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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  October 19, 2021 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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pace since last november including coopa and cloud flair we mentioned flair, a fresh all-time high today and was in cramer's radar, today. tonight, netflix and ual before things start to continue to heat up tomorrow as well with verizon and biogen let's get to the half on this anniversary week let's get to the judge ♪ ♪ carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner the rally in stocks, four straight and counting while brad guester in is with us and the investment committee here to debate your money's next move. joining me, stephanie link, jim looken that will, josh brown, jon najarian co-founder of market rebellion let's go to the wall we are about a percent away from a new high on the s&p. a big week of earn suggests rolling on
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we have gerstner coming on, and he told you stocks were going higher, and richard fisher will tell us what the fed will do next month, as well. the dow is up 161, farmer jim, the market is coming to your point of view. it's listening loud and clear, jimmy. >> you know what it's such an easy point of view to have. first off, 90% of the time you'll be right if you're bullish and i don't understand people who get so bearish and stick to their guns. you're like a salmon swimming upstream all of the time it's such hard work and why not go with the flow and there are reasons to be higher we're seeing where earnings are. they're high and growing and there are always risks out there. there are always risks that congress does something stupid or that the fed gets aggressive, which by the way, it's not going to do any time soon. what you have here is early in an economic expansion. you've got profits growing and
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jobs are plentiful and yeah, there are supply chain bottlenecks and they'll work themselves out i have no idea, and i don't know if it's two week, two months or two quarters and i don't think it's two years and the people saying that are a bit ridiculous this is a good time in the cyclical trades. it doesn't mean you give up faang. faang for the long run will do well, but right now the cyclical, you see marathon petroleum and the industrials and my northrop grumman. i can go on and on, but it's a good time for the cyclical trade early in an economic expansion >> i'll tell you what, steph, it does seem like the whole tone of the market has changed in a week i wonder if it's time to capitulate on the correction nonsense jonathan krinsky out with a new note before we dame on the air, seasonals are a tailwind and optimistic sentiment has been re-set and we are seeing consumer discretionary breakout of a multi-month base versus staples which is generally
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indicative of risk i heard mark wilson who are making the rounds where it sounds to me like he's ready to capitulate we'll find out from him directly if he's willing to do that, but it sure sounds like it, is it time to capitulate on all of that negativity, steph >> yes i've been positive especially about 4q because seasonally it is strong and i agree with what john just said there are tailwinds and liquidity and ample and even with the taper and it's still tremendous from the monetary side we might get more on the fiscal side and i don't know about that, but that could be a possibility. interest rates are benign, they're rising, but they're rising slowly and they're rising for the right reasons and better growth, more inflation consumer consumer is 70% of the u.s. gdp. they have job if they want them. wages are going higher and they have $2 trillion in excess savings and there's pent-up demand and you add all of this up and you have earnings that probably get revised higher. why is that important?
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because stocks follow earnings and i think you're already starting to see earnings go higher look at the banks. every single one of those names and beat and numbers went higher that's a good sign and we still have a ways to go, but i am encouraged so far. i worry inflation and energy prices and demand destruction especially for the consumer, so that is a big watch point for me between now and the end of the year i want to be long, and i want to be in cyclicals and re-open names because i think that's a theme that will carry into 2022, as well. >> that's what michael ckolanovi is talking about, and i want to know what's on your mind beyond the black truffle burger at the shake shack >> all right all right. let's not overdo it. 50% of the nspx names are now back above the 50 day, but 50%
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are not so there's still more healing to do beneath th surface. the recovery of that last 50% of stocks that are still below the short-term moving average could be the catalyst for the next market wide move higher and when i look at, like, what's working right now, there's no story. like, there's no rhyme or reason, almost everything is starting to participate here which is typical going into year end. maybe it doesn't normally start this early probably it usually starts around thanksgiving, but i look at walmart, target and costco and just went on massive runs and no kidding, consumer diskregd discretionary and it's never been in as good a shape and that is the best part of the economy today. then you look at the high beta names and the high beta stuff from last year that spent this whole year getting murdered and starting to look like they've bottomed and zoom is a great example of that. shopify, spotify, both ripping and even teledock,and snow, oh,
