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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  April 7, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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continues. c.z. is talking to prime ministers and regulators to worry about zuck bucks or dealing with a whole bunch of random cryptocurrencies. y yes, you mentioned tech stocks, hpq, hewlett-packard which you mentioned earlier up 15.5% halftime report starts now welcome to "the halftime report" i'm melissa lee in for scott wapner quantitative tightening on the horizon. when will we know this tightening is priced in especially for the beaten down techtrade and we'll debate that and how to position your portfolio from here. our investment committee today, brenda vingiello, john farr, and josh brown and jon najarian, co-founder of market rebellion.com. the s&p and nasdaq on pace for their first losing week in four. right now we are close to session lows on the s&p 500.
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we are down 23 points or half a percent for the nasdaq and we are down by 1% here. the ten-year yield 2.647% with slight steepening going on in the yield curve. how do you factor this all in, michael farr we heard from the fed minutes that we were going to get a greater amount of tightening on top of a greater amount of tightening expected in the rate hikes. what is the market pricing in at this point >> melissa, i think the markets are still trying to believe the federal reserve. every one of these market pullbacks has been on the heels of some fed governor., if not jy powell himself coming out with some version of we mean it this time we'll take them up half a point this time and we will do more and we'll be really serious and i think part of this is the fed in many ways has lost some credibility of being the tough guy with markets, of really laying down the law because every time the markets have gone down, the fed has been there
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with ample cash. so i'm not sure markets are still convinced that they're going to go through with it. so to your question, how much is priced in? probably about half and i think every one of these further announcements you're seeing the market react and say gee, they mean it this time. i think they have to take it at their word here that they do really mean it and wells fargo came out today and said they expect a half a point in may, half a point in june, three more hikes this year. three more hikes in the beginning of next year and we're going to a fed funds rate according to wells fargo and their chief economist there. 3 3.25% on fed funds markets aren't expecting that. some of it is priced in and some is being taken more seriously. >> that's a great point that some markets are pricing in the tightening and if you look at
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the fed funds and what they're pricing with the cadence of rate hikes and the size of rate hikes and the equity markets aren't pricing all of that in on top of what we learned yesterday about the balance sheet runoff >> that's a good point this is what i would tell you. the vix is up 12% in the last five days. that is a fairly large increase, up another 2% today. you have some outperformance in areas that are not thought to be as susceptible to the economic cycle, like health care, consumer staples outperforming and i would note biotech and i talked about it yesterday. it's pretty good but outside of that i'm looking at 52-week lows and goldman sachs and 30-year fixed mortgage, now four spot 72 and that's the fastest three-month rise going back to 1994. the stock market is very rapidly catching up to the reality that
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the bond market seems to have been on to first there is a tendency to overshoot, though. so i think we're probably going to retest the february lows with the quality stocks i don't know how that retest is going to go. >> i don't know what the overall headline situation is going to be at the moment that we do that retest, but i really feel that that is what professionals are focused on right now that's going to be one of those moments in truth that we seem to have every year or so as stock market participants. so until that happens, if you're a trader, you're probably out there tightening up your stops and maybe you're letting a lot of setups go by. if you're seeing ten setups maybe you're taking the best two or three pure breakouts and you're probable not doing your third or fourth best trade and if you're a long-term investor, you're probable looking for stocks that have been cut in half, that you want to own for the long term and you're willing
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to be wrong or early by 10% or 20%. outside of that, i don't think this is an environment where you want to think you're smarter than the market. we are seeing this phenomenon where you get a rally in tech stocks for four or five days and all of a sudden you think you have it figured out and you give up the whole rally in three hours. that's not a fun environment for hobbyists or retail traders that are only kind of half looking. so if you're in that boat, probably do less is the right default. >> josh says vix, and i think of pete we've seen a 20% increase in volatility in just this week alone and yet you're still only at 23. if you take a look at the markets we're looking at leadership groups and semiconductors and transports. what do you make of where we are now and how much volatility is being priced in the months >> it's very interesting, mel and you make a good point and we
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were talking about vix over 30 and 37 these moves do happen and i would say this and it is a great opportunity for people who are really into the markets and they want to be very aggressive and we've been very aggressive and very nimble and that's kind of the way you have to be in this kind of a market because of exactly what you just said, look at where the volatility index went at the start of this, and you have to be disciplined and all of that is a big component and last week we talked about the fact that i have nearly 70 different derivatives positions on now i've cut it back a little bit and i'm still pretty big and what's going on in the derivatives markets. in terms of stocks, though, mel, i have not found stocks that i've wanted to buy and part of that has to be -- >> hold the presses. stop the presses
