Skip to main content

tv   Street Signs  CNBC  January 25, 2021 4:00am-5:00am EST

4:00 am
i think he was an adrenaline junkie. i think he thrived on winning. he took it way too far. i think he definitely flew too close to the sun. ♪♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum with joumanna bercetche these are your headlines european equities open higher but travel stocks sink into the red as the biden administration reportedly prepares to reinstate a travel ban against the uk, eu and other high-risk countries. the biden administration presses republican lawmakers to agree to a $1.9 trillion covid
4:01 am
relief plan, stressing the need for urgent stimulus as the u.s. cases top 25 million. >> the case is things are going to get worse before they get better we didn't get into this mess overnight. it's going to take time for us to turn things around. we also have to act now, now with urgency and unity as the united states of america >> shares in phillips rise after the dutch health tech giant beats fourth quarter profit forecast as the need for hospital equipment grows during the pandemic. and bargain hunting. boho acquires debenhams as they look to buy the top brand from arcadia sending shares in both retailers higher
4:02 am
happy monday, everybody. a very warm welcome to "street signs. i want to kick off the show with fresh data coming out of germany that's just crossing the wires now. this is the german ifo business climate index. we have the climate index in january coming in at 90.1. that is below consensus of 91.8. business morale has fallen in january to a slightly lower level than the market had been expecting. the current conditions index also came down to 89.2 in january, forecast of 90.6. so, business morale coming down in the month of january. and after the pmi data we got last week, this shouldn't come as a major surprise. we did see the german manufacturing sector showing some resilience, but services taking a hit we've got the euro trading down slightly versus the dollar, 1.2162 let's get out to anetta who joins us with more on this
4:03 am
german data. put this latest data point into context for us with the other data that we've had for the month of january it seems to coincide with the pmi numbers we got at the end of last week. >> exactly i can repeat what you've been saying, the pmi give data a taste for what might be also now the reason for the lower than expected ifo number. substantially it will be down on the service sector with more lockdowns in germany and nobody really believes that we are going to see a lifting of the lockdown situation as soon as mid-february, because the numbers are not going down as fast as expected and the new mutation coming from great britain, but also south africa, has started to spread also in germany, meaning they are most likely also seeing an extension of the lockdown
4:04 am
measures well into march, if not longer so, essentially i think the service sector will be the main culprit here for the lower than expected ifo numbers what the ifo institute is saying now as well, that they are expecting a stagnation in the first quarter of this year because of the wider lockdown measures when it comes to the industries, i guess here we are still seeing some support coming from the manufacturing space because clearly even though the pmi numbers on average were also not great, but the manufacturing space is still holding up on the back of strong demand coming from china, but mind you, also from the united states we've been hearing from the pmi institute. so, now the chief economist is saying that it the germany's economy is starting the new year with little confidence, and
4:05 am
that's why we are -- they are thinking we're going to see a stagnation of gdp also in the first quarter. everything kind of depends on how the virus situation is contained and whether we're seeing more measures also for the wider industry and whether this lockdown will be lifted in the foreseeable future with that, back to you you raise an interesting point about the strength of manufacturing, and certainly it's shown up a lot in the german data over the last couple of months, specifically when highlighted versus services. but the latest flash pmi print has shown that the relative surprise this time around came from the services sector manufacturing has actually started to drop. namely, one issue that as some of the businesses are pointing to are the longer lead times they're beginning to see some supply chain bottlenecks i know this is a story you've been watching closely insofar as it pertains to the auto
4:06 am
industry there have been issues with the semiconductor supply and this is something we've been talking about all morning as well. how likely is it going forward that the manufacturing sector in germany can continue to hold up. >> it all depends on how the situation in other countries are because clearly the manufacturing industry is very much depending on exports. so, china is still going strong, then i guess our manufacturing space can also hold up, depending on whether we'll see more bottlenecks coming from the supply side. currently what they're hearing is worrisome and has made it up as high to the economy ministry, who is now urging to prioritize chipmaker supply to that specific industry. just bringing you back to the eiffel institute, they say
4:07 am
industry is very well positioned, to make export expectations and those have actually risen i guess this trend remains intact with that, back to you >> thank you so much for weighing in on the numbers for more detail, we're now joined by clemens president of the ifo institute. great to have you on the program. it looks as though business morale has dipped in january i suppose it comes as no surprise, given the way the virus has evolved. how would you describe the overall german sentiment is the german manufacturing sector as resilient, as optimistic as the pmis last week suggested? >> well, let's say the manufacturing sector is the most resilient part of the economy. currently the decline we are seeing mostly comes from services from retailers and from wholesalers. but in terms of expectations, we