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my god look at this chart put it up there for me, patty. unity, tucker symbol u, looks incredible that makes sense, right? they're also rung up the bank stocks you have a 52-week high in the banks. they're running up reits look at my simon property. 52-week high and they're in the s&p 500 today and a lot of those names look great and even apple is running after a decent pullback, so forget about the cyclical, risk on, risk off. throw that out that is last year's news and it's the worst thing i've ever heard. focus on how many charts in how many different industry groups are starting to set up either because they've bottomed or because they refuse to pull back while the overall market did,
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and there are just so many opportunities there. >> i love the rift that you went on you highlighted so many important things dr. j., you've been negative relative to other people and he thought rates would move up a little bit any the market may not be able to withstand that and i know we're talking about higher levels than this and that's the kolanovic that said oil can go to 130 and rates can go two and a half and the market can withstand that, but you do have rates up. you do have oil up and you've got stocks up and the s&p is not that far away from a new high. the tone has changed, doc. you can feel that, can't you yes, scott the overall, we are getting that lift right now i'm delighted for it as the other panel members are. virtually all of your portfolio can move out, and he's absolutely right because of
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what's going on with coal and what's going on with natural gas and what's going on with oil uranium stocks so of course, tam has to move as well because the alternative, any of the alternatives that people have become more attractive if they haven't made the similar moves to what we've seen in those other commodities. the tan is up almost 5% today. that's a broad swath of those solar stocks and so forth. that feels pretty good the energy trade is still moving right along. i disagree, as i said with kolanovic about $130 oil, but we're not there. you know, we're obviously over $50 from that level. i think that would be something, scott, that would be a big negative that's not what i'm shooting against right now. i think you sit back, enjoy the ride like farmer jim has said and right now we have massive upside buying into this earnings season so unless we see significant
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disappointments from the people that actually have to deliver a product rather than deliver something over the internet, i think this could continue. >> let me do this. let's get to a couple of quick items before we bring in gerstner, because i can't wait to hear about the cloud stocks josh, you sold zillow. you bought it in the low 90s you heard about it this week, they stopped buying the homes. just take us through your trade here >> yeah. so there are too many, as i mentioned, there are so many stocks setting up here nicely. there are so many breakouts happening, and i can't have something in my portfolio of individual names where the company is basically admitting that they're not executing and they have mno plans to fix it until the end of the year. i can't afford it. there's too much else, and i look at what's going on at zillow not just their failure, but mine i brought the stock down 55% on
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the year i thought that was enough and apparently things are going worse there than what the market had surmised and it's okay we move on and do other things >> we highlight the good, the bad and the ugly that's what we do and what we've always done over the last ten years. now let's talk about the good. >> i was going to say, you saw me pull the rip cord on leslies this year. that didn't work you saw me pull the rip cord on bristol-myers, a failed technical breakout, if you're not acknowledging when you're wrong you're not really doing this in real life. the only people who are playing for batting average are on twitter. in real life it's about dollars, wins and losses aren't as important. it's what are you losing or what are you making so i was wrong you have to be willing to say this was my idea it's not panning out the way i thought it would. >> speaking of pulling the rip cord when you bought coin base at
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250, 255 it sounded like you had the parachute on just in case things fell apart and i guess you've taken it off. the stock is at 303, 304 as we speak and it's moving higher and you have the new bitcoin etf and your thoughts on coin base is just a great call. yeah i didn't expect it to move this fast, frankly. i'll move up a trailing stop i'm not going to leave my original in, but the idea behind coin base was very simple. i'm speaking to people all of the time in our industry everybody is trying to figure out how to -- how to make crypto a part of what they're doing and again, i do believe gemini and coin base are going to be the two biggest winners coming out of this. only one of them is publicly traded so i think coin base is setting itself up as a 21st century custodian for the digital economy, and they have a really,
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really big lead and that's as much thought as i put into it. >> let's bring in brad gerstner the founder and ceo of altimeter. good to see you. thanks for being a part of this this week. >> hi, scott thanks for having me and happy 10th from milken and all of the investors out here >> i appreciate it very much how timely to have you given the conversation that we were just having from software like snowflake which you're ripping it's up 5% this week stocks are not that far away from a new high we spoke three weeks ago at delivering alpha which was not televised. sn snippets of our conversation were played and you were net longers have 75 last year and that the fed had to come in fairly substantially from where it was, it's going the opposite direction. what's going on now? >> after listening to josh i'm fired up and probably need to go
