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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  October 15, 2021 3:00pm-5:00pm EDT

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not having held on to it now seeing the major price run. >> they'll reach out to you. i promise. >> i hope so >> have a great weekend. >> thank you for watching "power lunch. enjoy the sunshine but first "closing bell. don't go outside just yet. welcome to "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost at new york stock exchange stocks rallying across the board as we get set to close out the trading week. >> happy friday. i'm sara eisen let's look at what's driving the action goldman sachs a big winner in the dow after a blowout earnings report this morning. september retail sales number this morning strong and travel names powering the sector higher after the white house announced to lift international travel
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restrictions november 9. something you have been waiting for. >> i know. i feel it's timely we mentioned earlier it in the week i hope shep wasn't watching. five more hours at least. >> through the end of the news. >> on the news, david klein joins us to talk about the acquisition of an edibles company. plus the fda is out with new guidance for johnson & johnson's covid boosters we'll talk to dr. ofer levy. >> with a great head shot. the big stories in this final hour, mike santoli tracking the market action. meg tirrell with the latest on the vaccines mike, respectable follow through today. >> absolutely. more than one half of a percent upside after yesterday's big surge. has climbed, the s&p 500, above
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the 50-day average stopping yesterday. the next thing to look for is one month ago september 15th in the 4480 range this market hustles and symmetrical with the low early last week and have stair stepped up from there and can't guarantee an all clear but a lot of the things to want to see lining up to say that you got a pretty plausible seasonable low and they are getting into place and the market never really did let go of the cyclical bias. look at the chart of things geared to rae covering economy and slowdown trades. this is consumer discretionary all equal weighted no two stocks in a sector dominate as you can see, good separation all year
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now mostly sideways for the cyclicals and nosing above that consumer discretionary it of can get to a new high and the s&p financials today getting to a new all-time high and seen a rekindling of the excitement in some of the most speculative parts of the market. here we have fintech etf down a lot. from recent highs, actually more like february, late january and another scoop higher not to say it's the leadership area and noticeable in the last couple of days it is not just been the economically geared stuff working. it is inclusive. there's not been a clear growth or value bias coming in to month to date let's say in october it's much more before people rebuilding equity exposure opposed to picking the spots >> but the retail sales number today, which was really strong we saw growth from last month in
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pretty much every category especially electronics and good for book sales is the consensus now that we are over the delta hump and the economy is rebounding and accelerating again >> i think the conclusion here from those numbers is that the slowdown in the late summer wasn't as slow as we thought coming to inflation we measured the sales based on the prices and volumes and inflation is not either or. both things are working. people are spending heavily or were in the credit card swipe numbers tell you that even now and i think people say maybe we don't have to revise down third quarter gdp as much as we thought we did it was reassuring. seeing the bond market respond
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pricing in maybe a relatively earlier fed rate hike initially into next year. >> thank you. the fda out with guidance for the covid booster. meg? >> hi. the fda advisory panel voting to recommend that everybody over 18 with a single j&j shot and two months out should get a second dose there's debate over whether this should be called a booster or a two-dose vaccine from the get-go because the two-dose data boosts protection above 90% an adviser saying it's hard to recommend a single dote seeing this available data. now what they are debating and discussing is the nih presentation of mixing and matching and this is fairly small study looking at the and body results when you do that
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and there's frustration for people with the j&j vaccine because there's a takeaway that boosted with an mrna booster might be better than a second j&j shot we don't know whether or not the fda will broaden the recommendation to switch brands or if folks have to theic with the first brand of the first time and likely goes through the fda next week and then folks can get boosters of moderna. authorized for the pfizer booster. and it's not clear right now whether teem are going to be able to switch on the question of moderna, some news driving that stock down today, "the wall street journal report"ing the fda delayed the review of that vaccine for 12 to 17-year-olds moderna applied for this back in june and then the safety irps of my owe carditis, the very rare risk for the mrna vaccines and
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cleared pfizer down to 12. moderna's has still been essentially waiting there. "the wall street journal report"ing the fda delaying this to look at the heart risk and influenced by other countries' decisions not to give the moderna vaccine down to folks of 12 investment community saying people are worried this positions moderna's vaccine to have more side effects but the data looks similar between the two vaccines and that's weighing on the shares as of right now. guys >> meg pivoting back to the recommend daises or lack of boosters, i wonder because the way in which this is delayed and confused in the messaging, people might just not get a booster at all and whether that might be a good thing because we might not need them as much or at least not the same urgency that we had to get vaccinated in the first place. someone like me with j&j in the
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first place and hopefully touch wood relatively healthy might be like wasn't needed at all. >> that's a really good question essentially right now the recommendations is going to be everybody with a single shot at least two months ago recommended to get a second dose of j&j. you are right. the big argument for j&j is the protection appears to be very steady it doesn't wane to the same degree that the other vaccines do and a discussion over whether we are coming down from this delta peak and there will be less urgency of boosters in general so that's a really great question. >> looking forward to talking to you and the fda advisory panel member next hour thank you. straight ahead, canopy growth is buying wannabrands we'll talk about how the deal
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could impact the bottom line dow's up 357 off the highs
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welcome back canada celebrating the three-year anniversary of cannabis legalization. let's get to frank holland with a look at the cannabis companies
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performance. hard to believe it's been three years. >> reporter: yeah. tilray is the only canadian cannabis company in the green for 2021 as the companies continue to adjust to canada becoming a recreational cannabis market 95% of retail sales in downtown toronto. cannabis flower, aka weed and pre-rolled joints with weed dominate the market in canada. edibles, vapes and drinkables about 20% of the market and been an issue cannabis prices have fallen by 30% since the start of the pandemic 4 of the 5 top canadian stocks down after surgesin the beginning o the year on hopes of u.s. legalization tilray ceo believes adoption of medical cannabis will driver revenues. >> it is the opportunities in medical care and something we
