tv Fast Money CNBC September 30, 2021 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
>> either way, we do know for sure september was sloppy, down 4.8% with the s&p 500, and day across the board declines for the majors >> march 2020 month was down something like 12% we were down 35% in five weeks yes, the worse since then, but not nearly as into. thank you so much for watching "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq marketsite, this is facebook i'm melissa lee. tonight's trader lineup -- tonight on fast, cleanup in aisle nine, shares of bed bath & beyond tanking today plus a big call on crypto. with you biggest names on the trade set get ready for bitcoin to double before the end of the year pete is taking on his best idea,
and why this stock is ready to rock were start with a late-session sell-off. s&p 500 dropping 1.2% today, while the dow fell nearly 550 points, all three major averages handing in their worst quarter since -- so what's the setup as we head into the final three months of the year guy, what do you say >> i didn't see that one come coming i thought quarter end we would get some window dressing that clearly didn't take place i've been the last month and a half, incorrectly, but i still think the ten-year trades north between now and thanksgiving by the way, i'll say it again. i think that's the most constructive thing that could happen that would be your sort of run of the mill sell-off from the all-time highs, and probably the
most positive thing for the bulls out there. though i didn't see today, i think it's going to happen over the next couple weeks. >> this was money flowing out of cyclicals, right, tim? the tech stocks held up today. >> yeah, in some sense, you get a china pmi that pretty south of 50, which means contraction, not a huge surprise, but i think there's some question on global growth i think cyclicals also had outperformed over the last couple days as well. we've been watching fedex for weeks. we've been watching industrials for weeks, and the story handle been particularly good i think this week also has punctuated some of the dynamics around the fed there were two other three different angles we're now talking about the fed in the context of the market. obviously tapering, in some
sense they are getting ready to move higher. there's some of the just the turmoil around the fed, some of the announcements in the resignations, the fed being held accountable. i think there's been the dynamic frankly, and while we know it's a forgone conclusion, it will get passed there's certainly a lot of focus on the winding down of the treasury account, and a deficit that's funded, and a lot of concern about where we are all the time when gdp for the third quarter has been downgraded, and i think people are less optimistic about the strength and the economy they were a couple weeks ago sure, those all play into a quarter end when the stocks have had an heroic run. >> i think we're setting up to the end of the year. >> you know, i think i'm more constructive guy mentioned quarter end a lot
of people i've been speaking to are looking to free up cash. what i saw, and i think it's been mentioned before as well, a lot of optionality in the market, continues to stay long to me that kind of stuck out across sectors within the markets. i think we're setting up positively going into the final quarter. with all that said, i'm really not sure what the general public expects expects. there's no way to step up and function to the right every day. i think a bit of a pull back is healthy. um to look at the subsectors that are direct how people are setting up i saw a very constructive outlook. >> pete, your take >> mel, i think the velocity has
been incredible. we've the recovery after a nice move in energy, specifically in crude oil itself that's why we're seeing the spikes in volatility, in my opinion. otherwise, i think it could be more calm. we also sold off 110 points of the nasdaq in the final hour, so a lot of folks at the very end of the month or end of the quarter, having that kind of experience where they probably had some nerves shooting at them, but going into q4 and closing out the year, i think a lot of the same areas of the market that have been improving or shown nice gains, i think we have more room to the up side. i think if the ten-year goes at a better pace and not absolutely climb to the up side, i think that gives us a much better
base, and i continue to love the energy space i agree with bonawyn, i think there's a lot of potential for the markets to close out the year at a higher level. >> let's say we go to 4100 at the end of the year, are we higher than we are today >> yeah, i think so. >> do we trade around this >> absolutely, that's what it has to the i think that's the absolutely the indicate if you're asking me to page out the scenario, 2100 i think sets up for pretty much a mind-numbing rip to the up side near year end. i absolutely think we could close significantly higher than we are now if you're playing knockout options, not that i said to get too in the weeds here, that's a perfect setup, but i think the market will find its way in terms of yield i think the initial sell-off log on the back of yields, but
