tv Power Lunch CNBC October 19, 2021 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
outflows just like interest income or wages are already reported >> how much money will this new version raise? >> we don't know the details o f that yet we know that the original version would raise something like $400 billion. >> thank you very much for that reporting today. that does it for the change, but we're just getting started around here. "power lunch" begins right now indeed, we are, kelly. welcome to "power lunch. here's what we've got for you this hour. two power players. first, oak tree's howard marks he'll tell uswhere he's findin opportunity right now. and amc entertainment ceo, adam aron the company embracing its meme stock status we'll ask the ceo what comes
next and the first bitcoin futures etf makes its trading debut, but is there a better way to invest in crypto? we'll speak to an analyst who has identified a different way a better way, he says, to play it >> very interesting. hi, everybody. just off session highs dow hanging on to a 177-point gain we were up 200 earlier on. still up half a percent. other major averages up 0.7% p&g is lower after higher commodity and freight costs. they plan to off set costs with higher prices, but you're not seeing investors cheer that. sometimes they do. in this case, they're not. jnj raised its 2021 profit outlook. it's covid vaccine added about half a billion dollars and atea pharma is plunging 62%
today to $15 after its experimental covid antiviral failed to meet a study goal. our next guest has made a name for himself finding not to obvious investments. brian sullivan is now joined by howard marks >> thank you and somebody you spoke with in an interview on july 30th. good to see you. welcome. you told kelly on july 30th, you said you were not concerned about valuation. the market ticked a little higher not a lot. i would assume nothing has changed. you still remain optimistic about equity markets generally valuations, growth trajectories, et cetera. >> i think the most important single factor is what you called the growth trajectory. we're still seeing growth in the economy. i think we'll continue to see it for a while. i think valuations are high but
not unreasonably so. you know, i think the s&p 500 is selling at roughly 20 times forward earnings the historic average is 16 on the other hand, valuations are heavily influenced by interest rates we have the lowest interest rates we've ever seen. it wouldn't be silly to have the highest valuations we've ever seen and we don't. so i think it's okay it's viable. >> we always hear buy low, sell high but you can also here buy higher if you're bullish equities on a macro level, does that mean you're making a call that interest rates are going to be low, maybe not forever, but for much longer than many people may think? >> well, number one, i'm bullish on the economy and i think that stocks won't crap out as long as we have economic growth. number one and number two --
>> do you think we will crap out so to speak? >> eventually. that's why we have cycles. the market does well then it does too well then it gets too high then it corrects. that's the nature of cycles. >> where are we in that cycle? >> well, the market is quite high in the sense that it has moved ahead when the market, when the economy wasn't. market started moving ahead march 24th of 2020 market, and for the next three months, we had the worst quarter for gdp in history so clearly the market was doing well when the economy wasn't and that has continued to be somewhat true. so i think it's certainly true that the market is somewhat ahead of itself when you say i'm bullish. i certainly don't think stocks are cheap, but i think they're in the band of reasonableness. >> that's the theme here i think that we've been in interviews, panels, and just great to have
conversations again in the hallway. almost every power player we've talked to, and it sounds like you're in that camp, says i can make five reasons why stocks could or should go down, but the reality is given all the liquidity, given where interest rates are, the consumer, et cetera, they just hold their nose and buy the dip >> and positive economic performance. i think that's right you know, i think that this, there's a preoccupation in the media with -- are you a buyer or a seller and i think that that's too simplistic and it's too black or white. binary the point is i think of markets as rich, fair, cheap and when they're rich, maybe you should sell. when they're cheap, maybe you should buy >> tyler's got a question. >> we'll call that the marks scale. we're going to make a graphic on cnbc where are we
>> i think we're in fair territory. >> between fair and rich >> we might be on the higher part of fair but in fair territory. there's nothing brilliant to do. that's the key to remember my last book was on cycles and i said to my son, i think my cycle polls have been pretty good over the course of my career. he said, yeah, dad, because you did it five times in 50 years. there have been five or six or seven, maybe i missed a couple, great opportunities to do something. but in between, nothing brilliant to do. just sit there and be a holder >> tyler >> howard, great to have you with us. i want to turn to the discussion on fixed income assets you have a reputation as a distressed debt and savvy disstressed debt investor. how, if at all, does an individual make money in bonds or fixed income today because still a lot of money goes there even though we focus a lot of our time on the equity market.