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focus on in a big way whether it's oils, drops, liquids, topicals >> reporter: u.s. legalization is still unclear even with chuck schumer pushing for reform see here on the map it is a patchwork. with 46 states legalizing a form of cannabis or decriminalizing many feel it's inevitable to happen again three years up in canada. >> frank, thank you so much for that. for more let's talk to one of the major canadian players, can by growth buying wana and david klein joins us now in an exclusive interview. want to get to the wana acquisition in a moment but first a recent big picture
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question recent bank of meameri following a meeting with you i don't framed the mood and optimism as long term and more cautious short term. is that a fair summary of your current outlook? >> i think, wilf, i always want to be cautiously optimistic in general. we have to be able to execute on what's in front of us and be prepared to enter the u.s. market while we premiumize the portfolio. that's what we're doing with this transition. >> in materials of the acquisition, edibles obviously is a fast growing market is this the number one player? >> it is across north america. it's a very complimentary add to our portfolio of thc companies including our multistate
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operators. it's a fabulous company with great brands founded by nancy whiteman literally in the kitchen and created a brand that resonates well with consumers and the ecos fits with the company and excited to have that brand in the portfolio. >> but you're not exactly acquiring. you don't get the sales until ebitda and the other knock is to pay a high price and not necessarily the number one share as you just said. >> yeah. look it is in fact the number one brand across north america and we believe that we paid a very attract i ive price. this is a profitable business that operates out of colorado and into 12 other states and as relates to the ownership rights it is very similar in a way to
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our transaction where we effectively own the business and don't close until it's a federal per misability event but can continue to grow and enhance our position in the u.s. between now and per missability. >> some people in various analysts' notes suggest that other brands are ahead how do you frame wana as number one? >> we are looking at total dollar share in the category across north america so we're including canada in the met ricks and the u.s. we think that edibles are a way to bring new consumers into the category and it's a way to increase the number of occasions for cannabis so again we really think wana is a strong play to
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add to the portfolio. >> david, just on the stock it is trading around $13 a share. this is a $67 stock before the pandemic what has happened with market share in canada and with the stock price and do you still have the full backing of cone steal constellation? >> we absolutely do and there's value to be created with the stock at canopy growth we have -- we have built out this ecosystem that will position us well to capitalize on u.s. permissibility and brand building we also have a strong balance sheet and continue to have a strong balance sheet we have the u.s. cbd business which continues to grow share and we think we're well positioned to create value for the shareholders in this
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marketplace while i know that they remain concerned about the timing of cannabis laegalizatio but not necessarily if it will happen. >> agree what about profitability >> the back half of this fiscal year ending march. >> is that on track? >> we are still ontrack for that i think the caveat is that profitability for the company investing to build out the u.s. routes to market profitability will depend upon the ability to drive the top line and excited to grow market share in the markets so that's the real test. >> david klein, thank you for joining us. >> thank you we have 40 minutes to go before the closing bell. take a look. pretty strong today. up about 375 on the dow. just off the session highs s&p up it is the cyclically sensitive
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economy stocks doing well. having a good day. tech joins the party with the nasdaq up. when we come back, talking about black entrepreneur day with day monday john and give us the take on the state of retail and whether his companies are impacted by the supply chain bottlenecks. check out the top searched tickers. goldman sachs after a good quarter. a nice reaction. apple, virgin galactic on the latest delay down 17%. tesla which frequently appears in the top 5 up 2% today we'll be right back.
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welcome back "shark tank's" daymond john hosts a second annual black entrepreneur day here and gave away $250,000 in grants in conjunction with the naacp
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welcome back to the show good to see you. >> thank you for always having me. >> so as it relates to access to capital and resources for black entrepreneurs is an improvement after a year and a half ago around the death of george floyd? how much has it improved >> slightly? there's other criteria now but it takes time to catch up but there is a great attitude to give access to the small businesses, black businesses and brown businesses i'm seeing a slow change and this is a typical example on how all the companies give away the grants that did not take any percentage of these black company's businesses and seeing a slow but steady growth.
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>> what about support beyond the initial funding? does that come with it how critical is that >> absolutely. mentorship is critical businesses are not structures and the fundamentals aren't there to be able to take in capital so that's extremely critical it is not just money it is the operations. >> to any entrepreneurs watching, what is the at vice of a common mistake people make when they make a business pitch to you and looking for investment >> a common mistake is not having an education and thinking the money will solve everything. money highlight it is weaknesses if you have social media conversion that's slow or not clicking spending more money isn't going to do that if getting the inventory is not good you have a lot of inventory that sits bad. overfunding often is the biggest mistake instead of learning and
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understand the product and who your customer is. >> i wanted to ask about the business that you started now almost 30 years ago fubu and it's having a renaissance. how did that happen? >> absolutely. listen as of -- we just touched on what happened last year people are sense tiff of supporting black businesses and fashion comes back and doing well in germany and philippines and other places and i think it is like the first hash tag of clothing and kids relate to it and we love the resurgence of it. >> wanted to ask your take on the supply chain pressures to see globally really including of course in the u.s. does that come as a surprise to you or were you kind of seeing this problem build through the various supply chains that you
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look at and manage yourself? >> i have been seeing this problem build, problematic and great for american manufacturing and setting up systems in the u.s. to not be as the mercy. if people align down the chain i can't deliver a shirt no matter how much raw goods i have if the buttons aren't there i can't deliver to you when you talk about complex things such as industrial materials or stove, various things you have thousands of parts and what will happen is create a lot of challenges, a lot of probables for the consumer and the retailer. people do not like uncertainty. >> overall, you invest in small and mid-size businesses how would you gauge the sentiment with the strong demand what is it like? >> it is challenging you have goods in a lot of things increasing by 300%.
