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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 30, 2021 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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i'll melissa lee and jim is off tonight but we have a bonus hour of "fast money." tonight's lineup so let's get right to it we start off with the biggest stock story of the day shares of bed bath and beyond plunging 22% and a steep drop off in store traffic and sounding the alarm on supply chain issues and rising inflation. bed bath and beyond shares falling to the lowest level in exactly one year
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so is it time to ring the register on this one and more broadly, guy, have we reached a point where we've got to say the whole sector is going to face the problems and maybe we're in for revisions lower >> well, if you're ringing the register now, it is an if hor to be here in jim's time spot if you ring in a register now for you old timers like myself, you get no sale. we're talking about a stock at a 52-week low. so you're late to the dance. i still think it has further room to the downside this quarter in a word was a disaster i mean, the eps came in well, well beyond -- below what the street was looking for revenues half of what the street was looking for. the sales growth was negative number just there is nothing to like about this now is it carrying over, if you look at kohl's, go back and listen to what fedex said and that will make it its way into
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retailers without question. >> and last hour and pete and bono was making a point that maybe we should look at this because of how far it has fallen can you wrap your head around that tactic? >> i can and i think pete's point was about using options as a strategy to get some exposure and if, if, i say that a third time, if you are going to start to dabble, it would be an option because that allows you to define your risk i think i'm kind of summarizing what pete's point was. with that said, i really don't think there is much to like. down 20% plus. we speak a lot about the buy fur aks in the technology sector or the growth sector. i think we're seeing that same type of dynamic in the value sector every reopening trade isn't going to do well even after the delta variant, it is gone. there is new norms and we saw it even going into the whole covid crisis those that rely on the same-store sales as defined by
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foot traffic in physical locations are going to suffer more than those with an online presence couple that withthe frothiness that we've seen in the housing market and people's willingness to buy more, this is quite a durable good but to buy more goods rather than services, i think you need to wrap your mind around that dynamic, reversing a little bit and i think this point is squarely to that. >> and analysts on the calls, they usually say congratulations to the management team and three analysts on this call this morning said good luck good luck to you on the fourth quarter. that is not a good sign in general. because analysts typically like to look on the bright side of things but here we are acknowledging the challenges that this company faces. >> good luck on the fourth quarter. and by the way, these comps should be good for them. if you think about the annualized comps, the sequential
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comps, but year-over-year should be good. i don't know if guy is stocked on potpourri and scented candles and worried about a sales letdown. what is your bigger issue with bed bath and beyond. is it that there are supply chain issues and labor input costs and that their higher prices or the big issue with this company, why it is a broken company before covid was the amazoning of its business. an a lot of companies have learned how to operate in an amazon order and compete and actually go dtc and have their own digital presence i think that is a bigger question for best buy -- >> bed bath. >> i'm not too worried about supply chain i think you have the case here. >> i have a question here. because for all of you "fast money" viewers who tuned in last night, we talked about dollar tree we led the show with dollar tree raising their prices from $1 to
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$1.25 and $1.50 because of inflation. and here we are with a very different story. what is the difference between bed i bed imagine and beyond and a doll ear tree. why will they have more difficulty. >> you could buy a jar of sauce at bed, bath and beyond. but i'll answer your question intelligently. this is manifesting itself into different ways at dollar tree, they could probably raise prices and get away with it they were rewarded for that. and bad bath and beyond in just a different situation and because tim said it, i did stockpile the candles but i did it with henry rendell and i probably have a gross of them in the basement so there, tim. >> probably all of the gardenia
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and jasmine variety is my guess. you seem like that kind of guy so tim seymour, we saw the retail sector trade lower and for kohl's and footlocker those are story specific reasons because they got drown grades but in terms of a macy's, should we just expect that supply chain disruptions will royal the entire industry and that we should be prepared for shortfalls >> and macy's and to a lesser extent nordstrom have not priced this so i think throughout retail, through some of the specialty retail, you've definitely seen a lot of this priced in. macy's was up 350% even after today's move, year-over-year, it is a turnaround story and a balance sheet recovery story and a digital carve out your space story. the news today from macy's was that their suing amazon too get
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a billboard off their harold square store but the story was about kohl's and if you think about what department stores are facing and think about all of three names and i mean nordstrom, macy's and kohl's, where were these stocks a year ago and the same question i would throw at the bed bath and beyond folks. do you believe the businesses have changed their trajectory, and because they haven't priced in a whole lot of supply disruption i do think others have but investors after a huge run in some of the names have to wonder where is the multiple now. >> and so bono, the question is are there retailers like a macy's or kohl's, the department stores, the mall operators that you would say, they have changed their business because of covid, they have gone more online and i'm willing to put money into the stock today. >> the short answer is no.
