tv Squawk Box CNBC April 13, 2022 6:00am-9:00am EDT
the social media company plus, ready or not here comes earnings season. quarterly results this morning from jpmorgan and the delta airports it's wednesday, april 13th 20rks 22, and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen. andrew is off today. yesterday we ended the session down a little bit even though the stockmarket jumped after the slightly higher than expected inflation numbers that we saw. if you looked at the core number, some may think we peaked
on inflation dow futures are indicated up by about 91 points. s&p 500 futures up by 11, the nasdaq up by 53. treasury yields on that cpi numb berry actually dropped you saw the ten-year drop to about 2.7% or just above that after touching a 2.7%. if you check things out this morning you'll see right now wti is up slightly once again, but we're back up of $100. $1 $101.01. take a look at what's happening with crypto. this morning we're hanging in above that at $40,100. what did they say? >> it spent plenty of time below 40, but it's up 1 1/2 percent.
she said a weekly close. i asked how much is art and how much is science. >> there is -- >> 50/50. >> there is something that goes into this. >> 50/50 and then i bet if you did have it below 39 or 38, it's still -- her next objective is 27 even if it was below 38, i don't think she'd immediately say -- >> watching it on a weekly basis, a little more important yesterday we got the consumer price inflation numbers. today we get more inflation numbers. this time it will be the producer price index the headline number is seen rising 1.1%, and this is really interesting with what happened yesterday. it was the core number that was slightly below expectations leading some people to say, okay, maybe the prices of inflation of going into goods have actually peaked, but that is certainly up for debate this morning especially when you look at where oil prices are, where some of the other input costs
are headed for food and other items too. >> yep it's a term now. ice the putin price increases. i heard that they come up with it and then they just keep saying it, saying it, saying it. >> it's true if you look at grains, metals, a lot of the things. >> you can look at when it started it it's way before. >> any time we get our arms around it, something happens russia's invasion of ukraine is a factor. >> the supply chain issues after reopening and the labor issues too started with that. >> we had other people saying, oh, we're going to be getting to the end of the supply chain issues and then this happened with ukraine. >> and more literation one toke over the line no, these guys are fed guys. we're getting fedspeak this morning. jim bullard telling the fchl t.
that the central bank must put the brakes on economic activity to stop the surging prices that's too bad we like economic activity. he tells the paper the fed is behind the curve and needs to get moving last week bullard argued they need to raise it another three percentage points by the end of the year and another is also weighing in on the inflation picture he argued the central bank needs to get to the rates where borrowing costs are no longer stimulating the economy. >> i think it's particularly interesting what you hear from some of these fed presidents because they hear from the constituen constituencies they hear about how they're getting pinched by inflation, and i think that's probably why you tend to see some of the more hawkish voices coming from the areas. we're going to start something called the federal reserve bank of "squawk" where we start
talking to guests who are on main street who are hearing some of these things where they're hearing about it. >> we can combine it i don't know whether you realize it there's tax day coming up, but did you know today is the release of the all-american survey >> i did not. >> oh, yeah. i'm sure most of our viewers realize what april 13th is, and that will be coming. did you see manchin yesterday? he was -- this is bad. the feds have got to raise rates. drill, drill, drill. of course, he's in west virginia we've got to get the energy situation under control and the fed needs to move quickly. it's a place where joe manchin as a senator thinking of constituents would have to think about how it ravages people. >> 100%.
i'm not sure he's hearing it. >> that's what i mean. >> look. i will also say i heard a survey this morning that said 84% of americans are now talking about curtailing their activity and their spending because of inflation because their budgets are getting blown up 84% of americans are feeling the pinch at this point. even if we have peaked at inflation, it's not going to be going down any time soon substantially, so this is something that's here and people are definitely feeling you understand the concern about it the question is whether the fed can even bring inflation down short of a recession that also hurts people. >> it's interesting because we have -- it's been gone for so long the numbers reflect it it was 1981. >> right it's like 40 years of not necessarily deflation or disinflation, but nothing where -- they wouldn't hit their -- >> and where there are -- believe me, i heard from some --
i love some of these millennials. anyway, i heard from some of them yesterday about when i said how it's weird that, you know, this great stockmarket started in 1981. you know, financial, that's long periods of disinflation. nothing wreaks havoc you go back to 1974. 1968 to 1981, the stockmarket was unchanged. this thousand in 1968. by 1981, it was still below a thousand there can be periods where -- i'm not saying asymmetry is not going to be present here. >> i certainly hope not. >> i love the innovation that we see out of silicon valley and all that stuff is very positive for the future of medical advances and all those things. we had 40 years where we didn't see 8 1/2 percent. here we are. i don't know whether that makes a sea change for a long time we've had people say we need to not think about
double digit equity returns every year, and everybody says with dividends, mid- to high single digits is the best you can average out. >> you have down years. >> yeah. we're hopeful we can even do that especially now >> that's what i was going to say. the problem is an inflationary environmental. why would you take money out of stocks where would you put it your options are limited if you get to the point where at some point a treasury bond looks like a good deal. >> that's where it no longer works. if you're going to lose 10%, let's say or even worse, staying in stockmarkets in the summer is not going to be helpful. there are times it could be better depending -- i'm not -- you know people are still optimistic. stocks always go up. jeremy siegel was on yesterday saying near term, maybe i'm not
as bullish. >> long term, that's what you have to do the same thing ron barriss told us all right. let's talk a little bit about corporate new this morning too elon muffing is being sued am group of former twitter shareholders argue that they missed out on the recent run on the stock because musk waited too long to disclose his 9.2% stake. you knew this was coming twitter shares jumped 27% on april 4th, that's the day musk did disclose what he had been doing. it was proposed in a management federal court. he let him buy more twitter shares at lower prices while defrauding them into selling at artificially deflated prices this has been building jay clayton kind of references this he basically said the fec will be looking into this because he originally fired as a passive investor, filed the forms to go
with that and did not require him to diggs close until he built up a much bigger stake if he had filed as the active investor, he would have had to file a 10% stake there was a massive buildup in shares i don't know if he got a mass ir buildup in shares. you knew a class action suit would be coming. >> what would surprise you the most he sharply increased the stake or he's out? >> totally. >> i'm ready for either. i wouldn't thfaint from either one. you couldn't knock me down with a feather from either one. >> when we come back, steve liesman will join us with his latest cnbc all-american survey. we'll see what he thinks with president biden's handling of the economy. right now as we head to break, check out today's biggest premarket winners and losers this is leading by 2%.
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of his -- some of the highlights how often, steve, because i didn't realize it was going to be on april 13th how often? >> it's not on your calendar, joe? every quarter we do this for almost 15 years, maybe more. i have to go back and count. i think it's the 15th year get out the party hats and kazuos and let's have some fun here i will say not fun for the president. cnbc all-american economic survey finding very little going right for the president. his approval rating has fallen sharply. his new tax bill has split the country down the middle. take a look. just 38% over here with just 53% disapproving it's the lowest level of his presidency and down from 41% approving and 53% in december. a year ago, 47, 41 and we did, by the way, an online survey at the beginning of his presidency.
had 62% approval he's failen from places not even on the chart the number of americans have pulled down considering his economy. dropping for a fourth straight survey to 35%. a new question shows his handling of the war in ukraine, the best of all of his findings, but just 40% of the public approving his handling of the war in ukraine comparing numbers to a survey a year ago, the president is losing ground with key groups that helped get him elected. women, age 18 to 49, down 18 points women of color, 18 points. and those who helped him get in the white house, down 15 points. and finally his taxes those of realized gains, not popular. not the political winner the white house envisioned 43% liked the idea
43% oppose it. we can show you the intensity is equal on both sides it democrats favor it republicans hate it with the equal flavor there's a solid green between 60 and 75,000, they'll never pay the tax. they oppose it, nevertheless, joe, by nine the reason is taxing the hellopy polls well this is seen as just a tax and there's no spending attached to it joe? depends on how you ask it too. it's funny the fair minded people, yeah, let's get those guys, but no one -- can you find anyone who say, yeah, 80%. if you make enough, the government should take it.
