movies and also the demographic that can get vaccinated. this isn't a kids movie and you know, people want to have some fun. >> i saw a screening on monday night, and i have to say as soon as it started i had a feeling that it's something that you cannot re-create in your movie theater at home. we'll see what the numbers look like next week have a good weekend, guys. let's get to the half. carl, thanks so much welcome to the halftime report i'm scott wapner and the jobs sxhis what that means to your money and what matters most in the market brynn talkington, and jim lebenthal and jon najarian let's start with a check on the markets. what a volatile week it has been as we wrap it all up the dow's good for eight s&p's down a couple and the nasdaq is where the action's been and the volatility is

down 1/3 of 1% and approaching 160 approaching 161 and the dow has been on track for its best week since june. mr. all in i start today with you as i feel almost compelled to do after this disappointing jobs report so many questions about the taper, questions about rate. are stocks in a tenuous position today, jim lebenthal, or not >> your honor, i don't think so, and as evidence i would submit to you, just take a look at our cyclicals and obviously, you can take a look at energy and the stocks are going through the roof, but you can also take a look at financials and this is counterintuitive because after the jobs report, you might have said whoa, maybe the fed will back off a little bit. the ten-year yield, maybe it goes down. no, it went up and it went up for one good reason. i can't explain the weakness in today's jobs report. i'm not going to explain it because it's aberrational to what we are clearly seeing in terms of the delta surge has

peaked several weeks ago, and you're starting to see the tentative green shoots from industry like the airlines you know that delta hit them hard and they're starting to see demand slowly pick up and these are green chutes and they have a long way to go and that's why you're seeing the 10-year rate rise. >> and i'll just say one more thing. >> go ahead. >> as tenuous, i understand we look at the headline s&p 500 and tenuous is a good wor d for it we look at the headline number and we look at the cyclicals that are setting all-time highs and northrop grumman industrial and raytheon technology, aerospace and marathon petroleum refiner, and underneath the headlines, there is such a strong bid in the cyclicals and the evidence is there, your honor, that the cyclical re-opening trade is on right now. >> all right >> then why is morgan stanley's

mark wilson now calling for fire and ice? before it was fire or ice. 10%, maybe 20% correction. he says we've been calling for a mid-cycle correction to happen one of two ways. tightening financial conditions as the fed signals, tapering is coming ice, growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side and it goes on to say today and this is the bomb sshell, and we think these scenarios will happen together. farmer john says everything is great and we're not in a tenuous position mike wilson says with all due respect, farmer jim, i don't know what else you've been doing on the farm, but something's not right. who's right? who is right >> well, i'm going to start with as the wise peter lynch said more money has been lost trying to predict corrections than has been lost in the corrections

themselves so let's start there i think that as we get later in the year, mike is obviously a very smart strategist. he's been calling for this correction for a really long time and this could be another 2017, though, when the peak to trough decline in the s&p was about 3.5%, and so we got it in 2018, so i think his fire and ice analogy has legs, what he's saying i do think that it's important to realize as an investor the red has been driving down the hallway on cruise control at 90 miles an hour for -- since march of last year >> i thought you were going to say forever. >> kind of forever kind of, since 2009, right it's really when qe started. they tried to pull it back and then we started again. you can say we've had 11 solid years with a couple of years of reprieve in the middle, but there's a $120 billion per month

purchases that they've clearly signaled they're going to start to do that because it's the responsible thing to do. i do think that cruise control will come off and the fed will put their foot back on the pedals and they're trying to understand how quickly or slowly they will taper. i totally agree with jim about the jobs report because we all know the statistics. i think it's about five job openings for each four people that want a job, so we're clearly not in a market where people can't get a job it's just other factors at bay, and so i'm going to actually go with peter lynch and lean into jim as well because i think we will have a correction that's just evergreen. we get them all the time, but i want to know how you're positioned for it, though, because as this market has continued to climb the wall of worry, if you were sitting on the sidelines that is me is missing the market and all of a sudden you get that fomo and

feel you have to get that in, if you don't get that correction. >> the bottom line, the market is telling you today by virtue of the ten-year, i think, at 160 and approaching 161 that the taper is on. that the jobs report is not going to derail the fed from announcing a taper in november that, to me, is what the vote is on your screen right here. the question is how is the market going to react, mike sechin tightening cycle equals correction, farmer jim and brynn say it's all good. there's not much to worry about that we can handle all of this what's the story what do you think? well, i actually think that the fed is going to start to talk to taper in november. i think it's on. i think the jobs number is want as bad as you think. you may remember the fed made a switch to focus on the tight labor market in the last meeting and there's still evidence that