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pete najarian just said he's not found stocks that he wants to buy. you are an active trader, pete you're in the markets every si single day and there's not one single stock out of 5,000, give or take that you'd want to buy >> well, you form a good question there, but i do have about 45, 50 positions in stocks right now. so i'm not adding to those stocks and i've not added new stocks and i am looking. i think there are great opportunities out there and i'll even give you a short list of a couple of names that i like the look of and setup of and i agree with what josh was saying. there's no reason that we couldn't test the lows of february that he was discussing just moments ago i'll give you one. i'll give you best buy and a name like williams-sonoma. you and i talked about that and that was a pitch stock on the 5:00 show a while back and that stock ran from 130 to 200 and time to get out and time to get back out and here it is toward 130 and that's one of those names where i'm looking closely,
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mel. i think she does an absolutely amazing job just like with better buy, but if you look at where they're trading right now as far as p-e and the cash positions and the previous quarter earnings, all of that checks just about every box. i just don't think i need to get in early right now because there could be some pressure to the down side. brenda vifrjel on, i'm sure you have a short list and are you more inclined to wait on the sidelines given what you see coming in the markets? >> well, we're long-term investors, and i think if you look at the environment right now and the list of worries has just continued to escalate, strategists have been taking numbers down for this year, but i think we have to examine the health of the underlying economy which we can't take for granted and it's incredibly strong, and we've had zero rate hikes so far. even if you take inflation out of the question, the underlying health of the economy is incredibly strong and can argue that rates should be higher than
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they are today so i think the question we grapple with is can the market -- can the market handle a pretty significant rate hike even if it's 2% to 3% just given the underlying health of the economy. except for ed yardeni is when we look at earnings and revenue in an inflationary environment, as long as demand stays strong, revenue and earnings should also inflate and that will be especially true in areas like the services sector, leisure, travel, hospitality, and areas that have been where the investor -- where the consumer has not spent as much and where we haven't seen as much inflation, but there is likely the ability to pass along higher prices and higher costs. so i think we'll learn a lot this earnings season just about what companies are seeing and what prices they're able to pass along and what they're not so i'm looking forward to seeing directly from companies and
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we're more constructive here and think there are some opportunities. >> how are you feeling about earnings season, josh? i'm curious because it feels like an earnings season where companies say we can't predict anything and we won't give you good guidance here >> i would like for that to be the case, but i don't think anyone is getting a free pass and what we've seen in the last earnings period was that companies that beat their number and guided higher got a flat stock price the next day companies that just met the number were down between 5% and 10% and if you missed, good night. i don't see that changing materially and i don't think travel is strong and services are strong i agree with what brenda is saying the demand is there and the stock market is going to act as the leading edge and any whiff of that demand starting to tale off because of higher prices, the stock market's going to
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overreact and i think if you look at airlines today, united down 4%, delta down three and a half southwest looks terrible, american looks worse travel stocks in general look at carnival, royal, las vegas sands, mgm, the market is anticipating a consumer that at a certain point looks at prevailing prices and says, you know what? yes. travel's pent up i want it to go away and i want to do something and maybe i go away for three nights instead of five or maybe i drive instead of fly. that is, unfortunately, going to be what ends up happening specifically if we start to have more destruction in the weight effect and i have to tell you the volatility of this market will contribute to that and home prices will peak for the cycle and you will see some demand destruction come from a softening real estate market the mortgage stat i just cited is extremely meaningful.
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it's not just stocks take a look at the ten-year treasury etf, very popular etf, down 14% peak to trough. that's the area of investors' portfolios that they thought they were safe in. so i really do think that the wealth effect has helped us out to the upside and has bolstered the down summer throughout 2021, and unfortunately, that also works in the other direction and the destruction that we've seen in q1, i think is going to hit earnings at a certain point because of how important the consumer is. >> all good points there >> we've been talking about what the markets are pricing in what kind of tightening is being priced into the market how many basis points are being priced into the market let's bring in economics reporter steve liesman and he's looking at how quantitative tightening will translate an you'll help us answer the question, steve. >> i hope to do my best here, melissa, as i always do.
