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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 5, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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all of it is coming together >> the perceived fed has been the formula. 2015, 2018, that was kind of what got the markets in trouble. i doubt and hope it is not an every three-year thing, but that's the combination you have to look out for. right now it seems like a relatively routine correction. >> tonight i am going to make sure my cnbc pro subscription is up to date >> i am going to watch the playoffs >> no, i am going to watch melissa lee at 8:00 p.m. and right now as we turn it over to "fast money. >> thank you this is fast money tonight's lineup -- we are going off the charts. one top technician is laying out the top key level to watch plus fanduel ceo joins us.
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why she is calling sports betting boom a big bubble. and the squid game effect. if you don't know what that is, we will explain. what might be the ultimate teflon tech stock. microsoft is just 5% below its all time high. microsoft is the only mega stock that hasn't seen a 10% correction from peak to trough so what is microsoft telling you and how are you trading this name dan nathan, let's go to you first tonight. >> hi, mel it's interesting when you put the graphic up there, all of the other names up there we know combined amount to about 25% of the sa&p 500, the fact that microsoft didn't have that correction is interesting in and
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of itself. maybe it was the bottleneck issues or issues with china. they have been through a lot of that already again, we have to look for different stories in this market they are not all the same. we did not expect them all to go down the same amount when you look at apple and amazon, amazon is down on the year apple is only up 6% on the year. then you look at microsoft and say something is going on there. i feel better heading into q 3 earnings as we head into next month. >> this is one of the best big cap tech charts in the market? >> it does set up nice look where it pulled back to, the level it consolidated to back july and it looks like it's about to make another run towards the prior highs. >> that was a rhetorical question guy, what do you think in terms
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of a lot of the woes the rest of the tech sector is dealing with. >> microsoft is impervious to other things high interest rates has been part of it microsoft probably has about 15% eps growth going back to the last quarter they talked about stable growth, have 41.5% operating margins looking at it after the analyst call the thing was the september 14th announcement when they said they were buying back $60 billion of stock back everybody got geeked up like on mountain dew i think in earnings on october 27th it sets up well i think microsoft is the most important company on the planet.
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>> valuation doesn't look too bad, but when you compare it to other big cap tech stocks, it is not the cheapest apple is dealing with supply chain issues microsoft is more expensive than alphabet how do you evaluate the two or find relative value in big cap tech >> i think we have talked about this before. in this market, whether you are talking about growth or value, it is what has commonly worked regardless of what style you are in guy mentioned it may not be the cheapest stock, but valuation is reasonable, strong cash flow yields this is what the market likes and microsoft has been the name. i think investors will continue to look for those sorts of
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qualities. talking about teflon or volatility, you could have said the same thing about nasdaq. i don't think anything is immune to volatility, but certainly investors are looking at growth versus others. relative to technology as a whole, even on down days, yesterday was a good example, you are not seeing the growth in tech as the past couple months i think thattrade got crowded. i think you are starting to see economic surprises i think there is more air to come out of this trade i want to be in the lead of this reemerging leadership. you have banks trading above their 200-day averages i think that's where it will be at the end of the year >> would you rather is not necessarily the question tonight. a lot of people want to be in
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energy and materials but at the same time they want to keep some sort of balance in technology, particularly big tech cap >> the balance in big cap tech is not going to leave you tomorrow i will point out that microsoft has been the best performer mega cap tech loss of 8% in the last five days, but still only down 9.75% from their all-time highs. it's nice that microsoft is outperforming. they don't have constraints that some other companies do. apple finally had to announce some issues and they can lean on suppliers more than just about anybody.