gives the fed ammunition to begin to taper in this report. 317,000 private sector jobs, unemployment down to 4.8% and an average of hourly earnings up to .6. so i think the fed is abought she engaged and they're focused on taper, but as crazy as it is, the thing that we're most concerned about is not the fed it's something that's more unpredictable and it's how cold the weather will be and given that growth appears to be decelerating which we think is transitory energy prices are at their highest levels since 2014, and have the potential to exaggerate supply disruptions and further inflate prices, this is one of the hazards as we move from a worldwide focus on -- on to a worldwide focus on renewables and decarbonization. >> i hear you. are we in a tenuous position or not?

let's just cut right to the chase. if you're going through the thing here what's the story >> cut to the chase, scott i would say that we're not on the surface, but there are a lot of things that could derail us and the one thing i point out is something that could lead inflation expectations to rise i think the fed thinks they're behind the curve in something that was transitory and the delta variant is not transitory in this inflation persistence. so i view this -- hold on one second i view this change as a healthy change in policy and one that they needed to do, and i think the markets may even rejoice this, and so as we get to the re-opening which i agree with jim, that's happening, we're going to be in an environment that's a little more healthy and i think stocks can do well i think you will have quality growers and you can own the re-opening trade both >> are we good now

>> we're great >> all right good >> pete, so -- the direction of the taper and the direction of interest rates is going to especially impact technology, a all right? wells fargo has an interesting note, we continue to expect a choppy market rally and a two to four week tech bounce, the techs bounced a little bit this week apple is up a half percent, apple up 2.5, netflix up 4.5, but, they say, the bounce probably petered out next month when the fed says those magical words, we will begin to taper. so i have decidedly different opinions from the street and the couple, two or three members of our committee today. you just bought amazon calls so -- yes, sir that tells me that you're pretty optimistic that this techtrade can continue this little bounce

we've gotten this week, pete >> yeah. i think sometimes, scott, it's just a big overreit, and i mean that because when i look at stocks like apple and microsoft and the stocks that you brought up, amazon, netflix, am i concerned as much as everybody else seems to be when i'm looking at interest rates? no i understand the whole process oh, well, you got the interest rates and you're not getting the growth and you move away from growth i go for quality and when i name those names we're talking about quality names that can survive in any environment wherever the ten-year is. >> are you sure? >> why do you think that because that's going to become the central debate you're at 161. >> right we're knocking on the door of 161. so if you get a continued move higher on the expectation that next month the fed will say the magic words that wells fargo mentions today, why can tech withstand that not just amazon, but many of the big five and many of the other names, as well >> there are quality names out

there that can survive in whatever market we are in, and we've seen this rotation and by the way, they have paused as we've talked about many times and they've essentially paused for a while and this is what we've seen last year when we had the pause and a little bit more and we started to see technologies start to perform. i think that's still the same thing that will happen this year i think, yes, we've been in this pause. apple has not been blowing everybody away with its moves and most has pulled off significantly from its highs and amazon has hung around for a while. so i do think there's upside coming and i think that they can survive because of the quality of their names if you're asking me about names that have incredible multiples or no multiple at all, then that's a different story i think those are the names that people are going to come after, but when you talk about the quality names, cisco, oracle and salesforce and microsoft and apple and those kinds of names i don't worry. i think those names can survive and move up in any kind of a

market the difference is when we see the velocity of the move sometimes of the ten-year that's what sort of trips up the market in a big way and we've seen that play out right before our very eyes where we've seen unbelievably fast moves out of the ten-year and that sort of spooks the market to where they walk away and that's exactly what we've seen. i'm not overly worried unless we get the velocity-type moves to the upside, but even then that creates opportunity from the quality names. >> you know who agrees with you, pete who do you think agrees with you? tom lee. he said buy the dip in technology >> he did, as he usually does and brynn is listening because brynn bought more amazon, as well >> i love having the same trade