there's a fair-minded sort of backdrop. >> and there's also an as expirational thing people making 50 to 75,000, they're light years away but maybe in their mind they're going to get there we were having a sort of joke yesterday in our call with our great pollsters. we could have asked this as the billionaire tax, which we didn't do sometimes we cross-sample things we ask the same question two different ways in order to see if it's the name we did that with obamacare versus aca, and obamacare polled worse than aca did, but we didn't ask about the billionaire tax. that might have polled better. >> i do think this idea of taxing unrealized gains has a lot of people looking at it, thinking, wait a second, that's a brand-new way to tax, and all of these taxes that start off on people who are not me and who -- i'm never going to reach that level, eventually wind up coming to other people. i don't like the idea of taxing
unrealized gains because it's complicated. it's not fair. i don't know what happens from year to year if you spend any time digging into the details on it, it's like, you're kidding, right? >> we didn't get a lot of not sures. people seem to understand the question and they certainly did answer it and you can see that there's a certain intensity here on this. 27%. and it's very even across the board. i think the president if he wants this thing to happen has to explain it better, has to kind of attach it to something >> i think he runs into trouble if he explains it better if you explain it better, people are like, wait a second, that sounds like a dumb idea. if you demagogue it up and call it a billionaire's tarks, you probably have more luck with it. >> he's got to attach it to some reason i think taxation without foundation is probably not a good idea. people are like, we'll pay taxes if the government is going to do
something for it i like your idea that people are like not really into this idea of something that's an unrealized gain being taxed. that would be really interesting. remember, our polls show 53ch of the public own stock, so they understand about this or if they do, certainly they own stocks or they have owned stocks, by the way, and we'll talk about this later on in the day. people say it's one of the worst times ever to buy stocks that we've seen and bitcoin ends up sort of rivalling stocks in terms of best investment choices right now. >> the idea of an unrealized tax in a volatile market, too, to think that this is not something that's going to be worth or valued at the same level next week or moth or year,and then if you pay taxes, it loses half its value. that's also kind of crazy. >> they had some giveback and then you start getting into complicated stuff. people right now are doing taxes
and i don't think anybody have happy with the taxes. >> it's due on monday because the 15th falls on good friday. >> good friday, that's right. >> you have until the 18th to pay your taxes, but that's only still a few days away. >> joe, was the all-american survey the way you thought it was going to be? >> it always is. athletes didn't think they were following things closely. >> do you think ratings are going to surge >> you're back in the office, i notice that. >> just today, don't get used to it we thought it would be, you know, a ratings bonanza if i came and did it in front of the wall that was the idea. >> you have legs good to see. >> it's amazing. so we have a couple of extra days to file an extension. >> to file an extension, correct. steve, by the way, congrats on 15 years of this we love the survey i didn't realize it's been -- >> every quarter we've done it we started off with a christmas
poll there was a thing called a great financial crisis that we were -- whoops there we go. >> look at that. and the reason -- the reason i call it -- the reason i call it the all-american economic survey is people could not believe that we were not polling just cnbc viewers. >> or just economists. >> or economists we'd get these notes that would say, we don't care what all your rich friends or viewers think. so this is actually a poll of all of america, national, regional. >> it's a big poll it's not a small sampling. >> they're playing us out. >> all right we'll see you in a little bit. i'm looking forward to what people are thinking about the stockmarket. >> we'll see you in a little bit. >> yes, we will see you in a little bit. when we come back, u.s. investor and well known putin critic, he'll take a look at the war in ukraine and what he
thinks the world needs to know about it the oil prices are up, 1.26% and brent crude, 1.5%. brent cruet is at 106.20 ayunst ted you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc develop their passion for learning through our grow up great initiative. and now, we're providing billions of dollars for affordable home lending programs... as part of 88 billion to support underserved communities... including loans for small businesses in low and moderate income areas. so everyone has a chance to move forward financially. pnc bank: see how we can make a difference for you.
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it would be interesting to hear what larry fink is thinking right now about the markets, just given everything that's happening, how global the situation is again t stock up by $2.17. in the meantime high energy prices mean russian coffers continue to be replenished, but how long can vladimir putin and the russian economy withstand international sanctions? joining us right now is bill browder. he's the ceo and co-founder of hermitage management until 2005 he was the largest portfolio investor in russia he has a new story out called "freezing order," surviving putin's wrath. we've known you for a long time and we know the story. maybe not all viewers know it. hermitage capital was the largest foreign investor in
russia up until about 2005 and then things looked very different. your lawyer was murdered in 2009, and you spent time tracking down, following the money, and what did you find leading back to that murder? >> well, so he was murdered for uncovering a $230 million government corruption scheme we traced the $230 million and we found that money going all over the world including and up to vladimir putin. and it's been my mission for the last 12 years sergei was murdered to g after the people up to including putin to make sure they faced justice, and in 2012 a piece of legislation was passed called the mad it in ski act which freezes the assets of human rights leaders who killed sergei and elsewhere that legislation now exists in 34 countries vladimir putin really doesn't like that legislation.
he made it the single largest foreign policy to repeal that legislation. for him that is the template being used to freeze all of his assets and the assets of his oligarch cronies in many countries around the world. >> bill, i'm amazed at how you've followed up on this yo you've been chased by thugs, chased in aspen. honestly, i'm surprised you're still alive. why don't you tell us what's happened along the way. >> as you can imagine, vladimir putin is a very angry man. he's angry at me because his money is at risk in addition to making it his policy to repeal the mat it in ski act, he's come at me in all
sorts of different ways. i've been threatened with death, with kidnapping, the kremlin has asked for help from the interpol i live in london they tried to extradite me they've been chasing me around the streets of new york and aspen and madrid and geneva and all sorts of other places. it's been a terrifying 12 years, but one of the reasons that i am still alive is because on one hand vladimir putin wants me dead, but on the other hand, he still had one foot in a civilized world. he was trying to go to the g20 conference and all that stuff. unnorth latly since february 24th, he's put both of his feet in the criminal world and so my level of risk has increased expo phen chally. >> what do you think of the sanctions that have been put in place on vladimir putin and the oligarchs at this point? >> i would say they're pretty great. i think the sanctions are stronger than i could have ever
imagined the u.s. and europe a sinking putin and russia having said that, there are more places where sanctions need to be imposed in my opinion, the oligarchs are the trustees for vladimir putin. they're the ones that hold his money some of far we've only sanctioned 20 oligarchs. we should be increasing that sanctions list as you mentioned in the intro, the one big elephant in the room, while we've been sanctioning them, every single day t west, particularly europe, is tending vladimir putin $1 billion in the form of dollars for oil and gas. the war in ukraine costs a billion dollars a day and the payments the west pays is $1 billion a day.
he's kind of breaking even if you will on this whole operation because we keep sending him money to kill ukrainians that's got to stop. >> speaking of that, bill, looking at what's happening in france and the two candidates and looking at how pro-putin is versus the other, in researching it, there's a thought that there's not much difference really between the two what's in it for france? i think i saw macron can't quit you. has that changed is that no longer going to be the case where both candidates will now say, okay, enough, i'm not going to coddle this guy or is it somehow in the economic interest of france not to distance its too much from what
a post ukraine war looks like. >> i've always been amazed by macron before he was elected president last time a week before putin hacked his emails and released them, trying to change the you come of the election, somehow he was able to overcome that. but macron should be really an grip with him. as you say, he was really pretty week as far as putin was concerned. le pen is a whole other story. the national fascist in france, she received openly 10 million euros of money from a russian bank to fund her campaign. we were all doing investigations into collusion here in the united states. well, you can't catch more collusion than that when taking 10 million euros and it's a pretty scary proposition
inflation is raging and she may end up getting elected if she does, there's no question she supported putin. there's no question she took money from putin and i think it would be -- putin would be laughing if that were to come to be. >> thank you for your time this is something you have been following. the new book, again, is called freezing order, a true story of money laundering, murder, and surviving vladimir putin's wrath. it's out this week, and we appreciate your time it's good to see you. >> thank you delta air lines releasing quarterly results. phil lebeau joins us with those. hey, phil. >> a smaller than expected lot of 1.23. the street was expecting a loss of 1.27. revenue much better than
expected $9.35 billion. that's more than a billion above the estimate march, this is significant this was the first month where delta's unit revenues for a month outpaced or were better than what they were before the pandemic we have not seen that since the pandemic began free cash flow of $197 million in the first quarter the outlook is what people are going to be focused on the company expect as q2 profit with strong free cash flow in the second quarter it expects double digit representative knew growth in the second quarter in short, they're finding the demand that is out there they can change higher fares that's outpacing the previews in jet few. lots to discuss with ceo it bastian. we'll be talking with him on a very important day as we kick off the earnings season and the focus really is the demand that's out there and the
willingness to people to, a,no only get out and go travel, but to pay higher fares. there's a lot of information on that and we'll talk with ed bastian about that and there's the new pew plane we'll have a lot to discuss. streaming war, cnn plus launching with a disappointing opening. we're going to break it downor f you and what it means for investors when "squawk box" comes right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable, and secure our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers
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whelcome back to "squawk box. stocks popped high eric and so did treasury prices, not yields, after we saw the consumer price index numbers that were hotter than expected on the top line number, a little weaker than expected on the core number this morning you have green arrows across the board the nasdaq up by 89. in less than two hours we have more inflation this. time it will be the producer prices by the way, take a look at some of this morning's biggest dow movers you're going to see at this point leading the way higher you've got boeing up 1.8%. microsoft up 2%. chevron up that's because oil prices are up
launched late last month wait, really i'll be darned to a disappointing opening it's reported to have fewer than 10,000 active daily users, which could mean big cuts are on the way. cnn was part of the merger of discovery and warnermedia and is also getting a new boss, chris licht, starting on may 1st joining us now is sara fischer, axios media reporter schadenfreude is such an ugly, ugly word, sara, and i would never engage in it, and i also saw some of the numbers they're excelling, they got from mckinsey that was their first mistake you know who a consultant is, a guy from out of town who doesn't have a job what happened? who thought there would be
millions right out of the box instead of, are you surprised, 10,000 10,000 >> i'm not surprised it's that low, joe, because they made a classic hiccup they weren't available on roku at launch. they know why that's a problem their sister company hbomax was also not on roku they finally closed that deal on monday so maybe the numbers will get a little bit better, but to your point, joe, i think a lot of people after axios reported yesterday that cnn was expecting 2 million people to pay in the first year, 15 to 18 million within four years, i think a lot of people were surprised by those projections. mainly that's because if you look at the other competitive news subscriptions in the market, take a look at the new york times who i been trying to crack the code for years in "new york times" has 10 million subscribers right now.
for cnn to think they would be able to close that gap at 18 million in four years, that seems absolutely high. i would expect cuts at cnn as a result of this sort of scattered rollout. >> i look at -- you look at disney and the start disney plus had. amazing. even peacock, pretty good. millions it started with an m at least. >> the difference is peacock was ad supported what they're trying to do with cnn is get people to pay -- >> even the paying numbers for peacock are a multiple of what you're seeing. what's with the hook what is it going to give me?
