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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  March 4, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

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spyders is the way to do it. >> you did say that? >> yes then cleveland-cliffs. thanks, everybody. have a great weekend "the exchange" is now. >> that was a heavy sigh i'm kelly evans. stocks have been in the red all days ago long after russian troops occupied that nuclear plant in ukraine european stocks just posted their worst week since march of 2020 if you were hoping for a swift resolution, our russian expert is with us, and she says the war is helping putin's popularity at home what would it cost if we had to do without russian oil supplies someone says $200 a barrel is
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the price of freedom another super-strong jobs report we'll talk about jobs, wages we begin with stocks falling sharply. maybe part of that -- maybe a bit has to do with the jobs numbers that kelly just alluded to this not that we had a job report in recent memory because of the tensions and the war in russia/ukraine is probably permeating throughout the market less than 200 points to the down side 4331 to the --, off about 0.75%. the underperformer down about 1.25%, well off the session lows, 13,370 down roughly 167 if you like to
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look at points if you look at one of the weaker spots, it has toe consumer discretionary, and some of these names tied to aparity. pbh corps is down nearly 10% ralph lauren down 6%, tapestry, down about 6%. capri holdings, formerly known as michael kors, down. and the xrt that tracks retail is still down about 1.5%, so keep an eye on those consumer discretionary names. you can limit in travel and some of the booking names taking a look at the macro trade from a risk proxy perspective. government bonds are the place people go to in times of turmoil. they want to seek safety over the course of the last one week, you can see the range. lows we saw we are roughly about
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168. we're up to about 174. over the last week there's been a more, at least shorter to medium-term buying of the safety of government debt pushes those yields lower, despite the fact that inflation continues to run at multi-decade highs, so again, the jobs report, hot inflation kelly, yields on the ten-year, 174. >> that's a good place to leave it. >> a lot of headlines. ukrainian president zelenskyy speak just moments ago nothing is threatening the safety of europe's largest nuclear power plant. let's get to eamon javers for all the of the latest details. eamon? >> that's right, kelly just within the past couple minutes, we heard from volodymyr zelenskyy in kyiv, speaking in
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ukrainian, he asked people to continue to fight the russians he said he is sure that ukraine will prevail meanwhile, u.s. ambassador to the u.n., linda thomas-greenfield called on russia to withdraw forces from the nuclear plant and allow medical treatment for injured personnel and ensure that operators have full access to the site >> by the grace of god, the world narrowly averted a nuclear catastrophe last night, russia's attack last night put europe's largest nuclear power at grave risk it was incredibly reckless and dangerous. >> and secretary of state antony blinken braved the quick and decision i was response so far from the european union, but the key to this will be to keep the pressure up over time, because especially it seems like things can guesswork in ukraine before they get better. >> we have to sustain this until it stops, until the war is over,
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russian forces leave, the ukrainian people regain their independence, their sovereignty, their territorial integrity. we're committed to to doing that. >> and kelly, blinken underscored the emotional nature, saying officials were motivated by the ukrainian foreign minister who showed diplomats pictures from ukraine, including one of a father grieving over the body of his dead child, with blood still on the sheets that draped her, he said blinken said that was a reminder of what the western effort is all about, kelly. >> what should we expect out of washington as for next steps here, eamon? >> the next thing we'll see is likely to see president biden show up on camera. this is a previously scheduled event related to the economy, but we expect he'll get some questions about ukraine and potentially a u.s. response. we note the president was just on the phone with the leader of poland in the past few moments, so biden clearly coordinating
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the western allies, trying to make sure there's a united europeanian/american response to this we'll wait to see any details about cha that response will be. we heard from nato earlier today, say no matter what we have seen so far, nato will not put boots on the ground, not put planes in the sky for fear of a wider european war. >> thank you, eamon. ukrainian president telling europe, quote, they need to wake up fred kemp, of course, we'd like to stay in our lane as this relates back to the markets. european stocks posted a 7% stock this week, worst since march of 2020. they're absolutely bearing the brunt of this right now. >> yeah, look, ukraine is in europe so we have to watch europe very closely. it's not been a geopolitical actor since world war ii, really it's now stepping up for the
