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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  October 1, 2021 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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buffing up against 43.30 the dow's up 240 next week we'll start to get those preliminary earnings reports from the likes of pepsi, levi's, constellation and the jobs number a week from today. have a good weekend. let's get to the half. >> all right, carl thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center, what the final three months of the year will hold for your money and so many issues on the table for investors and the fed earnings and so much more we are debating it with the investment committee and liz young, jim lebenthal and josh brown. the dow's holding on to a gain of 250 the s&p's good for one-half of 1% the nasdaq's green the russell is green yield on the ten-year is at 148.
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stephanie link, we've got a lot of unknowns. what's the fed going to do with tapering what are earnings going to bring in this quarter? stocks are volatile and uncertain. what do you think's going happen >> well, there's always a list of worries, always, right? add in what you just said into is up play chain issues and we had a whole host of them this week washington unknowns and now china and china is slowing pretty quickly, but i look and i say, okay, we just had this great news on merck. i'm listening to what companies are saying they're saying demand is still very, very strong and it's the supply side that's hurting their businesses they'll figure that out, but then i look, scott, and we had a 6.7% gdp number. i look at the economy and that is really a great number today's ism manufacturing number was over 60 -- excuse me, the new orders number was over 60 and it's the 15th consecutive month and that's a leading
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indicator for higher earnings going forward and the university of michigan numbers and we were afraid that the numbers were starting to come down and that number surprised to the upside and savings rate is at 9.4% and people are spending and there's pent-up demand and i look at above-average growth in the states i lessen to what the companies are saying and yes, we have inflation and bottlenecks on the supply side of things and you add those two things up and that's why rates are going higher and that usually favors the rotation back into value versus growth and what we have been seeing minus yesterday and what we have been seeing over the last couple of weeks and i think that playbook into the end of the year is the playbook that i recommend and i have at this point. >> so earnings comps are going to be tougher, though, steph, right? what if it's disappointing that will be a problem, right? >> yeah. that's why you find companies that are number one in the industries and they have a proven track record in terms of
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exca execution and most importantly they have pricing power. these companies over the last 18 months have been restructuring and they had no choice because business went away so now you have good cost structures and you'll have a decent top line, maybe some supply constraints, i get it, but you get a decent top line, not as strong as second quarter and you do have good numbers and you have operating leverage and that's why the cyclicals and companies are the ones you want to own because they have secular tech and secular growth and not abandoning those sectors, but i skew toward more operating companies that will win, i think, into the end of the year. >> farmer jim lebenthal? >> yo. >> the most positive person at this desk is you, my friend. mr. all in >> i like the name. >> you do? >> i like the name i'm sticking with it you know, you brought up earnings, and i want to start
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there, if i may because we're talking about the earnings for the quarter that ended september 30th and what was the big motive for those three months it was the delta variant of the virus. guess what the delta variant has peaked the numbers clearly show that. the news from merck is even more positive in that regard that at least for this moment in time, cov covid is becoming less of a hindrance. it will allow shifts to be manned at semiconductor plants around the world these are positives. the fed will continue to be accommodative and continue to buy bonds for at least the next eight months and maybe in reduced sizes and that's another positive so what's weighing on the markets right now, i don't think it's earnings, scott i think it's congress. i'm going to stay on topic here, and i'm going to stay on point there's a lot of uncertain we congress and we know that and we also know that it's going to be resolved and i don't know if it's today, next week or two
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weeks, but that's the timeframe we're looking and the when you get past those uncertainty, you have all those positives that i talked about and they lead to a cyclical re-opening stage 2.0 that you can bet i am all in on. all in on, cyclicals, value, let's go >> okay. >> liz young, he conveniently our friendly farmer who is all in, costs are up everywhere and companies that can raise prices are the ones that will hold their margins up in the coming quarter. those that can't will face a hit to their margins i don't know how the market's going to like that jim says this is mostly congress that's what all of the noise in the market is all about. do you buy that? >> i think that's part of it we came into september with this kind of bag of worry, right? we are slowly unloading little pieces of that one of the big things that we came into, worried about is that
