tv Fast Money CNBC September 24, 2021 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
dynamic. also, next thursday, friday, no jobs numbers if we get inflation numbers coming out, we will see if that changes the whole bond market path as well. >> fascinating such a big move in yields but both equities and dollar kind of ending the week flat and reversing its initial move that's where we stand with the ten-year at 145 to close out "closing bell. "fast money" starts now. overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fas money. i'm melissa lee. brian kelly, peter najarian, co-founder of market rebellion.com. tonight -- crypto crackdown as china bans all cryptocurrency transactions we will tell you why our own crypto baller, b.k., is calling this great news. and where he sees yields headed next. and how this epic drop for one commodity could have one of
our traders going nuclear. but we start off with a big buzzkill nike getting rock after concerns now, loyal "fast money" fans out there, and there are many, you know we tackled nike on last year's show. we were on the company's call and broke in the moment nike announced the guidance cut shares only down a little after hours but today dropped like a rock, worst day since june of last year. given today's market reaction, has this changed the story on nike i'll go to the shareholder tim seymour, what do you say >> the shareholder was one of the more bullish ones. at least my glass was half full last night what do i do today i hate where the stock is on the chart but that's not how i invest i use technicals as a drive post but they're not driving me in oor out of positions, at least not in the case of nike. the case of nike, they lowered to mid-single digits, msd.
is that enough is the question "the street" asked today and i think in terms of a couple downgrades, 22 earnings, that's the story. 23 seems to be a story if everyone is willing to give them a benefit of the doubt on a growing fitness market, able to build the market aside from profits, they grew stamly, somewhat better than expected the core business, demand side of the story, we know is very solid. we know there's supply and suddenly ceo donahue sounds like the fed, the word transitory, i believe, was used. that's the question, how transitory we're ten weeks of production in vietnam and there's a question if it all ended tomorrow could they many ramp back up
so disturbed but not shaken for one of the finest brands out there. >> and nike, this is a loss of ten weeks of production because of the factories closed, whether it be 50% of the apparel factories or 50% of the foot company factories. nadine, what do you say about nike today is it worth 40 times next year's earnings at this point when there is a question mark about this next year's earnings? >> mel, i think tim made a really good point about being a long-term shareholder. if your investment horizon is short term, you're looking at the technicals and mine say i wouldn't trade this right now. a lot of things have broken down but if you're an intermediate to long-term holder, as tim pointed out, really strong demand, this isn't a problem with management, transitory can be for a while though, that's your point, mel but it will take some time before you see the kflow through
to and kmad the bottom line. so now it will be too late for the holiday season to find the shipping containers, even if you can produce the company. so you're looking 2022 in terms of calendar year to look at the stock. again, it depends on your duration. >> this is what bht said about nike -- we feel the situation is too large to control even for the best-run athletic brand in the world. even nike doesn't have a grip on this problem it's out of their control. >> yep. >> what do you do here the message is for a lesser-run company of any sort that manufacturers goods in asia, it's going to be terrible. >> exactly i think that's the takeaway here this to me is the biggest threat to the equity market in general. it's not a demand problem, it's a supply issue so it doesn't matter what your earnings projections are, it doesn't matter how much you
think you can sell, if you can't get it, that doesn't matter. and this also kind of shows how complicated the federal reserve's task is here because you have people who are willing to buy things and that's creating this kind of inflationary push. but if you slow the economy down, then somebody like a nike or any of these high multiple stocks are going to have a real problem. i'm not a buyer of nike here i think if i had to sum it up, i agree with tim and nadine, the tldr on this, too long, didn't read, for boomers out there, christmas is canceled. >> christmas is canceled who is the grinch here tonight, brian kelly? >> brutal. >> tim, you didn't like the valuation going into the quarter. what do you think of the valuation now, 6% down >> still too high, way too high. i think the problem is this, it's okay to have a higher pe level if everything is working and everything is going great but there comes that point in
time, and it happens to every company, there's that stumble. now the stumble is the combination of a lot of things but now supply chain being the biggest, i believe there are other issues as well there's a lot of pushback in china for nike products now. if you look at what their rate of growth was, it's nothing near what it once was that is still somewhat concerning north america is still solid but not growing at the same pace either there are a lot of things to factor in looking at a company like nike and then a company still trading at a forward somewhere close to 40, i this i when you look at the historical and go back and look mostly at the 22, maybe 28, historic pe. so the fact it's trading at a 40 now, i understand it it has digital that's one of the things that's been absolutely phenomenal for them, great growth area. but that still doesn't give me a reason to say, you know what, it dropped off whatever 6% today, has that brought me back into it absolutely not. >> let's switch gears here,
ten-year mode jumping to 1.45% and that is the magic number he's been calling for. where do we head from here let's get to the chart master, master carter worth, to break it all down. >> my first thought is, i have no idea. we're all in the dark to some extent but let's try to finish it out together. i have four identical chart and one long-term chart. first chart is a one-year chart of yields. what's important, we know we peaked 1.77 on the 3rd of march and know where we bought them on the 20th of july, one spot, 1.42 1.45, the reason that's been cited for months, that's the mid-point. it's exactly to the penny where the downtrend has been lying since the peak look at the second chart, same time frame but i included the 150-day moving average, something i rely on.