>>. >> you know, the outstanding characteristic of the financial market today is the low interest rates and i would say for most portfolios, which are capable of bearing even a -- risk, i think it's hard to find a place for 1% or 2% treasuries or high grades. it's just not going to get you any play place in the long run and that's part of what's going on because if bonds don't work, then everybody runs to stocks and even riskier things to get the returns you can't get in bonds. but they take on risk and sometimes they take on risk they're not aware of or can't live with in tough times liquidity risks, credit risk,
volatility risks the truth of the matter is i don't like the returns that are available on high grade fixed income today, but to try to get more, it's inescapable that you have to take on some risk. >> even low grade. correct me if i'm wrong, 40% of corporate credit is one step above junk or something of that nature got double b minus bonds yielding some cases under 4% the dislocation seems bizarre. >> but i think this is true, brian, in most market sectors today. we're in a low return world. everything today is offering some of the lowest returns its ever offered prospectively or the lowest how do you get a good return in a low return world not easy >> crypto. >> it certainly involves taking risk and so it's one thing to
say i don't like 1% and 2% and 3%, but it's something different to say i'm perfectly happy taking the risk that you have to do what it takes to make 6% or 9% >> well said we're going to call it the marks scale. rich, fair, poor i guarantee you we'll have a graphic the next time you come on >> pleasure, brian >> and hey, kelly and tyler, speaking of taking risks, a lot of people have bought amc. stock's up 1900% in 12 months. the ceo is going to join us right after this as well >> looking forward to it >> hope he got some stock. he probably did. >> certainly has some skin in the game now it's been a big few days for the cloud stocks hitting an all-time high today up 6% in the past five trading sessions and some individual components are doing even better christina has her head in the
clouds for us. > >> the constituents are rallying specifically zoom video is up about 7% on the week docusign up 8% zoom well higher than 8% then adobe up about 10% on the week other high growth posting gains in october like fastly and zen scaler, up double digits for the month. then there's cloudfare that stock notching an all-time high at the open before pulling back in the last couple of hours. trending down almost 2% lower. still, cloudflare is up. 57.5 seems like they bought the chip and dip.
the etf is in positive territory with some strong con ststituent and the smh is around 3% from its september record >> just below those levels and now alibaba making its own moves to the cloud to compete with amazon >> they just announced they're going to launch a new server chip both will not be able to customers, but you can buy the services on those servers. there's two trends one, cloud computing, the future, right. right now, it's only a part of less than 10% of its total revenue for alibaba, but the second trend is a lot of these corporations are designing their own. like amazon, microsoft, baba >> a big sign of the times thanks so much >> coming up, the ceo of one of the year's most talked about stocks, adam aron embracing his retail shareholder base.
he'll share his strategy for the rest of the year and beyond. plus, a working lunch with the ceo of atlassian you'll hear the story of the day his business changed forever and later, the stakes are high when netflix's earnings, due out after the bill our trading nation team will gave their takes after a mostly rocky 2021
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welcome back, everybody. it might be the hottest stock of the year amc getting a big boost from the reddit crowd and jumped well over 1,000% over the improving box office brian sullivan is in los angeles for another first on cnbc interview with the company's chairman and ceo, adam aron. >> yeah, tyler, i was thinking about this interview and trying to plan and strategize and just gave up. because i don't know what to ask anymore. jim cramer says don't bet against adam aron. okay, but when i see a stock that's up almost 2,000% in a year, adam, i don't have a question what's it like to run that company and what's your message to the hundreds of thousands of small traders that have been trading your stock every day
>> so actually what a wild ride amc has had since this pandemic hit. >> you think >> a year and a half ago we fought for our very survival in 2020 and we won that battle and in january of this year, we were able to say we made it. our business wasn't back we raised billions of dollars to survive and then this year, it's actually millions of retail traders have descended on amc. we have over 4 million stockholders now they have small positions on average, but when you add them all up, it really is the evidence of the demock ratization of wall street. all the experts on the side, it's the individual investor who know owns amc. i work for them. and when you talk about the rise in our share price, i hear so many naysayers say well look,
back in 2019, your market cap was x. how are you ever going to get there? and they predicted our stock would fall only one thing i'm certain of. stocks rise, stay the same or fall what i do know, what jim cramer has been kind enough to say about amc, you don't drive a car by looking in the rear-view mirror you drive a car by looking through the windshield and looking forward and you shouldn't look at what amc was in 2019. >> let's, forget about covid, can we for a brief moment the movie theatre business was in decline before covid. >> well, actually, couple of things there that's a big and important question, brian. movie theatre business was not in decline before covid. in fact, the industry box office has been growing for 20 years. it's been growing by the combination of price and volume
of tickets sold. >> correct not the amount of proliferation of theatres. >> but we don't measure our success by the number of theatres or attendees. it's dollars and the box office was growing and had been for i think we had positive box over 17 of the last 18 years now having said that, shard to put covid aside. naysayers go to amc, quick to point out we're not yet back to 2019 levels, pre-pandemic. and we're not. but we're so much stronger today than we were in the third and fourth quarter the 14 days we just came through is the highest two-week box office that our industry has seen since february of 2020, 20 months ago that's good news ifor us the question is, where do we go from here.
