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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  June 30, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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the flag coming up tomorrow. they concluded their article 4 which is the big report card on the big growth also john leonard, that stock has been a straight line up since the beginning of this week, up 90% the announcement of that breakthrough medicine trial. >> we're out of time on "closing bell" today. "fast money" now we're at new york city, times square, tim russo, tim grasso the chip maker on the move on the backs of earnings. the company's call is now on the way. we'll bring you the trade on this chip stock on the way the stock of didi skidding
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is this well worth the trip? later we're shining a light on dark pools and office retail trading. bob greifeld will joipn us to break it all down. the s&p 500 hits an all-time high closing out the year with a 14% gain the next guest says, just wait, it's about to get even better. really s&p closes at 7% rally this year tom, great to have you with us >> great to be here. >> you're want worried about slowing growth compared to earlier this year, an economy that reopened the first half of the year and an economy that will sort of normalize the back half of the year with a threat of tapering in some form
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>> i think that -- you know, i don't think recovery is a straight line up, but from what we can tell looking at both earnings revisions and conference calls and really talking to clients and businesses, i think there is still quite a lot of pent-up demand, i think both on the consumer side -- right there is the revenge spending -- and then with both wealth effect and rising stock prices, strong credit markets, i think there is a dorpt capex -- corporate capex coming i think there is a surprise in the second half. >> energy was a leader in the first half do you think that's a winning ticket in the second half? >> yes to us energy sits in a special spot because i know investors, you know, kind of cool to the idea of some inflation plays, but energy and oil really is a supply/demand sector that's got
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very attractive fundamentals, then energy stocks have a huge catch-up to that it remains our top idea. >> tom, sorry, the covid trade, excuse me, where are you on names that really actually underperformed in the first half of the year after being the story of 2020? i think you spend a lot of time going through screens and evaluating underperformance. there are some really gross underperformers in the first half of the year what do you think about some of those trades >> jim, if you're referring to some of the secular growth and the fangs, i think they're going to be leaders in the second half i think their turn really came when interest rates and the panic about inflation cooled off in march, and that's shortly after those stocks bottomed. but when i look at the second half, i think you're absolutely right. if the s&p is going to end the year up 25%, and our rationale for doing that is strong markets stay strong, then something like
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apple oram ammazon, which are u4 or 5%, they could have upwards of 20% at where they end the year there could be a price appreciation coming from tech and fang and some of these secular growth names we're not necessarily out of the woods in terms of covid as well. i think there is still some uncertainty from investors and their willingness to embrace upper center stocks broadly. >> tom, how much attention are you paying given it's both rangebound and you have value and growth are there any flags you're worried about exploding or falling? >> it's a great question i don't disagree with the consensus view that rates should be higher in the future. you know, because we have reflation and we have an economy that's recovering, and i think
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in general activity picks up there should be sort of reflationary pressures plus the millennials. i think it's really a question of timing, and to me i think investors thought there was an urgency about where rates would move to and maybe a little panic about that, and they believed the fed was behind the curve now i think there is a realization the fed may be correct on a lot of parts of that transitory argument i think rates in the shorter term probably undershoots people's expectations. that's great for the fang trade as well. >> so, tom, i don't disagree with you, i fully agree when you it comes to the fang trade, but i've got a question for you about bitcoin? where do you stand right now we had this volatility of bitcoin where we were up above 60,000, pulled underneath 30,000, and we've been hanging around this area for about 36,000, 35,000 where do you stand right now do you see more upside at this point in time, or do we see