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you see retailers are starting to say we throw good black friday two weeks earlier because we don't want the customers disappo disappointed that's the biggest challenge more importantly is high they more experts with the relationships overseas where they can depend on who they have dealt with for ten, 20, 30 years and seeing skilled workforce really being employed to help solve the logistical challenges. >> always good to get color from you. thank you. >> thank you for supporting black sentrepreneur day shares of virgin galactic falling hard today after announcing to push back the launch of a full commercial service private astronaut trip
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the stock down 17% jb hunt hitting high levels on the beat this morning seeing double digit revenue growth across all segments. up more than 8%. jim cramer wrote about it today. to learn more about the stock picks and sign up head to or point the phone at the qr code on the screen and take you straight there. time for a news update with rahel solomon. >> thank you. minnesota will use the national guard to help with staffing challenging at the hospitals. the troops to be deployed is yet to be determined but says that more than 400 patients are waiting for hospital beds to open up across the state. near san antonio, texas, searching continues for a woman. two cars were swept off a bridge
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yesterday. five people were rescued a 5-year-old girl died trapped in a car a 52-year-old relative of the girl is missing. near charleston, north carolina, a schoolhouse is being moved to a new home. only school left in town that have been designated for african-american why is the group plan to restore it and turn it into a place for sharing seminars of former slaves that took classes there you are up to date back to you. >> thank you we are back up to essentially session high just the high was 408 but more than a percent of gains there for that index s&p and nasdaq up less than that and nice progress on yesterday's bhig rally and a solid week almost in the books. the ceo of zelman and associates gives us the picks in
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the housing space and the fda is delaying the decision on the moderna vaccine for teen just we'll talk to fda vaccine advisory committee voting member dr. levycoming up. the 10-year yield around $1.58 today. we'll be right back.
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we are tracking for the best week for the s&p since july 23
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up almost 2% there's the sector heat map of wh what's working right now in the market cyclicals are doing the best up there with consumer discretionary. industrials, energy, technology, materials everywhere that's green. what's lagging today, defensive groups like utilities, real estate and communication services up next, i vi zelman with the biggest risk in the housing mashlgs and the white house says it will lift covid restrictions for fully vaccinated foreign travelers starting next month. we'll discuss when we come back. . you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade.
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home builders out performing the market rallying 30%. the group's strong performance comes as the hot housing market is expected to get hotter. goldman sachs out with a new note forecasting home prices surging another 16% in 2022. let's bring in ivy zelman, known for calling the top of the housing market in 2005 and author of "give me shelter." it is great to have you on the show, ivy. welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> do you think that the hot housing market gets hotter >> no. i don't. actually i think the market is showing moderation and evening more evident as rates back up and the continued upward pressure on
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home prices which is not sustainable is impacting affordability. we see incentives creep back in the market and consumers question not only can they afford it but do they want to buy at the top of the market >> you see this as an inflection point? how far does it fall from here >> i think there's a bigger question overall the housing market prior to covid was doing fairly well with a tale of two markets and we are more cautious and the view that the report we just published we talk about the fact that the united states, the overall population growth and u.s. household growth is slowests on record and population growth is as low as since the 1930s. we don't believe we have a deficit. every forecasters is saying a
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deficit. we believe we are overbuilding by 20% to normalize household demand so we have a very different contrarian view but because of the investors it is clouded by dual ownership and institutional capital coming boo the marketplace so very different s perspective but what changes it is if rates rise to 4% that will complet completely halt the housing market and got risk in store especially as we know that the fed is likely going to start tapering buying mortgage backed securities. >> that is so interesting. are there periods in the last few decades that are comparable feeling good at the moment and could turn based on the factors you outlined
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>> there are quite a number of parallels to the last boom and today the boom that we are seeing is different from the perspective of equity in the game we have so much money flowing into the market and people can invest as institutions think about the asset class to invest. and right now what we are seeing is a tremendous amount of people chasing the same markets, buying and bidding up land. land prices according to our land development survey across the united states up over 30% and i think that's being driven by the build to rent operators developing and the for sale builders and parallels in the amount of i think euphoria in the market and complacency that the market can slow or moderate so i think we are setting up for profitability to be pressured
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but nothing like the great crisis at least as it relates to the u.s. housing market. >> having said that we have just shown the charts of the home builders going up. what do you do with the names? are there any you like >> we covered more than the builders so we would be more on the sidelines on the home birlders we like the repair and remodel march. do you have the re-fi boom the backlash is mortgage rates at 4% two thirds are locked in below 4% and just to give you perspective in 2018 that same number 39% so think of the homeowners with tremendous equity in the homes and we think it's much more compelling so we like names like sherwin williams, armstrong world. armstrong is one that's benefiting we think from strong pricing power and much more
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exposed and we like repair and model and constructive on non-res. we have several names we like and would be on the sidelines on the builders and if the mortgage rates rise we would be negative on the builders but right now we are on the sidelines. >> i wonder what your perspective is on the way in which trance acting for residential property changed over the last decade and particularly over the pandemic and whether we might see a long term pickup in transactions and how readily people change the homes as opposed to past decades as the cost falls and the viewing the houses without necessarily having to visit them. >> you know. i respectfully disagree. i don't think it's different this time and all driven by free money and right now it is a big party and everybody's wasted and enjoying the fact that rates are
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so low and everybody can buy a second home. why not? mortgage rates, you buy a two handle on a mortgage rate and absolutely afford to get another home so there's dual dwellings in the united states people with three homes. vacation homes rental homes that they are getting a nice cash on cash return seeing rates rise changes that significantly. remember what happened in '18 not that long ago when mortgage rates from 4 to 500% i don't think it is going to change that dynamic. i think that mobility is going to be very negatively impacted by the tremendous re-fi boom to disincentivize homeowners in the united states to move. we always talk about real estate there's trance actions realtors like to talk about the
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three "d." death, default and divorce the fourth would be the discretionary sale and then we jokingly call it the diaper sales. people need more space and recognize that mobility is impacted on discretionary purchases slowing if rates start rising. >> that's what i wanted toask about the demographic question i feel like there's a consensus right now among the bulls on the home builders and the homing market that millennials are aging and will keep this sort of pandemic fueled buying going for many years to come do you dispute that? >> i think we have to appreciate that home ownership troughed in early '16 and rates accelerated fueled by millennials and looking at the census numbers of this year we are seeing the young adults between 20 to 39
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increasingly living with their parents and we expected the numbers would have now at least come down because the great financial crisis it made sense to us with a high level of unemployment but looking at what happened we saw the numbers increase call it 20% in 2010 to nearly 24% in 2020 seeing multigenerational living and we think it's people unable to afford or delaying marriage or the change in the dynamics of the population with today the caucasians are becoming a minority and many other ethnicities live in a multigenerational way so we don't think the millennials will continue to fuel the demand believing that it is already been realized so you think about the millennial and the oldest and call it 40 range right now i think that you have to appreciate that people have been in the market and we saw that start to really expand when
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builders started to build out and go out into the third ring of the market and seeing growth for five years and starting to see that peak out but the growth you see right now is really driven by the incremental demand from nonprimary buyers on top of primary buyers. >> ivy zelman, thank you so much. >> thank you have a great weekend. >> you, too. >> really interesting. bearish. >> bearish on the demonstgraphics the oversupply. bitcoin hits the highest level since april and gold man with a beat. those stories in the market zone next paola needs a parachute.