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so the way they're looking at this is qt and plus or minus and it could be a lot more or a lot less and what the studies show is $700 billion of qt is worth about a quarter-point cut. so then you have to scale that up and if you look at the projections now, we know what the numbers are where the fed will be and $700 billion you can expect this year 1.8 trillion over through 2023 and -- 3 trillion over the course what you find is that's worth maybe 100 basis points of the full qt. it's not that much, but if you do the math, guys, if you can do the next screen which looks at -- if i add it to the rate hikes, you have a fed funds rate that's now trading for -- in the futures market about 3.1% for the end of 2023, and i add in, i
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don't know, 50 or 75 -- okay yeah that shows you where the funds rate was trading in the end of 2023 right now and you go to the next screen and we'll do the math altogether and this is not high math, folks you get to a total amount of tightening if you use the balance sheet loosely. .75% and that's a lot of tightening and the upshot is i think the fed may be out with the bad news here. i don't think that it's going to try to put more out there in terms of what else it can do i know michael farr was talking about the ever-rising rhetoric from the fed we'll do more. we'll do more, we'll do more they basically socialized 50 basis points cuts and they've socialized a $95 billion runoff of the balance sheet and i know bullard talked this morning from st. louis. he wants more, i think you'll have to wait to do more, but i think in terms of the pace, i
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think it's out there now and now the market has to figure out valuations and volatility and all of the fun things that josh brown and the other traders are talking about. >> you have a number now, michael farr, 3.75% in tightening through 2023. how do we factor that in how do we think about that >> okay. so that's -- that's a lot, and if the consumer is as strong as the fed suspects they are, and i think the fed might be getting this wrong, that could be the soft landing formula that's what we're looking for. we're looking for that path to shannon -- to brenda's neutral rate how do we get to that neutral rate and that's that rate where we neither expand nor restrict economic growth. that's that neutral rate we're looking for. we have consumers, 50% of the consumers really didn't see asset growth and 50% of the consumers, while they're seeing wage growth, this is the lower
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half of the demographic economically are facing these higher prices. i'm thinking that there could be some more demand destruction out there for a bigger swath of the population than the fed's calculating when they're looking at savings rates and housing prices and the dallas fed uses words like unhinged which i totally disagree with. i think -- that's just a really bad word for any fed to use, unhinged, and particularly -- >> can -- >> go ahead. >> somebody -- >> michael, you make a good point. we're not yet at the point where we're seeing demand destruction, and i don't think the market is particularly set up for that, and when that -- but here's the problem. the things that are causing the inflation, the fed has very little to do with, and. >> absolutely. what do you want them to did
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about energy we knew that oil prices were going up, but what sent them to overdrive is completely outside of the purview of anything the fed has any control over other than to react to or some might say overreact to same with food prices. what do you literally want them to do about a situation where the number one and two wheat producers on earth are in a war with each other? let's be serious here. >> the take aaway >> guys. hold on! hold on. hold on. hold on. hold on. i think the takeaway is that the fed can't do anything about it i'll go out on a limb, steve, to say that i think you probably agree with that that the fed can't do anything about crops not being planted in ukraine or grain sitting in silo which is is inflating food prices at this point and i think that's the problem. so what are we pricing in here we're pricing in 3.5 to 3.75