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we hadn't had a correction in so long, right? we broke that 5% correction level and we can tick that off the list and we've done it the other thing is we keep talking about seasonality and that's sort of an excuse, in my opinion, for why the market might be down and we're still in a seasonally weak period and if we use seasonality as an excuse that's like me calling you and saying it will be bad for the next few months because it's in retro grade and it's a cancer. are there real reasons weighing on us going forward. i don't think there are as many weighing on us and inflation is one of them and we wanted to lean back on the earnings picture as something to see as strength into the end of the year you're right we will probably see some weakness we will hear some communication from companies that inflation is weighing on them, but what if we just push it out like the fed did with their projections instead of seeing that strength this year, maybe that strength
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happensin 2022 when the inflation story takes more of a backseat >> josh brown, our guy, jonathan krinsky. we have him all of the time. we have little conviction that 4300 holds on the s&p, and we are at 4329 right now. we see much better support in the 4200 to 4240 range he's looking for -- that tells me, obviously if you're looking for a pullback you've heard the others on the committee. everybody sounds fairly positive are you as positive as they are? >> well, i think there are some things happening in the market with individual stocks that demand our attention, but i wouldn't contradict what krinsky is saying because you think about that distinction and the level that we're at now to where he thinks there might be the real support for anyone with a time horizon longer than a month or two that doesn't matter that much and if
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anything, what we've seen out of market participants is that they will buy the hell out of that if and when it happens. so i think he could be right on what ends up happening, but maybe we could be wrong about interpreting that to be a bad thing. it's a good thing. there are still $16 trillion in cash in -- in u.s. households right now. people would like that opportunity, and that's been the playbook that continues to work, but when i talk about the individual stocks and it's a very obvious theme today the obvious theme is people leaving their houses look at live nation, another flaw happens chart having another day today breaking out like there are no flies on that story whatsoever and the technical are lining up with the improved fundamentals. ual, a stock i don't own, and delta, same thing look at caesar's up almost 5% and the stock wants to make a record trip got killed and having a big day today, up 7% and expedia up
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4% and royal caribbean's having a good day and then you look at the small value to qqq ratio i know we can't do ratio charts on the show so i'll just describe it. it made a big move higher and that's small cap value outperforming large-cap tech, sideways for the last few sessions and now it's setting up and it looks like it's up again and that's coinciding with strength in energy and hopefully the home builder's bottoming so i feel like you have a market where the obvious trades that have gotten us this far have paused and now you're seeing this resurgence in cyclical stuff and go outside stocks and we want to see that because we know that the taper is nigh. it's like christopher montesante said, the chemical solution will subside and the economy economy will have to stand on its own
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and the stocks related to the real economy fortunately are looking like they're up to the task and that, to me, is what i want to focus. the overall index level will take care of itself. there is strength in the right places as well for a year-end run and that's what i would continue to expect >> thank you, merck, right, josh those stocks are likely reacting to the incredible news about merck's continue antiviral. you can see the light att the ed of the tunnel with covid >> it peaked already it's down 25%. new infections are down 25%. >> the merck news is a game changer. that's not my word, and that's dr. gottlieb's word. >> i agree >> i agree and i don't have a medical background i don't know if you know that about me dr. brown's is a cream soda. >> which i like. black cherry, my favorite. >> fine.
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now i'm thinking about katz's deli you distracted my whole spiel. the delta variant of the virus peaked two months ago and we are two months behind them and it's the same playbook. we know that we're not out of the woods with the virus, but what we also know is the fed is out of excuses to start removing stimulus a little bit at a time, obviously. we look at the inflation data and it's a 30-year high with cpi and we know this the market is reacting very well to that. that is a very, very good sign the market is no longer panicking over this idea of coming out of emergency stimulus and all of those stocks i just ran down for you, that is what we want to see that price action to me is very bullish and we're getting that spirituality we need back. we believe in the recovery and the stocks are signaling that. >> the biggest issue, though of what you said, i think it was yesterday when you were with us
