tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC April 12, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
dell >> pretty interesting, frank, thank you. the dow is up 230. the ten-year yield has fallen, and of course tomorrow they are getting us started on earnings season to take us through this next few weeks, let's get to the judge. >> peak inflation, that's what some influential market watchers are saying, is that the right call we debate that, joining me today, stephanie, john and jerry, 12:00 noon in the east. let's check where we stand in the marks. it's an up day, less than feared there is the dow good for 226. getting a little relief there.
the yields drop down to 270. that's the ten year note yield you're looking at. tom lee has been out, and he is like i think inflation is peeking and he has been able to remain as bullish or more bullish than most and now none over than jeffrey gunlock. we're near peak inflation. he admits it will be sticky on wages and rends, but he thinks that inflation it peaking. what do you make of all of that? >> it could be, and i hope it is it doesn't change my thinking at all. sure the headline number today wasn't as bad as feared, but let's go underneath the surface and look at some components. i know we're supposed to look at core, food, and energy, but it is huge.
food was up 9% and energy is up 11%. by the way wti up another $5 today. soy beans are up quite a bit, corn at a record high. sure maybe, maybe that commodity side can come down a little bit. but i think when you do look at wages and rents, the dow and the fed expects that it will be 6.9% by 2027. home prices are up 15% around the country, in some places more, and it follows rents and housing by about a year. i think you will continue to see pressure on the stickier parts of inflation the numbers are real and they're very, very impactful i don't think it will change anything maybe 50 again the year after. we'll have to see what the data. >> you sound like a bear
>> i'm not a bear. i'm no the a bear, i'm saying inflation will stay hot. inflation will stay hot, let me finish so if you look at pivoting to earnings, which i'm very excited about, because question stop focusing so much on the macro. now we will hear realtime what companies have to say. i think they are probably conservative 5% earnings growth and revenues, total revenues, about 10.8%. if you exclude financials, earnings will come in about 12%. i think that is really going to be a very healthy sign and i think these stocks, a lot of them are down and out, particularly the siccyclicals, m not a bear
i'm balanced and you know that is what i have been doing all year long. >> touche, i hear you. so dr. jay, gunlock said to stay short cyclicals and long defensive names. dance with what got you here, basically, right if you're worried about the economy, don't play the cyclicals. stay defensive, staples, ut util utilities, the thing that's have worked lately, dock. >> and just to touch on what stephanie was saying briefly, the president today said he would increase ethanol and gasoline we are seeing corn prices that are double what they were two years ago. they will go higher, cannot, because corn is a major component for most that you can use any biomass for ethanol. and corn is what we feed animals
as well as human beings. so the prices going up there and more competition for corn means that given the knew try yant cut off, i think we're likely to see significantly higher prices for food stuffs and you can say you have to take out food and energy, but the american people are not going to take that out so you can say they take in it in as what it means. people in the shopping centers looking at their inflationary inputs they're going to continue to go higher we have not peaked by a long shot >> this idea of shorting cyclical stocks, we're go to talk about the note in a moment, but they have downgraded
industrials, part of the reason is why steph laid it out they moved to under weight industrials. expectations for under performance amid growth cycle risks and they say to stay long defensive names. before we get to the other part of the note, how about this idea given what gunlock had to say today and what ubs wants you to do for cyclicals and defensive stocks >> we're seeing that you still want to be overweight into materials, energy, and consumer stapblees. we don't see the argument for a strong under weight at this point.
you will also have a recovery that will be doing well. i'm not sure that i agree with the shorting of the industrials at this point. >> you have seen ups, they're down 2.5% this week. 3.5% down 11.5% year to date. how is that doing in this market you know what happened in the transports, right? >> once again, we're long term holders here we're going through this period and we're confident that we will come out on the other side with these companies. particularly in the second half. >> that remains to be scene if the economy slows, josh brown, nice to see you, how do you see things today
>> i like the gunlock point today because tom lee has been out on an island and it is a tough place to be. i think maybe it is peeking as well what is the implication for the stock market >> i think gunlock and mr. lee are both correct i think this is obviously it is that plaintiff metric, the worst that we have seen since 1969 so i think when you see that you have to understand prices don't necessarily have to come down. the acceleration on the upside has to top so we're arguing over rate of change it may even be at the same
level. but, inflation is not inflation. we're talking about all sorts of categories that have all sorts of ideosyncrosis and go try to book a trip, i dare you and so if you think about inflation like a nine foot python swallowing a goat, you see it travel down the length of the python we got through the first part about buying things, now we're into the services part, travel, lee sure, hiring what kind?