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it will stop being a safe haven when the fed takes more out of the market you lost half a point on the ten-year that has been some pressure. the pressure is liquidity. the biggest companies in the world will continue to see most of the liquidity as funds flow in that's the story microsoft, no dispute against making a point against a company who has given you everything you need ultimately it is a case where teams stealing the thunder from zoom even though zoom created the competition. >> as long as rates are where they are in this range, guy, is that goldilocks for the cyclical
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trade as well as some of the big trade tech names >> yes to answer your question specifically as long as ten-year yield stays between 140 and 155, i think that is the sweet spot for many names, specifically banks. but when you get outside of that, it's a different conversation i am trying to answer a specific question i hate the term goldilocks i always rooted for the bears. but there you go, mel. >> our next guest says the nasdaq has more room to run, but not everyone is along for the ride chris, take it away. >> i think this is tricky and we are entering the fourth q good seasonality. but i want to be more shrektive
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than i would this time of year s&p peaked about a month ago they are down about 6% from the high most stocks peaked in late april or early may the average is down closer to 15%. what i thought was interesting over the last few days heading into this morning, you had three successive lower lows on the s&p, thursday, friday, monday. but what was curious was fewer and fewer stocks were making new lows at each one of those index. if we bring up the first chart, just bringing you the percentage of s&p stocks that make a one-month low, it has been declining for a week i suspect most stocks are bottoming. i am not convinced the index has necessarily bottomed that's an odd dynamic. what the average stock is doing
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is often different than what the index is doing there is nowhere that is more pronounced than nasdaq nasdaq is down about 8 but i think we need to be aware about 55% of nasdaq is above its 200-day moving average going into the fourth quarter that number was like 85 or 90% internals are better than a year ago. that tells us in the next couple months we have to be more selective than we otherwise would this time of year. i brought along four names i think are worthy of our attention here these final months of the year i do like netflix. they are the anti-thing. they have not participated all summer they are starting to break out and show some leadership
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we would like it at 725. i like cisco as well you have had a good correction it's a long-term jar got oversold, back to support. kind of in the 52 to 53 range i think you want to put exposure on nasdaq 100 is not all tech there is consumer, too care marriott there is momentum we like marriott long. it has momentum and a great long-term chart. i think it's going to 175. then there is one name i don't want to touch. i think we have to be very skeptical of amazon. there are 60 analysts who cover amazon on the street all 60 have a buy rating on the stock and no one has made money in 18 months i thought it was tepid today
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if amazon can't hold 3175, it's going lower. three names we like, one to be careful with, but maybe more selective in the final months of the year >> that was strong calling out the sell side on amazon. jeff has a question. >> you know i read your stuff. looking at some of the recent reports and the strength of the market we have seen reemerge and talking about some of the areas that have been beat up and starting to recover, you are seeing 95% above the 00 day, 95% of banks above the 200 day. so is it a symbol of longer term growth >> you said it eloquently at the top of the show. this growth scare with the market four or five months is
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coming to an end i am not sure that's great for the index chgt it might be good for the average cyclical i want to position in this time of year in the direction of momentum financials have momentum, energy has momentum i am not sure tech or long duration names have the momentum i might be more inclined to save some of those moves. >> including microsoft, chris, quickly, since we did lead the show with that and made a big deal how it's resilient? >> these corrections typically aren't over until everything gets smacked around. you oebserved that microsoft is the only one not down 10%. does this have to go down 10%? i might be a little more careful
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here >> thanks, chris >> dan, what did you make of his advice >> i like it we haven't had an ordinary day where it feels like capitulation i don't think 5% from the peak is it. i think it's one step forward, two back much i think the last battle fought will be tesla. it has made a massive run. it has been at higher highs and lower lows since trading we are at 780 and that thing hasn't budged. when you see that thing south of 700, that's probably the sign you will start seeing money flow back into microsoft, apple and some other big names >> one company feeling under the weather. down more than 10% over the last month. what is the cure traders are taking the temperature on this trade next
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plus netflix, the squid game effect if you have no idea what we are talking about, stick around. we will break it all down when "fast money" returns
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welcome back to "fast money. the bio tech is lagging under the market and is down 10% over the last 8 sessions. it is said we are in one of the worst selloffs is it time to bet on a big bounce guy, he was flouting that we haven't seen bio techs perform very well. he threw out some names, but there are many of them >> moderna is on the top of the list i think between moderna and am amgen. i happen to agree. moderna has sold off this merck news didn't help. you go back a couple nomonths ad
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moderna is at levels it should hold i think amgen is cheap >> jeff, you like ibb because it is not a basket level case do you like it itself as an investment >> yeah. the chart doesn't look great if failed at the february high down the 200 day i agree with guy, there are ones that look overdone i think it is a reasonable entry point. but regardless of the near term it's a great way to get diverse exposure to a corner of a market that has huge growth potential over time and you are not exposed to idiosyncratic names it is not like going all out on
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moderna before the big pop it has lagged over the last five years, but if you pull your lens back over the last decade, it has crushed the s&p 500. i think we are on the precipice of innovation in biotech so i think, yes, hold ibb. >> you can look at it as glass half full in that we haven't seen a draw down like this in years. >> i think constituents have a lot to do with this. before the drawdown, and we have struggled, but this is one of the best five-year charts if you take it all of the way back. moderna, unfortunately, there is no value in moderna. where is the next ball a lot of baseball tonight, mel
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if you look at moderna with a pullback, you are looking at a basis of 10% biogen just dropped down we know that story the alzheimer's head fake, a lot of misdirection on that news great diversification, but these are great companies with great balance sheets as you get below moderna, i think you have a strong valuation in place i think the moderna story can go lower. it is not this hasn't been a true home run ball, but going to 200 on the chart is not impossible we have an after hours alert. bertha >> palantir jumping after hours. an analytics contract with the u.s. army. they will update the foundation.