maybe it's going to cover breaking news. >> it can't be the exact same programming that they do on their linear tv channel, which, by the way, they lean really heavily on the international live breaking news coverage. what the plus level circumstance it's softer. they have a food show, a travel show i think the problem, joe, is that people just don't know if that's worth paying for as a standalone if i had a guess, i think discovery will take elements of it and fold some of the programming into max, which they do plan to bundle with plus. to keep it a standalone as a part of the bundle, that seemed unusual to me. disney has a bundle of adult programming in hulu, family programming with disney plus and sports with espn plus.
they don't have abc news bundled in there because i don't know if there's enough demand for people to pay it separate as a standalone service for news. >> when you say key lar say, it's performing better than expectations, it's definitely not performing to expectations anybody looking at this would say, whoa, there's a real issue here about the viability of a standalone, whether it should have been launched before the merger, whether what zaslav -- david looks at this, he doesn't own it it's not his baby. whatever needs to be done, he will do without thinking twice, wouldn't you imagine >> no question, no question. they were originally expecting to spend about a billion dollars over the course of four years. i don't think that's going to be
their reality at all i think their budgets will be cut pretty significantly but to your point on how this sort of meshes and jives with what their expectations were versus reality if you talk to people inside warnermedia, i think they think the product rollout was pretty smooth the actual product itself is not -- it's pretty themeless the challenge was the distribution and in my opinion the marketing. they spent so many millions of dollars. as soon as you get out of the subway in new york city, times square, it's everywhere. the other challenge, joe, was the name they call this thing cnn plus, which, by the way, when you're a consumer and you think about a plus service, you think that's a standalone app it's not a standalone app. it's something you buy through cnn. that was confusing too i think when they say this performed better than their expectations, i think it's because the tech itself is pretty good, but the challenge is the distribution is
absolutely not there. >> yeah. let's say trump runs again that would be a boost. without trump, they're at a loss they've been lost. >> agreed. cnn totally rode the trump wave. that was adifferentiator for them i'd like to see what that means for them if trump runs, i assume he'll announce after the 2022 midterms testimony problem, joe, do they have that much time? is zaslav going to let them ride it therough? i don't know if that will help, if they'll get that. >> in the old days, it would have helped. >> it's helping them on the linear for sure.
but the ukraine war, it's really waned in the u.s the first week, february 24th after that invasion, huge gains across the board for news as well as cnn and their live programming, but this war is not going to be able to continue to drive the kind of interests they're going to need to be able to save product. >> all right, sarah, keep us updated. we don't have any official numbers. do they ever have to release any official number? >> dnds on what the fate of the service is alex sherman had a great report on cnbc yesterday. obviously that's a small portion of the people who have had to pay so do a multiple of that if you do, joe, you're still looking at dozens of thousands, maybe 100,000. it's not an absolutely gigantic number, and so i think the problem is in order for them to prove to discovery that say deserve to stand as a stand alone they're going to have to get those numbers up
we'll see what the roku deal does, but remember still not available on android tv, still not available on doing tv. we'll see if they're able to broker those relationships as well we've got jp morgan down >> if you're looking at the top line number revenue on a manage base was a little better than expected 31.59 vs. s $35.85 billion that the street was looking for more on the details on this coming up in a bit, but jp morgan down by about 1.3%. "squawk box" will be right back. . you can't be in two places at once, let posh answer. posh virtual receptionists.
high tower and also a cnbc contributor. let me run through it very quickly for people who missed it they came in with a miss on the bottom line 263 versus 269 they beat on the top line. $39.5 billion versus the $38.5 billion the streets were expecting. there are some comments out from jami jamie dimon he said first of all he's pretty optimistic in the short-term and he does say he sees significant geopolitical economic challenges ahead because of inflation, the supply chain issues and the ukraine war. and i guess you have to figure out which side of the ledger are you taking on this you have the federal reserve raising rates but also have the threat of a recession coming, so where do you come down on this, what do you think? >> yeah, look, this stock has really massively underperformed since last quarter
remember last quarter they actually increased their expense guidance for 2022 by 9%. and that really made people more nervous and more cautious on the name i expected a mixed quarter i suspect guidance will go higher because of higher rates and credit card data i expect to be very strong haven't gotten all the details yet but that's the positive side the offset would be the volatility that we have seen in the market will hit m & a fees and debt in the capital market with the stock down and trading at 1.5 times book which is really rare for jp morgan. this stock has traded north of two times book for years i kind of think the expect eggs were set low they have annan update on o get
expenses and their common tangible equity goals which we know is about 17%. >> i'll tell you a couple of things reading through the headlines on this. jp morgan profit down 42er% on a slow down in deals in trading. net interest income for the first quarter $14 billion. >> that's right. honestly, here you go you have m&a fees getting ahead it's the companies, the banks that have more exposure on the net income side. where 50 basis points in a fed funds increase will equate to about 16% to earnings. so wells and bank of america have more exposure on the rate side versus a jp morgan d >> really quickly do you buy here or wait to hear what
happens in may >> let's wait. >> stephanie, thank you very much when we return, delta ceo ed bastion will join us on the latest quarter and much more "squawk box" will be right back. . when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.
good morning, everybody. the futures pointing to a higher open on wall street. we are counting down to more brand new inflation data that is coming in an hour and a half in the meantime earnings season begins plus we have an exclusive interview with delta ceo ed bastian. the skd hour of "squawk box" begins right now >> good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. delta airlines ceo ed bastian
will join us on first quarter results. we saw earlier we're going to talk inflation, meanwhile with former vice fed chair roger ferguson and covid and what's happening in china with dr. scott gottlieb. but first u.s. equity futures at this hour have added to premarket gains up 167 points after failing to hold some of the gains yesterday after the cpi number either people had positioned for a worse number or there was a buy on the news after maybe being weak on the rumor. we knew it was going to be bad it was initially traded higher but the dow closed a bit lower trashy yield fell yesterday after the cpi and bouncing back a little this morning but not too much 2.7, 2.3
>> leslie picker skbroinz us now with more on the numbers good morning >> hey, good morning, becky. that's right jp morgan shares were down a little bit more. reported 39.59 billion on a managed revenue basis. that was compared to estimates of $30.86 billion. net income was down signif significantly for the quarter. net income came in about $8.3 billion for the quarter one of the big question marks investors had about jp morgan and banks in particular this quarter was what their exposure to russia was and how each bank faired during the quarter on that front this pops up in their market and securities business with investment banking they talked about how there was a significant exposure in
commodity, receivable from russia's counter parties that resulted in about a 13% increase in eps we can read between the lines here and assume they're talking at least in part because of that nickel exposure on this show related to a counter party with one of the chinese nickel producers caught on the wrong side of the nickel squeeze during the quarter also credit adjustments represented a loss of about half a billion dollars driven by funding spread widening as well as credit valuation adjustments resulting from both increases in commodities exposures and those derivatives from russia associated counter parties i know you gave some of the color from dimon in the release how he talked about how they remain optimistic at least in the short-term and i think that short-term is something people dig into later on that call today with regard to consumer and balance sheets as well as consumer spending
they believe at this point in time it remains at healthy levels, but they do see significant challenges germe dimon and ceo chairman on the political front and due to high inflation, the supply chain issues and the war in ukraine. still digging through this release a bit more but wanted to share those details especially what's going on with market and their securities and derivative exposure >> i would say the focus on jamie dimon's comments is important, too more often than not over the years he's been optimistic on things when you hear him talking about being optimistic in the short-term but looking at all these bigger issues going to pose risks for the economy, that's significant he's not somebody who gets his head turned easily by headlines in the newspapers, but he knows these are some big issues. for him to highlight it, it actually matters and this goes into the debate
what the fed should be doing, how aggressively they should be raising rates without sending the entire economy into a recession. >> that's right. it's his comments. if he thinks the economy is doing well, he's going to tell you. if he thinks there's issues on the horizon he's going to tell you that, too. it's also about what they're doing. you've got a net credit reserve build of 2$209 billion during th quarter and that compares to the release the prior year it's a combination of what his words say, what the color is he provides about the state of the economy and also what they're doing about it >> that's a great point because jamie dimon is a great risk masker he understands what to do when, and a lot of times when people are running around saying things are awful, if you watch him lowering some of those reserves you think okay he knows what's
happening here and he does not get easily distracted by things out there in the headline, things headlines people are saying he's got a great sense of what's happening. that will be interesting to hear from the call. that stock down. thank you very much. we want to hear more tell us what happens on the call >> i made a call yesterday got some information i'm okay for the moment. >> becky may need to talk to you, diane mortgage rates moving higher diana oolek joins us with the latest >> now the mortgage bankers administration is lowering its forecast for 2022 originations first the weekly numbers the average rate with conforming
balance has increased to 5.13% last week from 4.90 for loans with 20% down. that is 186 basis points higher than where it was just a year ago. back then it was at 3.27%. as a result refinance demand fell another 5% for the week and was 62% lower than the same week one year ago applications for a mortgage to buy a home did squeeze out a 1% gain from the week but still down 6% from a year ago. interesting to note, though, a big jump in applications for adjustable rate mortgages from home buyers. they of course carry a lower interest rate and they made up over 7% of applications and that's the highest level since the summer of 2019 now to the mba forecast. the mba is now forecasting mortgage originations to total 2.58 trillion in 2022, down from
a previous forecast of 2.16 trillion. purchase originations are still forecasted to increase to a record 1.72 trillion this year, but down from a previous forecast of 1.77 reifies expected to fall 6%. not so nice numbers, joe or becky. >> mortgage prices are rising quickly. i'm in the market for one. i called yesterday and i still got a rate of 4.3% which made me start thinking about things, it's not bad, it's below what the avr is but thinking about when about the fed is doing right now and raising these rates and going after it, i can get 4.3% because i don't need the mortgage this is going to impact the people who need it the most. you're going to be talking about inequality coming back in a big way in this country because if you don't need a loan you can
get it, and you can get a good rate on it if you really need it and you don't have the money, you're a first time buyer, struggling to get by, you're going to get hit the hardest and that's the unfortunate situation of the fed raising rates and tightening liquidity, all this impact it's going to have are hitting the lowest levels -- not even the lowest levels. it's going to be hitting the lowest half of the country, more than that, and that is where you're going to see inequality come back, and it is going to get ugly that's what we're talking about right now. that is incredibly unfortunate it's because these fed has these blunt tools. they can't do it in a better way. the only they they can do is slam on the brakes, and when you slam on the brakes the people who get hurt the most are the people who don't have the cushion. and that is distressing. diane, i'm sorry
>> yeah, look, and i think we saw that when you look at the adjustable rate mortgages, that is loans riskier but carry a lower rate, it's a bit of a sign of desperation but also see a drop in fha loans when we give you these numbers every week they're an average rate and someone like you has a great credit score, doesn't need the mortgage, you're going to get a much better rate when we talk about 5.14 or 5.3% first time buyers, people with lower credit scores they're up at 6%, even 7 because they're not able to get those loans. and that's the important thing when we throw out these averages you're going to see a lot more people on the edge struggling and again i think it's interesting we see that pop in adjustable rate mortgages because people can get those rates on the loans >> that's what i said to joe when you said that number. the rising adjustable rate mortgages, who in their right
mind is signing up for that in an environment you can -- >> remember you can get a fixed adjustable, so you can get a ten-year adjustable rate those are fixed for a term,o cites not like the floating rates we were seeing back in the old days when they were all over the place and super risky with no down payment, but, again, they can adjust up >> it is distressing i realize we're still looking at historically low numbers but when you start thinking about 6% whereby 7% people looking to get out of these higher rents, want to get into a home, you worry about what this means for those people diana, thank you when we come back, delta kicking off airline results this quarter. phil lebeau is standing by in the company's hometown of atlanta. he'll bring us a special interview in just a few minutes. phil, what should we expect?