where is the 1.45 to the penny third chart is charts one and two combined we have the downtrend line and 150-day moving average right where we are now, inherently difficult level. big move to a difficult level. fourth chart, same time frame again, one year. now i've drawn the opposite or opposing line. you have two converging lines here consensus is we increasingly break out to the upside when hunch is we're not in position to do that right here and now. the final chart, it shows the wedge in sort of not detail but more importance how long term. this is the line that's been in effect for three years i think having approaching it quite quickly, rates back off at this point >> so buy treasuries, carter >> you got it. >> all right carter, we will see you in "options action. carter braxton werth do you agree with that take, jim? that applies we're sort of churning, we will hit this level
and go back down >> first of all, no one uses the term to the penny more emphatically or more convincingly than carter i bet he used that same phrase on 1/11 on the ten-year downside in july. carter made great calls on these terms. hard to argue with carter. but the question is, is the trend at some point ready to break? and we're at the upend of a downward trend line. i think we're in a case here where inflation is something we cannot fight rising interest rates of this week are a combination of the fed and listen to fedex, listen to costco, listen to everybody i think rates are moving higher. i think it's very good for cyclical industrial bank and value-oriented equities which underperformed for months. again, my treasury call is, like carter, i will not tell you exactly where we end up but to me the move is ultimately higher even if we're sold on the upside to yields and you see a bounce
in treasuries here would i not be staying around for that much longer. >> brian, where do you stand on treasuries what do you think the chart tells us about the economy, if anything >> that's the trillion dollar question it's hard to read too much into the bond market because it's so manipulated by the federal reserve. i don't mean that as a slight, it's just a fact they're buying bonds. for me, i'm short ten-year notes so i think yields are going higher i think we're going to get that breakout, primarily because the fed just told you hey, hey, by the way, we're going to stop buying bonds in a little bit there are ten-year from buyers overseas but that could easily reverse if you get any type of inflation scare, which i think we're getting once again we probably reached kind of the peak of the deflation scare, and with the supply chain issues, things will start to ramp back up that's my call on it i could be wrong carter has been 100% right i'm just hoping this one time
maybe he's wrong. >> how are you trading treasuries, nadine, if you are >> we have been. we have been pretty much trading with chop and that's where i agree with carter, in the short term we've just been trading them and i also agree with brian in that looking forward, if you look forward the next few months, we think that rates are rising so we would be more inclined to be looking at high yields, lqd in terms of the natf that's nonhigh yield. but what this is all saying if you think inflation is here for i while and growth of gdp accelerating, rates are going up so you want to play it a different way than buying treasuries but for a trade, carter may be right. >> do you think yields are going higher based on higher economic output or accelerating growth,
pete given what we heard from nike and fedex over the past couple of days, how are you feeling >> well, it does make you wonder, mel, we're talking about two major, massive companies and giving us some lines, what about supply chains and the other about workers. it does say a lot about what's going on i look at it this way, mel, i think the ten years will likely continue the churn it's been in but i think the real thing will be the velocity of the move. i think it goes higher towards the end of the year. as a matter of fact i continue to see in the etfs, all very, very bullish looking to the upside and going out all the way to december. when i see stuff like that, i think the longer-range tells me ten years going higher how fast it goes, i think that's the very meaningful thing, velocity of that move. if it continues on this churning process, that's going to be very, very helpful for a lot of people other people, if it gets that velocity and starts shooting to the upside, we're going to see a
lot more volatility come back in the market as well. >> that's the thing, we've seen the moves happen real fast when they happen. even in just the past couple of days what was the move in the ten, 15 bits or something like that? that's kind of unheard of in the course of a short amount of time >> i don't know, i really don't think it is and i don't think it is from the levels that we're at i realize on percentage bases, guy talks about this all the time the farther down the curve you move, the more duration you have i don't want to bore people to death but there's a much more significant move in terms of basis points you have a lot more volatility seeing the move of 25 basis points off those lows in the last week or so, i don't think it's shocking given the inflation reads we had and a fed that signaled november's game on by the way, two other major central banks, norway, bank of england. norway hiked this week
bank of england signaled they could be hiking in the first quarter. these are all reasons rates could move higher. i don't think the velocity as peach talks about be is watching is something i'm worried about right now relative to where they came from. coming up -- bitcoin is launching but b.k. saids this great news and will explain. and the commodity and how the traders are playing it
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welcome back to "fast money. we have a bitcoin alert. crypto prices crashing after china's latest crackdown put bitcoin in the crosshairs. hey, kate rooney. >> hey, mel, some bitcoin investors are worried today. dropping to around $43,000 started the week around $47,000. ether, the most-traded cryptocurrency, down around 8% today. this all started as china said