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welcome back right now the "closing bell" "market zone." commercial free coverage of the action going into the close. mike santoli is here to break down the moments of the trading day and today ceo barbara duran with us, as well let's kick things off with the broader market dow, s&p and nasdaq all on track for weekly gains and maybe off the highs but -- >> because he brought the damn hat here and - >> discussing. >> told me to put it on and ruined everything. >> going to put it on? >> still above 35,000. safely so. we are okay. >> i was going to say -- >> put it away. >> nice build on yesterday's
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gains. >> yeah. >> very strong weekly gains. >> generally encouraging putting distance in the lows in here led also probably a good thing and checking off the boxes we have an options expiration today. seeing a bleed lower so we'll see if maybe it's enough for now type conclusion up pretty decently off the lows. really 200 s&p points from the lows a week ago monday so maybe have to chop around a little bit the bears not out of the game but looks relatively encouraging. >> barbara, you are optimistic and constructive on the market are you putting money to work off the september correction >> yes you know me too well, sara inflation will continue to rear the head concerned. that's the ball rolling in
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september. correction is due. i think inflation concerns are real except that because they lasted longer. but i think they will come down as the -- two third of the inflation number is used cars, rental cars, new cars and won't stay high forever. wage questions are a question but -- it's something to keep an eye on i think fundamentals are intact. rates could back up a little bit more by year end or next year and in absolute terms they won't be high and continue to see good earnings growth. peak earnings in the second quarter. i do -- you are right. i'm constructive on the market and seeing volatility which we have all yearlong. >> say goldman sachs who reported this morning, both comfortably ahead of expectations revenue up
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the beat led by investment banking income up 88% year over year. m&a advisory drove that beat that was up 225% year over year. the big question remains how long that continues. here's david solomon. >> with respect to the deal activity there's dry powder out there. it feels at the moment given the continued accommodative monetary and discall policy environment and the reacceleration of the economy coming out of the pandemic that will run and will watch carefully and will have speed bumps along the way. >> equity revenue 3.1 billion ahead of forecast by a billion and contained financing revenue.
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asset management came back down to earth as expected after an extraordinary print last quarter. consumer and wealth management gr continues to grow. capital markets driven you keep asking the question how long that sustains and does it get as high a multiple as the more sticky fee revenue ant cannot turn the nose up at the set of result just up a healthy 4% it is built throughout the session. >> dollar for dollar the market is not paying up so strong that it's accounted for in book value. you know 1.4% book is where we trade at right now. at the peak in '06 going two times above book surpassing 20% where we didn't think we'd get there again it's difficult to project.
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>> one thing about the group today is wells fargo up 6.7% the question was coming in to earn and ahead will the group as a whole rerate and a new era for banks? never the moon shots like shopify but steady and the reaction of wells fargo almost a day late suggests rerating. >> i agree builds book value and part of the story. >> bitcoin also having a strong day. crossing 60,000 first time since april. kate rooney with more on the rally. kate in. >> bitcoin is booming into the weekend. this is a continuation of the shift in sentiment we saw really start in october optimism of a bitcoin etf. the s.e.c. will allow a u.s. first etf bitcoin. the industry is clamoring for this product since 2017. a source telling cnbc the s.e.c.
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is not likely to block the etfs proposed by proshares and invesco and debut on tuesday we got this from cnbc pro today. investor michael bury saying he is not betting against cryptocurrency and not sure even despite the chatter of that on twitter and believes they are in a speculative bubble and read that story on for cnbc pro. back to you. >> sounds like a good one. thank you. two minutes to go in the trading day. off the highs and still going strong >> softened up since the best levels of the morning. net positive you have more turnover to the upside to the downside reasonably good to see
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this is for you. the yen is falling apart and usually bullish for risk assets. surged obviously u.s. growth and fed expectations is part of the story and a general liquidity and risk appetite. see the prior risk march into april in acceleration mind set the volatility index did give way as you expect. down around 16 so pretty must have normalizing back to the september lows seems like we have completed that spike at least for now. >> just under one minute left and round out with over 2 pat2% the day up 1% on the dow the best performing index today. nasdaq up .5%.
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the dollar's flat despite rising quite comfortably against the japanese yen as mike said and more interestingly the yields, pulled back early in the week, ending 10-year at 1.57 at the close up 0.75% on the s&p 500. that caps the dow's best week since back in june. i'm sara eisen here with wilfred frost and mike santoli more than 1% gain there for the dow. it was a strong week closing up about 1.6% overall for the week what drove the action today? the cyclical stocks tied to the economy. better goldman earnings.