we have no intention of just bringing back the company that existed in 2019. the company raised so much money, our shareholders have armed us with what was at the end of the second quarter, a $2 billion cash and liquidity war chest to go out and transform our company and we have several big ideas that we're working on. >> from what to what we heard about football games. i'm a charger fan. can i go to an amc theatre soon and watch the chargers play tyler's washington football team >> you can at some of our theatres watch some nfl games each week. we are in discussions with the nfl right now to broaden our rights so that we can show all the games we want to show as opposed to just some of the games. >> where are you in these negotiations >> early >> but you're talking. >> we're showing nfl games right now, but we're early in our discussions with the nfl about broadening those rights.
we talked about professional sporting events. we're showing some ufc events and some wwe events and boxing events we're showing the metropolitan opera. we have something for everybody. we are showing concerts now. and we're talk k to some of the largest music companies about expanding our concert offerings. what that's doing is expanding our theatre business i think that there are other businesses related to what we to now, that are entirely dirfferen than what we do. we've made a lot of noise about getting hyper active and crypto currency there are a lot of reasons why amc could be a successful issuer of crypto currency as well as a redeemer that's just one of a half a dozen ideas that we're working on right now >> tyler >> interesting ideas there, adam nice to see you again.
the question is for right now and for the short-term immediate fu future, the core of your business is going to be showing movies the hollywood and the global film business supplying you with enough movies that people will come to pay and see? >> again, on the premise of your question, the good news for us is i think we're just weeks away from announcing a new business line for our company that is not running movie theatres as you've traditionally known them i'll come on cnbc and talk about that when it's time to talk about that >> anytime we'd love it >> thank you, tyler. i've known you and kelly a long time brian, too you know, i used to run bail 20 years ago and some of you guys used to ski out there. in terms of hollywood releasing movies, for a long time, they did. one of our problems was the pandemic but another of our problems was we just didn't have any titles
to play. we didn't have any cars in the showroom, aren't selling the cars but finally, finally, finally, movies are coming out. disney released a whole bunch of big movies recently. you know, black widow and jungle cruise eternals is coming in a couple of weeks, which the advanced are fabulous mgm gave us no time to tie and there is a flood of big movies coming between now and christmas. i saw the new ghost busters sequel it is a fabulous movie the new spider-man release that's coming out at christmas is going to be a very big movie. so finally it took us a long time to get here, but finally, hollywood is giving us product and you know, we are, we are now seeing
millions and millions of moviegoers at our theatres every weekend. >> it's great to see maybe i'll be able to pay and even convert crypto currency at an amc sounds like that's part of the plan watch my chargers. >> we've said we're going to accept, before year end, we will accept bitcoin, lite coin, ethereum, doje coin. all by right now for amc gift cards. by year end, bitcoin, lite coin, i think doje coin in q1. we're entering the 21st century in a big way >> adam aron, thank you for coming on. we'll see you at the movies. thank you. >> brian, thank you. adam, great to see you again very good skier, i should say. happen to know >> certainly showing the way that he can play the -- >> he can slalom with the rest