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first time, you're seeing germans doing things that none of us could have expected two weeks ago, a special defense investment of $100 billion, the freeing up of selling weapons to ukraine, this suddening down of nord stream 2 is something that nobody could have expected the question is, can this mark the end of european am bifflens in general because we're going to be faced with this as a kaling not just for days and weeks, but for months and years that's the real big question the other question people are asking, will they move to sanctioning oil and gas in one way or another right now, crowd that coin from that direction, but if it becomes more apparent, i think there will be more public pressure on europe. >> that's where the rubber hits the road, fred
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this is where angela merkel left office with over 70% approval rating, yet was response for germany's independence on natural gas here what should we look to europe to do, given the prices they're paying, to ensure they have energy security for the decade to come, if they are going to take a more muscular stance against russia >> the transition will take some time you've got a majority of the cold for germany coming from russia you've got 55% gas, and the majority of oil. italy gets 40% of its gas from russia this will not change overnight they have to under this is a geopolitical down side and they have to fix it over the short term, there's also the question of weapons there are migs, different bombers, that are in european union, but the eastern part of it, can that reach ukraine on
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time there's a great needs for javelins, drones, mainly coming from turkey, a great need for stingers, can that get to ukraine in time? the longer it's extended, the more at the time help ukraine, but russia is making slow, ugly process. we're all watching what people are calling full chechnya, if they send the full amount of the military. >> if they're spending more on energy, defense, where is that money coming from? what are they spending less on i doubt they can increase taxes or do anything more on that front, can they? >> the taxes are pretty high in europe, as you note. the growth is not particularly fast what they can do is ease their debt levels. the european union has set debt levels at certain levels, the
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germans are already moving in that direction you can certainly lighten that up for a while to get to 2% spending and above but you're right there's not a lot of room to do things in the long run unless you're changing things structurally, for sure. >> i've heard investors who are actually recommending exposures to european stocks, because they like all of what you're describing that is taking place, that they have come together to some extent, but what about the u.s. in the meantime we're pretty insulated from everything that's happening. does that make us a relatively stronger performing economy, or do we still have to worry more about commodity headwinds? 7% of our oil comes from russia. there's no chance that the u.s. is going to cut off that unless the europeans act, and it doesn't look like they're going to act for now what's positive is we have not worked this closely with this
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sort of unity across the atlantic for a long time you can imagine a trade investment used growing out of this, maybe a green investment -- green technology deal some people are talking about that so far republicans and democrats so like haven't liked trade yields so much, but i don't know how you can compete with china and russia if we don't open the lines. i think it's inevitable the defense spending in europe will go up in the wake of all of this >> absolutely. fred, great to have you on today. thanks so much >> fred kempe of the atlantic council. >> no dowel, what could putin's next move be here? let's bring in nina cruschev
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>> in some quarters, among some people, it does enhance. when the war is being fought, it's, so the russians are technically not now that the still is being bombed.every sins speaking the other version of the events rather than the creme ling version of events now have been completely ran. the radio stations, the news,
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tv, banned not only from their radio waves, but also from youtube. so it's all closed now facebook is next, maybe it already has happened so no information is supposed to trickle down for the russian people to be told what really is going on now they feel, and maybe feel they just have to rally around the flag. >> you just mentioned it we'll get that breaking news nina, stay right there julia piercen has the latest on facebook's operations in russia. >> that is absolutely right. russia has blocked facebook in the country. the media regulator saying that they have seen 26 cases of discrimination against russian media information resources, and that in recent days, the social network has restricted access to accounts from news agencies, sputnik, russia today and others, saying the restrictions
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are prohibited by federal law. on meta's influence persons involved, so this is what the russian regulator is saying. we have reached out to facebook's parent company meta for a comment on this. this e. of course, comes as meta and facebook have been working to tamp down on misinformation and disinformation coming out of those russian propaganda and russian-owned media companies. >> nina, this is exactly what you were describing. now it's russia blocks facebook, and you think the primary reason here is more or less to control the flow of information that gets to the russian people. >> absolutely, it is it is an absolute control. it seems to me that a few days ago i did say the russians like to reciprocate if there's sanctions, they're going to sanction back or forbid back, say the russians cannot