as pete. i bought amazon last week and let me just talk a second about the rates. i think you have to be open and there is a pretty decent probability that the bond market is pricing in the taper that's going to come, and so when it actually starts to get announced we will see and we know that and the markets stabilize. there is a decent possibility that that's what's happening i also think that long term and i'll say going out 2022, 2023, i think that gdp growth is going to be slowing, and therefore i still want to own tech, and if you look at amazon specifically, what's interesting is if you go back to really a year and a half ago and look at a chart on amazon, it's been in this really nice channel between 3150 and 3600 it hit 3800 in july of this year and then it's come back down, so i added it last week right around 3200 and that's the entry point and that's the bottom of the channel and to pete's point,

it's high quality and what most people don't realize and it's worth to reflect on is that in 2017, amazon had a p-e of 250. right now i want to say it's sub-60, and so that p-e has been falling as their earnings and their multiples have been contracting quite nicely so i thought it was a great entry point and once again, i love being shoulder to shoulder with pete. >> let's bring in the headliner, chris toomey he joins us once again, good to see you. >> nice it see you, scott. >> i was going to say everybody sounds a little bulled up on the program today. do you want to temper the enthusiasm with your own thoughts or are you as bullish as they seem to be >> no. i think we're really cautious. the employment number threw everybody for a loop and it's basically telling us what we all knew which is while we've made significant progress in the fight against covid, delta has

delayed the opening and as easy as it is to flip a switch, to get the global supply chain going again and be operating at full capacity is a little bit harder and despite everybody's hope and desire to get back to normal, you know, if you're trying to get your kids to school and the busses aren't running or you're trying to do any of the other things that you think are the new normal world it's just being slowed down because of covid, and i would make the point that i think the last time i was here was some time in mid-june i think the ten-year is at 157 the fed had just come out and there was talk about tapering and this new hawkish tone. we're at about 1.6 right now i was listening to jim cramer earlier today, and i think he's got it spot on, in the sense that powell is really concerned with what the e-opening will look like, and so i can make the argument that mike is right

about fire and ice, but it will be delayed that this delta virus has not necessarily gotten us through the early part of the recovery and that a lot of that pent-up demand is still there, that there's a lot of extra capital sitting on balance sheets that's waiting to be deployed and we haven't gotten that full kind of run-up on that capital being put to work because of theslowdown with regards to delta so you throw all of that out, and i think this is a really difficult period, and i think investors really need to be cautious just thinking about not only what's going on with the fed and what's going on with the overall economy and we haven't spent time talking about what's going on in washington and everybody took a deep breath with regards to a little debate around the debt ceiling, but that hasn't been solved. that just has been postponed and we still haven't figured out infrastructure and biden's marquee plan and by the way, we're talking about powell, but if you look at some of these

predicting sites, his term, his second term which is trending around 90% is going down to 60%. so you throw that all in with china and we're about to go back to earnings and we're dealing with mike colt's scenario and we're at a blackout with regards to buybacks. all of those things lead us to be fairly cautious, so we're not necessarily making any dramatic moves with regard to portfolio right now. >> what i still hear you saying is the recovery is delayed and not derailed and steve liesman, i think made the best point of all. what was it -- three weeks ago when he said with the fed taper. you're still going to be buying is the fed the equivalent of qe2 plus >> exactly >> there is a lot of liquidity in the system. you just have to get by what is this rough and somewhat

uncertain patch and earnings will help you disseminate what the real state of corporate america is and what the outlook is going to be, but why would you sell -- why would you want to sell into what is only a delay and not a derail >> and that would not necessarily be our recommendation we wouldn't necessarily be selling. we'd be much more cautious with regard with deploying new capital and holding on to existing capital you're 100% right that if you look at fundamentals, earnings are still predicted to grow very rapidly. we're in a situation where earnings predict the grow and the s&p is up about 18%. so we're seeing multiple contraction right now and if you look at the underlying fundamentals, the fact of the matter is if you look at the employment report, yeah. you have very good news on the demand side with regard to cages going higher and you have issues on the supply side and the fact of the matter that the participation rate is going down

and there are areas that aren't seeing a lot of growth which could provide powell some of the air cover that i think you're alluding to that he's buying $120 billion worth of bonds every month and maybe he starts in november, but it's not like everyone is pricing in the bond market >> yeen. it appears you have more structural changes as a result of covid and maybe people fully realize and we're only at the stage now where we need to have a greater understanding of all that what else i see in your notes that is interesting and in lieu of the conversation that we're having on the show is i've got pete, i've got brynn buying more amazon still saying that growth at a reasonable price if you want to say that, but that the big five pretty much hits that mark, big four at least and that's where you want to stay, yet you say, you see faang going in the opposite direction. is it because of rates going