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welcome back to "squawk box. futures right now, dow has moved from under $100 to over $100 and now over 100 almost over 200 could be the next tick, 199 and change right now on the dow, s&p indicated up just under 30, and the nasdaq up right now about 122 points or so >> delta airlines reporting first quarter results with a smaller than expected loss and a beat on the top line shares are surging on this, up by about 6.5%. phil lebeau joins us with a special guest. hi, phil >> hi, becky and the reason delta shares are higher largely because of the outlook for the second quarter let's bring in ed bastian. we'll talk about this in just a little bit coming off q1 what's your assessment of the market right now and the demand that is out there? >> the demand is phenomenal. we've never seen in our
company's history demand for our product and services at the level we are in the month of march we had the highest sales in terms of bookings of any month in our history, period. >> highest ever, not just going back to the start of the pandemic >> highest ever and this is continuing in april. our people are out there doing their best to serve the surge in demand, but people are ready to go and are traveling >> as you ramp up how much of a headwind, if you will, is the ability to add staff so that you can add as many flights, as many crews as you need especially as we head into the summer schedule >> right now we're only operating about 85% of our schedule, and we expect that through the first part of the summer into the second quarter only about 85% partly because international restrictions are limiting what we can fly international domestically we're about 90% we've been getting out ahead of the staffing issue since
basically last year. as a result of that our team is ready to serve we're well staffed for the summer and bring the rest of the capacity back in a disciplined manner as we get the pilots trained and new pilots into the states it'll be a gradual return maybe by the end of the year we can get back to 100% but with the amount of demand we have we're sitting in a pretty good spot on staffing >> you've raised your fares dramatically as demand has returned you've got to offset what you're seeing with jet fuel have you been surprised how much you've been able to raise them, not you're trying to get more from the consumer. yet the demand is still there. you haven't seen the push back of people saying, whoa, too far? >> they've been raised
dramatically compared to last year but those were when the pandemic was pressed you really have to go back to 2019 and, yes, fares are up relative to 2019 but not necessarily as dramatic. >> we're coming up on the one-year deadline for the mask mandates we haven't heard yet from the cdc, the tsa, the white house. if it's extended again which some people are expecting, do the consumers -- do your customers look at this and say i'd rather not have it but it is what it is and i will just kind of gut it out? >> we don't have -- we've expressed our opinion. i feel very strongly the mask mandate should be lifted, that individuals including our own employees make their own decisions and take personal accountability for their health onboard our planes the air onboard our planes is the cleanest air you'll find
anywhere and candidly it's time to see the mask go. i don't know what's going to happen but i hope they will. >> you've got a question for ed? >> i do. i admire ed because they ask you whether you want this job and you said, yeah, i'll do it and it's such a hard business to try to run to satisfy customers and keep things on time. just i think i'd have a permanent migraine, ed but here's kind of a theoretical question so you've got taxpayers bailed out the airlines we've heard this a lot you know, you beg for a help basically positing you're an essential industry so do you feel at this point you owe taxpayers more than you owe shareholders
in other words, are you willing to continue to run on profitable flights, whatever you want to use to illustrate whether you're doing a public service or utility for everyone in the country versus trying to satisfy shareholders are you still going to run this airline to try to satisfy shareholders and profits and add shareholder value, or do you feel you owe taxpayersfor coming to your assistance at one point? >> i assume andrew put you up to that question, joe >> no, i'm just -- go ahead. i understand how businesses work, and i understand -- to me i don't even understand the question, but, yeah, i asked it. >> yeah. so we run our businesses for all
our constituents, our owners, our employees, our customers, all the stakeholders in our franchise. and while it has been two years ago classified as a bail out, can't believe it wasn't a bail out because the money provided to the airlines were there to hold employees in place for the period of time it took for the vaccines to show up and people to start traveling again so the airlines actually did not receive any significant amount of wind fall back through the taxpayers so we greatly appreciate the support had we not received that support we would have been forced to layoff tens of thousands of people and we'd be in a position today not having the air service this country needs. >> that's the weird thing about stakeholders, ed, sometimes the interest of different stakeholders are mutually exclusive so you have to make choices at some point. >> our principle stakeholder other than our employees are our customers.
and our customers are darn glad we're back in business we're having historic levels on our product not just within delta but in the airline industry and as a result of that they're getting to where they need to go people have been cooped up for the last two years while i know there's concern and questions about consumer health and what's going to happen to demand down the road and inflationary pressures, this is a category that's been prioritized by consumers, and they want to spend in terms of getting back to where they haven't seen people. they're done investing in their homes and gardens and want to go see someone else's garden for a change >> count me in that group and i'm going to be in a plane later this week. we've been having this conversation at squawk for two years now. one thing andrew brought up the other day and we were having more discussions off air about it is the idea of flights being canceled last minute, and that is incredibly disruptive it happens in the industry
sometimes because of weather, sometimes because of somebody being gone there have been questions because we've seen it happening a lot more lately it seems like at least from the headlines if it's because of poor staffing or not having the staffing match up with the schedules that have been put out there, so i would ask because this is something we were trying to figure out the other day. what are the casualilation rates for flights versus what they were pre-pandemic? >> well, for 2021, becky, at delta i can speak to our company, our cancellation rates were substantially lower in '21 than they were in 2019 or any years -- >> that is good to know. it's empirical data we were searching for. >> over the course of the last month we've sewn a pretty big tick up across the industry, again, as the demand has come back in such a full throttled way. remember we started the quarter still in the throes of the pandemic with omicron.
and the light switch went off on president's day and now everybody is traveling it's put a lot of stress on the system for everybody not just our airline but all airlines and we're staffed to handle that we had some pretty bad weather in the month of march, and by the way it's not just the staffing at the airlines but staffing with traffic control and with your partners so we're ready for the summer demand we've hired 15,000 people as i said since the start of last year and we're ready to bring them back to the experiences they enjoy >> thank you, ed >> ed, let me ask you about as you look at the second quarter you guys are forecasting double digit revenue growth, profitable quarter, strong free cash flow, and i think that's one reason the stock is up today because number of analysts were expecting you guys revenue growth to be in the lowsingle digits how much of this is being driven by people booking tickets now even if they're not applying for
business are saying i want t pay up to be in the premium cabin as opposed to the main cabin? >> we've seen the strength of our cabin carry us through the pandemic it isn't where it used to be and improving pretty significantly we closed march with our domestic business trouble back to 70% a sold bisz and a lot of people that are flying are business travelers not traveling on business but traveling for personal reasons for leisure, they're sitting in the premium cabins, and as business comes back and people come pack and people have a lot more flexibility i think premium is going to continue to lead us through. delta we've been after premium for the last ten years this yield which is right behind us, one third of the seats onboard that plane are premium seats for customers because that's where the growth of the business is going. >> quickly i have to ask you about jet blue and spirit. i don't expect you to comment on their bid for spirit, but are we perhaps at the beginning of
final end period of consolidation within the industry is there's not much that can happen still here in north america, and as a competitor with jet blue and the northeast alliance and what you're dealing with then there because you have such a strong presence in new york what are your thoughts in what we're seeing right now >> and can't comment on their plans. we love competition in our business and i know with delta it makes us stronger. whatever decided we'll compete against it >> ed bastian, ceo of delta airlines guys, this is the first one, goes into the fleet in june. this is key to their revenue growth as he mentioned that the main cabin versus the premium cabin. this is going to be a big part of their growth plans in the future guys, we'll send it back to you. >> all right, phil, thanks from one ceo to another don't miss another big interview tomorrow right here on squawk.
