tv Fast Money CNBC November 10, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
bond market is closed tomorrow it may be calm >> stocks will not necessarily have the leadership or pressure from the bond market also, i think you might have to look at the silver lining in disney as the conference call goes on. we will see joe back in about 30 minutes on "fast money" which starts now >> this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. our lineup tonight -- tonight on fast, burning rubber. affirm holdings, is this the stock to bet on? it's soaring in after hours earnings the numbers straight ahead later inflation nation, consumer prices seeing their biggest jump
in more than 30 years. how you can hedge yourself against rising prices. disney, the stocks are down 3% after reporting a major miss for disney plus subscribers. let's getright to julia. >> earnings of 37 cents per share instead of 50 that were estimated. they fell short of 18.8 billion. and that all important disney subscriber number. they added 2 million, which was in line with the slowdown the ceo warned about but it was still far less than the 9 million that analysts were hoping the company would add on the call which is happening right now, chapek says they are
focused on long-term numbers, not quarter to quarter he said they are still on track to get 240 to 260 million subscribers. he said they are continuing to invest on content. they originally said it would be between 8 and 9 billion by 2024. they said it will be more than that they said they will be focusing on local content as the primary contender. and he said they are seeing many opportunities ahead for sports betting. espn plus was an area of strength, adding more subscribers than expected and they havehigher average revenu peruser than anticipated he said this is their
opportunity to interact with people in a metaverse world. usd he said this is their opportunity to interact with people in a metaverse world. >> i want to know if there will be a disney world in the metaverse. you have to ask him that >> i am sure there is. >> do you focus squarely on the miss in disney plus? >> bob chapek, as much as we talk about disney connecting their worlds, right now it's about the dt krrchlc business a. as a disney shareholder, this multiple is not cheap. if you do it on a dtc basis where revenues are 7 1/2 times, you get just north of where netflix is trading you give them a better multiple
because of the growth. even though it's slower they are growing probably twice as fast as netflix is on an annualized basis, but bob chapek should have guided down all analysts. we got the sense these numbers would come in where they did i think a lot of the street hadn't downgraded. i think if you look around the street there were some that were late to downgrade the numbers. i think the stock will ultimately settle in thinking about the stock, it traded down on that guide somewhere around 169, 168. we will see where we go in the after hours. but i do think much of this was flagged. i do think that disney is the premium story when you combine both the flywe willheel of what have, the studio and growth. reaffirming 230 to 260 million
by 2024 is extraordinary growth. i think this is a plate that a lot of people didn't think they would be i stay as a shareholder. these were not great numbers, but we expected that >> disney plus has been in existence for about two years. is it fair to annualize the growth going forward and compare that to netflix? at some point you say disney's market is different in size than netflix. it doesn't have that mass appeal should we assume it's going to keep growing at the rate it's growing and-or reach netflix mass >> that's a really good question i don't know they can grow at the rate they were growing the pandemic, if you are setting up a streaming service, the pandemic was probably the greatest thing that could happen to you
hopefully we are not in that environment again. i think the momentum just has to slow i don't think we will be in that setup that was so favorable to them their execution was excellent. i don't begrudge them that the environment was just so good i don't know if they can expand their offerings to get a wider audience i thought last time chapek said that, i thought maybe he was sandbagging and it wouldn't be quite that bag, but now we know he wasn't. what he says is probably true. that's sort of interesting in this environment when you talk about spending a lot and your multiple is high. people are all right with that as long as the growth was there. i was surprised it wasn't down a little more than it is >> to tim's point, the guidance -- it came in where he
said it was going to come in that is an important point to make, pete but at the same time when you look at the business and know it will be spending more, but we don't have a figure. but it will be $8 to $9 billion. does this add up to this stock being valued where it is valued? >> you are talking to a guy who got out of it when it came up from the 90s now i am looking at it again but the problem is this is a company that for so many years going into the last couple years, this is a company that traded into the teens as far as pe when you look at this company and see where it's trading, and i get it, the streaming, something we thought they should have gotten in far longer -- not two years ago, they should have done it ten years ago. they have done well, but the deceleration process is something we did expect to see
especially if karen said we come out of the pandemic and people want to be out and about a little bit i think there are so many different elements to this earnings call that concern me, quite frankly. we are here trading in the upper 30s for pe net netflix has far more pricing power. when you look at this whole thing, i don't know, i still stick with netflix and i think eventually disney will be a buy, but i think it has to be the low 160s, maybe lower before it is an area i think it makes sense >> steve >> just to pick up on that technicals on disney, support is 167. that's the may low back to the january low is 160 that's where pete is looking to pick up the shares that's where i would be a buyer as well.