small business owner opt mission. people's spending plans are being ratcheted down they are unaccuracy tick to think that in many businesses you can have the kind of year that you want to have given prevailing conditions. so i'm not saying -- >> what do i want to avoid >> here is what you want to do and i'm speaking to 95% of people that don't care about corn prices, ask yourself with buckets of money, what buckets of money sub three year money i would buy the snot at a two year treasury paying me 2% yield. sub three year money nun is three to ten years, you have no choice but to accept the volatility of stocks i would skip that hold, that
whole sector conversation. i would not do this cyclicals this week. tech next week i would be very very prodly diversified. we have been in that rotation for months now and very long term money you have to go back to tech and innovation they may not have fallen as much you have to believe the answer is going to be ai, robotics, cloud, software services i would be thinking about shorter term money getting a very good yield for nearly no risk right now first time we could see that in years, and really long term back to innovation, it is that three to ten year period you can own value and cyclicals
and quality. take the higher fluctuations that come with that. learn to live with it. stop playing games, and i think your portfolio will get you exactly where you're trying to go >> the other part of the call which i teased a moment ago is they're upgrade of tech so overweight from underweight. they say it is supported by improving real tiff growth, and payout potential valuation higher rates are a overhang, but the growth cycle should matter more wondering what we think about that to josh's point, right? they upgrade technology. let's talk to gunlock. let's listen to jeffrey. we can talk on the other side. >> the nasdaq is very, very volatile and it is the same type of run
into say september of last year. and it is very, very bad as the nasdaq pushed to new highs, the percentage of companies in the 200 moving day average, it fell, the market was running out of steam last year >> we can expect volatility to continue given the dynamic and the road ahead for the fed, et cetera what do you make of that comment there and the tech today it has gone down a lot, has it gone down enough to make it attractive now >> there are some parts of tech. you know i have been testing my underweight position i'm less ning the underweight if
you will i sold out of several semiconductor companies. i'm worried about double and triple ordering. i should out hpe, and i'm finding other areas in tech that have fallen. they were as much as 20% when i was taking a look at it and i have been adding to that i like the network fire wall business, but i just found that to be pretty much at a bargain price. i'm now overweight apple it's much more defensive they have a capital allocation program that will happen in april. and as i said they can buy back 2% to 3% of their shares for two to three years facebook, meta, it is very contrac contraian. they get reels right it will take some time so i can find places in tech
that i like. now, you want me to go into the new name i bought recently in tech >> leave us hanging no more. >> okay, excenture i always had a hard time with them because they're expensive, but this is best in class in the industry they just beat earnings. they guided higher in terms of total revenue, and they're at the center of enterprise spend, recove i, and the they are benefitting from the outsourcing trail and their customers need them so it is not cheap, but i like what they're doing, i love that their executing consistently and beating and raising. >> tackle this issue of technology for me, right.