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it will be used to fight emerging threats this is their gotham platform. the contract is worth about 823 million. >> thanks, bertha. your underperformer. you liked this at the beginning of the year. >> this time last year we talked about what the acronym should be for next year. exactly. it has underperformed without question this is good news on the margins. the really good news for palantir is when they offer a less expensive version for some of these mid sized businesses. that's where the margins will be and when they get the next level of valuation i think the stock should be higher, but when you see news like that is when the stock goes
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from 25 to 50. >> we are just getting started here on "fast money. next -- >> the squid game effect netflix. and one hot new show could be driving the stock on a record run. plus, just buy it. nike running higher as teams lace up on the sneakers stock. that and more when "fast money" returns. ♪♪ since our beginning, we've looked to inspire and nurture each other by asking what's possible? what's possible when we connect? what's possible when we come together?
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welcome back to "fast money. netflix flew to an all time high today. check out our chart of the day netflix app daily down loads hitting their highest of the year, thanks in part to its new
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hit show "squid game." it currently holds a 90% approval rating on rotten tomatoes here are the cliff notes, it is a south korean show. there is a catch contestants learn that it is more than about winning. if you lose, you die there it is in the nutshell. how are you trading the record run of netflix >> squid games are not -- netflix was dead money from july through august, 2020 to 2021 i think the expectations is subs come in better than the 3.5 million. it was a terrible q 2 number and now you are getting better
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comps and getting past the tough comps. we talked about the gaming story, acquisition of night school but talking about a concept to putting it into play i have never been a buyer -- a victory lap for tom rogers who has talked about net fliflix foa long time. kudos not only from me, but a lot of other people. i feel like it goes higher >> dan, you may be the one panelist on tonight who may have watched squid game or knew what it was before he would told everybody about it do you like netflix? >> what tim is referring to is jeff bezos tweeted about it, giving them kudos about the quality of the content just when you thought we watched everything on the internet, these guys have been pumping out
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stuff that like you said, mel, is up there in 90 countries including the u.s. that may be why they have confidence about the sub numbers. it reminds me of amazon over the summer the stock has broken out after being dead money then it was disappointing and came in hard i am not sure you chase this thing. even if they pull forward with the quid games, it might revert back after >> there is a bigger pool for potential content if you factor in international content which viewers of the united states or elsewhere are willing to watch subtitles or watch it dubbed i don't want to say game changer for netflix, but that means big things in terms of content spend. >> it's very important and a
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constant content battle. it's the new stuff, old stuff. much to my wife's disappointment seinfeld is on net flflix so tht is pulling me back in. i think it is trading at 51 times forward. it is somewhat expensive for this market in terms of if he would see these longer duration cash flows get hit, netflix might be in that bucket. but they have shown they are able to sustain strong revenue growth because they have pricing power. doesn't affect the customer churn as much. even a valuation multiple down the line for a more mature company, there is reasonable upside in stock. i will probably get put in the penalty box. i always think about disney in
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comparison given disney plus i lean in that direction because i think they have scope to raise the prices versus netflix who are at the higher press point. >> i both rolled my eyes and put you in the ledger. guy? >> i have never seen seinfeld nor will i see it on netflix number three, at a certain point it doesn't matter. net netflix hasn't done this you own this stock in earnings on the 19th of october, but i understand what dan is saying so maybe pull the rip cord and look for a pullback but it's netflix and everyone else, something we have said on this show for years. coming up, the bet is on
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amy howe joins us. why sports betting is entering bubble territory and how nike has traders lacing up we will break down the trade when we return and managed services from comcast business. and get cybersecurity solutions that let you see everything on your network. plus an expert team looking ahead 24/7 to help prevent threats. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. as i observe investors balance risk and reward, i see one element securing portfolios, time after time. gold. your strategic advantage. what happens when we welcome change? we can make emergency medicine possible at 40,000 feet. instead of burning our past for power, we can harness the energy of the tiny electron.