certainly to tim's point, the market will understand yields going higher maybe is a constructive thing i think been can be higher, having tested 4100 first >> what's top on the shopping list, tim? >> first of all, in the ten year, it already gives you some sense if the fear is about growth in that environment, i'm not going to run too far away from apple and google apple needs to hold on and this 140 level is very important for apple, but i think if the environment is one where there's some question about growth, and yes, there's been fear about inflation, but if anything, some of these big-cap tech companies are not caught in the same inflationary crosshairs, i don't think you want to get too far
at --a earp away from the trade. i still think energy and resources are still positions to do very well next year this week the dollar was as much of the story as anything, but you have supply constraints, and you have demand di234578icss -- dynamics so as stocks to own, not just trades to be in, i think you could not be running away from some of names, but it's a change in the character of the way these businesses are run at a time when we do have inflation let's get to one bright spot in today's market. the stock is netflix, hitting new all-time highs wall street continues to cheer the company's move into gaming we talked about this last night, but the run continues, bonawy,
and what's the take on some of these other players. >> i'm not sure. it's diversifying from the core business, but i think netflix is pretty ubiquitous, consumption of media, right? i think that's the story here. for me, in terms of that general space, despite recent weakness, i still like penn and dr draftkings that packs in what is new and what has room to run i think they are in prime situations in a relatively new market. the same that we have seen in the net fflixs of the world, i just want the five up, five
down, three up/three down scenario i don't think i get that with netflix. >> i think this is genius. you're always looking to say, where are they going to grow i think the streaming and gaming is absolutely going to be a home run. they have steadily moved closer and closer into that space i think it's an unbelievably smart move we continue to see -- stock was trading 529 not that terribly long ago, and we have started to see a steady flow of buyers, buyers, buyers in the options world, looking for that beta kind of move just this week, mel, we had three separate buyers of unusual options in netflix it tells me people are still not tired, they still continue to believe in the story and the expansion into the gaming space.
i'm one of those believers i own calls to the up side netflix right now. let's get more on this we'll bring in michael prachter of wedbush. >> you have the quote, probably, of the day, and that is the purchase of nightschool studios is analogous to one of the broadcast networks buying the badminton channel. so you don't think it's a big deal or you're a huge off and on of badminton which is it? >> i'm a fan of badminton. pete said it well. reed hastings made a comment probably two years ago his biggest competitor was fortnite, and he's right if we roll back, we watched five hours of tv a day, and nobody to the about it now we're watching two hours a
day and playing games three. i think reed hastings is addressing the video shift, and i think getting into this business is a really, really smart move i'm totally skeptical they will succeed, but i was skeptical when they succeedwood their original content it took them ten years, but they're actually pretty good at it i think pete is right, this is an area they'll have to be in. i had to look up night school studios. i know you know this, but i know everything about video games if i haven't heard about them -- that's not 9 move you want to see them make. you want to see them buy warner bros. interactive, and you want to see them license all the warner bros. content that's the kind of thing they really have to do. >> did they buy a studio to make
content? did they buy a studio? >> you know, that would be a really dumb idea, but it's possible. >> i'm asking you, did they? i'm asking that sort of knowing the answer, which is no, because they're good at it, they got good at it on their own. s >> we're seeing a lot of crossover. you saw what disney did with marvel universe, and i think netflix would like to see there some day, but they're not there. you don't start with a video game studio. that's why i said warner bros. makes much, much more sense. you can name on the fingers of one hand mortal com bad, lara
