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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  March 30, 2022 6:00am-9:00am EDT

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good morning negotiators for ukraine and russia say they're making progress in cease-fire talks despite continued deadly strikes overnight. and new this morning, germany is warning of potential, potential natural gas rationing. not a big shock. we'll take you live to ukraine federal regulators authorizing a second covid booster shot for adults age 50 and older as the omicron stealth variant becomes the dominant strain in the u.s. plus an activist round with carl icahn, waging a campaign against kroger and bill acklin says he's giving up the short seller. march 30th, wednesday. one more day to go ♪
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good morning welcome to "squawk box" live at time square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is off today futures looking down, about 100 points off nasdaq off by 68 points. the s&p down by 16 points. for those of you getting a second mortgage, a 30-year -- does anyone get 30-year anymore. 2.4. >> inverted to the 5. >> what do you think. >> but not the 2 i don't know it kept happening yesterday. i had kelly on it happened with the 2-year, 10-year. i don't know what it means what i did see on twitter, i think it was gundlach who said, all right, where's the
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commensurate articles that say it doesn't matter this time. don't believe them i don't know what that means. >> if you're getting a new mortgage today, what would you do in. >> i didn't get a -- i don't -- i don't know i stick with the floating still. >> seven-year float? >> i think it's like fixed -- i have people. >> you have people >> i have people. >> interest-only >> no, no, no. i give my address and everything it's not one of those, no-doc. are those back >> i don't think they allow that. >> they're back. you need an address? >> i think you need an address. >> it makes it tougher. let's move on -- we're going to cover -- we've got it all covered between the two of us, we do. we've got it all covered. >> all of it. >> we've got the spectrum. >> we do, we do. >> if we talk buybacks, if we do anything, we're going to cover it we're going to cover it all. if anybody's out there,
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someone's going to be nodding and the other person is going to be pulling their hair out. >> there you go. new this morning, germany is warning of possible gas rationing amid itself dispute with russia. the kremlin has demanded its so-called unfriendly countries pay in rubles for gas, stoking fears of an energy crunch in europe now, that's one good reasonit could get hot, but one good reason we're moving into the spring at least. today's declaration from germany is an early warning measure and does not yet imply rationing for gas. now, the government is calling on consumers and companies to reduce consumption meantime russia and ukraine said they made progress in cease-fire talks yesterday with kharkiv looking for status reports say russia continued deadly strikes in the country. we'll take you live to ukraine
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at 6:30 a.m. eastern that was responsible for some of the better trading yesterday. >> right. >> i don't know what to think. i don't -- at this point, i don't know what the endgame looks like we're going to talk to some one. there's a lot of ratifications if we knew what vladimir putin wanted deep down, long term, i think we'd have a better idea of what to expect what does he want? does he want to reconstitute the soviet union then this doesn't end any time soon. >> legacy. >> does he want to make sure that, you know, the -- what's in between russia and the west is ukraine. so if it's nato, he would be worried. is that really all he wants is for russia's security? i don't know i don't know what -- no one knows. >> how old is henao? >> 69? maybe he's not that old. he's got a few years left.
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i think i have calculated. he wants to go to 2034 or something like i do, minimum i'll have to check. we have a covid update for you. adults 50 or older. >> 69. >> i thought you were excited about being over 50. >> no. he's 69. he's got a long way to go. >> for those 50 years old, you will be eligible for a second covid booster shot the fda and cdc are signing off on those boosters from pfizer and moderna. they're expected to authorize the shots for the broader population in the fall meantime the cdc now estimates theomicron, ba.2 variant being a t concentration. in new jersey it's estimated the
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stealth variant is expected to spread more easily than prior variants but carries a lower risk of severe disease that's the good news in new york, by the way, it shot up in the last two days. >> 3.5%. >> about 3.5%. it's moving. i don't know if you saw the other news, which i u thought was more interesting out of my alma mater, cornell, there is a new prophylactic effort being made with a nasal spray. >> is that like a hominin? there's different uses for it, right? being a preventive. >> being a preventive. you spray it up your nose. >> got it. >> it would prevent infection unto itself.
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>> i had the red pill. i think the immunity that you get from ba.1 -- is it called ba.1 >> ba.1 and ba.2. >> okay. it's a powerful -- i think a lot of people feel -- it was so many people that got that omicron you know, they had it for a couple of days or a week or whatever and then it was gone. >> i dodged it. >> you may have, you may not have. >> trust me. i'm such a delicate flower, i would know. >> you would know. if you had it in october -- stocks to watch. check out micron those shares are higher. chipmaker earnings and revenues beat the most recent estimates the current quarter guidelines
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are better than they were infecting -- expecting infection. lululemon, are you wearing >> i am not wearing lululemon. >> you've transitioned to other pants. >> i have. we can do a fashion show. >> very fickle you told me about these. >> ministry of supply. >> does it have a zipper on your back pocket? >> it does not. >> like that >> no. we can show them off they look like slacks. >> but l we see you're not wearing socks? >> i'm wearing socks. >> no way. what happened? >> it's winter, cold outside. >> it was cold last week. >> but they stretch. there's a lot of stretch in them, so they feel like you're wearing pajamas, but they look like you're wearing slacks >> right now do you feel like you're wearing pajamas
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>> no. it's just level of comfort. lululemon, not good news. this may be good news. the maker of athleisure apparel, athleisure apparel, that's a good one, athleisure, right? that's really good they reported earnings that beat estimates by 9 cents, though, revenue fell short lulu announced a 1 billion -- if this is going to trigger you, i'm not going to say it. i'm not even going say it. i'm avoiding things that could -- >> i don't know. what do you think? >> i was thinking of it yesterday. my feeling is if it does goose the stock, it's temporary. stocks move all over the place, over time, two, three, four years. ceos do it
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it's what o'leary said remember when o'leary said i'm willing to accept if they goose it for a point and sell into it. okay, fine it's over time i don't think it's material. >> by the way, i - >> three years is way too long. >> there's two issues. one is if it -- >> who put lululemon in here with the buyback who did it. >> if it really isn't materimaterial, i it's a waste. >> to buy back like i said, it's used to reduce the flow. >> and especially because companies are issuing so many shares these days. >> here's the thing. do you think that g.e. management got a great deal like selling -- it went from 60 to like 11. buybacks did nothing for g.e. >> completely. but most of the time, most of the time -- >> if it's over time, right?
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they announce a program, and it goes on -- they do it off and on for an entire year when is a guy supposed to sell then >> two years after, a year after. >> i don't think so. >> why not >> i don't think it makes that much of a difference it's like when stefan sold at 70 it's like, he's selling at 70. it went to 400 who cares. >> it's moronic to begin with. they shouldn't be pursuing buybacks. >> then it goes back to compensation then we're back to they're not aligning the company. >> what's the most productive use of the money, and the question is for lululemon, could they be investing -- should they be buying -- >> that's a decision -- that's a desoifgs the guy -- that's why he's making a lot of money. >> totally. >> that's why he's making the decision i don't want to merge because it's too expensive. >> you make these decisions. >> right i'm anothenot going to -- >> i get it. >> we've got the best pants in
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the world, so we don't need any r & d. >> he could divvy out the money. >> he could. >> i like the idea of making at least a dividend and buyback in terms of how we would innocent feis those things similar. >> that would work. >> right >> now what do we do with all the beans locked up with the billionaires that's what you've got to come up with. >> by the way, i don't like the idea of taxing unrealized gains. >> but you need to get at it. >> why do i need to get at it? >> you don't want to get to 30-year gains at -- >> no, no. i dodge need to get at unrealized gains >> so you'll wait for the event, whether it's death or sale. >> if we could deal with all the issues around estate taxes, absolutely why not do that way? i think it's completely fair and reasonable but you can't put it in five tax-free vehicles now so it never gets taxed later i would -- at some point i would
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have a cap on an annual amount that you would gift that would be tanx-free, and after that, if you -- >> you mean philanthropy. >> yes by the way, god bless them for giving it away say there's as annual $10 million or $20 million gift-free. if you're going to take shares and gift them, the first $10 million or $20 million are free. after that you have to sell them and give the rest of the money away. >> how about at this point, record revenue for taxes that's what you get, mr. government that's it. now -- >> you say it's great. >> no. we have it now. >> we have it now. >> that's what you get, no more. >> no more. >> that's what you work with do something with that nondiscretionary -- >> i like that. >> move it around. more education put it in kmield care. take it from something else.
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means test, social security. that's all you get stop. >> the headline that says biden gets record tax revenue because of this great economy. >> the reopened economy. >> the reopened economy. >> it tends to do that people come back to work and they pay taxes coming up -- see, you've got all sides to everything -- stock futures right now, we are in the red this morning after what has been a lot of green on the screen we're going to talk strategy after the break. later we're going to continue that debate about buybacks and president biden's new proposal on billionaires congressman ro khanna and anthony scaramucci will join us in the 8:00 hour you e tcngsqarwahi "uawk box" on cnbc i think you're going to like it here. umm, why is everyone...