probably middle 160s but you go back to where dan lobe said they had to spend a lot more on streaming. the stock moved up 73% from that level to over $200 that's where it got frothy it has been building a base around these levels. it is not a terrible entry you want to give it a couple of days you could see lower prices, but what netflix doesn't have and disney does is that $16 billion in parks netflix is a pure play we all know that disney is never going to get a pure streaming value but what they are going to get are those added levers that net flicks doesn't have. it will never be valued the way netflix is >> unless it spins off the espn and abc business
that has been rumored. >> and as setting up for sports betting. we talked about ge breaking itself up. how about disney >> i would like to see that. their linear business is something we all know the direction that's been going. i do think there are better ways to monetize that i think disney has taken bold moves to restructure the company. this could make sense. i don't think disney would want to be in this sports betting world, distant from that squeaky clean disney brand pete makes a great point on the valuation. i think most people should be evaluating the company based on
a multiple of the dtc revenues and the legacy if do you that i think the legacy is still 16 or 17 times and 7 or 8 or 9 times on the dtc. i think you have to look at this company in different pieces. yes, maybe more value in different pieces >> we will ask that of the ceo that interview is coming up later on in the hour and shares are soaring almost 30% on affirm kate >> they had been down double digits heading into the results. they are more than making up with it after hours. it is up about 28%, almost 30% following a beat on revenue. also some new details on that amazon partnership that was announced in august we knew affirm was the giant's
first buy now, pay later partner. it is saying it is the exclusive partner for amazon through 2023. and it will be integrated into the digital wallet part of this deal, amazon is getting some affirm stock options as well. they will get some of these warrants up front, but there are different trunches for the core number, the first is 55%, reporting a strong outlook on revenue for the full revenue, looking at about $1.2 billion and another partnership shopify seems to be paying off increased from 6500 to more than
100,000 merchants on the platform they say that was due to shopify. customers up to 8.7 million million. they are only using this two or three times in a given year. so for the bigger purchases. the first fiscal quarter was up 2.7 billion. excluding peloton, its largest merchant by far, it was up 187%. shares are soaring after hours, up about 30% >> thanks. kate rooney. pete, do you like the farm >> i like it i have been in it. i am not in it now i missed the huge jump on the earnings call. you have to love a lot of what
is going on. i love the partnerships. when i hear about shopify and amazon, this is critical for them to grow in the future i think the sky is the limit we have to get a company that can make money in a different way than now but i think you are looking at a company in the early stages of growth huge numbers in terms of growth for a company like this. i like it. i am very disappointed i am not involved right now >> i heard this news about the amazon partnership and i thought that was interesting it's also interesting for affirm, it's putting its money where its mouth is in terms of finding partners here we have affirm, karen is this signaling a change in
amazon >> that's what i thought that's a huge stake for them between where affirm is trading and rivian is trading. it is interesting. they are using that power. i don't know if they are trying to with rivia yn, keep out the competition from buying the trucks, if they wan that product, or if it could be a mix of the two the numbers are astronomical one thing kate said that was interesting was about the number of times people use it, like for a big purchase like a bike or treadmill. i don't know if people will do the buy now, pay later that growth is extraordinary and i think we are in the early stages of the buy now, pay later
way of how people will finance things coming up, rifian, two of our traders buying into the ipo today. we will break down the action. plus brewing over patent rights for the covid vaccine. we will break down the details and we continue to watch disney after hours. down by about 4.6% y.e company's call is now under wa as soon as the call wraps up we will hear directly from the ceo. ? what's strong with me? me? with me!
welcome back to "fast money. rivian soaring let's get straight to phil with the details. >> today as rivian shares were soaring. i kept on hearing from people this valuation was crazy i would often say to people who stopped me and asked me this question, why is it crazy. they said they are losing numbers, don't have any revenue.