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or it was the day before forgive me if it was that and i can't remember exactly which one, when you suggested the biggest story perhaps for the market in the next many weeks is going to be the fact that earnings coverages are going to be tough they're going to be tough on top of the supply chain issues and inflation. >> not everywhere. >> but costs are up almost everywhere >> judge, look at walmart. they're crowbaring that stock right now. it's down 10% over the last cup emof weeks target is still falling. it's down again today. gap and nordstrom are still puking and that's the area where the comps represent the headwind those companies are doing fabulously well and it has nothing to do with the fundamentals it's just the comps. they get tougher and that's not the case in energy stephanie will tell you. stephanie will tell you and that's not the case with industrials, jim will tell you we do have comp headwinds and they're not all over the market and i would argue, and we talk
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about live nation and some of the travel stocks. the comps there are not difficult at all and that's why the stocks are ripping. >> let's bring in our headliner today. tom lee, the managing partner. i may as well call you mr. all in, not jim, because you've been all in for what seems like forever. are you still looking at 4700 on the s&p 500 by the end of this year, tom lee? >> yeah. i know september was an ugly month, really tough, down 5%, but in the scheme of a market that can end the year at 47 00 and i agree with josh and the other panelists and it's just a squiggle and it will look like nothing in 12 months, and i know investors are nervous and there are a lot of headwinds here. when the wall of worry is big, that's also a good opportunity for investors. >> i know, but why did we have such a bad month in september? it's seasonal, and i get that, but it's more than that and
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we're entering another typical tough month and that's october and i feel like it's brushing off in september as if it doesn't even exist >> yeah. there was definitely a message coming out of markets in september because it really puts us on the knife edge if you're half full or half empty. you're seeing signs of good demand and stagnation. is washington turmoil something that is resolved or does it get worse into 2022 and 2024 are we at peak everything? i think there's a lot of questions, but to me, and jim mentioned this and stephanie, the fact that cyclicals outperformed in september to me is a really major signal it says that economic resilience is strong and we're definitely seeing a mixed shift in the stock market and i think people are quite exhausted with covid and i think the fact that merck does have a pill really does
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alleviate concerns about vaccination penetration, and it would be a very convenient and as dr. gottlieb says a game changing solution and it's a positive catalyst. >> rising rates are in their own way a game changing situation for stocks and multiples and valuation, and if they do start to go up, multiples are going to be depressed we can't ignore all of the things that you just said or undeniable positive, but they come, perhaps, with higher rates than what we have now anticipating an even stronger economy in the months, if not years ahead. once we can say, covid's endemic, but not paralyzing to us anymore >> another market had a change the fact that rates have gone from 1-1 to 1.5 is concerning because there's been a basis point change, but two years ago if we asked investors is the s&p
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going to have multiple compression because interest rates are at 2%, nobody would really have considered that level to even threaten the bull market two years ago we would have said 4% 6% would be the issue so i think as people look at 1.5% today or 1.8, 1.9 or 2. it doesn't burden companies. it doesn't really burden homeowners or people with debt and equity holders. >> you've been sticking with your call, as well of stay overweight faang and those stocks have been tricky lately, at best, right they feel like they're in the midst of a last september a year ago weakness, right? >> yeah. >> the market was okay because all of the other stocks did well you get my point, rid? there was a lot of slack to pick up the weight and i'm wondering if that will happen again if those stocks weaken for a more
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prolonged period what that will mean for the overall story >> that's a great question, scott, the overcrowding in faang was significant. it did save people to own faang throughout the pandemic. in 2021, faang is not, the fundamental question is are faang margins at risk because rates rise adam gold did a great analysis and shows that faang operating margins can rise if rates are rising and faang's relative performance during the inflationary period is quite good, so i think we're fearing something in faang, but because it's not as crowded they have the capability to rally strongly >> i want to get the committee involved, too. do you agree with what is a prevailing sentiment at this point that you're going to have
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much more volatility ahead, and if you do agree with that, does that crimp the kind of gains that we can see and volatility could fly in the face of the kind of market you're going to need to hit that 4700 number >> yes >> yeah, i correctly agree with you. volatility is a confidence killer if you have volatility to your end the stock market will struggle, but it does look like the vix is actually diverging. it's telling us to not be spherical. even today we have a 22 spot vix and it was in the high 20s two weeks ago. so we have lower highs in the vix. i think there's a good chance vix comes down into the teens and that supports the 4700 rally. >> stephanie link, tom lee mentioned you. it's interesting that you're buying more general electric, a stock you've owned for a while and one of tom lee's so-called