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travel to europe, because they cannot get visas, so russia will say you cannot get travel to europe, because the whole world is against us, something like that basically it seems that, for now at least, putin has doubled down not only on the ukraine assault, but also on the complete assault and complete suppression of whatever was level of russian civil society. in fact, yesterday, the oldest human rights organization, very important human rights organization memorial, which was founded by the father of human rights, was closed, was searched, maybe today even, i don't remember exactly people were harassed, those who work there so it really is a very important message to the russians altogether, is that you take our version of events or you really will not havefully potential life whatsoever. it's going to be north korea on
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steroids that's the message of putin. >> how do you read the activity of the ukrainian nuclear plant >> well, also very interesting, because in the russian version of events, it's actually the ukrainian saboteurs who did this so basically it's almost like alice, russia through the looking glass. so the reality is presented as a real one it does seem that most of reality is playing out like in vladimir putin's head. yesterday he spoke and was very firm and very kind of very forceful, in saying that everything is going according to plan, and we are eliminating the nazi elements in ukraine, and we are not going to stop until the very end in fact, he spoke to the chancellor of germany and
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reiterated the same thing, without even showing that he's willing to back off. it does seem this whole with the potential nuclear preparedness, is you really want to test me how far i can go. >> and what do you says to those hoping for a swift resolution? >> clearly there's not there were two rounds between negotiations between ukraine and russia, and they are preparing for the third one. there's still, as always, very conflicting information coming out from the ukrainians and the r russians so far they created the evacuation corridors according to the ukrainians, the russians no longer want to
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de-nazi-fy ukraine so this conflict seems to be actually gearing up rather than slowing down, at least for now. >> we'll left it on that sobering note. nina, great to see you again thank you so much. >> thank you. one analyst crunched the numbers, and seg if the world wants to stop using russian oil, they'll have to pay $200 a ba barrel we'll also speak to former cea chair jade furhmam about the jobs report. nasdaq is still the worst performer, other than the russell, both down about 1.5%. we're back in a moment
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welcome back to "the exchange." while there's been calls for sanction russian oil companies, the white house doesn't seem to be on board. >> we don't have a strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy that would raise prices at the gas pump for the american people, around the world,
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because it would reduce the supply available it's as simple as less supply raises prices. >> house disruptive would such a move be? our next guest crunched the numbers. chris wheaten is an oil and gas analyst as stifel. how do we get to that figure of $200 a barrel? >> it's pretty simple. if you want to cut all of russia out of the global oil market, and remember they're second largest behind saudi arabia, about 7.5 million barrels a day, you need to pull all the levers of supply to put as much oil into the market as possible, but you also need to kill demand that supply isn't enough to pull all of that 7 po the 5 million barrels a day out of the market. if you look at where it kicks in, 2008 when oil prices were now at a peak of $400, $450 a barrel, adjust that for
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inflation, that's how you get to $200 barrel a day. that's not a price we think the global economy can afford. >> quick note on this, there's been a lot of discussion about that this week, how much demand destruction did we see, and would you dis entangle it from the u.s. was already in recession and about to hit the depth of the financial crisis? >> it's different to disentangle, but the real impact came in the second half of 2008 where we saw it really kick in, particularly obviously in that period of september leading into the fourth quarter you are talking about having to take, we think, not just demand growth out this year, bringing it down to zero, but probably take another 2 million barrels a day off the market on top of that, if you said to take all of russian oil off the market that takes oil demand back to
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2017, 2018 that's an estimation of just how much you have to kill demand if you want to keep russian oil off the oil market globally. >> this is a really important point. you're saying there's really no other way to fill the demand you have to just basically get to a pain point where people are driving less, businesses are usual a bit less maybe this is a useless thought experiment, but only if the u.s. stopped its imports of russian oil, maybe we hold the rest the global supply to neutral >> actually the biggest cusses are unsurprisingly europe. firsti it's about 30%, and also china, where it's about 150% to 15%. that's where the customers would first see the action there i think we're already starting to see that.