if you lock at the bottom line, at least in the third quarter is a loss of up to 1.28 billion revenue at zero. that's not a surprise. everybody knew this going in why is there so much anticipation for rivian, why so much appetite? part of it because of their order bank with 100,000 orders in their pocket from amazon, which is a large stakeholder, 20% and then you have the pickup they have begun rt-1s. but electric vehicle sales are accelerating we will be up to 1 million by
2022 this is the way it ended rivian a little behind general motors nobody is close to tesla, but rivian does have a larger market cap than ford. finally, ford and amazon as you look at how shares of rivian did. amazon has a 20% stake in rivian, worth about $17 billion today on paper and ford, its stake is around $10 billion. i'm curious to see what happens from here. amazon indicated they want to buy more shares and they are heavily involved in what rivian is doing ford no longer has a seat on the rivian board and there are questions how long it will keep its stake. no indication they will sell right away, but will they hold
it six months, a year or two, nobody knows melissa? >> thanks, phil. boxes up who are the two traders who bought on the ipo today. raise your hands please. i knew it. steve grasso, why go in? what price did you get it at >> i bought a third of what i wanted to buy at market on the opening. i didn't get anything allocated nor did i ask. i thought about this in the last week or so and i thought with the ev explosion we are seeing, i thought there would be tremendous hype around this stock. i said last week on the show i thought it would trade to 100 on the first day of trading when it was priced at 57 to 72 then it went to 120.
i think you will see this ebb and flow they talked about the original ipo price of $78 ultimately i think this will be a stock that will be two, three, four-hundred there is a difference between fundamental and stock price. the headway tesla made will make rivian's ascent that much more easy >> pete, you bought and did you sell >> i did not sell. i plan on holding it for a while. i got it at a discount from where it opened up even ford and gm, i think that is the direction we are going. my portfolio reflects that i have a lot of positions in ev
stocks, charging stocks. i am a believer in this whole space. when i look at the partnerships or ownerships, when you have amazon and ford -- and phil and i didn't get a chance to talk about this and i know one of the other traders did -- i don't think ford is looking to selling their stake. i don't think this is something they want to sell. this gives them one more leg in the ev space they would probably like to hold on to i think this space has a lot more upside. when you have amazon and the order of 100,000, i don't think that's the end of it i think that's the beginning of it i think that becomes a beautiful partnership with 20% ownership of the company they have confidence in the company and i think the company can go a lot higher. >> steve, did you sell also today? >> no, i didn't sell i am using the back stock of 20%
t'was the holiday season, and joy filled the town. except for scrooge with his perma-frown. no! the gift of a peloton bike did touch his soul. riding fast, flowing proud, getting hella swole. you can do it! i'm doing it! was a scrooge a new man? yes. oh without doubt! when your workout's a joy, it's a joy to workout.
the news closing near the lows of the day nasdaq closing down more than 1.5% treasury yield spiking dollar at its highest since august 2020. gold jumping to its highest price since june does today's data indicate that inflation is more than trance triand that the fed may be raising the interest rate faster than expected. >> inflation is significantly higher than what we are getting here but services component of this number, massive. if you look at the core, you were 5.4 on an annualized when you strip out where we were in the headline we were at 4.2 a month ago this is where the stuff is -- these are exclamation points these are numbers that are
not -- central banks have one of two mandates some have two, some have only one. the ones with only one are here to fight inflation they are here to stimulate growth they have created a bubble we have to be vigilant to see which parts of the next wave of inflation is coming. labor inflation is not showing signs of being transitory. this is a social issue if you think about where labor has been for minimum wage earners, it has been impossible to make a living wage. this is a social issue, something that is not changing soon good for those making a living wage, awful for the economic outlook where inflation is >> pete, what did you make of the numbers? are we back in a world where
stokes go higher, tech stocks go lower. >> to some degree. i am not sure tech stocks have to take a beating. the interesting thing is, i think we should have expected to see a number somewhere close to what we got today. over the last year we have watched oil prices go from a year ago 38 up to 85 just over the last month or so we went from 77 to well over 80. we should have expected some of this it is not just crude it's copper. tim talked about wage inflation. we are talking about a lot of areas of the marketplace i have not bought into this whole idea that it's transitory. i think we have to work through it and i think the fed will be part of this thing we are in a gingerly sort of
interesting spot because even as the markets were going up, just two days ago we were looking at volatility start to pick back up again. and today we are back in the mid 18s to upper 18s and a sneeze away from 20 that's something we all have to keep our eye on as well, the volatility index that will give us a measure of some of the concerns out there and the move that might be expected. >> bitcoin hitting its highest level on record, just shy of 70,000 many think crypto is a hedge against inflation. why is that? professor finerman is in class yt is that >> institutions who think there is inflation think we have to
have exposure inflation anyway if you don't have it, that's not great. inflation, for crypto by its very design was hopefully, when they designed it for currency. and bitcoin, there are only 21 million that will ever be created and 18 million have been mined. so it doesn't have the ability to inflate by printing more. all assets seem to be going up at least they were, when we talked to producers around 2:00. all things, bitcoin, gold,
stocks, housing, everything. >> steve >> i would be a buyer of companies -- pete started the conversation off with companies that are asset heavy i am long those names i have talked about for a while wrk, which is west rock. you could even dabble in dow which is a chemical name they want to raise prices and have the ability to raise prices quicker than the actual input cost as that's rising. you don't want to be a buyer of tech companies because you are paying for future cash flow. then the stock should in theory be lower but we haven't seen a push in the 10-year yield so it has thrown everything on its head.