andy jassy, the ceo of amazon will join us coming up how is the fed going to react to the latest inflation number we've got cpi yesterday and producer price index is up next. in just a few minutes we're going to speak with roger ferguson first, though, as we head to break it's time for today's aflac trivia question. today in 1997 tiger woods won the masters tournament for the first time how large was the total purse that year? what do we mean for the whole tournament or for tiger sph. >> just for tiger. it was just $2 million for this one, just over 2 million >> 2.7 >> was it 2.7? >> maybe the total purse the winner got 2.7 i don't know we'll get the answer pre-pain sh. aflac! ohhh, mark is about to become a living piñata. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac? [whimpers]
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a condition which makes it about five times more likely to have a stroke. if you have one or more of these symptoms irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue or lightheadedness, contact your doctor. this is no time to wait. here's the answer to today's aflac trivia question. how large was the purse for the masters when tiger won it for the first time, the same as what
the winner got this year $2.7 million, and the winner got less than a half million dollars, something like 486,000 back in 1987 this year's purse was $15 million. i'm a little -- i'm worried about tiger now. i didn't realize he's 46 he had a cup of setbacks and the weird setback with the golf club and the suv and all that i mean, he had some -- >> yeah. >> now i'm wondering about when scheffler guy. that guy looked like -- >> he's only 25. >> he's only 25 and it's not a bad swing i don't think. >> it's not a one off. this is what he's been doing >> 46 days and wins four tournaments or something and he was like that as a junior
golfer bed bath & beyond out with its fourth quarter results >> this is a pretty disappointing quarter to say the least. bed bath & beyond posting a loss of 92 cents per share. revenue coming in light at 2.5 billion. and comparable sales fell. the supply chain, the omicron variant and geopolitical turbulence weighed on consumer confidence and, quote, have uncovered more vulnerabilities than we could havefore seen at this stage in our transformation i spoke with trenton who said this quarter had 40% because it was tracked up stream and its rework of the systems weren't ready yet to cope with all these current issues trenton still does think his transformation strategy is the right one and says, quote, it's
just delayed at the moment not derailed in total. however, 40% of analysts that cover the name have a sell or equivalent rating. only 10% are bullish shares are down 30% in a year. last month the shares did rally when gamestop chairman and retail investor took a 9.8% stake in the company, got three board seats added in just several weeks, too, but bank of america seds the stock was artificially propped up by cohen's comments by 25% in a month. bank of america estimates probably closer to $500 million. trenton told me there's no guarantee buy-buy baby will be spun out >> i would say something we try to figure out.
maybe sell some beds bed bath and beyond. hey, i'm here for a bed. what section are those, we don't have those >> they don't sell baths either. >> i haven't taken a bath in a hundred years it seems like. i showered -- i showered up next, have we finally reached peak inflation after that 8.5% surge we heard about yesterday we're going tosk a former fed vice chair -- >> you stink these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done.
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welcome back, everybody. the question after the latest inflation data is have we hit the peak of this cycle economists say the worst may be over we had that new government number that showed consumer prices jump 8.5% in march versus a year ago our next guest says that cements a 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting joining us now is the federal chairman of the federal reserve and also a distinguished fellow
on the council of foreign relations and a former ceo of tiaa and a former cribber. 50 basis points this time around no one has questioned that and the question is then what? what happens because you want to get ahold of this hot inflation but you want to try and do it carefully without sending the economy crashing, and that is a much narrower needle to try and thread these days. >> first, becky, thank you very much for having me on. i agree with you on the challenge the fed faces. so 50 basis points i think fully baked in expected. i actually expect them to be a little more aggressive up front maybe to handle the issue you're talking about. you know, inflation came in at the headline number very hot yesterday. what's called core inflation taking out energy and things were still hot but not quite as much people had feared and so that might give them a
little room, but i think the way they're going to handle this is to see these numbers and attempt to catch up as quickly as they can by doing the market now expects i think two 50 basis points i think that wouldn't be a surprise and perhaps where they are and become more data dependent after the next couple of meetings. >> roger, where do you lean on this you think the risk is that they do too much or too little? >> i think the risk, frankly, is that they do too much because they are a little bit behind the curve. i think they recognize that. there are certainly voices that say if they aren't aggressive they risk losing, you know, credibility. if one looks at market indications of inflation expectations they're certainly above the 2% goal, that is the fed's long-term target so i think if one thought about where the risks are, the risks may be
being a little too aggressive. that is one of the reasons i said to you a few times that risk of recession has certainly gone up, so i think the way they handled that, by the way, is to perhaps after being a little aggressive early maybe take a pause at one meeting just to see how the data are coming in and also a really strong sense of sort of the geopolitical questions that have been driving this inflation plus the supply chain issue. so watching those to see if they start to loosen up a little bit which i think would give the fed a everyone a lot of relief on the inflation front. >> and roger, i guess just the position we're in right now had me thinking a little differently about the fed in terms of the tool that the fed uses to control inflation really is not -- is not great for the overall economy. it always seems to involve
trying to hamper economic growth, which is sort of not -- not something that you would think central bankers would ever want to do since we want to maximize growth for everyone in the country. so i'm just wondering whether the dual mandate in and of itself is just a flawed way to try and do things. and maybe the fed has just gotten too involved with -- and people have made this point, judy shelten and others, that the financialization of the entire economy makes it hard for price discovery and trying to do too many things. maybe dollar stability and current stability should be all the fed really worries about and then use private sector solutions to unemployment and things like that >> i disagree with you on that i think the dual mandate has helped to keep the fed very, very balanced so that at the
right moments it focuses on the medicine the economy needs sometimes. monetary policy tends to recently thought to have moved more quickly than fiscal policy, and frankly i get the fed speaking very healthy marks. remember the goal is long-term maximum sustainable growth, and i think that is perfectly reasonable long-term goal. having said that, we also know fiscal policy can play a role to come in late and probably not be as well calibrated so i think i like the goals that the fed has, the challenge for the fed is when you're confronting supply shocks of the type we've had now and we've seen that in the past, oil shocks, geopolitical shocks, this new one supply chain shocks, that creates much more
challenging circumstance because you get inflation -- >> i know we've got to go but as long as the fed is willing to print then the governor has no government on it for as long as it's willing to spend. >> that was actually going to be my point what is the impact of fiscal policy -- the impact of this policy, the monetary policy going to be on fiscal policy, too, because as the ten-year goes up it increases our borrowing costs. >> it absolutely cannot weigh them in. there's no way that the fed can allow the increasing borrowing costs of the u.s. government to stand in the way of doing what is the right thing to do over the long run -- >> i'm wondering if higher interest rates will slow the fiscal policy. i'm wondering if they'll look at it and say -- the idea is you wanted to parao money when borrowing was cheap. will higher interest rates in
turn have an impact or do do they not care because it's monopoly money to them >> i think it's dangerous to say no one cares at the end of the day the fiscal house will decide and what we'll find and as the market will demand the interest rates for that what's been interesting as we had these conversations still the u.s. is a reserve currency and still generally speaking the options are quite well a little softer but generally speaking there's no sign that the various creditors for the u.s. government are concerned, and there's no sign that the u.s. government has an inability to fund its debt. now, i think over time what we're talking about is trying to manage the economy so we have less in the way of deficits, that we have more savings, so we have higher productivity i think that is a very, very different story longer-term goal, but for the short and immediate term the fed has got to focus on its mandates and
make this stage the biggest challenge is getting inflation under control and trying to engineer that elusive thing called a soft landing. >> roger, thank you. we'll see you soon >> thank you both. take care. when we come back former fda commissioner dr. scott gottlieb will join us on china's evolving fight against coronavirus. "squawk box" will be right back. [music: “you can get it if you really want” by jimmy cliff]
variants to know about manages make agcome back in a big u.s. city, and china dealing with its worst outbreak of the pandemic we're going to talk about all this with former fda commissioner dr. scott gottlieb that's next. "squawk box" coming right back and strengthen client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.
xi jinping, said china must not relax its covid and prevention measures millions in shanghai remain under strict lock down joining us now is dr. scott gottlieb he also serves on boards of pfizer and alumina you've made the point even in this country the reported cases are i don't know probably exponentially higher over in china. we probably even know less about what's actually happening. how off are numbers we're seeing right now, scott >> well, extremely off so far they've reported about 300,000icateses. they say they have no deaths and one hospitalization, one severe case we know that's not true. and we can assume they're dramatically undercounting the number of cases they have there. if you just read the reports from "the wall street journal" and other outlets we know there have been severe cases we know there's been deaths. this is brutal measure they're taking in shanghai and going to
make it even more difficult fo them to control this outbreak as it spreads to other cities because a lot of chinese residents aren't going to want to self-identify they have covid symptoms now, so this is going to spread furtively before it spreads in other cities. i think they've done themselves a real disservice with there's no mass vaccination effort under way right now basically their only tactic is these brutal measures they're taking in shanghai and a with a highly contagious variant like omicron it's just not possible to snuff out these fires. >> i don't mean to be cynical, but they're willing to sacrifice a lot of elderly people for the purpose of -- of what? the way -- and will we know? if it burns through elder care facilities would we know about that or we have to get some kind of -- we just have to piece it
together >> well, we've seen some reporting that's in fact what's happening. it's just not in the official reporting but we've seen reporting from journalists on the ground in shanghai but it's hard for journalists to move around right now again, if you look at what happened in hong kong, that really is the outcome i think that's going to be suffered, unfortunately, by the people in these cities in china where you're going to have a very high case fatality rate because omicron while it's a less virulent strain of covid, it's less virulent in our population because we had a lot of baseline immunity it is more contagious, so if it had been as virulwant as delta, we would have a had a much worse outcome here this is going to be very dangerous and we saw that in hong kong with the case fatality rate about 5%. it was worse than pre-vaccine london and new york city >> will it overwhelm the health care system in china for older
folks? >> they clearly are concerned they're going to exhaust their capacity they're building a lot of quarantine hotels as well. i think it certainly has the potential to do that remember this is spreading right now. we're just not seeing it because it's spreading in-house holds. when you cane fine people to their homes they don't stop spreading the virus if they're infect they just spread to the people within the home. and i doubt too many people are picking up the phone and self-identifying they have covid symptoms right now because they know they're going to be put in a place they could be kept for a very long time and denied basic services so i think people aren't self-identifying with infection.