that all krieptio-related services are illegal, including trading, order mafing, derivatives and they say overseas exchanging are illegal as well. this is just the latest crackdown out of beijing, certainly not the first. this summer the chinese government moved to stamp out crypto mining. they said it's the energy, intent or process of creating new coin and they went after some payment companies providing crypto services back in july they told all baba and ant group to stop providing some of those crypto services. and it's not just regulators out of beijing some are worried about increased securitiny from the sec and gary gensler, the sec chairman, with more oversight this week back to you. >> kate rooney, thanks have to go to the bitcoin baller here, b.k you're a contrarian. when the news came out, you said this could be great news
why is that? >> i'll give you three reasons why it's great news. first of all, easy one, china isn't as big a market as it has been -- it's not even a driver of the market today. so this is -- that doesn't really matter. number two is that, you know, this news has been out there for a while. if you actually look at the release today, it was dated september 15th this news has been in the market but the third and probably most important reason, i brought along a chart done by my friends as john street capital show how bitcoin performed every time china bared down on them look at that i'm sure you remember, melissa, i called in to "fast money" on that date to talk about the banning of bitcoin in china and look what's happened since then, up 3,600%. so when china bans bitcoin and the price goes down, to me that's a massive opportunity
because it has had zero impact on the price of bitcoin, and china just isn't even a big market. >> so what have you been doing today, yesterday >> i'm long and strong long and strong. i came into the day long and strong and i would buy more here if i had more cash. >> have you been adding to ethereum, tim, on the back of the news >> i have been watching it levels around 3,000 are important. brian talked about the opportunities, all pullbacks really, and they largely have been in the last six months, you know it's on a great run, but it had three drawdowns of 35% or more one 60, and one 45 and still up 80%. so, yes, i'm buying weakness i think there are levels around here where we look like we may be holding but i think that is kind of the message i'm hearing. >> pete? >> you know, the interesting thing is, and i think better
than anybody, the bitcoin baller knows this -- sorry about my voice. but 70% of the global mining has been done by china in the past now they're under 30%. that's a big difference, mel i think that's why i feel a lot more comfortable about whatever china's decisions are going forward, they are not as meaningful as they once were because of that, that's why i totally agree with b.k., and john was talking about it too, that's why it's not as negative in the longer term short term, sure longer term, absolutely not. up next -- we're revealing our chart of the week. it's a good one. why one oofur traders could have a major meltdown over this move we're back after this. grandparents! we want to put money aside for them, so...change in plans. alright, let's see what we can adjust. ♪♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. okay. mom, are you painting again? you could sell these.
. there's still time left to sign up for this delivery alpha. sign up for some of the biggest names in this virtual event. register now at deliveringsalpha.com. and this is a "fast money" first. history in the making. uranium prices plunging, taking down uranium etfs like the sruuf trust that fell 12% this week. the fund stocked up on metal and the fund became a popular one. b.k. has this move what's your take on this >> i bought uranium today so i'm long on uranium. but for me it's a slow money trade and reminds me of bitcoin back in 2013 you have an asset everybody kind of lapsed out a little bit and eventually have to buy so i want to buy uranium on any dip. >> nadine, you have been
sniffing around this space. >> i think b.k. is right if you look at it in the short term, technicals might have eck broen down a little bit but intermediate terms are really solid. the etf ura, low range of our trading range is $21.85, so we would enter that of the but there's a 4/1 upside to downside so i agree with b.k. >> and ccj >> i have been riding that ccj and now i'm holding back ran to 26 and then pulled back so i'm worried it might go worthless at the end of the month into october but i saw u activity this week i'm on board with the gang i think we will see a turnaround as well. >> sam, can you get on board uranium? >> where does holding the bag mean where does that expression come
from >> you don't want to get into that there may be some bag you want to hold. >> yes, we don't want to get into this. you're right ccj, the uranium trade is like a lot of the commodities trade there's a lot of cyclical locality with this if i'm stepping back into the future trades, i like platinum, gold, some of it beleaguered and based on industrial activity, where you will also see diversification as an asset class. pgms, platinum palladium i think look interesting here. i don't understand why we have to own uranium b.k. brings an interesting point. there are times we felt this was the future of energy and i think now i'm not sure that is. time for the "final trade" around the horn. nadine >> in a nutshell, rdsa, a great
industrial in terms of energy and l & g. we think as industrials get back on track, they're going to benefit in the energy space. >> i'm going to stick with energy along with her. cvx, i like what they're doing i think the entire energy space is going higher. >> b.k., brian kelly >> i will stick with the future of energy, nuclear ura, put my money where my mouth is that does it for us here on "fast money. don't go anywhere, "options action" is up next
welcome to friday and "options action. i'm melissa lee. coming up tonight, it's been the best-performing financial stock in 40 years and you never heard of it. and big blues. the stock could soon be singing a different tune. and it's important even though we covered it in "fast money," we're going to cover it again. how to trade the rates let's get right to it. carter werth, what is the