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welcome back to "fast money. shares of nike up. number one in apparent and footwear for the 11th straight years. it does better than things like lulu lemon and vans and converse >> we have been talking about nike for the past couple months. i thought if you wanted to fill in a gap, that's where you do it we know it will be a difficult holiday selling season if you can look buy that, that makes sense. nike is a stalwart on the list of that survey and probably deserves that rich premium if we can think past some of
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these new york term hiccups, i think this is good at a level. >> i decided to trade it heading into earnings. probably not the best idea i agree with dan you had the stock down 15% or so and it's bouncing convincingly off the average. run thing i took from the earnings report i thought was positive even amid the rising costs was in gross margins you are continuing to see nike focus on consumer. 65% of sales are at full price you have the vietnam concerns. that's going to continue to be an issue for the next couple quarters i think that's well understood by the mark. t -- market. the price reflects it some if it goes into the middle of
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next year, that's a problem, but i agree with dan, i think it's a good entry point we are live in las vegas next but first, cnbc celebrates hispanic heritage month. >> -- named ceo of coca-cola company. it was the best known trademark in the world we have a long tradition of driving growth in corporate america, yet are invisible on corporate arbods how do you see that the table matters? this hispanic heritage month, let's raise the representation
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>> welcome back to "fast money." a mixed day for the sports betting stocks our next guest says the sports betting boom is entering bubble territory. we go to las vegas with contessa take it away >> are you ready for this? this is amy howe's big new first
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interview as ceo of fanduel, and not as acting ceo, but as ceo. congratulations. >> thank you so much much. i couldn't be more happy doing it >> this chase for u.s. players in this sports market is entering bubble territory. can you explain what warning signs are you seeing there >> i think if you -- all you need to do is watch an nfl game to see how intense the battle is for acquisition rights we have eight to nine more states coming online so we are in a critical window right now we spent the first half of the year, we spent 3.5 billion in marketing. i think there is only a certain level of companies that can stay at that. a big part of what has made
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fanduel distinctive is we were the first to market with fan base ultimately those companies that have those advantages -- >> the customer acquisition costs are so high. you said how long can you sustain that i saw a recent survey that showed there is no loyalty among sports betters they go for who is giving them the most loot. how do you wean players off of we will put $500 or $1,000 in your account >> at the end of the day, one of the things we see from the research is consumers have to trust the brand, the betting platform it may be a $5,000 risk that brings you to the platform, but at the end of the day we provide
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a safe experience and the world provides an engaging experience. there is lots of money thrown in the marketplace but -- >> i hate to rehash old news, but when we saw the super bowls and lockdowns, and snafus, how important is the seamless technology just for in game or otherwise, but for the ease of takingmoney out and moving you money around >> it's critically important we just completed migration to a hard betting platform which came as a result of the great work our parent company has done. we are on a stable tech platform which matters. when you have a super bowl and every year you have more and more coming on line, you need a reliable platform. that's part of building that trust with consumers we feel good about where we are
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and are in control of our own destiny. >> fanduel and draftkings were the dominators you had those already ready to watch when the supreme court overturned a ruling. caesars is prepared to spend $1 billion on marketing to launch their sports betting app and they have a player reward database to bring in how do you guard your territory? >> we have issued guidance that we are on track to hit we believe we will come in between $1.8 and 2 billion in revenue and that peuts us ahead of 50% of the field.