plus there's nothing to offer them the chinese government has not stockpiled therapeutics. there's really nothing to offer you except a quarantine hotel. >> scott, this in epidemiology research is there anything in the past that would indicate a mutant variant could be not only more infocus but would it be more virulent or is that not in the virus' best interest if it kills the host do we need to worry about that >> we do need to worry about that remember it just -- it can kill you but just can kill you at day nine it means it'll keep you alive long enough to propagate the virus but that leaves room for the virus to become more virulent and dangerous right now we see most of the mutations emerging within the
omicron variant there's these variants spreading in botswana, south africa right now now, if you've been infected with omicron presumably you're going to have antibodies that are cross reactive with this new virus, but what we're seeing is itmitate within the omicron lineage, now that spells good news and bad news. the bad news is it's continuing to mutate in a very fast rate, faster than the fastest flu. the good news is we're seeing the evolution within the omicron lineage. we're not seeing dijurjant evolution and the longer we go without it where we see a very divergent strain emerge, the more it's likely to see this is going to mutate, and that would argue in favor of eventually transitioning the raxeens to an omicron backbone vaccine
>> i appreciate it this is episodic and we were on like season 4 already and it's going to be like the simpsons hope fall not. when we come back, should congress be doing more to help consumers or less? we have congressional members u'om both sides of this debate yore watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc flexshares etfs are built with advanced modeling. to fill portfolio gaps and target specific goals. strengthening client confidence in you.
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good morning jp morgan earnings falling on slow down in deals and trading, and ceo jamie dimon bracing for higher risks ahead delta airlines taking flight, raising guidance on what it calls all-time high demand plus breaking economic news. the march producer price index 30 minutes away. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. andrew is off today. u.s. equity futures at this hour you can see up about 42 now. what happened? we were up 200 about a half hour
ago. morgan is not helping. >> closer to the inflation numbers and makes everyone a little nervous >> position squaring and getting ready for ppi. prgs pi is the producer price -- are you comfortable saying pp now or do you say producer prices >> just to make it clear when you use all these acronyms. >> our team of cnbc reporters standing by on the day's top stories. leslie picker is covering the banks. wow, this is an important day. we've got a little rebox going here mike santoli is following the markets as he does every day leslie, let's start with you at jp morgan.
>> that's right, jp morgan is definitely contributing to some of that weakness we're seeing. sounding the alarm about economic risks that came out about an hour ago. at least in the short-term he sees, quote, significant geopolitical and economic challenges ahead due to high inflation, supply chain issues and the war in ukraine decided $1.5 billion as a provision for credit losses driven by what jp morgan described as the increasing probability of down side risks due to theflation, the war in ukraine and accounting for russia associated ukraine exposure a year ago jp morgan was releasing billions of dollars in reserves jp morgan shares currently trading about 2% lower in premarket, 2.5% lower in premarket. black rock chairman larry fink also hinting at some of the challenges dimon did
he's quoted in their release saying, quote, as the world continues to face geopolitical and economic uncertainty our investments over the years positions us well. the firm's assets under management tick back down below $10 trillion to market volatility, but it was still equal to rake in about $86 billion during the quarter shares of that company are trading higher about 0.4, 0.2% this morning jp morgan, black rock shares pretty volatile. >> see you're on the beat, leslie got to be the rest of this week, right? >> yeah. it's -- you know it's interesting. because it is my first time as the official banking reporter to cover these. but just in talking to analysts and investors they say this quarter is paramount for not just bank had vestors but for investors as a whole because you do get that sense of really what
bank ceos, bank executives are thinking about the economy jamie dimon kicking it off potentially as a barometer what's to come i expect to hear more about that on the call which begins in about 25 minutes and expect to hear more as the week progresses >> we'll be here then. the so if you need to break into normally scheduled prac we can do that. we're flexible let us know. >> i'll let you know let's get now to the airlines we heard from delta ceo ed bastian in the last hour phil lebeau joins us with had loths from that. shares of delta moving higher premarket, up 5% this is really about the guidance they were better than expected, a narrower than expected loss thaf than $1.23.
look at what the company is expecting, a profitable quarter to begin with, double digit revenue growth, double digit profit margins many analysts were expecting single digit profit margins and strong precash flow. here's ceo ed bastian a few minutes ago talking about the outlook. >> the demand is phenomenal. we've never seen in our company's history demand for our services we had the highest sales in terms of bookings of any month in our history >> and it's not just that there's strong demand as you take a look at shares of delta but the fact people booking tickets right now increasingly they're seeing people opting for the premium cabin, paying up, if you will as opposed to saying get me the main cabin experience guys, we're going to hop on the delta conference call. this is the beginning of airline earnings
let's see what the other airlines, if there's some sort of a residual effect here as people look at what the airlines are expecting for the second quarter into the summer. guys, back to you. >> you talked to them at the end about the new plan that they have going to reserve more space for those premium classes, business class, first class. that almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy at some point. >> true. well, look, it's a finite space, becky, so there will be fewer main cabin seats what's interesting they have noticed because during the pandemic you had so many people who were telecommuting, if you will, or not being on the road or getting back on the road, they have decided i am going to pay up whether i'm going for business or leisure i want more space, everything that goes along with the premium experience relative to what perhaps they may have booked in the past which was the
main cabin >> phil, thank you >> investors are watchingthe start of earnings season in this week's inflation data. mike santoli joins us from the nyse hey, mike. >> market a big picture way kind of laboring a range within a range. couple of weak days brought it down to the really lower end of this kind of interior. so 4,400 to 4,600, call if, that's where we spent most of the time over the last couple of months the bigger one 48. and inintraday lows around 4,800. i think it's relevant this market has spent very little time below the late january lows which is in the 4,200 range. whether that's a net positive or not deferring that remains to be seen a mix of hot and cold sectors. it's mostly been about the stock
weighing on inindexes and a selective mix internally take a look here at the two. year note yield of course right in the focus of ininflation and the fed story. and remember bending the curve, wanting to flatten the curve for covid, everyone is looking to flatten the curve for inflation, and this embeds a lot of fed expectations it was about 2.6 a week ago. yesterday somewhat soft core inflation number took almost a projected hike of quarter point hike out of the anticipated level of tightening that the market is currently pricing in so we'll see if that lasts or this is just the bond market easing back after really getting oversold for a while banks and semis, bellwether groups basically back to where we were 13 months ago on both indexes here now, that's not great necessarily in terms of what it says about the economy or risk appetites. however, if you do get any sense
out here we're not really at a recession risk, these are areas probably going to get more direct relief. >> flattening the curve is one thing, we don't want to invert the curve, do we, in talking about the yield curve? >> we're going too different curve. you want it flatten the inflation curve. first of all we've been steepening, which is kind of interesting. and the way we were yesterday is the short end going down so basically saying maybe the fed -- and i don't think it's about the fed being less aggressive in the next two, three meetings it's much more after that how far it has to go it does seem the fed has urgency to get the short end up towards neutral pretty quickly and then wait and see >> right, right. yeah, it's almost as if every time companies get to talk about what kind of economy they see it kind of makes it -- yeah, it kind of makes an inverted yield curve look kind of like it's not -- not based on reality or
something. versus 2019 never seen demand going back to 2019 like this >> so many parts of the economy running hot, and yeah, exactly doesn't seem we have the stag part of the stagflation here >> is bitcoin up here? we just had that and i saw it below 40, again, and we are watching that. it's an important level, so we should check that. >> and much like these sectors it's back to where it first traded three months ago. when we come back, rising consumer prices and what washington should or shouldn't try to do about it llere's a debate on capitol hi we'll bring it to you when "squawk box" comes right back.
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curbing gas prices, and as the country grapples with skyrocketing prices wave been talking to those on capitol hill about what congress can do to help joining us now -- come up with a good moniker, that's a good start -- republican congresswoman glen moore is with us i was kind of joking about that. it is partly putin obviously also georgia republican congressman buddy carter what do you attribute it to, congresswoman? would you say how much of it is putin, how much of it just is supply chain issues after reopening from the pandemic and all the stimulus for the last few years sloshing around? that's part of it, too >> thanks for having me and really good to be here with my good friend from georgia let me say that i want to remind people that the problems we were having with inflation are global and i also want to talk about
the fact we're not out of the pandemic the pandemic has had an impact on everyone in the world as a matter of fact, as we speak shanghai is shutdown, and philadelphia is reimposing mask mandates i haven't taken my mask off, quite frankly, as i see cases rise and so i think that we have to acknowledge while people want tablame it on biden, they want to blame it all on putin, that there are numbers of factors and the thing i sort of resent the most is the implication that somehow rescuing people from the misery index during the heyday of the pandemic, saving people from addiction, saving the restaurant industry and providing unemployment checks to people somehow was the major driver of inflation. this is a global phenomenon, and
it's hitting everyone in the world. with regard to gas prices, certainly this war in and in ukraine has not -- we have not seen the full impact of that i think gas prices may indeed rise more. and again, that's a global phenomenon and then as we -- >> congresswoman carter, all good points. the it is global the entire globe had to deal with the pandemic and the supply chain issues that came from the pandemic the entire world is dealing with the invasion of ukraine as well. what specifically do you think the biden administration is going to be held accountable for this, can what can we do in this country to try to alleviate the pain we're feeling here. >> first of all we can do all we
can and you can try as you may to deflect the blame on other people, but the truth is that this is a result of the policies of the biden administration. and, you know, i'm a health care professional the number one thing we subscribed to the hippocratic oath, do no harm too much government money out in the economy right now. had the government spends more, you get less that's what we're witnessing right now. we also need to stop the pause on student loans we also need to encourage investment in our private innovation with our private companies. that needs to happen and most of all we need to work together republicans and democrats to balance our budget. that's why i've introduced the paid act, the paid act is paying americans inflationary debt. we need to take the billions of dollars in unspent funds in the american rescue plan and put them toward retiring our debt.