croft, and those -- it's not the entity that is going to pull this off disney has tried three times and failed i think this is an audacious move on netflix's part, but i agree with pete. they need to pursue this it's a question of whether they can execute. >> my question is forgets the badminton channel, but who is the name that matters? and white house buying it? how about ea sports? and how about activision and taketwo, some of these companies that really are monsters, and valuations aren't terrible, at least relative to where they've been are they in play at this point are they too big >> full disclosure, i have a man crush on tim seymour >> wow
>> the demographics of the gaming industry are so favorable. they're set up in the 2020s the way health care was set up in the 1960s with medicare, where we had an aging population consuming more and more of the product. that's what we have with video games. add to that the tech shift and the guy it is who own ip and know how to turn it into games will win the one i would hold back on is nintendo they seem stuck with the old business model yes, you're talking about my single-digit top line growth in the next 15 years, and probably 15%-ish earnings growth. you want to be in the sector the one thing that people have missed is this apple/epic lawsuit is massively op beneficial to developers
judge rogers said you are not allowed to stop them from diverting traffic to another store. ultimately somebody, and i think that's unity, will build a store as a game module as part of the design, and companies will offer their items in their own store alongside the apple store. you will see that 30% margin wither down to at most 20, probably as low as 5 so i think the economics are massive. activision is the biggest of the greatest publishering in mobile. >> michael, great to see with you. a self-professioned man crush on tim seymour. i think that makes the end of the year real on "fast money." guy, where do you want to take this
what i thought was interesting, aside from the man crush, the mobile gaming aspect that's not often something we talk about in the context of an activision or ea >> first, michael, take a number two, it's refreshing he's been pretty outspoken for years with netflix, and now he acknowledged that they surprised him. to a certain extend that is what we do as well. i'll stay with netflix, though in terms of the not going big into gaming, i think that's smart. they're dipping their together into something to see how it works out. reed hastings, to me, i've said it a hundred times, the most underrated ceo in the country. i think they report on october 19th
i think they could surprise everybody. >> pete? >> i am no pro in that world at all, but i think ea and activision but i appreciate what michael was saying its about eyeballs, and you were asking tim a question earlier. it made me think, you were talking about what would you buy if things went to the south? i would say i would like to answer that. you know, disney, i've been against disney for a long time, it was way overpriced. i think based on that, near the 170 level, i think this is a name if the s&p goes toward 4100, i think that name will go a lot lower, and the multiple suddenly looks like something more acceptable. they jumped into streaming, they were late getting there, but once they got there, they have absolutely excused i think that's what netflix will
do with gaming coming up, a huge call on bitcoin, our next guest saying the cryptocurrency will hit a boom by the end of the year. supply chain issues hit the retailers, and you don't want to miss a bonus hour of "fast money" at the top of the hour. don't go anywhere. we have a lot more coming your way.
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welcome back shares of bed bath & beyond plummeting, after the company said it saw a steep dropoff. yes, flags major supply chain complications. pete, it was a bad day for retail overall, but particularly for bed bath & beyond. >> yeah, they got absolutely hammered, no doubt it's very much near the absolute lows this is a stock that for a long time has been trading part of that meme, rebel stock kind of world. people have been able to manipulate around with that, but when they delivered the numbers
they delivered, that was absolutely terrible. the stock reflected that by what you saw today, down 20-plus percent to the down side i do think, though, mel, at this level rather than being in the 50s, and now toward the teens, it's at a level that it starts to get interesting i'm actually considering this, getting involved in this name down at these levels, thinking the supply chain will start to improve and won't miss like they did so badly this time, this is a company where i may want to put on some upside calls it's trading in the mid teens. full fundamentally the company is relatively decent, but it does have an opportunity for a squeeze. i'm going to be looking at it close. we're just getting started here at "fast money. here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: a huge crypto call, our next guest saying