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ourselves backing and filling? >> i think bitcoin has acted really well. the rug was pulled out from under it this year from both a combination of the threat of taxation regulation in the u.s. and then essentially an outright national ban in china on mining. those two things could have caused a crypto winter, but instead bitcoin really held around 30,000, which i think is a really important level, and now i think, look, it's going to consolidate for a bit, but i don't think it's impossible to say that bitcoin could exit the year around 100,000. i think we're still a long-term positive story for bitcoin it's really about the transformation of the financial system but also the fact it's a generational play. this is one of the big multi-decade stories it's really held up well in the
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face of bad news >> tom, i want to sort of dovetail off the rates question. when do you think the market starts to anticipate higher rates because of the fed tapering i'm wondering if that comes -- it sounds like you don't think it comes in the back half of the year, or you think that the markets can see tapering in the cards and not react poorly to it, be just fine >> i'm probably more in the second camp. you know, this most recent fmco meeting was really the fed taking off some of the tail risks related to covid i think that was the shock that went through markets, and s&p not only acted pretty well, june was a great month, but interest rates cooperated, too. i think it's very possible we could have a 2% tenure by the end of the year and we're still s&p 4600, and fang could have a
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great year at a 2 maersk tenure, you're pa paying, and i think fame fame doesn't look a few miles of trade in the tenure. >> tom lee you can read more about tom lee's opinion. i should be more bullish from where we are right now >> he's done extraordinary work. if you listen to tom, he's been on the show a number of times. he's pretty steadfast and being steadfast, he's pretty spot on so far be it for me to cast aspersions one way or another. it's interesting in the last conversation about you could see the marketly
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what i will say we haven't talked about yet, and tim hads brought it up since last night the leaders in the market. and some of theed names have been parabolic for good reason. the ten year, which has vascillated, there's no reason to think tech won't go higher as well >> also that tech will be a performer in this environment when it was a top performer in the pandemic environment can you have it both ways, where tech is the growth engine when the economy is stalled or down and out, and tech can be the growth engine when the comedy is reopening and reinflating, time,
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what do you think? >>. >> we've seechb a gun under fracture dispro disproportionate about what happened to the dollar and investment yields in the first quarter was giving way to only what was punctual. those feds were starting to work, but if you look at where we are year to date, some of them have been apple, amazon, 2%, 5% i actually think they are positioned for all-weather stocks in the second half, if we got covid again, amazon is going to outperform f. at.
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ly. >> everyone that was boworried about inflation pointed to those types of things. there is still a handful of things that are transitory there's no blanket statement either way, right? that's the way i look at it. i don't see above 2% everything working. i think right here between 155 and 175. what happens to high value tech at 2% yield, software, for instance what do you think? >> it's a great question and it dpentds on what these guys were just talking about, which would be the variant ofly -- only.
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the reality that i think folks would go for is hit the pause button in a big way. which means is it amazon, who really hacht done a whole lot, or it's apple that has done a whole lawsuit,ly i think we could very easily see that once again wlrks it means they're those high multiple stocks that kind of kicked back in, if there is any kind of slowdown economically, i think there are names that would start moving back to the upside again. it's interesting, though, i don't know if it's as much about the ten-year right now as it is about the backdrop from the potential from a medical standpoint, what's going to be going on in the next six months. coming up, the real read
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micron shares are moving let's go to julia boorstin hi, julia. >> the one in utah, texas instruments, say revenues and margins surpass expectations for the third quarter. the company says they achieved the highest sequential earnings improvement in its history the company also issued guidance for the next fiscal fourth quarter with seeded projections, saying that micron is in the best position ever to capitalize on long-term demand trends across data center, intelligent edge and user devices.