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honestly, i'm not very constructive of that entire space and have not been for sh some time. dy have an aside on the question about dollar tree and it is about basis for me dollar tree, if your average say sticking with the namesake, the average price of the prood products are $1. and you raise it to $1.25 that is a 25% increase and that doesn't translate to the retailers that we're talking about. at some point it is that simple. but going back to your question, no, i think the whole mall situation, i've been reading about some suburban situations where they're converting those spaces into storage or distribution centers so, no, i think you are completely seeing the landscape change there. >> we've got some breaking news here on lordstown motors phil lebeau has the story. >> this was reported today by the "wall street journal" and it has become official. an announcement by fox con
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and lordstown motors and fox con for $230 million will buy most of the lordstown motor final assembly plant in lordstown, ohio there are parts of it including the motor hub facility, some of the other areas within the is assembly plant that will remain but for the most part fox con will become the owner and operator of this plan. it will work with lordstown motors to be the contract manufacture for the pickup truck, the model they're trying to build and hopefully they hope that they could deliver it by the end of year. if not early next year in fact i think they moved it into early next year the significance here that this lordstown motors, a., with a cash infusion, and b., some
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certainty, for fox con, this is a great deal you're getting a final assembly plant, it is the old gm plant is it is not like you're building it up from the ground up and wait however long it might take for the facility to be built you have a plant that is ready to go. that means contract manufacturing is ready to go relatively quickly and as part of that, who is one of the companies that has already reached an agreement with fox con to have its vehicles manufactured by fox con here in the united states? fisker and you could bet fisker will be doing this in fact, we'll be talking with henry fisker the ceo of fisker tomorrow morning on "squawk box" at about what this means for fisker's plans to have a vehicle manufactured in the united states and perhaps that means it will be out on the road a little bit quicker. not all of plant, but a good chunk of it and being a contract manufacturer for lordstown motors and also taking a stake
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in lordstown motors. melissa, back to you. >> i have a couple of questions. >> sure. >> fox con taking a stake in lordstown, does that jeopardize any of the other relationships it plight have with being contract manufacturer for other electric vehicles. you mentioned fisker so i don't know if you think there is a problem. >> i don't think it does. >> if there is a stake in a competitor. >> no, i don't think it does contract manufacturers are by their nature, when you look at somebody like magna, which builds a number of vehicles for a number of different automakers at its plant in europe, that is the way it is with contract manufacturers. you make the agreement with that company that you've got the final assembly plant, we need you to build a vehicle let's have a one-on-one relationship even if the vehicle being built may be competitive with another one where fox con has a relationship with a particular automaker. at the end of the day, if you
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are fox concon, you want them to come to you and use you as a contract manufacturer. so they have that facility and fisker is one of those clients and lordstown motors will be another client. >> so is lordstown now basically an ip company with a small stake ina manufacturing facility >> they do have some manufacturing capabilities there. the electric motor hubs, that is not part of this agreement they're not selling that nor the facilities that build those electric motor hubs. that is not being sold over to fox con. so they do have some assets aside from the ip. but they needed this, melissa. these guys were dying on the vine and everybody knew it and they needed to do something in order to get the cash infusion and to give them shot at getting endurance out on the road. >> phil, thanks so much for joining us it looks like a life line, tim, do you think it really is. >> you need a much longer rope and you need a lot more cash they just announced that they've got about $240 million of cash
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in their balance sheet, down from where they expected, they have sg and a updated to $120 million this is a company that when we were chronicling this demize months back was using words like concern of being a going entity. so, right, ip and technology are things that have a lot of volume and maybe that is the best way and contract production is certainly a way to keep your cost base down and the only way they could do it but i would be running far from this one this to me is optionality for fox con. i get why they're there in the investor of equity you don't get why your there lordstown up about 11% after the news congress demanding answers today and the details and fallout ahead. and we're closing the books with choose your own adventure. the chart master is laying out
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five different paths and find out which eson our traders will take we're back right after this. growing up in a little red house, on the edge of a forest in norway, there were three things my family encouraged: kindness, honesty and hard work. over time, i've come to add a fourth: be curious. be curious about the world around us, and then go. go with an open heart, and you will find inspiration anew. viking. exploring the world in comfort.