4:08 am
also see that manufacturing companies are becoming more skeptical and that's related to, on the one hand, issues with value chains there's some bottlenecks in deliveries, but also concern that at some point, if people don't consume anymore and cannot buy goods, this will also have an impact on the factories >> one of the major changes that's taken place between the last survey and this one is the brexit deal. i'm curious if you are seeing any change in business sentiment as a result of that resolution coming at the end of 2020? >> well, not really. if we look at the industries most exposed to the uk, the car industry, for instance, the reading is relatively okay but there are no big changes so the recovery in the automotive industry is continuing, but i don't think
4:09 am
there is a direct impact of the brexit deal. there has been uncertainty around -- certainly what we've avoided is the negative impact of no deal, but as we know, the brexit deal also leaves many questions open i don't think there an immediate impact here. >> in terms of those supply issues you mentioned facing the manufacturing sector, how are businesses thinking about those? is that expected to be a part of business that's going to deteriorate in the months ahead or is there confidence they will be able to resolve some of these issues in the value chain? >> i think up to now these arert
4:10 am
but there is sort of a looming issue here, which is problematic. i wouldn't say it's a major concern at the moment. >> can we talk a little more about the sectors and specific takeaways from some of the sectors, because i'm seeing some flashes come through about the retail sector in germany and one of your colleagues from the economists -- an economists at ifo institute is saying the retail sector has collapsed on back of these very restrictive lockdowns. can you give us more color on how the strength is panning out in, say, the manufacturing industries versus some of the industries that are likely to be more affected by the lockdowns, such as retail >> yes retail has been strongly affected by the lockdown, replacing retail through online works to some extent, but for
4:11 am
many businesses it doesn't work. what we currently see is a weakness also in wholesale suggesting that really something is interrupted there and on top of that, it may be the case that after increase, people many -- maybe also the current uncertainty about the duration of the lockdown, maybe that also makes people wait before they make larger expenses so, taken together, this explains that tho a halt >> and looking ahead, we know germany just extended the national lockdown until february 14th if it gets extended once again,
4:12 am
could we be in for a negative quarter of growth yet again for germany? >> what we currently expect is stagnation, more or less but if the lockdown continue until march, that's what people expect at the moment we certainly can't exclude a negative number, but i would still think it will be close to zero we have this relative strength in the manufacturing sector, and while companies have expressed more pessimism, there are product plans, for instance, a lot better, so all that suggests there is a certain resilience overall. i would say we can still hope for at least a zero and not a negative second quarter. >> sir, thank you very much for joining us this morning, president of the ifo institute weighing in on those latest numbers out of germany now, let's take a lo at markets. as you can see behind me, it's a
4:13 am
mixed picture to start off the week we havher overall but significant sector divergence taking place this morning. we did have a decent week last week with european equity markets rising to new pandemic highs. we did see some selling toward the end of the week. the narrative seems to be changing somewhat around the virus as governments express more concern around these new variants investors digesting what this may mean for the pace of easing restrictions even as these vaccination programs get under way in much of the developed world. a little caution on that front we're seeing that materialize in a pullback in some key reopening stocks let's take a look at markets and what the politic looks like. we have green on the bothered for the swiss market the more defensive stocks performing well this morning the ftse mib in italy up 0.50 and the dax up 10 basis points on the downside, the french
4:14 am
market trading 10 basis points below. and the uk, the ftse 100 trading just below the flat line let's push onto the sectors and see what the split looks like. just an hour into the trading session. technology up 1.2%, strong performance there. at the end of last week we did see this trend where cyclical overgrowth took a bit of a pause. we saw large-cap tech once again outperforming towards the end of last week and we are seeing tech outperform this morning in europe as well telecom up, basic resources, financial services, health care round out the better performers. on the downside we have travel and leisure, the clear underperformer this morning. down 1.15% a couple of things weighing on that sector this morning let's take a look at the stocks in more detail iag down nearly 7% lufthansa down 7%. air france, klm, ez jet and ryanair down as well
4:15 am
president biden is set to reimpose citizens traveling from the uk biden's move will rescind that decision before it was due to come into effect the other thing that is weighing on travel stocks this morning, over the weekend reports have emerged that the uk government is considering imposing tighter travel restrictions, which may include mandatory hotel quarantine for travelers arriving to the uk clearly, that is driving some profit-taking in these travel stocks, which had caught a bit of a bid in the leadup to the latest session let's turn to geopolitical news now u.s. carrier group has entered the south china sea with military chiefs saying it's in the region to promote freedom of the seas it comes on the same day as taiwan reported an incursion of 12 chinese aircraft into its air space. the move prompted the u.s. state
