system. that's all for this edition of "dateline". i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [music playing]

potentially at the expense of problems down the line >> i'm searcertainly concerned u some of the public relations related to this, especially with so many anti-vax people around, it has not been clearly articulated anything enough as to why they made such a big shift. that is he had, what you i do spend quite a bit of time on health because of my background related to antibiotic issues, i know quite a lot of the people involved and i've got more reassured in the past few days. and i think specifically on the

astrazeneca one, there are some of the greater experts that actually believe, and i have to say i don't fully understand the scientific reasoning, but they actually believe that it might boost immunity so i think the concerns are more valid with the pfizer one, but as it relates to the uk and crucially when it comes to much of the emerging world, astrazeneca one is much more important because there is so much more being produced and of course it can be distributed so much more easily. so i think the iuk might be able to get away with it. >> very interesting perspective you bring. and hopefully that is the case that the immunity is actually boosted with just that one shot. already, wil e'll come back to in a few momew moments but first a quick look at u.s.

futures reacting to the news that we have raphael warnock who has beaten kelly loeffler in the georgia senate runoff. we're still waiting the results of the other election race >> man: what's my safelite story? i spend a lot of time in my truck. it's my livelihood. ♪ rock music >> man: so i'm not taking any chances when something happens to it. so when my windshield cracked... my friend recommended safelite autoglass. they came right to me, with expert service where i needed it. ♪ rock music >> man: that's service i can trust... no matter what i'm hauling. right, girl? >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

welcome back to "street signs. it is a huge day in u.s. politics we're closely watching the georgia runoff senate elections. just earlier this morning, nbc news projecting that democrat raphael warnock has defeated republican kelly loeffler. this is one of two critical races in georgia that will determine control of the senate. and should both democratic candidates win, it will all be in the hands of the democrats. at this point the second critical race in georgia, that between democrat john n ossoff d david perdue, still on a knife

edge but nbc news proceed jenktsing that raphael warnock has defeated definitely loeffler and he will be the first black senate from georgia and only the 11th black senator in american history, he has never run for public office before so a monumental day in georgia and we'll continue to watch the election results as they roll in let's take a look at u.s. treasuries and the reaction. we have treasury yield moving higher across board. the five year trading around 0.42%, the ten year, that is trading around 1.01% let's get out to joumanna. >> let's look at the european markets. we looked at u.s. futures and they are pointing to slightly softer open in a couple hours time but the mood is europe is more positive as you see on the heat

map. brushing off some of the concerns of the last couple days vis-a-vis the extended restrictions we notice know germany has extended the lockdown until the end of january, uk under national lockdown at least until mid to end of february and those restrictions also continuing further out in the continent as well. but you can see today the stost is up about a quarter of a percentage point but let's get into the individual bourses those we have the ftse 100 has been the outperformer the last couple sessions this of course no need to remind viewers, but the ftse 100 has done extremely well since the opening for trade after the brexit deal was signed and since the uk has left the eu obviously many people here talking about the deep valuation discount that the uk has versus the rest of the world in terms

of where its shares are trading. cac 40 up about four tenths. and remember the final pmi numbers this morning slightly below flash, but still better than what they were for november the question of course, how those pmi numbers will look for the month of january especially since the restrictions and the social distancing measures actually increased toward the end of december and beginning of january. so keep an eye on the data outlook. and here is a picture of the sectors. pretty much split. real estate down about three quarters of a percentage point, health care also down a similar amount tech also coming under some selling pressure this morning down half a percentage point probably taking their cue from the u.s. futures

seen opening up weaker there in anticipation potentially of further regulation in that space if the blue wave does transpire. up at the tops, banks, a huge day for european banks today, up about three percentage points here in line with the selloff thatter we' that we're seeing in yieldses. and finally, i'll and gas also up 2%, we have oil breaking through $50. but we'll have more commentary on what is going on there. >> thanks so much. and on the topic of energy, oil prices got a bounce after saudi arabia committed to voluntary production cuts of 1 million barrels a day in february and march. the surprise move, and it followed crude stockpiles in the u.s. they 345 the move to help convince other countries to hold their output steady. russia had previously argued