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we have to be sure we are in market on day one and establish that leadership position you are right, it's an intense battle right now >> melissa, do you want to jump in >> i sure do amy, how do you think about other areas of growth outside of sports betting whether tangential or ancillary businesses like crypto or nt platforms? where do you see the growth in the next five years. >> we have one of the largest and broadest portfolios today. fancy sports and sports betting. we also have one of the biggest i-gaming businesses. a big part of the opportunity is we bring i gaming onto the platform and introduce them to others that's a big part of the story we are sitting within flutter and there is a tremendous amount
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we haven't leveraged to date particularly in the i gaming >> i want to ask you about florida. the scheduled launch was to be next friday, october 15. we sat earlier with jim allen the ceo of hard rock and seminole gaming. tell me about the ballot initia initiative you have joined in on to try to get entrance on what could be the biggest betting sports market in the united states >> there is complexity on how we navigate both florida and california represent interesting opportunities, but i think we are doing that in a way that will ultimately benefit the consumers in those states. in florida the education campaign and in california,
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great causes like homelessness and mental health. >> we look forward to listening in on your calls thank you for this first interview as ceo >> thank you contessa and amy howe guy, we have had analysts on in the past, and say as much as sports gaming gets attention, but igaming is a huge opportunity. >> there will be a few winners it is a huge land grab i think draftkings gets about 87% of their revenue on sales and marketing. at a certain point this will sort itself out and the wheat will be separated from the chaffe
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pdy is a $35 billion company penn is at a critical level. almost cut in half from its all time high. that $70 level, it's critical it holds. >> i will go to jeff because i think you own this one, penn >> it's interesting. i think it wants to turn higher. it's trading at valuation now that's more reasonable thinking more tactically about what is going on with china and some of the casinos. i like the stock i think it's interesting mel, you asked about draftkings, penn, is this the right time to own the stock. no, it's not higher valuation and longer term gross. it's interesting in that the s&p 500 down, growth down.
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draftkings have been beat up and have bucked the trend and gone higher i think investors are looking forward to the potential >> tim, would you buy one of these on line gaming stocks? >> in the short-term mccow is my investment might investment is on line gaming states are coming online more coming. it's an investment for the future >> speaking of sports gaming,
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don't catch a documentary tonight. we will take you inside the explosion of online gaming and sports betting for some it has been a wild ride >> last year the tampa bay rays had a miraculous world series run and i had a 25/1 bet to win. i became a rays fan. i bought a hat and would have bought a jersey if they won. >> he sees the run firsthand at the company headquarters in boston this is his scoreboard of real time engagement. >> in the last minute there were 462 bets made on our sportsbook. it keeps on updating pre-super bowl we will get to tens of thousands per minute >> tens of thousands just before
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the super bowl, before the game starts that day? >> before the game starts that day. >> tens of thousands of bets a minute don't miss "generation gamble. coming up, traders fueling up on gm buckle up, we have a whole lot more of "fast money" after this quick break. isn't it a paradox? that the love for this world that gets us out in it sometimes leaves behind the things that can harm it? but now, flight by flight, we can make a difference. because delta has committed to becoming the world's first carbon-neutral airline on a global basis. we believe you shouldn't have to choose between seeing the world, and saving it. ♪♪
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welcome back here is a sneak peek at the cramer cam at the top of the hour jim made some moves today brieg shares of papal for his charitable trust you can read more about what jim is buying and selling with the cnbc investing club. he gives you his unique view in the market sign up now. or point your phone at the qr code on the screen and it will take you there shares of gm heading higher?
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let's bring in mike because he spotted some interesting things. >> calls outpacing puts by about three to one october 54 calls 16,000 traded at $1.67 that included institutional buyers buyers of those call options are betting that gm will rise above the strike price by at least 1.67 that would put it back at prices it hasn't seen since july. it may recover from the drop we saw. >> what do you want to hear tomorrow >> about their bat tery operations and sustainability of the company. i don't find that in question. i think the market is questioning that can they maintain the same
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growth margins they have invested a lot in their battery and autonomous technology i believe there are other ways to mon ties this i'm excited. >> guy >> without question, if they say some of the things -- this move from 60 something to 50 was self-inflicted wounds on gm's part they have an opportunity to clean the slate. you have a stock trading at eight times the numbers. i understand you don't buy when they are cheap but with the $7 they are going to earn -- you can do the math, i can. that's where it should be
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trading. >> what do you see if the company faces more supply chain issues >> i do. i think the market is willing to look past it i think people want to hear about the growth, revenue, evs and to guy's point, the growth story. was trading at 12 times and now 8 times, but historically 8 times isn't that much. back in 2013 and 2014 it was trading at 14 times and didn't go anywhere for a while. i think 8 times now is probably too cheap. i do think the stock goes higher >> thank you more more options action tune in for the show up next, final trade so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim trading™ is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor.
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time for the final trade around the horn. tim seymour? >> watching your special tonight, mel and watching gm investor day >> jeff mills? >> national gaming 50% off
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i think it's turning >> dan nathan? >> i am with him on the amazon 3,000. i am watching generation gamble tonight. >> guy adame >> i'm not i am watching the yankees. >> i knew it you can watc "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not just to educate you but teach you. if a company is doing well and stock price stops reflecting that, then sooner or later you get a relief rally,


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