>> congresswoman, there is is a bit of truth we're not totally out of this but then we do hear time and time again from business people about how strong the economy is right now, and if it is strong and there's a lot of demand it doesn't make a lot of sense to keep flooding it with more stimulus you think we should be doing pieces of build back better and raising taxes on sectors that are already compromised by higher prices? >> let me say this to representative carter who is a health care professional, you know, one of the ways we can help people deal with theflation is to reduce their health care costs. we passed a deal just recently that would -- would have insulin maximum cost me $35 a month.
some people pay 4, $500 a month for ipslen which is lifesaving i mean, that's part of the plan. that's part of the so-called build back better plan that we were trying to initiate. and i think that dog really don't hunt, that somehow the stimulus is the sole cause of our having these inflationary prices, but i think it's important to have that as an excuse if you're in georgia or if you're in wisconsin, and you have to explain to your constituents why you didn't help them when they had maxed out their credit cards trying to get through not just the delta covid but this recent omicron outbreak in february that you didn't help restaurant workers get back on their feet i think this really dull hunt
when you look at the supply chain problems, which in fact were global. i will agree that we can look at more production of things like semiconductors so we're not depending on having another break down in the supply chain with regard to energy costs, you know, i -- i feel it you know, my constituents complain about the cost of gas they complain about the cost of food going up. but i want to remind people, you know, that ukraine is called the bread basket of europe and 85% of the wheat in egypt is from ukraine so i think that while we see higher inflation costs in this country and around the world we have got to look at this in a global way and i do think that president
biden and this administration are doing everything they can to stem this cost recently had a call for ethanol, more ethanol gas releasing gas from the strategic oil reserves we're working on it. >> thank you check your voice mail. i hope it's not really serious, and congressman carter, you're a pharmacy guy we don't have time to get into it but let's have you both back on and continue this conversation thank you both, and gwen thanks, see u.yo coming up economic news. and the price index just minutes away we'll be right back. actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients
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china fighting the latest wave of covid cases there with strict lock down rules eunice yun joins us live from beijing with what's happening. >> hey, becky. shanghai police are designated a covid lock down violations as criminal offenses. so now you could be held criminally responsible if you leave your house and you live in a high risk area, if you refuse a covid test, or if you post what the authorities consider to be fake information or videos about the covid lockdowns.
this all comes as president xi jengpening has been quoted as saying that zero covid is the best plan for shanghai and just in the past hour state radio was quoted as him saying there'll be no relaxation for covid controls for china obviously there have been plenty of costs on the economy. we had evidence of that in the march trade data the imports came in at a first decline since august of 2020 a lot of the that because of the slowing demand and also, becky, as we've been togging about there's been a cost on the public psyche. so actually right now at 8:30 in china so there was supposed to be a gala shanghai state tv was going to hold with a lot of celebrities to celebrate the progress that's been made in containing the outbreak however the public criticism and mocking has been so fierce about this event that the organizers canceled it. >> wow eunice, thank you.
we appreciate all your up dades on this. we've got some breaking economic news coming here up next we've got the march producer price index and the instant market reaction. dow futures down by 33 now s&p off by 1.5 and nasdaq off by 14 points. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words... etoro.the power of social investing. [sound of helicopter blades] in other words... ugh... they found me. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people have their money just sitting around doing nothing... that's bad, they shouldn't do that. they're getting crushed by inflation. well, i feel for them. they're taking financial advice from memes.
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negative after we're up almost 200 points on the dow all in anticipation of what's happening, i don't know. people do things with their positions, getting ready for a number like this rick santelli and steve liesman are standing by. and you're at the ready. you guys prepared you don't have asset positions but -- >> hey, joe, the dog didn't eat my homework. putin didn't eat my homework let's get onto these numbers all right, the march read on the wholesale side of inflation the producer price index month over month change expected up, wroom, zoom, zoom this is a new all-time high for the series the previous of course 2022 up 1.2. now if we strip out food, energy and trade expected up 1.5,
almost double that another hot one up 0.9, but it avoided a noof cycle high which is 1% in january '21 so missed it by a ten. on the year over year numbers, i don't see year over year headline number expected to be 10.6 don't see it, folks if you strip out energy that's a new high and finally ex-food, energy and trade up 6.6 the only one i don't have as i said, folks, is the year over year final demand, just final year over year number. so if anybody sees that maybe they can pull it out up about 3 basis points, new zealand getting aggressive we have a four-day weekend in
europe, three-day weekend in the u.s. and i don't think i would be surprised to see some trimming on positions here we go, finally, finally 11.2% is that first year over year number on ppi and that's a new all-time high. the previous cycle was february '22 up 10% pretty much only one metric risk in terms of cycle highs and all hotter than expected i'm sure this going to be blamed for everything other than what it is except supply issues but more than anything some of our philosophical issues regarding trade have come back to haunt us and allowed nefarious activity to move on throughout the globe. >> you're free to use nefarty, but i continued nefarty and found it had been used in "the
washington post," which as you know lights up the entire world with transparency. >> wait, wait, they used that in "the washington post"? didn't someone ban the use of that word? maybe they allowed it to come back i'm with you >> no, there's no darkness there, all light and goodness. steve, mostly even with the cpi there were a couple of things that look like they were moderating in recent weeks anything good at all here that wasn't hotter than expected? >> yeah, one thing let me get to that in just a second, joe. this is why i was a bit unwilling yesterday to declare peak inflation because there's still plenty of inflation up the pipeline here and that's where the concern is when i look at, for example, intermediate goods it's the stage before the headline number remember rick said it was 11% year over year well, check out intermediate which is 21% plus.
there's still a ton of pressure up the pipeline. we have crude food prices up nearly 13% there's still a ways to go, joe, to work through i think what happened in russia and ukraine on top of the previous high prices that we already had, and now you've had the lock downs in china. we had reports earlier this week about troubles in -- you know, in citrus and all kinds of commodities -- agricultural commodities out there. i still think there's a way to go through to work what we've had. that's why i'm not necessarily ready to say peak inflation just yet. it goes down from the producer to consumer in some measure. some of it could come from profit margins and some to pass along to the consumer. maybe that decline was reaching a limit for how far consumers would go, but we're going to have to reach and find those limits in all sorts of
categories before we get there >> fisophically in trade issues what were you talking about there? >> well, we've been trying to kick out fossil fuels before we have all the welcome mats for the replacements it's a really bad idea we're doing the same thing, by the way, with evs. we're trying to push a whole new sector of technology when we can't even procure all the different minerals that are going in batteries so the big story today is "the wall street journal. gm is trying to source cobalt. ford is trying to source cobalt. are any of these sources in the u.s., nay nay, i say we're making the same mistakes again. elon musk is right we have to get economies of scale. the problem is nobody in the u.s. want to do any money. they'd like to do the same thing to mining they've done to fossil fuels at a time when mining is something we need big time if you're going to go the ev route. none of it makes any sense to
me i still say the best way to go is make any car that runs on gas dual fuel for natural gas. we have a lot of it. it's clean i hear all the belly aching but it is relatively clean, and i did a conversion ten years ago, it's not that complicated. all you do it yourselfers, get a wrench out and open the garage door, go to youtube and cnbc.com, i'll show you how to do it to your own car. >> it strikes me this is a place where the government could get involved and rick, don't freak out before i say this it strikes me one industry doesn't necessarily talk to the other. how does the mining industry know or learn the battery industry is going to have demand for "x" amount of lithium and rare earth metals? >> are they hiding under a lithium rock >> it just strikes me they don't necessarily coordinate this stuff. for example, if we're going to run all these cars on electricity is the utility industry ready to provide this
electricity? i agree with you basically this is poor planning i just wonder if the government might have directed its efforts not to doing it for business but maybe guiding and otherwise helping out meet demand. because i'm not sure that the industry on its own can see what's coming. >> you know what did the computer industry need to government to say, okay, here's what you do, you need to copy the ibm and make a laptop? i don't dismiss it no, no, that's a whole different thing. they didn't need to own the crop forever. things that are good, the economics work and people want to do things we're not in disagreement, steve. i just don't want to turn into china. >> i agree it's a valid point you don't want things being overrun like the texas energy grid was at one point. you don't want to hit that point on anything. so if you see from the big picture things are getting
stretched too thin it's probably worth jumping in on. gentlemen, thank you joining us right now to talk more about all this is the head of research investment committee and head of strategy of b of a securities 11.2% year over year for producer price inflation you saw the numbers yesterday. what the heck do you do in terms of investing in this environment? >> look, it's really tough and these pressures are very real. they're very serious for american companies because when you see headline, you know, ppi numbers like we just heard, 11%, that's got to impact the profit margins of companies we've had the view and, you know, in our research across the department investors should have higher cash levels this year they should have that cash ready to deploy ahead of what we deem to be a much more volatile year. it's important to note i think