that demand has recovered enough to raise production levels >> and the world bank has warned that delays in the vaccine rollouts and further spike in cases could drive down its global growth outlook by nearly half tuesday the multilateral lender forecast world gdp growth of 4% this year assuming significant progress in vaccine roll joit ti outtime, but growth could be as low as 1.6% or in an extreme case, negative let's get back out to lord jim o'neill where here it will depend on not only the recovery from the pandemic, about you also on hbu also the effects of brexit so we do finally have a deal at least as it pertains to goods. can i ask you this, do you think that this is the end of the road when it comes to uk's relationship with the eu or is this just going to be a topic that will continue to dominate

political narrative for years to come >> can you imagine if we have another 4 1/2 years or more of what we've gone through. please not listen, i think by definition of our geographgeography, it can'te end of the road. when you start looking into parts of the service sector, we clearly need to have some kind of framework for future trading relationships. there is always obviously huge amounts of understandable focus on finance and something that will have to be worked out there. but it goes all the wait you through the musical services business i've the got a couple pals that are involved in the music live entertainment business and they are not covered by any kind of framework.

a lot of things behind the scenes will get ongoing attention to make sure especially for the unityo unite kingdom because services are more important, that we have a framework for the future >> oond not juand also financia as well. the uk whethill end up contractg as much as 11% con twratractionr the year given what we know about the vaccine rollout, on a more negative note, the uk also has to grapple with its new trading relationship with the eu do you think that those things taken together means that it will take a lot longer for uk to get back to trend growth than other countries that also don't have to deal with configuring out new trading relationships with their big trading partners? >> again as i said, i'm not

sure i want to emphasize that but i find myself having quite strong reoccurring hunches that the uk might positively surprise for two or three represented reasons. first of all, because the importance of the vaccine program is probably greater for those countries that have suffered the most. secondly represented to that, because the uk's economy is one that is so sensitive to the shutdown, successful vaccine program particularly matters for the uk and thirdly notwithstanding the reality of the trade deal only covers manufactured goods, it is a huge relief to that sector so people were getting ready for the worst in much of the fourth quarter hasn't come through. and if you put all that together and crucially look at the

ongoing surveys particularly as it relates to the consumer, i think it might be better than what one may have thought. and i wouldn't be surprised if the decline is not as bad as the pessimistic thinks and that 2021 -- i'm not suggesting that this will be permanent by the way because there is all sorts of understand lying problems, but i think that 2021 could be better than many people think. and i would add that around the world too. what a lot of the bears are i think underestimating is how much the personal savings rate rose in many countries particularly those that didnon't normally save. and the scope, significant acceleration in kirm spe acceleration consumer spending is significant in my view. >> and i know that is a huge question at the moment, whether all this increased savings will

actually translate into somewhat of a consumption boom on the other side of this i want to get your view on the uk in the context of the broader world and sort of world order in the medium and long term ere the government in the uk talks a lot about in concept of a global britain. do you think that that is realistic given the size of the uk now as it stands on its own, is it possible that the uk can actually, you know, make that vision real or is it more realistic that they would end up being something like a bigger denmark? >> that might be more the reality, but the current leadership loves to think of its history and its grandiose influence on the world so i would imagine in the next month or so, we'll get a lot more framework for two big things post-brexit, one is the

so-called leveling domestically particularly focusing on geographic redistribution of growth and also what exactly global britain means. and with the uk hosting the g7, this is something that i know at the center of number 10 and cabinets office, it is something that they are trying to build up for significantly. quite what it means in substance is of course an entirely different matter but i think that you get a lot of noise about global britain coming repeatedly in the weeks ahead. >> and just lastly, a comment from you on china, because last time when we spoke in november, you suggested that for china, they would actually be more concerned about biden in the white house. now we see china and the eu getting cozier with their

investments pact what does the future look like in terms of relations between china and the west >> i think that there are extremely interesting developments with the pacts to be signed. and it is quite clever in a way by the chinese to have done that because it immediately brings the reality of china's economic size and its ongoing rise in the world economy as a bit of a spoiler for all those who simplistically look at diplomacy in terms of how western democracies would like to be on a piece of paper and this is going to be an ongoing issue. i certainly think that clean sweep of the house, the democrats are likely to spend a lot of time trying to build stronger alliance about many american interests including the one on china and it will be an ongoing challenge for the europeans and the issue about the whole relationship with china is not going to go away. but as we see by the week, china