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welcome back to the special edition of "fast money." we're following a developing story on facebook. the company on the defensive again today over its instagram app. let's get to julia boorstin with the details. >> the senate subcommittee on consumer protection grilled facebook global head of safety she defends facebook's intention to help users connect while under attack for knowing about instagram's toxic impact on teens and failing to act on it a tax came from both sides of the aisle. ed markey compared social media to big tobacco. >> it is just like big tobacco, pushing a product that me know is unhealthy and all to facebook
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could make money i g stands for instagram but it also stands for insta greed. he was pressed for details on the plan to move forward for instagram for kids which she didn't share davis said that the research that facebook has drawn scrutiny for had no bombshell revelations in that they use this type of research to improve the company's products the committee will continue to pursue this topic on tuesday with a hearing with the whistle-blower behind the leaked reports. >> thank you, julia. that is quite a sound bite ig stands for instagram, it also stands for insta greed stock was flat today guy? >> i'm curious as to how many people got a room to come up with that one. they're brill lentz. clearly mr. marquee watched "fast money" a number of times over the last six to nine months because it is everything we've been saying.
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yes, it was flat today but it has gotten obliterated over the last few weeks. i think that is pretty clear in terms of the stock i'll say this again, and i've said this on 5:00 show now that we're on the 6:00 show, i'll say it for this audience, there is nothing i like about facebook. i find everything about it just to be reprehensible is the word i choose to use, what i have said and i'll say again, this falls under the auspices of asg investing and it is game over because they could bring these folks up to capitol hill and testify and it has no bearing but if people start not paying with their checkbooks and their investment accounts, it is a real problem for facebook to get out from under this. this is big tobacco however many years ago. >> was that just a sensational sort of headline for mr. marquee to send home, that this is big tobacco. >> i want to make sure that i
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pay respects to mental health and understand that it is a very serious situation. it should be taken seriously so all jokes aside, the sound bite is hilarious, but i want to make sure that we keep that front and center comparing it to big tobacco i think is a bit of a stretch. now we're talking about consuming a good that you know has been linked to cancer and all other types of health issues i don't think facebook will kill you in and of its own right. i understand there is corollary between depression and comparing one self-to others, but ultimately i do think that, yes, facebook owns some of the responsibility here. and they have been somewhat im imperus to all of the capitol hill attacks and it seems like they walk away unscathed each and every time bup as the consumer, you doo own some responsibility of how you determine to spend your time you don't have to be on it it is addicting but again all of those studies are a bit less
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inconclusive than a physical consumable good that is leading to death directly. i don' i don't think see that exact same causal link with facebook. >> the link is more tenuous, tim. at the same time, that doesn't prevent congress frommen -- from enacting regulations it doesn't stop facebook from saying we're going to pull back on instagram, we're going to do it of our own accord because of the regulatory scrutiny and that tangentially slowed down its growth. >> yeah. and look the metaphor from mr. marquee is one why there is different ways to phrase this. i prefer to say data is the new oil. so 15 years ago, the most important strategic asset in our country was oil. now it is data it is your data and facebook's
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ability to do the right thing with it, i think is the bigger issue and i think there is a trust issue. but the trust around facebook coming up in the last three weeks and saying, oh, we've just learned that this has effects or whatever they say. guy, that is a big word. but i think you've got a case here where the most important dynamic is facebook, the stock for a lot of folks watching this show that stock has outperformed the triple q's or the peer group in mega cap tech by 10% this year and i think if you look at it on the charts, a lot of people would love to see this stock break 330 and get down to where i think it will absolutely hold barring a major change in a dismantling at 300 so i think it gets to aplace, and guy pointed this out, he hates the company and the stock is a different story and i think that is where you get. i think facebook will continue to trade at a massive discount to its peer group. but at some point look at the