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welcome back to "squawk box. alpha investor survey bring together market intelligence of the leading institutional investors and top strategists and cnbc contributors. we asked them for their outlook the second quarter and beyond. when asked where the s&p 500 would be by the end of the year, the majority said about, well, flat, from where we are now. yesterday's markets lightly shrugged off the session after 2-year and 10-year notes came close to inverting we'll talk about it more with greg branch as well as cameron
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dawson good morning to both of you. greg, i'm going to start with you. are you in the camp of those surveyed, flat by the end of the year is that what we're looking at? >> you know, i'm decidedly in that 6% that i think will be under 4,000. not only did we see the first inversion of the 2- and 10-year yesterday since 2019 as it did actually briefly invert, earlier in the week we saw the inversion of the 3-spend and 5-year. so wire we haven't been told when it will, they've almost also indicated one will occur sometime in the next 12 to 24 months at the end of the day if it's going to average $112 a barrel through the second quarter combined with a deliquefying
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fed, that's always been combined with persistent inflation, that's always been a perfect recipe for a slowing growth and factors into recession. >> cameron, are you in the investment camp? even though the yield curve is inverting, the fed curve is still actually easy. it's easy by all definitions if we think about fed policies today, it's at 25 basis points it's the lowest it's been since 1975 that's easy. just three weeks ago, they were still buying bonds in quantitative easing. what this tells us is the if fed is still a long way from being tight and contracting economic
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activity so we think we could set up for weaker economic growth if we go into a recession in the next 12 months, that remains to be seen. >> cameron, we've had this sort of mini rally. it's felt very volatile. which way is it headed what do you do >> i think we're really stuck in a sideways top we're not going to return to that strong market like we had coming out of prior corrections because the one thing that's missing coming out of this correction compared to the prior ones, we think 2011, 2016, 2018, 2020, all of those times, the fed pivoted to becoming accommodative. the fed's not becoming accommodative this time around they're just starting on their tightening cycle which as an investor it tells you you're unlikely to get powerful returns it doesn't mean imminent decline. we know season alt is good in
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april, but we do think we're expecting to see more volatility, more sideways. we could see another correction sometime in the next 12 months so we think investors need to be caution that the fed is not their friend this time. >> hey, greg if everything is as bad as you seem to be suggesting, what's the play if there is one >> the play is you look for sustainable earnings growth. we're in an environmental, but we're not going to get multiple expansion. in fact, what we'll probably see is a significant acceleration of earnings growth apd long with multiple contraction in an environmental where you're not going to get multiple expansion, you look for companies trading at a reasonable and multiple and historic range that can grow earnings, 20% plus those companies are out there, some with a multiple some while with a stretch multiple, well within their historic range when you look at some of the large cap ten. all of the companies show us they can put up 20% plus
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earnings growth in a challenging environment and even deliver margin expansion. >> big techs have been moved back recently. >> if you're going to give me market expansion and you're trading at less than 30 times, that will be a bargain as the years play out. >> we're going to leave the conversation there greg and cameron, thank you both. we've got a lot more coming up you can get insights into the most successful investors from the news letter. you can subscribe. use your phone right there you can pop your camera on there and get it in your inbox you can also go to letter sign up today. >> it's infinite. >> the q.r. code. >> yeah. it's infinite. >> i don't know if it's infinite i would assume there's millions if not billions of permutations. >> i would assume that, too, but
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it's probably not infinite that's a question for us to consider if i meditate today, i'm going to meditate on that, whether q.r. codes really are infinite aisle think about that. coming up about an activist investor roundup we'll talk carl icahn. i love -- i love who they are. bill ackman perhaps turning over a new leaf right now. as we head to break, he'ers a look at crypto "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit
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investor bill ackman said he's no longer going to take part in short selling campaigns. he writes, despite our limited participation in this investment strategy, it has generated enormous media attention for pershing square. he said, quote, fortunately for all of us and as importantly for our reputation as a supportive constructive owner, we've permanently retired from this line of work he battled against her ball life he invested with fannie mae and freddie mac back in 2007 before the financial crisis which then turned out to be a very
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successful bet ackman said he's ready to focus on long-term quieter ones like netflix, universal, chipotle, rbi, lowe's -- you like all these. >> lowe's is a -- i don't know i guess it's sem mantics if you wage a campaign against the s&p and you're short that, does that count? >> yeah. i mean, you can't -- >> you're not going to do that anymore? that's not what they're talking about. they're talking about individual names. he was kind of an activist on the short selling side, but he was -- i don't know. i don't want to get into this. i do want to get sh into this. let's talk about this and then we'll get into it at the end carl icahn is expanding his annal welfare campaign to
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kroger he previously targeted mcdonald's 's eh's submitted a plan to nominate two candidates to kroger's board after first contacting the company on friday kroger said that icahn voiced his concerns in animal welfare in use of gestation crates in port production. also i-kcahn talk about it kroger said it would review icahn's nominations. they would reduce the crates he said he only owns 100 shares. he wanted to tackle glaring injustices at kroger you know, pregnant pigs, they can be hassled and bullied by other pigs, so they put them alone in these gestation crates. that's no bargain either
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they're very small and not a lot of room. no if you were there, i would think you would say it has to stop we're not there, so we take everything for granted i called icahn a genius, but he's a perma bear. his wife liked they called him a genius but he -- then he said, i served on hundreds of boards. if you saw the kind of people that are running companies, you'd be a perma bear too. he said it's not true. i was bullish once it was the worst day of my life. >> yes he's always been a perma bear. proudly. genius -- the guy's got a -- >> he's a national treasure with the stuff he says too. >> that is true. >> you've got to come on, set your alarm. >> he has to wake up early. >> he said the only way i'd be on is if i was still up. if he's still up at 6:00 some night, maybe he'll call in.
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coming up -- >> who knows what goes on all night. >> i don't know if you remember. i did a show out in california, and a number of the guests came on because they were still up. they were still up. >> in my younger days that might have happened. we're going to take you live to ukraine right after this break for the latest on the cease-fire talks that's next. as we go to break, we'll take a look at the s&p 500 winners. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable, and secure our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it...
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(speaking japanese) like i was saying, it's ftx. it's a safe and easy way to get into crypto. ehhh, i don't think so. and i'm never wrong about this stuff. never.
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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" live from the market at times square a lot of green this week it's been volatile right now you've got the dow off by 93 points time now for an update on the
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war in ukraine we want to go to nbc's gabe gutierrez. he joins us live in ukraine this morning. gabe. >> reporter: hey, there. good morning so we have been seeing a glimmer of hope after those peace talks in turkey yesterday, but any concessions by the russians have been met with widespread skepticism not just here in ukraine but around the world in the last half hour we heard from the govern in northeast kyiv and he said shelling continued overnight, again, fueling the skepticism that the russians are really changing tactics. the uk ministry of defense say some russian forces appear to have gone back to russia or belarus for resupplying, but fighting is intensifying in other parts of the country, including to the east and northeast, cities like kharkiv and, of course, the besieged city of mariupol where ukrainian president zelenskyy said more
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than 90% of the billings have been damaged or destroyed. and just this morning, the u.n. said more than 4 million refugees now have now left this country. back to you. >> hey, gabe, real quick i don't know i doubt -- i -- you probably don't have tomb to be reading the new york times this morning, but breath stevens has a column where he effectively -- joe, this goes to your point what his endgame is he writes is up poet putin never intended to conquer ukraine. his real targets were the energy targets in the east. you combine that with their previous territorial seizures of crimea and the eastern provinces. the shape of putin's ambitions become clear he's less interested in reunited russia's world but in getting dominance over energy.