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epicenter stocks the floor is yours >> yeah. look, i like cyclicals i think the economy will grow above trend this year and next year i am watching inflation, and i do want to ask tom about the inflation question that i have, but i like ge. i'm buying more ge because they're doing the right things in terms of their portfolio and mixing it and changing it and they're doing asset sales and m and a and more healthcare and aviation and renewables and more fossil fuels and that is a higher multiple strategy in my opinion top so i like what the company is doing and they're executing and it tells me that the fact that they're making an acquisition tells me that they feel confident in the $5 billion free cash flow number that they expect to see this year. let me ask you about inflation because i know we have supply chains and that's probably transitory and i don't know if it gets resolved
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i worry a lot about changes and shelter costs. those are more permanent how worried are you about runaway inflation? >> runaway inflation, if it does happen will obviously be something that will re-price the market, but i do think investors have more anxiety about inflation risk than what the actual realized risk will be they're not as sticky as people think. we have to remember job turnovers are incredibly high and everyone that works on wall street knows there's no such thing as wages and it doesn't mean those are the levels in two years. and i think from a generalized risk of inflation the biggest risk would be if the u.s. population was growing faster because that's how you really anchor increasing wage expectations there real he has not been any country with slow population growth that has had sustained inflation and it's oneof the misconceptions as people think
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it's purely a monetary phenomena. >> i'm going to call you teflon tom because anything i throw at you or anything that has theoretically come down the road that would throw you off of your game and your predictions you just -- they just bounce off of you. what is the one thing, tom, that you could see in the near-term horizon, we're only talking about three months now before we have to get to that 4700 number. what's the one thing that upsets that that really makes you change your call do you have that in your mind what that's going to be? >> scott, you know, 80% of what would be a thesis killer would be business cycle peaking and the return on capital, and having negative returns is the reason bull markets can end. inflation actually makes return to capital decisions more profitable it makes incentives for tech companies and we're at a good moment with inflation, oddly, but the second is approximately
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s policy error because we know in 2015 it was good, but we had potential policy misstep and that's a taper misstep is what can hurt stocks to your end. >> what does that mean, a taper misstep? if they taper too much because it doesn't appear that there is a likelihood of that in any way p characterize that for me >> it will be market expect eggs and there's clear communication and a lot of checking, and i know the fed has a lot of discussions with both banks and market participants so they don't intend it surprise anybody, but the reason they might have to surprise people is if the inflation discussion proves to be quite pernicious, but it would be hard to imagine that in the next few months inflation steps up to a level that is very concerning. >> mr. all in, do you have a question for mr. all >> i have two questions.
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first one is for you, scott. you're not going give away my name, are you? because i don't think i can live with that, but let's move on to the question for tom tom, this is a pointed question and a statement in the form of a question regarding higher interest rates and multiples, why aren't we talking about what impact that will have on general motors at seven times forward? at northrop grumman at 14 times forward, at goldman sachs at ten times forward, how much will those multiples compress i hope i'm leading you to where my head is on the way i'm phrasing this. how much will those multiples compress as those interest rates head toward 2% >> that's a great point when rates rise like that, they leverage the benefit of higher interest rates, and so since 1930, rising interest rates becomes -- turns into a typhoon
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tailwind and it played out from 1950 to 1970, even 2002 to 2007 and it means stocks that are trading at seven times earnings start to get into the teens multiple y is you get the double or triple benefit of accelerating earnings growth plus they're a multiple expansion and then it's the overall market seeing better overall demand so it's almost a triple leverage for value stocks like that, and that's why they can work very well in the next 12 months. >> josh brown, do you have a question for him >> yeah, tom you made somewhat of a circular statement, and i want to hear more about it from you you said if volatility picks up the market can struggle. isn't that saying like if it rains we can get wet what do you mean by that >> i guess i'm saying that volatility is an exogenous factor and if it remains elevated because it means that
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investors are looking for high turbulence and the vix is a measure of the range that it can trade over the next few months that makes the valiant risk deaths shrink and it takes down market leverage and it undermines confidence over time. you're right it's actually like saying if it rains it's going ruin a vacation instead of -- you know -- >> very zen. i like it. >> let me take a break, but i want you to stay with me i've got jim cramer coming on in just a couple of minutes he's got a new initiative we're so excited about it's a cnbc investing club we will talk about the market, too. he has a question for you, tom, as well. do us a favor if you can please stick we're back in two.