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plus demand destruction from a potentially pressured consumer and what kind of economy is that, steve liesman. what does the fed do about that? can it do anything >> rather than correct josh brown, i wanted to agree with him and tell him that it's worse than what he even laid out the two areas that the fed should have the most effect on autos and housing, i think are going to be very immune to any impacts of rate hikes and i'll tell you why i think we have this long-running, maybe longer than a decade undersupply of housing. you may get some topping off of housing prices i don't see them going down and changing the cpi input from housing in a meaningful way. the auto business is running a 13, 14 million units it should be normally at 16 or 17 million units i don't think the fed should or will have much effect on that
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part of the economy coming back, and i don't think, of course, you're absolutely right, melissa, it's not going to have any impact on the trade on the food side of things or on the energy side of things. what the fed can and should do is get to neutral, some form of neutral which is 2%, 2.5% on the funds rate and start to bring down the balance sheet and then look around. it doesn't really matter if the fed is right or wrong on bringing down inflation in the first phase of this tightening cycle. the reason is because there is no reason, there's no excuse to be at zero or even 0.375 the funds rate now auto to be at about 200 and 2 1/2 -- 2 impor2.5% and the only question is how fast we get there and just to be clear it was the impact of the qe plus the rate hikes >> right
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some people might even say it's negligent that we are where we are in terms of the rate brenda. >> right. >> knowing all of this now and you're sort of a more sunny disposition when it comes to the attitude toward the market compared to the other guys on the panel here, but how do we think about, for instance, the techtrade and we know that mega-cap trade stocks and there are pockets that have undergone corrections for a long time. igv, for instance, the software highfliers and we have the ark innovation-type names and how much tightening could be in store? >> yeah. i think in our view, you have to think about tech differently than you probably thought about tech over the last decade and that is now we have all of these large-cap tech names with tons of cash on the balance sheet and lots of pricing power and huge moats around them. in our view, those are the more defensive places to be in our view we own those as more
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of a defensive play and if we're wrong and things aren't as sunny as we think they are and those areas, in our view, are likely to hold up better than other parts of the equity market when you look at areas like unprofitable tech and the software stocks, thouse, i thin will be really hard to get a multiple so those we would still be leery of because we think that multiples will continue to normalize even if fundamentals remain strong in many of those companies. >> pete, a little birdie named presean has told me you own apple calls. and face bobook or meta and whatever you want to call it i've been trading around it and that's the markets that we're in that's why i say this is a great opportunity for those of us who want to be very aggressive with the trading and i still own those stocks and i've had facebook since it was the ipo.
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i've had microsoft for many years since i got the new ceo. i've been in apple since the 1990s. i've been in these stocks and i like to trade around, mel and they've given us great opportunities and we've had huge call buying in all three of the names in the last couple of weeks and they definitely panned out when you look at apple to the run in the upside you have to be disciplined and that is the environment that we're in right now. if you're not disciplined and you're holding on because you think it will be up forever you're in the wrong business and that's what a lot of people are seeing that more and more, and i can see that in the volumes in the options world, mel we are averaging 42.5 million contracts per day right now and a lot of that, i think, speaks to the fact that we are seeing a lot more trading going on rather than on the investment side. >> steve liesman, thank you for participating in our lively conversation this afternoon. we appreciate it >> pleasure. >> up next, josh brown is making moves in his portfolio, plus this stock has lost more than
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half of its value this year, but i just got a buy call and we'll debate that. a reminder and the cnbc's investment club's monthly meeting meets today. it's a master class on how jim cramer is making calls in stocks like these he's adding to the charitable trust. sign up at cnbc.com/join the club halftime returns right after this ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ [sound of helicopter blades] ugh... they found me. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in.