with all the pressures on inflation and prices we haven't even see the impact yet of the lock downs in china and what that'll do to shipping and supply chains. so the first point i think is that it's a good moment to have higher cash levels, be a bit more cautious and prepare for volatility but i really appreciate this thing from my play book about what these shifts in the market today mean for longer term investment, in particular how you have to invest in resources, metals, mining and energy. >> we had a discussion yesterday with geoff curry from goldman sachs who was talking about just that he looks at it because they're capital constrained sectors. they haven't had enough capital to keep up with demand is that your play on this, too >> that's exactly right. we've been underinvesting in energy for five years. you can't just flip a switch and get all that back. same thing is true in mining i love the point on electric vehicles, and this has been a big topic of our recent
research we found that just to achieve any kind of goals on green technology, erk vs and otherwise would require $150 billion of cap x investment into mining per year over the next decade. and that's just for green tech fa technology there's no way to get that capacity without long-term commodity prices being higher to incentivize the market, to inceptvise private actors to make those investments the good news is these companies are profitable, efficient and deeply undervalued when we look at etfs trading at nine times earnings or xle our energy trading 12 times earnings these are vastly underpriced
relative to the market average if you look at hope driven these are still trading incredibly expensive. so i think there's an incredible opportunity today for investors to get involved in these resource companies ahead of what could be a decade for resource investment >> did you not get the memo, do you know him you guys ever sit in meetings together or anything we shouldn't be buying anything. >> well, no, that's why i lead with cash. that's the first point is that you have to be -- have capital ready to deploy. this isn'ting something to go all in on today. i think it's going to require multiple quarters and also require policy leadership whether it's green transition and it's something for multiple quarters not to be done in a moment but you have to have the cash ready to deploy >> chief investment strategist mike carter warned surging
consumer prices, it could mean economic down turn this year i think. have i got that right? >> and one of the economic data official measures end up looking like and it pays me to be more cautious i think the crucial thing investors is people used to deploying into things like technology may have to do a bit of a rethink prioritizing profits and free cash flow over simply the high growth stories decades past. >> the only thing with inflation at 9% plus we're talking about the consumer price infragz we saw yesterday, i mean that's a dangerous thing to keep cash sitting around because it's losing value on a daily basis just about >> reporter: it's true that's why i wouldn't go all the cash
i wouldn't be maximally defensive. you do have to stay in the market in a diversified way. like energy, like resources and materials, because these are generating free cash flow. energy, for example, pays incredibly well. so the thesis is basically invest today for the income and free cash flow, invest tomorrow for the policy catalyst, the deep value opportunity and recapitalization as everyone realizes we've got to do a lot more investing in the physical stuff that makes the economy work if we're going to achieve any of these big policy goals. >> the latest calculation 9.6% just based on the cpi numbers you've got 9.6% guaranteed return u.s. government bonds >> the one time when inflation is good, i guess >> keeps you from losing coming up cyclone -- yeah,
jim cramer refers to it as a cyclone at time. hut is a cyclone, do you know? >> it's a tornado when -- >> but what is it in a tail wind >> the charts are part of the cyclone system >> or it's a jim cramer. >> or it's the roller coaster out in brooklyn. >> right the ten-year yield right now up 2.72 yield has dropped a little. ayst tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc oh, that's wrong. what's wrong? your swing. that's terrible... you gotta put your knees into it, put your knees into it. that's too smooth. too smooth? watch this. ♪♪
welcome back to "squawk box. the futures right now more or less but the nasdaq a little better, strong up about 40 points or so let's get down to the new york stock exchange the two are different cpi versus the producer price index, jim. and liesman was hesitant to call peak inflation yesterday and saw some things things today that are still in the pipeline. >> i think there is. used cars, by the way, last month were really down but you know what, joe, i think you're right it's just not going to drop the way we want it so you have this ppi that shows you things are hot, but there's things that make it so it's less
hot, but less hot doesn't do it. these fed governors they come out and have another thing to say. >> saying negative things is maybe better than doing negative things maybe that's what they're thinking >> that's true you know what was the brightest thing we're hearing? that statistic you gave me about tiger woods. that's a positive. i don't want to fun of it but it delta call was terrific but at what point will they stop selling? >> thank pgas at southern hill where tiger woods has down well before and it's soon and not at the end of the year anymore.
>> although i did think 46 is not what it used to be in terms of -- >> well, look at me and jim. >> you guys are both fantastic -- >> hey, jamie dimon is much older than us. maybe people are starting to talk about -- a lot of gray hair >> jim, where listened when he was talking today how he sees the economy in the short-term and these longer term issues and they're boosting reserves watching not only what he says but what he does on this >> it wasn't a big boost i know people are expecting that these are going to cut, but, yes, and the nickel was bad, but that's a $30 billion buy back. aat what point do we say, listen, if he's so nervous about reserves why is he buying back
$30 billion? >> because jp morgan shares, they've not traded at levels like this to book. their stock is a lot cheaper relatively speaking. i don't want to sell the stock 128 but i understand the journalist call the journalists came out with a lot stories. it's weird, right? >> very weight. >> yeah. >> if we are at peak inflation this would be an unbelievable stock to buy if you're not you say let it come down. and i don't want to look at jpmorgan and ignore the fact that it's come down a great deal the charters are saying it's going to $100. >> we are going to be continuing -- we have a couple of peek of people to talk about peak inflation after the two data points. >> stay on it. stay on it. >> yeah. and another conference
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welcome back producer prices 11.2% from a year ago the biggest gain on record jamie dimon warning inflation and ukraine are powerful forces that threaten the economy joining us now is data petersen and chief investment at bleakly advisory group and cnbc contributor. dana, i get the feeling you might be a little more saying, i mean, you're worried about ukraine. we all are but just in terms of whether we're getting close to peak inflation. i think you think it might be possible peter, i think you see no signs of a respite in what is pretty hot inflation right now. is that fair, dana
we think inflation gauges can continue to rise certainly the risks are toward higher inflation, certainly, with commodity prices. ukraine and oil and energy and metals and food. also supply chain disruptions associated with the war as well as the pandemic. i think we can see higher prices coming. >> very concerning to you? because, you know, the name of peter's firm is bleakly. he has a bleak view of the world. there are some positive things that you point to, though, dana, as well. that's the consumer and labor and everything else. what do you think the overriding -- what do you think wins much higher inflation or just pretty solid backdrop for overall economic growth? >> well, we're hoping that ultimately the consumer wins so that consumers can weather the increases in prices. but we have pulled into our
forecast softer growth this year coming off from 5.6% last year to 3% this year. still among the recession as the labor market is doing very well, consumers have income and most people are working consumers have savings and so there's still some demand out for for housing that can help onsumption. >> see, that's not that bleak, peter. you feel much more bleak than that, are you not? >> well, on a rate of change basis, it's very possible that the consumer price index is top down because the comparisons get tougher from here. i think on the good side with respect to consumer prices, we probably have peaked out and i know jim mentioned earlier used car prices you had to listen to the car max conference call yesterday talking about how these high prices are now slowing sales on the service side with respect to consumer price inflation, that should still accelerate rents still need a lot of time to catch up. they're only running about half
of what is ing in the real world where rents are rising about 10% plus and apls is calculating 4.5. on the producer side, i think tfls a reminder the rate of change may have topped out, inflation will remain rather persistence. now it's beginning to impact the demand side with consumers, it ties into the stagflationary type of situation. >> i think i saw a note you put out separate from your appearance here. you said little respite was seen in the ppi data. >> and i think that how it gets reconciled between persistence, wholesale inflation and possibly peaking in consumer price inflation is that companies will have to start eating margin. margins, as of q4 hit a record high and i think it's easy to argue now it's topped out. both from a labor market perspective because wages keep going up and also from an input
cost perspective that it's the business self that has to start eating the margins. >> dana, can you comment on that we've seen businesses be good citizens because we hear from one side of the aisle that a lot of inflation that we're seeing is they've been not only have they not eaten into margins they've been boosting margins as they've been able to raise prices they have to be careful about that because they're being watched closely. would you agree with that? >> well, we hear from ceos every day it's not really the case of corporate greed here it's the fact input prices are rising wangs are accelerating certainly as many businesses try to find good labor and keep great workers. also, costs for raw materials and intermediate goods are all rising so for many usinesses, they ar forced to transfer some of the debt to the customer via supply
chains or consumers. i don't think it's necessarily about corporations trying to preserve margins, of course they want to. it's also because they have these constraints and pressures on them >>well, whether it gets past the line of consumers or whether it gets -- whether it hurts margins and then it hurts earnings none seems like it's very good, does it? peter? we didn't appreciate the disinflation for 35 or 40 years >>well, from an investing standpoint, it compressions the multiple then the other side of the equation with respect to where stocks go is where earnings end up. earnings estimates haven't changed that much. but i don't think that can last much longer. i think they begin to come down. >> all right excellent. we're almost out of time about 30 seconds left total. dana, peter, thank you.
>> all right let's get a look at the futures after we got the cpi number hotter than expected 11.2% year over year we saw the futures come down into negative territory. dow down by about 35 points. nasdaq up by 14. take a look at the 10-year note. the inflation numbers were higher than amended, the yield is below where it was. that does it for us today. we'll see you tomorrow right now time for "squawk on the street." good wednesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber some push and pull on futures. ppi runs hot up 11.2 year on year we have oil above $102 jpmorgan resulting shares unde