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>> there is great news for cnbc today beyond seeing jim cramer on the air on his daily show "squawk on the street" and "mad money," investors will get more from him in the new cnbc investing club jim will be sending out daily e-mails, hosting periodic events and sharing more in video form and most importantly, investors
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will get a deeper insight into his charitable trust and what trades he's making and his candid reflections on the winners and the losers it is super exciting news. jim cramer is with us now. you are looking at the graphic and the qr code, as well we'll put that back up, it's not a graphic, fully it is literally put your phone up to the qr code. >> i know! >> and find out -- there it is put your phone up to that, literally. >> when you go to restaurant now and the covid-oriented restaurants. i have guys who are 75 who are saying that thing, i put the phone up and i got it! >> i look at this and i feel like this is about teaching which is who you are and about transparency, letting people in even further >> the investment -- you say the investment community, right? and you open the doors to the investment community i get to do the memo that i bring in to the investment committee meeting, okay? stephanie worked with me for a
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long time and what you will get from me is, okay, look we just heard someone say that they are -- talk about the cyclicals. i say, okay, look. here's what the cyclicals are. we say cyclicals, but ge, and why ge because it's got this, this, this and it doesn't intrigue us as much as disney which is what we've been telling people to buy, so what we're trying to do is just explain why you may like something. it's a recommended list, and i think it's for everybody, but boy, i worked my tail off on this, and i've got a great team, and we are all about saying, you know what? merck, okay. you like merck, here's what you do you can go with wynn, you can go with marriott, but how about disney that was just slammed in the last few days and we than disney's got a movie coming out and then i'll say, look, even though it's not on the recommended list and i saw marin
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yesterday and they hate amc, but you have bond coming up, and bond opened up huge in europe. i got that right from marin last night when i had a cocktail with him. maybe even if you are a short seller you realize hey, maybe i ought to subscribe to that because i see why amc. >> you're pulling the curtain on why you care so much about the market. >> that's it >> i go back to the title of your book. you want people to get rich, you always have. >> you want them to do it carefully. you'll be fully transparent on the winners and the losers you have, what 34 stocks? >> my dad said listen, be a teacher, you made that money and that's great, and be a teacher i said, well, dad, i've got an idea and i literally worked on this project with him many, many years ago. pop used to get these bulletins and he would say now i know what
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google is and it's what kids use. it was also about trying to figure out what pop would like pop is not part of the investment committee, but he loves the stock market and now it's about the robinhood kids telling them there's more to life than gamestop and now they probably hate me because it isn't, but it's like being on your show and being able to send memos about why i just said that josh brown is so damn smart, and he just makes me laugh, but you know what? what's more important is what josh was saying when he said it's going to be volatile thanks for nothing because he doesn't mean that. he loves him and let me tell you when i hear volatility, it's time to buy lindhy the stock was at 3.15 before whatever happened and now it's down to -- it just got crushed or maybe it's time to buy and we said enough with ups enough with the selling -- how about cisco as the winner -- the winner off this breakdown with
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zoom and five9 and i have five9 tonight. >> let me remind people once again on how to do all of this you can sign up and find out more at cnbc.com/investingclub or just point your phone at the qr code at the bottom of the screen there's the qr code right on your screen. it will take you right there again, we're super excited congratulations. >> thank you, buddy. thank you very much. an honor to come on your show and to be able to talk about what i would do with the bulletins is just so much fun. because i want to teach people why -- like disney you threw that out maybe it's about venom maybe it's about the rides maybe it's about the cruises, that's what i'll tell you. >> i think there was an upgrade on disney today. i'm not going to let you get out of here. i'll ask you about the market insights and i know you wanted to ask tom lee are you still around did you stick with me? >> i love him even more. i can't hear tom i hope he can hear us.