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buy some stuff listen, we're in the business of assessing probabilities and there's a distribution of probabilities here everybody agrees that rates and liquidity are having an impact on multiples and what i said is, you know, we've decided that we'll have less on than we did at this time last year because multiples have come up a lot let me give you one statistic. if the nasdaq were to correct, the growth multiples were to correct to january 2020 levels pre-covid. in january 20, nobody thought multiples were too low we'd have a 30% correction in the nasdaq so i think when you're looking at the distribution of probabilities and whether you're playing from home or doing this for a living, you need to leave open the possibility that as rates begin to move up, as the world normalizes and multiples are going normalize. that can occur and at the same time, at the same time, great fundamental innovations will lead to value creation that will
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continue to be investable. >> have you changed your positioning since we last spoke in have you increased your long exposure by virtue of what the company is doing what we know from history's sake is we are entering a period that's usually pretty good for the market >> i mean, scott, every day we're in the market and adding or subtracting to positions, but we haven't had any material changes and we're playing over a longer arc, right? our largest position is snowflake which josh just talked about, and an incredible business that we think is much larger, three, four, five years from now, but if the market corrects due to interest rate corrections, et cetera it, too, will come in. so you just have to understand that you're planning a market where valuations are at or near all-time highs and you need to make sure that your exposures allow you to pay more when things come up
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snowflake was at 180 or $190 a share, and i didn't hear too many people banging the table to buy snowflake at q2. today it's at 340, and i think that is representative of the market at large. people need to assess that distribution of risk and return and make their own call. >> so it sounds like you're not backing away from your call that the nasdaq needs to correct, and you're expecting it to happen at some point as rates continue to, in your words normalize and whether that's two weeks, two months or whenever you're not deterred at all by the recent price action in the nasdaq which again feels like the market wants to continue to move up. >> scott we're very long this market, right? so we have a hedge fund that is long the market. we have venture capital funds that are very long the market. so we're benefitting from this upward move. all i would say is that the probabilities are, as the world normalizes, as rates normalize,
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multiples will revert closer to the mean we don't call tops or bottoms, but when that occurs we probably pulled forward, six, 12, 18 months worth of returns. it could simply many that the nasdaq goes sideways for a period of time or it could mean that we have air pockets along the way. we certainly saw those in november of 2018 remember, just on the fear of rising rates we had the 30% intraquarter correction in the nasdaq what i fear today is nobody has any fear that tells me that the consensus is in the camp that they need to put more money on and likely to have corrections here, but we're long the market and we'll continue to, you know, buy where we see opportunities what looks best to you i mentioned the conversation we had with delivering alpha and you had sold out of united airlines and expedia, some of the chinese internet names that you had owned and you all, but called china uninvestable at
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this particular time what look attractive to you. had you bought anything new and exciting recently? well, i think, as you and i discussed, we'd set up a travel recovery fund on april 1st, 2020 we said to our investors when we saw tv cameras back in airports that we would distribute those returns and it was a great run for those companies and they all still have a decent future ahead of them and we saw better opportunities for those dollars and we rotated into other things we think that there are always opportunities within the market. say, for example, facebook highly controversial stock trading at 20 times earnings, 22 -- 21 times next year's free cash flow. for 20% growth so it's trading at the same multiple of free cash flow as the s&p, but it's growing four times as fast. it's investing five times as
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much on rnd on an annual basis as most in the s&p we think that's an interesting opportunity to very firly value the inflation in a market that's inflated >> despite all of the stuff. you can disconnect yourself as an investor and you are willing to do that to look at the ugliness, and just focus on the fundamental investing analysis and that's not in any way from from a regulatory standpoint >> let me be clear i'm the dad of a a 13-year-old we don't talk about snapchat we don't talk about tiktok the number of concerns that parentses have -- we don't talk about companies selling sugary substances to our kids i actually applaud facebook for doing the research they did. i wish they would open source