>> if you think inflation is peaking, and maybe you don't, personally, but the broader you, if you think inflation is peaking, it doesn't have to be as agraeszive. is technology the place you want to get back to right now >> i never left it is the answer, scott. i don't see an answer why i would leave it warren buffett got deeper into tech, the buildest shareholder of apple, and you know, the signs are all there that this is a sector that you hold on to, not a sector you dutch out of in my opinion it is probably a smart thing to do i have not been very active in that sector, but i own a couple stocks but tech, i have one, actually
two, that i will bring you with unusual activity today >> you wrap it up, what would you do with it today they were down hike a week that's what the leads were to yesterday's shows, right these stocks are getting hit they are going down like the others, now there is a relief rally, what do we do now >> scott, what you want to do is focus on those companies that are profitable we talk a lot about the company that's have high multiblples oro multiples. you want to avoid them in this environment so you want to stay with quality tech. >> okay, we'll take a quick break. stay with us
♪ we're back green across the screen as you see our halftime headliners warned that the fed would be more aggressive than the markets expect does he still think that even with today's better read on core inflation? let's welcome in professor jeremy siegel of the wharton school that's the question. you have been among the loudest people out there inflation, inflation, inflation. the fed will have to be way more aggressive than the market thinks gundlach now says inflation is peaking and others have said it, too. what do you think? >> i think 8.5% year over year, that might be the peak, but i think there's going to be 6%, 7% year over year for a long time by the way, i think stephanie had it at the top of your program in terms of there's a lot of very negative forces for inflation in terms of making inflation worse. you see oil above 100 again and i'm particularly worried natural gas which is almost doubled, and
i'm talking about february 23 gas when it's used for heating has almost doubled and if you take a look at the rental indexes and home ownership indexes they're only up 4% or 5% when we know home prices are up 15, 20% and that's going to get into that index. so technically, will we see something around 8.5% year over year well, maybe not, is it going to be that good if it stays at 6.5 to 7 i do say that the lower than expected core increase and that's what the fed looks at, so that certainly takes out 75 basis points which i think james bullard might have gone for at the may 4th meeting. so it's going to be 50, but i think -- i think we're going to see 6%, 7% for many months to come, and i think the fed has to
continue at least 50 basis point hikes for a number of meetings >> i don't think -- i mean, honestly, i don't think anybody expected, professor, 75 basis points in may. the bottom line, as i hear from you, you are not changing your view on what the fed has to do moving forward and maybe more importantly what it is going to do in any way, you're not changing your view on that? >> i still think that the fed really has to get above 3%, 3.5% if it wants to slow the inflation which i still think is -- >> okay. is moving through the system >> to tell me -- what does it mean for stocks, then? what does it mean for stocks it is that same problem that we've talked about before. by the way, i still think -- as stephanie said, they'll be great this year so the defom nart
continues to get revved up, so what do we see exactly what we have seen. a very choppy market and a rotation which i think will continue towards those stocks that have more near-term cash flows. i'm not ready to say that technology is off to the races, although there are a lot of tech stocks that are selling for very reasonable, with 20 times earnings certainly they're fine, but anything more than that, i still think is going to be disadvantaged in -- in this sort of market. >> okay. so steph, i turn to you first. the professor cited you twice which means you get an a+. you get the first question >> thank you professor siegel, i have a question where you think wagers are going to we know about the jolt number, 11.2 million and we know initial claim, one of the lowest in 1968 and we know the non-farm payroll nones continue to trend in the
right direction, where does this leave us on the wage front and we've seen it increase 5.5% in the non-farm payroll numbers where do you see it going? >> first of all, and it's been mentioned, but along with the inflation report is what's been happening to real wages. we see them down 1%, 2%. i don't think labor will remain so quiescent a lot of them are locked into 3% that's what it had been for ten years. 3%, 4% increase. that's not going to cut it there will be pressure on labor costs, particularly those firms that are hiring from the open market find it already, but those people that have workers that have had for years, they'll be agitating for higher wages which is going to put pressure on to the price structure. i think the market will remain strong a number of openings relative to
those looking for work is at an all-time high so even if the fed does squeeze down demand i really don't see unemployment or claims rising very much from this level. >> professor, can i own cyclical stocks in the kind of environment that you are describing, you expect >> well, there are two aspects of cyclical because there may be a mild recession coming in 2023, and that's certainly what caused the cyclicals to move down a week or two ago. i think it's going to be quite a bit in the future. on the other hand, a lot of those cyclicals are selling to price earnings ratios i find attractive so you have two forces against them can you still own them yeah i think people might be too fearful of a recession if it comes it's going to be quite a few months in the future. >> okay. and i don't think it's going to be severe by any means. >> okay. josh brown, question for the