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he also weighed in on new types of demand, saying, quote, we are continuing to see record automotive and industrial segment demand, yet despite our best efforts, we may be unable to meet all the demand for these customers over the next few months given certain semiconductor component shortages in our supply chain. there was a lot of commentary on the call, which is still often going, about outstripping supply it is also worth noting the stock gained about 2.5% during the trading day today. guys, back over to you >> thank you, julia boorstin guy, what did you make of this quarter? >> it's a fantastic quarter just looking at it. i'm not sure why it's lower. maybe revenue which is a slight miss i don't think that's important what i will point to you is it came close to 32 cents same quarter last year was 18% and much better than 29.5% that
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the street was looking for it's really a fantastic quarter, and you see the average selling price is higher as well. it's a company that's operating better, and to my opinion, it's still reasonable on an evaluation level bmo capital put a 110 price target on it before earnings i think the stock should go there. >> being supply constrained should, in theory, be a good thing. what gets these companies the win, it's commodity pricing. >> that's what's interesting here it was better, it's expected to actually go higher, and that's a big fear for investors, that they're going to roll. i think expectations for this august kwquarter were already pretty high. if you want to push back the supply constraints right now, ultimately that's a long-term positive the stock has a nice move across those lows and the charts are
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actually interesting there is nothing to sell this thing off on >> i'm shocked that guy didn't use the words good news, bad price action are you shocked? >> dnand is about 75%, ram is slightly higher. dram is slightly higher, so i would be a seller of micron. >> pete? >> what i liked most about this call was listening to the ceo, how confident he was, and he was projecting out further that dram would be up another 20%. he's talking about the revenue being as strong as it is these guys just mentioned it's 70% of the revenue, dram i think it's good. two weeks ago the stock was trading at 76, it ran up to 85
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so unless it was an absolute complete blowout quarter, which it was pretty close, you just wonder what they had to say to continue the move it just made why wouldn't it just be a bit of a pause for now and then it starts making those legs up towards 110 like the bmo analyst was projecting and what guy was talking about as well. it doesn't seem that far-fetched, especially when you look at where this trade is now and the growth and obviously the demand is there. >> just broadly we were talking about the semiconductor etf and talking about how cyclical it was. t tim, you actually made this point. in the world where tom lee lives, it will go up another 70%. >> you have to have the semiconductors lead. think about the trends keeping supply type, but more importantly the demand dynamic
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here, mobile, ai, gaming these are the places where even the commoditized chip plays, but those are the secular trends that are very important. markets don't move higher without the semis. coming up, we're diving into the retail trade-in boom just how many retailers are in the market later chinese ride hailing company didi with a soft closing well off its intranet highs. stick around, "fast money" is back after this. (realtor) so, any questions? (wife) we'll take it!
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welcome back to "fast money. look at shares of bed bath and beyond today, up 11% the 2021 outlook gets raised here this has been a reddit favorite, but tim, what do you think of the fundamentals here? >> i think the fundamentals are somewhat challenged but this is a company that has been forced to do some aggressive action here this has been a short interest story, this is a company that i don't think their best days are in front of them, but this kind of move gifve you see a sense o where the interest is. >> you have to believe in that turnaround and the restructuring. they've done a lot they've shed a lot of the drugstore part of the business, for instance, they slimmed down on the promotions. maybe you're not getting a 20% coupon anymore, i'm not -- >> sorry, pete >> sorry if you like a deal. what do you make of the stock?
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>> it's going to hold me back from buying any more of those keurigs and all the rest of those things the reality, mel, when we look at the stock, we see a stock that fits the whole reddit craze, right, because we look at the short interest here and obviously the management is newer. they've been there for a while now, trying to change things up a little bit while they're doing that, we're still seeing a stock that basically has an incredible amount of short interest that stands out for the crowd when we see the moves, they're always dramatic. the moves we see out of this particular name or a gamestop or anc, they're all very, very similar and they're all similar in the structure we're looking at as well so i think until we see those numbers start to change, mel, i think we're going to see this name continue to be very volatile because that short interest is at a level right now where it makes a lot of sense for those that are going after exactly what they are doing right now. this stock hit 39 early in the