4:16 am
department to call on beijing to stop pressuring taiwan, urging china to engage in dialogue. former pboc monetary committee member has told cnbc he is optimistic the biden administration can repair damage done to the chinese relationship during the trump years speaking to our colleagues in singapore it, as part of the davos agenda, he said the new president's advisers will be key. >> overall i'm very optimistic about the relationship the single most important reason is the team of president biden is very experienced dealing with china. and china is most comfortable dealing with such a team many top cabinet members are old friends and negotiators of china. this is single 340es important reason
4:17 am
reversely, the problem of president trump with dealing with china he was dealing with new teams and they were using a call, a barking strategy even with china, which backfired. i do think that the relationship will de-escalate more important, the overall temperature will come down allowing both sides to really negotiate and cooperate on many issues >> i have to say, though, that politically the temperature is not coming down, it seems, between u.s. and china is that going to complicate the commercial and economic relationship >> even on the political side we will have to take some time for president trump's legacy to die down what we are experiencing right now, he's left over of trump administration's damage of the
4:18 am
relationship we have to take time it takes time for. the general public on both sides to get used to a new norm of the relationship even on the political relationship, i do believe that situation will calm down before too long >> professor, i think specifically what we're talking about in terms of increasing risks and we were in conversation about it the other morning is over the weekend, china's decision to fly a whole bunch of plays, a lot more than usual and not just reconnaissance planes into taiwan's air identification zone, which prompted the u.s. response and then they sent an entire carrier battle group into the south china sea. that doesn't sound like things are calming down that sounds like -- looks very much like things are getting even tenser. >> well, very good question. i do believe the current
4:19 am
maneuver actually a prelude to a new round of diplomatic negotiation between the two sides, china and the u.s before negotiation, you do have to make some moves to indicate your commitment, to indicate your overall attitude. so, i'm not particularly alarmed by the recent maneuver in the taiwan straits >> such an important topic for markets, the status of u.s./china relations pimco vice chairman told cnbc earlier this morning that he expects the biden administration to take a fresh approach to trade relationships with china >> trump was very transactional. here i think biden will be much more of an integrated trade, diplomatic framework, which i think is going to -- on one level, remember, china at the end of the day is only looking for engagement
4:20 am
china is about engagement. china is about having a seat at the table. china is about being respected and i think they feel during this last period they didn't have a chance to engage, didn't have a seat at the table and didn't have a chance to feel they were integrated into the global order i think between biden and the europeans, i think that will change, particularly relating to your question about trade. speaking of the chinese president xi jinping will deliver the davos agenda's first special address of the week. you can follow his statement live on cnbc from 1300 cet also later today, our very own jeff will be hosting a virtual davos forum with key policymakers and leaders, including the ecb president christine lagarde, french finance minister and germany economy minister peter almyier,
4:21 am
goldman sachs head will be leading the conversation at 1300 cet. a great panel later today. we'll cut to a very quick break. when we come back, we'll talk all things auto as vw seeks to sue for damages.
4:22 am
♪ you can go your own way ♪ it's time you make the rules.
4:23 am
so join the 2 million people who have switched to xfinity mobile. you can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data that's right for you to save even more. and you'll get nationwide 5g at no extra cost. all on the most reliable network. so choose a data option that's right for you. get nationwide 5g included and save up to $300 a year on the network rated #1 in customer satisfaction. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile.
4:24 am
signs," everybody. let's turn to some corporate news driving performance phillips has reported a 7% rise in fourth quarter earnings in the core division, beating expectations thanks in part to high demand for hospital equipment. the dutch health technology company says it plans to deliver low single digit sales growth this year but added the outlook remains uncertain due to the pandemic taiwan's biggest chipmaker, tsmc, says it will prioritize the production of chips for the car industry if it can manage to increase production capacity it comes at the behest of the
4:25 am
taiwanese and german government as peter altmaier urged his counterpart to address the global shortage in semiconductors hitting the auto sector volkswagen says it could seek damages from its parts makers bosch and continental due to the shortage in semiconductors. moving onto uk retail, boohoo has bought the debenham's department store and website for 50 million pounds. it will not include any of the chain's remaining 118 stores, which will be permanently closed, putting 12,000 jobs at risk debenham's fell into administration last year. asoc confirmed it's next clueses ive talks to acquire a number of fashion brands from the administrators of arcadia group. they said any purchase would be funded by its cash reserves. two very interesting uk retail deals in focus this morning.