higher >> not necessarily if you look at the pullback from early september, we saw a 6% pullback and if you look at the market and see what was driving that pullback, 90% of that was faang and it's not surprising just because of how big a percentage of the index it is, and so if there is caution, if there is a risk off scenario, it will affect tech and it will affect faang so if we do see continued returns with regard to washington and see the fed, i think you could see weakness with regard to faang we didn't see a 20% pullback and i think the reason for that is your other point with regards to the amount of liquidity in the system and then if you look specifically at these companies that are in fang and they have stable businesses and great

balance sheets and you know what if we go through this earnings period and we go through the blackout periods we can start talking about buybacks. >> that's right. >> the idea right now is we're on track to be basically above where we were pre-covid and the anticipation is it's going to be significantly higher and historically, companies that are aggressively buying back that stock is five times the market right now they're outperforming by 7% and they have a tendency to be in the tech sector so if your view is we could be plowing along and maybe up and down and there's really no return, i could say there's a lot more leverage to play with on a technology company than a re-opening company. >> that's what i don't understand in the nuance of a mike wilson call and forgive me for putting you on the spot, you guys and you work for the same firm. >> it only works if you get a complete rollover in mega-cap

tech and how will you get a greater than 10% correction in the stock market if you don't get the leadership in the downside from those stocks it just doesn't work i don't see how. >> i think you're right. look, i think it's basic math. if you look at the percentage of how much tech or faang it is and it's representation and the index and you're calling for a 10% to 25% pullback, faangs will have to get hurt and otherwise, you'll have to see real carnage in the rest of the market and to me that doesn't seem as reasonable a concern i think he's absolutely right. we're in a situation where there are ricks with regard to earnings underperforming and there are even bigger risks, i suspect within the language of earnings around forecasts and concerns around inflation and concerns around the global supply chain and concerns with regards to labor cost and there's going to be concerns with regard to powell and tapering and what happens with

regards to rates however, if you look at the underlining fundamentals with these companies, they're still if great shape and if you can deal with this volatility and not necessarily try and time this and try to get too cute, i think you'll be okay the fundamentals of the economy and the fundamentals of the company is still very strong and no one is saying anything about us getting out of a bull market. you had jeremy segal yesterday and he refused to mention the markets and a rightful concern however, if you look at companies that have strong pricing power and the ability to leverage their balance sheet, those are technology companies >> hey, brynn, you have a question for chris toomey? >> yeah, sure. chris, great to talk to you. how do you balance mike at the strategy level calling for quite a bit of a big sell-off with you as an asset allocator and as an investor i would love to get your thoughts how you're investing dollars from an overall asset allocation with taxes and all of

those other things considered for private clients? >> yeah, look. i think it's one of the benefits of working at a place like morgan stanley there's a ton of great talent and intellectual talent and there is a definite encouragement and arguing about different points we allocate money to third parties and we are constantly talking to our clients and getting inputs and information and our investment committee makes a decision with regard to what overall view is for the clients and it's customized down to the underlying client specific portfolios and what risk they're willing to take and some of that takes into account with the taxes and sometimes that takes into consideration with regard to the only overall risk parameters, but we do have to have a view and we do respect mike and his team, but we're not completely beholden to it. >> great answer. you'll still get invited to the holiday party after that one

we appreciate you. good to see you again. >> you as well >> chris team, morgan stanley pri private wealth farmer jim, i want to come to you because jim cramer brought something in his investment club and it squares in your wheel house, and jim says they're initiating a position in eli lilly. let's pull that up buying 100 shares at $232.66. they have a $275 price target. what's interesting here is that they're exiting bristol-myers. i bring it up because you own bristol-myers and to hear that jim cramer is actually getting out of bmy which as most of you know has for some period of time, bristol-myers, the way he's spoken about that company in the past is exiting the portfolio now. yet another reason why the cnbc investing club is the place for

you. go ahead, jim. bristol-myers out, lily in >> bristol-myers, is a relatively new position. >> yeah. relatively new position. it's down big today on a phase two drug that did not meet expectation, but the reason i'm in it newly near these levels is because i think their pipeline is way undervalued and that's why it's underperformed and it's a very cheap stock with a nice dividend i think when the pipeline disappoints is exactly when you want to get in a stock like this >> you can hit the qr code rid there and go to cnbc.com/investment club this thing dropped within the last 30 minutes or so, up-to-date actionable information from jim cramer as part of our investment club. pete has unusual activity and plus there is a bullish call today on one stock that the aforementioned jim cramer says neuld be a big o the committee could debate that name and we have others, as