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unh is second biggest contributor. united health. s&p up almost 2% for the week best week since july nasdaq up on the day and also a big winner on the week technology part of the rally story on the week and small caps lagged today closing down. coming up, a fda advisory committee meeting on vaccines voting to recommend the booster shot for j&j vaccine why they're delaying a guidance. a lot more to talk about with the fda advisory committee first barbara duran is with us and larry adam joins the conversation welcome. but first, mike, rounding out a solid week where it feels like people calmed down about the tapering and then inflation story and looked to better growth. >> yeah.
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one of the conclusions is that all the issues to name pressuring the market, the policy dysfunction and then the coming of the fed taper co coexisting with them and then the economic numbers getting momentum behind them and all those things together sentiment gotten a little bit overnegative coming into the week i think the things are constructive and the market acted well off the low it's done fine i do think it's positive finally short term treasury yield's the big story because they shot higher 2-year note highest since march of 2020 and shows you that market's pricing fed rate hike in september seems it's a long way away and
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for the right reasons and the markets can live with it >> we had a question whether earnings season disappoint or surprise to the upside the banks helped that sector this week. >> that is true. what the banks indicated is consumer is healthy and strong demand exploded and businesses are healthy. so the key thing i think investors and i'm looking forward to is forward guidance to figure out what's a sustainable growth rate. we have supply shortages margin concerns. what's the pe. i think that's going to be very telling in the earnings season and i don't expect disappointment i think it's good, not as strong as the second quarter but that's the key is what we try to figure out what are the earnings going
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forward. >> larry, if you look at the winners of the week, materials, technology right up there in the top four i don't know if technology fits in the bucket but do you stick with the banks and the cyclical plays? >> if you look at what's coming up in the macro headlines this economy is starting to rejennerize and will see the economy do well and we like the cyclicals sectors. energy, financials, consumer discretionary, communication services and will continue to do well one other thing is that a lot of these companies are really taking care of this supply chain c constraints that everybody's talking about and by the time we get to the middle of next year we won't talk about that and that will be a positive for
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earnings longer term. >> what do you think of with stagflation? >> i think it's overblown to be honest with you. you are seeing an upgrade in growth whether that's retail sales today. whether you've seen better employment conditions. yesterday the jobless claims i think growth is going to be fine and i do think that we are in the process of peaking when it comes to inflationary pressures. companies aren't standing by doing nothing. they do everything in their power because if you are a ceo you have to maximize the sales so they do everything they can to get the constraints unbound so stagflation is overdone and getting a goldilocks for this economy. >> the white house will lift restrictions on foreign
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travelers who are fully vaccinated phil lebeau looking at that impact on the airlines and a good positive move to see. >> they have been waiting for this a long time and we saw a pop in the airline stocks this morning. they gave most back in the day reminder november 8 fully vaccinated europeans can come in here to the united states in anticipation u.s. carriers saying we're adding flights. look at the numbers we had krurched by an airline consulting firm. in 2020, 3.7 million seats 2021 more this year as the u.s. said, yeah, you can go to europe and then in 2022 we see the increase not quite to 2019 levels but darn close looking at american and united american is resuming dallas to
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paris in december because it knew that this change was coming from the u.s. side of things and then with united as reported yesterday adding four new routes next year into europe. we had oag crunch the numbers by country in terms of where the most seats are added next summer uk is where most of the new seats or seats coming back into the market are coming from the quite. >> i was going to say coming back because lots of airlines used to have ten flights a day down to three at the moment. >> correct. >> interesting to see by 2022 how many - >> you do have -- right. you have a couple new entrants compared to 2019 jetblue and i have heard they are getting strong demand for flights into great britain so i think -- i wouldn't be surprised to see other entrants say now we have this demand is it time to
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think about perhaps adding transatlantic routes >> everybody's preparing for the frost wedding. >> there we go. >> thank you >> 25 million capacity. >> should cover it. >> stagflation doesn't mean bachelor parties are more expensive. >> funny stag hotel stocks are rallying on that travel news seema mody with the details. >> even for the hotels it is capacity they push the airlines to increase capacity which in turn they say will expand the pool of international travelers. searches for trips to the u.s. spiked by around 32% since late september. two largest hotel operators trading at new highs and hilton on pace for the boast mochts since february up 10%. the first wave of foreign
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travelers will be for family reasons and the question there will be to check into a hotel or stay with a relative the business traveler that the hotels depend on likely hot expected to make the way here until early next year and estimates could be brought up. and covid cases trend lower, sara. >> seema, thank you. barb, so the hotel stocks have been rallying with the return of demand on the restrictions being eased but what about the labor shortage and they have to bring back the most workers and pay higher wages and payment? should investors pay attention to that? >> you have to it's true in the surface category just finding workers. they got to pay more a lot of these firm that is the labor costs are a significant
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percent. we are excited about being released out of bondage but something that investors will pay attention to might get careful with stocks in the hotels near the highs. it will be tough. >> another fact to be that i think is an encouraging sign is when yields have risen it's not derailed tech stocks and when flattened as it did it didn't derail the bank stocks and shows a breadth of buying the pullback. >> of course the yields on the longer ends off the highs and never know if it's an acceleration to the upside to come back and parent of that again is because you did have a nice kind of big pullback in the nasdaq 100 set yourself up for some relief and i don't think it's over but not the single input that we have for a while. >> this is a perfect combo yields rising a little bit to
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reflect higher growth. the doctor weakened and rose against the yen and puts the mark in a better mood. >> i agree even after the rebound we have had 40% of the s&p 500 stocks down 10% from the high only 150 of the s&p stocks just about as of an hour ago when i looked are down less than the s&p itself is from its high which is like 1.8% the point being the majority of stocks took more punishment than the overall undex did and set up for surprise in valuation support. >> larry, how do you feel about the broader u.s. averages? plenty of room to build from here >> yeah. we are optimistic. we have a target of 4600 the errand of the year and 4900 end of the next year back to the previous question with interest rates higher we call that thoses of the market
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everybody wants do get behind a story that the rising rates hurt the equity market. we began with the 10-year treasury below 1%. today at 1.5% and the market up 20% and as long as the economy is strong which we think it will that will continue to be a catalyst for better earnings growth and drive the markets higher. >> everybody's optimistic. happens after a 2% gain on a week. >> barbara, larry, thank you for joining us. >> thank you still ahead, a fda advisory committee recommending booster shots for j&j's vaccine. a committee member joins us and netflix shares up 20% since the beginning of august. an analyst bearish on the stock on whether investors should take profits eaahd of the earnings next week.