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second quarter numbers average price per ad was up 47%. revenue growth up 56%. these are monster numbers for not a small company. >> dill tearus, five silla bulls, by the way. >>ly use it in a haiku. >> the chart master is laying out the five differents on where the markets will finish the year find out which path our traders are taking and rates on the rise and that could have a major impact on your mortgage. we'll break down the impact when a special edition of "fast money" returns
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welcome back to the special edition of "fast money." as we close the books on q3 it is time to map out the rest of the year the chart master has five did different scenes on where the
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s&p 500 will end the year. carter worth, kick it off. >> you bet so this is called choose your own adventure, the fifth annual survey by three different firms and it is simply modelled after the children series from 1970s that was rejected by hundreds of publishers and ended up being one of the best selling in all children's history in multiple languages. let's look at the scenario first chart. this is a chart of the s&p 500 as it stands right now and respondents were given a choice of five scenarios now we go to the next chart and it is odyssey number one and what this calls for is essentially a little bit of weakness here in october and then off to the races essentially in november and december and ending at 4900 now the truth is this is already out of the window because we have more than this. look at odyssey number two a popular pick about 400 respondents. this calls for weakness in
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october but then a strong rebound in november and a good strong seasonal december around 4700 a popular choice and the third, and this is out, odyssey number three, where we're kind of flattish, we eke out slight new gains but december is not that good. we end up a little bit higher than where we are now. there is no swoon in that scenario so this is already not the trajectory the market is likely to travel odyssey number four, now take a look this is the seasonal weakness. and to some extent we're seeing this now that swoon is down to 3,700 and we don't ever recover and we end the year 403,900 and the fifth and also popular choice was that we do have a seasonal swoon, which we're seeing now but that we get a seasonal recovery in december off to a very strong month and we climb back and undo a lot of
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the damage that we've seen in the october period >> so carter, i know the game is choose your own adventure and to pick where the s&p 500 will end the year, but within this is there a linchpin sector in performance that in your view governs which path is more likely >> well, of course, it is just by virtue of the waiting and the supercap growth, as you get more meaningful selling in apple and microsoft, and google and amazon and facebook and so forth, and that takes the market down and my own hunch is if we stop at the moving average, which is 3% from here. >> carter, thank you carter braxton worth it is time now for the traders to choose their own adventure. so guy, which odyssey speaks to you? >> well i truly hope i did this correctly, mel
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i had the information and i had the instructions in my ear i did 05 and that's because i didn't know how to spell odyssey. i anticipated the s&p 500 down to 4100 to rally back in the back half of the year. so that would be my selection. >> and bonawyn, how about you? >> well, i too, will -- one of us didn't do it right. so 21.1% is where i'm at do you think that there is a bit more volatility rather than it being straight up and to the right. >> okay. so bonawyn choose odyssey number three. there is a lot to follow along here with the five i know it is tough tim seymour, what do you say >> well, i did it right. i choose space odyssey number three. and i'm a good -- but bonawyn hit the right number which is
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21.1% which is effectively where we were before we just started this sell-off. i think we'll probably trade down to 4,200 and then i think we'll rally back about 7%. it will feel good by the end of the year and i think we have big problems in the first quarter but i think we'll get back to the old highs and stall and i think we have a little bit more to go to the down side. >> okay. coming up, diamonds in a rough, stocks down double-digit and are any of them worth a second look. find out ahead and later the return of a the mc we have the delicious details when we come right back. we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. at emerson, our cold chain software and technology keep perishable food at proper temperatures,
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welcome back to "fast money.