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here is your cnbc news update a judge showing frustration at the slow pace of jury selection for the trial three men accused of chasing and murdering ahmad arbery fewer than 100 jurors have been questioned a navy probe has found major failures by commanders, crew members and others in an arson fire that destroyed an assault ship this according to the associated press, for five days in july of last year. the report says one sailor set the fire, but three others directly contributed to the ship's losses. and a congressman says he expects to be indicted for lying
to the fbi it concerns comments made about the investigation and contributions funneled to him by a nigerian billionaire he says he's innocent and will fight the charges. >> thank you let's give you a check on the market as the dow struggles to keep up with the other indexes never the less, up 150 points. s&p 500 and the nasdaq right now higher by about two-thirds of one percent. to the bond market where yields are rise, too, and rick santelli is tracking the action for it at cme. >> hi, tyler yes. short maturities like two-year, five-year notes, their yields are a bit lower today. the prices are higher and if you go back to early spring of 2020, right as covid hit, that's the place where comping twos and fives have come down which means the curve is steepening because long data treasury yields are higher
hovering at 1.63%, we close, this would be the highest yield close for a ten-year note going back to june let's call it four months. and 161 is the current high close from weak jobs friday. if you look overseas, a different story. bund yields covering at minus ten basis points the second highest close really in the last couple of weeks, but we're very close to the highest yields going back to may of 2019 finally, it was all about the dollar strength, but not anymore. bund yields moving higher have reversed the year and pulled it up to a three-week high and finally, bond yields, 30-year bond, it is hovering a t some of the highest yields, but still comping back only a month. if it gets above 217, watch out. that's where the buy stops are back to you. >> thank you very much here are a couple of movers we're watching this hour first, penn national gaming up
about 4.5% now getting a bullish call this it is owner of bar stool. also higher are the social media stocks snap took a hit yesterday, but bouncing back today. up 1.5%. j jpmorgan saying it's the best play for back to school. you can read more in jim cramer's newsletter. and still ahead on "power lunch," the first bitcoin futures etf debuting today on the nyse what it means for crypto marketplaces plus, another week, another working lunch. jon fortt joining us with an in depth interview with a major tech ceo can't wait for what we discuss next (crowd cheering) - bito, bito, bito, bito! - [announcer] bito, the first u.s. bitcoin-linked etf.
and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced security integrated on our activecore platform so you can control your network from anywhere, anytime. it's network management redefined. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. oil markets closing. >> hey, kelly, it is in the green because after yesterday's slight halt in the upward trajectory, oil back at it today. once again dropping. the market continues to be driven by the supply and demand balance but as big energy names start reporting, we'll get a look at how they view production goals moving forward brent is up at $84.98.
wti is up for a gain of half a percent. this is wti's -- positive day in the last nine sessions others believe the rally looks stretched. ed moya saying today the market is quote, ripe for significant rounds of profit taking. >> thank you very much and now to crypto, the first ever bitcoin futures etf ticker bito rising about 3% in its new york stock exchange debut and helping send bitcoin prices above $63,000. piper sandler says one of the biggest beneficiaries will be coinbase because the etf brings more credibility, should boost trading volumes and provides investors with exposure to cryptos without many of the risks of owning the cryptos outright let's welcome richard.