4:26 am
one confirmed, one next clueses ive talks. and, you know, what is common between both of these companies, boohoo and asos is how well they performed through the pandemic, part of the fact due to the fact their supply chains are more agile than the physical stores so they've been able to adapt and take market share through the pandemic when a lot of physical stores not only weren't open but were a lot more restricted in terms of their supply chains. >> i think it's not just supply chain there. you raise a really good point. the case of debenham's, this is a uk flagship store, a huge brick and mortar star. they are department stores all over the country the business model actually begun to -- became the achilles heel they had these very long-dated rents, long-term leases. when the pandemic hit, and even before the pandemic hit, they started running into some cash
4:27 am
flow management issues and this is why debenham's got into trouble they had to take on more debt to keep servicing their brands for these leases and not managing to stay up with changing fashion trends and the shift to online and digital sales, where obviously, you know, players like asos and boohoo have led the pace one thing i would say, though, is we've talked a lot about how 2020 was the year of the pandemic and that it's shifted -- changed the way we work, changed the way we shop and accelerated many trends in the space. but for retail, it's really, really been a difficult year i was just reading in the uk alone about 180,000 jobs have been lost in 2020. looking ahead to 2021, they're also expecting as many as 200,000 jobs to be lost as well. really difficult time for many of these retailers. >> with these two deals in particular, that could mean the majority of 20,000 jobs at risk. really emphasizes the importance of programs to help potentially
4:28 am
retrain some of these workers who will be put out as a result of these changes coming up on "street signs," new suggestions that the uk variant of coronavirus is more transmissible and could also be more deadly. we'll have more details after the brea do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. our friends sold their policy to help pay for their medical bills and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned that we can sell all of our policy or keep part of it with no future payments, who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement
4:29 am
as we had planned. if you have one hundred thousand dollars or more of life insurance you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit to find out if you policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.
4:30 am
4:31 am
. welcome back to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche with julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines european with equities open higher but travel stocks sink into the red as the biden administration reportedly prepares to reinstate a travel ban against the uk, eu and other high-risk countries pu. german business morale falls by more than expected as the ifo institute warns of the continued impact of lockdowns and restrictions the ifo president strikes a cautious tone. >> the manufacturing companies are becoming more skeptical and that's related to, on the one hand, issues with value chains at some point if people don't
4:32 am
consume anymore and cannot buy goods, this will also have an impact on the factories. shares in philips rise at the dutch health tech giant beats fourth quarter. bargain hunting. boohoo acquires the debenham's brand, sending shares higher. we're about an hour and a half into the first trading session of the week. as you can see here, it's a mixed picture from a regional perspective. also a mixed picture from a sector perspective so, regionally we have the spanish market down about 0.50%, krak down 0.2%
4:33 am
the uk market is just about flat and the italian market trading 0.3% higher. sectorwise we're seeing a significant selloff in travel stocks that, of course, comes on the back of this weekend's reports that the uk is considering imposing tighter restrictions on travelers entering the united kingdom, considering a potential mandatory hotel quarantine that's something to watch for in the travel sector. taking a look at u.s. futures, we're looking at a modestly positive start to trade. we have the dow jones up about 23 points. the nasdaq looking at a very strong start, 135 points higher. very strong start relative to the others that would continue the trend we saw at the end of last week, which was renewed demand for those large-cap tech companies as investors consider the potentially changing narrative as governments become increasingly concerned about new variants as stock markets continue to make new highs, the pandemic situation continues to worsen.