unless the 10-year higher pushes higher, these value assets will move sideways until we see real explosion in this temporary transitory explosion crypto and the metaverse you can listen by following the "fast money" podcast wherever you get your podcast coming up, disney ceo. and a battle over the covid vaccine. details next [ watch vibrates] proactive notifications from fidelity keep you tuned in all day long. so when something happens that could affect your portfolio, you can act quickly. that's decision tech, only from fidelity.
in a battle over one of the key patterns behind it we learned from the head of the nih they may take this to court. he said -- he would just heard back from moderna -- mel, it's not just bragging rights at stake. this is a vaccine that could draw up to $18 billion in sales this year and up to $22 billion next year. having nih scientists on the pat e ent could allow the government to have some say in its license.
over the last two months the stock has lost half its value. it has been a few bad weeks or month for moderna. >> future revenue may be in play, but could past revenue be in play as well with the government claiming that some of that revenue is due to the government versus moderna? >> potentially gilead has a court case with an hiv drug we will just have to see how this all shakes out in court >> fascinating story thank you. tim, what do you think does this change how you lock at moderna? >> not necessarily today
i think that third quarter a week ago is how you change and obviously the stock changed. 50% in 50 days is extraordinary. i think two things are going on. the downshift from pandemic to endemic which we are getting and hearing that from people like scott gottlieb is not good news for moderna. they have been leading on the vaccination front, not on the seasonal flu shot front. i think what the market is doing is saying this is a company that has done extraordinary work, put themselves possibly at the front of the line in terms of their cutting edge biotech but they have a platform going, a lot of things in the work so to speak, but you cannot attach it to valuation. i think more downgrades are
coming and i think this is based on their downgraded outlook. >> karen, you noticed a pop in pfizer today, more than 3% >> i was wondering -- i don't know if that's because low multiple stocks were in vogue or if moderna, if there would be pressure on price if the government got a hand in it making pfizer a beneficiary. i had a question for meg, but we already said good-bye. is this technology used more broadly if any other pandemic comes along or is it very tecific to readytreating covid >>hat's an excellent question. bob chapek will join us live
you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire i'm 53, but in my mind i'm still 35. that's why i take oste bi-flex to keep me moving the way i was made to, it nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long term. osteo bi-flex, plus vitamin d for immune support.
4.5% the call just wrapped up let's go to julia who is live with bob chapek. >> bob, thank you so much for being here straight on the heels of your run, glad to have you here. >> nice to be here >> the numbers were smaller than the 9 million analysts were anticipating and concerns about how you will get to the long-term goals over the long-term, how are you going hit the numbers? >> we reaffirmed our guides of 230 to 260 million households. we believe there are two drivers, the first into new markets. we will double the markets that disney plus is in in international territories by 2023 and the second part will be
fresh content across our wonderful disney franchises. >> a question as you think about investing more in local language content. that was a big piece of news do you anticipate being able to rise prices internationally? international has lower domestic users. >> we are making a substantial investment in local content. he we do believe he would offer a tremendous price value to consumers around the globe all of our research indicates that as such we think we have some head room as far as pricing in the future >> head room, but you just had this big discount you were offering for disney plus what is that telling us as far
as how they are doing so far in this quarter and how you are doing internationally? >> that promotion was planned a long time ago. if people in two years haven't tried disney plus, we wanted today give them incentive. it is only for 30 days and we believe a lot of those will stay on once they see how fantastic it is. we believe that because our turnover rate is low >> one area of strength in those streaming numbers were espn plus better subscriber rates and user you reiterated your commitment to sports in general what does that mean in terms of sports rights? nfl ticket, the sports rights are out there. are you determined to get there? >> we are in discussion with the nfl for those rights we think they would make a good
addendum to our espn plus given the nature of what they are. we are bullish on sports he would mentioned during the earnings call the idea of gambling as a new found revenue stream which we think is spectacular. but with every deal we cast over the last year and a half, every one of them has a significant component for the dtc sports world. we are bullish on espn plus growth in the future >> do you have any more insight when you might separate espn plus in terms of taking some of those rights on tv and shifting them over to streaming >> we are going to let the consumers be our guide the more they try it and enjoy it, gives us the wind in our sails to believe that's where the consumer is going to go. we take a bit more every month and quarter into espn plus