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the research that talks about impact osteens i wish they would challenge everyone in the industry to do the same and give parents a quarterly report, a dashboard about the impact of all online activities on kids so no, i don't think facebook is uniquely bad i think the leadership team there is doing a terrific job. it's a great investment and probably the most innovative company at scale today other than -- >> do you really think the management team there in light of the stories that have come out recently and whistle-blower included and others is doing in your words a terrific job. i mean, come on, a lot of people would take issue, brad, with that statement that mark zuckerberg, sheryl samberg could go down the list and do better, quite frankly. you don't think so >> i've communicated with management and i've told them i think it would be a great idea
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to open source this report to challenge other people to do the same i mean, why aren't we asking other companies, scott why they're not doing this research? why aren't we asking them where is tiktok's research on the impact on kids snapchat's research on the impact on kids the fact that the media is unilaterally focusing on facebook seems to be misdirected. i would also point out that the leadership team at facebook have young kid says i know them personally, and i do think they take all of this extraordinarily serious. >> why don't you ask tiktok. aren't you in bite dance >> we are in bite dance and have raised it to the company along with other companies i've tweeted about this and i think -- listen, you have these guests on all of the time and there is an opportunity for you, you always change the conversation this conversation should not just be about facebook it should be about the impact generally of these activities of the most-used applications on
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our children apple needs to account for this, google needs to account for this, snapchat needs to account for it and yes, facebook needs to account for it as well. we need to open source the research and provide it about our kids >> let's talk about public versus private you have more money under management that's being invested in private companies versus public which leads us to the question which do you think you can deliver more alpha and if so, what does that say about public market investing to our viewers who are watching >> yes, scott. as you know, i started in the venture capital business and over the last 20 years we've seen massive industrialization in venture think about it salesforce went public a billion dollars valuation. google went public at a $25 billion valuation.
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bite dance would go public at a $500 billion valuation all of that value creation is occurring in the venture market and sht in the public market the objective was to be best crossover fund and not only as prrns, but as they cross into the public market and then continue to be an investor so what you see is a consolidation of major brands that participate in both of those markets. i think there's amazing value creation opportunity in the private markets and it's frankly, less competitive because fewer have the opportunity to invest in those best companies and one of the things we need to change is the credited investor rules. we mead to make it easier for more people to own these venture companies, particularly when they're staying private longer no longer are we living at the moment where companies are coming up at 5 million or a
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billion and they're coming public at 20 or 30 billion and all of that is coming to venture capitalists as opposed to public market and retail investors. >> it's the perfect segway to talk about uber and a late stage private company and you remain a big supporter, do you not? josh brown is on the show, too i want to get his thoughts too, but i want to hear his thoughts on uber. >> uber is one of those companies that got hyped way up in the private markets came public at a valuation that was challenging and then we had covid that hit i give a lot of credit for the team at uber that have fought through covid and have fought through cultural changes when i look at the business today, right a year ago we said that our people are going to continue to take deliveries of goods and food at their home post-covid. the answer to that is unequivocally yes. look at doordash
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look at uber the second is could it be profitable doordash and uber approving profitability both on the unit level and the consolidated share and rideshare would be more profitable >> my expectation is that uber is gaining share, they're gaining share in theus today we have a massive multiple door dash and it's closer to 14 or 15 times next year's avenue and people will gain more confidence in the durability of the growth and the profitability. >> i want to i know you have a sfons what, and you remain as bullish as gerstner. >> yeah. i want to change the subject back to what you were talking
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about before because i think what brad is talking about is so important. on the one hand we've got these credit investor rules in order to prevent people who can't afford to take catastrophic losses to get involved with things that typically fail we just happen to be in a moment in the last five years where almost everything works. you can get a spac exit, you can get a takeover you can get an ipo, 93 ipos last quarter which is a record for q3 ipos this environment won't last,so i do worry about all of a sudden and opening the floodgates for people that don't have the financial wherewithal to start putting money into private deals and the second component of that, brad and i'd love your take on it this mark has opened up a great deal we're putting high net worth investors into private market start-ups and the valuations are just as crazy as everything that people talk about on the nasdaq. we put money into a $7 billion