4:34 am
let's talk about that. covid cases in the u.s. topped 25 million on sunday, meaning the country accounts for one in four active cases globally the milestone comes as president biden's new administration begins to roll out a plan to tackle the pandemic, including cushing travel and imposing a mask mandate on federal property and the world economic forum president has welcomed president biden's approach to the rollout of a vaccine, but urged the u.s. leader to do whatever it takes to resurrect the american economy. speaking to cnbc, he said there is greater danger of doing too little than doing too much. >> there are no lights in the end of the tunnel, in general. not the least the vaccine rollout, but it's taking time. we just have to hope the new
4:35 am
variants are not immune when it comes to the vaccine i think also what experts say, we can adjust the vaccines if necessary. then i think stimulus that has been launched, the 12 trillion u.s. dollars are also not having an effect. we're seeing that growth is back in some countries and this year we do expect growth. and in 2022 we hope that also we're back in many countries to a pre-covid level when it comes to growth and jobs but whatever it takes to get the economy back is necessary. and i think it's more dangerous to do too little than too much when it comes to stimulus. know we have to move the stimulus from just looking at consumption to investments investing in the green future, investing also in digital transformation that has to take
4:36 am
place. and one of my biggest worries is that 3.6 billion people on our planet are notconnected to the internet when we know that digitalization is so important, these are one of the challenges that we are really looking at when it comes to meeting the sustainable development goals. and i feel the u.s. administration is also with us on this priorities >> so, joe biden in the white house better for the global economy, better for the world? >> so, the signals that are coming from the white house re-entering w.h.o., paris accord is, of course, well received and we'll see. but we are still in a situation where there is geopolitical confrontations, the fractured world. we'll see how the u.s./china relationship will develop in the year to come i don't think there will be a lack of news for you to report >> former ceo of royal dsm says
4:37 am
the new coronavirus variants discovered in the uk as well as brazil and south africa could be challenging for the efficacy of vaccines >> the concern is that if we have a high level of infections and slovakcy nation program, that there's all kinds of room for mutations. and once again, also in developing countries with all the globalization at the end they will reach us as well so hopefully those mutations will not happen too strong and hopefully our vaccines will work against those also but there are some signs that it is not the case in all situations and that is worrying because we need to get out of this pandemic from a societal perspective, human perspective, economic perspective and health care perspective. >> for the latest news and insights from the davos agenda, check out
4:38 am
while evidence appears to suggest that the new variant of coronavirus that emerged in the uk could be more deadly, this is according to the british prime minister boris johnson now, current vaccines are still expected to work the uk has given a first job to nearly 6 million people but health secretary matt hancock said it was not time to ease lockdown restrictions. >> the lockdown is starting to bring cases down, but we're a long, long way from that -- from being low enough, because the case rate was incredibly high. and you can see the pressure on the nhs. you can see it every day you know, the lhs are doing an amazing job in incredibly difficult circumstances. >> meanwhile, uk ministers are set to meet later this week to discuss stricter quarantine measures for people arriving from abroad. this could include the
4:39 am
introduction of mandatory quarantine in selected hotels. currently people arriving into the uk from abroad are asked to self-isolate for ten days. italian prime minister has threatened legal action against astrazeneca, accusing it of breaching its contract to deliver coronavirus vaccines to the european union the pharmaceutical giant warned the bloc that initial volumes will be significantly lower than anticipated, but the prime minister says delays could put people's lives at risk italy is set to receive less than half the doses initially promised in the first quarter. there have been a number of notable developments over the weekend around coronavirus and the one i want to pick up on is this news out of the uk, the reports they could be considering imposing stronger, stricter restrictions on travelers coming to the uk the reason i think it's important is because it captures the shifting narrative that i think is under way here. the market had been expecting
4:40 am
vaccine rollout to come through ask on the back of vaccines being rolled out to the most vulnerable, a reopening of economies. but what this signals over the weekend is that it may not be as simple as that because of these new variants in the mutations and the concern that exists among the medical community and governments around these new variants potentially escaping the vaccine. so, it actually cast a bit of doubt, i think, on the current market narrative that the vaccinations could lead to a swift ease of restrictions across the developing world. >> it's such an important point that you raise there, because it's not just the uk who are looking to impose these travel curbs. we've been talking about it on the show this morning. one of the reason the travel stocks are trading so poorly is because now the u.s. via the biden administration are saying that they want to curb travel potentially also from countries in europe and in asia as well. so, yes, the vaccine rollout, particularly in the uk appears to be on the right track with
4:41 am
more than 6 million people vaccinated but as you say, the question is how quickly the full population can get inoculated, how quickly we can get to herd immunity and whether or not these vaccines actually work against the strains that are coming up and i think people were particularly alarmed of the comments coming out of the health secretary matt hancock over the weekend suggesting this new variant, this new strain could potentially be more lethal what more do we know on that front? >> those comments are to do with the uk's new variant, the one that has become the dominant strain here in the uk. there are data to suggest that variant is 30% more deadly than the previous strains the big unknown is actually the south africa variant and to a degree the brazil variant. those are the two variants that epidemiologists and virologists are concerned may escape the vaccines and may reduce the efficacy of the vaccines
4:42 am
and that may be why we could be looking at a period of extended restrictions and he extended restrictions when it comes to cross-border travel. coming up on the show, despite pushback from some republican circles, president biden insists there's no time to wait in passing his stimulus proposal we'll get the latest next.