so far it has been a very successful experiment. >> you have amazon buying sports rights, apple in the running for those nfl sunday ticket rights and netflix which has been investing so much in content and forecasting a strong fourth quarter. how do you see your services playing into this increasingly competitive landscape? >> i don't think it's just about distribution i think it's about the brand if i were a league i would want my sports rights to sit with espn because of what we can do the monday night football with e eli peyton, tremendous innovation i think if we can do that as a walt disney couple with espn for a sport, that's where i think the rights should go >> in terms of streaming services in general, do you see
your growth coming up against the growth of netflix? is this market getting too saturated for streaming in general? >> i have said before i believe there will be a couple players at the end of the day i believe will do well and robust. i think disney will be one of them when you have the combination of our brands, franchises, storytellers, plus our commitment, i think we will be there. >> talk to us about the theme park greater than anticipated loss. what are you seeing next year? >> great demand. thrilled with the demand not just internationally but domestically, but particularcally because of our guest improvements not only do people want to go, but when they do, they want to
engage in disney >> wihat is your vision for disney in the metaverse. >> my vision is to use disney as the platform for the metaverse i think it creates a three-dimensional canvas for story tellers to paint so we can create other experiences that others have defined as a book experience or park experience. our creators are biting at the bit to get into the metaverse. >> headset, goggles? >> yes and no. it could be that, but i don't think every one of those experiences is going to have to have a headset that is not our plan >> from the virtual world to the real world, the constraints you are feeling from supply chains,
how are those impacting your business >> we talked about what is happening to the ard market because of constraints, things like automobiles with chips in it we are seeing a little bit of supply constraint in our product businesses we are into 163 categories all over the world but our underlying demand is strong because of the strength of our franchises. >> you just had a big release. do you have other movies coming out which will be an exclusive window you said on the call you want to have flexibility going forward, how many will have simultaneous releases or what will it look like >> i think the consumer will drive us there just like throughout the pandemic. i think flexibility is in order. we take the reads from the marketplace and make our
decisions individual title by individual title i think it would be a mistake to look at any one and extrapolate and say that's disney strategy disney strategy is going to follow the consumer and adjust as consumers change. >> thanks, bob, for talking to us melissa, back to you >> thank you very much tim seymour, did you get the answers you wanted to hear as a shareholder? >> the commitment to content, i think disney holds the brand they are in position to move with technology. as bob said, we will listen to consumers and see -- espn is a powerful brand in sports
they control the levers here new markets and content are keys to the stock they have given you the sense that the second half of 2022 will be exciting >> pete, you said you would be looking to get in around here. did he say anything to convince you either way >> i think bob is always clear about the direction. we talked that earlier, about the earnings, about what he promised about what's going on that's exactly right i think we need to listen to him. i think he is doing an outstanding job about listening to every aspect of the business. he touched on the metaverse and everything it's the betting and sports and content. i am impressed with what he had to say i do think it's more stretched, but i am getting more interested tim mentioned the second half of 2022 that makes me think i have a little bit of time to think about this, not something i need to do in the next 24 hours
look at mastercard jumping today. jim is talking with the ceo. if you are not signed up for the cnbc investing club, you are missing out. the information you need is on the screen options traders are betting the pain is just beginning for igv. >> we saw 5.6 times the average put volume we saw over 5600 trade for about $2.10 per contract as a part of that volume, buyers of the puts are betting that the weakness we saw today could continue through the end of next week the buyers of those puts are already profitable this trade is up about $825,000
for the buyer already. karen, where are you on that trade that you had on? >> i am short that igv against a lot of the fame names, but i a little more than doubled the position, very near the end of the day. i think the pain is just starting multiples from run so far. i'm short. >> mike, thanks for the action be sure to tune in for the full show friday at 5:30. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley. i'll shoot you an estimate as soon as i get back to the office. hey, i can help you do that right now. high thryv! thryv? yep. i'm the all-in-one management software built for small business. high thryv! help me with scheduling? sure thing. up top. high thryv! payments? high thryv! promotions? high thryv! email marketing? almost there, hold on. wait for it. high thryv! manage my customer list? can do. will do. high thryv! post on social media? hash-tag high thryv my friend! get a free demo at thryv.com.
look at value stocks less than ten times earnings, almost 4% dividend great management team so walgreens boots, and great job by julia with bob watching "fa. "mad money" with jim cramer tarts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica other people wants to make friends, my job is not just to entertain but teach, call me 800-743-cnbc and tweet me at jim cramer it is not time you see a billion dollars compan