welcome. good to have you with us what's good for bitcoin is generally good for coinbase, but i guess one could make the argument that if the, if futures etf or other etfs come along that are so convenient to invest in, if those products draw money away, they might be drawing it away from coinbase possible >> yeah, tyler, we actually note that as a small risk in the near term in our note today as you just explained, we think the bigger thing is the mainstream credibility that the approval of a bitcoin futures etf brings the overall asset class. you're going to see institutions and actually in an interview this morning with sec chair gensler, he talked about that. that certain institutions that have to follow the investment act of 1940 now you know, can
invest in a future, but they couldn't invest in pure bitcoin asset class. >> right let's drill down a little bit more on coinbase you are sort of high on the street in terms of your estimate for earnings i guess the consensus is above 47 you are at 208 why do you think they're going to do so much better than your peers do >> what you pointed out, higher is exactly correct we monitor volumes we think that volumes are going to be better than anticipated. i think coinbase, the numbers have come up when we first went out with our number about a month ago, overall estimates have come up 6% so they're certainly moving our way. i'm not sure whether other analysts, what they expect on expenses, but we think we've got a pretty good feel for their
volumes and that's the main driver of coinbase's revenues. >> and while they largely still trade with the price of bitcoin, they made this big announcement about nfts the other day i think open seed is the market leader how big do you think the market could get for coinbase >> well, they haven't launched it yet, the company you just mentioned i believe has somewhere around you know, 45,000 accounts or active users. when you look at coinbase, they have 7, you know, around 7.5 million active users so we think giving the sort of the customer base, this could be a big opportunity. and just coinbase overall, i think this nft market is you know, what it is, it's in the market for crypto. anything positive for crypto and
crypto credibility, which we think this etf points to that, and there will be other futures etfs we think about five over the next several weeks that will begin to trade so anything that legitimizes bitcoin and crypto currency we think in the long-term is good for coinbase >> thank you very much for being with us. you can read more about coinbase and some of the other biggest analyst calls of the day by going to cnbc.com/pro. >> and after the break, join us at our table for a working lunch and jon fortt sitting down with atlassian ceo, mike brooks he'll join us veo arwhli tshe at they discussed
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jazz >> he leads atlassian alongside scott farquire they've been friends since college and they started a software company if you haven't heard of them, it's because they're down under. literally, based in australia. the market cap's over $100 billion. so mike's got resources and he le likes to play basketball so when ryan smith approached him about forming a group and buying the utah jazz for $1.6 billion, mike told me he approached his wife with the idea, gingerly. >> the pitch is that it's a reasona reas reasonable business. she did say, okay, you love basketball and ryan's a good mate two other co-owners are ryan smith and ryan sweeney from xl and now we joined way to the ownership group and so it's a great bunch of guys. it's a really good group
and she's like, okay, yeah, you're good friends. it's reasonable. okay when you say 1.6, is that million? i was like, we're going to have to change just a little bit. not million. so that was a little bit of an interesting part of the conversation oh, oh >> yeah, a guy willing to try bold steps in fact, atlassian's whole approach to customer engagement is different for the enterprise software industry. they don't spend a lot on a salesforce the conventional wisdom is that you have to ramp up sales. >> our first order that came in without anyone talking to the customer was american airlines it came in on the fax machine and you know, we kind of asked the three or four people we had, anyone talk to american airlines anyone e-mail them we had zero contact with this
customer they had gone to our website downloaded the software. learned about its advantages themselves they had installed it, tried it, put in their data. used it. decided it was good enough and decided to buy it. gone to our website. decided not to use our online commerce form, which was probably a good idea downloaded a pdf, filled in with a pen and faxed it to us without ever talking to us >> that's old school 800 bucks. they had the good sense, atlassian, to raise the price after that he told me atlassian has continued its unconventional approach to sales and continued to build out collaboration tools in the pandemic era. they're adding features like backgrounds that allow workers to show their personalities. that sense of connection and belonging that can come from remote work is important even in software environments. the typical mix is to spend 15%
on rnd 35% of revenue on sales and marketing. they flipped that. spend 35% on rnd, 15% on sales and marketing. >> so i wonder, it sounds like that in that example of the american airlines thing that they would give away a kind of appetizer portion or let you try out the software do they still follow that as a way to scale their business? >> it's a lot more established now, the customer bases are, but they did grow out of that open source movement. on open source and on that software would just be d downloaded and used on the internet >> who are their competitors >> the slacks of the world microsoft teams. salesforce has its suite, but i mean, you look at atlassian, $100 billion they've kind of upended this model where there's a big cost that is not just creating the ideas. it's delivering them so they've got an advantage in being able to do it that way
>> and do you know why utah for basket -- he's australian. >> ryan smith -- >> he can get around >> i'm sure he can >> ryan smith from qualtrex is from utah. it's based there they've been friends so that was the connection >> but to build a company of that scale, i couldn't name other companies from australia at 100 billion i'm sure there's some mining companies. trying to think of one, but can't. there aren't a lot >> no. this is a unicorn among unicorns have to invent another, shimmer, i don't know in vaaustralia, he talks about they have this idea of tyranny of distance. you've got to figure it out when you're in the outback and there's a problem to solve they didn't have a lot like, especially starting in 2002. that's after the dot com bust.