4:43 am
4:44 am
research shows people remember commercials with nostalgia. so to help you remember that liberty mutual customizes your home insurance, here's one that'll really take you back. wow! what'd you get, ryan? it's customized home insurance from liberty mutual! what does it do bud? it customizes our home insurance so we only pay for what we need! and what did you get, mike? i got a bike. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪
4:45 am
welcome back to "street signs. white house officials have started talked with a bipartisan group of senators in a bid to push through president biden's stimulus plan. in a weekend call, lawmakers agreed to prioritize vaccine distribution, but several republicans questioned the size of the proposal. biden's team said the bill must be passed soon, warning the back of the december covid relief package will not last long meanwhile, biden urged americans to wear masks and practice social distancing to contain the spread of the virus. >> in the next few months, masks, not vaccinations, are the
4:46 am
single best defense that we have against covid-19 medical experts say that by wearing masks, by wearing masks from now until april, we will save more than 50,000 lives. 50,000 lives we're asking american people to mask up for the first 100 days i issued an executive order requiring masks on federal property and interstate travel like trains, planes and buses. i hope we can work together to require masks in your cities and social distancing. >> well, the senate will vote on janet yellen's nomination as treasury secretary later today, after a key senate committee unanimously approved her appointment on friday, despite republican concerns over biden's spending plans yellen would be the first woman to hold the role and let's get a quick check at how some of the u.s. asset
4:47 am
classes are trading today, starting with the dollar index we have it trading at around 90 right now. has rebounded a little bit from the lows we got to the dxy index got as low as 89, but worth bearing in mind that the dollar index is, indeed, a lot lower than where it was exactly a year ago in a secular downward trend. the dy index was more than 100 at the peak of the pandemic. he we are seeing a strength in dollar but the main theme continues to be one of weakness. for u.s. treasuries, the move today is sideways we have the ten-year note hovering around 108. not a lot of movement overnight. holding at the 1.10 level seems to be a good anchor for the u.s. treasury around here the five-year note around 43 basis points not a lot of movement there either but again, the theme in u.s. treasuries and u.s. yields has been one of the steepness of the yield curve and people getting into some of these reflationary trades with that, let's bring in our
4:48 am
next guest nannette the cio from credit suisse joins us. thank you for joining us today my colleague and i were talking about some of the new variants that have been popping up around the world, whether it's the uk b117, south african variant of the virus, brazil now, and that's leading more and more countries to close their borders. and yet markets seem to be completely brushing off all these concerns and are going all in on the reflationary trade, even though we could be headed for months and months and months more of lockdowns. not just in europe, but potentially in the u.s. as well. why do you think markets are shrugging off this risk so much right now? >> i think markets had, generally speaking, the anticipation for q1 being a soft one. just because the rollout of the vaccines in a number of countries would just not be as far.