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>> if we have big supply chain problems and i'm trying to nail it down. a huge number of absentees like for instance in the very beginning they talked about how portland is only 65% full and therefore they have to root everything around portland and that's because of covid. so tom lee, i ask you, if you get rid of absenteeism, does that give jpal some breathing room because that means that we're not going have rampant inflation and maybe even inflation can come down if people go back to work >> oh, absolutely, jim you just hit it on the head. when you look at the supply chain glitches, whether it's companies like fedex or the buildup at the ports 80 ships out of los angeles and dozens off new york and it's an understandable fear of coming back to work and these will
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contribute to these glitches i absolutely agree and that's why i don't think it's a structural inflation problem and it's painful and investors have to really have patience to look through that >> let me ask you this, when you hear jim lebenthal, farmer jim who i have now come to call mr. all in because he is literally all in he has no cash i have 7% for the trust -- he thinks the bulk of the volatility or the caution in the market is due to the d.c. drama. dysfunction is probably a better way of character ieizing that >> you have to plow through it you have to plow through it. you know i love the eagles and there were two eagles on the offensive line who were very concerned about washington, and it was right at when the dow was down 19% for the year. they said maybe i'm getting real nervous. they did two things wrong. they played horribly and they
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also called the bottom this is not something to worry about. it's something to watch and of course, you have to keep track and there's always a thread and washington is just awful and biden -- when i bumped into biden on a train once he looked at me and he goes, you know, he hugged me and i said you know what i have no stocks oh, okay there's something -- hey, steph, can you imagine bumping into a guy who was president and you saw him on the train and he said i've got no stocks like it was a big, fabulous thing? can you imagine that >> kind of scary jim, i have a question for you, one of the nicest things you did at the street for aap members was the quarterly conference calls that you did will you do that for cnbc subscribers? >> no. i'm doing monthly calls. >> a monthly call. that's even better >> i'll do monthly calls when people have a lot of e-mails, we
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are going go in there and say i've got jack from green bay, and he's worried that he paid too much for merck we will do that, too, in our show "mad money" and when i watch your show and i say, you know what? i've had it with josh which is actually not true because i love josh i will get on and i'll do a zoom and say i just listened to josh as much as i love him i'm not buying into his thing. i'll do that >> you'll be more busy than ever. >> and i love that i didn't pay taxes i didn't know he had any sales and i got crushed by the irs he had a huge month. >> i hope you're not going to be too busy for the impromptu runout for the show. >> remember the runout the lifetime runout, the kid you had who was short paypal and long ebay? >> yes, i do >> i had to destroy that kid, but it was necessary to save
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him. >> yeah. we can't wait for this it's a big day for the network, and i know it's a big day for grew. >> i'm very excited. >> i know dad's watching >> he's not watching sunday, i don't think. we went to a ball game. >> we'll hear much more from you, don't forget the qr code. >> the qr code >> i asked my daughter what do you do with it no, it's the other side, dad okay i'm not that young i signed a five year i'll be working until i'm 52. >> you're still a young man. there it is the qr code. cnbc.com/ -- go there. >> give me a najarian now and then, too, all right >> you're the best >> tom lee, i'll say good-bye to you as well. have a good weekend. >> i'll send it over to rahel solomon. >> so many great philly connections. president biden is calling for 30 countries to fight cyber
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crime to improve collaboration among law enforcement agencies combatting ransomware and the use of cryptocurrencies. on the news tonight what could be the first death due to ransomware a baby born at a hospital who was under attack and hear details at 7:00 eastern. three generic drugmakers will pay nearly $450 to settle allegations of price fixing and sandos and apotechs have agreed to five years of internal monitoring as well alaska air is telling workers to take covid shots to keep their shots because of the carrier's work as a government contractor. grand duke george romanov is marrying both work on philanthropic projects and it is billed as the first royal wedding in russia since 1885 even though they have not been in power since 1917
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huh? hold one moment please... [ finger snaps ] hmm. ♪ ♪ the kohler walk-in bath features an extra-wide opening and a low step-in at three inches, which is 25 to 60% lower than some leading competitors. the bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. are you seeing this? the kohler walk-in bath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassage. everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohler-certified installer. and it's made by kohler- america's leading plumbing brand. we need this bath. yes. yes you do. a kohler walk-in bath provides independence with peace of mind. call... for fifteen hundred dollars off your kohler walk-in bath. visit kohlerwalkinbath.com for more info. >> welcome back. moderna and other vaccine makers down big today on news of
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america's successful trial for the covid-19 antiviral treatment. steve weiss best identified with that stock at least on this program. steve joining us now are you there? >> i'm here. >> i'm looking at it rid now down 13% how are you thinking about all of this? >> well, so, you know, full disclosure i'm on the golf course with one of the largest asset managers in the world and we're both looking at it this is absolutely ridiculous. i reached out to stefan and is there anything i'm not seeing in he said no here's how i'm looking at it i am down 51 and 53, and i'm not going go home with that, and i will go with a bigger position so the question i put out is that even though tamiflu is out there, are you still getting a flu vaccine? the answer is of course you are. so the data shows that rid now