amazingly seems to have handled this pandemic so well. and its economy is recovering pretty strongly. the end of the day, and this is something that ultimately matters for many countries individual workers, you can't run the risk too aggressively of wanting to be overly tough on china to avoid it being too damaging for your trade relationship and this tension will persist. but i continue to think that the chinese will want to be more thoughtful and it might turn out in a strange way that this is helpful for china's adapting ways because they will want to position themselves in a way to not face bigger action from a coordinated global group which the americans under biden might push >> really fascinating thoughts always a pleasure to have you on the program. thank you for taking the time to join us this morning

lord jim o'neill, chairman and coming up, italy's government teeters on the edge as leaders remain slight over the country's covired covery we'll discuss the latest next.

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welcome back to "street sign signs" these are your headlines democrat raphael warnock is projected to win his senate runoff in georgia according to nbc news the second race is still too close to call. european equities looking for direction as they mull the possibility of the democrats taking both houses while european and u.s. deals rise congress is due to certify the presidential votes later today with some republican lawmakers reportedly planning to use the occasion to challenge president-elect biden's victory. china's foreign ministry says that it will safe guard the

rights of software ads bans by president trump in the latest escalation of trade tensions and we are just getting the final pmi composite numbers. for the uk, it has come in at 50.4 versus the initial read of 50.7 so slightly weaker than what we had just a couple weeks ago for the flash reading. but of course higher than where we were in november at 49. as for services, they have come in at 49.4, that is again slightly lower in an the flash read of 49.9 but higher than the november read of 47.6. again, just want to remind viewers that these are taken from roughly the first couple weeks of trading of december and since then as we know, there has been a shear increase in the

number of lockdowns and economic restrictions on the continent and in the uk. so at these december pmis , they don't fully capture the picture. but our big story, nbc news is proceed jenk projecting that warnock has defeated loeffler. and the other race between david perdue and jon ossoff remains too close to call. a victory would return control of the senate to the democrats with kamala harris acting as the tie-breaking vote in her role as the president of the senate. and this is the reaction so far in u.s. futures. you can see pretty much all the majors are trading in negative territory. the dow only just so, but 5 points will he points lower s&p about 18 points lower. but the big one that people are focused on is the nasdaq

the nasdaq is seen opening about 240 points lower and here they are accounting for the possibility of further regulatory undertakings in that space given that we've had a blue sweep and given that it has been a priority item for the democrats as far as their address jen today is concerned so tech stocks are coming under a little bit of selling pressure here and here you can see some of the u.s. big tech names in germany and there has been a negative reaction so far, apple down about 2%, microsoft down 1.3%, alphabet as well so these are the big u.s. stocks, but listed in germany coming under some selling pressure this morning. as if broader european markets, the reaction so far has been pretty positive. you can see the mood across all the major bourses is possible. ftse 100 leading the charge today, uk up 0.9%. seeing a rebound in some of the

basic resources stocks and some oil majors are rebounding quite nicely in response to the reaction in the price of oil this after saudi arabia decided to cut its production. so that has been positive for the oil sector and the italian coalition party leader matteo renzi could bring down the government this week as the prime minister prepares his economic be recovery plan. renzi's party has demanded a shift in his appointment and more transparency. let's get out to frederico, thanks for joining us on the show you can talk us true what stre. he's only got two ministers in the development and yet here he is elections are not

really on the cards for now still. elections and i think renzi knows that an but i think a lot of they impressive i have to say, not unlike major other europe so essentiallyd onwards is not convincing and this is crucial fo >> it seemed ovefavorably. what has happened since the summer and whane who has been f italian politics will know that governments don't tend to last more than one to between years on average conte ofirst government was no exception. and in a way as i said, the government was not particularly cohesive or stable to begin with, it came together mainly to avoid elections back in 2019 the pandemic was something of a blessing in disguise, there was a big rally around the flag as

with we saw elsewhere in the world as the health care emergency took center stage. but that has now changed and we're seeing pressure on the prime minister build particularly since december for some of the issues that i mentioned. now, with snap elections not really in the cards given how reluctant goefverning parties a to face voters even if elections could be held efficiently, they expect the eurosceptic will be propelled into power and are not keen to face voters for as long as possible. so what is really on the cards, either a major gechlts reshuffle seem he has it is the way things are heading at the moment, that we'd see the prime minister relinquish some of his powers to the benefit of coalition partners and the other thing be talked about is broadening the government majority to include some of the opposition potentially bringing in a new prime minister, potentially a