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that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that? >> i'm seema modi and here is your cnbc update at this hour. ance me blinken visited mexico today to meet withthe presiden lopez obrador in an effort to ease strained ties between the two nations and it comes as biden administration is trying to stem the flow of latin american migrants to the united states for more on their discussions watch the news tonight at 7:00

eastern. the number of people getting covid-19 booster shots is outpacing those of the second vaccine. of the 6.7 million shots administered from september 30th to october 6th, 2.7 million were boosters and that's compared to 2 million first doses and 2 million second doses. a seattle seahawks fan got a visit from the team's mascot when the hawk landed on his head during a pre-game ceremony the unnamed fan didn't seem too bothered and was fine following the encounter. it didn't bring much luck to the team and the los angeles rams beat them. a big hawk from the pacific northwest landed on my head i'd lose it just a little. >> i don't think you'd be the only one seema, thanks. seema modi let's talk about the moves the committee is making today. rob sechin, you bought hilton

worldwide. >> tom lee fund strategist team where we run this portfolio in conjunction with them, highly liquid company, and higher fees and low cost during a quicker than expected recovery it's up 32% year to date there's still a lot of room to run from a momentum standpoint it's widely recognized and a wall street favorite and it has an asset-like model, strong brand and diversified geographic mix. we think the street is right in this case. postponing of travel because of a persistently adverse health reaction around delta suggests that when we get back beyond this their eps is going to boom. when we added that to our ten best ideas and soldasml becaus any time we add one we take one, and i can talk about that if you want or not. >> no. let's move let me get to pete because i

want to talk about what he's done >> you've got fx, and i find this interesting china, tough it's been tough, and i hesitate and i don't want this to be a suggestion that people should just plow and follow you in because jim cramer would probably say run like 300 miles the other direction because when there was that neo upgrade yesterday that's basically what he said. why this you've seen buying in kweb do you think those stocks have bottomed, though >> it's impossible for any of us to know and we always talk about following the smart money. when we see trades come in, scott into names like baba and the etfs themselves and it's jumped into baba of late and kweb is another one of those and assure is another one of those with etfs based in china and

then the fxi which has a dom nation of the very large names i think that gives you -- at least gives me the trigger to say maybe we're at an area where we've got a little bit of upside for a while and by the way, they're sizeable trades and going out to november and buying more time than we had been seeing and these are not just weekly calls and not just two weeks out and they're going out to november and sometimes december, so they're looking for these chinese stocks to make a move to the upside i don't disagree with that they've been hammered and we all know that, but i think when we start to see, like you said, with the trifecta of three, big, huge types of etfs like this, it's got to pull you in. it's pulled me back in and it doesn't mean i'm jumping into china thinking it's the greatest thing in the world, but i'll jump on and take a bit of a ride. >> farmer jim, before i take a break, did you see a certain stock of yours today it's an auto-related company. >> you bet you want me to guess

general motors >> i just noticed it up almost 3.5% >> yeah. i think there's a lot of belief in the projections that mary barra has put out there as of wednesday on their investor update, and you know what? maybe it's right, maybe this stock does triple without breaking it up i'm sure engine one will not be quite as nice. >> cramer thought -- sorry to interrupt you, man, but cramer thinks this whole thing is too aggressive that target they put out is too aggressive why would you do that? you can't see out that far >> okay. you know what? that's an opinion that's worth having i'm not going to shoot back at jimmy. i am going to say this is a company that puts out a five-year projection and thermo fisher did it, and i will grant you, if they have missteps along the way, that will hurt them and right now there's no indication for that, and they have the