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hit $100,000 by the end of the year always great to see you. >> i'm your resident bitcoin bull >> how did we get to 100k by the end of the year? >> you've got to bring the receipts, so here are the receipts if we look at what's happened the last six months we saw a lot of risks coming off the table. now we're hearing rumblings around bitcoin approval, but there's a lot of rumors. that's a big catalyst. there's also not a lot of open lungs in the position anymore. in fact number six figures that
are seeing some action going into the end of q4 and early q1. honestly there's a lot of cash siding on the sidelines and a lot of investors are seriously contemplating it, and there's so many different avenues to do that, whether it's through a publicly listed investment vehicle or through assets themselves on platforms like coinbase, robinhood or square. there's a plethora of options to open up the channel. >> a quick question about some of the regulatory overhang and some of the space, particularly what we have seen out of china does that change your outlook at all? can you kind of make investors a bit more comfortable in terms of how they would abate those risks? >> absolutely. i think china has banned bitcoin
i think 13 times it's obviously concerned about outflows in the context of what's happening in china. in the macro scheme, we have seen a shift away from china since as early as march, we've seen a shift in trading activities favors u.s. and western europe trading, whereas most of the bitcoin used to trade during asian hours that's shifted it used to be the pair or the tether usd dollar would trade pair with bitcoin, that has shifted. it's a sign there's more of a participation in the formal bitcoin market is happening through regulated institutions that are accessing the asset class here in the u.s. as well as in europe so, again, we look at the market, look at the maturity of
the impact on the china side, because then on the mining side, a lot of that has shifted to iceland, kazakhstan, the u.s. as well if we look at microstructure, that activity had already shifted more to europe and the u.s. from a market impact perspective, from a trading perspective, the china narrative has had much of an impact. >> one of the tent poles is that inflation is not transitory. that's something we talk about a lot on this show what if the fed is right and inflation is transitory? how much of a tent pole is that to your thesis >> at the end of the day, volatility is in all markets, not just bitcoin one of the biggest stories is a relative volatility story. one of the biggest challenges that they have historically is the perceived volatility as we saw markets in the last 18
months, volatility in all asset classes, things like treasuries, which historically have not been volume tiff, seem volume tiff. investors are getting much more comfortable with the volume activity of bitcoin. as they look at opportunities, across the board there's a lot of inflation in asset prices themselves it's not just telling equities in particular, but also real estate it's, you know, commodities. it's all sorts of assets seeing rapid price inflation, and, again, i think cryptocurrencies are no longer a sideshow, but the main show. >> just quickly, who is to say it's not inflated here if there is no alternative, and there's money and people want to allocate something that will give them used, why isn't the move just simply an inflation of
this class >> it has the scarcity property that many other assets don't, and when it kem to demand for bitcoin, it has a dramatic impact on price. that supply is taken off the market that can have dramatic impact. you can see -- i think we can't understate how important the supply constraint is in terms of the ability to have dramatic pricing fluctuation. we're always optimistic. >> thank you always good to see you. >> thank you for having me. tim seymour, buyi ing 100k >> at some point i think the s.e.c. is friend here, and i think you regulate
this environment, which is ultimately what they want. they want to protect investors, you'll see this move higher. what's fascinating about the inflation environment, i'm not sure many people can happen, what happened to gold? did bitcoin steal the thunder from gold? i don't think so i don't think you've seen institutional adoption, but it's fascinating the argument why bitcoin could be the great diversives in a time of monetary debasing, gold han done nothing. it's down 10% by summer. it's fascinating guy, just quickly, what happened to gold? >> hard to argue with that without question, to a large extent, now that they're close to probably 1.6 trillion into crypto, that money may have found its way into gold.
it's hard for me to argue anything that tim said i remain a believer, but it's hard to do so at these prices. bitcoin was as big topic at delivering alpha this year there's a warning from citi to tell investor to stay away from some top names. pete is taking a mound to pitch a bank stock tus.ston" when "fa mey rern hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business, you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smartphone.