professor? >> hey, professor, this is not hypothetical this is real life. in the first three months of this year my firm hired nine people from all different parts of the country from senior to entry level. not because we felt like it, but because demand is there. to a degree we can justify starting someone that at $80,000 that would have been $60,000 in 2019 most businesses will say that, we can justify, that the economy is good and this next phase that we're into now the fed rapidly hiking rates to catch up with the market's expectations into a deceleration or slowdown how much longer can we count on small and mid-sized business >> i know big businesses, they have more flexibility. how much longer, though, can we rely on the middle and the small part of -- of american business to keep doing that at a certain point that imbalance has to correct just
through sheer no mas i know there's more business to be done. we can't do it it's no longer profitable. when do you think we hit that point? >> you're certainly right. personally, what wye see on corporate earnings calls to pass on prices and you're talking about large corporations >> small ones. >> right >> and that's what you're talking about and you're saying the new, higher market is so hot that they're seeing 10%, 20% increases and do they have the power of passing it on and by the way, also, if you're particularly energy intensive in your production, you're also going to have a harder time to push those wages on. on the other hand, as you said, try to book travel there's money out there. people want to spend after two years of, you know, semilockdown
or lockdown and as a result, i think they're going to mostly accept the higher prices it will be self-limiting at one point when we see the fed's hikes, lower money supply growth which i monitor very, very closely and then you will begin to see that self-limit, but in this particular time, i still think those pressures are on. >> okay. professor, it's also a pleasure. we'll see you soon. >> absolutely. >> jeremy siegel at the wharton school looking for what he calls a mild recession and maybe in early 2023 yield's moving a little bit lower. stocks are off their highs as well nasdaq's up barely 90 now. that's a pretty decent pullback from where we started the show dow industrials, good for still 100 points and it's still triple digits and maybe we're paring some a little bit. still ahead,on j has unusual activity we'll be back right after this
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we're back right now let's get to steve liesman who has breaking news on the fed are we talking brainard headlines that are moving right now, steve >> yeah. brainard is talking right now at a conference with "the wall street journal." scott, she's making optimistic and i would say guarded comments about the inflation report this morning. several economists and brainard who is the presumptive vice chair nominee for the federal reserve saying that she welcomes the moderation in the core good sector you'll note there was the good sector came down mostly propelled by the decline in used car prices i say guarded because she says there's a lot of potential upside risk to inflation down the road including the invasion of ukraine by russia as well as the china lockdown she said these present upside risks to inflation overall, scott she gives an optimistic ability
of the fed to raise interest rates suggesting there is a lot of strength in the labor market and in the economy she's optimistic about that, but these are, i don't know. guarded comments about inflation. >> she does say that the recovery can be sustained even as we bring inflation down that speaks directly to the question of whether they can engineer the soft landing amid doubts that they can pull that off and another thing i find interesting that she says, too, is that financial krngs she thinks, will bring demand down to more sustainable levels, i.e., tightening policy and tightening financial conditions a bit is going to do the job she hopes and thinks now the question is the proof is going to be in the pudding to when they can pull that all off. >> yeah, and do so without a resessions i think the fed can fight inflation and win, but it sometimes wins ugly with the
large rise of unemployment and/or it ends in a recession. i think what the fed has going for it rid now is the very low unemployment rate and it has 11 million job openings to play with in the sense that they may get rid of job openings and that's the upside, but scott, let's remember, tomorrow we have the producer price index, and that's probably going to show considerable pressure in the pipeline for inflation at the producer level that needs to work its way down into the consumer level at some point or it will be absorbed in lower profit margins so -- and it's not entirely clear to me that we have absorbed all of the price increases that are coming from what's happened in russia and the china lockdown so i still think -- put it this way, i think it would be premature to declare peak inflation right now. >> for sure, even though some are tossing that around, but given where the inflation headlines have been over the last several months we'll take what we've got today and we'll see what tomorrow bring, steve