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valuation. softbank is giving them money at 40 billion what really changed other than liquidity? not much and that's one example of probably a thousand do you worry that we've basically exported a bubble from the nasdaq into the private markets and what will be the fallout when that inevitably comes to an end? >> i mean, josh, thanks for the question and number one on valuations we started the program by me saying there is no doubt we are underestimating the distortion that low interest rates and this amount of liquidity in a post-covid world are having on multiples across the spectrum. everything is higher priced then it would have been if rates weren't at zero and we didn't have this amount of liquidity. both as a venture investor and a private market investor i'm just saying you have to have a balanced approach. you to leave open the possibility that we're going have a correction and manage the
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portfolio so that you can durably continue to invest through that cycle secondly, when it comes to an accredited investor's list and i agree with you gensler office cnbc this morning. the fact that we have a rodeo going on on robinhood every day where we have retail investors trading options in companies like gamestop, i mean, josh, that is at least as risky as investing in a high-quality venture-backed company that altimeter and an dreesen are investing in >> fair. the fact that they're more risky than this activity going on in the public markets i think is misplaced, but i want to better democratize the opportunities and scott's heard me say before, my idea around invest america and give every child in this country a $2,000 investment account and make all kids part of the ownership society the big problem is there are only 30% or 40% of people when participate in the ownership society. that came to the front during covid. we need to correct that problem. >> you know, it's funny, as i
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was listening to you to talk about markets being distorted because of all of the liquidity, i mean, people have been saying that same thing since '08, right? that markets have been fully distorted and the bond market, right? interest rates since 2008 have remained historically ridiculous so it just makes me think about all of the liquidity and it's the same conversation that we've been having for the last 12 or 13 years let's do this, speaking of whether markets, there's too much speculation or distortion or what have you bitcoin back above 60 and the new futures etf today and gensler was on the network talking about it earlier and icahn was talking about bitcoin specifically which you wanted to take issue with. let's listen to carl and opine on the other side. >> i think the jury's out on it. the jury is really out on whether it is or whether it's not. i think if you can tell me what
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this economy's going to do and how inflationary it's going to get. if inflation gets rampant, i guess it does have value, but will inflation get rampant or will the government come in to stop this thing, pretty much there are so many variables that it is a very difficult thing to invest in. >> he's not the only one to think that, and he likened it to banking and he said if i want to gamble, let's go to vegas. >> i respect carl, and the jury is out on whether it will happen in the next 90 days, but the jury is not out on whether crypto is one of the most fundamental technical changes that i've seen in my investment career across the street from milken, there is a conference going on called medici. i was there with the founder of l-1 chains and solana, et cetera, the fundamental technical changes going on are very profound.
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at our firm, we say follow the world's best engineers, invest in google and if they're going to facebook, invest in facebook, if they're going to snowflake invest in snowflake. the reason for that is we have an opportunity to reinvent the internet in a way that allows us to have something that can authenticate transactions, authent kate value that gets exchanged. so i think it's an important innovation we see more engineers and more development over the last 24 months than we saw in the prior eight years and it's that level of innovation and that level of -- of evolution in the utility of this thing that causes us to be pretty excited about crypto whether or not bitcoin goes up over the next 90 days is a totally different question >> you are always one of our faves. i always enjoy the conversation and you get people talking and that's the point
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thank you. >> keep it up, scott another ten years to you and the entire team. >> brad gerstner of altimeter joining us today from los angeles. we have two more exclusives on halftime the activist nelson peltz joins us and investment manager david einhorn makes his return looking forward to that. we have blackrock's rick reider. he told you stocks were going up he was right we're back in two minutes. like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq
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i'm john fortt here is your cnbc news at this hour fbi agents swarmed the home of o leg deripaska. he has close ties to vladimir putin and one of two sanctioned by the treasury department in 2013 more on the reason for the raid tonight at 7:00 eastern. a top haitian official says the gang that kidnapped 17 canadian missionaries is demanding $17 million to release them. fbi officials are working with haitian authorities on their release. among the victim, one of them an 8-month-old baby some surfers got an up close look at sharks swimming alongside them a drone captured several white sharks off the coast in del mar. it seemed that the surfers were unaware of the sharks nearby and experts say it's not uncommon