cruise robo taxis and i'll grant there is a reward with the bolt recall it looks pretty darn good for general motors and sometimes investing is simple and stay out of the way jen motors has a really wild bid to it right now, don't try to na say it just ride it calls of the day, i want to lead off with home depot and lowe's because both were downgraded today. pete, you own home depot do you think these shares will stall out? >> you know, i think they could, scott. let's be honest. take a look at that stock and see what the 52-week high all-time high is and it was 345 and it's not that far away from there. could it stall and could it pause for a little while and when i look at the valuation it's very fair and trading at a 22 p-e and they have the digital side of sales as well and supply

chain can be an issue and we all know that and that could be a factor that plays in and yeah, it could stall for a little while. while i weight i'll continue to get my selling of calls and i'll be happy because i like what the company represents and it's got growth and it might be stalled because of supply chain issues, but that is not their problem. once they start to get fixed this is a company that can rock and roll to the upside >> upgraded overweight from neutral. j.p. morgan, they take the price to 247 another investment club letter out from cramer says it could be a big call because owning it has been a nightmare bought it bad and didn't count on such awful supply chain issues and i don't think anybody expected supply chain issues to be this bad. what do you make of this call, though it's a reasonably new purchase for you. >> yeah. so it's about a-month-old, and i bought it 1% higher from where it is right now.

sometimes the investing is simple we all know about the congestion at the ports eventually it will work itself out, and i can't say in one month, and beyond that, you're still early in an economic expansion and you still have an accommodative fed with infrastructure spending which will be to the benefit of the railroads and sometimes it's simple and this is early in the economic expansion and these congestion issues will work their way out. >> up next, pete has unusual activity and as we go to break today, take a look at the s&p sectors on this friday and energy has been a monster lately and there's energy up by better than 2% and financials are right tealheth c it, real estate, maris alare in the red. we are back after this dow's flat

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baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that? >> all right, pete let's do unusual >> all right well, just coming back from las vegas it's fun to see mgm hit, scott. it was just underneath $45 if you take a look and look at year to date, one year, whatever you want to look at and take a look at mgm versus wynn and mgm versus las vegas sand, those

have not performed and mgm has a lot less exposure to macao the stock is trading just underneath 45. we had a bare of november 44 calls paying a little bit of money and they're in the money calls so they'll get a better delta move if the stock continues on the path that it is and goes to the upside, they bought 8300 of those, scott and they paid $3 for those calls and the next one is oracle and take a look at this on the chart because i don't know how many people are aware of the run over the last year, year to date. this was a stock that was 60 last year and now look at where it is, i'm lucky, it's got calls in here and not really well covered, i would say, it's been an absolute animal and the stock was trading a little over 91 today and they were buying october 22nd, so that gives you two weeks and the october 22nd calls and 30 seines and that was the 100 strike and that's something worth keeping an eye on and i'm in that trade, as

well and lastly, i'm going to give you a quick update because jon was talking about this yesterday on open-door technologies it hit on wednesday, scott, when the stock was 19 it hit thursday yesterday when the stock was trading around 20. it hit again today and they're already taking off the calls that were bought yesterday for 60 cents are getting sold for over $2 today, even more now, but they were rolling out of those calls and they were buying the october 22nd and the 22 calls in open door so we're seeing more and more of this that was trading for about a dollar at the time of this trade and it's just amazing. three days in a row they've been right, but they still want to be in the trade and it gives you much more confidence that maybe there's more fuel and this thing can go higher. >> i appreciate the update, pete, thank you. >> we have a crucial season that kicks off next week and the dow components are on deck and we'll get you ahead of that next when we come back

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age before beauty? why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin in... crepe corrector lotion... only from gold bond. big earnings kickoff next week there's the wall you have the banks which really get things going and i want to fast forward all of the way to friday, brynn. i have a lot of ownership on goldman, and what's your expectation here on gs first of all, from a performance perspective, goldman in january i want to say was around 250, and you know, it's already hit