>> sure. that's the only thing you can do here is everybody wants to be on top of that peak inflation trade or story, but you just can't do it and brainard said you don't want to go too far and she's guarded about the optimistic take. >> steve with lael brainard. >> let's get the latest for kristina partsinevelos >> police converged in a subway station in the sunset park session of brooklyn this morning. they say a man wearing a gas mask threw a smoke grenade inside a moving ten and opened fire ten people were shot and six people were hurt the incident is not being investigated as a terrorist act and the motive is still unknown. the suspect xbelieved to have been acting alone created confusion pulling into the tragz. >> this person is still on the loose and this person is
dangerous. we're asking individuals to be very vigilant and alert. we'll get more reports as the day goes on. this is an active shooter situation right now in the city of new york. boris johnson and his wife kerry johnson are being fined by london police for vile eighting covid lockdown rules mr. johnson's fine is for attending a birthday party thrown for him in the cabinet room almost two years ago. he's the first serving prime minister of the uk to be sanctioned for breaking the law. and all children should be screened for anxiety starting when they're 8 years old that's the draft guidance from a group of independent medical experts. the panel repeated recommendation that children between 8 and 18 be screened for severe depression. tonight on the news, new artificial limbs that allow people to almost experience the sensation. >> look forward to that. thaks, kristina partsinevelos. analyst calls of the day
depand the stock's up 4%. josh, you are an owner of crowdstrike. from 241 that's a sizeable upside >> yeah. i don't -- i don't even think that we're even in the second inning yet of how important cybersecurity and how large the addressable market will become within our lifetimes we spent all of this time talking about a.i., virtual, machine learning, et cetera, et cetera you can't do anything if it's not secure like, literally nothing. last year the colonial pipeline was ransomwared from us. we literally had to pay crypt onto get back a third of this country's energy network, and everyone forgot about it because kim started dating pete davidson, but this is going to happen with increasing regularity and intensity and we better get real smart. crowdstrike is a $50 billion
player in the space. i spent a half an hour last night talking with the ceo they just got a higher level certification to get to work directly with the department of defense. this is something almost no other cybersecurity companies have in addition, they've been signing strategic partnerships with companies like amazon, web services and mandiant. they're serving 15 of the largest 20 financial institutions in america. a huge chunk of the fortune 500, every sector, every geography all over the world and i think they continue to win because they have products i'm a long-term holder of crowd strike and i continue to stay with this name if people have that wake-up call that i was talking about gradually over time and start allocating more to the sector. crowdstrike will get a lot of that market cap and work out very well for long term shareholders like myself >> okay. let's take a look at cisco,
downgraded, steph, to a sell the price gets cut from 45 to 65 what do you make of this because you just trimmed cisco yesterday. pretty timely. >> i did trim it yesterday because as supply chains ease which is probably not until 2023, but when they ease i think they'll be left with a lot more inventory that i will feel comfortable with that said, near-term, i don't see a lot of down side here especially with product orders of 30% plus over the next three quarters they have pretty good visibility it's not like i'm saying they're losing market share. it's not like you can tell they're losing market share given the supply chain issues. i wanted to make it smaller. if it were to pull back substantially from here i would absolutely be buying it back >> okay. we have less than 24 hours to go now until the big banks start reporting earnings and we'll find out how the banks are setting up for that next.
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are getting ready to report tomorrow financ financials have struggled and leslie pick or whether they've been too pessimistic what do you see? >> it's possible, scott. thanks to overall optimism that inflation may be peaking after today's cpi read it's reminiscent of what took place earlier this year when investors piled into bank stocks on the prospect of rate hikes and then mid-quarter sentiment shifted over the concern that the war in ukraine and supply chain issues would cause the fed to hike more than the market anticipated and suddenly bank stocks had fears of a resecessi, and it was overweight 1300 bases points by mid-february and underperformed by 1500 basis points through quarter end higher rates served as a tailwind to banks because they can charge out more for loans boosting their margins for loan
making, but when it became clear a few weeks ago that the fed would have to hike to get this inflation under control, the risk of inflation overshadowed any potential benefits as wells fargo analist mike mayo said on cnbc anything about a better economic outlook than the market market is pricing in could be a catalyst for these stocks to go higher. so definitely negative sentiment heading into the print and we'll see if these earn degrees do enough to catalyze the stocks higher >> we will for sure. degas, cramer was talking about how he likes some of the banks here they've been hated is now the time to get a jump-start >> it depends on the bank that you select for instance, we own morgan stanley and it has a very diversified revenue stream it gets 50% from institutional sales of securities, 40% from