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fda advisory committee panel voting for johnson & johnson's booster shot for those 18 and over two months after the first dose joining us now is dr. ofer levy a voting member of the advisory panel and director of precision vaccines program at before's children's hospital. thank you so much for joining us again. >> thank you for having me >> i guess the decision was clear on the j&j vaccine but there's still moving parts more broadly as to where we end up and when we might get those decisions across all different vaccines in the mix and match aspec aspects. what are your thoughts and the cdc meeting soon >> thank you for that. it was a busy week for the fda advisory panel to be clear
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we are an advisory committee the deliberations are public and voted 100% in favor of a johnson & johnson booster for those 18 and up that goes to fda to make the final determination and if they give the thumb's up it goes to cdc as you say and how to implement the policy at the same time as you know after the vote we stayed on to discuss new data from an nih study not yet published but provided on a public server that suggest potential benefits of mixing and matching vaccine platforms. th that's still early phase data and dr. marx director of vaccines at fda did hold out the possibility, the possibility that we will convene in the future to discuss the possibility of authorizing some sort of mix and match approach.
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>> do you think all of this is happening quick enough im imi'm not doubting the busy ness and an encouraging way is cases come down and might we be in a position where the recommendations not so much come late but not as necessary and people will only get a booster if they really want one opposed to the mad rush to get the first shots. >> thank you we are at a delicate time and making progress against the pandemic rates coming down and immunizations coming up. we don't know what the winter brings and fda is trying to move as quickly as they can i think it's a balance because the public wants the know that safety comes first we have to keep an eye on safety data and keep up with the different vaccines and the best
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ways to deploy them. it is a delicate time in the pandemic we had two meetings this weekend. thursday was the moderna booster. it is like old news. things are moving quickly and we have another meeting on the books to look at the pfizer product for 5 to 11 years. that will be a very interesting conversation. >> i don't understand how you're figuring out the age recommendations on the booster shots. there was a headline in the last hour and quoted considering the possibility to lower to the booster to 40 and over you have it approved for people in settings like health care workers like any age and why can't anyone above 18 get a booster? >> thank you for that. as you know those are conversations related to the
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pfizer product which are a different platform from the j&j and with the mess eng everything vaccine which are excellent there was concern with the youngest age groups regarding potential risks of heart inflammation we call that myocarditis and with teenagers and young male ta teenagers there is some increased risk usually self resolves and going to younger and younger age groups they're loss at personal risk of severe covid and somewhat more risk of the heart condition. so it's a risk/benefit analysis and why you see that deliberation i will add that the presentation by the israeli team was very important. the ministry of health of israel presented yesterday at the moderna meeting and those data were very helpful.
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>> just zoom out from the decisions. how do you envision the boosters working? this is something to do annually like a flu shot? or is this finite? >> so that's -- you have touched a critical question. that is the question we are very data driven and will have to see how the winter goes and what the durability of immunity is and going to boosters observing that more and more breakthrough infections particularly in older individuals. that's why we go to boosters now and have to see now with the boosters what's the durability after a booster? we don't know. we have to study that and keep an eye on the dynamics of the pandemic so stay tuned. >> what about the treatments your assessment of how effective those will beli in making sure e
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don't go into a full blown spike in cases and deaths and hospitalizations >> as you know we have remdesivir it's not the slam dunk we were hoping it would be we give it in the hospital sick on oxygen with coronavirus and the impact might be modest merck as you know announced that they have a helpful drug more effective than that. that will have to go through the fda process and let's see. it is welcomed news and have to have fda look at the data. that's a different committee than mine and we would welcome it if it's safe and effective. >> is the goal with booster to prevent infection or severe disease and hospitalization? doesn't the original vaccine hold up relatively well for a long period of time against severe disease >> correct
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you are on the money to the extent they remain effective after the primary series they're most effective to keep you out of the hospital and the icu and from being killed by the deadly virus that is the good news. with time we see some breakthrough of moderate disease and mild disease and you could say it's mild/moderate we don't want people to have that second of all people with that can spread it to others so in order of operations the priority is to keep people out of the hospital but to reduce the chance to be infected is wonderful because that can get us to herd immunity. the israeli data presented yesterday they use the pfizer product suggestioed with the bos ores i believe to 12 they start to see herd immunity
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they might be reaching herd immunity that's fascinating and will have to keep an eye on those data. >> fingers crossed on that we could talk to you for an hour thank you for your time. >> thank you have a good weekend. >> you, too. up next, a rising inflation fears starting to have an impact on consumer sentiment? mike santoli looking at that plus a conference on fighting cyber crime with 30 countries cyber crime with 30 countries thisn the deputy national security adviser on how they could affect the global world ons? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does. uhhh... could we adjust our plan... ...yeah, like if we buy a new house? mmmm... and our son just started working. oh! do you offer a complimentary retirement plan for him? as in free?
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stocks finishing high iron the day and the week let's go to mike santoli looking at consumer sentiment and fears about inflation. is it hurting consumers? >> seems to be another downside surprise. around 70. similar to levels in 2011. another time where we had rising gasoline prices if not general inflation. this is the one-year estimate about what they think inflation will look like very sharp doesn't mean it's predictive
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a spike in 2011. didn't pan out five-year forecast is not as scary but that is what is weighing on the attitudes. take a look at more realtime data on travel or entertainment spending in general. this is from bank of america credit card information. so this is the two-year gain over 2019 levels about 7% it's well positive on the two-year basis got a spike in recent weeks. this is 7-day rolling. people are spending. maybe they're not happy about what they pay but it's a psychological effect opposed to necessarily being where they don't think the economy is in good shape. >> definitely some very positive comments on the outlook for the consumer this week and the banks. thank you. apple set to hold a big event next week. f find out what new products could be binehd the curtain when we come back.