technocrat mario draghi of course is a name that comes up. but in any case, it is unlike delay we'll see a major change in the political direction of the government or the policy outlook, which is i think one big reason why markets so far to a large extent paper through all this political uncertainty >> on that latter scenario that you just outlined, the path of potentially forming a grand coalition or unity government led by a technocrat, what did you thinks chances are that that actually happens and what would be the policy changes? seems like you don't expect much to change, but what could look different under that scenario? >> i'm personally still quite skeptical of that. that is probably the main fall back option if a compromise can't be reached within the confines of the existing governing coalition. that is still our base case i

would say, but if that doesn't work out, that is proebably the second best option and there is a lot of pressure from business community to bring in a more competent leadership so there could be more credible recovery plan would be one main advantage that we could hope for. but past experience as you know with tech know the krnocratic gi not very encouraging we would still have to work with a very diverse, even more diverse in fact coalition, than we have now. not easy and in the past we've seen that technocratic prime ministers tend to lose their political kapts rather quickly six months to a year after coming to office so still not a great outlook even in that case. >> definitely a bumpy road always it seemeds as far as the political climate is concerned

frederico, we'll leave it there. thank you so much for joining us the chinese government says that it will do what it takes to safe guard the rights of some of its biggest software companies this after u.s. president trump signed an executive order banning transactions with eight chinese software apps including alipay we'll head to a quick break. but a quick look at u.s. markets and how they are looking to open up the tech index is seen opening up in quite negative territory, this after nbc news projected that the democrat raphael warnock has won one of the run areoffs in georgia

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welcome back to street signs. nbc news is projecting raphael warnock has run his senate election in georgia moving the democrats one step closer to taking control of the senate

but the other state is too close to call with 98% of the votes logged taking a look at u.s. futures, we're seeing some underperformance in the tech heavyspects of a blue wave sweeping washington. what that might mean for tech regulation moving forward putting a dampener on sentiment. so a muted start according to these futures for the dow jones. let's bring in tony fratto at hamilton place strategies to talk through these elections in more detail. tony, always a pleasure to have you on street signs. if the democrats do take control of the senate, how do you see this changing the ambitions of joe biden and his administration >> well, quite a bit it will be 50/50 requiring kamala harris to be breaking ties there

i think the biggest change we'll see immediately is really two areas, one is an additional stimulus plan, i think that we'll see something fairly quickly early in the administration to talk up what they just passed and including things like funding for state and local governments. the other which was going to be i think a significant hurdle for the biden administration and will impact a lot of businesses is just personnel. we've seen the top jobs, cabinet level jobs, most of them being named. there are literally hundreds and hundreds of senate confirmed positions. and including important regulators and economic and financial regulators as well so we'll see that as well. and then just legislation, being able to bring things to the floor. i think we'll see it in things like tax policy, health care, energy, infrastructure, we'll see a lot of legislation getting to the floor it will still be hard to get big things passed. i mean, we think of these two

parties, the democrats will be united, but there are differences ideological differences across the democratic party and we'll see how that plays out with the ambitions of the house can which will be much more progressive but still much more centrist senate. >> really good point there these runoffs are interesting for so many reasons. one of them being that it is the first test at how republican support will hold up without president trump anywhere on the ballot do you think that even just this first result coming through with the first senate race looking called according to nbc news that trump's influence does actually have its limits. >> we saw this in 2018 position. trump wasn't on the ballot in the midterms and they did not go

well for republicans and there wasn't the same level of, you know, turnout and enthusiasm from republicans so it is a benefit for republicans to have somebody at the top of the ticket when he's running, which back in november republicans did much better than expected than people expected. we got the ab test this time with trump not on the ballot he may have made things worse. i think this there is a strong case that he made things worse by focusing on his unfounded claims of fraud in the state we'll see some of that playing out today too. but it is a really great point you make if we're thinking about the future of not just the republican party, but the health of the two party system in washington, you know, you kind of want to see this party be able to grow and develop on its own and get back to some of the traditional debates that we've had, not dominated by trump. and if there is a fear by certain members of -- sitting