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session and did pull back and still finished up significantly higher but at $33. there is a lot of activity in there. we see it every day. we have four or five hits for the month of june. june is over, but the month of june we had four or five hilts o unusual. there is a lot in this stock telling me this isn't over just yet. >> what a staggering performance of 80% year to date. we are just getting new numbers of how many retail investors are in the market. morgan stanley out with a notice saying retail is 9.8% of daily retail trading volume in the united states, but still far above the long-term median bob greifeld is here, current ceo of nasdaq. how are you doing? >> great, thanks for having me
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>> you see the activity in certain stocks in particular, and i'm wondering if you think -- or if you can tell the retail investor that the playing field is level for them, because what really stands out when you go on some of these message boards, and i understand this may not be representative of every single retailer investor out there, but certainly a broad swath of the new investor, they feel like the system is rigged there is that perception there >> i don't feel that way at all, and i don't think that is any way indicative of the general retail investor. what we've seen over the fullness of time is retail investors get very engaged in the market when they think there is a profit opportunity for themselves it wasn't too many years ago we were complaining about the girth of retail investors. retail investors were not in the market several years ago because they didn't think the market was going to rise. it's certainly a sign of bullishness when you see retail investors in the marketplace the retail investors today as compared to a few years ago
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certainly had the most efficient opportunity to trade in the market, the most frictionless opportunity that's seen in this market across all time and across all markets globally. >> i want to delve deeper into some of the issues that some of these investors have with the quote, unquote, system, bob, and as a former ceo of nasdaq, you probably have that understanding. 10% of daily trading volume is not indicative of changes. 9% through the dark pool if you take a look at individual shares, like, for instance, reddit favorite amc, the vast majority of shares or the majority of shares on a daily basis actually trade off exchange should we be concerned that the pricing that we see is not a full and accurate price and so
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much gets routed off exchange, not on the public exchange we see the quotes on the bottom of the screen, the ticker is public exchange pricing. >> yes, so i would say it's very clear that the exchanges are important for price recovery, and it's important to know that the lid exchange is governed off the prices if you think about where the price recovery happens, it happens off lid exchanges, and where are the prices happening they clearly happen in the dark, but we see price formation, price setting is clearly happening on the lid accident changsz, and i think marketing is working well as a result of that >> there was a solution to this,
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and that was to allow the public exchanges to price in increments smaller than a penny which that could make it more competitive with some of the wholesalers in terms of pricing you guys are able to undercut at fractions of a penny and make that spread. would that solve this problem? >> i think that's a healthy step, but i think it has to be taken in conjunction with access fees access fees are less than 50% of the minimum, i think that would make a lot of sense. i think there is definitely ways we can improve the market in that regard. >> what would that do with birtu's business >> birtu has the situation where it's taking the counterpart of every trade. if a retail trader want to buy, then we have to sell, whether we want to sell or not
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then we have to manage our position in the manager market as a result of that. that dynamic doesn't change per se with regard to changing tick sizes. they've built up its ability to be on the other side of where investor sentiment is. when sellers want to sell, we have to buy, even though we might have the same sell/buyer so all that dynamic doesn't directly tie into what we're talking about today, so our ability to manage the inventory, manage the risk in an environment where we're providing liquidity on the opposite side of where the retailer wants to be >> okay. i also want to ask you about one issue that is really hot on these investors' minds, bob, and that is payment for order flow and whether or not it puts the retailer investor at a disadvantage some people who are experts in market structure say that there is an inherent conflict of interest for brtu to do payment
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for order flow that best execution, you're actually looking to also maximize profit so therefore there is an inherent conflict there. can you address that how do we know, for instance, that the best price is actually the best price and that price savings, whatever it may be, is passed on to that retailer investor >> yeah, so i think there is a degree of silliness to some of these arguments here one, you've got to step back and look at the retail marketplace today. you have commission-free trading. i've been around a lot longer than you, but i certainly remember back in the day the cost of trading and the wideness of the spread. so now we have the zero cotts we're trading with spreads that are at a penny examine sometimes less so it has never been a better time to be a retail investor in the history of mankind so that's a very good thing. now, brtu has a very difficult job.