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any talk over there. >> reporter: it could be we're having discussions following the peace talks that in the next couple of weeks if the ukrainians put that back in the discussion in the donbas region, this was a few days ago, that president zelenskyy and others thought was off the table, but even the fact we're having this discussion could be significant, and everyone thought that, well, because we saw so many of the russian forces in and around kyiv in the early parts of this war, that perhaps taking down kyiv could have been putin's intent hard to say right now. but we could see a situation where the russians potentially back off and perhaps focus on that eastern region t donbas region, which, of course, has been controlled by russian separatists already for several years. i think we should also pull back here even though these are glimmers of hope, this would be some time before we see an end to the war because of the discussion of a national referendum that would need to happen
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that would need to take a lot of time at this point t ukrainians aren't willing to have that with any russian troops still in this country controlling some of the cities yes, certainly it is a discussion that's being had here is putin -- was his endgame all along to focus on these, you know, targeted areas in the east perhaps. we just don't know at this point. it's hard to tell what putin's next move is. >> gabe, thank you for your reporting, and please, please stay safe. >> thank you >> how do you have a referendum? what putin started at one point is thinking it was going to be a week or two, and what he knows now, his thinking may have changed about what he was going to -- i mean, supposedly the morale is so low with his troops, he's running out of time nobody knows nobody knows, i don't think. >> nobody knows. >> let's say he does pulls back
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now and just gets the energy materials. how long before europe forgets or because of its own self-interests, forgets all of these own atrocities and starts to deal again because they need the energy he could slime his way back into the global community if he stopped here, which he shouldn't be able to with biden on this. for more on russia's war on ukraine, let's bring in juliet kai yes, ma'am she was homeland security saert under president obama. she's with the harvard school and the author of "the devl never sleeps," even though we're not talking about anyone in particular even though we were just talking about putin. i don't want to get poisoned we're all trying to figure out what the guy's thinking, which is probably a fool's errand. do you have your own opinion about what he was thinking when
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he started, what he's thinking now, what it's going to take >> i think his thinking has probably changed because his capacity to do what he wanted to do at the beginning has clearly bumped up against reality. part of planning for something like a war or a crisis or a disaster is you get your logistics right. it's as simple as. when the heft is written about the ukrainian war and these five weeks, it's going to come down to mres, meals, ready-to-eat can he feed his soldiers the answer is no or things like a tourniquet kit. can his joerlds survive? i'm not pro-russia army. i'm just saying looking now at it, what he wanted to do had to change because hedy not prepare his army to do what it needed to do to get into the capital so it's a remarkable thing where logistics bump up against whatever big thinking he had at
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some stage. >> so that's something we need to consider that all along maybe they conjectured that he wanted to reconstitute the mother russia maybe that was true to start maybe it's no longer true. >> right. >> do you think if he were to say give me these two regions, oil-reach eastern regions, do you think that's enough face-saving for him to stop for three to five years? would he do that would he agree to that >> i think he counsel. the question is not just him, but, of course, the ukrainians and europeans and the u.s., which is what would be a legitimate exit strategy that ends -- not just ends the war and the attack against civilians but is able to bring back two or three refugees, which is going to be the next crisis if they can't return home. i tend to think a little more
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tactically and not long-term can you get a short-term solution that lets you save face and longer term, a referendum or whatever ukrainians are proposing now, that at least some stability into the future i think, you know, give credit where credit is due. if ukrainians had not pushed back to the extent that they had, let's say zelenskyy left the country and wasn't able to rally them, this would be a different narrative because putin would have multiple options. so it's just a -- looking at it from afar, the pure sort of supply chain logistics aspects of it are absolutely remarkable and how they define what this war was about. >> juliette, if it were to have -- let's be optimistic -- some type of resolution near term, can we go back to globalization? i just know how things work. eventually it's in europe's best
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interest to have the energy flowing. they would find a way to appease or forget what he did. could he ever be welcomed back into the global order? and that would certainly free up china to some extent because they don't know what to do at this point if they back him too much, they're not going to be part of the world order. >> right and i agree with that. i don't think that's necessarily bad. i mean what you want to do and the way i think about sort of getting out of a crisis, you want to sort of make sure that you don't have a sort of single point of failure, right? you want to give multiple options to what the next stage is going to look like. so you take the pressure off of china. you let the europeans begin to flirt again with russia. i don't know what that exactly looks like i think over time these markets will open. that's not horrible. it just means we have to reduce the risk in the future i do think there's something --
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there's like a long-term benefit to this, which is beginning to think about alternatives to energy europe, beginning to talk about nuclear energy again the germans abandoned it everyone was nervous about it. all of these industries are risky. part of the book focus is how do we reduce the rink to make things safer not safe, but safer. and i'm hoping we'll begin that conversation for europe, let alone for the united states in the future. >> have we thwarted a major cyber attack, or has he held back what do you think -- if he has held back, why >> there's a couple of things. one is never ujds underestimate the fences that were put up. there were three or four month where they were budgeting. there was a communication strategy that made a lot of
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sense. it basically said to putin, there's a difference between a disruptive cyber attack, which we kind of experience all the time, and a disruptive cyber attack on it nato wouldn't say where it was, but nato made it clear they would view it as invoking what we call article 5, which would require some response. and then there's always the question, as we're seeing with the army, that we thought his capabilities were greater than they were simply because we never put up a defense if you look at the last four or five years, we thought, he can do this, do that we didn't focus our efforts on trying to stop him now that they're more focused on it, it could mean that we overestimated his capacity the same way military analysts may have been over, let's say, enthusiastic about russia's
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military capacity. >> so versus last week or two weeks ago, you used to have to worry a lot. you still do we all do. at the department of homeland security i can't imagine the worries on a daily basis. do you feel any better today are we in a better position in terms of the end of the world not being minutes or seconds away at this point, do you think? do you feel better >> i do. i do i mean i know this is disconcerting and that people -- you know, obviously in a world where russia doesn't invade ukraine and does invade ukraine, obviously i'm going to prefer where they don't but part of what it is to live in society where motives are complicated, in which things, networks and people are interconnected is that there will -- we will always experience crises and disasters. the question is not whether we
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can stop them all. it's whether we can minimize the consequences of the harm so i talk about in the book, we just need to learn to failsafer. i don't talk about safe -- safe is not a world i know. but we can learn to fail safer in this context, in the world context, i think that's actually true i think both the buildup in ters of getting europe aligned with the united states, i think the ukrainians' response to russia, and, of course, the fact that putin really doesn't have great options looking ahead, those are all ways in which we learn to accept harm and try to make the world safer. prof professor kay ye' m, thanks. >> thank you. coming up, a potential buying opportunity we're going to talk about three stocks that could be ripe for the picking. we'll talk about that right after the break. and then later, jeremy
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welcome back to "squawk box. in the roughly two years since the market pandemic low of march 23, 2020 the market has more than doubled but the communication sector has lagged.
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>> andrew, it's also the worst performing sector in the s&p over the last year there are stocks in that sector that offer insight a little more into the different covid lock down restrictions you mention, the reopening story lines if you will are within the sector overall, but you can see since the pandemic lows we tracked pretty closely to the s&p 500 for this sector and then have kind of really started to diverge in the last couple of months here overall. if you take a look at netflix, though, which was an early beneficiary of that stay home trend it gained, but it's given up most of those gains in the months since especially since disappointing subscriber numbers triggered a sell-off earlier in the year part of that story is increased competition from rivals like disney it's an under-performance of the
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sector but still tracking much more closely than netflix is the theme park reopening, gaining strength in streaming, all part of that disney narrative, and we'll add in shares of live nation which are up more than 200% since the late march 2020 area there. the company has already said this year its ticket sales and concert demand metrics are exceeding the same period in 2019, so just another sign of pent-up demand for more in person entertainment but netflix, disney, live nation some of those big stocks that have told a big story, andrew, about this particular sector in particular since the pandemic lows send things back over to you guys >> fascinating thank you, sir we're going to see y at outhe top of the hour with some more movers of the morning. squawk coming right back after this
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welcome back to "squawk box. this morning internet stocks
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havestaged a come back over th past two weeks signaling investors may be ready to put money back into growth names or are they amazon and google looking to recoup losses for the year joining us with his favorite names in the internet sector right about now. mark, we've seen them come off and now things have moved back, feels very volatile. we've seen this happen in amiest a reerating of multiples and interest rates seem to be and seem to be headed. >> i think that setup is right if if the invasion continues to escalate and get broader then the stocks won't work.
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that said these are the highest value names in terms of business sheet and model. and particularly amazon has got a nice setup balance through the year i think facebook or meta platforms have already warneduts about that you put that together for a name like this which has underperformed for quite some time i think that means it's going to be a dramatic outperformer between now and the end of the year. >> where do you put a meta in this grouping at this point? >> i actually think that meta is one of the three highest quality names along with amazon and google they're doing 30% operating margins and we think they'll exit the year with 20% plus revenue growth
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there are very company specific issues there are some very significant risks so it's a little more speculative than amazon and google i like facebookas a stock but you have to have a 12-month duration in order to buy it. >> it's not on our list but what do you think of microsoft right now? >> it falls under highest quality tech names i think one of the names we also like is booking and expedia would be in that list and uber but booking is a name i particularly like because i think it's a high quality well tested business model, high teens pe multiple for what i think is market growth and a clear recovery play assuming travel continues to recover as
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it was looking it was going to do prior to the russian invasion of ukraine if that continues to be the casebooking is a great recovery plan and high quality name >> do you have a surprise name for us meaning something so beaten down that everyone has completelydisregarded you thin maybe has got some risk to it, but if it works it works big >> well, i think of the megacap names in consumer tech i think the most with the up size surprise is facebook or meta platforms. there are some names like spotify that have really been beaten down hard that i think have interesting gross margin stories in the back half of this year >> mark, it's always good to see you. i'll talk to you soon. thanks >> it is literally just past
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7:00 you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and becky is off today. we've got a big line-up. >> big i mean we've got us. >> that's right. and we have those gentlemen coming up. we're going to talk to the founder of kc trade on the recent meme stock run. those next two gentlemen, i don't think it'll be much of a debate really. we hardly knew ye, anthony, but they're going to talk about biden's billionaire tax proposal and then we're going to get professor jeremy siegel's take on the markets he's decidedly less bullish. we'll see what that means long-term for equities >> talking about equities, take a look at where the dow sits
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right about now. if we did it right now we'd be off about 70 points. we were off about 100 points when the show began at 6:00. s&p 500 looking to open down about 10 points. i want to go back to dom chu who's been looking at some of this morning's premarket movers. what's going on? we don't have his microphone i can do this. not as well as dom could do this but we could go through some of the big names. >> technical difficulties. we should fix that, easily hey, dom, you ready yet? >> i'm here. can you hear me now? >> it's like a verizon commercial >> or a sprint commercial. or a t-mobile commercial these days, right? it was the actor right that went from verizon to sprint, and i guess sprint -- >> we're talking about it.
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we should get a marketing and advertising guy on i bet after that happened people are now doing noncompetes on those actors and the question is -- >> did you notice one of the lawyers is a big like phone salesman >> i guess the most comparable person right now is lilly from at&t so they had to bring somebody else in to pretend their lilly at at&t. we digress we'll take you through some of the movers here. the overall market narrative right now for the futures is slightly negative, but check out what's happening with micron semiconducturs obviously a very big part of the market micron comes out with earnings after yesterday's closing bell
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that were both revenues and profits better than expect it was also the outlook for micron that wowed investors as well so the forecast looks good micron is helped along by other things, but strong data center demand was really big for some of these big computer memory chip makers. also lululemon because lulucomes out athleisure we know how much joe likes the pants, right, but notjust the pants. everything else seems to be doing well the sales did fall somewhat shy of analyst forecasters, but again it was the forecast for full year revenues and full year profits that again wowed investors. they also announced a $1 billion stock buy back program and all those things helping lulushares up 8% right now but remember this stock also fell roughly 40% from recent highs to lows. by the way, they're going to put
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selective price increases on some of their product to outweigh some of the costs they've seen gamestop and amc on a year to year basis, remember these stocks more than doubled in just a couple weeks here. by the way, if you're wondering what they're doing right now they're both probably taking a breather gamestop and amc in the premarket trade right now. gamestop is down just fractionally, amc down about 1% as well. so a check on those meme stocks, big run, guys. andrew, joe, i'll send things over to you. >> at the domino thank you, sir >> stop messing with your mike, dom. it was working fine and i don't know what you did. i don't think he did anything. probably wasn't his fault. amazing that it works so much. we should be -- >> it's a miracle.