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for these sharks to be spotted in the area. they are expected to stick around late autumn "halftime report" returns after this >> rbc out with its list of es contenders the firms that have compelling esg attributes the contenders manage sustainable funds and rbc believes they can benefit as they climb ownership rankings and among the names highlighted, general motor, drop wendpor, a octa that's our esg fast fact of the day. at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity
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of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley. ♪ ♪ remember when no dream was too big? ♪ ♪ and you could fearlessly face the unknown. (kids playing) you still can. ♪ ♪ (blowing dust)
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welcome back our next guest manages $2.7 trillion blackrock cio and head of the global allocation team and let's bring in blackrock's rick reider. mr. reider, welcome back >> congrats on ten years thanks for having me again it's good to have you back and it's easier for you to be back because you said stocks are going higher i think those were your exact words. the easy part is out of the way
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now, rick. where are you going from here? that's what we want to know. >> can i rest on the last call >> listen, i think they're going higher scott, from two perspectives, interest rates can make their moves and the fear that we'll have drama of theically higher interest rates doling the valuations and the equity market i don't think we're going much further from where we are today, secondly, when i look around there are stocks to buy that make sense and i was looking at the auto companies the other day. they're pretty reasonable relative to where they've been over time. you've got what is an inventory drawdown and forward demand, there are enough stocks out there that have reasonable valuations they think we'll keep going higher and by the way, i think the earnings numbers and some of the ones, you're definitely seeing pressure on margins from the staples companies and you but that was going to happen and i think the rest of the earnings picture, companies are pricing it through
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and i think people underestimate, and when you get this sort of inflation and the equity market or the impact on the equity market stocks do pretty well. if you can get pass through which i would argue given the de demand function you can and we still have upside still to go. by the way, the fixed part of the market, and more flows will continue in the equity market. 4500 is where you sit on the s&p. what's reasonable between now and the end of the year, do you think? >> a tough call. could you get another 5% to 8% out of the market? i don't see any reason why not tech has some upside that could be more significant. yeah i think you can get 5 to 8 or ten. you said it earlier on the show and i think we talked about it for months now the amount of liquidity in the system is epic the numbers are extraordinary. it was 3 trillion and it's 40
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today. 40 trillion and it was 6% of gdp 20 years ago it's 47% of global gdp today even the fed tapers and they're not reducing the size of the balance sheet and they're just slowing down how much they've put in i think there are a lot of flows and look at the size of the money market funds today and where are they going to go and the pension funds and endowments i still think you have up here >> i guess get is when is some of the liquidity going to come out? for that let's ask fisher, and the form dallas fed president. i love having him on, too. rich, good to see you. i'm glad you were able to join today. >> i appreciate it and being you alongside of rick is a great honor upon by the way. it's hard to dispute what he says. >> it's good to have you both. so do you think we've seen the magnitude of the room in rates and 161, 162 >> yeah. well, it depends on where you're looking on the curve, obviously, the two to five-year space has
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doubled in yield since august. however, these are slow rates and there's a lot of liquidity floating around the system and more importantly, companies are passing on the inflationary pressures that you're seeing on the cost side and the input side and consumers seem to be taking it in at this juncture, that protects their margins look at what proctor just announced this morning this is very typical behavior. so far, this has been well digested i do worry that inflationary pressures are far from transitory again, if you read through the proctor statement this is one example, of course, this shows you how long it takes for businesses to adjust and figure out how to reconfigure and re-up it as they did in their announcement well, this is that kind of environment right now and again,
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rick makes a significant key point the amount of liquidity coursing through the system. ten years ago that was when we just finished up qe-2 and we added 6 00 million to the bank balance sheet and we tarped through 2013, and january of 2014 after the taper tantrum at the end of the balance was 4.5 trillion and as rick points out it will be nine. >> is there too much liquidity has the fed already blown it they should have already tapered, right >> you know my views i want to start tapering a bit earlier, and besides that, i lost a lot of votes, but even rick's point is key even if they taper down next summer, we'll still have a pretty significant
