called demon slayer and it was the biggest imax gross every pandemic, no pandemic. there are restrictions on capacity in china. there's been a number of big films that have done extremely well the smaller films are still doing fine it's really the blockbusters which people want to go out to and that's kind of what imax does i do think there's going to be more blockbusters post-pandemic and probably less mid-level movies if you look at a lot of the movies that disney is moving to streaming service now, they tend to be lower budget, smaller movies movies like black widow and spider man people really want to see those in theaters. i think you'll see a change in
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balance to more blockbuster and less of the smaller movies especially with some of the windowing changes that are likely to continue post-pandemic. i do think j.j. abrams with a quote he said the roaring 20s for roaring and part of the reason was the spanish flu epidemic ended i want to get out of the house and i think a lot of people do >> let's hope that we have the quick deployments of that vaccine so we can get into a roaring '20s faphase. we appreciate you joining us and we hope you'll come back and fill us in as all of these changes are implemented next year rich, thanks so much great conversation let's go to break here take a look at the week today. laggards qualcomm is getting dinged bit
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on this potential apple modem. we're back in a minute
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good to see you again. you had an announcements not long ago about trapi intraining employees. this is big. >> good morning. we're so excited about this. our announcement is we're going to train 29 million people by 2025 in all areas of cloud computing free of charge it's super exciting and building on the program we launched at amazon where we announced last year to train 100,000 of our own employees by 2025. we believe this is a real opportunity globally to up the digital skills and really make sure that no individual is left behind that wants to get cloud computing training >> much of this is going to happen around the world. what's going to determine how much of this resource gets spent in the u.s. versus elsewhere >> well, we're opening this up to 200 countries and
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territories. we originally started a lot of these programs in the u.s. but they shave scaled. a good example is the restart program. it's specifically focused on the unemployed and the under represented. that program we have launched in 12 countries already 8 this year. 25 cities and we plan to double that next year that's a program that i particularly really like because we're focusing on those individuals who do not have job and may not have any cloud computing skills if i could tell you really quickly an example that is in the u.s. in boston, an individual who had a goal of opening jim. he's a fitness trainer during covid he had to close the gym. he had to take a pause on that dream and he went through our restart program. it's a 12-week, kind of intensive training course for
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free from that he got a job as a technical worker at a company called idbs software solutions we have more of those stories. that's what we want to hear. we want the individuals to quickly be trained on skills to go out and get employment. >> if you're a policy maker, if you're someone who is looking to amplify the effectiveness in the u.s. or anywhere around the world. what have you seen as the best methods for doing that to make sure this free training reaches the most people possible and gets them as employeeable as possible >> well, we actually been doing it through universities and high schools directly we do it through social media. we also have programs on twitch. we have something called the aws power hour that we launched on twit for machine learning. you can imagine the audience that we get there. it became so popular we ended up adding a new course called aws cloud practictioner. that one is a great course it gives you all the cloud
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fundamentals that you can get going with it's important not to have it in just one location but to have it in many because you want to touch all different groups we do also partner with organizations like europe and in power so they can offer thes same type of skills and get the word out >> i wonder how many of these who are trained might end up working for amazon one day i only ask that because it's been well documented how many people you've hired this year. i think the time said you are av averaging 2800 since june every single day i'm curious to know how an hr department does that dpl it >> it's not easy we do a lot of interviewing because we have high bar we have our own internal programs that we have always been running education is such an important part of what we do in fact, we started something
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called our aws machine learning university to teach our own technical skills and that's one of the programs we're launching to get more machine learning and artificial intelligence skills i'm hoping we can hire a lot of them we need all types of workers have all economic areas. we want to highly diverse work force and the other thing that we found is our workers also could work for our partner, fur our customers and it's important to cast a really wide net here and not be narrow in what you're doing when trying to create job skills like this >> opportunitiyopportunity it's important thank you. in thank you the busy week for ipos is not over take a look at certara drug development services firm you can see the gain right
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just wanted to say thanks. thanks for believing. check out shares of oracle, fractionally higher. rderall services revenue and
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company involved in over two dozen covid drug developments and vaccine projects around the world. joining us in an exclusive interview, william feehery thank you for being here >> glad to be here very excited >> you're working with the gates found accelerator. it's hard to imagine a better dovetailing of market timing and industry dynamics. >> i think the fact that we've been around for 20 years, working with over 1,600 customers worldwide. we've built a nice profitable business that delivers biosimulation technology, changing the way drug development is done in the world is what excites us we're so proud to be at this point where we've met this public company milestone >> looking at the company
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profile, the term biosimulation comes up a lot is there a way to break that down and decompose it to where the lay person could understand? >> yeah. you know, what we do with buy yof sim -- biosimulation is we have a computer model and how it interacts with the target and what happens when it encounters drugs when it's put on the market we can give information, helps inform the safety and effectiveness of a drug and, you know, we find this has been useused you know, more and more through the pharmaceutical industry through our history. over 90% of new drugs approved by the fda since 2014 have been
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to certara's customers >> i wonder what the use case is in situations like we find ourselves in now we're looking at the pfizer vaccine that some people are having allergic reactions to i think of you guys as like an auto desk of biology are you able to account for the variations in human biology and figure out why there are different reactions in cases like this? >> that's a great point. so one of the key features of our sort wear ftware is to be a simulate what's likely to happen in different populations of people i can't comment on any individual project but some of what we're seeing would be absolutely excellent use cases for our software and technology. >> so what would you say are the accelerants to the effectiveness of your technology over time is it technologies like super
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computing, like cloud computing that allow for more calculations to be done for less expense? >> you know, the key to improving our technology is we've benefited a lot from the just massive improvements and the understanding in the underlying biology and we're always informing and validating our technology by more and more clinical data that kams out comf the pharmaceutical industry. that becomes important as regulators think about our technology regulators around the world, including the fda, have been using it for a long time in questions that they ask about data submitted to them >> right finally, william, we spent the whole year talking about respiratory diseases, but you're in oncology, you're in rare disease. when we think about the next five years and advances we can't imagine yet, is there a vertical
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that you're focused on more than another one is. >> you know, we have number of cutting edge efforts going on but one of the most exciting ones is the work going on right now in the developing cell and gene therapy market. cell and gene therapy often can only give one dose to a patient in their lifetime so it's really, really important to get that dose correct. and this technology can help inform that and it might inform almost on a patient-by-patient basis. most drugs have been under approval yet i think we're going to see that as an exciting growing area in technology for patients who will benefit from that. >> a few moments ago, stock was up 40%, now up 62% congratulations again. hope to talk to you again. >> thank you very much, really thank you very much. >> quick check on disney, john, before we close out the show for the week
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you know, earlier in the week we had targets of 175, then wells went to 182. today goldman goes to 200. all-time high going back to the ipo in 1956. >> a lot of people would have thought the parks had to open to see this but not so. >> and of course a big topic for the jaujd the crew on the half, which we'll get to right now have a good weekend. see you monday >> indeed we will, carl. welcome to the halftime report front and center this hour, the great debate over your money, what this week's red hot ipos say about the state of stocks. why it's not necessarily a sign of too much euphoria joining me for the hour, jim levle leventhal, jason snipe is principal of odyssey capital vi advisers and michael farr. take a look at where we are trading this friday, right across the b

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