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>> yeah, the health of the nation's labor market will be in focus for the rest of the week the employment report adp just out in over an hour. we'll get jobless claims tomorrow and friday the march employment report. steve liesman joins us now with some high frequency data on how inflation is impacting the job market you going to tell us what you think about adp, too, steve? >> yeah, i'll give you a number anyway as to what people are forecasting, but that's all i can tell you right now because, joe, it's a tricky call on this jobs report. the high frequency shows little growth and even a slight decline fum the strong pace of february but there's also not been much impact yet from high inflation and sectors like leisure and hospitality, they keep bouncing back from the slow down we had earlier this year from covid dave from the hr software company ukg said work force
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activity indicated a slight slow down in job growth and negative effects from high oil prices and the ba.2 covid variant have not yet impacted hourly shift work 450 on adp, and jobless claims are low. they're expected to be 195 tomorrow and bls payroll expected to coming in at 490,000. they saw slight weakness but based on a cooling off of really strong numbers we had in february and they continue to chronicle a recovery from omicron. they wrote, quote, as omcrone faded and people sought recreation and amusement from outside the home so fed officials they've expressed concern about a possible wage-price spiral. that's where high wages create high prices, which create high wage demand. so as much as everybody wants more job growth, the fed is
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hoping for some cooling off of the job market to take pressure off wage gains and inflation they might get a little of that this month, joe. >> all right, steve liesman, thanks and they have probably have a pretty good idea, i was saying march 31st and the next day they've got to have it ready they have a pretty good idea, don't they, steve? and it could be off by hundreds of thousands as we know. they could revise it >> you mean the fed already knows or the bls already knows >> i'm saying to get it that quickly because usually it's not the very next day. sometimes they'll actually put it off a week, but they aren't this week. and you know what day it is. >> you also know it's been really -- >> you know what day it is >> april 1st, right, exactly >> but, joe, no fooling the jobs numbers have been really lousy in terms of on the first print
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remember we did 200,000 plus 600,000. that's why we're following this home base and ukg data, and by the way i didn't tell you this, but the ukg data has strengthened since the survey period so they're showing some acceleration i'm trying to find some impact of high oil prices, high inflation, fed rate hikes in the jobs data. i don't think i'm seeing it yet. >> not yet, okay probably a lag all right, steve liesman, thanks coming up a check on the energy sector after seeing big losses yesterday. we're going to talk prices and get a preview of torw's omroopec meeting. is that tomorrow yikes. that's next.
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welcome back to "squawk box. germany now declaring an early warning it could be soon facing a natural gas emergency as europe's largest economy preparing for the risk of a full supply disruption from russia i should say germany economic minister now calling for consumers and companies to reduce consumption. joining us right now to discuss
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that headline, good morning to you. this news from germany what does it really mean, and what do you think it really means to the price. >> i mean right now there's concern the russians as you know have been asked to pay in rubles for gas, and you've had a number of european countries come out and say that would be violating their contract there is news now of a possible gas disruption in europe the big news in the gas market there's simply not additional spare capacity out there to bring new supplies into europe there isn't immediate gas on hand to really make up for that. >> and therefore what -- i mean we're looking right now, by the way nat gat gas and at $5.33 what does it mean longer term -- short-term if this is the case
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>> the big concern is are we looking at industrial curtailments in europe i was just in qatar, and they were really clear like we're essentially maxed out in the near-term. and the u.s. is talking about providing additional 50 bcms into europe but again that's a drop in the bucket in terms of making up for a major russian supply disruption. so there is real concern about a shortage of gas going into europe and what that would mean for europe's economic outlook. >> i have a totally different question i don't know if you saw earlier in the show we were talking about this brett stevens column this morning we were talking what putin's end game is. and brett posits effectively this is actually -- this whole conflict is actually preplanned and actually all about energy. you believe that >> i mean, look, i think that putin has a broader plan than energy i think it's about reconstituting his sphere of
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influence. he looks like he's basically trying to rebrand some of his losses and concessions i think market participants have to think about these sanctions in place in russia being long-term, that we're going to potentially see more disruptions of russian energy. president biden's especially energy envoy in dubai this week already said we lost 2 million barrels of russian neenergy exports. >> we were also talking earlier on the program about is there a way for putin to come effectively back onto the scene in europe if somehow this all stopped tomorrow, which i don't think it is. >> i mean, look, if vladimir putin removes his troops tomorrow, i don't see any willingness on the part of western powers to roll back
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sanctions after he's caused a massive refugee crisis 4 million people are now displaced from ukraine you have potentially thousands dead in mariupol i just don't see this country getting out from under sanctions anytime soon unless there's a change at the top in russia. >> so if that's right we're looking at wti crude on the screen right now at $106 basically, $107. what does that look like to you come christmas >> i mean, andrew, what i think we have to think about is do western powers intensify the sanctions pressure right now russian crude is essentially unpopular because of a fire strike with banks, shipping companies and energy companies saying we won't touch it but major consumers of russian crude and gas are still taking the product. the big question is going to be does putin do something in terms of escalation that makes russian energy unavailable because of potentially secondary sanctions
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from the united states that would force countries like india to cut their airports? right now continentt europe is really reluctant to turn off the russian taps if putin escalates and were to use chemical weapons i think we're going to see further actions. >> we've now walk through the various permutations of what could happen walk through what you think happens therefore to the price of wti >> i mean, look, i think we're going to have to prepare for higher prices. the question is will we retest the highs we've seen in the past co couple weeks i think that will depend how putin wages the war. one thing we're not likely to see is additional volumes coming out of opec. they're having a meeting tomorrow there are no indications opec is willing to go beyond the 400,000 monthly increase they've already agreed to.
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and we also have a question about how much more oil is really out there from opec producers? the estimates are potentially they have 2 to 2.5 million barrels they could easily bring onto the market. if russia is down by 2 million already there's a question about where the available barrel is going to come to fill this hole. >> we're going to leave it there. thank you for your perspective and analysis on all of it. >> coming up this morning's corporate headlines and later tesla seeking a stock ship split for the second time in two years. could that move trigger another rally in the stock before we head to break let's get a check on the markets see we're down downut n bot out "squawk box" will be right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning adp going to be releasing its latest report on private sector reporting this morning the report showed about 450,000 new private sector jobs for the month. that pairs back to and the house
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passed a bipartisan bill, the bill raising 401k and contributions for older workers as well as raising the age for mandatory withdrawal and the proposal going to the senate vow a, quite, quieter approach he told investors he plans to work primarily behind the scenes with companies seeking change. we've got a lot more coming up on squawk this morning a closer look at the mortgage market amid higher interest rates. we'll talk that and so much more a couple big debates coming up as well when we come right back on squawk. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what popular candy turns 100 this year? e answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues
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now the answer to today's aflac triviaquestion what popular candy turns 100 this year? the answer, the haribo gummy
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bear the candy was first invented in bonn, germany, in 1922 okay mortgage rates over the past several weeks and diana oleck joins us now i can't wait for the summer and spring when you're outside again. you're not kwquite there yet bu we're looking forward to it. >> but all the cold destroyed the cherry blossoms, but let's talk refinancing refi demand fell 15% in one week and was down 60% from a year ago according to the mortgage bankers association. now, that is not good news for all lenders but especially the nonbank lenders who were deep in the refinance business you see names like rocket, loan depot and uwm all in the red year to date
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all because the average rate on the 30-year fixed jump to 4.8% last week from 4.5% the week before and already slightly higher this week mortgage applications to buy a home increased 1% for the week but were 10% lower than the same week one year ago. home buyers today continue to face sky high prices and record low supply in addition to rising mortgage rates affordability is weakening dramatically, but some real estate agents say the competition is not letting up. it seems like whoever is out there is fighting to get what's available, but cash now is king. some agents telling me they've never seen so much cash in a spring housing market. back to you guys >> hard to believe with where we were, diana, the refiswz was still continuing it seems you need more than a point drop to do it. can't just be like the fed where we build it back up to where we've got some room to cut and there had be another boom.
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they were too low to have these refi booms >> it was based on the fact we sat at record low mortgage rates for a year basically i remember saying there were 13 record lows set i believe in 2020 and so when you have that you had all these people, millions of people refinancing, and the refinanceable population now is so low we went from about 10 million who could benefit from a refi to like 2 million if you don't benefit, you don't do it. >> you better pick a different business so people that have houses that they're selling now, do they price them low and then let the bidding begin? how much is that done? >> no, that's the issue. sellers right now know -- they know it's such a tight market. they know there's so much competition out there. still pricing high and getting multiple offers with 50, 100, even 200,000 over asking >> that's amazing.