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balance sheet and they will not likely raise rates until they get that process done although what's happened in the three-to-five year space is the equivalent of three interest rate increases by the fed. and yet the market's digested it so this you have it. >> well, because rick reider and the last word to you we digested it because you guys were just talking and even with the taper you're still going to be qe2-plus of bond buying and the market knows that more than anybody else >> yeah. i think that's right the part of the fed that needed to start tapering earlier is you need to open the window and they won't start raising rates until well after they finish this tapering program you need to start getting there that in case you need to create some breaking of this inflation trend you can start to move the
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right higher as richard said, two hikes for 22 and then three in the 23. the system started anticipating the fed doing it, and i think they should start in 22. i think they definitely think they should start moving and i think they need to open that wind owe up. if you look historically where real rates are and they'll stay persistently lower and the rates move higher than where they are today, and the pension funds right now being fully funded and real rates will stay lower even though you have the fed reducing the amount that is put in the system >> both of you have been good friends of the program it's good to have you on this week richard fisher, rick reider, i hope to see you, soon. >> two big interviews tomorrow nelson peltz, david einhorn will join us. we'll come back -- jim cramer is
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firefighter maggie gronewald knows how to handle dry weather... ...and dry, cracked skin. new gold bond advanced healing ointment. restore healthy skin, >> j & j's higher today after beating eps estimates, stephanie link, i said i need to hear from you. stocks having a nice day >> it is having a nice day they beat earnings revenues grew 11%. they raised estimates, and that just speaks to their strong
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pipeline r & d is up 20% year-to-date, free cash flow of $15 billion. i expect a dividend increase in short term >> jimmy lebenthal, why do you prefer bristol-myers to j&j? >> hey, scott. unfortunately i can't talk about johnson & johnson, but i will talk about bristol-myers >> what do you mean you can't talk about it? >> i'm restricted in it. i'm restricted in it, can't talk about it >> that's why i asked you about bristol-myers. follow me, jimmy >> you said compare the two, scott. come on, i'm listening to you. >> i said why are you in bristol-myers instead of j&j i teed you up perfectly and you hit rewind >> i want my pharma exposure >> get with the program. >> calm down, josh you have time to speak, plenty of it. >> go ahead. >> bristol-myers is a cheap way to be in pharmaceuticals the democrats are not even remotely targeting pharmaceuticals the way they were a couple of months ago. that's the space i want to be in bristol-myers is my play >> thank you very much, farmer
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jim. unusual activity, doc. what do you got? >> let's kick it off with draftkings, scott, because the 5th of november expiration, 8,500 of the 52 calls go off, but a lower strike but those are the unusual activity apple, 46,000 of the 149 calls hit and, bang, like that, they've been buying all the way up to the 150s today, scott. obviously earnings play is coming into this lastly, netflix, which is tonight, netflix very strong activity but $18 billion surge in market cap over the past couple of weeks. is it all price it in, scott it depends on "squid game" i guess, but still long netflix call >> i love where apple is right now because it sets up nicely to talk about it as it approaches its earnings in the next couple of weeks it is at 148.5, 157 is the high. we will see if it gets back to that level we will take a quick break and come back and do final trades next
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all right. trb, what is your final trade? you go first >> staying long with uber. i really feel this could have a five handle by year-end. >> all right we'll see. 47.50 is where it sits stephanie link >> halliburton it was an inline quarter but positive on conference call about pricing strength, pricing pour and i think they're going to increase their buy back. >> halliburton shares up in a nice market. dr. j. >> tilray, the end of october, 29th of october expiration 1050 calls, trading about 13,000 contracts. that's a lot more than normal. i joined the party and hopefully takes us a lot higher. >> farmer jim, you got the last 20 seconds all to you, my
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friend >> thank you, my brother industrials have a strong bid and within industrials defense and aerospace. look at a company like raytheon or northrup grumer, but raytheon a new 52 week high the bid is there because no budget cuts coming and china is sabre rattling good time for defense. >> good stuff. thanks for watching today. "the exchange" starts now. ♪ thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here is what is ahead on "the exchange." sell-off what sell-off? stocks are once again nearing all-time highs, the dow and s&p within 1% of their records big fund managers are now the most bearish they've been in quite sometime we will look what that means for the market and bitcoin rising again today, just shy of its own record high back in april as the first bitcoin futures etf starts trading. what the head of the sec said today about the future of crypto regulation and we will speak with a crypto specialist who says a future's based fund is


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