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welcome back time for a cnbc news update with shepard smith. >> hi. from the news on cnbc, the confessed parkland high school shooter set to plead guilty to
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all charges related to that massacre that's according to his lawyer in a florida courtroom today on valentine's day of 2018 the man opened fire inside the high school, 14 students and 3 staff members killed 17 others wounded. prosecutors say they plan to seek the death penalty. u.s. borders set to open up for international travel the white house announcing foreign travellers to start to visit beginning november 8 but everyone who comes must be fully vaccinated with shots approved by the world health organization it includes the uk and most of the eu. former president clinton said on the mend now sources tell nbc news he had a urinary tract infection that spread to the bloodstream. he is responding well to treatment and that they hope to have him back home soon.
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tonight a potentially shutdown of almost all hollywood productions, tv, movies, everything the strike threat on the news after jim cramer 7:00 eastern. back to you. >> thank you up next, deputy national security adviser for cyber anne neuberger on white house's strategy plus netflix is set to report next week. hear from an analyst who thinks competition concerns could cut stk by nearly half over the next year. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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a new report from the treasury department shows suspected ransomware payments for the first half of 2021 coming in at $590 million surpassing the total of last year coming on the heels of a white house holding a conference with 30 countries this week to find solutions towards combatting ransomware. deputy national security adviser for security anne neuberger helped conduct that meeting. thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> notably russia was not in that group meeting what came out of it? was there anything in terms of action, consensus being formed from the friends of the u.s. on the cyber issue? >> it takes a network to fight a
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network and the president has made this a priority and in the united states we have a strategy that includes disrupting networks, resilience and diplomacy so the purpose is to take the strategy and bring together a coalition of countries, over 30 and the european union to coordinate the fight against ransomware. >> what about russia how has russia been behaving since we saw that putin/biden meeting and apparently there were some assurances made about it have things calmed down? >> president biden and president putin established a high level channel to discuss ransomware specifically and for the u.s. to have ran did and direct exchanges regarding that that was the core reason when convening the coalition we didn't include russia because we have a dedicated channel to discuss directly with the white house and kremlin level and we
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have had direct, candid and professional ongoing exchanges and conveyed information and the russians committed to act and looking forward to seeing the action as you know we have said that we look to see progress over weeks and months we are truly looking to see that action but the candid, direct and professional exchanges we had established by president biden is a key avenue we are using to get there. >> so this feels like a very state based response to ransomware attacks why does that also imply that most of the attackers are state based or state enabled? >> what it implies is the core tools of fighting ransomware are within nation states' hands and we also need the private sector cooperation and partnership. a core takeaway in the discussion was the degree to
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which elicit use of virtual currency is used and over 30 countries noted that they're not implementing task force rules around controls for virtual currencies in the most effective way. we talked about how to build capacity to that, how to share information regarding that because transnational movements of cryptocurrency is a key driver of ransomware we wanted to ensure to coordinate the efforts across diplomacy, cryptocurrency, resilience and disruption in the most effective way we can. >> i would part is the private sector and you have been calling on companies to be more transparent with the attacks do you support this bill in congress that would compel companies with critical infrastructure to disclose any cyber attacks with the feds? >> so two parts to that. one is resilience. we have been calling on the
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private sector to ensure that the cyber security is in place to make themselves harder targets. that was a topic in the meeting and we believe a core part of that also is the government understanding incident that is occur and we are using and reused and learn from incidents and get information to ensure further victims aren't compromised by the same techniques so we think that sharing is critical to ensuring to learn from what occurs and make it harder to reuse the same approaches. >> to what extent did crypto enable the attackers more than in the past? >> it is money driven and virtual currency, the degree to which money can move quickly around the world certainly is a driver of attackers laundering
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of ransom payments and a core part of the discussions how to broaden use of the financial controls that are in place for dollars and euros and how to ensure the same rules are globally applied to cryptocurrency, to crypto exchanges to use virtual currencies like traditional currencies. >> thank you so much for joining today, anne. >> thank you so much. up next netflix earnings on deck what to expect they report next week and how the squid game effect to affect the xen's long term. next week is the 10th anniversary of the halftime report on cnbc scott has an all-star lineup some biggest investors in the world to join him to talk about markets and the investing inside
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and starts on monday halftime report noon eastern as always a big week for scott and the team we look forward to it. >> maybe a big female vinvestor in there, too. >> just so happens that's how is met'co out happy birthday to scott and the team i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones thanks for coming. i'mnow when it comeshis. to a financial plan this broker is your man. let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own,
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netflix set to report next week let's bring in michael packer with an underperform rating and a price target on the stock. great to have you on what's the core reason for why you have an underperform on this >> yeah. i just think it's overvalued it is not -- they're definitely a very solid business. they have a massive and sustainable first mover advantage so i don't see the subscriber count declining and i don't see them doing anything bad but the stock's trading about nine times revenue my target is five times revenue why not saying it's worthless but overvalued because i think investors look at them like they'll dominate everybody on the planet cut the cord and start streaming everything and
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that is not going to happen as long as you're on the air. >> i think also great to see someone stickthis neck out as they have in terms of 342 price target when could that start to pull back this quarter is it a year ahead which numbers do you focus on coming into this quarter >> i think that the only number that really matters is free cash flow my target gives them credit to break even this year we'll see if that happens. and then i have it growing a billion a year for ten years and discount back at a u.s. treasury rate and really low and then apply a 5% cash flow yield and stretching to get to 342 if they grow cash flow faster then the stock is worth more i don't see it i don't see the content costs coming down. the competition is not just for