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with a third quarter in the books we thought it would be a great time to go bargain hunting so we found four stocks to find if any are worth a second look we kick things off with wynn down more than 30% in the third quarter. would you trade this or fade this >> i like this game. this is a "fast money" game. would you trade it and i'm going to trade correctly and one of the reasons is because of the sell-off has been remarkable from 134 down to current levels, held the october lows but i harken people balk to september 24th, jim cramer who occupies this time zone had matt maddox on the ceo and he assuaged some of the concerns. china is a big deal but not to the extent that people are making it out to be. i think it is too cheap. would you trade it. >> and bonawyn, what say you. >> i'm also trading this one it is bouncing off the 80 level which is where it based back in november or december before it bounced up to 90
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this market i'm kind of looking for laggards and this fits squarely into some of the names that we're seeing in the retail space as well as there is less foot traffic around the delta variant. i'm looking for names where i could have a bargain without over paying in terms of valuation where i see upside so i'm dipping my toes in here. >> let's get to fedex down to 26% in the third quarter tim? >> i'm a buyer here. i'm going to trade this to play this game correctly. and i think the story on fedex, while there is cyclicality ahead that may trouble the macro around this company, i think this is a bottom up story. think fedex is underearning and that is something that could concern people more than the top down pressure. but i think they'll get this right. i think they've had a rocky eight quarters or so where management has at times disappointed, especially on the margin and again if they got to the same margin that ups was operating at, instead of being
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at 24, 25, $26 a share, they would be closer to $35 a share the company is cheap and that is never been a reason to buy it. but do you think this is a company that is under earning and could get back to a higher multiple even if they don't get back to where ups trades i like it. >> guy, how about it. >> trade it. ten multiple is too cheap given where it is in terms of the market and historically where it trades in terms of the own multiple i think the sell-off, i didn't anticipate because you "fast money" fans know that i power pitched it a while back at 294 that being said i think in the 220s it is too cheap. >> and finally to zoom before we get to the trade we've got some news on zoom. it is merger with 59 is off. shareholders did not approve it. that news just crossing here zoom is up slightly after hours. 59 is down back to the trade on zoom for the q3, the stock is down 32%. so bonawyn, what do you do with
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this >> i'm fading this one and i know it is been a darling during covid, but you can't fight the trend here i do think there the rsi is approaching an over sold level but we're looking at ways to deploy capital and with the whole inflation story, these are the time type of names that are fairly in the sights once it gets over sold i'll look for calls to get a little more exposure. >> tim >> sales multiple makes no sense. i'm a fader as well. i think you have a case here, despite the fact that they've created new vernacular in our world, and i'm zooming this and that, the ability to broaden the platform and hold engagement and actually ultimately increase the revenue per user is very difficult right now. even though they've grown their enterprise business. competing with microsoft, not going to be easy with anybody and teams have stepped forward as well. but this is a multiple issue
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difficult comps and no, i'm a fader. >> all right coming up, we're tackling your questions to tweet us at cnbc fast money back right after this.
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welcome back to the special edition of "fast money." time to take some of your questions. first up, kit in colorado. >> hey, this is kit i'm asking about micron so on tuesday they released the latest earnings reporting beating expectations across the board. despite this the stock has fallen since and trading around
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$72. this down from a 52-week high of about $97 back in april. we're seeing price targets of 100, 110, 120, so what is depressing the stock right now and could it be a good value buy. thank you. >> guy, what do you tell kit >> i think it is $70, it is a good buy what is depressing the stock, the market get ahead of itself and the commodity that we've seen before in terms of nan and d ram. the fact that the stock didn't get smoked today on the back of the release and is a good sign and i know you know this, kit, at one point the stock was positive so i think the $70 level is value. i don't know if it is getting to 110, but i think it could challenge 100, 90. >> agree from a standpoint that 70 goldma dollars level is on your side.