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welcome back to "fast money. check out this mystery stock that's up almost 30% on the year are there even more gains ahead for this high flyer? pete najarian says bank on it. pete, take it away. >> all right, mel. i'm going to give you u.s. bank. i like this company a lot. it's a local bank in minnesota, at least started out there, and andrew has been amazing with this company he's the leader, ceo, pretty much everything and has had a lot of different roles there i love his aggressiveness. he has been absolutely on a tear
making acquisitions s. not just in fin tech, but trying to get market share he just recently, within the last week or so, had a huge buyout in california, mitsubishi group. that was a nice shot right there, where they'll have that much more exposure on the west coast. then when you look at the fundamentals side, it trades about a price to book around two, a bit less. that's been about average. this company has done so many things right, mel, fundamentally you look at the chart and say, wow, that stock is stretched, about you it really isn't. this is a company that i think really still fundamentally can stand up lastly, when you look at growth, they've been very, very conservative loan growth, they do high quality. that's very, very important to me their dividend yield is now 3%, but they've been adding the
different up at about a pace of 11%. so for all these different reasons, i think they're doing the right things, rather than buying back as much stock as they were, they've been buying companies to get that much more exposure it trades cheap, still, but i think it can go higher. >> where are they headquartered? >> somewhere in minneapolis, i believe. >> that was rhetorical. >> yes, i know. you have a real question for pete. >> i think personally the rates are going higher think higher rates works for them in a business model, much mover so than some of these other bankses. does that make sense >> i totally agree with you, guy. they have always been very conservative, but i think that's paid off for them. i would absolutely agree with you.
i think they're doing everything in a quality why that's why this bank i think really does stand out. time to vote, are you buying pete's pitch tim seymour, what do you say >> i have a new whiteboard, by the way, hand delivered. happy to say i didn't let you down i love pete's -- the u.s. bank story, first of all, the union bank acquisition, even with the consent order hanging over it, the california consolidation and growth there, the valuation is very cheap i like the extort. i like pete. i would like to buy this one. >> bonawyn, what do you want >> i'm buying the bank there was another bank that was could have been -- conservaconse jpmorgan my, how hindsight is 2020. >> i wrote this prior to the diatribe can you read my smart board, please >> this minnesota-based company
hold the second oldest bank charter. >> i played jeopardy there a bit. you sold a bit of my thunder i'm with pedro go back and look at when it made the all-time high, coincided with yields going higher yields going higher will be great for usb. well done, pete. it's your turn to vote are you buying pete's fast pitch. vote in the twitter poll we'll reveal the results later. citi with a warning sign to steer clear of some -- and where you can find better value. "fast money" is back in two. ♪ ♪
>> i'm certainly not butting against alphabet i can understand the bullish case for amazon, but it's heart to -- when i'm looking at margin of error and it's 3% to a% and i'm looking to set up a short, i need more meat on the bone for me to take the risk requisite to establish that short position. that's the caveat that makes me have a bit of pause with the view there >> it's interesting, too, because effectively, guy, they're saying move away from the names largely considered as value when theoretically interest rates are headed higher. >> it's -- they threw pinterest in there as well i'm not certain why, but i'm with bonawyn on this one i think you flee from google at year own parity. in temples of a business model, it's hard to argue against it.
amazon i understand. facebook brings with it its own set of problems, a lot of it facebook-induced for the seemingly hundredth time, if esg investing sort of captures facebook sustains or investors' attention against facebook, that's it. the party is over. it hasn't happened yet, but the stock is definitely trading that way. >> pete, are you with you citi on this? >> i don't agree i think we have seen time and time and time again how it's been so teflon it's a favorite name i continue to hold it. i'm not shaken out i still love the fundamental story. we talk about eyeballs aural time look at the different verticals that facebook has. they're consequence taply -- somebody is always after them, mel, usually it's their own fault, and yet the stock continues to the up side i'm probably eyeing an
opportunity to maybe re-add to the position. >> karen wag doing that, too there were instagram hearings on capitol hill today, tim, and the stock was flat >> look, these hearings are a folly. the senators asking questions are probably still using dial-up or getting faxes, i don't know the issue with facebook and the social issues on the social network are things that i think are ultimately the problem with the valuation and why it trades cheap. let's talk about amazon. i totally agree with citi. the stock has been an underperformer, because the comps were so tough. guess what the comps are about to get a lot easier e-commerce growth, which is at the front of the line so far, look, amazon is also growing into that valuation. i realize it's not cheap stock,
but relative to itself and their ability to turn the levers, aws is still an enorm outs growth engine amazon has done nothing 2350 year if this market will move higher, amazon is going to take it. >> and you've always said don't bet against the u.s. consumer. here we are. >> i'm with tim on that one. amazon is growing into it. i mean, listen, it's amazon's woshlt and we just happen to live in it to pete's point, i 100% get it my only concern with facebook is people start talking with their pocketbooks in terms of investing in esg dollars and forcing people out of name we saw it in big tobacco years ago. i put facebook right there in terms of the opposite of benefits that facebook creates. coming up, options traders
have this trade next, and go vote on our twitter poll we've got the results after this "fast money" is back in two. protect your pet this flea and tick season with chewy. find everything from flea collars and sprays, to prescriptions that keep pests away. chewy has what you need to keep tails wagging and pets itch free all season long. shop pet prescriptions and more at chewy.com today.