they didn't raise a lot because they couldn't out there. they figured it out. >> and you don't think of, you certainly don't think of australia as a hyper center of software and, but there you go >> and now with remote work. hey. >> anywhere. >> sydney sounds pretty good >> so funny when his wife asked, 1.6 million. no no >> jon, always good to see you, man. thank you. all right, we're going to look at that one? netflix reports earnings after the bell investors waiting to see how the company plans to capitalize on the success of squid games our trading nation team will discuss, next.
month. when netflix shares stream lower after 6 of the last 7 reports is this a green light let's ask the team todd and gina. gina, you are a holder of shares of netflix it has a great run but do you think subscriber growth and content release is pric priced into the stock? >> i think a lot and subscriber growth has to slow and the next natural phase of the market is going to be a consolidation as a fragmented market. you have subscriptions to manage and will get old netflix made a bet in terms of debt to take on to do content creation and "squid game" and many other examples show that those bets are coming home their deal with walmart to productize "squid game" and the intent on expanding into game is
netflix's really big move into expanding what the exposure is not just streaming anymore but betting on product, a larger industry exposure. >> there are questions around competition, pricing power shares around $640 a share what's the next level to watch >> sure. in looking at communications this is a first, the top names of netflix and then another name to hold in the growth portfolio is live nation people returning to return i think it's going to be both. but as you mention if you look at the chart we have been range bound since summer of last year. we saw the growth in the pandemic to continue we did just break out of resistance that is considered support netflix started to show relative
strength to the s&p bench mark and the nasdaq they did spike the long term debt in the last five years but since 2020 they brought the ratio down to current levels of 1.13 and bringing up free cash flow and unwining that they have a ton of original content coming out and season four of "ozark" which is going to be huge i'm bullish. >> thank you for more head to the website, follow us on twitter back to you. >> thank you is united airlines planning on a resurgence in holiday travel demand? we'll show you the key metrics to watch when we come back >> and now, the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor.
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take a look at shares of united airlines they have more than doubled from the pandemic low last may and not hit the bottom line just yet, expecting to post a losing quarter after the bell but investors want to hear the guidance for the holidays and 2022 phil lebeau joining us with more. >> you talk about how they're expected to post a loss that is true and what's the path to profitability? when do they expect that to happen the revenue growth is key here and the fourth quarter outlook what do they expect for the holiday season and corporate and international travel remember the beginning of september a rise in covid cases? the airlines said near term bookings down and held up better than people expected and looking at october down 20% and looking
at united and showing you the last three months. they had a discussion about the vaccine mandate. they said you got to be fully vaccinated if you are not and don't give you an exception you leave the airline. about 260 employees in the process of terminating, separating them. we'll talk with scott kirby first on cnbc on "squak box. you don't want to misswhat scott has to say and the only place to hear from him before the conference call with annual e ists later on that morning what do they expect for the fourth quarter and then into early next year? >> elaborate if you wouldn't mind on the vaccine mandate for employees. controversial particularly among pilots at other airlines fill us in on the experience
with this. >> they've got about 98% of the employees who are vaccinated pilots, flight attendants, everybody. within that you've got about 2,000 who applied for exemptions and those people depending on what's approved go on a leave. a paid or medical or personal leave and then you have 260 and throwing out that number, could be closer to 240, 250 who didn't apply for exemption and clear from the beginning and maybe there's pilots there they basically are going to be let go which is what the company said they would be doing when they first sent this mandate out. >> thank you we'll be looking for the report today and then the interview
with mr. kirby tomorrow morning. thank you. >> you bet. >> he's gone he was there he was there all along all right. thank you for being here. >> it is fun working lunch. >> thank you for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts in a few seconds. see you tomorrow it certainly does. welcome to "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost at the new york stock exchange. upbeat earnings setting an optimistic tone today. the averages higher. the nasdaq holding up firm despite a rise in yields. >> i'm sara eisen. welcome. let's look at what's driving the action it's all about components. j&j higher p&g is weighing on the index bitcoin is approaching record levels again as the first bitcoin futures etf begins to trading. walmart is popping after goldman sachs added the stock to