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i've been around this industry for a long period of time. they have to guarantee not just the best price you see in the lit markets, but generally price improvement on top of that brtu has paid out billions of dollars in price improvement to retail investors retail investors are the direct beneficiary of that. as a part of that, there is a payment for the retail firm involved certainly nobody can hold it against a retail brokerage firm to have some source of revenue, weintraub or others. so payment flow is certainly a form of that but that doesn't mean we have to look and say that is the fundamental question the fundamental question is how is the retail investor being treated? the retail investor is being treated incredibly well because there's no place on the planet that gets that kind of retail trader experience, right they're not paying any commission, and they're getting
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an improvement on what's available in the lit exchanges i'm looking for a problem solved here >> when you say billions of dollars in price improvement, that's the report that vrtu itself published, $3 billion, i think the number was, in price improvement in 2020? >> yeah, that's $3 billion directly in the pocket of a retail investor as compared to -- >> unless the broker pockets some of that which we just established, right >> no, no, no, no. i'm saying the retail investor, right, so think about a pie. so the pie certainly has a price improvement element to it which goes directly into the pocket of the retail investor. that $3 billion number is the number that went to retail investors, hard stock, right they're the direct beneficiary of that and the metrics you're comparing to is what's available in a lit market. you got zero commission, $3
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billion of price improvement where is the problem >> well, some dispute the $3 billion number, but i get what you're saying, bob we're out of time, but we do hope to have you back. this is a great conversation and there's so many more questions and answers to get out there bob, thank you >> thank you >> bob greifeld, the chairman of vr vrtu the "wall street journal" was reporting that the numbers that the wholesaler actually gave is depending how it calculates. >> i think how we started out is retail investors are here to stay, so you buy the cbme, coe and you have the ice
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probably indices are moving higher so you have a wide base of buyers. >> i'm not sure the retail investor is here to say. i think it was probably one-offs for retail investors that's not to say there archen'a lot of smart-minded folks. i think the trade is vrtu. this is a difficult time to be in this position, especially since i think we're going -- any fed equals more volatility the fact that you have good and construct ty constructive markets, and this is a stock that has not performed that good, frankly, i think the tailwinds will be good for them which i am sure will come as soon as the fed matches. i think it's here in the fourth quarter, anyway. >> if you think that retail investors are the only ones
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trading gamestop, that institutions are trading alongside and they're getting a lot of that volume as well >> i think bob did an amazing job, and we had a special a few weeks ago where one of the points i tried to make is the playing field has never been as flat a decade, 15 years ago, 20 year% w ago when people were paying a price on top of a commission doesn't exist anymore. so there are a lot of things for people to be appoplectic about, but a level playing field is not there. we're naming the new cfo who is replacing greg smith leaving the company early next month and will take the job permanently in august is brian west brian west is formerly the cfo
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to join boeing as the cfo. you might say, why are they hiring brian west? it's all about a comfort and familiarity between the cfo, dave calhoun, and brian west if you look at their histories going through nielsen, also through jay aviation he comes in as the new cfo brian is going to take over for the cfo in august. there will be an interim person from the finance department at boeing who will run the department between the end of -- or the beginning of july and then the middle of august or so, but again, brian west is the new cfo. he's got extensive experience in the aviation industry and in manufacturing, and there is a comfort level there between dave calhoun and him, and egshe is t new cfo for boeing >> thank you, phil, phil lebeau.
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>> he is part of the dave calhoun era. he is also a major executive i don't think this is market-moving news but it's an important part of the transformation of boeing's c-suite. coming up, china's ride rail company didi we have how it stacks up against uber and lyft. virgin galactic grounded today. we've got the details for you when "fast money" returns.
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we've got more on this block-busted ipo bob? >> that's a good way to describe it didi popped in its debut, but closed 1% higher from $14 where it was priced which is already conservative its current market price of less than $67 billion puts it less
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than it was a few months ago lyft is around 20 billion. uber and lyft have underperformed the s&p 500 since going public a few years ago and the regulatory environment is still uncertain. didi faces a certain outlook, but as a chinese company, there is another layer of complexity it's under scrutiny and its counterparts narrowed its focus during the pandemic, it is shifting to food delivery to freight. the kweb etf is down 9% in 2021 with some of the biggest names like alibaba this was a little disappointing for didi
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it closed at 1$14.14 on the low, meaning no retail investor probably made money today. this has been the problem all along with the ipo market. all the gains have been made on the first day of trading. in the aftermarket, there is very little trade to be made it's disappointing for retail investors in a great ipo environment. melissa? originally we were talking about a $100 billion valuation, so it's come down from even then. pete, did you traffic in this name today? are you looking at it? >> i did not i am looking at it, mel. they've had a difficult time sometimes they've even pulled back a little bit for what they were actually going to deliver to public markets. that's just been part of the process. it feels a little bit weak right