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eyeballs but creative and i think the biggest news is this strike that the stage and theater workers, they are the guys that everybody but the creatives to make content. scale is significantly lower than tv scale. the streamers aren't paying enough and i think netflix will see the cost go up a lot without accommodation and the street is missing that. >> that's pretty interesting especially because that is set to happen. how long have you been out of consensus and way below the price on netflix it does seem like it's a runaway train. subs or a hit show like "squid games. >> great question. i have to admit i have been consistently wrong forever i downgraded in 2012 and i was convinced that disney
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was going to compete and that they were going to pull the content andseven years too early. i thought you would get competitive streaming services earlier. that happened 2019 and 2020 and covid kind of masked the effect and shut at home and watching more streaming content i think that starts to materialize in a year or so and what happens is netflix sees significantly slowing growth because their penetrated the median households in the west and the growth is low quality and southern asia and india kind of growth at very low rpu and see that stall and subscriber growth robust but low quality and content costs continue to rise. >> what about pricing power here in the u.s.? have they not got levers they can pull them? >> charging is 14. hbo charging 15. disney between 7 to 10
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depending on when you sign up. it's going to be really hard when they're compared to the other plans. yes. we will pay 20 because we are consuming enough to justify it and people start to cut the streaming subscription and flip around getting too expensive >> maybe i wouldn't pay 20 >> i would pay 20 but i pay for everything i pay for my peloton subscription and haven't been on it for six months. >> i do, too i pay for the paw patrol bundle. >> a good moment. >> it is a lot of plans. my question on the strike point you made about raising netflix cost does that raise everybody's costs? who else is hit on that? >> streaming in particular so netflix and amazon are going to get hit heavily disney across the board creates
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so much content that they're probably not hit as bad and hbo originals. they pay below scale but the conventional broadcast guys pay at scale so i don't see cbs, abc, nbc, fox hit the same way. it really is a streamers and the union came up with a brilliant idea to allow the sound guys and the grips to earn less working on a netflix cset than a nbc set i live in l.a. with friends in the industry going out on strike on monday and all really angry at the streamers and the union >> a lot of strikes happening in corporate america. michael, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> best subscription is cnbc pro. >> of course. >> really good extended conversations. >> tom lee >> michael santoli multiple. >> your business. >> really good. >> just want to mention square
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shares getting a pop although giving back some of the gain just this after the ceo jack dorsey tweeted square is considering building a bitcoin mining system based on custom silicon and open source for individuals and businesses worldwide. we would follow the hardware >> i don't know all of the implication to this, but clearly an effort to democratize crypto, computing and all of the rest of it i don't know what the effect of that would be if it was easier to mine. only x number of bitcoin ever going to be produced so the competition to mine, if it became easier in theory, your
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profit break even level. >> plus square going into bitcoin world. >> it is not clear to me that investors are really wanting that they think of square as a play on an all in one spending and transaction app that includes crypto, but mostly crypto to own it in a wallet as opposed to ow mining it, but we will see he thinks steps ahead. >> he is a believer. >> what a week >> up next, apple unasd.lehe the tech giant is gearing up for its next big event what to expect, when closing bell comes right back. fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. it's another day. for a prospectus containing this information. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests
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afternoon. josh >> apple isn't saying what to expect the formal invitation with the tag line unleashed reports suggesting that the company is going to introduce new higher end mac book pro with new design chips the mac has been a winner for apple as people worked from home during the pandemic. they would like to keep the momentum going in q3 they had about a 9% share. the company saw 14% growth in shipment year over year. back to you. >> josh, is it typical to split these types of launches out having just had one for the iphone >> it has become more typical. i think apple wants to keep that
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going. even in the face of the historic shortages. >> thank you very much, josh before we go, we want to show you a new index. this citi model has been renamed in honor of the man we miss dearly sentiment positioning captures that on a 12-month forward basis. what it is flashing is cautious. euphoria readings since last november >> that is what it is designed to do. multiple different factors also gasoline prices, a lot of technical and positioning indicateors and designed to project the odds of the stock market being up or down in 12
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months relative to ran done chance when it is in euphoria there is gr three times great chance to be negative it shot into euphoria so it can be early i think the nasdaq relative to volume component just shot to the moon and that's probably what is going on i have used it for a while at my old job i used it. how can you panic on a long period of time, but the market kept grinding higher it told you people were not overoptimistic about the market at that point. >> he brought up so many great insights this was one of many >> it's going to live on and we
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will still be able to use it with the name behind it, on top of it, which is the only way forward. >> when you have something proprietary that gains a track record over a long period of time, it should live on. >> by the way, the levkovich index has been in euphoria for 12 weeks >> maybe needs some tweaks but remains to be seen >> earnings season now over. >> for the banks >> we discussed netflix but it will get juicy for other tech names as well. the bigquestion will there be good earnings season this week started off on a good note >> we will get a better sample in terms of whether some companies have obviously not been able to sustain it. i think it's fair to assume it
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will be a noisier earnings season where there will be hiccups in supply chain and guidance sector. we have already had a flattening of earnings forecast that will be the interplay >> the other thing that that will happen next week is there is a blackout period that starts next week. while we expect the paper, the question is on higher interest rates. whether the market is prepared for that and can handle that >> i think if things stay on this trajectory and people are spending, we will be ready for it we are on the precipice of the paper beginning presumably and everyone feels like it is just pro formz, like it's just fine, we want to get it over with. like a year ago we might have said what is going to happen over time you can make your
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peace with what is going on. >> we have had quite a flattening of the curve. the short end is the move of the week >> it was pretty violent yesterday and today. you wonder if it is overshooting in the near term, but we have to wait and see >> that's going to do it for us on a friday. "closi "closing bell" ends and "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee tonight's lineup -- tonight on fast, bitcoin breaking out where is it headed from here the chart master is standing by to break it down plus our chart of the week one of our traders has been recommending for a while, but it's down more than 7% since monday and


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