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okay, all right. a lot more to come this morning. tesla shares up big time after news of that potential stock split. so what could that mean for investors going forward? plus president biden's proposed billionaire's tax causing a stir on both sides of the aisle we're ingog to talk for their takes on all of it stay tuned you're watching squawk on cnbc it takes a village to support society and businesses have a responsibility to support that village. ♪ ♪
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i'm happy to celebrate success, but let's remember elon musk didn't make it on his own he got huge investments from the government, from taxpayers from those public schoolteachers and those minimum wage workers who have been paying their taxes all along. to get that business up and running and help see it through rough times. >> and that was massachusetts senator elizabeth warren on "squawk box" yesterday it was a big debate in washington and a key topic for investors. does tesla enjoy too many government subsidies joining us now is gene munster and the research ceo and
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founder. guys, gene, you should have seen twitter explode when i tweeted that out and a lot of people said the loans were paid back in full, and the idea it's kind of funny when someone says, yeah, well, you wouldn't be a successful company if you didn't have all those customers most companies do squeed because people use their services. i don't know if that's a real cogent point to make on why it wasn't really elon musk, it was his customers that put him on the map. did gm pay back everything at this point >> don't know. maybe she's getting to some of those ev tax credits and tesla had a benefit from that, there's no question about that those have been moderated now, and i would say that a lot of
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companies get benefits for tax treatment around where policy is moving where they want to move demand obviously around renewables and so i don't feel like there was an outsized opportunity. it is true tesla has because they sell more electric cars they have more of these ev tax credits, and they'll continue to do that. that's more in my opinion really about a surprising lack of innovation with traditional auto and their ability to really get those customers you're talking about. so when i put it together i can see why a policymaker would bring this up, but i think it largely miss said the point. the point is that consumers want their products even with tax credits if they have subpar products consumers won't buy them and the opposite has happened tesla has grown deliveries on average at four times the growth rate of traditional auto over the last eight quarters and i think that speaks to something that's going on beyond tax
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benefits >> gordon, even though you've questioned valuation on the stock and you've questioned a lot of things about tesla but you're glad he did it in this country, right, and you appreciate the $11 billion he paid into the federal government on taxes and that's a good thing for everybody, isn't it? >> he did contribute it by over $5 billion to a charity which some allege is his own charity to scircumvent taxes data point number one was the head of fsd and ai took a, quote, four-month sabbatical it's very interesting he's taking a four month sabbatical now. what's important is the last major exec that quote-unquote took a sabbatical and took a leave of absence doug phil the head of? gen earring and six weeks later he left the company. and there's other executives,
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all these guys were said to take leaves of absences they weren't leaving and then they left. over 50% of their production last year and over 100% of their profit and the third thing that happened is key projectors of their deliveries in q1 are projecting their deliveries are going to significantly miss consensus estimates. the first two of those things one could argue should have gotten ak. but instead of tesla intention six months down the line of their annual meeting to get a vote for a stock split and the stock goes up. look, i think there's been a junk stock rally you've seen amc go up 170%, gm go up 130% and i think it's, you know, basically you're look at unsophisticated retail investors, and you're doing things like announcing stock
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picks or buying gold mines that have been bankrupted twice but don't have really gold to mine to push stocks up it's really sad what's going on. with respect to the task credits i'll say this, every single year outside of last year excluding credit sales tesla lost money. without the tex credit benefit tesla lost money every single year so i think that's something to consider. >> so, gene, do you consider -- i would never, just me -- i don't consider tesla like a meme stock like ame and gm. >> the circles overlap on the edges, and i would describe it as there is a kind of a religious aspect to the tesla
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conversation >> it's based on something, though seems like there's a little more to go on i've seen a lot of teslas on the road >> it's not a -- i wouldn't put it in the meme stock i see gordon's point about the emotion around it. i would say this the goal here is not to prescribe to one religion or the other. the believers or the nonbelievers it's to identify what's going on with the fundamentals. and gordon points out there could be some talent attrition, some important talent that probably he's saying he's going to stay. he's not going to be around in five years i feel good about that but i think what's most important related to meme stocks and what the difference here to the fundamentals and i would come back our job is to identify how many vehicles are they going to sell over the next two to five years, what's the profitability around those vehicles it's as simple as that and i would say on the identifying vehicle perspective if we're going to take the approach of trying to cut through the noise, gordon is
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great at sharing with me different insights he has. this is inspired by rob mauer who is pretty active and identified every detailaround tesla. rob pointed out gm has a new factory in michigan. it's just opening up they also have the berlin factory. both of those have videos that have been released one of them was produced by gm the other was produced by tesla. i would look at those video. and i think it draws a stark distinction. now, gm is not the whole auto industry, but how traditional auto is approaching manufacturing versus how tesla is and i think that really anchors or is evidence to me about this gap we have in terms of production and ultimately what i think is going to drive the stock, which is how many vehicles are they going to produce and sell and one last point and i'll turn
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it back to gordon is that they can't keep up with the demand. shanghai being shutdown, that's going to have potentially a negative impact on what the numbers are. that's very true in the near term but i think when you see delivery times for model three this summer, model "y," the earliest in the u.s. is october 22 to january 23 to give a range. they have reportedly a million preorders for cyber truck. something big is going on and we're just at the beginning of it >> if you were actually short the stock i was thinking it looked like you were doing okay there earlier this month as a guy that comes onto talk about tesla wouldn't that be as good a time to throw in the towel to say i'm a believer now? do you think we'll go back down
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to where it was and back below that and you think it'll be below 500 presplit again >> yeah, i think tesla is going significantly lower. and we're at an s&p level right now above where we were at pre-war and you have earnings coming out that i think are going to be bad. but let's look at the numbers. let's look at the 10k where tesla said their u.s. operations, their shang hioperations were over 100% of their profit look at the shanghai opoperations specifically. i think tesla is one of the least manufacturers of carsch and what's important, gene, is how many cars they're going to produce. to get to a valuation that justifies a company valued more than the entire auto industry combined they need to be adding roughly 100,000 cars a quarter
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of incremental sales i think you've got to look at the reality and not these kind of anecdoteal details. one last thing i'll note again i think it's very important to keep in mind their market share is falling and again when these q1 numbers are going to come out what's going to happen. and the fact they get paid an event six months out, i think that speaks volumes to what they're looking at it looks like they're more focused on the stock versus the product. as this bear market rally fizzles out, which we think is happening, i think the numbers coming out of tesla are going to disappoint and i think the stock has significant down sides here. to the meme perspective i think it is a meme stock because you have them doing things putting out events on things that haven't happened so i think we need to focus on the fundamentals, and when you do that it doesn't look good
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>> come back to our goal here to identify how many vehicles separate from the market share piece. their market share is going down but how many vehicles. and it's a $2,500 stock. it's going to be up and down, and ultimately i think that is -- i would just offer one other piece, and this is a religious piece. and i do -- my job is to cut through the noise and identify a number of units and profit nlt, but there is one piece that i am guilty of having religion on, and that is it belief that using traditional auto as a bench mark how to value tesla is misleading not misleading in the sense of trying to steer people in the wrong direction. i think it's just the wrong lens and this is just computer on wheels, and it's about revenue, profitability, about a massive,
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massive town it's eventually what if apple if they get in the business and not saying they're going to get there, but those are the companies. it's going to be the tech companies that are going to really redefine this and i think that changes the whole dynamic around valuation >> thanks for both sides of this argument i don't know if it's ever settled. coming up the president's budget proposal could have companies thinking twice about remaining a public company robert frank is going to have the details next and then wild swings in gamestop and amc this week. we're going to break down the moves and find out if the retail investor is behind them. reminder you can always watch us live on the go right here on the cnbc app we're back after this.
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♪do you know what the future holds?♪ president biden's proposal to tax billionaires could have more companies and their founders thinking about going private. robert frank joins us with another angle due to the president's tax plans. hey, robert. >> good morning, joe well, there are two categories of taxpayers in the billionaire
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tax. you've got the liquid wealthy or those whose wealthy is mainly held in tradeable assets so those like stocks. those with at least 80% of their wealth in a nontradeable asset like a private business or property now the liquid wealthy they'd have to pay annual tax up to 20% on unrealized gains. the value of their stock is marked to market by the end of each year. so even if they don't sell a stock they'd have to pay a tax every year, but owners of private companies can defer the tax until the business is sold so that's a huge difference. the white house saying this is all aimed at helping family companies manage the tax without being forced to sell and there is an interest charge that private owners have to pay when they do eventually sell for deferring that tax but tax advisers say over time this amounts to a substantial tax break for private company owners and could lead more companies to go private or at least fewer private companies to
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go public. that's not to mention the problems you're going to have with disputes between private company owners and the irs about valuations we already see that a lot with the estate tax, and only about 2,000 people pay the estate tax every year you're talking here about probably more than 20,000 people a year whether it's tradeable or untradeable, liquid assets that would be subject to this tax >> is there enough wiggle room, robert, in the way this is being done to get around the we only tax income, we don't tax things that aren''re almost calling it deferral on an eventual event. i saw all the president's men -- i saw jerry bernstein on
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yesterday and he said we looked at it and it will pass muster the courts do you buy that? >> well, it's really going to come down to whether you can treat an unrealized gain as income and the constitution is clear. that's what the court is going to have to decide. i mean, the white house is calling this income -- we have always called it wealth. when you have a paper gain that you cannot spend, you can't do anything with it until you sell is that really income? >> it's a prepayment of when you're going to sell it. is that enough wiggle room i guess it depends on the court who's deciding, too. >> no, you're right. and that was clever to say, look, this is going to be a credit toward your eventual tax. and then, of course, if your stock goes down one year that credit is lower by that amount so, yeah, it's also a way by
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spreading those payments out, it sort of smooths the payment stream for those big up and down volatile years especially with those big tech founders. >> i don't know. i'm still conflicted of this because i hate the idea of -- >> you said earlier today you said you were content with how much revenue was coming in we just need to spend it more effectively and move it around a bit. >> that's true, too. >> well, make up your mind >> we're getting huge revenue right now. we're getting record revenue at the state and federal level. >> is that what you were trying to catch me on >> keep it where it isch. >> okay, but can we -- shift the mix of where the revenue is coming from. >> definitely. we can take everything away from military spending now. we don't need that >> i'm not making that argument. >> oh, i know. but others have. nondiscretionary, robert
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we've got a means test >>robert, you've got to come i here and we've got to do like an hour on this together. >> tax-debt next week. >> right, it's coming up coming up, meme stocks swinging wildly in yesterday's session. if the retail investor are back we're going to see whether that's true. as we head to break check out the shares of lululemon reporting earnings that beat estimates by 9 cents although revenue fell short looking for the best investments and themes cnbc's terms are happening today and plus actionable insights from top investors and much more. tod name.