members of congress that trump will be out there influencing how they vote, that will still make things very dinkfficult in washington but if they lose the idea that he can campaign and find primary opponents for them, i think that we may be able to see a little bit more compromise on some of the legislative opportunities ahead in the next couple years >> so let's bring it back to that legislative compromise. let's say we end up in a situation where there is a blue sweep and the democrats do manage to clinch the senate. they still will have array starr thin majority and it will be up to the vice president length kamala harris to draw the deciding vote. what does it mean for overall policy making decisions and position do you think that there is a possibility that they may well look to remove the filibuster to help facilitate some of the policy agendas and priorities that they want to put forward? >> i think that that will be the

600 pound gorilla in the room. there is a lot of focus on kamala harris being there to break tie, but i think we really should be looking to certain people like -- on the democratic side, people like joe manchin who is a conservative democrat from the state of west virginia. he sort of stands along in the democratic party and will make, you know -- if the biden administration is interested in moving legislation on climate change for example, or tax po poli poli policy, he will really be the deciding vote because that will determine whether there is a tie for kamala harris to break on the republican side, you may see people who are interested in doing things and have shown a willingness to cross party lines like mitt romney, susan collins, lisa murkowski, there are a handful of members who are more in the center, they will dominate policy making in all of

these areas. and so while we are going to see very ambitious goals from the democrats but especially the progressive wing, those handful of senators will be super powerful, that is really where the decision making will be. you will need those centrist members of the senate in particular to stand together in order to get any of this legislation done and we have to run the house has a razor thin majority also speaker pelosi will have a difficult caucus because her majority right now is held together also by a handful of more centrist democrats from places like pennsylvania and virginia so i think that we'll hear a lot of ambition from the progressive wing, but really where the policy making is going to take place is still going to be in this narrow lane in the middle the advantage that the democrats will get if they win the second seat is just the ability to

bring this legislation to the floor in the u.s. senate and that is pretty important as we saw, you know, mitch mcconnell as majority leader decided not to bring covid relief legislation to the floor for a couple months, at least the legislation that speaker pelosi wanted. >> so there will be a lot of compromises to be sought even under a blue sweep scenario. all right, tony, we'll have to leave it there tony fratto from hamilton place straenl strategies today's session is expected to see dozens of republicans challenge the presidential results continuing claims of fraud. now, tracie potts is joining us live from washington, d.c. and can you just explain to us how a vote that is typically i ceremonial has become so

controversial? >> reporter: a couple reasons. first of all, because president trump continues to allege fraud without proof. and now some of his allies, at least 13 republican senators, 100 members of the house, are going along with that and objecting to the results that have been certified by all 50 states so the process is the states certify their own results and send them to congress and as understand, it is normally just a rubber stamp to say yes, what these states say happened actually happened. but not this time. republicans will object, they will say there was fraud, there were problems with the certifications, and therefore they should be sent back to the states the president has tweeted about that saying that the vice president mike pence who presides over the process will come through for him and that he will win the election as a result but the way the law is written

and the way that the constitution is written, there really isn't a process for mike pence to change these election results. he simply presides over the process and announces what the result is. all of that means we're not expecting to see anything different happen in the end, the result is expected to be that joe biden and kamala harris will be certified as the winners of this election. but it could take a lot longer than it normally does with debate and speeches about why republicans think the process did not work >> something certainly to watch out for this afternoon in addition to the results from the georgia senate runoff. thank you very much for bringing us that. just to recap of the top news from today, nbc news has projected that raphael warnock will win brings the dems one step closer because there is

still another seat that we're waiting to hear the results from with jon ossoff and david perdue results still not out yet. but if that does materialize, we could be in for a through sweep whe blue sweep where the democrats will control the white house, senate and house and let me leave you with this stat over the past 40 years, that has only occurred for just four years in total that blue sweep scenario a quick look at u.s. futures "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

it is 5:00 a.m. in atlanta and here is your top five at 5:00 breaking news overnight, democrat raphael warnock projected to flip one senate seat in the big senate runoff in georgia. the other race still too close to call. futures flat to even slightly higher as the market a waits that outcome as the landscape of congressional control turns more blue what it all means for your money ahead. troubling new developments in hong kong as dozens are arrested under the new national security law there