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♪ ♪ ♪ josh brown is making a move in his portfolio he is out of a name that he's owned for about a month. josh, we're talking about moderna. >> yeah. melissa, one of the things i mentioned in the a block about tightening up your stocks, this is exactly what i did with moderna. it was a great trade i backed into it with a buy limit order and it got filled during the panic and it ran up and you really want to try to not have winners turn into losers through negligence because in the end when the vix is spiking all stocks are treated like commodities and get sold off i still think moderna is a good long-term investment and this was a trade for me and i may end up getting back into it, but i am now on the stock and back on
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the sidelines and this is similar to what i just did earlier this week with gm. it's not a call on the stock as an investment and it's just the reality that the fundamentals in the short term really don't matter when everyone else is trying to get out of what they can get out of so that's the story there. >> there's that sell mentality and health care is going gang bursters and it's just a stone's throw away from its 52-week high and i wonder what names you would stick with as defensive plays, pete? >> yeah. i love them. as a matter of fact, i own both pfizer and merck, fell, for many years and today i added some pfizer calls and they were buying upside calls for pfizer and i'll trade around that, as well and there are a lot of different names in that field right now that have great opportunities in front of them josh had a great trade in moderna. there's abbvie and so many other names they think they can trade and can give you opportunity and
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wer seeing that. that was something in the beginning of the year and that was one of the areas i liked was health care because it seemed like this would be a good year for that particular sector to start catching up because they've lagged for so long plus the fact that it's the warren buffett trade where you've got quality names and you trade at extremely low p-es and you have good cash flow and the dividend yield and the combination of all of that is what we've seen out of mr. buffett over the last couple of years where he's aggressive and he's going after the right kind of names with hewlett-packard. >> yeah. let's get to one of our calls of the day. ford downgraded and the firm saying supply chain issues will continue to be a big issue for ford as well as the entire auto industry and it's the call of the day and they're cautious on autoparts as well. >> pete, you recently owned ford calls. i was in tesla calls and i'm out
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of test test exploding to the upside and then they weren't what people finally realized was okay these two companies are doing a great job with the ev space but they're not there yet and are not delivering at a pace everybody is ultimately, incredibly excited about that's why we see the kind of pull back we're seeing now >> 40% year-to-date. >> not named yet. >> that's amazing. >> right look at that jump as well, josh. >> yeah. >> the move to the upside was violent and move to the down side even more violent. >> right. >> yep. >> everybody was pricing in the ev side. >> sure. >> michael how are you feel being ford >> can it manage through financing 3% for the consumer on top of supply chain issues and
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price hikes? >> yes, i think it can i think the demand is there. we have a supply chain issue with ford but ford has outstanding management what bill farley has done in that company is fabulous i mean, he is one seriously quality talented ceo so and at 2.7 or 2.75% dividend with a stock down this much and pent-up demand, the return for this stock is a matter of when not if i don't own it yet but when i see something pull back like that i'm going to take a very close look they are countrying-edge a they are cutting edge and i think well-poised to be very successful i want to take a closer look at it for our long term portfolio. >> i don't know where you stand on ford or if you own it but the notion of the note is plies to a lot of companies, the analysts saying investors are underestimated the impact of
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supply chain and inflation and fed rate hikes i think it could be said of many companies, many different industries that perhaps we're not fully grasping what the impact is going to be. >> yeah, i think it when it comes to autos when you see ford down 4% there's something bake in in terms of bad outcomes. when we look where we're going to put incremental dollars haven't chosen to do so in the auto industry, even though ev is a huge growth trend many that industry but our concern has been the supply challenge right now could turn into a supply glut soon as things ease up a little bit maybe that happens at the same time in the end starting to wayne with rates going up and consumer feeling more pricing pressure maybe that's when things slow down a little bit. >> on to the next call citi says it is safe to enter the metaverse, initiating roblox
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$59 price target josh you're in it how do you teal if feel >> it's one of the worse buys in the last 18 onths, i bought it down huge from its high thinking there was safety where i was getting in. it was stupid. this stock's not going to work right now. i do believe roblox is the closest we have to a meta verse. the business model is phenomenal, kids turning usd into roblox and roblox taking a huge vig on every transaction. i think they should are a technical analyst go to this analyst office and show them things how the actual real world works because it looks more like more 52-week lows, all-time lows in its future. i have a little bit of money in