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just in the last hour, there was a report of a conquering hero's crude, that's the russian brand, so it's about three quarters of the sticker price you see on the screen i've never seen that kind of discount before. so it looks like market players are already -- russian oil, and the fear of sanctions is already pushing oil out to the market, whether or not sanctioning get imposed. >> true. you say $200 a barrel is the price of freedom what happens if we are muddling through instead and continue to have some reply, with a major asterisk, where do you think the oil price would be headed then >> i still see there's risk of to $120 -- talki ing brent term here, $130, $150 a barrel quite easily you have to pull an awful lot of
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supply, if you want, as you say, to muddle through, to offset some of that russian supply. i think that's muddling-through scenario you're talking about needing all of opec barrels back, u.s. shale to keep accelerating its drilling, and i suspect we'll see more of that, as we go into the rest of this year also, you might need to keep some barrels back from iran as well iran currently is exporting around a million barrels a today almost exclusively to china. i think we maid need all of a million barrels a day from iran as well, which is ironic, given the circumstances. russia, then, sending oil to basically china and india, probably, as the major export markets then that's how i see the muddling-through scenario playing. >> not a great scenario. ceo of pioneer telling "the financial times" u.s. could be
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unable to replace crude supplies the pressure is absolutely on. thank you so much. >> thank you for your time all right. still ahead, we'll check on the semiconductors, on pace with their worst quarter since 2018 we'll look at the chip makers and suppliers as the key metal continues to skyrocket first, last night the attack on the nuclear plan sparks the fears of the continued use of aa wer energys por source stay with us (vo) right now, the big switch is happening across the country. small businesses are fed up with big bills and 5g maps that are mostly gaps—
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welcome back, everybody. dow is down 246 points, off the session lows, but still hanging in with declines let's check the sectors this week, where we see energy and utilities the biggest gainers, financials with the longest losing streak since 2020 stocks with the most revenue exposure to russia are down. citi's investor day this week also piling on to broader concerns about their future amid rates and russia checking out some of the speculative tech plays, arkk innovation etf is down lower today. down 35% this year, not getting much of a reprieve as you can
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see from rates now to kristina partsinevelos for a cnbc news update. >> thank you, kelly. the world narrowly averted a nuclear catastrophe, that's how the u.s. ambassador to u.n. is describing it. there was a rare emergency meeting of the u.n. security council. there's been a joint statement condemning russian attacks, and calling for additional sanctioning against russia on the news, ukrainians are fighting back by efforts for some americans to send guns in that fight that's took at 7:00. a judge has approved a fix to the nfl's billion dollar concussion settlement with player many black players were denied payments because of race-based testing. saying that black people start with a lower cognitive ability
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and florida governor rick desantis says he will sign a bill banning abortions after 15 weeks. kelly, back over to you. still ahead, stocks under pressure with the ukraine war overshadowing a strong unemployment report. more jobs, and slowing wage growth, does it give the fed the clear? we'll discuss that, next every big idea every game changer every "how'd they do that?" starts here the blank page artists and writers know the tyranny of it well but so do developers, data scientists, ctos the new creators to them, we say let's create something that changes everything ♪ ♪ ♪
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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody we want to look at how it's all stacking up. here's a quick sense of some of the biggest conch consequential reports here so let's start with the jobs report this morning. super strong, 678,000, you think that's amazing, about you it's going to veer over toward the bat category it was almost too strong
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average hourly earnings, that's good, not too hot, not too cold. this is going in the middle camp that's still a have i high number case-shiller which would really say core logic, plus 19% year on year is great if you own a home, but bad for what we said to you happening with the market. the horrid part of the fed tightening is to take some steam out of the mortgage rates are down, with home prices at a new record supplier deliveries, this one unquestionably bad, rose another half point, that tells you companies are still seeing real supply problems that will keep this economy a bit out of whack right now. so professor the practice,