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the crossing to the 200 does no sket well with me. >> our next question from riley in georgia >> thank you for taking my question with parks reopening and movies coming back to theaters do you think disney would be a buy, hold or sell for the long-term again, thank you again for taking my question >> tim, what do you tell our friend in georgia? >> our friend in georgia, very polite young man reilly, i tell you think i disney, these guys talked about the last stock, i want to see disney hold this 165 bevel but the comments about the fourth quarter were certainly disappointing. also slower rolled out of star plus in latin america and some dynamics there reopening of mark parks and movies are great but the fact that this company split itself into divisions that are more
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representative of the current business, so content and distribution i think is a positive i think the story for disney right now is you are going to see some recovery in the subs. i think you priced a lot of bad news in. i'm long the stock full disclosure but on the charts this thing does need to hold these levels >> tim is right. it is got to hold here you saw sort of the one of the first little flaws in the disney plus story when the stock was punished on the back of it but it is finding support at these levels i have insider information, i'm using that term that they are bringing back mr. toad's wild ride i like it at these levels, i think could rally. >> bonawyn, do you like disney in. >> i like disney the other two panelists spoke to the fundamentalist story and that sets up well but you could draw a straight line from d's to now at that 155 to 155
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that channel there, we've all said it, that is the line in the sand and you're trading based off of momentum right now. it is not a question that is one of the most compelling trend lines i've seen in a long time >> let's get to our final viewer question for tonight >> team frank here from pennsylvania and i just had a question about tesla. we have the delivery numbers coming out next week berlin is going to get approval soon the stock is trading up near the 800 level so i think that it could break out to that 900 all-time high next week with those extra catalyst of delivery numbers and the berlin plant, i'm curious what you think thanks for having me. >> it always makes me a little concerned when viewers send in video questions from their cars. when the cars are moving but what is up, frank, and guy
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what do you say about tesla? >> something to said, i hope he hasn't wasn't in a tesla self-driving car i think he's on to something the comments made yesterday to scott wapner, the fact that it didn't nail today to the the down side is encouraging i think it could test the january highs which was $900.40. >> who do you say about tesla. >> i'm not going to try to argue or we'll be here all night this is momentum play. purely a technical play. it is an up trend, i think you continue to ride it. if you have a court position, because you've bought into the store, you hold that and take a portion and trade it around momentum >> so tesla falls into high multiple camp and that is part of the problem at least just in terms of the broader market dynamics working against it and others but, looking the fact that we're
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talking about this is a delivery story, i think the delivery numbers have surprise to the upside over the last couple of quarters if you listen, one of the things they've said is the size of the ev opportunity is so extraordinary. it is bigger than expected and that is good news and bad news a lot of the drivers for tesla's outsized valuation are more related to the technology and the battery and things when really the blocking and tackling here is the ev market and deliveries and free cash flow which are things they are producing on but really ultimately have you focus on the valuation >> coming up, a housing alert. rates are on the rise. what it means for your mortgage. we'll break the details. and big news from mcdonald's that got all of our mouths watering, mine included. back right after this.
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welcome back to the special edition of "fast money." we're tracking shares of amc in the after-hours session, up by 2%, the company announcing it is buying back $35 million worth of debt which will save them about $5.2 million in interest costs annually this is the most expensive part of their debt at a 15% interest rate this may not seem like a big thing. adam aaron, the ceo tweeting
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just moments ago, progress is made when you take big steps or small steps, the important thing is that you are moving forward guy, maybe little by little they could chip away at some of the outstanding debt >> this is good. this is on the margins good news it will save $5.25 million and that is great this is the high end of the interest rate spectrum this will add some fuel to the fire for all of the people that will watch your documentary that comes out next week. so i think this is -- it is definitely not negative for the stock. i think it is a margins positive. >> i do have a documentary out next week. it is not on amc but just to clarify, just in case people are wondering, we'll have more on that one, the one that premiers next week, but in the meantime on amc, climbing up 2.4% at this point, tim, i know your views on this thing, but still, this is good news
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>> yeah, i think that they're dealing from a position of relative strength and to be able to do this and take out high cost debt which was one of the issues that really looked like this was going to cave before they found retail support. and so this is capital restructuring and this is engineering of the balance sheet and it is all smart stuff to do. and frankly to the extent that a lot of people need to see a sustainable business model, one side is the revenue and the income statement but part of that is also a function of just their operating costs and their costs to capital and their debt servicing costs so you have to be happy about. this it hasn't changed the top line outlook but why not deal from a position of strength when you have it. >> big news on the housing front. mortgage rates are back on the rise a 30 year fix is back above 3%, the highest level in three