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meme stocks are making a come back this week. stocks like gamestop, amc, they're all up to the highest they've been now in months, but is this growth really sustainable? joining us right now is tasty trades founder and co-ceo. tom, what is going on here can you explain this >> i wish i could.
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i don't know except it's a good thing, andrew, when we get a little bit of akds iction in me stocks it brings everybody back into the market >> but what do you ascribe this move to? >> i think it's a combination of a lot of risk off in the commodity markets and a lot of excitement about, you know, just the recent rally we've had we've had a huge rally over the last two weeks, and there's been a huge decline in implied volatility there's been a big -- they've crushed kind of a lot of money went into things like wheat, corn, soybeans, crude oil, a lot of selling in the bond market. think of it more like a sector rotation into things people like to trade they like to get -- there's a lot of noise and traders love noise. >> tell me about amch. we're looking at the screen now. that stock is up 2984.
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they're going to be in all sorts of other investment. i don't know what it is. >> i mean, you and everybody else i mean, i look at the stock at i think it traded 200 million shares yesterday i look at the stock at $29 million. i think of it just in terms of i'm an opportunist, so i think of it in terms of, okay, it tratsds a lot, the options markets are tight, huge volume and it expected move over the course of the next 15 days is $10 on a $30 stock that is the answer the answer you can't think of amc fundamentally. you can't of, hey, what are these guys going to do hey, it's a tradeable stock, in play and it's a certain level of engagement meme stock mania for whatever it
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is, whatever that means, it's just good for business it's good for your business, good for our business. >> what about -- look, there are going to be some wenners but there's going to be a lot of losers >> yeah, but it's efficient. well, you can complain about inefficient markets because then it's not fair, but when you have efficient markets and you can buy or sell a penny wide, you can't complain you can take either side you can't argue about a penny wide market. >> bed bath was a meme stock now. >> i was trying to think of an analogy but i couldn't come up with any basically you're saying think of some terrible thing like wow, it's great for the emergency room business, a lot of people are in here. not necessarily great, tom, if it's long-term just all speculation based on nothing it brings that gambling aspect
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into the stock market. unless we still want to think we're gram and dot and we're not. >> i think the argument is if you're in an inefficient market meaning it's unfair on the retail side, then i completely understand but if you have a two-sided market that's a penny wide, who cares. i mean if it brings people in -- >> if that's pretend, if you think the meme stock phenomenon is some pretend land, i don't know if it's the extreme but you have to say the whole thing is pretend. and here we are. is it all pretend? >> well, i don't think think the whole thing is pretend but i think, you know, you can question fundamentals. if you believe in efficient market theory you can question fundamentals all the time for virtually anything you have to kind of believe that everything that's known is pretty much in the marketplace, so what you're really hoping for
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is the opportunity to trade something that has tight markets and sufficient the whole business is about noise, and wherever there's noise that's where everybody gravitates to because that's what's exciting. >> what does this say, though, to the extent meme stocks say anything for example the faang stocks despite interest rates are going up >> what it says there's a lot of interest in stocks there's a lot of money on the side lines and people were scared and rightfully so for a couple of weeks. and when you saw volatility start to come down, that's a lot of risk off. you realize, okay, it's been a risk off couple of weeks and people are excited and when there's that much excitement, listen, as much as you want to look at the apple move from 150 to 175 and say,
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hey, that's great people tend to get excited about a crazy stock like amc i don't but a lot of people get excited about a stock like amc going from $50 to $30. >> if you think the meme stock phenomenon makes no sense, where's crypto in your life? >> crypto is a little bit different because to me the future of defi is a very important point. it validated itself as a pretty stable asset class and didn't budge much you think about globalization and what we're going to be talking about the next couple of years which is probably globalization through secured tokens and the way we're going to be able to trade things 24 hours a day, seven days a week
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of those i want to own bitcoin and ether. >> it's a longer conversation. >> got to come up for air. >> tom, we'll take to you soon appreciate it. >> all the crime in new york must be good for something, what's going on now, right good for the court system, i don't know -- bad for the court. >> a mess. >> it is a mess. >> i would think meantime it is just after 8:00 in new york,and yes, you're watching "squawk box." we're live at the nasdaq market site in tiles square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is off this morning. futures set to open lower, nasdaq off about 62 points, the s&p 500 looking to open down
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right now about # 1 points i want to get straight over to dom chu who's looking at this morning's top movers we're going to start off with fin tech right now because goldman sachs and the team make big calls. first of all you take a look at block, the company formerly known as square. the drown trend in fin tech and issued paypal and block with buy ratings and think this an attractive place to get into the market right now so paypal up about three quarters of a percent and remember steeper down trends if you look at the chart so keep that in mind also fractional losses in apple. but the story bebehind this is a little more intriguing because apple with a half percent decline here could be poised to snap a very long winning streak,
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a possibly historic one because the one we've seen so far, this span right here has now been 11 straight days worth of gains for apple during which it's gained roughly 19% during that winning streak now, the reason why it's important is because if hypetheticly we were to close positive again today, it would be historic for apple. it would tie the longest winning streak apple has ever had in its history going all the way back to 2013. so apple shares and by the way we're closing in on that $3 trillion market cap mark just for you folks at home 183.83 is that so-called magic level. as we do often on this show in this hour a check on the most popular ticker searches on our website, tesla is always up there. apple, by the way, still in the top 10 amc entertainment and gamestop speaking about that meme stock
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and wti and crude still on the list the ten-year two year treasury spread now in the top ten most searched tickers it's the first time i can ever remember seeing a ten-year, two year spread being a top ten mose searched ticker with the likes of apple and tesla and everyone else out there if you're curious what the other ones are out there, check my twitter feed at the domino >> can you imagine if someone in management actually suggested a golf story to me, you think i'm going to not do that >> no, but i can tell who it's going to be about as well because the whole golf world is buzzing right now. remember on social media they showed pictures alleged of his private jet and we heard
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apparently from an unnamed source on the grounds at augusta national that they witnessed his practice run we're talking about tiger woods. and they said he looks good. >> you remember who came back from an accident that was probably worse than tiger's and then won >> yes, mr. hogan. yes, absolutely. i'm excited. it's masters week coming up. i've already made my first batch of pimento cheese. you can tell this is a special time of the year for both you and i, joe >> who cut the cheese for you? >> i'm not going to -- i wasn't going to go there but if you want to. >> i didn't want to. and back to the reality of the world. new this morning germany is warning of possible natural gas rationing amid its dispute with
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russia the kremlin has demanded so-called unfriendly countries pay in rubles for gas. that's stoking fears of an energy crunch in europe. not much stoking was necessary cnbc's brian sullivan joins us now with more since the very first build up on the border of ukraine we've been worrying about europe's energy needs i think, brian >> yeah, remember and before i get into the story, guys, the area of ukraine putin ostensibly wants, not the whole country but it has huge gas reserves they don't think of ukraine as a big energy power, but they have a lot of natural gas so we talked about this war being maybe energy plus other things something to consider. anyway, it's getting worse in europe germany is now warning of natural gas rationing. there is no rationing just yet, but they are getting the population ready kind of prepping them for it
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stage one of this emergency plan there are worries there, and russia could cut off gas flows over lack of payment in rubles remember putin has said russia wants to be paid in rubles not euros or not u.s. dollars. the g7 rejecting that idea but vladimir putin holding firm. this warning kind of a stage one just basically monitoring currently levels of storage but also asking citizens to be smart with usage i know you guys talked about that in the previous hour. right now russian gas and oil, for that matter, is flowing to germany and to europe. they simply cannot not take the gas. it's about 40 or 50% of their energy source, so they still have to take it despite all these other sanctions against russia germany, believe it or not right now are hoping to fuel storage for winter they're starting to think about fall and winter.
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their storage levels are very, very small all right, what is this all doing to prices? we knew prices, guys, aeroalready elevated spot natural gas prices are up 15% overnight. that's that dutch ttf thing we show you that's it. dutch ttf futures do the conversion on that as unwieldy as it is it comes out to about 35 u.s. dollars per mbtu for spot natural gas that is seven times what we are paying here. we show our viewers that $5. theirs is showing $35. all this, by the way, factoring into rampant inflation the kind of inflation, joe, that germany and europe have not seen since world war ii bring that chart back up, guys, please that's producer prices in germany. that is not a misquote they rose 25% year over year
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the long-term average is about 3% and consider this, a lot of this recent spike because remember inflation is not new it's been around now for about a year but this recent added spike is not even really priced in to that ppi number, joe, so producer prices and likely consumer prices are likely going to get a lot worse i'm going to combine what you and dom just talked about with this story there's a brother of mine here in new jersey he's french and brother owns a couple of golf courses except i saw him yesterday and he said he has almost no business because people don't want to drive 20 miles or kilometers or whatever to the golf course because in parts of france gasoline is the equivalent of 10 u.s. dollars per gallon so natural gas is getting bad, getting worse. gasoline is getting worse.