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former chairman of the council of economic advisers sunday president obama, jason, a great day to have you here, when everyone assumes because of the severity of the ukraine crisis, the fed might back off, but this data -- >> the u.s. economy has an extraordinary amount of momentum, you know, adding nearly 600,000 jobs per month, month in and month out no matter what is going on jay powell said they're going to wray rates by a quarter point at the march meeting. this virtually guarantees that. >> it guarantees a quarter-point hike, but what about the real-world reaction to unpredictable events why can't they afford to sit back and go, you know, we'll wait a while to see how it turns out. >> the last time we had a financial crisis in russia was 25 years ago the fed ended up cutting rates
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to deal with long-term capital management and the fallout of that russian debt crisis nothing like that is going to happen on this time, but it may give them a bit of pause on the path they would otherwise be we'll see. by may, by june, if the uncertainty starts, if ukraine is down, if inflation remains hot, we may start seeing half-point hikes at some meetings would you basically say they're un undeniiably under the curve here we rarely ever had a print like this, let alone this late into the labor recovery. >> no doubt they were behind the curve. they've been catching up quickly. they understand the problem our economy faces is about inflation right now, now about employment
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right now, the most important thing is they're telegraphing that path, and they'll raise rates at every meeting until inflation gets under control >> they're still at 5.1% year on year is it your expectation that will drop below 4% any time soon? >> i thought -- if i was looking at it from the perspective of the fed, i would actually have that more in the good category than you did we had high wage growth for most of the months last year that are in the 12-month number the big news is there was basically no growth that hat in the month of february. i think that's an aberration this thing bounces around from month to month i expect wages ar 5.5 or 6% growth this year if we get that, that's
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consistent with inflation, but, you know, maybe at the be lower than that. certainly employers, if you ask them, they're not planning to raise wages as much as i said. >> that means it's not enough to call it a trend. oh, to be clear. february, you know, if you had asked me yesterday, i would have said 6% wage growth. after i saw the february number, i'm now down to 5.8% wage growth a bit less inflation i thought, but only a bit >> jason, thanks so much for your time today. it's good to see you. >> see ya. we got a news alert on russian stocks dom chu is here with the story. >> they're being removed from a lot of indices this is s&p/dow jones indices, the company that keeps and maintains some of these equity indices around the world
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what they are announcing is they're going to remove all of the stocks that are either listed in or domiciled in russia from any of the standard indices that have them as a part of them, including emerging markets indices, certainly specific once instead, what they will do is make them their own stand-alone entity if you will the reason is pretty straightforward and simple there's no trading in moscow our anywhere around the world. they've been halted in many places around the world, so the accessibility of those stocks is very much in question. we don't know when they'll trade again or in which location because of that, they're going to remove all of them so people can invest without having to deal with the headaches of trying to fick out whether the stocks actually have liquidity or not, russia becomes its own stand-alone entity
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so a big development here. by the way, this all takes place ahead of the market open on march 9th. back over to you. >>dom, thank you very much still ahead uranium stocks are falling off following last night's attack on the nuclear plant. we're going to look at why, which to go stocks are most impacted, why investor sentiment could shift over the long run. stay with us - in the last two years, we quadrupled our team and the pace we're growing, i couldn't keep up without ziprecruiter. they do the legwork and they get my job posting
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two etfs that track this, both down sharply at this hour. the company losing the most klutz next-gen, holding up a bit better here, but i'm told that this was not a nuke already incident what we are seeing is simply a knee-jerk reaction around the building out prior to building today, these stocks had been moving higher, and both etfs are are up and it includes maximizing output from existing nuclear plants.