4:49 am
so really the markets are already in our understanding, already taking a position on what is likely to come once this vaccination is much more progressed in the second quarter. so, a forward-looking picture here also mirrored and perhaps reassured by some of the positive economic surprises. for example, in pmi, and this week we'll have first readings of q4 gdp as well. >> turning to, again, the valuations and stock markets right now, some people are saying that not only are we at extreme valuations but we're also in bubble territory and that it's going to be very difficult for thesevaluations to be sustained or even to move higher from where we are right now. what is the impression you're getting from the clients you speak to and do they still want to keep deploying their money into markets given how lofty some of the valuations are and given that many of the earnings at least for the fourth quarter
4:50 am
have disappointed somewhat in terms of the bottom line >> i think what we're really seeing is the realization by investors, those we speak to who are frepredominantly private investors, this is a year where central banks will keep cash rates extremely unattractive, extremely low. there is really no other possibility for investors to get anything expect being invested, taking exposure. however, the worries about elevated valuations in concern sectors in certain regions are pointing the interest of investors to where there is catch-up potential in other words, there is a clear interest and predominance of attention for so-called value stocks this can include regions let's take, for example, a
4:51 am
market like the uk market, which because of brexit for a long time has been set back, has been lagging behind other regions, but it also includes sectors for example, anything that is related to industrial sectors last year really had a tough 2020 and is now coming back because of the manufacturing sector being more resilient and benefiting directly from china's business cycle and moving ahead. so, in other words, value stocks but with clear catalyst associated and, hence, a selective approach to equities at this point. >> i want to better understand the uk call you just outlined. the fact uk equities in your view could be a good place to put your money relative to u.s. equities the uk narrative appears to be changing when it comes to the easing of restrictions the government sounding a pretty cautious tone when it comes to when we could see lockdowns
4:52 am
lifted and potentially looking to impose a mandatory hotel quarantine for travelers even as vaccinations get rolled out. to what extent is that scenario priced into uk equities and could that pose a downside risk moving forward >> generally speaking, we know that the services sector, this includes travel and hospitality and, hence, anything that is associated to mobility, whether it's internal or from the outside. that services, in other words, are going to be held back. but the interest in the uk equity market -- by the way, it's also the case for the german equity market, is the predominance of sectors that are more related to manufacturing than what they are to services and so the large exposure to sectors expected to do well, especially now in the first quarter, which is going to be a rocky one for several regions of
4:53 am
the world that are battling against the covid infection and have to progress with vaccination very quickly, these are the possibilities for the equity market to actually decouple from some of these situations in services the answer to your question, the valuations in the uk have taken a lot of negative news and it's somewhat a reflection of the past there's a lot of upside and dividend yields. who we're talking about an environment where there have very unattractive yields still, it makes a difference if you're able to get dividend ayouts. this is one of the reasons why we think the uk will be appealing to a number of investors that are looking for value and for catalyst that can give some tailwind to earnings in the months and quarters to come. >> certainly those dividend payments important when it comes to attractiveness of uk
4:54 am
equities we'll leigh it there thank you for joining us now, turning to the u.s., the house of representatives is due to formally deliver its impeach charge against former president donald trump on monday, today. senate majority leader chuck schumer says the upper chamber plans to begin its trial during the week of february 8th trump is accused of inciting the violent attack on the capitol building earlier this month. our nbc news colleague tracie potts joins us live from washington, d.c. it's a big week in washington. joe biden's first full week as president of the united states talk us through the next steps in terms of the impeachment process and also what joe biden is planning to do when it comes to the travel ban. >> reporter: sure. so, the next step is that house managers and the trump defense team, we know he's hired a south carolina lawyer, to be a part of
4:55 am
that team, they will prepare their cases. today we'll see the formal charge transferred to the senate and senators will be sworn in to be part of this trial. then there's about a two-week delay before it actually starts. during that time, the senate plans to work on confirming members of the biden cabinet and try to find money for covid relief to deal with the financial impact of covid. you were asking about president biden. he is now working on a travel ban, travel restrictions that he plans to sign today for people who are not u.s. citizens coming into this country who have traveled to south africa they will no longer be allowed to enter the country because of the new strain of covid ready discovered in south africa according to scientific experts, it has not made it to the u.s. yet, but the new strain from the uk has the travel ban, restrictions will include much of europe and brazil, including the uk where people who are not citizens of
4:56 am
the united states will not be allowed to travel in and the cdc is following up on that by ensuring that people who are traveling into this country have had a negative covid test there had been a two-week reprieve that airlines could ask for if they were not able to confirm that now that goes away people traveling into this country will either have to prove they had a negative test or recovered from the virus. >> thank you so much for breaking it all down for us. great to have you on the program with us. now, later today, jeff will be hosting a virtual davos are forum with key policy makers and leaders. it kicks off at 1715 cet. i'll leave you with a quick look at u.s. futures that is it for today's show. you've been joining myself and joumanna bercetche nt.congde exchange" is mi upex
4:57 am
4:58 am
4:59 am
5:00 am
it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here is your top five at 5 investors bracing for the busiest week of earnings season as the markets look for more fuel to hit fresh record highs breaking news out of the biden administration as we get new details of the latest executive orders from the president targeting american workers. we are live in washington with the latest there the head of the cdc issuing a stark warning on the federal government's grasp of the covid vaccine rollout, saying it's unclear how much o


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on