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this i'm trapped in it. i'm not adding to it, there will be a time and place but this ain't it. >> can i ask a question from portfolio standpoint, josh. >> no you may not. >> i'm going to ask the question, if i get an answer i get an answer if i don't i'll move on. >> go ahead. >> why do you say there's lower lows ahead why not sell it, take the loss, put your money in something that will serve you better. >> that's a really great question because i don't actually know that i'm just telling what you i think could happen not every feeling or opinion i have comes true. >> what? what >> if it had i wouldn't be in this 30% higher than where it is i like it for a long-term play on the metaverse another thing to keep in mind with all stocks like this, no one's going to ring a bell and tell you when they're going to come back in favor this thing is down so much it could spike 30% in two days if
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there's some kind of news announcement or some kind of guidance from the company about how things are going so if you're going to be in it as an investor unfortunately that means living through the tough times too. i never bought it as a trade so i'm not willing to commit more capital for it i don't think it's the right stock for this environment but i do want to be there for when it does turn and i don't think from these levels there's a huge amount of risk here, so that's i guess the best answer i can give to your question i know there's a lot of contradiction in what i'm saying but markets are messy, life is not so simple. >> that is a good saying, josh, i shall put it on the next sample needle point. let's get to the headlines with javers. >> house speaker nancy pelosi tested positive for covid, a wave of infection in washington,
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she was in briefly in proximity to president biden and president obama. she is boosted and no symptoms biden also tested negative last night. and wishes pelosi a speedy recovery in washington, voting to punish russiaer voting unanimous to strip russia of most favored nation trade status clearing the way for tariffs and the billups will go to the house next. the u.n. voted to suspend russia from the human rights council. justice department investigating how and why boxes of documents were moved from the trump white to the former president's mar-a-lago resident, saying some of the documents were marked top-secret by law all of them should have gone to the national archives. in the next hour, final step for
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k brow
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warren buffett making more moves in this market taking a big stake in hp, that stock is
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soaring, frank colin here to break it down, frank >> shares of hp on pace for best day since march 2020, start of the pandemic trading volume 40% higher than average. warren buffett taking a stake in the company with 121 million shares with price tag $4.2 billion. shares of april 1st and 6th days after acquiring poly a hardware maker for $1.7 billion now buffett has famously said he doesn't invest in things he doesn't understand but the need for pc's and hybrid work is not hard to grasp, at all. hp has more than 20% market share for personal computers globally and raising the margin guidance in the pc segment where it gets 70% revenue and plans to buy back $4 billion in stock and alex kraemer questioned the ceo glam
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he appeared on madonna -- not even accounting for today's moves. gardener forecasting flat pc sales in 2022 following a huge spike last year. >> thank you very much, frank holland. by the way this is buffett's third big play since the annual letter in late february. josh, how you feel being this purchase >> this is a classic berkshire hathaway type stock, been around since 1939 in technology might as well be 5,000 years old, might as well be a pyramid 2.8% yield big buyback. they bought 26% of their float in the last two years and it is a bet on a continuation of hybrid and i think that's the bear case is if all of a sudden people stop buying monitors and computer products for their home but clearly hewlett packard is betting this is going to continue and you're only paying
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nine times earnings, i think it's a smart bet, as a shareholder of berkshire i'm happy to see more money put to work opposed to sitting in cash. th got to take a break, stay wi halftime we have latest 2r5i9ds next. trades next.
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. time for unusual activity. pete, what are you seeing? >> i'm going to start off with cardinal health, we talk about health services, you asked about the health care names a moment ago, 52 to 58 this year, the stock pushing that 58 number, and today we're seeing the april 59 calls getting bought. these are giving you a little bit of time for the full expiration cycle 6500 of those were paying 30 cent to 55 cents with the stock around the 58 level. i think this one looks pretty solid. next i've got costco now, costco continues to hit, 52 week high today, looks like it wants to break out, somebody thinks it will by the end of the week, they're buying tomorrow's expiring 600 calls paying $1.20 to $5 they're looking for that i own both these i think it could be interesting by the end of tomorrow. >> all right up next bullish calls on the banks ahead of next week
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big banks are set to report engineers next week, earnings next week outperforming s&p 500 by 12% michael, goldman sachs fresh 52-week low along with citi why are you holding on to this one >> i continue to like goldman sachs. i think people are getting
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nervous about the flatness of the yield curve, maybe inversion of the yield curve, positive yield curve is typically good for banks. you don't bet against goldman sachs over the long term, their clients may or may not make money but let me tell you, goldman sachs always makes money. you get a 2.6% dividend and higher rate environment they have a lot of cash they can earn and the traditional banks i own are better positioned to benefit from higher returns on cash. even a goldman sachs can suddenly in a higher-rate environment earn money on money-market funds again they haven't done it in ten years. this is a positive here. i think the baby is getting thrown out with the bath water watch the price. i'm a holder >> long-term maybe this works out. i hope it does for your say, michael 2 plus percent dividend yield doesn't offset the loss you seen today where do you stand on the banks.