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ke kelly? >> what's so interesting about this timing, maybe not coincidental, is people were just having this conversation, you mentioned the iaea, but even to bring the nuclear plants back online, now a situation comes about, and then it's just uneed, and is it a strong case, and also polarizing, and some of the regulators may want to bring up regulat regulators, but there's a lot of pushback, but there's other countries, also explores nuclear. another key player is russia they control about 35%, so that's another factor at play here when we talk about moving away from dependency on russia so there's a lot of factors, energy policy is very complex and very slow moving, as you know the stocks a little quicker. still ahead, the major averages on track for that you
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are fourth down day, and one portfolio manager staying positive on growth and the u.s. consumer we'll tell you where she's buying, next
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what are we talking about? on tuesday we fell 597 points. on wednesday we rallied by 596 with inflation high, rate hikes lurking where does it leave investors? here to help us is joann feeney. it's good to see you you are focusing on the u.s. consumer is that going to be fruitful in this environment >> kelly, we have seen a lot of changes in the last few months and the growth opportunity for investors clearly is temporarily being disrupted. consumer does remain strong in the u.s. but the higher inflation numbers are eating away at the purchasing power and has to be careful to figure out the lower end of the income
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distribution consumer will have to back off and you look at where are firms spending broadcomm reported last night on the back on enterprise spending continuing to grow because they deferred so many info tech investments for the infrastructure and that's a great place to look. we have owned that stock for a long time and it's a nice dividend yield for those looking for income. >> talk about an under the radar story story. that can be a play you would do cyber, defense. right? >> we have owned them for a long time they're insurance against this disruption in markets and secular growth opportunities a smaller company like kratos
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makes drones for flying alongside of piloted jets and do work for the government, internationally and the u.s. they are seeing a big lift because drones are probably a biggest area of defense spending around the world. >> you mentioned energy and banks are go-to there and surprised or appreciate seeing looking into paypal for ways to start moving on the big drop we have seen in tech. where else might you be poking around for investors >> there is a number of themes that happened since november we saw a tech sell-off that world changes a bit people are startingin to realiz
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that sell-off will slow down paypal for example has a headwind from ebay rolling off but we see companies and consumers switch more to digital payments around the world. paypal is so well positioned for that beyond that, a company like en encino looking beyond the current disruption which is horrible the u.s. economy in a recovery mode. we saw that in the jobs numbers this morning there's good things that give support to equities at this point in time but this is a period of disruption. the back half of the year we expect the growth names to outperform. >> we appreciate having you today. thank you.
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>> you bet. both ukraine and russia are suppliers for the stech sector. we're back in a moment here on the "the exchange. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit and get started today. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay...
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welcome back we have an update on russia blocking facebook which is just happening in the hour or so. let's get to julia boorstin. >> meta parent facebook, facebook parent meta responding to the news that facebook will be blocked in russia president of global affairs of meta saying soon millions of russians will be cut off of information, deprived to connect with families and friends and silenced from speaking out saying we'll restore the services to be available to people that safely express themselves and organize for
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action facebook has an estimated 7.5 million users in the country of russia according to insider intelligence much smaller than youtube and instagram. instagram has about 53 million estimated users in the country and youtube 77 million facebook very important platform you see shares down about 1.5% no word on whether the russian regulators plan to block instagram, as well. >> for those viewers wondering where the u.s. firms pulling out of russia and russia blocking access this is an information war in some ways and nina believes they try to control the information that the russian people get a about the conflict have we heard about twitter? >> facebook has made a big push
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to try to tamp down on misinformation and disinformation and as a result has been fact checking rt which is the russia state controlled media arm and some other media arms that are spreading propaganda and then facebook is limiting the spread of content from the platforms in response russia is saying we don't want to have you limit our spread of content so i think facebook is in a really key point right now and trajectory after being sort of witnessing so much misinformation on the platform in 2016 and trying to show it's made progress on the issues so this is about propaganda and who spreads information here. >> to the point on twitter, there were industry report that is it was blocked in russia sporadically should we expect it to ramp up
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there? >> yeah. the access up until this point access to twitter and facebook limited. this is different of a full-out ban. it would have a big impact. >> absolutely. thank you for covering this for us that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" starts right now ♪ thank you. welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler. kelly will join us a market sell y-off today three pillars of concern war, inflation and what the federal reserve may do with interest rates commodity chaos. the ukraine war could lead to a bigges


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