400 this year so it's at 391 so from a stock performance its already had a monster year where geldman is so unique for me they're the preeminent investment bank. they have the arcus and the goldman relationship and it's been talked about rolling out a buy now, pay later with apple and they are with the paypal and that will be interesting if they come out with that, but i think they'll continue to execute and they have a great leadership, so i don't think there will be any surprises in there i don't know if the stock needs to digest itself because its had such a huge run this year. you have goldman which is friday and you have delta air lines which is wednesday you're right in the thick of this from the outset >> yeah. by the way, it's alaska airlines instead of delta, but these are part of the cyclicals. i am very interested in what

delta says although the airlines have been prolific in updating us on how demand is going. there is a slight uptick in demand i will listen to what delta says to see if they confirm that, but it's likely with what we're seeing in the delta surge. as far as financials go, this is asurge as far as the financials go, i mean it is a macro picture i do own individual stocks, but the macro picture is interest rates higher, yield curves steeper, loan losses down, share b buy backs up it is a powerful elixir for the financials >> i knew it was alaska but i read delta anyway. >> i know you know >> i do. pete owns delta. save me. >> i do own delta. i own it in the form of calls though part of that rationale is we have seen unusual activity coming to various names, we have seen it in jets as well, the etf. of those names i think delta has really good promise. they're all struggling from one perspective though, jimmy, and

we both know that, the business class or the business traveler that still has not come back, but i will tell you planes are full i have been on a lot of planes over the last couple of months and every single time they're full so i am seeing that and we're hearing the tsa numbers and everything else. i do like delta. i think delta can perform in this environment very well >> how are the casinos in vegas, pete were they full >> you know, that's the funny thing, scott boots on the ground, i'm walking around those casinos, especially on the weekends, absolutely packed when you are walking down the street, it felt like any other time over the last 10 or 15 years of me going to vegas but during the week it is absolutely a little bit thinner and they have problems with labor shortage, so that is a couple of issues they have to face >> yes >> i will tell you what, it was absolutely packed, scott, and the weekends are exactly what i have always seen in the past >> convention business will take a while to get up and going. lkg ou what i think you are tainabt during the week. >> yeah. >> thank you for the update on

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it is time for "ask halftime." we have a video question for the whole committee. >> hello, halftime report. it is mike in orlando, florida i keep hearing people say for the next few months cyclicals is the place to invest in i have about $1,500 not allocated in my portfolio. i don't want to put it all in one stock. i would feel more comfortable with an etf.

can you recommend a couple of efts i can look at and research so i can do the cyclical play for the next six months or longer, maybe even the best year thank you. you guys educate and are the best you are sometimes very funny i appreciate all of your help. thank you. >> sometimes sometimes? just kidding, mike thank you for the question brynn, what do you think, you have an etf pick >> i have a great etf for you. it is the symbol of sval it is a small cap value-focused etf, a factor-based etf. what it does in 10 seconds or less, it screens out for the high-debt companies, low-trading volume companies of the russell 2000 and it does a positive screen for the companies that have the highest cash flow and highest net income they equal weight it you have about 200 names, and you end up with about 43% right now small cap financials and about 17% industrials, and it is actually doubled the russell 2000 year-to-date.

>> rob >> we bought ffl that's a simple way to do it, that's xfl if you want the monster, less plain vanilla, i would buy the horizon inflation beneficiary etf which is symbol infl it is an etf that fields a portfolio of names that benefit from rising prices or cyclicality. tends to be small in mid cap trenches of cyclical or values like financials, materials and industrials. i'm convinced it is the best way to do it >> i appreciate the idea we will do final trades next only from fidelity.

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pete, i'm coming to you first for final trades i understand you just made a move >> yes, i grabbed more con okay owe philips, scott i love this name i think they're doing a great job and i think all of the energy space, i have just absolutely overwhelming amount of my positionsare now in energy, and i just keep adding to it because that's been the trend and they keep on buying. >> wow and you think as long as oil continues to go up, natural gas or what have you, not everything is directly related to oil, those stocks will continue to track it >> absolutely. and they have been the xop is a great one to follow along with the xle in terms of efts yes. >> good stuff, pete. speaking of energy let's go to hughes where brynn is. >> we will do gray scale's ethereum trust the trust was trading at a 5% discount to ethereum fourth quarter is great for crypto and all of the nfts, most are created on the ethereum

platform >> thank you for that. r r rob. >> faang lowest since 2018 >> okay. jimmy. >> i liked what i heard pete saying about vegas wynn resort is my play there >> there you go. i knew you were out there recently, too. have a great weekend, everybody. see you on the other side. "the exchange" starts now. thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans, here is what is ahead this hour. jobs, the economy adding only 194,000 jobs in september, enhanced unemployment benefits ended, most kids are back to school, there are millions of jobs openings. why aren't more roles being filled what does it mean for stocks, bonds and the taper we'll ask. we're talking tesla with an analyst bullish on the stock for what he calls the company's apple-esqu