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now. that doesn't mean, though, that there aren't going to be opportunities. i'm looking at didi, i'll keep a close eye on it. if it starts to dip below some of the levels where it is now at 14, i think it might be a possibility. but they have gone in so many different directions and they haven't had the right direction yet, so i think that remains one of the problems. we talk about it with uber sometimes and we talked about it with some of the other rideshare where they just have to have the right focus but they've got to make money the question you're always asking has been, when will you make money the projection is out there, but it will be interesting to see with didi what the actual path is going to be, because it seems to be, based upon what bob just said, there are multiple different layers they're trying to get into, and i think they ought to focus on one early on and master that and then move on >> if you want a path to profitability in ride hailing, it's probably not going to be a didi, especially when it had, as
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bob mentioned, a black eye from being a chinese listed company they haven't done well so far, guys, so of the three, didi, lyft or uber, would you rather rather >> would you love or would you rather rather? it's lyft, and they have had profit for a while back in may, the analyst really liked it jeffries put a $70 price target. very quietly, lyft has gone from 47 to 50 they think they will be profitable, but definitely by this time next year. so to me the one that makes sense is lyft. coming up, powering higher ge shares getting a big boost today. option trading to look on getting into the action. >> announcer: follow the "fast money" podcast
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welcome back we have a news alert in the world of college sports. let's get to kate rogers for that hey, kate. >> melissa, some big news for the world of sports. the ncaa has adopted a name and
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likeness policy now saying that student college athletes will have the opportunity now to benefit from their name, image and likeness in all three divisions they adopted a policy suspending ncaa name and likeness rules for all incoming and current student athletes in all sports once again, some big news there for all those student athletes and that will begin on thursday. back over to you >> thank you, kate rogers. pete, this is great news for college athletes >> it really is, mel, because the reality is this is big business when i say that, i'm talking billions of dollars in the business itself. for a long time, it wasn't the big business, it was more about the scholarships and everything else but we have morphed into something far different now 20, 30, 40 years ago, and because of what we're seeing now and the big money involved, i think it makes a whole localit of sense r
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these athletes to get that endorsement deal, to be able to profit for everybody there no one is able to guarantee that payment level on the professional side. i think this is a great decision for the ncaa i think they had to make this decision if they didn't, i think they were under huge pressure to maybe lose what they already own which is the college sports world. and i think this was a monstrous decision and that's why they decided to make it as quickly as they could >> just from the background, you speak from the vantage point of speaking with lots of students in minnesota >> yes at university of minnesota, a lot of people wearing that number 32 jersey back in the day. paying for a little money for it, i maybe could have capitalized, mel the reality is this is a monster business and we all understand that the reality is the players do deserve a little something from this, and obviously they'll get more than just a little something. they'll get endorsement deals that i think could be very, very sizeable
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coming up, check out ge getting a boost today. i'll tell you how they play this one when "fast money" returns.
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we're talking constellation brands catch the full exclusive interview top of the hour on ""mad money."" lighting up, gaining on ge today. tony, what did you see >> yeah, so ge trading in a range found here over the past three or four months is starting to break out here. we saw a fairly large bullish trade here with options today. if you look at ge today, it traded about two times the average daily volume but calls outpaced puts about 4.5 to 1 one particular trade stood out, 60,000 contracts of the january 2022 $14 calls were purchased for about a dollar earlier today. this particular trader laid out $5 million in premium to bet that ge will be at least above $15 by january 2022, which is about 11% premium or 11% higher than where it's currently trading today. >> grasso, don't you have like a
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slogan for ge? >> 2020 and 2021 ge sees health care split for multiple expansion this is for a reopening of the economy. it's industrial, it's airplanes, it's everything you want to roll up it's still a buy, i'm still holding it >> tony, thank you, tony zhang be sure to catch h sishow on friday at 5:30 eastern time. coming up, "final trades." ♪♪ ♪♪
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time for the final trade let's go around the horn >> i'm giving you melco, mel we're seeing a bit of a change over there and i see huge option activity i think this is going higher >> guy adami >> i'm giving you a burrito blowout for the fourth of july >> i wonder if that's a good thing or a bad thing steve grasso >> it's you, clear secure. i think this one is going
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higher >> i like virtu, and i think if you look at the markets overall, it's their time. >> thanks for watching "fast n't y. dogo anywhere. ""mad "mad money" starring jim cramer starts now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market summer and i plan to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica my job is not just to entertain but to help you make money i admit it this i


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