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welcome back to "fast money. this stock is rallies 10% in just the last metropolitan and one whale is betting that the breakout is continues. mike khouw has the details >> well above average call volume, the most active were the october 105 strike calls buyers are risking about 0.8% on a bet that the stock rally could continue above 8% in the course of the next two weeks or so when those calls expire >> yeah. pete, did you see this activity? >> i did, mel. i'll tell you what energy has been on fire. anybody in the options world has seen for the many -- you could
almost go back a year and it's been absolutely on fire. there's been a pause here and there, but generally all to the up side. i am loaded up with energy it's by far my biggest sector position right now i don't own these calls right now, mike. i should have jumped in. i haven't done it yet. >> tim, i'm wondering, we talked to paul sankey earlier this week, and talking about under-investment in natural gas, and i wonder if that's a shift you would consider in your portfolio? >> look, for sure. there's two our three other themes involved here you have the inflation dynamic you have some of these companies having given back to investors by the way, mel, 100 bucks if you can tell me who phil cheniers. >> can you narrow it down? >> sports figure
very solid pro career with the washington bullets, now wizards, of course. sorry about that okay bonawyn, back to energy, what names do you like? >> who is paul chenier sorry. phil, i mentioned it in a few previous shows, some of the international names look attractive i think it's from a more technical standpoint tim talked about returning cash to shareholders. i think that's a theme that will be common across border. anytime i see an over-inflated dividend, those are the types of not only div yield, but when you analyze the type of dividend in the short term interim, it makes things pretty attractive. >> you want to pile on, too?
>> no, i was going to say, tim, you should by ashamed of yourself mel completely discounted him, because clyde owned him in the '70s why would she know phil when she's a huge clyde fan just saying. there you go, mel. back to you. >> mike khouw, thank you. opportunity into the full show tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. eastern time well, pete had a beautiful fast pitch before, minneapolis-based company. it's time to find out if you were buying his pitch. wow, this is first in a while. yes, the viewers agree with you. 5 1% are buying your pitch i wonder if we let the poll roll on, like another 30 minutes, what the outcome would be. >> they would turn on me, mel. >> let's say rates go lower, the
sentiment on banks go sour bonawyn, would you change your mind >> no, i don't think rates can go much lower. that's kinds of been the argument for those who have said, wait a minute, we're talking about the velocity of the move and take a step back. whether it's from 120, to 130, to 155, that's still very low. so no. let's go to the final trade. pete, what do you say? >> coty, beauty products, tim? >> eog, those that are also giving cash back to investors, with an $80 oil price, that's now where analyze have it. it moves higher. >> all right
bonawyn? >> i do expect it to outperform in the short term, xlf >> guy >> shoutout to bill, the morristown low, never misses a "fast money." bonus hour of "fast money" is coming up next. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim web. because platforms this innovative, aren't just made for traders - they're made by them.
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i'll melissa lee and jim is off tonight but we have a bonus hour of "fast money." tonight's lineup so let's get right to it we start off with the biggest stock story of the day shares of bed bath and beyond plunging 22% and a steep drop off in store traffic and sounding the alarm on supply chain issues and rising inflation. bed bath and beyond shares falling to the lowest level in exactly one year
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