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mike mayo had a note to look at the impact on a steepening yield curve and he prefers main street banking over wall street banking. where do you stand >> i think if we look at what happened with the yield curve inversion now the fed will unwind the balance sheet at a faster pace will be less of a topic of conversation because we're likely to see the yield curve steepen. consumer balance sheets have been in pristine shapes and haven't seen the pick up in lending that would benefit from a steepening yield curve but as consumers work through their savings we are likely to see it pick up in borrowing activity. that should absolutely help the banks. i think it's more an opportunity than anything with the banks giving the recent pull back. if you think we're going into recession we don't think that is the case, and think this is an opportunity here we're excited. >> all right consumer staple sector hitting an all-time high, we'll debate
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whether it's a safe haven with rising inflation the debate and the trades next on "halftime". ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people are taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ e*trade now from morgan stanley.
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consumer stape manies hitting all-time highs one of the best performing sectors this month and year walmart hershey fresh highs today. brenda, you're in hershey? >> our focus, names with growth potential. hershey proven they do recently revised up organic
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expectations looking to are more fortified, above a lot of names in the group do have pricing power. tends to be an area where the individual price is not very high we think they have growth to go and strategic acquisition into areas like salty snacks outside of candy and seeing continued growth in those areas. defensive name but with growth opportunities as well. >> and to borrow a page from the 5:00 show, would you rather walmart or target here >> oh, absolutely target both having a great day. i own target the stock but only walmart in terms of calls, mel seen a lot of activity there a long time walmart way over valued versus target now it's much closer it's an easier -- not easier a tougher call still go with target. >> josh, where are you on retail trade? pointing out charts troubling
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you what it might say about the consumer >> look, my attitude about the consumer staples and this idea, oh, worried about the market buy them going down less. i think that's something for active manager whose have no choice but to be 100% vested in stocks if they don't have cash as an option, you can understand them reaching for, like, campbell's soup and stuff i don't think that's most of our viewers where they have to be 100% in stocks i like hershey some of the names mentioned, i would say don't ever buy a stop purely for the reason you think it's going down less than other stocks in a market downturn. you're not forced to play that game that's a wall street boston game i don't like it. i'm not a fan. >> where do you stand on that game, michael? >> i own this position and yoesh weight in staples. core names for us. pepsi, mondalez, procter & gamble broing earnings close to 10%, all of them
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market multiples, good, decent dividends and hold up not just on market pullbacks josh mentioned also during more difficult economic times all three of the names i own have good, strong pricing power. got good, strong brand names don't have a lot of competition. >> you think there's a limit to that pricing power >> that generic stuff. >> yes, i sdo. >> a limit >> i do, too. >> there is when you run out of runway okay i mean when the consumer runs out of money, yes. you can't keep pushing on the prices, but -- >> how much is outrage you're still paying $3 and the can shrinking or fewer units within the package? consumer -- i'm outraged when that happens to me i'm fortunate but outraged and i don't switch brands. >> still buying toilet paper and toothpaste still buying oreos
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agree but still selling them. >> right still buying oreos. >> about exclusive aggregate tonight at "mad money. 6:00 p.m. eastern time stay with us "final trades" is next on "halftime." >> announcer: are you following the "halftime" podcast what are you waiting for unusual activity and more. look for us in your favorite podcasting app and follow the "halftime" podcast, now. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪
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time for "final trades." brenda >> still really like booking holdings here. a beneficiary not only from dining and open table. they have reinstituted share buybacks really think this company will benefit the environment going forward. >> michael farr? >> raytheon washington, d.c. spending more money on defense raytheon's will benefit. >> josh brown? >> could not agree with michael farr more. my pick today is lockheed. pay close attention to stocks that are within 3% of all-time highs. there is meaning there. >> did you finish that rubik's cube, by the way >> no. >> playing with it the whole show. i'm wondering if you actually finished it. >> no. not for me. >> i guess not. >> i can't. >> pete najarian what do you say? >> mel, first of all, great job
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today. see you at 5:00. will be great. kinross gold love it. september 6th calls i bought as well. >> do not miss "fast money" tonight at 5:00. mean time, stay tuned. "the exchange" begins right now. >> thank you very much, melissa. hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans and here's what's ahead markets feeling nervous as the fed get more aggressive tightening vix up, transports down. markets continue sell-off broadly and a wrinkle investors have to digest here to talk more about that, our guest. and mortgage rates hitting all things housing, even lows. down more than 20% talk to the analysts nailed it downgrading them's in late 2021. today is opening day major league baseball and pouring here here, anyway mean

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