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a and that's a 50% efficacy against keeping you out of the hospital and keeping you from dying, so i'll take the 95% surety of not getting covid rather than getting sick with the vaccine. so the bottom line is that this is just a ridiculous stock that's run quite a bit up 61% in the quarter alone and i would say there are nervous heads there, some paper pause, but i think it is a phenomenal buying opportunity and i went through an hour and a half going through everything and all public information that everybody can see. i think it's compelling. the story has not changed, bottom line. >> do me a quick favor -- do me a quick favor, you sounded a little out of breath no doubt from chasing the golf ball into the woods. >> on this hole, yeah. >> the actual trades that you made, can you go through those again a little bit slower for
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our viewers and the prices, please >> yeah. so i brought it down 46 points first and they continued to drop and i don't know where it bottomed, but i saw it down 56 at one point i didn't buy it there. as i start to move up i bought it at 53 and down 53 points and i bought it again at 51 points, roughly. so, look, the numbers are the numbers. i'm in 30 bucks this year and the vaccine right now is priced at 18 to 25 bucks per dose they've agreed to keep that pricing only through the pandemic as soon as the pandemic is over and we're seeing forecasts that come in the back end of it, that pricing goes up to standard pricing and that's $150 to $200 per dose and it will come to 50 micrograms which will be much more potent so the profitability will be enormous and then you've got next year and you'll get phase three on your
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quadravariant which is efficacy with 4060 and covid of course. you get a birth vaccine and that's a $2 to $5 billion market so the pipeline has almost doubled year over year and it takes a lot shorter period of time because it's technology and it's not putting a dead virus in you or a live virus in you and it's not the j&j, so nothing's changed except the price which is the severe everreaction because it doesn't impact whether you take the vaccine or not like a flu vaccine >> i'm going to leave it there i appreciate you stepping away from the tee box and calling in because it's an important story today. >> and i appreciate you taking me away from the tee box on this particular hole? what say great story today for merck and maybe not so much in terms of the stock performance
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steve weiss, thank you very much we have more committee moves to tell you about and i'll do that next power, we can harness the energy of the tiny electron. we can create new ways to connect. rethinking how we communicate to be more inclusive than ever. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change. faster. vmware. welcome change. [uplifting music playing] ♪ i had a dream that someday ♪
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principal. for all it's worth. ♪ ♪ i can turn anyone into a beach bum. i bring families together for a living. i make memories for people i don't know yet. i know this view is too good not to be shared. i am a vrbo host. ♪ ♪ steph, i want to go through a couple other moves i noticed from you today estee lauder you sold and twitter as well. can you tell us quickly about each >> really quick. i just made money in them,este lauder, up 70% since i
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bought in spring of 2020 i love the story but i think they're vulnerable on terms of china and the slow down. twitter, simply i'm up 20% made my money and, again, if it were to pull back i would probably get back into it. the xpo i trimmed a little bit i worry about the supply chain in general and driver shortages, and i put that money into gxo. i like that story quite a bit. they have better pricing power >> that's kind of where you are at though. you are looking at big winners looking to take gains where you can at this particular time? >> yeah. you know what, i always like to have a little extra cash around earnings season, scott, a little dry powder so i can diep at the dips that's what i plan to do >> sounds good we will take a quick break and come back with your final trades on the other side. as i observe investors balance risk and reward,
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i see one element securing portfolios, time after time. gold. your strategic advantage.
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let's do final trades before we get out of here for the weekend. liz young, you go first. >> i am using renewable energy today. i think it hasn't come off of -- it hasn't had as much strength since the peak in the beginning of the year. the proof of supply chain issue shows we need clean energy i think it is due for a comeback >> good to see you today mr. all-in, farmer jim >> i got to start with a quick compliment to my arch nemesis steve weiss. he sees irrationality in a stock and he is stepping into it that's what you should do in cleveland-cliffs the idea of this stock is selling off because infrastructure might not happen is foolish you should buy cleveland-cliffs. >> okay. stephanie link >> the gap it is down 36% from its highs. the valuation is very cheap at 11 times forward, 2% yield they have momentum in athleta
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and old navy i like the pull back and would be a buyer >> interesting it is one of the stocks you mentioned, josh, as well what is your final trade >> stephanie >> yeah. >> did you see the easies though >> we have ten seconds ten seconds. >> what do you think all right. >> no. >> final trade, amazon >> all right yes, steph a new hoodie. have a good weekend. "the exchange" starts now. now i need to know, now i got to check it out. thank you, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. ahead this hour a major breakthrough in the fight against covid-19 merck's pill cuts hospitalization rates. the stock is soaring, giving a big boost to the dow we will dig into all of it supply chain woes are slowing growth, auto sales falling as there aren't enough cars to sell we will talk about the impact of the chip shorter with former nissan ceo carlos ghosn and ask about his escape from japan. plus, a safety pick, a deal is gone, a settlement, and

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