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it's going to hit europe they could be in for a recession. by the way, joe, we're now shipping diesel fuel from the u.s. to europe because there are concerns about diesel fuel levels the last time we shipped diesel fuel from here to there, i have no idea but it's been years if not decades. >> economies don't work without power, energy. though you've got to figure something out. and i guess we really need to start thinking whether it's nuclear or lng or something, things got to change over the next couple of years there muls be some investments that could be made to take advantage of that. >> correct especially, by the way, as everybody wants to live in hot areas, joe, where you're running the air-conditioning all the time renewables are great build them out, but build them out in phoenix and houston and florida. >> okay. we're out of time. thank you for all that, brian --
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brian sullivan >> coming up some breaking economic data out in the next hour we're going to get you the latest read on employment ahead of jobs friday the adp data in just a couple minutes. plus the final revision of fourth quarter gdp futures ahead of those numbers in the red, dow up about 100 points right now but could change ngssr anthony scaramucci and coreman ro khanna, they're going to go at it and give us their take on president biden's billionaire tax. you don't want to miss this debate
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welcome back to "squawk box. it is time for the march adp employment report and the one and only steve liesman has the numbers. steve? >> andrew, thank you 455,000. adp says private payrolls in the month of march grew by 455,000 thy revised for february to 486,000. but looking at the numbers or the details, good sector doing quite well, nearly 80,000 and a big jump on the service side we'll show you more detail on that in a second nonfarm payrolls is 490,000.
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moving on by business size we did see pretty good distribution up, small business up by 90,000. remember that was in negative last month, and there were some concern maybe -- and i think there's still decent concern small business is losing out to larger businesses in the quest for workers given how squars labor has been medium up 188,000 and large businesses up by 177,000 looking at industry we are seeing still a continued rebound from the omicron slow down leisure hospitality surging by 161,000. manufacturing still doing well we did see 9,000 in the natural resources mining we'll see how much more we can do there given your conversations about mining more oil and producing more gas in this country they're going to be constrained just like other industries despite the huge prices and demand joe? >> okay, steve, thank you. joining us now for market
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reaction on all this the chief investment officer we've been kind of the best house in kind of a scary world neighborhood, and we've had some good stock market action where we know what's happening in ukraine. it's just unbelievable, but it's far away and certainly impacting europe more than us, so that makes us attractive. we've got a covid outbreak in shanghai, but maybe it's on rise here but is this just a brief respite from the problems of the world that has our -- not today but we have been in a little bit of an uptrend as far as equities, a bounce back. >> yeah, there's been three things driving the recent market rally, and that is peace talks for the russia-ukraine situation, the fed and also commodities. with russia-ukraine we think peace talks would be somewhat elongated. the impact over the long run
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should be minimal. the fed has been interesting as they turn more hawkish markets actually like it, baize because they feel like the fed is finally getting their arms around inflation, and this reduces the tail wind around inflation. we see earnings estimates continue to increase we think earnings growth can carry the market this year and of course commodity prices if we can get to some deescalation in russia and ukraine that would put less pressure which would help reduce inflation. today i think the market is going to take a bit of a breather as we await to see what progress we can make in russia and ukraine. >> i guess the fed is getting a lot of bang for their buck then, sarah, if you say that what body language, they've done a quarter point increase, and you're saying now it looks like they got their act together why? the way they're jawboning,
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powell it seems his verbiage got more hawkish but not through his actions. >> they definitely moved from the transitory view to more of a consistent fairly aggressive rate hikes going forward, but what the market was becoming more concerned about is that inflation is going to run so high and how is the fed going to catch up to it it's a fine line, though, the fed is trying to create a g goldilo gold goldilocks scenario. a recipe for stagflation isn't there. we're watching wage inflation closely and the economic data remains strong those are two off sets of inflation. and the fed as long as they can aggressively raise rets immediately which we think they'll do, then if inflation starts to simmer down, they can take the foot off the gas. that's what the market is optimistic about >> aggressive means 50
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you're saying there will be a 50 at some point? >> we think there'll be aggressive consistent rate hikes. we're actually in the 25 camp for now. they could go to 50. i think the market is more in between in a sense so the market wouldn't be too surprised for 50 the next handful of meetings and then see what happens from there. >> you consider that aggressive even from these really low levels so what they do five, six, seven, each meeting to a quarter point and to you that signals enoughand taking inflation seriously even if they only go 25 for the next five or six meetings >> remember inflation we do have a lot of noise right now we have high energy prices which have become even higher due to russia and ukraine when the fed raises rates the impact is not seen right away, so i think they need to be
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aggressive but not too aggressive in the sense they need to see results of what they're doing before we run into the risk they overdo it and we actually do run into a recession, which as i mention that's not our base case >> you view any news coming out of ukraine as a backdrop to what you would think is actually should be more front and center for investors and that's the fed. we do hear things coming about peace and things, but that is secondary to just the thing we worry about all the time even when there's not a geopolitical event. >> from the market's point of view if you look at the impact on global growth from russia it is not extremely significant, so really they're going to have more of a limited impact in regions that are closer to them, which is what's making the u.s. a safe haven trade, but they do have an impact on inflation because of oil price
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>> all right, thank you. i guess it's good for financial news when financial news is more important, it's hard to believe, but it's the way that stuff effects oil and interest rates >> all intertwined >> it is that's where we feel weird with the import and the seriousness of what's happening, and then we reduce it to quarter point, 25 basis point versus 50 and -- >> that's what it is coming up, though, talking about financial news this is a debate you do not want to miss on president biden's new budget and especially that proposed tax on americans, roughly 700 billion-airs we're going to speak with ro khanna after the break and anthony scaramucci first as we head to that break take a lack at the best investment ideas and themes in health care right now. cnbc's healthy returns it's happening today. features the ceos of wal greens
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welcome back to "squawk box. crypto hackers hitting a network that runs popular online game to a tune of nine figures it's connected today the game axion infinity in a blog post is lost about $15 million. makes now the largest defy theft in history close to $17 million of stolen athereium has already been transferred to exchanges like ftf. this is actually an example of one of the big problems. maybe it's just a journey. those bulls would say it's just a journey. bears would say it's an example of real problem mere >> did you know there was a crypto game site
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>> i didn't know about this particular game site, but the larger concept that money can just disappear is a problem. >> certainly can i admire people who have private wallets and stuff. i'm not doing that >> but do you believe that a coin base or any of the larger sites will genuinely protect you? that's the other thing >> i don't know. i have a certain amount in coin base, but i'd be scared it it was like a lot >> this is large issue >> i bet $5. so a lot of money to me is not a lot of money up next more breaking economic data we'll get a final look at fourth quarter gdp as we get ready to wrap up this year's fourth quarter. stay tuned "squawk box" is right back
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welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli here live at cme hq with breaking news. our third time around the block on fourth quarter gdp of course as we get ready to button up first quarter 2022 gdp numbers are trickling in slow, but if we look at the consumption, personal consumption, it's downgraded to 2.5. that's a big drop from 3.1, and on the headline gdp which the
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second time around was 7%, takes a bit of a dip to 6.9% of course we're waiting for the gdp price index and core personal consumption expenditure, and of course these pricing components that go along with the gdp, i don't see them in yet 7.1 is the high-water mark on the price index, and of course that takes us all the way back to 1981. you find a higher comp don't see it yet oh, here we go 7.1% 7.1. so it remains at what is the highest level going back to 1981 where you'll find the next highest level, which would be 8% and 5% remains for the core pce quarter over quarter that is nowhere near the high-water mark which was 6.1% recently and grosses the highest level since 1983 the market doesn't seem to be taking a lot of movement off
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this, but i really think that consumption number is something to deal with we continue to monitor all that as yield curves and all the indicators one most likely should take a glance and look at while they also look at some of the good job creation they've seen and not forget even if these recessionary indicators are right there is a very long time lag from a year and a half to potentially longer. back to you. >> all right, rick, stay with us as we bring in steve liesman react to the day and then i have a question i think for both of you distinguished fellows. >> distinguished fellow. you're not talking to me, are you, joe >> we all aspire to that i've been introducing people they're distinguished fellows add hoover, and i think we're all kind of distinguished fellows at least in our own mind >> yeah, real quick on the data, joe, rearview mirror, rick is right to point out the consumption is interesting but still i think we're going to have a 1%, 1.5% quarter this
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quarter because of the omicron, so not necessarily the gas, and we remain on lookout to see how higher gas prices are working their way into the economy, and it's such a tough thing to find because we have this rebound in travel and leisure which is happening naturally as people emerge from having been in their own personal quarantines, so it's going to be tough to tease this out in the first couple of months here, joe, and we're just going to have to watch the cume r consumerer i don't think even think the sentiment data matters that much >> so my questions have to do with participation rate for both of you gentlemen and wage gains. those are going to be in the weeds in friday's number rick, at least at this point in time even on the east coast if people are going to come back, they're coming back now. do you expect the participation rate to improve? are there people out there that we can use to satisfy these jobs
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that are still open? and to induce that are there going to be higher wages are we going to see higher wages finally? >> no, i think the answer to part one in my opinion it would be absolutely, do see participation rates going up maybe the secret sauce was kids going back to school i'm not sure there's articles today in the journal about retirees having second thoughts like that famous quarter bab, so the answer is yes. on the second i do think wages are going to continue to shadow box the national inflation rates, but i think they're going to continue to lag but, yes, to answer your question i do see higher wages the real issue is how much ground we'll be losing and the stickiness of current year over year and month over month inflation rates. >> steve, quickly. >> yeah, i don't think we get back to where we were anytime soon i think some of those folks who retired are probably not coming back i think the issue becomes legal immigration and getting back to the levels that we were and
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trying to bring people in legally to this country, give them visas to work and it's going to be higher wages but not necessarily -- that's not the only answer the answer is having actual people, and we're going to need to bring people into the country. >> all right, gentlemen, thanks. rick, i heard a new one, retirees i can't help myself. retirees is a good one coming up, president biden's billionaire income tax would it work, and can it pass and after it passes, what about the courts we're going to speak with democratic congressman ro khanna and former white house communications director anthony scaramucci you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc
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welcome back to "squawk box. making headlines this morning intel ceo has earned $178 million in total compensation last year. >> numbers disclosed in a new sec filing including $140 million in stock
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awards he took the intel ceo job in february 2021. >> i don't want to get him i want to be him how's that >> you want to be him? >> well, not specifically. >> sure but take a look at this. stock started in '21 look at the stock, down. >> it's based on something >> it's a market of what what's the market? >> it's a market for ceos. >> i have a different question for you and pat and i don't know each other very well if he were to leave intel tomorrow is there another company in america right now that wants to pay him 160 or $170 million >> well, that's the difference between him and max scherzer just because a guy with a great curve, a lefty with a great curve makes more than gelsinger. >> great
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my question is there a market for him right now at that price? >> why didn't the board think of that >> does the board ever think of that >> why would they be in gelsinger's pocket >> i actually like pat a lot i think he's doing a lot of good things, but i'm just saying is that a fair market price for his services >> well, if he did get the stock up -- >> if he does -- >> if he did get the stock up and he was compensated with some stock you don't want him to be able to sell it anyway >> why not i want lim to sell the stock if it's with buy backs -- is there another company -- by the way, could there be a private equity company that would make a deal with him for five years that would pay him that amount of money seriously? >> i don't know, but i think he's -- >> he's a very smart guy totally. >> he might be the last engineer
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in the country because of our stem issues. >> we're going to talk more right now about high net worth americans and president biden's proposed billionaire income tax. specifically how would it work would it raise the 100 of billions promised and could it get through congress and survive the courts that's the question. >> they might know is anyone worth that much, ro? >> i know pat gelsinger well he's committed to actually building semiconductor manufacturing in ohio, $20 billion investment he grew up in pennsylvania he wants to have manufacturing across america intel has been in a lot of trouble. he's trying to turn it around. >> is there $160 million market for his services right now >> do i think he should pay a fair tax on that, absolutely but, look, intel used to be the
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leader used to manage manufacturers 37% of chips in this country it's down to 12% they got pat gelsinger because they said we've got to turn it around, we don't want to lose out to taiwan. he has a vision for building semiconductor manufacturing in the united states. president biden recognized him at the "state of the union." i think he's a very talented person, but i think you have to pay fair tax on that compensation >> anthony, i don't know if you want to weigh in on pat's income or pat's taxes >> i've got to correct joe i wasn't there for 11 seconds. it was 11 days, and i am a distinguished fellow >> anthony, are you sure it wasn't 11 seconds and it felt like 11 days >> let me tell you something it felt like 11 years number one, pat is being paid what the market wants to pay
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him. ro is right he should pay taxes on that, that's income but this billionaire's tax is usually dangerous for the country. taxes should be a price for services we shouldn't be manipulating the social organism or the social contract of the united states and disrupting the entire capital market system that has made america so great and made it the largest economy in the world, and i think this is very dangerous stuff the government is about to do, and i don't think it can get passed, moreover, and i hope it doesn't. >> anthony, i need help answering andrew,'s question, though, and rebulleting him. you say it's a market for pat gelsinger. what market? who else is going to pay him that and then i say, well, the board decided it well, what if it is a crony board that decides to do that. is it really a market? >> joe, it's like the art
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worlds traded for $400 million, why because someone wanted that painting and was willing to take it the board made that decision it's not like anybody went to the board's head and said this compensation package is not fair or not on market you could have a market of one as long as it's a free and fair market >> anthony, can we just say for a second i don't disagree -- well, no, i do disagree. typically what do they say you need -- not to be sexist or gendered but they say you need two girls at the dance to find the prices -- but, anthony, the point is the board -- you tell me maybe there is a market. maybe he was being offered $170 million by somebody else >> joe, let me ask you a question if you were getting hired by that board and they offered you that compensation package would you turn around and say, jeez,
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this is off market i i'm not taking the package >> well, matt scherzer makes a lot more than pat gelsinger. >> i don't know what gelsinger is making a year but i'll take scherzer and you can come hang out with me during the world playoff series this year >> let's go to the world of unrealized gains that's still the issue de jure here we need to discuss. it has nothing to do with pat's salary this morning. should this be taxed, and why don't we just do the simple things in lifelike deal with the estate tax, deal with carried interest, deal with real estate loopholes and all sorts of other things what is the problem here that we're having to go into these other sorts of mechanisms? >> we should do all the things you say. i'll tell you what the challenge is i represent a district that has $11 trillion of market cap
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people say manufacturing in this country and wages has stagnated. and there's all these billionaires, and by the way all of these billionaires aren't paying the same tax so there's anger in this country. i tell this to all my constituents who are billionaires and many are saying okay we can pay. i think everyone can agree people who have made billions of dollars should pay 20% in tax. >> when you say making a billion dollars you mean in unrealized gains? >> it's not like many of them have unrealized gains. i realize the problem of unrealized gains we're talking people who were worth over $100 million here i have a lot of respect for
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anthony, by the way. and i understand the point on precedent for unrealized gains for people who are maybe ordinary at a company or stock options. here i think you're talking about some of the richest people in the nation and in the world >> so the problem with what the representative is saying but the problem of what he is saying is you're going to disrupt the capital market system, and this is a system and i don't want to see that happen. moreover, let's talk about what really happened. we inducted a tremendous amount of money through the federal reserve. that got exacerbated in the stock market in terms of the wealth disparities, and so now rather than just fixing that and applying both fiscal discipline to the monetary policy and having a budget like a
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pay-as-you-go strategy we used to have in the '90s, we're counteracting with this with something i think would be disastrous with capital market formation. moreover, the risks are going to be among us. it's okay to be rich, and we like people in this country being rich we don't like to move the capital out of the united states and do the taxes and the burden of taxation. i gelt the point they're rich and so they can afford to pay it, but you're going to set this thing up in a way where their long-term plan is going to be altered, and i don't want that to happen to the country >> the only thing i would say with respect is 90% of americans invest in the united states. 90% of american wealth where are they going to go russia, china? we're still the greatest place to invest. >> it's because our tax code is so good, though, ro. don't alter something that is so good that encourages people to come here and invest
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don't do it. you're opening up a pandora's box. focus your love on crypt currency and bitcoin, bro. >> gentlemen, we'll all get lunch together we appreciate it ghr now we're going to leave it rit there. squawk coming right back after this take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪♪
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get down to the new york stock exchange jim cramer can settle this is 2 possible, jim, for a ceo to be as good in running a company as like kevin durant is at helping a team win >> kevin durant saved joel pat gelsinger has not -- you
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know, i've been thinking about pat, though. everyone admits he's an earnest guy. we love him. he came in when the stock was at $62. it's at $52. definitely andrew would say he'll probably take less salary than he was supposed to have simply because the stock is down a lot. so i suggest -- and maybe he will, cut his salary. >> is it a market -- here is the argument is there someone else that will pay him that much so it is a market or do we still have the -- >> no. >> all boys' club former ceos so they're part in on it. giving ceos too much money >> no. they were having a hard time getting someone because the company was run into the ground by the previous two ceos no one really wanted the job and they overpaid. but, you know, i like your
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analogy. they overpaid. the phillies would scherzer in a heart beat no one would take gelsinger. he'll say, you know, i was overpaid and take less i think he'll do that. >> much clearer in sport the. >> yeah. andrew, i think he'll take a pay cut. you said he was earnest. you said you liked him everybody likes him. >> i think he's a bright guy. >> yeah. he'll understand he's overpaid i mean, no he's this guy is basically overpaid and i think he knows it. he looks at the stock at $62 and sees it at $52 it's in the 40s and said i listen to the conversation on squawk and taking pay cut. i don't need the money i'll give it away. >> what is the board doing >> well, they couldn't find anybody. >> we have to go i think there's a big board -- they have one of the weakest in the country.
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>> i think he was overpaid this guy -- >> okay. jeremy segal no way he's getting paid enough for what he is worth. professor of finance at the university of pennsylvania is it really a market, do you think, in your view? an all boys network that rewards their own? >> it's like sports, too you know, the top keeps on rising relative to the minimum on the bottom. that's fact. why even coaches now i look at dollars in what they made 30 years ago. it's not only they make more
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because of inflation but being a coach is more than double from what they used to get paid back then i don't know how it works. >> yeah what happened for professors it hasn't happened. >> i don't know. so, professor, we always think of you as being, you know, 30,000 on the dow and we earn 10,000 things like that are you at 60,000 or 70,000 or are the best days -- is the fed in a hiking mode there it's not as great as it was 10 years ago >>well, listen the next 12 months of earnings, i looked it up, s&p $230 now we're selling for $4600 on the s&p. now the math is really simple. it's 20 times earnings forward earnings and that's very reasonable i mean, it's not cheap but very reasonable in a very low interest rate environment even though they are hiking
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but as you know, and i've been on it many times i think the fed will have to hike even more than what the market thinks. so a lot of progress certainly forward 40 or 50,000 is certainly going to be harder in the first half of this year if not even a little bit longer. >> being the greatest place in the world to do business with great laws and everything else that takes over eventually, doesn't it >> in the long run absolutely 20 pe is a 5% after inflation rate of return take a look at bonds right now negative after inflation rates are returned so, i mean, you know, there's really no -- it's where you want to be in the long run. and still no question about that. >> all right we have to have you back we have to keep it short somehow it's 9:00 a.m. or getting close. professor, thank you maybe i'll see you in a couple of weeks
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big events coming up down in philly thank you. final check on the markets we're down now almost exactly 100 points we'll see what happens as the session goes it has to do with oil and interest rates and the yield curve. >> this was fun. if we got both sides of everything come on. >> we did. make sure you join us tomorrow and do it again with becky good wednesday morning welcome to sk"squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer the kremlin down plays any notion of the cease-fire talks the vix below 20 road map begins with some recession risks. the bond market sounding the alarm and a stark warning from the ceo of restoration hardware. apple is eyeing a $3 trillion market cap once


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