wealth management and 10% from asset management because of the acquisition of the advance and e trade. so this company has a lot of diversification in its revenue so it can do well going forward as it goes to announce these earnings and then when you look at regional banks and huntington bank is one that can do very well also because they have growth in both their loans and it grew by 8% and deposited by 5% and also they're trying to get into municipal and also corporate finance. so the companies that are diversifying revenues have a good opportunity here to do well in this market. >> dr. j, bank of america called, j.p. morgan, wells fargo. you have a lot riding on these. >> yeah, and i think that jamie will deliver i think the other two stocks, wells fargo as well as bank of america will deliver, scott. the issue is for the coming
quarter, are these higher rates that they're going to be charging for consumer loans, commercial loans and so forth. are those going to be destroying demand and i don't know that we're there yet. i think we're still at a point where we're going to see accelerated demand because of people worrying that they go significantly higher in order to tame inflation >> okay. josh brown jpmorgan as well i said it over and over again that it was really the line last time at the beginning of earnings jpmorgan did not report well, and that stock really has not performed since. is this a turn around here or no >> it's a tough quarter for the money at central banks i think you can own some financials, but they're not going to trade as a block. because there are very specific aspects of each of them that will either thrive or suffer in this environment and the money sent throughs are
not the place to be right now. if you're looking for short-term performance, all you need to know the home builders hit a 52-week low yesterday. they're down to today. they're still down 30% year to date the fixed 30-year mortgage hit 5.25%. okay so we're going to have demand destruction in housing which is very important to all of the banks. the only question is how soon does it become apparent? how bad does it get before it subsides we know this we know it semi conductors look terrible. transports look terrible all the classic things that you would look at as indicative of where the economy is headed, so i just don't think that that's the area that you should really be focussed on i like alternative asset management so i'm in carlisle i think cg is a better place to be than any traditional lender yes, it's a financial. no, it has nothing to do with deposit rates. that's the kind of way that i would be thinking in that space
right now, and not obsessing over whether or not citi or j.p. are going to beat by a nickel or whatever i don't think it's going to matter >> a quick bakre and then unusual activity with the doctor is next. hey, did i tell you i bought our car from carvana? yeah, ma. it was so easy. i found the perfect car under budget too! and i get seven days to love it or my money back... i love it! [laughs] we'll drive you happy at carvana.
>> yeah. i own it and it's been really frustrating. it's down 12% on the year. the stock trades on the 737 max and seeing improving deliveries and order which is they are building and the 787 getting that back into production. we don't have clarity on that. they're taking longer than i would have expected. the free cash flow story is the reason i like it i think as they get the planes into delivery mode, free cash flow should improve. and so i'm sticking with it. it's been fru rating i think the one big catalyst i'm waiting for is china recertification of the 737 max that could come any day. i own it i'm in it because it's a reinstruction story. >> we'll come back, you'll see or hear doc, but you'll get unusual@, i promise.
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a couple big interviews at 4:00 cathie wood, and scott minerd will be with us as well. that's a cnbc exclusive. he has a new note out today. you don't want to miss the comments i'll see you in a few hours. john is on the phone with unusual. go ahead >> tesla, the stock trades at about 995. they're buying 6,000 of the next friday explanation 1050 calls. they bought them in two big prints, in other words, 3,000 a piece. that's a big trade
we followed in into that second one snow flake, snow. that expires thursday this week, because friday is a holiday. there's no trading these expire thursday. they're buying the april 2nd, '30 calls there. about 5500 of those changed hands so far today >> good stuff. and while i have you, doc, a final trade, please. >> all right evtl this is vertical lift cars a big pop today and people are betting they're going to keep going higher >> a big pop, indeed, 36 % higher than 40 now stephanie link, what do you have for us >> target, i've been adding to it it's my largest discretionary name best in class retailer seeing double digit comps. they're buying back $10 billion of stock as well >> good stuff. >> yeah. we like stephanie's buy of the center leading digital and cloud, consulting firm with a
free cash flow yield of 7% and growing earnings estimates >> okay. and josh brown >> dutch bros, caffeine is in the session proof and i think when you look at the chart, you can see what i see higher lows. the buyers are stepping in earlier each time. >> thanks, guys. see you in overtime. that does it for us. the exchange is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. here's what's ahead. inflation hitting a 40-year high and the markets seem to think we may have seen the worst of it. is that sentiment premature and will it change anything when it comes to the fed's rate hike plan plus from the streaming wars to the box office battle, we speak with the ceo of paramount pictures the stock is up 20% so far this year can the top gun sequel keep it at a cruising altitude and a read on airlines we have the action, the story, and the trade on three names that report today's earnings
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