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months so will it wreck the red hot housing market let's bring in ivy zelman and author of give me shelter from a wall street trail blazer, which hits book stores tomorrow. ivy, congratulations on the book we certainly have been tracking you. >> thank you so much. >> in terms of your thoughts on housing specifically, you saw some red flags even before mortgage rates ticked above 3% so what is your assessment of where we are right now. >> well, we are concerned that the housing market is too hot and we think that rising rates will definitely dampen demand. it is very disconcerting to think what the housing market would look like if mortgage rates were to rise to as little as 4%. a 30-year fixed rate at 4% we think would arrest the market and we would see a significant slowdown and that due to the fact that two-thirds of mortgage holders in the united states have a rate lock the in below 4% so rising ratd rates will impact
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overall demand and the free money party train might be coming to an end >> ivy, on the thigh end, will i have the same effect to those participants >> i think it is worse for the high end frankly because as more rates rise and people are moving and if you look at those people that that have a mortgage rate below 3.75, it is 54%. so think about all of the people that were fortunate to lock in below three, they're not going anywhere so the move out market will feel it more so and the second home market will start to slow. so we think the move up and luxury will be more impacted the affordable impact, i think home ownership is a preferred long-term way to build wealth and i think monthly payments are in the double-digits, which is attributed to the home price inflation. but i do think it will dampen affordability for those trying
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to buy the first time home but that is where the demand is the strongest right now. >> to what extent should the institutional presence within the real estate market be factored in and to what extent, if at all, does it kind of obey some of the down side risk here. >> well i certainly think there is a strong bed from institutional investors from the states, think of red states, we're seeing a tremendous amount of capital come into the space, especially for build for rent. so what happens is they'll be a tremendous amount of new construction and the assumption is all of those homes will get leased up. we just published a report on the build front market, it is a deep dive report, we follow the money for those of you old enough to remember the movie the great -- the president's men with nixon impeachment, $60 billion over the last 18 to 24 months have been announced and entering the bill for rent space, that is mostly unlevered. so i think we'll have
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concentration risks and i think markets like phoenix today are higher than any other market and of that $60 billion, only roughly about 20%, 25% have been deployed so i think they'll keep deploying the capital because they raised the money and resee is a good dance as i like to say than any other place. >> within the sector if we do believe the rising rates will sort of ding home purchasing, is a smart trade to go into rentals? >> no. i the rental market is extremely robust and in terms of valuations are at extremely high levels and i think that the rental market for both multi-family and single family, we're seeing the metrics at peakish levels so it is hard to imagine that it will get better from here. >> ivy, great to speak with you.
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congratulations on the the book. we'll look for it. let's trade housing here, guys tim, what do you think the argument has been that the tight supply will offset any increase in mortgage rates that we see >> right well, so the home builders are not necessarily investing in the housing market and we've talked aboutance illary investments and everything from hvac to home furnishings. big hits in restoration hardware, william sonoma today and healthy pull backs in home depot and lowe's on the home builder side, some of the things are concerning to me this land inflation dynamic, where they have to chase to actually lock in land banks, et cetera, i think ultimately could be setting some of the home builders, all bee it with many much better balance sheets to a place where they may be setting themselves up when affordability is the big issue
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i think if you're looking at the overall dynamic around people having equity in their homes an consumers being robust, that is a trend that we'll continue to follow and you would still want to stay in home improvement names and ancillary. they have been dead for six months or longer despite the fact that these companies have incredible order books and have talked about despite some input cost issues that they're businesses are as sound as they've been in a long time. >> all right now before we wrap things up for this evening we want to share with you some very exciting news out of mcdonald's the fast food company announcing the mcrib is coming back the sandwich of seasons boneless pork barbecue sauce and onions and pickles on a hoagie style bun is available nationwide starting november 1st. guy, i know you could mark it on your calendar. >> you don't even know the half it i will be -- i will wait in line
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and i'll have a couple of cheeseburgers as well. nothing like it. everybody should queue up for that that is worth waiting for. fillet of fish, not so much. >> in time for my birthday thanks for being with us that does it for us here tonight on "fast money." don't go meantime, don't go anywhere. "the news request shepard smith" starts right now it's long been said the democrats eat their own. tonight it appears the feast is imminent i'm shepard smith. this is "the news" on cnbc >> we are far apart. or what they consider far apart. >> democrats divided progressives and moderates facing off over infrastructure spending >> our best interest is served by passing this bill today >> the internal political standoff with the president's entire economic agenda at stake policing parents growing acts of anger. >> you right there, you clown! >> forcing school boards to ask


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